#  >  > Living And Legal Affairs In Thailand >  >  > Thailand and Asia News >  >  > Business, Finance & Economics in Thailand >  >  Thai currency continues upward trend

## StrontiumDog

Thai currency continues upward trend : National News Bureau of Thailand

Thai currency continues upward trend

BANGKOK, 20 August  2010 (NNT) - The Thai currency this morning opened  at 31.54-31.56 THB  against the USD with speculation that constant  capital inflow will  continue the trend. 

Financial analysts of the Bank of Ayudhya reported this morning that the   Thai baht opened at 31.54-31.56 THB per USD, close to yesterdays   closing and following last night's disappointing US economic figures.  

The Thai baht has been forecasted to hit 31.50 THB today, shifting   within the narrow range of 31.45-31.60 THB against the USD. Investors   are advised to monitor foreign money inflow, which may push the Thai   currency even higher. 

The Japanese yen now stands at 85.34-85.41 JPY per USD while the Euro is at 1.2811-12814 USD per EUR.

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## Mid

*BoT warned not to  intervene in baht currency*
                                                                                        Rungkarn  Rujiwarangkul

*BANGKOK,* 21 August  2010 (NNT)  An academician warns the Bank of Thailand (BoT) not to  further intervene in the baht value, citing a speculation threat in a  long run. 

Mr Teerana Bhongmakapat, lecturer at the Faculty of Economics of  Chulalongkorn University, explained that the appreciation of the Thai  baht was caused by the weakening of the US dollar, the Japanese yen, and  the euro. He said the BoT had been holding a significant amount of  foreign assets as international reserve in an effort to control the  currency movement. He then suggested the central bank to consider  stopping its interference before it posed an adverse impact on the  system. 

Mr Teerana said foreign investors would use this opportunity to buy up  assets and speculate on the low interest and the exchange rate. They  would then sell off these assets when the BoT stops holding the currency  and would thus enjoy the gains generated from the rate difference. A  number of investors have already invested their capital to stock up on  treasury bonds and securities over the past few weeks.  

The currency intervention can also suppress the domestic interest rate,  especially the deposit interest, leading to many disadvantages in a long  run.                               

thainews.prd.go.th

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## StrontiumDog

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255308240003

Korn: THB strengthens in same direction with other currencies 
 

BANGKOK,  24 August 2010 (NNT) – The Thai baht currency is confirmed to move in  line with other currencies in the region despite concerns for its  ongoing strong appreciation, according to Finance Minister Korn  Chatikavanij.  

The Minister brushed aside the news report that the baht was  appreciating the most in the region, saying the Malaysian Ringgit  actually appreciated even stronger than the baht. He reaffirmed that the  baht was moving in line with other currencies in the region. 

Mr Korn explained that the majority of currencies in the region had been  appreciating because of the depreciating US dollars. He noted that Thai  baht had been appreciating for years, and it did not affect exporters  much because other currencies were also moving in the same direction. 

The Minister, however, indicated that the purchasing power of trading  partners should rather be monitored closely because their economic  slowdown would indeed affect the Thai export sector.  

As for risk factors for Thailand in the latter half of 2010, Mr Korn  believed that they would come from external factors rather than internal  ones.

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## StrontiumDog

*Finance minister expects baht to continue strengthening
*

*Finance minister expects baht to continue strengthening*


  วันพุธ ที่ 25 ส.ค. 2553 

   

   BANGKOK, Aug 25 – Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij on Tuesday  predicted that the Thai baht will continue strengthening, but the trend  will not affect Thailand’s export competitiveness because other  currencies in the region are moving in the same direction.

 “Undeniably, the baht has appreciated for a year and is very likely to continue strengthening,”  he said.

 What could have an impact on Thailand’s exports is the demand for purchases by its trading partners.

 He said the current global economy is not as bad as in the previous two years, but it had not recovered as forecast earlier.

 Since early this year, the baht has already strengthened by 5 per cent. (MCOT online news)

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## StrontiumDog

*Bangkok Post : Korn: Stronger baht won
*
*Korn: Stronger baht won’t hurt exports*
Published: 26/08/2010 at 04:09 PMOnline news: Local News
 The increase in the repurchasing rate by another  0.25 percentage points would not have much impact on the export sector,  Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said on Thursday afternoon.

 The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee yesterday decided to  increase the key policy rate from 1.50 per cent to 1.75 per cent.

 Mr Korn admitted that the increase in the key policy rate would  result in the baht’s further appreciation, but said the Thai currency’s  current value is in line with foreign currencies of other Asian  countries.

 The minister was confident that a stronger baht would not hurt the trade competitiveness of Thai manufacturers.

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## StrontiumDog

*http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/loca...see-baht-value
*
*PM: Govt to oversee baht's value*
Published: 27/08/2010 at 02:44 PMOnline news: Economics
 The government will oversee the value of baht to  prevent it  fluctuating too much, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said  on Friday  afternoon.

 “Relevant state agencies will introduce needed measures to stabilise   the value of the Thai currency, but will not act against the money   market’s mechanism. We have already experienced an expensive lesson from   doing so in the past,” said Mr Abhisit.

 The prime minister said the Bank of Thailand must oversee the baht's   value and interest rates to ensure they stay at appropriate levels and   in line with the changing situation. Any decision to adjust the policy   rate must be made carefully as the central bank is also duty-bound to   curb  inflation.

 He had discussed the economic situation with the Office of the   National Economic and Social Development Board and  believed the current   inflation rate is controllable. Inflation is unlikely to be higher  than  the current level.

 Mr Abhisit said even though the economy would grow at a slower pace  in  the second half of the year,  the growth rate could be higher than   seven per cent this year. He projected   economic expansion would slow   down to  four to five per cent next year.

 Asked if the government would allow manufacturers to raise prices of   their products due to higher production costs, Mr Abhisit said the   Ministry of Commerce would propose the matter for consideration by the   cabinet at next week’s meeting.

 “Consideration of whether to allow price increases will not be based   mainly on cost of production as other factors would also be taken into   account,” he said.

 Asked whether the increase in prices  could lead to an increase in  the  minimum wage rate, the prime minister said it is possible the daily   wage would be raised - either before or at the same time as the salary   of government servants is increased.

 Civil servants have been promised a rise of five per cent in basic salaries next April.

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## StrontiumDog

Thai currency will appreciate, with more foreign inflows into Asian region, according to experts : National News Bureau of Thailand

Thai currency will appreciate, with more foreign inflows into Asian region, according to experts

BANGKOK, 30 August  2010 (NNT) — Financial experts from the Bank of  Ayudhya say that the  Thai currency will continue to appreciate, opening  at 31.31-32 THB/USD  today, the same as last week’s closing. 

This rise is attributed to the latest figures of the US’ GDP, which has   prompted other major currencies to strengthen against the greenback,   while depreciating the USD.  

The Baht opened the morning trading session at 31.29-30 against the USD,   practically unchanged from last Friday’s closing.  Experts have   expressed confidence that foreign investors will turn to investing more   in the Asian stock markets, forcing all regional currencies to   appreciate; as seen in Malaysia, Singapore, India, Indonesia and Korea.   

Meanwhile, the EUR is pegged at 1.2745/27/50 USD/EUR from last week’s close of 1.2711/2716 USD/EUR. 

Experts predicted that the Baht will move in the range of 31.25 to 31.35   but downplay speculation that it might go as low as 31.25, saying it  is  unlikely as it already dropped considerably last week.

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## StrontiumDog

Thai currency records new high in 26 months : National News Bureau of Thailand

Thai currency records new high in 26 months

BANGKOK, 1 September 2010 (NNT) — The Thai currency has peaked,  recording its new high for the past 26 months, at 31.21 THB/USD. 

According to financial experts from the Bank of Ayudhya, the Thai baht is expected to appreciate further.  

 The Thai currency opened at 31.26-27 THB/USD this morning, up a notch   from its yesterday's closing of 31.28-30 THB/USD. According to experts,   the movement of the Thai currency is in line with others in the region.   

As the signs of the economic recovery in Australia, China and India are   getting clearer; they have become the deciding factors for foreign   investors to invest in the region. Even at the time when the regional   markets are considered overbought, investors have no better places to   put their money in, experts said. 

 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) yesterday intervened in the foreign exchange   market, buying the baht to shore up its rate at 31.29 THB/USD, after  it  showed sign of weakening earlier.  

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen is valued at 84.31-41 JPY/USD, slightly   appreciating from the previous closing of 84.45-50 JPY/USD, while the   Euro currency is traded at 1.2680-2682 USD/EUR, slightly depreciating   from yesterday's close of 1.2695-2697 USD/EUR.

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## larvidchr

> Thai currency records new high in 26 months : National News Bureau of Thailand
> 
> Thai currency records new high in 26 months
> 
> BANGKOK, 1 September 2010 (NNT) — The Thai currency has peaked,  recording its new high for the past 26 months, at 31.21 THB/USD. 
> 
> According to financial experts from the Bank of Ayudhya, the Thai baht is expected to appreciate further.  
> 
>  The Thai currency opened at 31.26-27 THB/USD this morning, up a notch   from its yesterday's closing of 31.28-30 THB/USD. According to experts,   the movement of the Thai currency is in line with others in the region.   
> ...


So the BOT is actively supporting an upward trend, that makes no sense at-all Thailand would benefit from a lower rate on the THB in the tourism and export market, while there are no big immediate benefits to society of a high THB. Just because the Dong, Ringit or Yuan goes up it does not necessarily mean that it is best for Thailand to go the same route, yet that seems to be their sole argument/excuse all the time, like children competing  :Confused:

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## phomsanuk

The baht is loosely tied to the yuan which the USA wants strengthened.

Two different excerpts,


The threat of a serious weakening of major currencies - which some analysts see as inevitable with the greenback falling below THB25:USD1 - is heightening these fears.

For all the concern over the $1.6 trillion US budget deficit and record debt load, the dollar is as valuable now as 35 years ago. Measured against a basket of currencies from the G-10 nations proportioned against each other, the greenback is up about 3 percent since 1975, according to the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Index. That was four years after the Bretton Woods agreement set up in 1944 to link currencies to gold, collapsed.


 :mid:

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## larvidchr

The BOT is protecting the few very very rich and the one supremely rich in Thailand it seems like, there is no logic to what they do other than that, only market forces from outside would ever see the THB go down, that is why the BOT have 3 times the reserves that Countries of similar size need's in foreign currency, rather than using some of all that money to improve much needed infrastructure, education ect in the country (a question also raised once in the foreign correspondents club at a meeting with the BOT gov.) No they sit on it so they can use it to protect the superrich against losses on the currency, that is the lesson learned from the "crash" of the THB in the nineties. No BOT governor would "literally" survive playing the THB down, since that would mean that the superrich in Thailand would loose billions, an unthinkable scenario!, the money policy of the Government and the BOT is not what serves the country Thailand best, but what serves the superrich Thai "elite" citizens best.

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## aging one

I must say I am liking it. I am buying a house back in America. In the last three months and still continuing is great for me. I need to change down 30,000 dollars to finish up my business. Three months ago that was a million baht, it is slowly creeping towards 930,000 baht.

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## Bangyai

> I must say I am liking it. I am buying a house back in America. In the last three months and still continuing is great for me. I need to change down 30,000 dollars to finish up my business. Three months ago that was a million baht, it is slowly creeping towards 930,000 baht.


Lucky you AO . Unfortunately, I'm in the boat heading for Klong Toei. In about 6 weeks time I'll need to transfer 20,000 pounds here for our new house. If I had done it at the begining of August I would have made almost 1,020,000. Now I'm down to about 950,000 ! Now if I were to sell our current home _first ,_ that would be a big help but then we'd have to rent temporary accomodation and make a double house move .... yuk  :Confused: 

At this rate I will be opening my new business venture soon, under a footbridge somewhere with a plastic cup. I'm considering training up our pooch into this line of work so I can open up 2 branches at once.

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## Butterfly

> The BOT is protecting the few very very rich and the one supremely rich in Thailand it seems like, there is no logic to what they do other than that, only market forces from outside would ever see the THB go down, that is why the BOT have 3 times the reserves that Countries of similar size need's in foreign currency, rather than using some of all that money to improve much needed infrastructure, education ect in the country (a question also raised once in the foreign correspondents club at a meeting with the BOT gov.) No they sit on it so they can use it to protect the superrich against losses on the currency, that is the lesson learned from the "crash" of the THB in the nineties. No BOT governor would "literally" survive playing the THB down, since that would mean that the superrich in Thailand would loose billions, an unthinkable scenario!, the money policy of the Government and the BOT is not what serves the country Thailand best, but what serves the superrich Thai "elite" citizens best.


you got it backward as usual larv, the rich aren't not enjoying the strong THB, quite au contraire, remember they are being paid in foreign currency, that is export for them

it's actually better for the poor, the BoT is trying to control inflation which is again out of control, and the poor are the first victims of such inflation. It's really a hard call. Oil is being paid in US, so a strong THB means lower gas price at the pump, something you can't ignore as the economic activity depends on oil. At the same time, a strong THB will "slow down" the export economy and since THB interest rates rose, this is also going to be a "slow down" for the non-export businesses. At the end, this will curb inflation but at what costs.

Either way, not an easy solution

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## larvidchr

If you make your money exporting you double loose right butterfly, you export less since your price is high, you earn less since your pay is in foreign currency, but I suggest the loss in export quantity costs more than the in that context relative smaller loss in the exchange rate. But the important part here is that it is a massive collective loss to Thailand in export revenue, taxes ect.

Now what you're missing (as usual) is that it is not all Thailands superrich that are making their money on exports especially the richest one of them all, secondly during the beginning of the world economic crisis a lot of Thai fortunes where moved from THB to overseas accounts, that money have largely come back, so the very rich Thais hold most of their billions in Thai stock, property and in Thai banks just like Thaksin did, something he probably regrets today, the very rich Thais day to day earnings on export is peanuts compared to the value of their holdings in THB cash and Thai stock and property Butterfly.

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## StrontiumDog

*http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/loca...inst-greenback
*
*Baht soars against greenback*

*Concerns mount over export-competitiveness * 

Published:  2/09/2010 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: NewsThe baht is continuing to gain ground against  the US  dollar, hitting a two-year high on continued foreign inflows into  the  Thai financial markets.




Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is due to meet with Finance Minister   Korn Chatikavanij, central bank governor Tarisa Watanagase and other   ministers today to discuss the rise in the currency.

 The baht, which traded at 31.1 to the US dollar yesterday, has gained   more than 6% against the greenback in the year to date, prompting   concerns among business leaders and policy makers about whether the   country would lose competitiveness in global export markets.

 The baht has been one of the strongest performers in the region this   year, ranking only behind the Japanese yen and Malaysian ringgit.

 In contrast, Vietnam's dong has fallen over 5.5% against the dollar following several devaluations in a bid to boost exports.

 Ms Tarisa said Thailand's exports had continued to grow despite the   baht appreciating faster than other currencies against the dollar.

 "Right now, we rank second in terms of currency appreciation in the region," she said yesterday.

 "Even so, exports have risen by as much as 30%, even though the stronger baht means lower revenues in baht terms."

 Exports have been the main driver of the economy this year, surging   37% year-on-year through the first six months to help push growth to   10.6% for the first half.

 Capital inflows from a trade surplus and investment have been a major   factor pushing the baht to appreciate, despite intervention by the   central bank that has pushed the country's foreign reserves up to record   levels of more than US$150 billion (4.7 trillion baht).

 Ms Tarisa said while the central bank was "monitoring" the situation   closely, exporters had to adjust to the changing environment by hedging   against currency risk, particularly given the weak recovery in the US   and European economies.

 Exports have already begun to slow in recent weeks, with July exports   of $15.47 billion down sharply from $17.9 billion the previous month.  Agricultural shipments, particularly of rice, were also down due to   growing competition from Vietnam and other countries.

 Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai said yesterday the export target  of  20% growth this year would be "definitely put in jeopardy" if the  baht  rose to as high as 30 baht to the dollar.

 She said the central bank should speed up efforts to adopt measures to stabilise the currency.

 Dusit Nontanakorn, the chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said   the private sector could tolerate a stronger baht so long as it moved   in line with other currencies in the region.

 "I think exporters already know to expect greater difficulty going forward due to higher foreign exchange risk," Mr Dusit said.

 The Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC), a group of 2,700   exporters, said export sectors such as agriculture would definitely   suffer from a stronger baht due to their relatively low import content.

 While a stronger baht hurts local firms selling abroad, imported  goods  such as oil, equipment and parts become cheaper in local terms.

 TNSC chairman Paiboon Polsuwanna said shrimp and chicken processors,   who export over 40 billion baht worth of goods a year, had import   content of just 15%, mostly in the form of animal feed.

 "Thai exporters are currently unable to compete with competitors in   the region, including those from Indonesia and Malaysia ... and not to   mention the Vietnamese, who have benefited from several rounds of   devaluations," said Mr Paiboon, a former head of the Food Processing   Industry Club.

 "Exporters are now suffering every day with losses from sales. Our   margin is expected to come down significantly in the third quarter."

 Federation of Thai Industries chairman Payungsak Chartsutipol agreed   that it was important that the baht moved in line with other currencies   in the region.

 "Some of our members are now projecting the baht to reach 30 baht to   the dollar and are preparing their business plans accordingly," Mr   Payungsak said.

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## drawp

> Experts predicted that the Baht will move in the range of 31.25 to 31.35    but downplay speculation that it might go as low as 31.25, saying it   is  unlikely as it already dropped considerably last week.


It's now 31.17

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## Thaiguy

> Thai currency records new high in 26 months : National News Bureau of Thailand
> 
> Thai currency records new high in 26 months
> 
> BANGKOK, 1 September 2010 (NNT)  The Thai currency has peaked, recording its new high for the past 26 months, at 31.21 THB/USD. 
> 
> According to financial experts from the Bank of Ayudhya, the Thai baht is expected to appreciate further. 
> 
> The Thai currency opened at 31.26-27 THB/USD this morning, up a notch from its yesterday's closing of 31.28-30 THB/USD. According to experts, the movement of the Thai currency is in line with others in the region. 
> ...


Hope the Aussie Oxford stays up strong ( 28.97 this morning).

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## Butterfly

> If you make your money exporting you double loose right butterfly, you export less since your price is high, you earn less since your pay is in foreign currency, but I suggest the loss in export quantity costs more than the in that context relative smaller loss in the exchange rate. But the important part here is that it is a massive collective loss to Thailand in export revenue, taxes ect.
> 
> Now what you're missing (as usual) is that it is not all Thailands superrich that are making their money on exports especially the richest one of them all, secondly during the beginning of the world economic crisis a lot of Thai fortunes where moved from THB to overseas accounts, that money have largely come back, so the very rich Thais hold most of their billions in Thai stock, property and in Thai banks just like Thaksin did, something he probably regrets today, the very rich Thais day to day earnings on export is peanuts compared to the value of their holdings in THB cash and Thai stock and property Butterfly.


try harder  :rofl: 

and your obsession with the rich by trying to politicize the current currency swings has been duly noted  :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

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## StrontiumDog

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255309020018

FTI advises govt to control baht appreciation                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

BANGKOK, 2 September  2010 (NNT) – The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) suggests the  government to launch a measure to control Thai baht appreciation after  the currency has strengthened to the highest in 13 years as a result of  an excessive capital inflow in the past months. 

Chief Advisor to the FTI Board of Directors Santi Vilassakdanont said  the strengthening of the Thai currency had been influenced by several  factors but mainly the large amount of foreign capital that poured into  the Stock Exchange that raised the average trade value to over 40  billion THB per day. 

In the past few months, Thai baht has strengthened up by 5-6%. The trend  is expected to continue until it reaches 30 THB against USD. Mr Santi  reckoned that it should best stand between 32.50-33.00 THB to minimize  the risk on small business operators.  

The Chief Advisor urged the economic cabinet meeting held today to focus  on considering additional measures to slow the baht appreciation. Even  though Bank of Thailand’s interference effort is currently in place,  over-intervention may have adverse effect on international reserves.

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## StrontiumDog

Korn, Tharisa tasked to tackle baht rise at haste : National News Bureau of Thailand

Korn, Tharisa tasked to tackle baht rise at haste                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

BANGKOK, 2 September  2010 (NNT) – The Council of Economic Ministers has  assigned Finance  Minister Korn Chatikavanij and Bank of Thailand (BoT)  Governor Dr  Tharisa Watanagase to find measures to deal with the  rising baht  currency. 

Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Dr Trairong Suwannakhiri   indicated that the meeting of the Council of Economic Ministers today,   chaired by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, mainly discussed the   problem of Thai baht appreciation. He stated that Mr Korn and Dr Tharisa   were tasked with formulating pragmatic solutions to the issue and also   ensuring good economic conditions among entrepreneurs. 

However, Dr Trairong personally believed that the strong baht would not   affect the country’s overall economic growth, ensuring that the gross   domestic product (GDP) would expand beyond 7% for the whole year.

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## StrontiumDog

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255309020041

Commerce Min sets up a panel to prevent impact from baht appreciation                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

BANGKOK, 2 August  2010 (NNT) – The Commerce Ministry has set up a panel to solve the  impact on export from baht currency appreciation. 

According to the Commerce Ministry, the Thai currency strengthened by 3%  within these two months. The Commerce Ministry and the Federation of  Thai Industries (FTI) thus joined force to set up a panel to solve any  possible problem. 

The panel is tasked to compile a report on the impact of the stronger  baht currency toward Thai export sector, particularly among the export  products which used domestic materials such as agricultural and food  products.  

Measures to prevent any possible problem from the impact will also be  implemented. The panel operation is aimed to be concluded within two  weeks.  

FTI President said that the rapid increase of baht value resulted in  lower profit earned by exporters. Cost of agricultural products had  risen by 6-7%, while the competition with rivals remains tense. However,  he believed that the export this year would achieve the target set by  the Commerce Ministry.

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## StrontiumDog

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255309020043 

Korn: Baht rise to not affect national exports                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

BANGKOK, 2 September  2010 (NNT) – Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij confirms that the rising  baht currency will not affect Thai exports. 

Mr Korn stated that the meeting of the Council of Economic Ministers on  Thursday mainly discussed the problem of Thai baht appreciation, which  was still considered moderate and in line with the movements of other  regional countries. The Minister assured that the strengthening of the  Baht would have no impact on the export sector, reasoning that the total  export value had been satisfactory and seemed to be on the uptrend. 

Mr Korn also attributed the continuous rise of the Thai baht to the US’s  weakening economy and high public debt, which had lowered the  confidence of investors in holding the US dollar.  

Meanwhile, the Government also assigned the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to  closely monitor the strong baht for fear of speculation among investors  in the bond market. As a response, the central bank affirmed that  appropriate measures to deal with such an issue had been formulated.

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## RamboII

Let me know when its 30-1.   The house that I built 7 years ago for 5.7 million baht (and sitting empty, as I live in the U.S. for the next 5-10 years before probably moving back to Thailand) could be sold for as little as 4.275,000 baht, converted to dollars, and I would have the same dollar amount that I put into building it.

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## socal

> Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
> 
> 
> Thai currency records new high in 26 months : National News Bureau of Thailand
> 
> Thai currency records new high in 26 months
> 
> BANGKOK, 1 September 2010 (NNT)  The Thai currency has peaked,  recording its new high for the past 26 months, at 31.21 THB/USD. 
> 
> ...


No, the stronger the baht is, the cheaper oil, gas and food is for Thai's.

The thought that having a weak currency is good is a flawed keynesian theory that makes no sense.

The baht will continue to get stronger and the western currencies will continue to get weaker. Thailand is gaining real purchasing power and the west is losing real purchasing power.

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## socal

> The BOT is protecting the few very very rich and the one supremely rich in Thailand it seems like, there is no logic to what they do other than that, only market forces from outside would ever see the THB go down, that is why the BOT have 3 times the reserves that Countries of similar size need's in foreign currency, rather than using some of all that money to improve much needed infrastructure, education ect in the country (a question also raised once in the foreign correspondents club at a meeting with the BOT gov.) No they sit on it so they can use it to protect the superrich against losses on the currency, that is the lesson learned from the "crash" of the THB in the nineties. No BOT governor would "literally" survive playing the THB down, since that would mean that the superrich in Thailand would loose billions, an unthinkable scenario!, the money policy of the Government and the BOT is not what serves the country Thailand best, but what serves the superrich Thai "elite" citizens best.


No you are 180 degrees wrong, the high baht makes imports chaeper for Thai people. Exports are what you pay for imports.

With a higher baht, standards of living will rise in Thailand.  Thailand will be able to afford to export less.

If a low currency is so great then why don't you want one ?

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## socal

> Originally Posted by aging one
> 
> 
> I must say I am liking it. I am buying a house back in America. In the last three months and still continuing is great for me. I need to change down 30,000 dollars to finish up my business. Three months ago that was a million baht, it is slowly creeping towards 930,000 baht.
> 
> 
> Lucky you AO . Unfortunately, I'm in the boat heading for Klong Toei. In about 6 weeks time I'll need to transfer 20,000 pounds here for our new house. If I had done it at the begining of August I would have made almost 1,020,000. Now I'm down to about 950,000 ! Now if I were to sell our current home _first ,_ that would be a big help but then we'd have to rent temporary accomodation and make a double house move .... yuk 
> 
> At this rate I will be opening my new business venture soon, under a footbridge somewhere with a plastic cup. I'm considering training up our pooch into this line of work so I can open up 2 branches at once.


That is why a high baht is good for Thai's, they are getting richer and you are getting poorer.

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## taxexile

> the high baht makes imports chaeper for Thai people


ive yet to see any reductions in the prices of imported foods in the supermarkets, or reductions in any imported goods available in thai stores.

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## socal

> If you make your money exporting you double loose right butterfly, you export less since your price is high, you earn less since your pay is in foreign currency, but I suggest the loss in export quantity costs more than the in that context relative smaller loss in the exchange rate. But the important part here is that it is a massive collective loss to Thailand in export revenue, taxes ect.
> 
> Now what you're missing (as usual) is that it is not all Thailands superrich that are making their money on exports especially the richest one of them all, secondly during the beginning of the world economic crisis a lot of Thai fortunes where moved from THB to overseas accounts, that money have largely come back, so the very rich Thais hold most of their billions in Thai stock, property and in Thai banks just like Thaksin did, something he probably regrets today, the very rich Thais day to day earnings on export is peanuts compared to the value of their holdings in THB cash and Thai stock and property Butterfly.


If the Bahts purchasing power increases, then Thailand can afford to export less. Sure, exports will be less lucrative but that just means those businesses will contract  and the service and consumer economy within Thailand will expand.The reason the consumer and service economy will expand is because Thai people will have more disposable income because they will be paying less for commodities.

----------


## StrontiumDog

Nice, but the man or lady on the street isn't going to notice any real difference.....

And with inflation getting higher and higher....

----------


## socal

> the high baht makes imports chaeper for Thai people
> 			
> 		
> 
> ive yet to see any reductions in the prices of imported foods in the supermarkets, or reductions in any imported goods available in thai stores.


But have you seen any increases in prices of imported foods ? Probably not. 

And even if you did, as long as the baht in going up, prices are rising less for people earning baht.

----------


## socal

> Nice, but the man or lady on the street isn't going to notice any real difference.....
> 
> And with inflation getting higher and higher....


Inflation ????? INFLATION ?

If the baht is going up, that is DEFLATION.

Yes they will notice a difference. All the western expats have sure noticed that they are getting poorer and eventually the Thais will notice that they are getting richer. Every Thailand forum I have gone on, is full of expats bitching and groaning about the high baht, or in other words, their inflating western currency.

----------


## StrontiumDog

socal, see this 

https://teakdoor.com/business-finance...ml#post1544801

----------


## StrontiumDog

> Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
> 
> 
> Nice, but the man or lady on the street isn't going to notice any real difference.....
> 
> And with inflation getting higher and higher....
> 
> 
> Inflation ????? INFLATION ?
> ...


Domestic inflation is going up fairly rapidly....

And prices of imported goods wont go down much, if at all....this is Thailand....when do prices ever go down?

And for the average Thai consumer, salaries don't go up much......

They are being squeezed.

----------


## socal

> socal, see this 
> 
> https://teakdoor.com/business-finance...ml#post1544801


3.3% is nothing

 Just imagine how much worse it would be if the baht was falling by 15%.

----------


## socal

[quote=StrontiumDog;1544806]


> Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
> 
> 
> Nice, but the man or lady on the street isn't going to notice any real difference.....
> 
> And with inflation getting higher and higher....
> 
> 
> Inflation ????? INFLATION ?
> ...





> Domestic inflation is going up fairly rapidly....


3.3% is not out of control, easily manageable will interest rates.




> And prices of imported goods wont go down much, if at all....this is Thailand....when do prices ever go down?


If the baht is going up, that means prices are going up less for people earning baht and more for people earning dollars or euros. Its still a net gain for people earning baht.




> And for the average Thai consumer, salaries don't go up much......


If the baht is rising, salaries are going up because their currency has more value.

----------


## StrontiumDog

You appear to be applying western logic to Thailand. A fatal flaw...

----------


## Butterfly

> Inflation ????? INFLATION ?
> 
> If the baht is going up, that is DEFLATION.


must be that Austrian Economics education  :mid: 

socal, get a clue, the fight against local inflation is to have a stronger THB

3.3% is quite high and probably higer than official stats. In these days and age of low interest rates, it is quite high, maybe in terms you can understand, as high as 8% or 9% if were with "historically normalized" interest rates.

----------


## Butterfly

> If the baht is rising, salaries are going up because their currency has more value.


yes if the average population were buying western imports but that's hardly the case here  :mid:

----------


## aging one

Bass akwards is the term I would use to describe socals position on this.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> Inflation ????? INFLATION ?
> 
> If the baht is going up, that is DEFLATION.
> 
> 
> must be that Austrian Economics education 
> 
> ...


Somebody needs a clue here and it sure as hell aint me.

Deflation is a good thing, in case you didn't know.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> If the baht is rising, salaries are going up because their currency has more value.
> 
> 
> yes if the average population were buying western imports but that's hardly the case here


Thailand imports oil and a whole lot of other commodities.

----------


## socal

> Bass akwards is the term I would use to describe socals position on this.


Just because you don't understand, does not mean that I am "bass akwards".

I study macro economics, do you ?

----------


## StrontiumDog

> Originally Posted by Butterfly
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by socal
> ...


Where's the deflation?

DOMESTIC inflation is running at 3.3%. 

Working class Thai's don't buy expensive foreign goods. They buy local produce. 

Aso you appear to have forgotten how pricing works in Thailand, it never goes down. Do you really think importers are going to pass on the changes due to the currency changes? Hell no. They'll enjoy the increased profit margin. That's business for you here. 

I buy a lot of foreign goods, but the prices only go one way...up.

----------


## socal

> Bass akwards is the term I would use to describe socals position on this.


so low currencies are great in your mind ?

Is that what you want in your hoe country ?

----------


## StrontiumDog

> Originally Posted by aging one
> 
> 
> Bass akwards is the term I would use to describe socals position on this.
> 
> 
> Just because you don't understand, does not mean that I am "bass akwards".
> 
> I study macro economics, do you ?


You might study it, but you seem to forget the 'rules' don't necessarily apply here. 

You certainly seem unaware of what goes on here. Do you live in Thailand?

----------


## StrontiumDog

Thai baht continues appreciation : National News Bureau of Thailand

Thai baht continues appreciation

 

BANGKOK,  3 September 2010 (NNT) – The Thai baht currency has continued  to  strengthen on massive foreign capital inflow, standing at 31.13  THB/USD,  according to latest reports. 

A financial expert of Ayudhya Bank Plc, stated today that the Thai Baht   has opened at 31.14/15 THB/USD, appreciating slightly from yesterday's   closing of 31.15/16 THB/USD. The currency is likely to grow  continuously  due to a foreign capital influx left unimpeded by the  Government. 

A special meeting of economic cabinet members took place yesterday to   assess the appreciation and consider if measures should be issued to   weaken the currency.  

The Thai baht today is projected to move to approximately 31.05-31.15 THB/USD.  

The Japanese yen opened at 84.35/37 JPY/USD while the Euro started at 1.2830/2835 USD/EUR.

----------


## aging one

> so low currencies are great in your mind ?  Is that what you want in your hoe country ?


That kind of talk give you a chubby?  Look the price of all foodstuffs is up over 25% in the last 2 years. Thats a lot for the average Thai.  How much are eggs today in Thailand?  Bet you cant tell me the price of pork, chicken, or rice just two years ago.

Those 4 items are at the top of the Thai food chain. They have all gone up radically.  I am talking about Thailand.  How long have you been here mate?

----------


## socal

[quote=StrontiumDog;1544910]


> Originally Posted by Butterfly
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by socal
> ...





> Where's the deflation?


My main goal at the start of this thread was to try and make people realize that a stronger currency is better for Thai's. These transitions are never simple.

Lets say the price of oil stays constant for a day, on the same day the Euro goes down and the baht goes up. There is your deflation. 




> DOMESTIC inflation is running at 3.3%.


Mongolia's is 25%, the UK is 3.1, goes to show how far Thailand has come.




> Working class Thai's don't buy expensive foreign goods. They buy local produce.


 But they buy foreign oil and alot of other commodities. 




> Aso you appear to have forgotten how pricing works in Thailand, it never goes down. Do you really think importers are going to pass on the changes due to the currency changes? Hell no. They'll enjoy the increased profit margin. That's business for you here.


if that was so true then why dont Thai stocks on the SET have way higher profit margins then anywhere else ? Its a market, its all relative and prices will come down or go up less. They have to.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> so low currencies are great in your mind ?  Is that what you want in your hoe country ?
> 
> 
> That kind of talk give you a chubby?  Look the price of all foodstuffs is up over 25% in the last 2 years. Thats a lot for the average Thai.  How much are eggs today in Thailand?  Bet you cant tell me the price of pork, chicken, or rice just two years ago.
> 
> Those 4 items are at the top of the Thai food chain. They have all gone up radically.  I am talking about Thailand.  How long have you been here mate?


I don't live in Thailand and I am not sure what it is like on the ground but I read reports on Thailand's balance sheet and it is solid. Low debt, surpluses in some sectors, good trade balance and huge foreign exchange reserves. Positive GDP growth ect. There is fundamental reasons why the baht is trending up.

Thailand is not an economic basket case, its far from it.

 If the BOT was really smart they would start dumping their US treasuries and start buying gold.

----------


## Butterfly

> Deflation is a good thing, in case you didn't know.


actually it's not a good thing, but thanks for playing

I suggest you study those topics a bit more  :Wink:

----------


## Butterfly

> that was so true then why dont Thai stocks on the SET have way higher profit margins then anywhere else ? Its a market, its all relative and prices will come down or go up less. They have to.


you seem to be confusing a lot of topics here, priceless  :Smile:

----------


## Moonraker

This is beginning to hurt now. I'm gonna have to put my rates up!

----------


## The Bold Rodney

I've learn't something after reading these posts...amazing how many budding Macroeconomic experts there are about.

Just one question...if thing's in Thailand are so great and the economic management is (supposed to be) so successful, why are many of educated Thais I've spoken with so concerned about the countries economy present and future?

As I understand it Thaillands economic continuing success depends largely on domestic consumption and in any country that's not a safe bet.

Anyway as long as the old rice whisky keeps flowing who really gives a shit?   :bananaman: party, party, party  :bananaman:

----------


## Bangyai

> You appear to be applying western logic to Thailand. A fatal flaw...


Applying _any_ kind of logic to Thailand is probably a fatal flaw.  ::chitown::

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> Deflation is a good thing, in case you didn't know.
> 
> 
> actually it's not a good thing, but thanks for playing
> 
> I suggest you study those topics a bit more


oh its not eh ?

So are you mad when something you want to buy goes on sale ?

----------


## socal

> I've learn't something after reading these posts...amazing how many budding Macroeconomic experts there are about.
> 
> Just one question...if thing's in Thailand are so great and the economic management is (supposed to be) so successful, why are many of educated Thais I've spoken with so concerned about the countries economy present and future?
> 
> As I understand it Thaillands economic continuing success depends largely on domestic consumption and in any country that's not a safe bet.
> 
> Anyway as long as the old rice whisky keeps flowing who really gives a shit?  party, party, party


Because most educated Thai's don't know anything about economics. Most educated Americans don't either.

The whole worlds economy has been totally out of balance for the last 10 or 15 years. The US has over consumed, it is evident in their huge trade deficit. They have also borrowed too much money from creditor nations like China, Japan and Thailand. When the US is forced to stop consuming by a devalued dollar, then the Thai economy will automatically shift toward more consumption. 

The worst part of it is, is that the real crisis has not happened yet. Things have been so out of balance that there will inevitably be a currency crisis. The reason things are so out of balance is because the US dollar is no longer backed by gold.

If the world reserve currency was backed by gold then this imbalance could have never happened. 

I don't know how Thailand will do when the US has a currency crisis. The problem is, the Bank Of Thailand owns allot of US treasury debt denominated in dollars.(they bought them as an investment from proceeds of all their exports, China did too.) If Thailand does not diversify out of US treasury debt then they will have allot to lose. Thailand needs to buy more gold and resource country currencies. If they don't diversify out, then they will incur losses as the US dollar falls. 

Most export creditor nations are in the same boat and its partly their fault. They should not have lent the US so much of their money. Russia is too, that is why they just bought more gold off of the IMF last week.

If the US dollar crashes and the US decides to go back to a partially gold backed currency then Thailand should have entitlement to some of the US's gold. If the US pays its debts to Thailand in the form of gold then Thailand will retain its wealth that it accumulated. If the US pays its debts to Thailand in a dollar that is worth half of what it was, then Thailand will lose half the value of their wealth. Thats not good.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> that was so true then why dont Thai stocks on the SET have way higher profit margins then anywhere else ? Its a market, its all relative and prices will come down or go up less. They have to.
> 
> 
> you seem to be confusing a lot of topics here, priceless


we can stop insulting each other any time now. I know more then you about this and you probably know more then me about other shit, whatever.

If your just having fun being a jackass then carry on, I can handle it.

----------


## Butterfly

> oh its not eh ?
> 
> So are you mad when something you want to buy goes on sale ?


going on sale isn't deflation, again you are exposing your complete ignorance on that topic  :Smile: 

deflation is associated with economic depression, hardly something to rejoice over.

----------


## Butterfly

> we can stop insulting each other any time now. I know more then you about this and you probably know more then me about other shit, whatever.
> 
> If your just having fun being a jackass then carry on, I can handle it.


you know fuck all, that's why it's hilarious. Inflation, deflation, gold standard, it's too many concept that apparently weren't addressed properly by your studies of Austrian Economics  :Smile:

----------


## Butterfly

> That kind of talk give you a chubby? Look the price of all foodstuffs is up over 25% in the last 2 years. Thats a lot for the average Thai. How much are eggs today in Thailand? Bet you cant tell me the price of pork, chicken, or rice just two years ago.


Ask yourself today what does 1,000 THB represent ? it was a lot of money a few years ago, now it goes in 1 day over nothing.

inflation has always been a problem in Thailand, like in most developing nation, it's associated with their high growth, a good thing. The problem is we are having slower growth these days, and inflation is still rampant, but manageable if caught early. The higher currency should technically slow down inflation, mostly because of Thailand dependence on oil, but the economic activity will also be affected. So the cheaper oil will help consumers and business alike, but not that much, and it might come at the expense of economic activity. Also keep in mind that higher export will import inflation, as local businesses activity overheat to meet the external demand.

But the discourse that is currently used to "help" the Amart and the rich like some have said here is ridiculous. Quite au contraire.

----------


## Mid

> How much are eggs today in Thailand?


5 baht ea  :Sad: 

1 to 2 baht short of western prices whilst wages are 10's of thousands less .

https://teakdoor.com/thailand-and-asi...aravanont.html (THAILAND'S RICHEST : Dhanin Chearavanont)

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> oh its not eh ?
> 
> So are you mad when something you want to buy goes on sale ?
> 
> 
> going on sale isn't deflation, again you are exposing your complete ignorance on that topic 
> 
> deflation is associated with economic depression, hardly something to rejoice over.


You have been corrupted by flawed neo-keynesian mainstream economics. Here is Keynesian economics explained in under 30 seconds.

----------


## Norton

> Ask yourself today what does 1,000 THB represent ?


About 10% of Thai average monthly income.

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

Deflation is not a good thing.

Lower prices are a good thing, but only lower prices that are due to better factory efficiency, improved worker productivity, tech developments (eg those that make LCD televisions able to be mass produced cheaply)

Deflation is a much bigger beast, and a nasty one. Lower prices as symptom of deflation are dangerous.

Because the root cause number one of deflation is one of a supply/demand mismatch, in which prices are falling not because of technological, worker productivity or efficiency gains, but simply because nobody wants to buy them.

A spiral emerges resulting in joblessness and a reluctance to invest, on a prolonged basis. In fact those cheaper prices for assets don't even look so attractive anymore.

Anyway, there won't be deflation, because there is a money printer at the Fed. If there is any chance of deflation, the printing presses will run. The loser then is the person who saves money. 



On the subject of the Baht, yes, exporters will be hit of course by a stronger Baht, but they frequently also benefit from their imported feedstocks/components being priced in Dollars.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by aging one
> 
> How much are eggs today in Thailand?
> 
> 
> 5 baht ea 
> 
> 1 to 2 baht short of western prices whilst wages are 10's of thousands less .


We can see that the US dollar has fallen against the baht while the price of sugar went up. Sugar went up more for Americans and less for Thai's. Al Jazzera should scoot over to Detroit and see what they think of higher sugar prices there.

----------


## aging one

See socal here is where you blow it. You dont know that the price of sugar here is subsidized by the government.  You cant talk about the economics of a place you dont know about.

----------


## Butterfly

> About 10% of Thai average monthly income.


for those who are lucky, more like 20% of their income for many




> A spiral emerges resulting in joblessness and a reluctance to invest, on a prolonged basis. In fact those cheaper prices for assets don't even look so attractive anymore.


even productive assets don't look attractive because they have poor cash flows resulting from the economic depression.




> The loser then is the person who saves money.


indeed, debt is cheap, borrowing is key. Never stop to borrow, too much cash around waiting. Debt is good in these days and age and might be again for the next 20 years  :Smile:

----------


## socal

[quote=The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog;1545640]


> Deflation is not a good thing.


 It is always a good thing.



> Lower prices are a good thing, but only lower prices that are due to better factory efficiency, improved worker productivity.
> 
> Deflation is a much bigger beast, and a nasty one.


Ask a 25 year old couple that cant find a house for under $400,000, if deflation is  is a bad thing. House prices where bid up by a low interest rate environment to levels never seen in history. They must deflate to the point where they are affordable again.




> Because the root cause number one of deflation is one of a supply/demand mismatch, in which prices are falling not because of technological, worker productivity or efficiency gains, but simply because nobody wants to buy them.


Nope, nobody can afford to buy them. Prices must come back down to liquefy the market again. Keeping them up does nobody any good.



> A spiral emerges resulting in joblessness and a reluctance to invest, on a prolonged basis. In fact those cheaper prices for assets don't even look so attractive anymore.


Not for a prolonged basis if you let the market correct itself by bringing prices back to equilibrium.




> Anyway, there won't be deflation, because there is a money printer at the Fed. If there is any chance of deflation, the printing presses will run. The loser then is the person who saves money.


The loser will be anyone who has no gold. Look at how well printing money worked for Germany in the 20's. They had hyperinflation and society collapsed. How is that a good thing ?

You know why the US has decided to print now and Germany has decided to implement austerity ? Because Germans remember the hyperinflation and the only reason the US didn't have hyperinflation was because the dollar was backed by gold.




> On the subject of the Baht, yes, exporters will be hit of course by a stronger Baht, but they frequently also benefit from their imported feedstocks/components being priced in Dollars.


Thats right.

----------


## socal

> See socal here is where you blow it. You dont know that the price of sugar here is subsidized by the government.  You cant talk about the economics of a place you dont know about.


that would make it even cheaper for the people.

----------


## Butterfly

:rofl:

----------


## socal

> even productive assets don't look attractive because they have poor cash flows resulting from the economic depression.


There is no easy way out of a credit induced boom. Do you think printing money that is backed by nothing is going to help ?




> The loser then is the person who saves money.





> indeed, debt is cheap, borrowing is key. Never stop to borrow, too much cash around waiting. Debt is good in these days and age and might be again for the next 20 years


This is the exact attitude that leads to hyperinflation, (which is a worse alternative then deflation) The velocity of money goes up because the faith in the value of the currency erodes. Nobody wants to hold the currency because they know it will buy less in the future, the next year,then month, then day, then hour. At that point society collapses.

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

...' lower prices' does not equal 'deflation'

Its not the case. Deflation is something different. Its a far wider economic phenomena. 

Deflation is not just _ 'cheaper prices, hooray!'_. It is an environment where nobody wants to invest, because of a downward spiral.

Cheaper prices for houses may seem nice for some (first time buyers), but if linked to a deflationary cause, its not good, it can become a runaway train. Those first time buyers find that not only has their new house fallen in value, but they've lost their jobs too !



If the point is,_ 'houses are overvalued, they should fall to a market clearance level of affordability"_, then thats fine. .........But that is not 'deflation'.

----------


## Thetyim

Has Driven to Win taken up economics now ?

----------


## socal

> ...' lower prices' does not equal 'deflation'
> 
> Its not the case. Deflation is something different. Its a far wider economic phenomena. 
> 
> Deflation is not just _ 'cheaper prices, hooray!'_. It is an environment where nobody wants to invest, because of a downward spiral.
> 
> Cheaper prices for houses may seem nice for some (first time buyers), but if linked to a deflationary cause, its not good, it can become a runaway train. Those first time buyers find that not only has their new house fallen in value, but they've lost their jobs too !
> 
> 
> ...


Deflation is when the purchasing power of money goes up. 

The  low interest rate induced boom was the problem, the deflation is the correction that allows markets to clear and prices to reach equilibrium. 

There is no easy way out of a low interest rate fueled boom. Interest rates should never have been that low in the first place. If deflation is so bad then what is your alternative ?

----------


## Mid

*Deflation*

*deflation* is a decrease in the general price  level of goods and services.[1] 

Deflation occurs when the annual inflation  rate falls below zero percent (a negative inflation rate), resulting in an increase in the real value of  money  allowing one to buy more goods with the same amount of money.  

This should not be confused with disinflation,  a slow-down in the inflation rate (i.e. when inflation declines to  lower levels).[2] 

As inflation reduces the real value of money over time, conversely,  deflation increases the real value of money  the functional currency  (and monetary unit of account) in a national or regional economy.

wikipedia.org


_Thailands inflation rate held above 3 percent for a ninth month in August, supporting the central banks view that interest rates can rise further._ 

Thailand Inflation Exceeds 3% for Ninth Month, Sustaining Pressure on Rate - Bloomberg

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> Deflation is when the purchasing power of money goes up. 
> 
> The  low interest rate induced boom was the problem, the deflation is the correction that allows markets to clear and prices to reach equilibrium. 
> 
> There is no easy way out of a low interest rate fueled boom. Interest rates should never have been that low in the first place. If deflation is so bad then what is your alternative ?


The by-products of deflation are a far more acute slump, contraction in economic activity and unemployment. 

There's the _'hey, stuff is cheaper'_ kick, but that comes at a huge price. One that is politically unacceptable. People (voters) lose their home equity, plus you have multi-millions out of work. 


So, the alternative - and Bernanke has given indications this is what he will do.

Devalue money to erode the value of debts and prop up nominal asset prices. If he can't do this by the economy stabilising now, he will stimulate again by further quantitative easing.

He will take inflation over austerity.

This is not necessarily a just or fair solution, but its how its been done in economic history before.

----------


## socal

[quote=The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog;1545718]


> Deflation is when the purchasing power of money goes up. 
> 
> The  low interest rate induced boom was the problem, the deflation is the correction that allows markets to clear and prices to reach equilibrium. 
> 
> There is no easy way out of a low interest rate fueled boom. Interest rates should never have been that low in the first place. If deflation is so bad then what is your alternative ?





> The by-products of deflation are a far more acute slump, contraction in economic activity and unemployment.


There is no way around that. The faster you let it happen, the sooner it will be over. 






> There's the _'hey, stuff is cheaper'_ kick, but that comes at a huge price. One that is politically unacceptable. People (voters) lose their home equity, plus you have multi-millions out of work.


There is no choice, there is no way around that. 





> So, the alternative - and Bernanke has given indications this is what he will do.
> 
> Devalue money to erode the value of debts and prop up nominal asset prices. If he can't do this by the economy stabilising now, he will stimulate again by further quantitative easing.


That keynesian theory has never worked in history, not once. It can only lead to a hyper inflationary collapse.




> He will take inflation over austerity.
> 
> This is not necessarily a just or fair solution, but its how its been done in economic history before.


Eroding the purchasing power of the currency by printing phantom money out of thin air has never created economic prosperity  in history. Even to think that it would work is laughable.

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> Eroding the purchasing power of the currency by printing phantom money out of thin air has never created economic prosperity  in history.  Even to think that it would work is laughable.


So how do you account for/explain China's current massive money printing, accompanied by simultaneous economic prosperity?

Nevertheless, I'm not claiming money printing will lead to economic prosperity in the USA. They are doing it in the States as an expedient alternative to recognising asset value losses.

----------


## aging one

> Sugar went up more for Americans and less for Thai's


 You still dont get it, its priced controlled.  So you are not making sense comparing sugar price rise in American as opposed to Thailand. Of course it went up less here the price is pegged.

----------


## Seekingasylum

> Aso you appear to have forgotten how pricing works in Thailand, it never goes down. Do you really think importers are going to pass on the changes due to the currency changes? Hell no. They'll enjoy the increased profit margin. That's business for you here. 
> 
> I buy a lot of foreign goods, but the prices only go one way...up.


The explanation for this is quite simple - no competition.

Thailand is a closed market rigged in favour of the domestic cartel that own the place.

Mind you, who would want it any different if you are one of the lucky ones. The strength of the Thai baht is a further indicator of their success and its continuing attraction to currency traders, looking for investment in a world where the flight to bonds dominates, accounts for its inexorable rise.

To be a Thai millionaire now must be so comforting.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> Eroding the purchasing power of the currency by printing phantom money out of thin air has never created economic prosperity  in history.  Even to think that it would work is laughable.
> 
> 
> So how do you account for/explain China's current massive money printing, accompanied by simultaneous economic prosperity?
> 
> Nevertheless, I'm not claiming money printing will lead to economic prosperity in the USA. They are doing it in the States as an expedient alternative to recognising asset value losses.


China, for the last 20 years has only converted the dollars they get from the US to Renminbi to settle their trade. That Renminbi was procured from real production capacity. 

The more recent China "stimulus package"  has only created a temporary sugar high in the economy that will only result in an equivalent bust some time in the near future. 

Stimulus and money printing only spends purchasing power that already exists, it only creates a temporary illusion. Just look at Zimbabwe, do you think they are rich just because they have 1000,000 bills ?

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
> 
> 
>  
> Aso you appear to have forgotten how pricing works in Thailand, it never goes down. Do you really think importers are going to pass on the changes due to the currency changes? Hell no. They'll enjoy the increased profit margin. That's business for you here. 
> 
> I buy a lot of foreign goods, but the prices only go one way...up.
> 
> 
> ...


Then show me all the companies in the Thai SET with abnormally high profit margins.

----------


## Moonraker

> Originally Posted by thegent
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
> ...


Do you have any idea of the extent to which you have just contradicted yourself?

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by thegent
> ...


no, probably because I didn't. Now explain yourself.

----------


## socal

> Deflation is not a good thing.
> 
> Lower prices are a good thing, but only lower prices that are due to better factory efficiency, improved worker productivity, tech developments (eg those that make LCD televisions able to be mass produced cheaply)
> 
> Deflation is a much bigger beast, and a nasty one. Lower prices as symptom of deflation are dangerous.
> 
> Because the root cause number one of deflation is one of a supply/demand mismatch, in which prices are falling not because of technological, worker productivity or efficiency gains, but simply because nobody wants to buy them.
> 
> A spiral emerges resulting in joblessness and a reluctance to invest, on a prolonged basis. In fact those cheaper prices for assets don't even look so attractive anymore.
> ...


If you really do know Marc Faber personally, then ask him if deflation is good or bad. I know he will agree with me because he is one of the people who taught me this stuff through his writings. While you are at it, ask what he thinks of the prospects of US treasury bonds.

----------


## tomta

> Not for a prolonged basis if you let the market correct itself by bringing prices back to equilibrium.


This notion of a "correct" market and "equilibrium" seems very strange to me. If markets are always correcting themselves, why do they never seem to get it right. And once the mystical point of equilibrium is reached, why don't things just stop there.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by aging one
> 
> Not for a prolonged basis if you let the market correct itself by bringing prices back to equilibrium.
> 
> 
> This notion of a "correct" market and "equilibrium" seems very strange to me. If markets are always correcting themselves, why do they never seem to get it right. And once the mystical point of equilibrium is reached, why don't things just stop there.


Because of government and central bank intervention is markets that creates moral hazards and miss-allocations of capital. Peter Schiff explains it well in this clip.
Peter Schiff August 25, 2010 MSNBC

----------


## sabang

> That keynesian theory has never worked in history, not once.


The New Deal, Thaksinomics, The China stim, The Singaporean economy. Try not to let your politics color your economics- commensensically, the Government as by far the largest single player in an economy, plus the sole issuer of money and interest rate policy, can have a tangible effect on the economy at many levels. In practise it will tend to use, or if you prefer 'resort to', fiscal (Keynesian) policies at times of stress, such as a recession or crash, whereas Monetary (interest rate) policies are used at all times.

One eyed Monetarism has been a disaster for the Western world. The problem is not Monetarist or Supply Side economics as such, it is the one eyed policies and false assumptions of it's disciples, who have certainly dominated US economic policy in recent years. This led to such follies as that government Deficits 'didn't matter' as long as the economy was growing.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> That keynesian theory has never worked in history, not once.
> 
> 
> The New Deal, Thaksinomics, The China stim, The Singaporean economy. Try not to let your politics color your economics- commensensically, the Government as by far the largest single player in an economy, plus the sole issuer of money and interest rate policy, can have a tangible effect on the economy at many levels. In practise it will tend to use, or if you prefer 'resort to', fiscal (Keynesian) policies at times of stress, such as a recession or crash, whereas Monetary (interest rate) policies are used at all times.
> 
> One eyed Monetarism has been a disaster for the Western world. The problem is not Monetarist or Supply Side economics as such, it is the one eyed policies and false assumptions of it's disciples, who have certainly dominated US economic policy in recent years. This led to such follies as that government Deficits 'didn't matter' as long as the economy was growing.


Everything you just wrote is so wrong that I don't even know where to start. First of all, the "new deal" is what prolonged the depression, it is what made the recession a depression. If China's stimulus was so great then why not print even more money ? Why not mail everyone a million dollar check ?

Keynesian economics has dominated the mainstream western world since WW2, quite the contarty to what you said. Other then the brief period in the 80's when Paul Volcker shunned Keynes and raised interest rates to 20% which corrected inflation and brought on sustained growth(evident in the rising dollar and sustained rise in the stock market). Keynesian economists have been in the Federal reserve ever since and they have consistently employed keynesian stimulus by lowering interest rates and bailing out failed companies. 

The first colossal fuck up was when they bailed out Long Term Capital Management in the 90's. Long-Term Capital Management - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The next one was when they lowered interest rates, rather then have a real recession to correct the imbalances, after the Nasdaq .com bubble in 2000.Dot-com bubble - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia  The result of lowering interest rates(keynesian stimulus) at the time blew up the housing bubble. The government sponsored agencies of Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac also distorted the free market which blew up the housing bubble that exploded in everyone's faces in 2008. Now they LOWERED RATES AGAIN, this time to 0%, plus they doubled the size of the balance sheet of the Federal reserve to bail out the banks and they also had a 780 billion dollar "stimulus package". 

Keynesian "stimulus" has killed the US dollar. The US dollar  no longer has the ability to create non price inflationary gains. It is evident in the fact that the DOW, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have not moved up in 10 years yet the US dollar index went from 120 to 75  and the price of gold in dollars went from $260 to $1200.

Is anyone sick of Keynesianism and government intervention yet ?

Please, take the fucking blinders off. This is a video of a keynesian economists (Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman) and an Austrain economists(Peter Schiff) assessment of the economy over the last 5 years. It is fairly obvious who is right and who is wrong.

----------


## Seekingasylum

Socal, much of what you said is spot on and broadly speaking I'm in full agreement but it's the bigger picture that defeats us all and relying on so called mechanisms founded on economic theories expounded by shibboleths of the past isn't going to help. It is a dismal science compromised by sentiment and the only principle that seems to prevail is the idiotic notion that hope can have a value on which to base a theorem. It can't and the naked emperor , Greenspan himself, finally acknowledged this in one of his valedictory speeches when he finally admitted that he couldn't understand why the market was acting as it did.

The economic world is shifting its axis. The Old World can only generate wealth by a distortion of fiat banking funding domestic led growth artificially inflating asset prices. The recent debacle is a consequence of that but in truth there is nowhere else to go for us. 

We shall just have to accept the new paradigm - the western economies will face stagnation and the majority will just have to accept that they will remain comparatively poor. Unless of course they sacrifice their welfare states.......

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> If you really do know Marc Faber personally, then ask him if deflation is good or bad. I know he will agree with me because he is one of the people who taught me this stuff through his writings. While you are at it, ask what he thinks of the prospects of US treasury bonds.


Yes, happy to do so next time I see him. Not sure what the timing is of his next booking. Let me check the pieces i've written about him in the last couple of years to see if he mentions a view on deflation.

Just one thing though. Marc does advocate buying gold as a hedge against hyperinflation (he also recommends buying farm land).

However, if you think deflation is coming, then be mindful that gold is not a hedge against deflation. Because of course the reverse applies then - cash is worth more during deflation, not hard assets. 

Whichever he thinks is good or bad, MF is positioned (hence the gold recommendation) for an inflationary environment not deflation. I know that is what he thinks - i've heard him say it half a dozen times.

  Reason being:_ "Money printer at the Fed",_ ...thats actually his direct quote.

----------


## Seekingasylum

And how are precious metals priced?

----------


## Seekingasylum

Watching Faber reminds me of Dr Strangelove. Obviously a man much enamoured of ze final solution school of thought and as such as much a charlatan as those over whom he affects a superiority.

Sorry, can't take the man seriously. His twaddle on the geo political ramifications of Afghanistan alone suggests a fundamental unsoundness.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> 
> If you really do know Marc Faber personally, then ask him if deflation is good or bad. I know he will agree with me because he is one of the people who taught me this stuff through his writings. While you are at it, ask what he thinks of the prospects of US treasury bonds. 
> 
> 
> Yes, happy to do so next time I see him. Not sure what the timing is of his next booking. Let me check the pieces i've written about him in the last couple of years to see if he mentions a view on deflation.
> 
> ...


No actually, gold does well during deflation and inflation. Just look at what the price of gold did and the big mining companies of the time of the great depression. I know there was a gold standard then but absent the gold standard, the price would have went higher.
There is no possible way to have deflation with the US dollar, even if they print no more money. Do you really think that the US dollar is suddenly going to reverse its 80 year course of going down ?

Even if the Fed prints no more new money. Just think about it for a minute.. If the economy collapses and most industry in the US either collapses or gets cut in half, who is going to pay the interest on the US government debt ? (treasury bonds) Bonds only get serviced by taxation on the US economy.

The US dollar is no longer backed by gold, it is only backed by the full faith and CREDIT of the US government. With out a revenue stream to tax and service the debt, the debt and the dollars it is denominated in, will become a non performing asset. Non performing assets sell off and lose value(inflation)

The Euro already gave us a perfect example recently. Just this June, Greece was having problems servicing its Euro denominated debt. What happened ? The Euro started inflating(devaluing) The Euro fell from 1.50 to 1.19. (This was BEFORE any Euro printing by the ECB.) So if there was any truth in the deflation argument, the Euro would have risen(deflation) when Greece had its problems.

It will be no different for the US dollar, it is just a fiat currency backed by debt. So am I mindful that gold might do bad during depression ? No, not at all, there is no logical reason to be. Just ask anyone holding or earning Euros.

----------


## socal

> Watching Faber reminds me of Dr Strangelove. Obviously a man much enamoured of ze final solution school of thought and as such as much a charlatan as those over whom he affects a superiority.
> 
> Sorry, can't take the man seriously. His twaddle on the geo political ramifications of Afghanistan alone suggests a fundamental unsoundness.


I don't listen to his geo political BS either. I only listen to him on his views of macroeconomics. Peter Schiff is preferable.

----------


## longway

> The result of lowering interest rates(keynesian stimulus)


Lowering interest rates is not a keynesian stimulus measure as far as I understand it.

----------


## socal

> The result of lowering interest rates(keynesian stimulus)
> 			
> 		
> 
> Lowering interest rates is not a keynesian stimulus measure as far as I understand it.


yes it is, because it releases money into the economy. $100 lend out at 1% interest releases $99 into the economy, $100 lent out at 5% releases $95 into the economy.

----------


## Butterfly

socal, you seem to be confusing Fiscal policies with monetarist policies, a known bias for those confused with economic policies to manage the business cycle

you contradict yourself on a number of topics and then try to put everything in some kind of failed logic, it's hilarious

Gold is a natural hedge against inflation. If there was deflation, price of Gold would go down as "real interest rates" would go up. If you discount Nominal Interest rates with a lower price level, they go up in real terms. It's that simple.

anyway, between your silly economic doom predictions and your overhyped asset predictions, you seem to be trying to reconcile oppposing economic mechanics. Your obsession with Gold has been seen before, it's called Gold fever.

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> And how are precious metals priced?


In currency, ....as is land, stocks, cars boats and diamonds.

But in periods of deflation, when cash is king, currency simply buys you more....of whatever hard asset you want to buy.

Socal mentions that gold ought to perform well as a hedge in deflation as well as in inflation. The former is an extremist goldbug theory for hardline gold aficionados. There are papers written on the subject which I haven't covered. Its a hard topic for any analyst to argue on any side, because there have been so few recent precedents.

Gold has done very well in the last few years, and the SPDR Gold ETF is a remarkable success. In the last few weeks though, gold has been behaving strangely sometimes, going down on days that one would expect it to rise. This has led some to think that traditional correlations are fracturing.

----------


## Butterfly

> This has led some to think that traditional correlations are fracturing.


one could say it's also competiting with other commodities, and because it has become part the asset allocation process for institutions like many commodities, its particular diversification nature and low correlation with bonds and stocks might be ending soon.

----------


## socal

> socal, you seem to be confusing Fiscal policies with monetarist policies, a known bias for those confused with economic policies to manage the business cycle
> 
> you contradict yourself on a number of topics and then try to put everything in some kind of failed logic, it's hilarious
> 
> Gold is a natural hedge against inflation. If there was deflation, price of Gold would go down as "real interest rates" would go up. If you discount Nominal Interest rates with a lower price level, they go up in real terms. It's that simple.
> 
> anyway, between your silly economic doom predictions and your overhyped asset predictions, you seem to be trying to reconcile oppposing economic mechanics. Your obsession with Gold has been seen before, it's called Gold fever.


Just because you cant piece it all together and understand it yet, doesn't mean that I am confused.

I was responding to Moogs assertion that "if there is asset price deflation, then gold will go down" He said that, as if where to happen today. I was just explaining that, in today's case, there cannot be big deflation without big inflation because the government is in debt and the money is backed by the debt.

If the the government was debt free or close to, or the dollar was backed by gold, then there would be deflation.

In todays case, there can only be deflation, when priced in gold.

----------


## Butterfly

^ complete non-sense, mixing several issues you don't fully understand to reach some kind of positive conclusion on your gold bias

----------


## socal

[quote=The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog;1547177]


> And how are precious metals priced?





> In currency, ....as is land, stocks, cars boats and diamonds.
> 
> But in periods of deflation, when cash is king, currency simply buys you more....of whatever hard asset you want to buy.


Yeah, when the currency is backed by something with real intrinsic value. The intrinsic value of the paper money in your wallet isn't worth the paper its written on, the digits you see in your bank account on your computer are not worth the paper they are not written on.




> Socal mentions that gold ought to perform well as a hedge in deflation as well as in inflation. The former is an extremist goldbug theory for hardline gold aficionados. There are papers written on the subject which I haven't covered. Its a hard topic for any analyst to argue on any side, because there have been so few recent precedents.


Thats right, there is no precedents in history where a fiat paper money based economy collapsed or contracted, where the currency rose in value. They always inflate(devalue) away or close to it. I am not extreme, or hardline for realizing that gold and silver is actual money that serves as a store of value.




> Gold has done very well in the last few years, and the SPDR Gold ETF is a remarkable success. In the last few weeks though, gold has been behaving strangely sometimes, going down on days that one would expect it to rise. This has led some to think that traditional correlations are fracturing.


Gold has been doing ok for the last few years but all may not look as it seems. Gordon Brown dumped half of the UKs gold on the market with announced sales in 2000 to bail out the LBMA. Considering that was a "not for profit sale", the real market bottom for the gold price was probably around 450 to 500 dollars an oz. 

$500 an oz to 1200 an oz over a ten year period, where mine production declined, central banks where sellers, while the Federal reserve balance sheet doubled, the derivative market expanded 10 fold and foreign exchange reserves exploded is not an over heated market.

Gold is still cheap

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog
> 
> This has led some to think that traditional correlations are fracturing.
> 
> 
> one could say it's also competiting with other commodities, and because it has become part the asset allocation process for institutions like many commodities, its particular diversification nature and low correlation with bonds and stocks might be ending soon.


Gold is not a commodity, it is a currency.

----------


## Roger Ramjet

There is a really good upside to the eggs in Thailand going up to 5 baht each.....it is that  Isaan farmers might keep a few more of their little pluckers off the roads! :smiley laughing: ....then again maybe demand will fall, and their will be less chickens!


.........and please don't encourage buying more gold!!!! most Teak Door members will already be getting an earfull......"I need to buy more gold"!!!!!!!!  :rofl:

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> Gold is still cheap


...and this notion is why gold bugs oft-times don't make money, because they tend to fall in love with the glowing metal. 

Its not hard to buy at the right time, and they invariably do, but then the price goes up. 

And lets say it gets to $1500, $2000, $10,000. 

The gold bug is still saying _'its cheap'_ . And _'its a currency'_ but its not until he turns it back into dollars and buys something with it. 

Then it comes splatting back down again, and gold-bug rides it back down, saying _'its even cheaper now'_

Happened before, in the eighties. That was just before I joined the gold bullion department at NM Rothschild. Folk were shell-shocked, could hardly believe the precipitate fall in gold that had just happened.

Gold bugs will say now_ ' this time it is different'_ 

Its not where you buy, its where you sell.

----------


## socal

[quote=The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog;1547262]


> Gold is still cheap





> ...and this notion is why gold bugs oft-times don't make money, because they tend to fall in love with the glowing metal. 
> 
> Its not hard to buy at the right time, and they invariably do, but then the price goes up.


Who told you that ? The dow, the s&p and the dollar have not moved for 10 years while gold went from 3,4 or 500 to 1200. There have been allot of investors not making money these last 10 years and it certainly isn't the "gold bugs".




> And lets say it gets to $1500, $2000, $10,000. 
> 
> The gold bug is still saying _'its cheap'_ . And _'its a currency'_ but its not until he turns it back into dollars and buys something with it. 
> 
> Then it comes splatting back down again, and gold-bug rides it back down, saying _'its even cheaper now'_


You must have bought at the last top, you seem to remember it well. Why would you buy gold when US treasuries where yielding 20% ?  Plus there was no keynesian at the chair in the Federal reserve. duh ! I would have sold my gold when interest rates where at 10%.



> Happened before, in the eighties. That was just before I joined the gold bullion department at NM Rothschild. Folk were shell-shocked, could hardly believe the precipitate fall in gold that had just happened.
> 
> Gold bugs will say now_ ' this time it is different'_ 
> 
> Its not where you buy, its where you sell.


More evidence that you bought at the old top. After a 2300% rise through the late 60s and 70s, you didn't think it was getting a little toppy ? 

You are making the same mistake again except in reverse, US treasuries are now the bubble, not gold. The more expensive treasuries become, the lower their yield goes, so when the 10 year is yielding around 2% it should be fairly obvious to all, that they are getting too expensive. Also, US treasuries have been going up for 30 years.

When US treasuries are yielding 8 or 10% I will be selling my gold.

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> You are making the same mistake again except in reverse, US treasuries are now the bubble, not gold.


There are plenty of professional investors who think both asset classes are in bubble territory. Personally I don't have a price view on either. 

It sounds like you have convinced yourself on all points already, so we don't really need to debate it further. Hope your strategy works out well.

----------


## StrontiumDog

THB rises to 29-months high : National News Bureau of Thailand

*THB rises to 29-months high*

BANGKOK, 7 September  2010 (NNT) – The Thai baht has made a new high in  29 months this  morning, settling at 31.11 THB against USD. Analysts  expect to see it  rise to 31.00 THB this week. 

The Thai currency opened on Monday morning at 31.16-31.18 THB per USD   before shifting to 31.11 THB, setting yet another record in 29 months.   An analyst from Ayudhya Bank predicts the trend to continue due to the   positive sentiment in stock markets including the US’s Dow Jones and   Japan’s Nikei and the anticipated capital inflow. 

Compared to Asian currencies, the US dollar is expected to continue   falling for a while. Investors see no clear sign of further improvement   in the US economy, unlike that of Asia which is growing much faster.  

Today, Thai baht is forecast to shift within the range of 31.00-31.15 THB against USD.

----------


## Norton

> Thai baht is forecast to shift within the range of 31.00-31.15 THB against USD.


US based companies are projecting it will get down as low as 30.1 within 1 year.

----------


## DrAndy

> and because it has become part the asset allocation process for institutions like many commodities, its particular diversification nature and low correlation with bonds and stocks might be ending soon.





> t because you cant piece it all together and understand it yet, doesn't mean that I am confused.


I am though




> complete non-sense, mixing several issues you don't fully understand to reach some kind of positive conclusion on your gold bias





> Gold is not a commodity, it is a currency.


there you are then

which country has gold as its currency?

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by Butterfly
> 
> and because it has become part the asset allocation process for institutions like many commodities, its particular diversification nature and low correlation with bonds and stocks might be ending soon.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Every country in the world accepts gold as currency. That is why US special forces carry gold and not paper money.

----------


## Nostradamus

> That is why US special forces carry gold and not paper money.


US Special Forces 'Delta Force' dog tag.

----------


## Nostradamus

> hat is why US special forces carry gold and not paper money.


Assault On Pikey Caravan Site IV. Great movie.

----------


## Thormaturge

> which country has gold as its currency?



Gold is a precious metal that is traded just as any other commodity.

It isn't a currency anywhere and isn't even used to support any currency nowadays.

Personally  I prefer shares in companies that make soap.

----------


## zygote1

The  people claiming  Thailand's economy is booming and is going to keep growing are the same people that  didn't think the US and EU banking systems would melt down. Presently, the 3 countries with the most stable banking systems are Australia, Canada and Sweden. In terms of monetary policy the central banks of Australia and Canada are following similar stratagies. Both rely on exports to bolster the economy, both have kept a tight reign on interest rates and both have lacklustre stock markets. Both currencies have remained stable against the USD and there was a buying frenzy of  CAD$ which the Bank of Canada acted to slow. Both Canada and Australia have very different fiscal policies from Thailand and unlike Thailand both have invested billions in  local infrastructure projects in the past 2 years. 
Know what, maybe the results in Canada and Australia aren't as sexy as the current Thai public spin, but I'd rather  have my  holdings in $AUS or $CAD than THB. Something about  integrity, transparency and reliability of the financial system. Even the battered Bank of England is transparent, and subject to  proper oversight. Considering the state of public disclosure in Thailand, just how reliable are the numbers?  I'm not Thai bashing. Rather, people should learn from the  deceitfulness of Greece. Governments play around with the numbers. Some just don't play, but they squander and mislead. Think about it.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by DrAndy
> 
> 
>  
> which country has gold as its currency?
> 
> 
>  
> Gold is a precious metal that is traded just as any other commodity.
> ...


You can exchange gold for any paper currency in the world.

Lumber is traded as any other commodity too, so that makes paper currency as much of a commodity as gold.

----------


## StrontiumDog

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255309080019

THB strongest in 13 years                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

BANGKOK, 8 September  2010 (NNT) – The Thai currency has risen to its highest value in 13  years with the Bank of Thailand poised to intervene if the currency  breaks through 31 THB on the US Dollar. 

The Thai baht on Tuesday weakened slightly to 31.26 THB against the USD  after the nation's market was saturated with rumors that the Bank of  Thailand (BoT) was preparing to launch control measures. The Baht  nonetheless, shifted up again this morning as there was no sign of the  apparent intervention. 

A financial analyst from Kasikorn Bank indicated that the Thai currency  has made the greatest leap in value compared to other currencies in the  region due to a continuous foreign capital inflow. 

After surpassing the resistance mark of 31.10 THB per USD, the baht is likely reach 31.00 THB today.

----------


## Butterfly

> You can exchange gold for any paper currency in the world.


you are confusing a currency exchange rate with a currency  :rofl: 

have you tried doing your grocery at Tesco with gold ? let me know how it went  :mid: 

you remind of the Americans who used to give USD to pay for their grocery and thought it was universal currency  :Razz:

----------


## Butterfly

> The Thai baht on Tuesday weakened slightly to 31.26 THB against the USD after the nation's market was saturated with rumors that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) was preparing to launch control measures. The Baht nonetheless, shifted up again this morning as there was no sign of the apparent intervention.
> 
> A financial analyst from Kasikorn Bank indicated that the Thai currency has made the greatest leap in value compared to other currencies in the region due to a continuous foreign capital inflow.


I am starting to suspect that some speculators are trying to push the THB so it can "break" and force the BOT to liquidate their reserves

with high inflation, low growth, and FX currency speculation, we might be revisiting soon a scenario we had in 1997. The only difference is the current large foreign reserves but that can go fairly quickly if the BOT was to fight a strong speculative move. For now, they are sleeping as usual.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> You can exchange gold for any paper currency in the world.
> 
> 
> you are confusing a currency exchange rate with a currency 
> 
> have you tried doing your grocery at Tesco with gold ? let me know how it went 
> 
> you remind of the Americans who used to give USD to pay for their grocery and thought it was universal currency


for the tenth time on this thread, you are the confused one, not me.

Gold is a currency, you exchange it for other currencies. You don't need to use gold at Tesco, all you have to do is bring the gold to a bank and exchange it for the local currency. Try buying groceries in france with thai baht or in russia with zimbabwe dollars. There is not way, but if you had gold, you can exchange it for any other currency.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
> 
> The Thai baht on Tuesday weakened slightly to 31.26 THB against the USD after the nation's market was saturated with rumors that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) was preparing to launch control measures. The Baht nonetheless, shifted up again this morning as there was no sign of the apparent intervention.
> 
> A financial analyst from Kasikorn Bank indicated that the Thai currency has made the greatest leap in value compared to other currencies in the region due to a continuous foreign capital inflow.
> 
> 
> I am starting to suspect that some speculators are trying to push the THB so it can "break" and force the BOT to liquidate their reserves
> 
> with high inflation, low growth, and FX currency speculation, we might be revisiting soon a scenario we had in 1997. The only difference is the current large foreign reserves but that can go fairly quickly if the BOT was to fight a strong speculative move. For now, they are sleeping as usual.


You don't have a clue.

Its just the opposite of 1997. In 1997 Thailand had huge forign debt and current account deficits. Today Thailand has huge forign exchange reserves and trade surpluses.

The very essence of fighting inflation is to let the currency rise. You are saying there is an inflation problem but you think the BOT should create even more inflation by devaluing the baht. How is creating inflation going to stop the inflation ?

So in your misguided mind, weak currencies are a good thing ? is that what you want ?

----------


## The Bold Rodney

> Gold is a currency, you exchange it for other currencies.


Gold is NOT a currency it's a commodity.

You do not exchange it for any currency albeit you can buy it and you can sell it that's why its traded as a commodity and NOT A CURRENCY.

----------


## The Bold Rodney

Its not often I agree with Butterfly but I have to on this occasion.




> The very essence of fighting inflation is to let the currency rise.


Not as simple as that and sorry but you're out of your depth here, there are many other factors to consider.




> So in your misguided mind, weak currencies are a good thing ? is that what you want ?


Again not as simple as that, depends on which side of the fence you're sitting on and whether your an International player or a tourist getting his holiday currency. 

I'll make it simple for you...its depends on whether your a buyer or a seller and major International Banks don't care particularly whether a currency is weak, if its weak you take a view and maybe buy it or short it. 

International Banks should hedge their trades and the sensible ones do and did do, a simple explanation is reduce exposure to market shifts.

And that worked reasonably well until the bonus hungry greedy Yanks across the pond completely fucked up the world markets with wild derivative trading and imaginary securities topped off by the sub prime market trading which tipped everything over the edge.

You're confusing International Market currency trading with Domestic Fiscal policies the two are not the same and its obvious your talking out of your posterior old chap.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> Gold is a currency, you exchange it for other currencies.
> 
> 
> Gold is NOT a currency it's a commodity.
> 
> You do not exchange it for any currency albeit you can buy it and you can sell it that's why its traded as a commodity and NOT A CURRENCY.


It is going to take some time for people like you to realize that gold and silver is the only real money. Gold IS money, paper IS NOT money, the digits that represent the virtual value of your bank account HAVE NO INTRINSIC VALUE.

Paper money and virtual fiat currencies have NO INTRINSIC VALUE. They only have virtual value.

----------


## The Bold Rodney

> It is going to take some time for people like you to realize that gold and silver is the only real money. Gold IS money, paper IS NOT money, the digits that represent the virtual value of your bank account HAVE NO INTRINSIC VALUE.


Are you feeling ok, surely you're not at all well?

Nobody has mentioned paper money and it's obvious you know nothing about financial markets or any other markets for that matter. 

And what *value* my learned friend do electronic trades or anonymous matching trades have? Are you saying that any trade that doesn't use Gold or Siver has no intrinsic value? 

You don't answer any points put to you ever and by the way how did you get on at Wallmart shopping with gold? 

And virtual currency trading has SFA to do with your original post or what I posted, your surfing the net and reading the marketing spin too much.

Take two tablets (NO THREE) and go to bed and hopefully you'll feel better later but bed rest is not a fix for mental illness, remember that!

----------


## socal

[quote=The Bold Rodney;1549629]Its not often I agree with Butterfly but I have to on this occasion.




> The very essence of fighting inflation is to let the currency rise.





> Not as simple as that and sorry but you're out of your depth here, there are many other factors to consider.





> So in your misguided mind, weak currencies are a good thing ? is that what you want ?


I know its not as simple "as that" but if you cant get the basics right, there is no need to explain any further. You don't even have any reasons why it is "not as simple as that" ?





> Again not as simple as that, depends on which side of the fence you're sitting on and whether your an International player or a tourist getting his holiday currency.


No. You don't understand the basics.



> I'll make it simple for you...its depends on whether your a buyer or a seller and major International Banks don't care particularly whether a currency is weak, if its weak you take a view and maybe buy it or short it.


You don't even understand what I mean by "weak currency" I did not mean fundamentally weak, I mean weak as in- having low purchasing power against the worlds reserve currency, which happens to be the USD at the moment(oil is priced in USD). 




> International Banks should hedge their trades and the sensible ones do and did do, a simple explanation is reduce exposure to market shifts.
> 
> And that worked reasonably well until the bonus hungry greedy Yanks across the pond completely fucked up the world markets with wild derivative trading and imaginary securities topped off by the sub prime market trading which tipped everything over the edge.
> 
> You're confusing International Market currency trading with Domestic Fiscal policies the two are not the same and its obvious your talking out of your posterior old chap


I am not confusing anything. YOU are just as confused as Butterfly. You have no idea how the world markets work and how they effect a country.

----------


## The Bold Rodney

> You don't even understand what I mean by "weak currency" I did not mean fundamentally weak, I mean weak as in- having low purchasing power against the worlds reserve currency, which happens to be the USD at the moment(oil is priced in USD).


I am not confused and the reason I "don't even have any reasons why it is "not as simple as that" ? Is because it's bloody obvious to anyone who knows anything about the markets!

When and if you Americans ever realise there's another world outside of Manhattan the better off we'll all be and probably a lot safer!

----------


## socal

[quote=The Bold Rodney;1549634]


> It is going to take some time for people like you to realize that gold and silver is the only real money. Gold IS money, paper IS NOT money, the digits that represent the virtual value of your bank account HAVE NO INTRINSIC VALUE.





> Are you feeling ok, surely you're not at all well?
> 
> Nobody has mentioned paper money and it's obvious you know nothing about financial markets or any other markets for that matter


. 

lol, trust me, ITS YOU that knows nothing about markets.




> And what *value* my learned friend do electronic trades or anonymous matching trades have? Are you saying that any trade that doesn't use Gold or Siver has no intrinsic value?


Do you even know what I mean by intrinsic value ? In an unbacked fiat system, the central bank can create money out of thin air. It can print it or enter it into a computer database. If it can be created for free then it has no intrinsic value. 




> You don't answer any points put to you ever and by the way how did you get on at Wallmart shopping with gold?


By exchanging it for the local currency and then using it to buy what I want. This is too deep of a subject for you. I am not saying that gold or silver need to be used as a medium of exchange, I am saying that if there is no percentage of metal backing the reserves of a central bank, then the currency it is issueing only has virtual value. 




> And virtual currency trading has SFA to do with your original post or what I posted, your surfing the net and reading the marketing spin too much.
> 
> Take two tablets (NO THREE) and go to bed and hopefully you'll feel better later but bed rest is not a fix for mental illness, remember that


haha, remember when the baht crashed in value in 1997 ? Do you think the value of gold in Thailand also crashed ? NO, IT STAYED THE SAME BECAUSE IT HAS INTRINSIC VALUE. After the baht crashed, if somebody that bought gold a week before the crash, came back and exchanged the gold for the new devalued baht, they lost no purchasing power. The person holding the baht cash lost tons of purchasing power.

----------


## The Bold Rodney

> haha, remember when the baht crashed in value in 1997 ? Do you think the value of gold in Thailand also crashed ? NO, IT STAYED THE SAME BECAUSE IT HAS INTRINSIC VALUE.


No because they are different animals and at the risk of saying this again....

ONE IS A *CURRENCY* AND THE OTHER IS A *COMMODITY*, YOU HAVE AGREED WITH THAT IN THE SENTENCE ABOVE YOU *DIMWIT*!

I never thought I'd ever have to admit this but I actually feel some sympathy for Butterfly having read your posts and I'm not going to waste effort discussing something that's patently obvious you will never be able to grasp!

Take the tablets and take them sooooooooooon!  :deadhorsebig:

----------


## nikster

It's all about China... China is the manufacturing hub for the entire world, but wages there rise at an unbelievable rate, so the low wage factories "spill over" to other countries with similar conditions. And that means SEA. Vietnam not looking so good now, so the other SEA countries - and their currencies - rise.

Long term, barring catastrophic events, the trend is for a great leveling out of wages and incomes around the world. Why should an unskilled worker in the USA make more money than an unskilled worker in Thailand? They shouldn't, and they won't, it's only a matter of time. Small discrepancies will remain - perhaps 50% - 100%. A 500% or 1000% discrepancy doesn't make any sense. 

Anyway this is my view, but I guess my bets are hedged naturally, I make USD - very sad right now - but I have most of my assets in Thailand which evens it out.

----------


## The Bold Rodney

> Anyway this is my view, but I guess my bets are hedged naturally, I make USD - very sad right now - but I have most of my assets in Thailand which evens it out.


I understand what you're saying but it's not about who manufactures what and where, its much bigger than that.

Whether we like it or not we have only one working system namely "capitalism" and that's what makes the world go round where finance and all our daily lives are concerned.

It used to work reasonably well then some years back "free market forces" were advocated and encouraged as the perfect way to expand markets worldwide, increase volumes and drive up profits for the West.

Unfortunately shortly after the "Big Bang"  university academics, greedy traders invented ways to dream up many more instuments, complex animals such as derrivatives and that's where thing's slowly began to fall apart. Risk and exposure was far more difficult to understand and those difficulties were compounded by 24 hour trading. Volumes were the Gods and on paper it looked infallible and bonus payments were awarded on that basis not performance related.

Many of the older schooled bankers failed to understand what the so called whizz kids were doing, not that it mattered as long as the banks were making lots of money.

Perfect example Barings bank in London (the oldest and most snobbish merchant bank in London) brought down to it's knees by a little known trader Nick Leeson, he ran rings round the management and only because they didn't understand how the markets had changed or the banks business at the sharp end. 

To summarise...toffy nosed pillocks at the top in Baring's were family appointed either by marriage or decendancy and it couldn't have happened to a biger bunch of conceited c*nts! Even the barrow boy traders there considered themselves the elite" The bank collapsing was a case of pride coming before a very big fall and we have yet to see what happens with the so called Elite here.

----------


## callippo

I presented this 200 pound travellers cheque at a money changers near Thaphae Gate about 18 months ago, and they only gave me 9600 for it.

not so long before, that same item would have got me almost 15000.

I thought fuck that and left the country a few days later. I haven't been back since. No hard feelings of course, but money doesn't talk, it walks.

----------


## callippo

> but I have most of my assets in Thailand which evens it out.


it does for them, but not for you. You have no assets in Thailand unless you're Thai.

----------


## The Bold Rodney

> I presented this 200 pound travellers cheque at a money changers near Thaphae Gate about 18 months ago, and they only gave me 9600 for it. not so long before, that same item would have got me almost 15000.


Maybe five or six years back 15,000, but yes there's been a rapid recent decline in the value of the pound and not only against the Baht and of course the disparity has been worsened by the strenght of the Baht.

After thirteen years or thereabouts of "New Labour" the UK's spent out and one attempt the Moron had at his disposal in order to reduce inflation and paper over the cracks was to weaken the domestic £ currency and that's what Gordon the Moron did.

I will not grind on about wasted recources, the decimated pension funds, the snouts in the troughs at Westminster, the reckless spending, the PC brigades and their wasteful grants etc. etc. because it's boring although true.

And it's interesting to see one or two posters on this site banging on about Thai vote buying, that's exactly what "New Labour" did when they invested heavily in the North of England, Midlands...and other areas of labour support. Maybe a little more sofisticated than a 500 Baht note in the hand but the principle is exactly the same.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> haha, remember when the baht crashed in value in 1997 ? Do you think the value of gold in Thailand also crashed ? NO, IT STAYED THE SAME BECAUSE IT HAS INTRINSIC VALUE.
> 
> 
> No because they are different animals and at the risk of saying this again....
> 
> ONE IS A *CURRENCY* AND THE OTHER IS A *COMMODITY*, YOU HAVE AGREED WITH THAT IN THE SENTENCE ABOVE YOU *DIMWIT*!
> 
> ...


Good, you decide to shut up, a little late though, I already proved to you that you are an idiot.

The government likes people like you because they can go into prepetual debt while debasing your currency without you noticing. You don't notice because you don't understand how markets, central banking, and fractional reserve banking work.

----------


## socal

[quote=The Bold Rodney;1549659]


> Anyway this is my view, but I guess my bets are hedged naturally, I make USD - very sad right now - but I have most of my assets in Thailand which evens it out.





> I understand what you're saying but it's not about who manufactures what and where, its much bigger than that.
> 
> Whether we like it or not we have only one working system namely "capitalism" and that's what makes the world go round where finance and all our daily lives are concerned.
> 
> It used to work reasonably well then some years back "free market forces" were advocated and encouraged as the perfect way to expand markets worldwide, increase volumes and drive up profits for the West.
> 
> Unfortunately shortly after the "Big Bang" university academics, greedy traders invented ways to dream up many more instuments, complex animals such as derrivatives and that's where thing's slowly began to fall apart. Risk and exposure was far more difficult to understand and those difficulties were compounded by 24 hour trading. Volumes were the Gods and on paper it looked infallible and bonus payments were awarded on that basis not performance related.


No you fool, it was only shortly after THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY WENT OFF THE GOLD STANDARD. With no constraints on the creation of money, there is no limit to what can be done. That is what we are witnessing now. Nobody is saying we need a gold standard for all money but central banks should have a gold reserve percentage requirement in order to put some limit on how much money can enter the system.



> Many of the older schooled bankers failed to understand what the so called whizz kids were doing, not that it mattered as long as the banks were making lots of money.


There have been wizz kids all through history, that is the dumbest explanation I have ever heard. When the whole world is on a fiat system, where no currency has any intrinsic value and there is no limit on how much money can be created, this is what you get. 



> Perfect example Barings bank in London (the oldest and most snobbish merchant bank in London) brought down to it's knees by a little known trader Nick Leeson, he ran rings round the management and only because they didn't understand how the markets had changed or the banks business at the sharp end.


No, that bank was over levered,  just like most of them. It would not have been possible to create that much leverage under a gold standard. 




> To summarise...toffy nosed pillocks at the top in Baring's were family appointed either by marriage or decendancy and it couldn't have happened to a biger bunch of conceited c*nts! Even the barrow boy traders there considered themselves the elite" The bank collapsing was a case of pride coming before a very big fall and we have yet to see what happens with the so called Elite here.


 :mid:

----------


## socal

> I presented this 200 pound travellers cheque at a money changers near Thaphae Gate about 18 months ago, and they only gave me 9600 for it.
> 
> not so long before, that same item would have got me almost 15000.
> 
> I thought fuck that and left the country a few days later. I haven't been back since. No hard feelings of course, but money doesn't talk, it walks.


You lost purchasing power that the Thai's gained. You got poorer and they got richer.

How do you like that devalued currency ? Why would Thai's think any different ?

----------


## The Bold Rodney

> Good, you decide to shut up, a little late though, I already proved to you that you are an idiot.


You make absolute stupid posts...again and again and you never answer any point that's put to you, read what you wrote again and you will see you contradicted your own argument, notice I didn't use the word reasoning.

All you do is drone on and on trying to cloud the issue with unnecessarily confusing posts, you don't have to take my word for the fact that Gold is NOT a currency ask a trader, that is if you know any traders?

You didn't take those tablets did you?

----------


## The Bold Rodney

> No, that bank was over levered, just like most of them. It would not have been possible to create that much leverage under a gold standard


 
You are without doubt a fool, please just try the tablets once they may work but I sincerely doubt they will!

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> Good, you decide to shut up, a little late though, I already proved to you that you are an idiot.
> 
> 
> You make absolute stupid posts...again and again and you never answer any point that's put to you, read what you wrote again and you will see you contradicted your own argument, notice I didn't use the word reasoning.
> 
> All you do is drone on and on trying to cloud the issue with unnecessarily confusing posts, you don't have to take my word for the fact that Gold is NOT a currency ask a trader, that is if you know any traders?
> 
> You didn't take those tablets did you?


I already said, if you can exchange it for cash in any country in the world then it is a currency. Commodities are consumed, gold is not. All gold that has ever been mined still exists today.

Paper is also a commodity, try and explain to me that paper is NOT a commodity

----------


## The Bold Rodney

Read it and don't bore me anymore with your inane arguments, your trying to appear knowledgeable when all your doing is making yourself look completely stupid.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment

The *gold market* is also subject to speculation as other *commodities* are, especially through the use of futures contracts and derivatives.

Forget the tablets..take your computer back to the store you bought it from and ask them for a refund, if they query why, just tell them your too stupid to own one!  :rofl: 

P.S. there are HARD (oil, gas, metals etc.) and SOFT (sugar, tea, cocoa etc.) commodities and you can consume both in many different ways you don't actually eat them (maybe you do?) but they are still traded as commodities!  :mid:

----------


## callippo

[quote=socal;1549702]


> How do you like that devalued currency ? Why would Thai's think any different ?


it's Thais, you moron, not Thai's. 

that UK currency isn't peforming quite as bad elsewhere as it is Thailand. The baht is stronger than the rest. Hence they don't get the eight thousand of them I used to drop off there every year. Some other [at][at][at][at] is going to get that.

----------


## Butterfly

can I take a bar of Iron and do my grocery with them ? I mean it has an intrinsic value, doesn't it ?   :Razz: 

socal being your typical American nutter, watch Faux news and think he has all the answers  :Razz:

----------


## socal

> Read it and don't bore me anymore with your inane arguments, your trying to appear knowledgeable when all your doing is making yourself look completely stupid.
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment
> 
> The *gold market* is also subject to speculation as other *commodities* are, especially through the use of futures contracts and derivatives.
> 
> Forget the tablets..take your computer back to the store you bought it from and ask them for a refund, if they query why, just tell them your too stupid to own one! 
> 
> P.S. there are HARD (oil, gas, metals etc.) and SOFT (sugar, tea, cocoa etc.) commodities and you can consume both in many different ways you don't actually eat them (maybe you do?) but they are still traded as commodities!


Oil, gas or sugar are not accepted as capital at any banks.

----------


## socal

[quote=callippo;1549718]


> Originally Posted by callippo
> 
> 
> How do you like that devalued currency ? Why would Thai's think any different ?
> 
> 
> it's Thais, you moron, not Thai's. 
> 
> that UK currency isn't peforming quite as bad elsewhere as it is Thailand. The baht is stronger than the rest. Hence they don't get the eight thousand of them I used to drop off there every year. Some other [at][at][at][at] is going to get that.


They can afford to not get your 8000 .

----------


## crippen

Just remember:   all the rules are in flux at the moment!   Experience in not necessarily a good thing. ::chitown::

----------


## socal

> can I take a bar of Iron and do my grocery with them ? I mean it has an intrinsic value, doesn't it ? 
> 
> socal being your typical American nutter, watch Faux news and think he has all the answers


Gold is a currency with intrinsic value. Good luck with that iron ata bank.

----------


## Butterfly

So does Iron  :mid: 

actually you can do more with Iron and Steel than you can with Gold, and therefore has greater intrinsic value, but a different price

again what was your point ?  :mid:

----------


## Rural Surin

> can I take a bar of Iron and do my grocery with them ? I mean it has an intrinsic value, doesn't it ?


Can't eat it. The only reality is that such invented values and worth is akin to the imaginary wealth in which we place such.

----------


## Rural Surin

> So does Iron 
> 
> actually you can do more with Iron and Steel than you can with Gold, and therefore has greater intrinsic value, but a different price
> 
> again what was your point ?


His obvious point is that he, like most, follow convention blindly as their standard of bare. Without lending to alternatives.

----------


## socal

> So does Iron 
> 
> actually you can do more with Iron and Steel than you can with Gold, and therefore has greater intrinsic value, but a different price
> 
> again what was your point ?


Gold has been money for thousands of years. It evolved through the barter system as the most marketable good. 

Gold is the most marketable good known to mankind. More things can be paid for with gold then any other element. No other commodity shares this legacy.

----------


## Thetyim

> No other commodity shares this legacy.


Salt.

Roman soldiers were paid in salt and is the origin of the word salary

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> Originally Posted by The Bold Rodney
> 
> 
> Read it and don't bore me anymore with your inane arguments, your trying to appear knowledgeable when all your doing is making yourself look completely stupid.
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment
> 
> The *gold market* is also subject to speculation as other *commodities* are, especially through the use of futures contracts and derivatives.
> 
> ...


 
If you mean capital as provided by a customer - say as collateral for a loan, then yes, commodities can be used. Sacks of sugar emptied onto the banking hall floor won't be welcome. It depends on the instrument. A holding in the NYSE listed oil ETF would likely qualify for a margining rate in the same way as the gold ETF is marginable.

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> Originally Posted by Butterfly
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by socal
> ...


Why don't you say, gold is a "quasi-currency". Because as you point out, you first have to convert it into legal tender (meaning: banknotes and coin) before one can use it as a medium of exchange.

----------


## Rural Surin

> Gold has been money for thousands of years. It evolved through the barter system as the most marketable good. 
> 
> Gold is the most marketable good known to mankind. More things can be paid for with gold then any other element. No other commodity shares this legacy.


One might recheck historical comparatives, as silver played a greater role in worldwide trading development and universal bartering standard more so than gold for centuries. The *gold thing* is just a recent occurrence - the last 300 years. There was a time, when "practical" goods were applied as more valued and worthy than metallic wealth.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
>  
> Gold has been money for thousands of years. It evolved through the barter system as the most marketable good. 
> 
> Gold is the most marketable good known to mankind. More things can be paid for with gold then any other element. No other commodity shares this legacy.
> 
> 
> One might recheck historical comparatives, as silver played a greater role in worldwide trading development and universal bartering standard more so than gold for centuries. The *gold thing* is just a recent occurrence - the last 300 years. There was a time, when "practical" goods were applied as more valued and worthy than metallic wealth.


totally wrong. silver was used more by the average person but the rich always use gold. Practical goods are not a medium of exchange

----------


## Rural Surin

> Originally Posted by Rural Surin
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by socal
> ...


You seem to come from the Eurocentric-only provision of historic perspective. No worries, a common hindrance to reality as it applies to world history.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by Butterfly
> ...


are you aware of what a note even is ?

-a written promise to pay a sum of money or a written acknowledgment of a debt from which a promise of payment can be inferred. 

In other words, when you hold fiat currency, you are always holding somebody elses liability. Not the same with gold, gold is nobodys liability.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by The Bold Rodney
> ...


no.

nothing you just listed is a medium of exchange.

Look, gold will always win out on any of these arguments, to think otherwise is fucking wrong even if you personally dont agree.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> No other commodity shares this legacy.
> 
> 
> Salt.
> 
> Roman soldiers were paid in salt and is the origin of the word salary


what about now ? 

I said legacy didnt i ?

Go to your local bank with a bag of fucking table salt and see if they will take it in exchange.

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> Originally Posted by The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by socal
> ...


Gold is not legal tender. It can be converted easily into legal tender once assayed. 

A failure to be classified as Legal Tender means that you cannot legally demand that someone accepts it in settlement of an obligation. (Regardless of whether you are American and can shout really really loudly that you are _fucking_ right, and they are _fucking_ wrong)

Yes I am aware what a bank note is, and i'm aware that a sterling five pound note is no longer an obligation to deliver five lbs of bullion. 

Your stubborness in not acknowledging the gaps in which you express your case is remarkable. Why are you behaving in such a patronising way?

You seem to be a living metaphor for 'a little knowledge is a dangerous thing'. 
.

----------


## Butterfly

> Go to your local bank with a bag of fucking table salt and see if they will take it in exchange.


I might be mistaken, but I think it's illegal for a bank to receive Gold from retail customers, they can only be exchanged through specialized dealers. Banks do not accept Gold and pay you for it. So your whole arguments seems to be on thin air as usual.

Have you tried to deposit Gold at your local bank ? see what they say. In Europe, it's illegal to "hold" gold bullion, they can only be held in a bank custody, basically a line on your account, not different from everything else. Which means if everything goes to hell, you still don't have access to your Gold.

I believe in the US the procedure to buy Gold bullion is also regulated, obviously they don't want people to start stashing gold in their basement. It's part of the leaking theory of currency and money.

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

^

You can hold bullion, Kruger Rands, Sovereigns no problem in the UK. There may be a VAT cost though to acquire the physical. 

In my youth, there were some restrictions even on collecting gold coins but none today.

----------


## Butterfly

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> No other commodity shares this legacy.
> 
> 
> Salt.
> 
> Roman soldiers were paid in salt and is the origin of the word salary


excellent point, salt was the gold then  :Razz: 

look at what happened to salt since, it has been demonized  :Smile:

----------


## Butterfly

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
>  
> Gold has been money for thousands of years. It evolved through the barter system as the most marketable good. 
> 
> Gold is the most marketable good known to mankind. More things can be paid for with gold then any other element. No other commodity shares this legacy.
> 
> 
> One might recheck historical comparatives, as silver played a greater role in worldwide trading development and universal bartering standard more so than gold for centuries. The *gold thing* is just a recent occurrence - the last 300 years. There was a time, when "practical" goods were applied as more valued and worthy than metallic wealth.


you actually raise a really interesting question. What makes people think that Gold or Silver has any intrinsic value as a currency ? it only has value for the "buyer power" it represent and that can only happens if that "value" perception is shared

Barter is different, value is right there, in the eye of the beholder, in its utility. Silver as a currency ? what's its intransic utility ? none, only if it's backed up by a common believe that it has value, basically the same idea behind issuing legal tender notes. Silver or Gold as a currency is only "accepted" if it's legal tender, not because it has "intrinsic value".

----------


## Butterfly

> ^
> 
> You can hold bullion, Kruger Rands, Sovereigns no problem in the UK. There may be a VAT cost though to acquire the physical. 
> 
> In my youth, there were some restrictions even on collecting gold coins but none today.


are you sure ? I believe there is a EU directive that "restrict" the holding of gold by individuals. This is certainly the case in France. Could this be another case of EU directives not being applied with another UK exception ?  :Razz:

----------


## Nostradamus

^ let's hope so. The UN is not our father!

----------


## drawp

Let's forget about this gold argument for a second.  It's down to almost under 31 THB to 1 USD

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

The rumour spooking the Thai capital markets is that some sort of Government intervention is going to come, specifically the rumour mentions some sort of currency control.

----------


## The Bold Rodney

> Let's forget about this gold argument for a second.


No lets forget it forever....boringggggggggggggggg....does anyone happen to know if that pr*ck social has returned his computer to the store?  :bananaman:

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> Originally Posted by drawp
> 
> Let's forget about this gold argument for a second.
> 
> 
> No lets forget it forever....boringggggggggggggggg....does anyone happen to know if that pr*ck social has returned his computer to the store?


Seconded. 

I think enough already on the _'listening to Socal'_ trade.

----------


## Moonraker

I'm finding it quite amusing.

Quite how somebody could be so fundamentally wrong yet still continue to stand their ground is beyond me.

----------


## Butterfly

> Its just the opposite of 1997. In 1997 Thailand had huge forign debt and current account deficits. Today Thailand has huge forign exchange reserves and trade surpluses.


it's the exact opposite which can bring the exact same result, a financial crisis. Right before the 1997 devaluation, THB was getting stronger. You don't understand that both extremes will bring the same disastrous economic consequences. It's not a linear world, things go in circle here.





> I never thought I'd ever have to admit this but I actually feel some sympathy for Butterfly having read your posts and I'm not going to waste effort discussing something that's patently obvious you will never be able to grasp!


It's ok, I find him quite amusing. You should take his posts for what they are, a delusional American  :Razz:

----------


## The Bold Rodney

> haha, remember when the baht crashed in value in 1997 ? Do you think the value of gold in Thailand also crashed ? NO, IT STAYED THE SAME BECAUSE IT HAS INTRINSIC VALUE. After the baht crashed, if somebody that bought gold a week before the crash, came back and exchanged the gold for the new devalued baht, they lost no purchasing power. The person holding the baht cash lost tons of purchasing power.


*One of Social's absolute classics............pure genius.....took me a long time to stop laughing after reading this master piece!*

*I wonder if there's a chance he's been spotted by the current government yet? Or maybe Thaksin's read what Social writes and will headhunt him? Just can't wait to read his next post!* 
 :smiley laughing:

----------


## Roger Ramjet

In Thailand, Gold is as well a being an Internationally traded commodity, is also effectively a currency in most large department stores.  Many Thai women sell or trade gold to the department store Jewellery depatments, at Internationally ruling daily rates!  So all you disbelievers  are wrong......24 carat gold of course, and hence your wife or girlfriend won't want other than 24 carat gold items, which can be weighed and easily traded! 
..... :bananaman:

----------


## aging one

> In Thailand, Gold is as well a being an Internationally traded commodity, is also effectively a currency in most large department stores. Many Thai women sell or trade gold to the department store Jewellery depatments, at Internationally ruling daily rates! So all you disbelievers are wrong......24 carat gold of course, and hence your wife or girlfriend won't want other than 24 carat gold items, which can be weighed and easily traded! .....


At gold shops yes, but not in department stores.  Try it in Central or Robinsons.

----------


## Butterfly

local Thai take Gold as an investment to store value, but don't think the price is international, it's mostly a local thing

can you pay in Gold at TESCO ? don't think so, so it's NOT a currency

can you deposit Gold in your bank account directly ? same, not possible, it needs to be exchanged first like any other commodities

----------


## Moonraker

> In Thailand, Gold is as well a being an Internationally traded commodity, is also effectively a currency in most large department stores.  Many Thai women sell or trade gold to the department store Jewellery depatments, at Internationally ruling daily rates!  So all you disbelievers  are wrong......24 carat gold of course, and hence your wife or girlfriend won't want other than 24 carat gold items, which can be weighed and easily traded! 
> .....


So you are saying that you can buy and sell gold at a jewellery shop.

Whooda thunk it eh!

If you go the right car dealership, you can buy and sell cars. Does that make cars a currency?

----------


## The Bold Rodney

> In Thailand, Gold is as well a being an Internationally traded commodity, is also effectively a currency in most large department stores.


Everyone knows you can buy and sell gold in these places, you can buy the gold with your credit card and exchange it for cash immediately less a substantial % charge of course.

But that does NOT make Gold a currency, it's a comodity and an asset used as a security. 

Can we just forget this now and talk about the weather instead?

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> can you pay in Gold at TESCO ? don't think so, so it's NOT a currency


This is such a dumb argument. 

All because Socal won't accept that a gold nugget isn't Legal Tender.

----------


## aging one

and then roger ramjet comes along and tries to back it up with gibberish.

----------


## Norton

> Can we just forget this now and talk about the weather instead?


Roiet. Heavy rain and lightning. 28C.

Bangkok Bank - 30.74           baht to USD.

----------


## lom

> It's ok, I find him quite amusing. You should take his posts for what they are, a delusional American


We've got a new BkkAndrew  :bananaman:

----------


## The Bold Rodney

> Roiet. Heavy rain and lightning. 28C.


Thank you very refreshing.

----------


## crippen

Chucking it down in Korat too!
1.00 GBP	=	47.5530 THB.

----------


## The Bold Rodney

> Chucking it down in Korat too! 1.00 GBP = 47.5530 THB.


Ohhhhhh for the good old days, no climate change, no unrest, no instablity in the markets, no poverty, everything was just perrrrrfect!

That is until everyone got wealthier, the fat cats got fatter and political correctness became the new religion, worshipped by do gooders, accademics and appeasers the whole world over and muslims suddenly had to learn to read in order to claim their benefits! 

Got fuck all to do with Gold Nuggets, Thai Baht just thought I'd have a quick rant.

----------


## Butterfly

> Originally Posted by Butterfly
> 
> It's ok, I find him quite amusing. You should take his posts for what they are, a delusional American
> 
> 
> We've got a new BkkAndrew


isn't this a blessing  :Smile:

----------


## socal

[quote=The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog;1549971]


> Originally Posted by The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by socal
> ...





> Gold is not legal tender. It can be converted easily into legal tender once assayed. 
> 
> A failure to be classified as Legal Tender means that you cannot legally demand that someone accepts it in settlement of an obligation. (Regardless of whether you are American and can shout really really loudly that you are _fucking_ right, and they are _fucking_ wrong)


The reason it is not legal tender is because governments and central banks dont want it to be. Also, it does not have to be legal tender to serve its purpose.



> Yes I am aware what a bank note is, and i'm aware that a sterling five pound note is no longer an obligation to deliver five lbs of bullion. 
> Your stubborness in not acknowledging the gaps in which you express your case is remarkable. Why are you behaving in such a patronising way?
> You seem to be a living metaphor for 'a little knowledge is a dangerous thing'.


I am not expressing a case. If you ever want to know anything about money, markets or macroeconomics you must understand the  unique role gold plays.

the reason i got pissed off is because it seems like people are just trying to wind me up without even thinking about the subject.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> Go to your local bank with a bag of fucking table salt and see if they will take it in exchange.
> 
> 
> I might be mistaken, but I think it's illegal for a bank to receive Gold from retail customers, they can only be exchanged through specialized dealers. Banks do not accept Gold and pay you for it. So your whole arguments seems to be on thin air as usual.
> 
> Have you tried to deposit Gold at your local bank ? see what they say. In Europe, it's illegal to "hold" gold bullion, they can only be held in a bank custody, basically a line on your account, not different from everything else. Which means if everything goes to hell, you still don't have access to your Gold.
> 
> I believe in the US the procedure to buy Gold bullion is also regulated, obviously they don't want people to start stashing gold in their basement. It's part of the leaking theory of currency and money.


Yes, gold is a threat to the governments and central banks debt based fiat regimes. If enough people understand that if they collect their pay check and instantly convert it to gold, that they will never lose purchasing power of their earned money because the central bank cannot debase the gold by printing it. Central banks can only debase and dilute the fiat currency and they do this to devalue the debt of the government.

----------


## Rural Surin

Is their plentiful physical gold {and projected future found gold} to reflect the very grotesque physical {and seemingly imaginary} wealth? Probably not. So what's the anxious discussion all about. Real wealth and value is about credit, illusion, and magic. Creating an imaginary wealth from nothing.....ain't we special?

----------


## StrontiumDog

*Bangkok Post : BoT gets greenlight to curb baht's appreciation
*

*BoT gets greenlight to curb baht's appreciation*

Published:  9/09/2010 at 04:48 PMOnline news: Economics

 Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said on  Thursday he had given the Bank of Thailand guidelines for introducing  measures to curb the value of the Thai baht, if necessary.


 “I have told the central bank that it can take measures to control  the foreign direct investment inflow and outflow to prevent the baht  from fluctuating too heavily," said Mr Abhisit.

It was possible  that the currency would continue to strengthen, but he could not say  whether it would reach 29 baht to the US dollar, as speculated.

The  chairman of the House finance, banking and financial institutions  committee, Puea Thai MP for Chiang Mai Surapong Towichakchaikul, on  Thursday afternoon called on the government to oversee the baht’s value.

Mr Surapong said the baht reached 30.85 baht to the US dollar today.

He warned that if no action was taken, the export sector would be severely affected in the fourth quarter of the year.

The  committee chairman called on Prime Minister Abhisit and Finance  Minister Korn Chatikavanij to clearly state what measures would be  applied.

Bank of Thailand assistant governor Paiboon  Kittisrikangwan said the baht’s rise in value has no impact on the  economic stability and growth potential.

Mr Paiboon said even  though the Thai currency continues to strengthen, it will not lead to  economic instability or a deterioration of growth as the central bank is  capable of managing its value.

He said the BoT is duty-bound to  ensure that any change in value of the baht would not have an adverse  effect on the Thai economy, both short-term and long-term.

The  central bank will keep a close watch and will assess the impact of the  strong baht on the economy, and take into account all related factors.

“The  BoT will focus on stability of the economy by assessing whether the  economy can continue to grow under the changing factors, including  changes in the global monetary market and foreign exchange rates,” said  Mr Paiboon.

Earlier today, Thanawat Polwichai, director of the  Economic and Business Forecasting Centre at the University of the Thai  Chamber of Commerce, called on the central bank to clearly make known  how it would oversee the baht's value.

“The BoT should tell the public of its policy to curb the baht's value to suit the current economy,” Mr Thanawat said.

He  suggested the central bank introduce tax or other measures that have no  effect on the Thai stock market to ensure that the baht does not  fluctuate too much.

Mr Thanawat said if the Thai currency  strengthens to less than 30 baht to US dollar in the fourth quarter of  the year, Thailand would face damage of about 100 billion baht in  revenue lost in the export and tourism sectors. This would shrink gross  domestic product growth by about one percentage point.

The strong baht could also trim economic expansion in the third quarter of the year to less than three per cent, he added.

Thai  Chamber of Commerce vice chairman Pongsak Assasakul said BoT new  governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul should introduce measures to curb  foreign capital inflow to stabilise the value of Thai baht.

The  new BoT chief should also delay a plan by the Monetary Policy Committee  to further raise the repurchase rate, to prevent profit speculation on  the baht’s value, he said.

Since the beginning of the year the  Thai baht has strengthened by about six per cent, he said. The Thai  currency strengthened about 1.8 per cent in August.

He said the  baht's value is higher than Thailand’s trade competitors. In August, the  value of China’s yuan decreased 0.16 per cent, Indonesia’s rupiah went  down 0.41 per cent, Malaysia’s ringgit increase one per cent,  Philippines’ peso was also up one per cent, the Korean won increased  0.25 per cent and Singapore’s dollar went up 0.75 per cent.

“All these have affected the country’s exports," he said.

Mr Prasarn will take office on Oct 1, after the current Bot governor Tarisa Wattanagase retires at the end of September.

----------


## socal

[quote=Butterfly;1550010]


> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
>  
> Gold has been money for thousands of years. It evolved through the barter system as the most marketable good. 
> 
> Gold is the most marketable good known to mankind. More things can be paid for with gold then any other element. No other commodity shares this legacy.
> 
> 
> One might recheck historical comparatives, as silver played a greater role in worldwide trading development and universal bartering standard more so than gold for centuries. The *gold thing* is just a recent occurrence - the last 300 years. There was a time, when "practical" goods were applied as more valued and worthy than metallic wealth.





> you actually raise a really interesting question. What makes people think that Gold or Silver has any intrinsic value as a currency ? it only has value for the "buyer power" it represent and that can only happens if that "value" perception is shared


Thats right and gold has the longest history of having precived value. Fiat currencies always eventually have no value. the german mark, the argentine dollar, mexican peso, or thr zimbabwe dollar. that is just some very recent examples.



> Barter is different, value is right there, in the eye of the beholder, in its utility. Silver as a currency ? what's its intransic utility ? none, only if it's backed up by a common believe that it has value, basically the same idea behind issuing legal tender notes. Silver or Gold as a currency is only "accepted" if it's legal tender, not because it has "intrinsic value".


Gold has unique charicteristics that give it the best record(6000 years+) in the world for having a common belief in value.It is completely durable. It does not rust, tarnish or rot. And it is soft and malleable making it easily divisible when called upon for trade. It is rare and difficult to remove from the earth, which makes it impossible to debase any faster then you can mine it. Paper or virtual currencies have none of these charicteristics, that is why they don't stand the test of time.

more on that hereFOFOA: Search results for gold barter

----------


## socal

double post

----------


## socal

[quote=Butterfly;1550072]


> Its just the opposite of 1997. In 1997 Thailand had huge forign debt and current account deficits. Today Thailand has huge forign exchange reserves and trade surpluses.


it's the exact opposite which can bring the exact same result, a financial crisis. Right before the 1997 devaluation, THB was getting stronger. You don't understand that both extremes will bring the same disastrous economic consequences. It's not a linear world, things go in circle here.

No you moron. Its the US and the western world that is in those shoes now. The US has the HUGE forign debt and trade deficit. Its the US dollar and the Euro that is in danger of falling. Thailand is a creditor nation, not a debtor nation like in 1996. YOu don't know shit.

Its like saying the guy with all the money in the bank is in danger of going broke.  :deadhorsebig:

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by Roger Ramjet
> 
> 
> In Thailand, Gold is as well a being an Internationally traded commodity, is also effectively a currency in most large department stores. Many Thai women sell or trade gold to the department store Jewellery depatments, at Internationally ruling daily rates! So all you disbelievers are wrong......24 carat gold of course, and hence your wife or girlfriend won't want other than 24 carat gold items, which can be weighed and easily traded! 
> .....
> 
> 
> So you are saying that you can buy and sell gold at a jewellery shop.
> 
> ...


No. Gold is the most tradable and marketable good, not cars.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by Roger Ramjet
> 
> In Thailand, Gold is as well a being an Internationally traded commodity, is also effectively a currency in most large department stores. Many Thai women sell or trade gold to the department store Jewellery depatments, at Internationally ruling daily rates! So all you disbelievers are wrong......24 carat gold of course, and hence your wife or girlfriend won't want other than 24 carat gold items, which can be weighed and easily traded! .....
> 
> 
> At gold shops yes, but not in department stores. Try it in Central or Robinsons.


And the reason why people in third world countries understand money and gold better is because they have lived through events where fiat currencies lose half their value or go to zero.

----------


## chingching

retirees and tourists are all rethinking their plans to go elsewhere as the baht means Thailand becomes less of a bargain ,keep up the good work BOT

----------


## socal

> and then roger ramjet comes along and tries to back it up with gibberish.


hahaha, and this is in the very thread where westerners are getting poorer because their central banks are printing and debasing their fiat currency to bail out the retail banks.

If you save your money in gold, you will not realize any of these  losses of purchasing power that you are all complaining about.

----------


## socal

> Is their plentiful physical gold {and projected future found gold} to reflect the very grotesque physical {and seemingly imaginary} wealth? Probably not. So what's the anxious discussion all about. Real wealth and value is about credit, illusion, and magic. Creating an imaginary wealth from nothing.....ain't we special?


you have it backwards, its the US dollar that is imaginary wealth from nothing.

The only reason it became the reserve currency is BECAUSE IT WAS BACKED BY GOLD !!!

----------


## Seekingasylum

Oh for goodness sakes, enough already!

The economy of the world is based upon fiat banking. Period.

There is no gold standard, long since abandoned and nor will it ever return.

As a hedge, gold has a currency but like all hedges it has no application beyond the periphery which encompasses the whole. Without a core there is no useful hedge. A hedge only works with reference to a fixed point, the value of which will move albeit in unpredictable ways. That's why it's a hedge.

Gold has proved to be a good hedge but only within the past 10 years when the proverbial 3 legs of the market variously collapsed.

The current cycle of 7 years that began 2 years ago has been distorted by quantitative easing leached into the equation for no real economic reason beyond shoring up lame duck governments. This could never be sustained by any market rooted in any paradigm and so will be buried along with the notion that central banks can offset budget deficits ad infinitum.

There will be equilibrium, probably established within 5 years following which gold prices will decline to the point of insignificance. 

Personally, I should sell now ( ish ) but I could be wrong. :Smile:

----------


## socal

[quote=thegent;1550561]Oh for goodness sakes, enough already!




> The economy of the world is based upon fiat banking. Period.


since 1971, this is the first time in history btw, that the whole world has been on fiat currency.



> There is no gold standard, long since abandoned and nor will it ever return.
> 
> As a hedge, gold has a currency but like all hedges it has no application beyond the periphery which encompasses the whole. Without a core there is no useful hedge. A hedge only works with reference to a fixed point, the value of which will move albeit in unpredictable ways. That's why it's a hedge.


There is no core with fiat. If there is then prove it. Gold is the core. Gold is the fixed referance point




> Gold has proved to be a good hedge but only within the past 10 years when the proverbial 3 legs of the market variously collapsed.
> 
> The current cycle of 7 years that began 2 years ago has been distorted by quantitative easing leached into the equation for no real economic reason beyond shoring up lame duck governments. This could never be sustained by any market rooted in any paradigm and so will be buried along with the notion that central banks can offset budget deficits ad infinitum


.
What could never be sustained ?



> There will be equilibrium, probably established within 5 years following which gold prices will decline to the point of insignificance. 
> 
> Personally, I should sell now ( ish ) but I could be wrong.


Sell now and buy what ? 

US treasuries with no yield that have been in a bull market for 30 years ?

cash that is being diluted by the central banks  ? 

stocks ? Answer please, i really want to know.

----------


## Seekingasylum

Oh dear, you do have it bad.

Are you young? I suspect that may be the case but irrespective of your propensity for tin foil hattery the market will turn and intransigence is not a option. 

Currently, cash is king and bonds as a short lay by in the highway ain't such a bad place.

Nothing new under the sun but if you wish to bask in the glow of Au then please do so but the aura won't last for much longer. 

Hedges aren't permanent.

----------


## nedwalk

> Answer please, i really want to know.


For me personelly, and something that has been working for me for the last 15 years or so has been the dirt under my feet an what you can build upon it, for me this is far more tangable and profitable than any stocks or shares i hold

----------


## Seekingasylum

Buying land depends upon your horizon, I suppose.

Currently, in Thailand, paddy land is increasing at values that defy any analysis and I suspect markets in up country villages are being distorted by cash inflows from elsewhere other than indigenously financed Thai.

It's a bubble of course and quite artificial since the asset cannot return any legitimate dividend from either agricultural speculation or from extra urban development.

I spoke to a chap quite recently who was preparing to buy 1/2 a rai for 200,000 bt outside Surin for no other reason than it is was next to the road. That the road was going from nowhere to nowhere, where the only crop is one harvest of rice per year and that there were only so many pig farms one could develop didn't seem to matter to him until I explained that he would be paying a price similar to that obtained by arable land per acre in Gloucestershire. 

Perhaps he should be buying gold.

----------


## The Bold Rodney

> I spoke to a chap quite recently who was preparing to buy 1/2 a rai for 200,000


As you and I know (I think we do?) many farang's get carried away by the price of land in Thailand because let's face it a building plot anywhere in the UK would cost you a lot more than 200,000 Baht even with a pig farm and a road from nowhere to nowhere.

However, having spoken to a few guys here and seeing they bought hundreds of rai while the going was good they now regret doing so. They're working capital has vanished and the assets they hold (including buildings elsewhere) are virtually impossible to sell not least because their biding their time hoping for the next green horn to arrive..."with loads o money"

I suppose it's a partly case of hindsight but personally I can't understand why these aged farang's wanted to build empires when they could and should have been enjoying the sunshine and having an ice cold beer on their patios.

----------


## socal

[quote=thegent;1550563]Oh dear, you do have it bad.




> Are you young? I suspect that may be the case but irrespective of your propensity for tin foil hattery the market will turn and intransigence is not a option. 
> 
> Currently, cash is king and bonds as a short lay by in the highway ain't such a bad place.


hahaha, cash has never been diluted so fast in history. Talk about no reference point. Is this the same cash that is only backed by the full faith and CREDIT of the US government ? As the economy contracts, so does the tax revenue that services these bonds. All the while the government issues even more bonds because there is a keynesian running the show.

Cash and bonds, that is a bubble waiting to blow. The worst palce to put your money.





> Nothing new under the sun but if you wish to bask in the glow of Au then please do so but the aura won't last for much longer. 
> 
> Hedges aren't permanent.


you have allot to learn

----------


## The Bold Rodney

> The worst palce to put your money.


 



> you have allot to learn


 
Like a mad aunt, the Fed is slowly losing its marbles.

Kartik Athreya, senior economist for the Richmond Fed, has written a paper condemning *economic bloggers as chronically stupid* and a threat to public order.

He obviously knows all about you Social!  :rofl:

----------


## Butterfly

those gold bloggers and economic know it all blogs are indeed quite dangerous,

illiterate fools like socal think they got it all figured after one reading, and what pass for opinion is taken as facts,

it's a bit like Faux, it caters to a certain population

----------


## Butterfly

> It is completely durable. It does not rust, tarnish or rot. And it is soft and malleable making it easily divisible when called upon for trade.


so does mud, and your point is ?  :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic): 

that alone doesn't make it have a valuable intrinsic value, these can have properties in the industry, but as a mean of exchange ? again, drinking your own Kool aid. 

Actually the first reason it has any intrinsic value for primitive societies is because it looks nice. How about that for fundamental valuation ?  :Razz: 




> Its like saying the guy with all the money in the bank is in danger of going broke.


yes he is, if the bank is about to go broke and lend all his money to questionable creditors  :Smile: 




> No you moron. Its the US and the western world that is in those shoes now. The US has the HUGE forign debt and trade deficit. Its the US dollar and the Euro that is in danger of falling. Thailand is a creditor nation, not a debtor nation like in 1996. YOu don't know shit.


you are hilarious, the US is a net importer but run a huge excess of foreign capital inflows mostly because it's a better alternative than anywhere else you dummy. Why do you think US Treasury yield so little  :mid:

----------


## Butterfly

and a word about deflation from Marc Faber and how is cash not king when prices falls, contradicting our resident new Nobel laureate  :Razz: 




> On deflation: I'm a believer that the stock market lows of March 2009 will not be revisited. You have people like Robert Prechter who think the Dow will collapse to 700 because of debt deleveraging. Debt deleveraging could happen, but the Dow will not fall because of monetary policy. The Fed will keep everything inflated in nominal terms. And if the Dow does go to 700, you'll have more to worry about than your investments. All the banks will be bust. The government will be bust. You don't want cash if massive deflation happens. On the contrary: It will be worthless. You have to think very carefully about hardcore deflation.

----------


## Roger Ramjet

I have to agree with Nedwalks financial philosophy.....it is nice to be able to walk on your investment, build your house on your investment, and generally make physical use of it....I like most of us have some cash invested like that...Investing in a nice boat and living on it ....probably escaping lots of rates and taxes, also has some appeal to me,....... but buying my wife some gold really produces the best short term results, :Smile:  and each time she admires it I get more "benefits" :ssssh:   so... 

Gold has got a lot going for it compared with Fiat currencies, bonds or stock.

The jewellery gold encourages beautiful women to dress up and look beautiful, to show off their beautiful tits, for the majority of us to enjoy.

Industrial Gold has a huge future due to it's excellent electrical qualities, excellent low resistance conductivity, and corrosion resistance. Very rapid scientific advances are using increasing amounts of gold as the material of choice to make ever smaller semiconductor connections, printed circuit boards, etc. 

Investment gold has a universal financial language, and you can hold it in your hand......it's not a con man's dream in a paper bag.

But if you feel wqarm and fuzzy watching your virtual assets on your computer.....just don't go where the power may be switched off! .... :smiley laughing:

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
>  Answer please, i really want to know.
> 
> 
> For me personelly, and something that has been working for me for the last 15 years or so has been the dirt under my feet an what you can build upon it, for me this is far more tangable and profitable than any stocks or shares i hold


the reason that has been working for 15 years or so is because interest rates have never gone up in any meaningful way. Take away the falling interest rates and prices cannot be bid up. 

I do agree though, property has tangible value but you have to watch out where you buy. Property prices in the |US could easily fall another 30 or 40%. The Canadian and Aussy housing bubbles have not even popped yet. Prices could fall 50% in some of those places. But considering that they both have a more traditional banking system, it will take a more traditional recession to bring down prices. Interest rates have to go up, which is the inverse of bond prices falling. Simply put, those housing bubbles will last as long as the bond bubble.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> The worst palce to put your money.
> 
> 
>  
> 
> 
> 
> ...


obviously the Fed is backed into a corner and scared shitless. They know as long as the sheeple like you and butternuts don't undersatnd, that they can keep the game going a little while longer.

Here is another keynesian(Erin and the dipshit) vs Austrian(mike). \take your side

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

Faber thinks we should buy productive farmland.

There's money in pig breeding.

----------


## Nostradamus

> There's money in pig breeding.


Dunno about that, but the smell makes me feel all countryfied like.

----------


## socal

[quote=Butterfly;1550622]


> It is completely durable. It does not rust, tarnish or rot. And it is soft and malleable making it easily divisible when called upon for trade.





> so does mud, and your point is ? 
> 
> that alone doesn't make it have a valuable intrinsic value, these can have properties in the industry, but as a mean of exchange ? again, drinking your own Kool aid. 
> 
> Actually the first reason it has any intrinsic value for primitive societies is because it looks nice. How about that for fundamental valuation ?


Not only has gold's value *nev**er* vanished,*** it has remained *high* (relative to most physical things on a per-weight basis) for thousands of years; ancient Egyptians and others mined and used gold over 5,000 years ago. This brings us to the second answer for our question: *yes*, gold does have what can loosely or colloquially be termed intrinsic value, because gold has *intrinsic prop**erties* that humans value  and the "to humans" part of the statement is obvious, inherent to the nature of value, and may therefore be assumed. The *reasons* for humans to value gold, while not as fundamental as the reasons for cats to value mice, are nonetheless powerful and inherent in the nature of man and in the ability of gold to satisfy certain of man's needs and desires. There are many such needs and desires that gold satisfies better than anything else, and unlike paper money or tech stocks or most other things one might name, gold is also nearly indestructible  the gold you own today will likely still be here on Earth when the planet itself is destroyed by our dying, expanding sun billions of years from now (or by whatever *does* destroy this planet). Near-universal and timeless appeal combined with near-indestructibility and genuine rarity make gold special indeed. To





> Its like saying the guy with all the money in the bank is in danger of going broke.





> yes he is, if the bank is about to go broke and lend all his money to questionable creditors


Questionable borrowers, not creditors.

They have lent allot of money to the United states. They have allot of forex reserves denominated in the world reserve fiat currency. The US is broke, that currency is over valued. The Bank of thailand needs to divest themselves of US dollars before the US dollar takes a dive similar to the bahts dive in 1997. They need to buy more gold. What the hell else can they buy ? another broke western countries diluted, over valued currency ?



> No you moron. Its the US and the western world that is in those shoes now. The US has the HUGE forign debt and trade deficit. Its the US dollar and the Euro that is in danger of falling. Thailand is a creditor nation, not a debtor nation like in 1996. YOu don't know shit.





> you are hilarious, the US is a net importer but run a huge excess of foreign capital inflows mostly because it's a better alternative than anywhere else you dummy. Why do you think US Treasury yield so little


Because China and Thailand and most creditor nations have been buying US debt with their own currency to peg the the value or intervene. that is how you intervene in the currency markets. Thailand has stopped recycling their excess reserves to the US. THAT IS WHY THE BAHT IS RISING AND THE DOLLAR IS FALLING.

Now that everyone realizes that the US is broke, nobody wants US dollars but some of them are stuck. If they sell too fast there will be a run on the dollar and their holdings will lose value. If they wait and somebody else dumps(Russia) then they could lose allot on all their dollars. If they slowly sell and let the Keynesian Fed print money and buy, then they might be able to slowly diversify. 
That is why russia bought 22 tons of gold from the IMF in may and 16 more tons in July, because they DONT WANT DOLLARS.

----------


## socal

> and a word about deflation from Marc Faber and how is cash not king when prices falls, contradicting our resident new Nobel laureate 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 			
> 				On deflation: I'm a believer that the stock market lows of March 2009 will not be revisited. You have people like Robert Prechter who think the Dow will collapse to 700 because of debt deleveraging. Debt deleveraging could happen, but the Dow will not fall because of monetary policy. The Fed will keep everything inflated in nominal terms. And if the Dow does go to 700, you'll have more to worry about than your investments. All the banks will be bust. The government will be bust. You don't want cash if massive deflation happens. On the contrary: It will be worthless. You have to think very carefully about hardcore deflation.


haha

I guess you are not talking about me because I have said the exact same thing through this whole thread. You don't want to be in cash through inflation or deflation, you want to be in GOLD. FIAT CASH WILL BE WORTHLESS.

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

Can't we agree for a moratorium on yakking repetitively about gold (or take it over to a new topic), as I don't think any new points are being made now.

Rate is now 30.84

Unless there's intervention or capital controls, rate will be below 30 imminently.

----------


## Butterfly

it's going to 30, and the BOT can't do fuck all about it, like they couldn't in 1997

this signals a voluntary slow down in the Thai economy, from overheating

inflation is probably above target but they are not disclosing it, but we all know it's in the 10% range, at least for us farangs  :Razz: 

thank god the bar fine haven't changed much in the last 10 years, very stable price, those girls are a good investment  :Smile:

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> thank god the bar fine haven't changed much in the last 10 years, very stable price, those girls are a good investment


The currency strength does make barfines feel expensive.

----------


## Thaihome

^^ 
There's a lot it can do, but some options such as capital inflow controls, such as was tried a few years ago, would have bad impact on the SET.  I suspect they will try to continue with the sterilized interventions they have been doing so far, they will just step them up and continue to try and hide the domestic side of the operation. I could be wrong and they might just start selling lots of baht and increase the money supply and getting the economy going even more, taking the chance that inflation won't be a too big of a problem.
It is after all, getting close to an election and nothing helps a government get re-elected more then a hot economy.    
TH

----------


## socal

[quote=Butterfly;1550734]


> it's going to 30, and the BOT can't do fuck all about it, like they couldn't in 1997


"Doing something about it" like buying US dollars to devalue the baht(that is all currency intervention is) will make oil and all other commodities more expensive for people earning and saving baht. In case you didn't know, oil and all other commodities are priced in US dollars.




> this signals a voluntary slow down in the Thai economy, from overheating


No, it signals a transition to a more balanced economy with less relience on export and tourism. Because as commodities get cheaper for thai's, they have more descretinary income to spend on other things. 




> inflation is probably above target but they are not disclosing it, but we all know it's in the 10% range, at least for us farangs


yes at least for farangs, farang currency is falling against the baht.

----------


## socal

> ^^ 
> There's a lot it can do, but some options such as capital inflow controls, such as was tried a few years ago, would have bad impact on the SET. I suspect they will try to continue with the sterilized interventions they have been doing so far, they will just step them up and continue to try and hide the domestic side of the operation. I could be wrong and they might just start selling lots of baht and increase the money supply and getting the economy going even more, taking the chance that inflation won't be a too big of a problem.
> It is after all, getting close to an election and nothing helps a government get re-elected more then a hot economy. 
> TH


If what you mean by "a few years ago" is the late 90's then you have no idea what you are talking about. This is a totally different situation then the 90's.

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

He is not referring to the nineties. 

Study currency measures in Thailand in the noughties, then you won't even need to write aggressive posts like this, where you go flailing off in the wrong direction yelling that people don't know what they're talking about.

I agree Thaihome, Baht sales and expansion of the money supply is preferable to meddling with currency control.

----------


## Nostradamus

> It is after all, getting close to an election and nothing helps a government get re-elected more then a hot economy.


The only chance this government has of getting elected (not re-elected, they've never won a general election), is if they stack the odds so overwhelmingly in their favour it is impossible for anyone else to mount a serious challenge.

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> The only chance this government has of getting elected (not re-elected, they've never won a general election), is if they stack the odds so overwhelmingly in their favour it is impossible for anyone else to mount a serious challenge.


They have. They've done a fantastic job. 

Political censorship, army and judicial buy-in, demonising the Opposition at multiple levels, reinforcement of coalition ties, bringing over PT politicians, sorting out the cashflow channels to pay for it all.

Its text book. 

They look like a safe bet for the next election.

----------


## Butterfly

> Originally Posted by Butterfly
> 
> 
> 
> thank god the bar fine haven't changed much in the last 10 years, very stable price, those girls are a good investment 
> 
> 
> The currency strength does make barfines feel expensive.


don't tell me about it,

I also notice that a lot of bars are empty, or farangs just pay for their overpriced drinks no barfine,

drinks are now at par with a cafe on the Champs Elysees,

it doesn't compute,

----------


## Butterfly

> I suspect they will try to continue with the sterilized interventions they have been doing so far, they will just step them up and continue to try and hide the domestic side of the operation. I could be wrong and they might just start selling lots of baht and increase the money supply and getting the economy going even more, taking the chance that inflation won't be a too big of a problem.


but inflation is already a problem here, the poor aren't getting richer despite what socal claims, they are getting poorer and they see it when they go shopping at TESCO. They will have 2 choices: currency control, highly unpopular with global investors, or price control, popular locally but unpopular with global investors.

This is as bad as 1997, and it could have serious consequences in the next 12 months.




> It is after all, getting close to an election and nothing helps a government get re-elected more then a hot economy.


indeed, but you forget inflation, it's already fucking up everyone, mostly the poor.

----------


## socal

> He is not referring to the nineties. 
> 
> Study currency measures in Thailand in the noughties, then you won't even need to write aggressive posts like this, where you go flailing off in the wrong direction yelling that people don't know what they're talking about.
> 
> I agree Thaihome, Baht sales and expansion of the money supply is preferable to meddling with currency control.


Expansion of the money supply causes inflation. I dont think the BOT is interested in causing inflation.

If they already have an inflation problem, they need to contract the money supply by raising interest rates.

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

^^In that case, if Thais feel poor, perhaps they'll just print trillions of baht and give all of them THB 10 million each.  :Wink: 


^If they put up interest rates, then hot money inflows will push the baht even higher.

----------


## Butterfly

> they need to contract the money supply by raising interest rates.


which they just did, but that's not enough. The growth is not coming from inside but outside, and that is where they need exchange control to regulate the local businesses from overheating.

----------


## Butterfly

> ^If they put up interest rates, then hot money inflows will push the baht even higher.


which is happening right now, and this will cause the slow down in exports for local businesses. I suspect that the government statistics is seeing record exports with an aggressive upward trend. They need to regulate that before it crash eventually.

----------


## Butterfly

> ^^In that case, if Thais feel poor, perhaps they'll just print trillions of baht and give all of them THB 10 million each.


Mugabe tried that, didn't work too well  :Razz:

----------


## StrontiumDog

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255309100018

THB continues upward climb                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

BANGKOK, 10 September  2010 (NNT) - The Thai currency continued to rise this morning amid  investor speculation interest rates would adjust up at the end of this  year. 

The Thai baht opened at 30.86 THB per USD this morning, up from 30.89  THB at yesterday’s closing. The currency is shifting within the range of  30.83-30.85 THB and expected to continue appreciating. 

Despite permission from the prime minister for the Bank of Thailand to  start controlling capital flow, the market is continues to be dominated  by a foreign money inflow as speculators anticipate another interest  rate raise this year.  

Analysts expect the trend to persist with no external hindrance until  the central bank announces concrete control measures. Today, the baht  should move within the frame of 30.75-30.90 THB per USD.

----------


## Butterfly

the poor and small businesses will see a benefit in that with lower oil prices, an important component in the economy that usually crash profit margins and creates inflation when oil prices are rising in local nominal terms.

but in the meantime, core inflation is still present so it's not really a gain so they get fucked like everyone else, including the rich exporters.

----------


## socal

[quote=Butterfly;1550851]


> I suspect they will try to continue with the sterilized interventions they have been doing so far, they will just step them up and continue to try and hide the domestic side of the operation. I could be wrong and they might just start selling lots of baht and increase the money supply and getting the economy going even more, taking the chance that inflation won't be a too big of a problem.





> but inflation is already a problem here, the poor aren't getting richer despite what socal claims,


It might sound a little better to you this way..... If the baht is rising against the dollar, Thai's are getting poorer slower then Americans.



> they are getting poorer and they see it when they go shopping at TESCO. They will have 2 choices: currency control, highly unpopular with global investors, or price control, popular locally but unpopular with global investors


You are sure making a big deal out of 3.3% inflation. There are 2 things that the BOT can do to ease inflation. 
1)do not intervene in the currency markets and devalue the baht against the USD.(that would make commodities more expensive)
2)contract the money supply by raising interest rates.




> This is as bad as 1997, and it could have serious consequences in the next 12 months.


No, the US is as bad as Thailand WAS in 1997. Thailand is the creditor nation, not the debtor.

----------


## Butterfly

> You are sure making a big deal out of 3.3% inflation. There are 2 things that the BOT can do to ease inflation.
> 1)do not intervene in the currency markets and devalue the baht against the USD.(that would make commodities more expensive)
> 2)contract the money supply by raising interest rates.


but Thailand doesn't have a system to contract money supply, they don't have an active government Bond market and a strong system of monetary controls, just a marginal one. Currency control is a poor man solution.




> No, the US is as bad as Thailand WAS in 1997. Thailand is the creditor nation, not the debtor.


doesn't mean fuck all, debtor nation are usually source of growth, not the creditor. Why do you think they are creditors in the first place ?  :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

----------


## socal

> ^^In that case, if Thais feel poor, perhaps they'll just print trillions of baht and give all of them THB 10 million each. 
> 
> 
> ^If they put up interest rates, then hot money inflows will push the baht even higher.


 Its not the same as 1997. The run up years before 1997 where speculative in nature. The world and mainly the US has been in a downturn for a couple years now. Money is searching the globe for good balance sheets and real value , it is not speculative. That is why the Aussy, Canadian dollar and Norway krone  have all gone up too, because these countries have ok balance sheets and resorce assets.

----------


## socal

[quote=Butterfly;1550872]


> You are sure making a big deal out of 3.3% inflation. There are 2 things that the BOT can do to ease inflation.
> 1)do not intervene in the currency markets and devalue the baht against the USD.(that would make commodities more expensive)
> 2)contract the money supply by raising interest rates.





> but Thailand doesn't have a system to contract money supply, they don't have an active government Bond market and a strong system of monetary controls, just a marginal one. Currency control is a poor man solution.


They have a market, just like everyone else. 




> No, the US is as bad as Thailand WAS in 1997. Thailand is the creditor nation, not the debtor.





> doesn't mean fuck all, debtor nation are usually source of growth, not the creditor. Why do you think they are creditors in the first place ?


Now that is totally fucked.

The United States WAS the biggest creditor export nation in the world, but they where smart enough to demand all their exports be paid with gold. That is where their 20,000 ton gold hoard came from(8000 now). They didn't have all these problems like China and Thailand have now. Problems like trying to juggle the value of their currency while trying not to devalue some of the forign currency that they took in reserve. 

That gold hoard is also what got the world into accepting the US dollar as reserve currency after WW2. After the US export economy slowed down, it stated to import more. As they imported more, their gold reserves dwindled from 20,000 tons to 8000 tons. That is when Nixon got worried that the US was losing all of its gold and the value of the dollar with it, so he stopped backing the dollar with gold. The world, for some strange reason accepted this con and this is where we are today.

----------


## Butterfly

> They have a market, just like everyone else.


it's not an active market, like everyone else. Actually there are 4 major bond market in the world: the US, Japan, UK and Germany. The US is by far the greatest, which explain why it's so popular with foreigners, quite liquid, very active, huge, a lot of players. Japan is kind of big, UK used to be biggest in Europe, not sure if still now, and Germany is prestigious and used as the ECB benchmark. French is marginal but still substantial.

----------


## Butterfly

> Now that is totally fucked.


again, you need to understand the mechanics behind a net exporter and net importer. A net exporter will usually be a creditor, mostly because investing overseas with those reserves are a better deal, see China.

A net importer is usually a consumer, it has a market and therefore it is an attraction for all exporters, see USA. It's a debtor because it offers opportunties not found anywhere else (you only lend to the rich) and therefore capital flows in, lenders want to lend to Americans, it has growth and a market, not to the Chinese who can only exports and have limited investment choice internally, above all with strict government control. This may change eventually for China but not currently. 

Would you lend money to the Chinese ? I wouldn't  :Razz:

----------


## Seekingasylum

> Originally Posted by The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by Butterfly
> ...


Went to Baccarat in Soi Cowboy not so long ago and paid 150bt for a small bottle of Heineken. I was probably one of three falang, the rest were all Indians, Chinks and Japs.

Purchasing power vividly demonstrated.

The girls were somewhat listless and sporting bikinis so we left.

Frankly, Bangkok just isn't what it used to be.

----------


## Butterfly

^ same with Nana, a bit more quiet than the usual

maybe things are different in Pattaya,

----------


## StrontiumDog

*Thai exports feel pinch of rising baht; FTI calls for action
*

*Thai exports feel pinch of rising baht; FTI calls for action*


  วันศุกร์ ที่ 10 ก.ย. 2553 

   

   BANGKOK, Sept 10 – The continued appreciation of the Thai baht  is taking its toll on some Thai exports, the chairman of the Federation  of Thai Industries (FTI) said Friday, urging the Bank of Thailand to  respond with measures to cushion the impact.

 Citing a survey of 39 industrial groups affected by the baht  strengthening, Phayungsak Chartsutipol said the industries hardest hit  by the stronger baht accounts for 30 per cent of those surveyed,  including the clothing, textiles, ceramics, agricultural and processed  products industries.

 Among those heavily-affected industries -- 41 per cent of those surveyed  -- are sawmills, wood drying factories, air-conditioning parts, instant  foods, auto parts for export, and medicines.

 Industries less impacted, about 12 per cent of those surveyed, are industrial crafts and alternative energy.

 Machinery and metal work industries, accounting for five per cent  overall, are divided, both advantaged and disadvantaged by the baht  strengthening.

 The last group, some 12 per cent which were unaffected, are the  automotive and agricultural machinery industries, according to the  survey.

 Exporters who use local raw materials are now suffering loss and  dropping orders. Air conditioning exports fell seven per cent and auto  parts dropped by ten per cent, the FTI chairman said.

 The private sector asked for the Bank of Thailand to intervene in the  currency market to help the Thai baht stay close to other currencies in  the region. The government was also urged to establish a fund to reduce  currency risks and to cap freight charging rates and to allow freight  charge payment in foreign currencies.

 The baht traded at 30.81/84 to the US dollar on Friday, compared with 30.87/92 on Thursday.

 The currency has climbed 6.4 percent this year, the second-best  performance among Asia's 10 most-actively traded currencies, excluding  the yen.

 Bank of Thailand Governor Tarisa Watanagase last week asserted that the  baht has not been attacked despite mounting concerns, saying the  currency had strengthened in the same direction with other currencies in  the region.

 She said that currently the baht has strengthened by 6.4 per cent  compared with 3.5 per cent earlier, but it still moves in the same  direction with other currencies in the region. The strong economic  recovery is a key magnet to foreign capital inflows. (MCOT online news)

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> They have a market, just like everyone else.
> 
> 
> it's not an active market, like everyone else. Actually there are 4 major bond market in the world: the US, Japan, UK and Germany. The US is by far the greatest, which explain why it's so popular with foreigners, quite liquid, very active, huge, a lot of players. Japan is kind of big, UK used to be biggest in Europe, not sure if still now, and Germany is prestigious and used as the ECB benchmark. French is marginal but still substantial.


yep, looks like the US bond bubble is in full swing. Even people that know nothing about economics think the US bond market is a good place to be.

What I meant was, the Thai market functions the same way as any market.

----------


## socal

[quote=Butterfly;1550926]


> Now that is totally fucked.





> again, you need to understand the mechanics behind a net exporter and net importer. A net exporter will usually be a creditor, mostly because investing overseas with those reserves are a better deal, see China.





> You know nothing about basic economics.
> A net importer is usually a consumer, it has a market and therefore it is an attraction for all exporters, see USA. It's a debtor because it offers opportunties not found anywhere else (you only lend to the rich) and therefore capital flows in, lenders want to lend to Americans, it has growth and a market, not to the Chinese who can only exports and have limited investment choice internally, above all with strict government control. This may change eventually for China but not currently. 
> 
> Would you lend money to the Chinese ? I wouldn't


Lend to the rich eh ? THE LENDER IS THJE RICH ONE, IT HAS CAPITAL. YOU KNOW NOTHING. haha, lend to the rich, now thats an oxymoron. Maybe you understand pictures better..

----------


## socal

Maybe Thailand is gearing up to purchase some gold to divest themselves of US dollars. Bangladesh just did today, IMF Resumes Direct Gold Dumping, Sells 10 Tons Of The Shiny Metal To Bangladesh | zero hedgeRussia did in may and july.

----------


## Mid

*Commerce Min to  hold meeting to handle THB appreciation* 
Dolsinee  Kritayapimonporn

*BANGKOK*, 11 September  2010 (NNT)  The Commerce Ministry is prepared to hold a meeting with  commerce representatives worldwide to discuss effects from the  continuous appreciation of the Thai baht currency. 

Commerce Minister Pornthiva Nakasai said the ministry would invite  commerce envoys in 76 countries worldwide to the meeting in an effort to  formulate measures to prevent impacts from the baht appreciation on the  export and business sectors, which were likely to be seen from late  this year until the beginning of next year. 

The meeting will be part of a seminar, which will be organized by the  Department of Export Promotion (DEP) at the end of this month to discuss  concerns of exporters and importers over negative effects from the  strong baht. 

Speakers at the seminar will include Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva  and Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij, who will present the  Governments measures to handle the strengthening of the Thai currency.  Export figures will be reviewed while potential solutions to  currency-related problems will be mulled over.  

The Thai baht yesterday was shifting within the range of 30.83-30.85 THB  against the greenback and is speculated to continue appreciating next  week.  

thainews.prd.go.th

----------


## Butterfly

> Lend to the rich eh ? THE LENDER IS THJE RICH ONE, IT HAS CAPITAL. YOU KNOW NOTHING. haha, lend to the rich, now thats an oxymoron. Maybe you understand pictures better..


you are quite amusing, confusing a Bank market cap with asset under management, and the level of wealth in a country  :Smile: 

you do realize that your chart, like many others, means absolutely fuck all, unless you are a delusional gold fevered american  :Razz:

----------


## Thormaturge

We will know the world is in trouble when oil is priced in Thai Baht.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> Lend to the rich eh ? THE LENDER IS THJE RICH ONE, IT HAS CAPITAL. YOU KNOW NOTHING. haha, lend to the rich, now thats an oxymoron. Maybe you understand pictures better..
> 
> 
> you are quite amusing, confusing a Bank market cap with asset under management, and the level of wealth in a country 
> 
> you do realize that your chart, like many others, means absolutely fuck all, unless you are a delusional gold fevered american


You have everything perfecty backwards. I gave you a chance to take the high road but you where too dumb to take it. 

The creame always rises to the top dumb ass. A country with the most sustained and growing productive capacity will also eventually have the largest forex reserves, the highest market cap banks and the lowest debt.

----------


## Butterfly

> A country with the most sustained and growing productive capacity will also eventually have the largest forex reserves, the highest market cap banks and the lowest debt.


says who ? socal ?  :rofl:

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> The creame always rises to the top dumb ass. A country with the most sustained and growing productive capacity will also eventually have the largest forex reserves, the highest market cap banks and the lowest debt.


Yes, they have an enormous pile of US dollar reserves, which, if they sell them to buy something else, will cut their own throats by virtue of driving down the Dollar exchange rate.

All of a sudden those huge forex reserves look tainted. As if those countries were doing a deal with the devil.

They're all in this together. Thats globalisation.

.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> A country with the most sustained and growing productive capacity will also eventually have the largest forex reserves, the highest market cap banks and the lowest debt.
> 
> 
> says who ? socal ?


reality says it, thats who.

The same reality that says when you throw a rock up in the air, it falls back down. The same reality that says 2 plus 2 equals 4.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> The creame always rises to the top dumb ass. A country with the most sustained and growing productive capacity will also eventually have the largest forex reserves, the highest market cap banks and the lowest debt.
> 
> 
> Yes, they have an enormous pile of US dollar reserves, which, if they sell them to buy something else, will cut their own throats by virtue of driving down the Dollar exchange rate.
> 
> All of a sudden those huge forex reserves look tainted. As if those countries were doing a deal with the devil.
> ...


So you walked into the trap. hahaha. You finally realize that US dollars(Paper money, Fiat money) have no intrinsic value and could fall 50% in value in one day.

Yes, you know why those dollars could be tainted ????? Because they have NO INTRINSIC VALUE. China should have done what the US did when it was the top exporter in the world. DEMAND PAYMENT IN GOLD.

Are things finally falling into place for you yet ?

The US still has 8000 tons of gold so eventually China will demand entitlement to that gold along with the rest of the nations that the US owes money to. 

How much physical gold could China realistically get today if it tried to cash in $2T in debt paper for gold? At today's price of $1200 it could get more than 50,000 tonnes, but only if at todays price of gold is realistic. That is just China, that doesn't include Japan or Thailand or Saudi Arabia, Russia ect. These  huge imbalances are literally impossible under a gold based trade settlement system.

Considering all the gold ever mined amounts to 165,000 tons, and the EU and US gold holdings together amount to 18,000 tons, China will NEVER be able to get 50,000 tons of gold. But this problem has a very simple solution. The price of gold in dollars simply has to udjust up to cover the difference, waaay up. Then that 2 trillion in wealth will not be tainted, diluted or defaulted on because it is real money. Not phony paper scrap with no intrinsic value.

came full circle again, I wonder if anyone understands yet :mid:

----------


## Nostradamus

> Went to Baccarat in Soi Cowboy not so long ago and paid 150bt for a small bottle of Heineken. I was probably one of three falang, the rest were all Indians, Chinks and Japs.  Purchasing power vividly demonstrated.  The girls were somewhat listless and sporting bikinis so we left.  Frankly, Bangkok just isn't what it used to be.


Layman's terms. 

You're right about Bangkok BTW.

----------


## Loy Toy

I went to Patpong the other night with Pickel (the first time for the both of us in a decade) and we both were surprised about how much more cheaper the drinks were when compared to Cowboy, Nana and Soi 33. Beers for under 90 Baht and the lady drinks were cheaper mostly 100 baht or under.

Seems like at least one of Bangkok's farang entertainment areas has realised that their customers don't have the same purchasing power as before.

----------


## Butterfly

^ Patpong is a dump, no girls anymore, or only ugly ones, that's why drinks are cheap. Place is empty.

quite a few nice katoys though,

----------


## Butterfly

> How much physical gold could China realistically get today if it tried to cash in $2T in debt paper for gold? At today's price of $1200 it could get more than 50,000 tonnes, but only if at todays price of gold is realistic. That is just China, that doesn't include Japan or Thailand or Saudi Arabia, Russia ect. These huge imbalances are literally impossible under a gold based trade settlement system.


again, you are having the impression that Gold has any utility, it doesn't. What about being paid in Oil ? surely it would make sense for China to be paid in a commodity it can use, not a commodity that has only a "perceived value" like Gold  :mid:

----------


## wefearourdespot

> But this problem has a very simple solution. The price of gold in dollars simply has to udjust up to cover the difference, waaay up.


This presumes the Chinese are so morons to buy gold at an even more inflated price than it currently is.
There are a lot african countries thirsty for $ , if I were the Chinese I would shop there for land and natural resources rather than stocking useless yellow metal.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> How much physical gold could China realistically get today if it tried to cash in $2T in debt paper for gold? At today's price of $1200 it could get more than 50,000 tonnes, but only if at todays price of gold is realistic. That is just China, that doesn't include Japan or Thailand or Saudi Arabia, Russia ect. These huge imbalances are literally impossible under a gold based trade settlement system.
> 
> 
> again, you are having the impression that Gold has any utility, it doesn't. What about being paid in Oil ? surely it would make sense for China to be paid in a commodity it can use, not a commodity that has only a "perceived value" like Gold


Oil is not the most marketable good, it is bulky, liquid, heavy ect. Somebody with exsessive amounts of oil, that wants wheat would be screwed if the person with the wheat didn't need oil. But history has shown that the person that shows up with the gold, can buy wheat or oil. If the guy with the gold buys oil, then the guy with the oil can get some wheat because now he has some gold.

The utility of gold is its function as money.

----------


## Rural Surin

> There are a lot african countries thirsty for $ , if I were the Chinese I would shop there for land and natural resources rather than stocking useless yellow metal.


I believe they {Chinese} are. If you do some checking around, you'll find that the Chinese are quietly and systematically delving their hands into everything....worldwide.

----------


## socal

[quote=wefearourdespot;1552907]


> But this problem has a very simple solution. The price of gold in dollars simply has to udjust up to cover the difference, waaay up.





> This presumes the Chinese are so morons to buy gold at an even more inflated price than it currently is


Inflated against what ? Where is your refrence ? Like usual, you have it backwards. Gold is not "inflating", the purchasing power of fiat money is going down.




> There are a lot african countries thirsty for $


they are thirsty for purchasing power, you are admitting that the dollar has limited value and fundamental flaws, by suggesting to the Chinese, idea's on how to blow these dollars out the door.




> if I were the Chinese I would shop there for land and natural resources rather than stocking useless yellow metal.


If gold is so "useless", then why wouldn't the Chinese just keep the dollars ? 

why are you telling the Chinese to blow there dollars out the door again ?

----------


## Loy Toy

> you'll find that the Chinese are quietly and systematically delving their hands into everything....worldwide.


They are buying everything that is remotely valuable particularly Iron Ore and other metals and sometimes at an inflated price.

I went to a village in China that had stainless steel road barriers everywhere and a team of people had to keep these barriers highly polished at all times.

I think they believe if they corner the market they can then sell these resources at a price set by themselves.

You will see land being sold to farangs in Thailand one day soon at a price 1,000 fold and when compared to what they paid the peasant Thai farmers.

----------


## Nostradamus

> You will see land being sold to farangs in Thailand one day soon at a price 1,000 fold and when compared to what they paid the peasant Thai farmers.


The idea that Thailand will somehow become a plausible retirement or expat destination for Westerners (notwithstanding the dysfunctional ones it already attracts mostly due to cheap sex) is increasingly unlikely now given the direction the Baht is going and the laws; both for Westerners to remain here long term and as regards ownership. Add into the equation a definite shift in the country's politics in the near future (most probably for the worst unfortunately) and the inevitable event that all Thais fear, then the outlook looks predictably bleak indeed.

I fully expect a property market readjustment here too as it is long overdue and as the currency strengthens I believe that will only be a matter of when and not if.

The tired old mantra of the Thai property market never taking a hit is wishful bunkum from those who have a lot, or as in many cases, everything to lose.

----------


## Butterfly

> I fully expect a property market readjustment here too as it is long overdue and as the currency strengthens I believe that will only be a matter of when and not if.
> 
> The tired old mantra of the Thai property market never taking a hit is wishful bunkum from those who have a lot, or as in many cases, everything to lose.


you might be correct, but property and land here is a traditional asset class and well supported in terms of local demand. The expat markets is marginal and will become irrelevant eventually. The overpriced condo are targeted to the Thai who have nowhere else to put their money except in already overpriced Gold.

Property companies are expected to report record earnings again this year, and they keep building and building everywhere. They just announced a few dozens projects already, and everything will be sold. Sure it will be empty condos, but the Thai who buy them and park their money into them think it is a savings account.

There are 4 condos being built near my home in the last 6 months, and the Thai have no plan to stop.

----------


## tango

^^^^^ 'if I were the Chinese I would shop there for land and natural resources rather than stocking useless yellow metal.' Not only are they buying up Africa and using Chinese prisoners as labor along with Africans themselves, they have bought into Canadian oil sands plus,plus. There are five elements of power: the essential one is the  Economic Element of Power which China, India and more recently Russia realize is critical. The USA is still stuck on the least important, The Military Element, at its continuing peril and to Chinese,Indian,and Russian delight: torrent the following for a perspective on shifting global power:
Unreported.World.2007.Chinas.African.Takeover.WS.P  DTV.XviD.avi

----------


## backinpd2007

Wow, this thread now 14 pages! . It was over my head after the first page.My philosphy is that you either have lots of money (never!) or you don't, but  make sure you enjoy life regardless.

----------


## StrontiumDog

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255309130015

Economists expect Thai currency below 30THB/USD this year                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

BANGKOK, 13 September  2010 (NNT) – Economic analysts from 27 leading institutes expect the  Thai currency to appreciate beyond the 30 THB per USD mark this year as a  result of the continual foreign capital inflow.  

The poll recently conducted on economic experts during 6-10 September  reveals that 67.1% of the samples reckon the Thai baht in the last  quarter will stand below 30 THB against USD. They believe that the  factors contributing to the appreciation are the large amount of foreign  capital pouring into the stock exchange and the bond market, high  export growth and trade surplus, and the rising interest rate.  

58.9% of the polled economists expect to see the stock composite index  to surpass the 1,000 points mark within this year. 43.8% think the  figure is a reasonable estimation based on the current fundamental  factors and economic situation while 41.1% reckon the index is higher  than it should be. 

When asked about the aptness of the minimum wage hike recently proposed  by the premier, 64.4% support the idea, citing the higher cost of  living.  

As for the most urgent matter that the new Bank of Thailand Governor  should deal with, 58.6% of the respondents vote for the Thai baht’s  stability, followed by the central bank’s supervision over commercial  banks, and exposure of the grass-roots and small and medium  entrepreneurs to financial opportunities.

----------


## StrontiumDog

*Baht likely to continue strengthening due to capital influx, says top banker
*

*Baht likely to continue strengthening due to capital influx, says top banker*


  วันอังคาร ที่ 14 ก.ย. 2553 

 
   BANGKOK, Sept 14  – The baht is expected to strengthen further  and  stay at 30.50 to the US dollar by the end of this year due to the   continued capital inflow into Thailand and the current account surplus,   according to a top banker.

 Boontuck Wungcharoen, chief executive officer of TMB Bank Plc, said the   baht had appreciated in close relation to other currencies in the  region  except the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee.

 The recent baht surge had begun to impact Thailand’s export sector.  What  the private sector should do now is to adjust to the sharp  appreciation  of the currency. More bank clients must familiarise  themselves with  currency risk management.

 Mr Boontuck said the Bank of Thailand still must raise the policy   interest rate to contain the mounting inflationary pressure next year.   He predicted the policy rate would stay at 2-2.25 per cent at the end of   this year and increase further to 3.50 per cent by the end of next   year. (MCOT online news)

----------


## Butterfly

they are stopping inflation, it must be quite massive, a 3.5% rate is very high in these days and age

this will bring a nice slow down to the economy, and this is going to fuck quite a few expats in the process

I guess one way to get rid of them naturally,

----------


## Katana

> they are stopping inflation, it must be quite massive, a 3.5% rate is very high in these days and age
> 
> this will bring a nice slow down to the economy, and this is going to fuck quite a few expats in the process
> 
> I guess one way to get rid of them naturally,


Thailand fucking expats who would have thought it possible ??

At least the aussie dollar is also appreciating but this high season will see very few free spending tourists from the US Europe or the middle east It is certain that the ToT will hve figures show everything is fine though ....


Mark

 :deadhorsebig:  ::chitown::  :deadhorsebig:

----------


## socal

> *Baht likely to continue strengthening due to capital influx, says top banker*
> 
> 
> *Baht likely to continue strengthening due to capital influx, says top banker*
> 
> 
> วันอังคาร ที่ 14 ก.ย. 2553 
> 
> BANGKOK, Sept 14  The baht is expected to strengthen further and stay at 30.50 to the US dollar by the end of this year due to the continued capital inflow into Thailand and the current account surplus, according to a top banker.
> ...


Its the US dollar that is falling.

Gold is up $27 today

----------


## mikediver

Gold has no intrinsic value.  I don't know where you go to buy wheat where they accept gold bars as payment.  If you want to go back to a barter economy please do not ask the rest of us to go with you.  When I buy a new toothbrush what change can you give me for a cow; two goats and a sheep?  

Gold is just another commodity, like oil, coal, silver, copper, and many others.  Gold is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it, or give you in exchange; just like the fiat paper money decried so strongly by some in this thread.

----------


## mikediver

Gold goes up because a lot of people believe it is a safe refuge from currency fluctuations.  A lot of people thought fine art was a safe refuge.  But when the markets crashed, the price of fine art went down too; as those who had lost money had to sell, and there were no buyers.  

Try eating gold. Or try building your house of gold.  Or try making your clothes of gold.  Good luck with that.  Food, clothing, and shelter have intrinsic value.  Human effort in terms of time put into an object has intrinsic value as each of us has only so much.  Everything else is just a mutually agreed to fantasy.  Fantasies are not the problem; it is when someone decides not to play along with the fantasy that trouble starts.  Runs on banks are an example.  Banks don't have money; they just handle money.  Everyone "knows" this, but in our emotional selves we want our cold hard cash to be sitting in a vault.

----------


## StrontiumDog

*http://www.mcot.net/cfcustom/cache_page/102733.html
*

*Government likely to impose measure to control capital inflow soon*


  วันพุธ ที่ 15 ก.ย. 2553 

 
   BANGKOK, Sept 15 – The Thai government will soon likely present  a  measure to control foreign capital inflows in an effort to slow the   strengthening of the baht, according to a leading economist.

 Speaking at a seminar on “Economy in 2010: Prosperity or Slump,” Phatra   Securities Managing Director Supavud Saicheua said the current sharp   baht rise had begun to impact the real economic sector.

 Consequently, he believed the government must respond with a definite   measure to control the foreign capital influx to prevent the baht from   appreciating too rapidly.

 However, he said, the measure adopted by the government is aimed to  help  the real economic sector adjust itself in a timely manner amid the   strengthening of the baht.

 Mr Supavud said the current baht rise was attributed partly by the   capital inflow from Europe to seek investment returns as governments of   European countries turned to adopt the monetary policy to stimulate the   economy.

 Kim Eng Securities Chief Executive Officer Montri Sornpaisarn said   currencies of many Asian countries, including Thailand, had strengthened   due to their strong fiscal positions, sound capital reserves, and   stable financial institutions.

 He predicted the Thai economy this year would grow by 7-8 per cent   instead of the 4 per cent expected earlier with public debt staying at   50 per cent or below and unemployment lower than 1 per cent.

 Mr Montri conceded the interest hike could be adopted to ease the   economic heating, but he expected the interest rate would not rise   significantly from now on. (MCOT online news)

----------


## phomsanuk

The baht has appreciated little against the yuan, sg$. sfranc and other well managed currencies. It is not that the baht is improving, your home currency is going to hell in a handbasket. ::chitown::

----------


## phomsanuk

BTW, the swiss franc is now more valuable than the US$ for the 1st time in history.. :yerman:

----------


## socal

> Gold has no intrinsic value. I don't know where you go to buy wheat where they accept gold bars as payment. If you want to go back to a barter economy please do not ask the rest of us to go with you. When I buy a new toothbrush what change can you give me for a cow; two goats and a sheep? 
> 
> Gold is just another commodity, like oil, coal, silver, copper, and many others. Gold is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it, or give you in exchange; just like the fiat paper money decried so strongly by some in this thread.


You know nothing about macroeconomics or banking.

----------


## socal

> Gold goes up because a lot of people believe it is a safe refuge from currency fluctuations. A lot of people thought fine art was a safe refuge. But when the markets crashed, the price of fine art went down too; as those who had lost money had to sell, and there were no buyers. 
> 
> Try eating gold. Or try building your house of gold. Or try making your clothes of gold. Good luck with that. Food, clothing, and shelter have intrinsic value. Human effort in terms of time put into an object has intrinsic value as each of us has only so much. Everything else is just a mutually agreed to fantasy. Fantasies are not the problem; it is when someone decides not to play along with the fantasy that trouble starts. Runs on banks are an example. Banks don't have money; they just handle money. Everyone "knows" this, but in our emotional selves we want our cold hard cash to be sitting in a vault.


You would not make a good central banker.

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> Originally Posted by The_Ghost_Of_The_Moog
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by socal
> ...


No trap. I don't have any problem saying your received wisdom has picked up a few useful pieces. 

Reserve diversification is not as easy as you make out though. There's many ways of expressing a strategy.

Just trying to fill in some of the snafus that slip in for you. Still, as you point out, I don't need to as you are a genius.

----------


## StrontiumDog

http://www.tannetwork.tv/tan/ViewData.aspx?DataID=1034845

Strong Baht Seen Posing Risk to Econ Growth 

UPDATE : 15 September 2010                           *

The National Economic and Social  Development Board expresses concern  that the strengthening baht and the  unstable political situation can  hurt economic growth in the latter half  of the year. 

However, the think tank is still confident on a seven-percent GDP growth   this year with revenue from export and agricultural produce.

Board director of the National Economic and Social Development Board, or   NESDB, Narongchai Akaraseranee, said during a seminar on this year's   economic situation that signs of recovery have become much clearer as   seen from rising export revenue and higher agricultural produce prices.* 

Therefore, he is confident the country will be able to attain a   seven-percent GDP growth this year while next year's growth is expected   at four to five percent. 

However, Narongchai did caution that risk factors do exist, mainly with   the rapidly strengthening baht, which may affect small businesses. 

Still, he believes the effect will be minimal as all indices are still positive. 

Narongchai expressed his concern about the baht speculation, saying   businesspeople should consider exchange rate risks and the Bank of   Thailand should be on top of the situation. 

He did acknowledge the central bank's difficulty as the government has   not approved of economists' proposal to use the bank's foreign reserve   of more than 100 billion US dollars to invest in infrastructure as a   means to lessen the pressure on the baht. 

As a result, the bank has had to rely on only buying up the dollar with   the baht and issuing bonds to soak up excess liquidity on the market  and  be faced with having to shoulder exchange rate losses and interest  on  bonds which puts the bank's accounts at a deficit. 

Narongchai also pointed out the unstable political situation,   particularly for the month of November when the ruling Democrat Party's   dissolution case is due. 

He said the issue may have repercussions on the tourism high season that   would drag down GDP growth for the latter half of the year. 

Phatara Securities Managing Director Supavud Saichuea noted that the   strengthening baht may cause Thailand to see a trade deficit as the   country exports less due to higher prices. This will, in turn, cut into   economic growth for next year. 

Supavud said the central bank needs to come out with measures to control   capital inflow as the trend predicts a continuous influx of foreign   investment for the next two years. 

However, the bank will not be able to increase policy rates to   accommodate the higher economic growth, so it would have to look into   preventing rapid strengthening of the baht to cap pressure on inflation   and stabilize the economy.

----------


## StrontiumDog

*http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/loca...curbing-signal
*
*FTI welcomes baht curbs signal* Published: 15/09/2010 at 01:58 PMOnline news: BreakingnewsThe Federation of Thai Industries welcomes the  Bank of  Thailand’s (BoT) signal that it will take steps to ensure that  the  value of Thai currency  moves in line with the economic system, FTI   chairman Payungsak Chartsuthipol said on Wednesday.

 “It is a good sign that the central bank will introduce measures to   deal with the speculative foreign capital inflow,” said Mr Payungsak.

 The FTI chairman believed the BoT’s move would help ensure  the  baht’s  value would not fluctuate too much and stay at levels in line  with the  currencies of other countries in the Asian region.

 He said if the central bank could maintain the baht at  31 or 32  to  the US dollar,it would be acceptable to the private sector.

 He noted that the Thai currency had strengthened more than  other currencies in the region over the past two weeks.

----------


## Butterfly

> You know nothing about macroeconomics or banking.


it seems that anyone who doesn't agree with you "know nothing"  :rofl: 

do I detect a pattern here ?  :mid:

----------


## Butterfly

> Food, clothing, and shelter have intrinsic value.


indeed, it all comes down to utility and the value of utility or usefulness

gold per se isn't useful and doesn't have any utility for an individual, it does however on an industrial level

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by mikediver
> 
> Food, clothing, and shelter have intrinsic value.
> 
> 
> indeed, it all comes down to utility and the value of utility or usefulness
> 
> gold per se isn't useful and doesn't have any utility for an individual, it does however on an industrial level


Its funny that sombody would even entertain the idea that gold has no intrinsic value.

It is the only asset that has always had intrinsic value. For thousands of years.

Some land is free, they gave away land in North America to get immigreants to move. Some houses are still free. Lots of free cloths out there. farmers always produce too much ffod which drives the value down or makes it almost worthless.

Gold is what ended the barter system. To say food,clothiong and shelter have more intrinsic value, you are going back to the barter days. A world where gold has no intrinsic value is a world of barter.

----------


## Thetyim

> Gold is what ended the barter system.


The first coins were the "cash" made in China circa 1200 BC
They were made of copper.

----------


## Butterfly

^ damn, how did we survive for so long without gold  :Razz:

----------


## Rural Surin

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> Gold is what ended the barter system.
> 
> 
> The first coins were the "cash" made in China circa 1200 BC
> They were made of copper.


Unfortunately Thet, many fall under the spell of historic leanings are all about contemporary historiography only.....and they stop tending towards broader examinations that might dismiss their agenda.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> Gold is what ended the barter system.
> 
> 
> The first coins were the "cash" made in China circa 1200 BC
> They were made of copper.


wrong. Anyway.....

 what is copper worth now compared to gold ?

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by Thetyim
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by socal
> ...


again, what will a small copper coin buy you today and what will a small gold coin buy you today ?

I like posts like these, they prove my point.

----------


## Butterfly

> wrong. Anyway.....


care to substantiate ? oh wait, you can't  :Razz:

----------


## Butterfly

> I like posts like these, they prove my point.


actually they don't, or they do if your point was to be a clueless fool  :Smile:

----------


## koman

You own a  bar of gold valued at $100,000
You sell the gold to the bank
The bank  will pay you with currency.
Not likely the bank will count out $100K on the counter these days.
The bank instead transfers $100,000 to your bank account---virtual currency--no cash has changed hands. Just trading credits and debits.

Question: What is the nature of this transaction? Has the bank purchased a commodity or is it a form of currency exchange?
What would  the bank do with the gold? Just let it sit around in a vault, or sell/exchange it for something else such as foreign currency? Obviously the bank would have no use for the gold itself.

Under these circumstances is the gold still a commodity or is it acting as a kind of currency.
Bearing in mind that currency is usually defined as paper money, how does that square with the virtual currency which is rapidly replacing the paper?

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> wrong. Anyway.....
> 
> 
> care to substantiate ? oh wait, you can't


gold bars where trading long before the Chinese made copper coins.

Those copper coins where just a medium of exchange for the peasant class.

Evidently these copper coins did not serve the eccential purposes of real money which is a medium of exchange and a store of value.

If they had a store of value they would be worth something now. just like gold is worth something now. Not just worth something now but held the same purchasing power as now. Sure, scrap copper is worth something but it has never retained is purchasing power. Even most of the coins around today are made of copper but the metallic value has nothing to do with the face value. The face value of a dollar coin is only determined by the precieved value a dollar has. 

A 1 oz Canadian gold maple leaf coin has a legal tender value of $50 but a metallic value of $1300. If you want to transfer assets out of Canada, the government only goes by the metallic value of the coin, not the legal tender value. So if the legal maximum amount of currency you can transfer out of the country without declaring it is less then $10,000, you are not permited to take 200 1 oz($10,000 legal tender value, $10,000 divided by $50) gold maple leafs out of the country. 

The same government that tries to convince the public that gold is not a currency is the same government that will value your gold at its real metallic value. In other words, the maximum amount of 1 oz maple leaf coins you can take out of the country without declaring it is 7 coins, not 200. $10,000 divided by the metallic value of $1300 per coin is about 7 coins.

----------


## Thaihome

> You own a bar of gold valued at $100,000
> You sell the gold to the bank
> The bank will pay you with currency.
> Not likely the bank will count out $100K on the counter these days.
> The bank instead transfers $100,000 to your bank account---virtual currency--no cash has changed hands. Just trading credits and debits.
> 
> Question: What is the nature of this transaction? Has the bank purchased a commodity or is it a form of currency exchange?
> What would the bank do with the gold? Just let it sit around in a vault, or sell/exchange it for something else such as foreign currency? Obviously the bank would have no use for the gold itself.
> 
> ...


 
Its a good point, but to further prove the point, can you actually get a bank to exchange gold bullion for paper (or electronic) currency in the first place?

Try it.  Walk into a bank with 80 or so ounces of gold (a bit over 2 kilos) and see if you can get any money for it from them.
TH

----------


## koman

> Originally Posted by koman
> 
> 
> You own a bar of gold valued at $100,000
> You sell the gold to the bank
> The bank will pay you with currency.
> Not likely the bank will count out $100K on the counter these days.
> The bank instead transfers $100,000 to your bank account---virtual currency--no cash has changed hands. Just trading credits and debits.
> 
> ...


No not any bank, but I believe that some banks will do such an exchange. They would obviously have to have someone on hand with this kind of trading experience, but some specialized branches seem to do it.   The reason  I asked this question is that I worked with an Indian guy in Canada years ago who did this kind of thing on a fairly regular basis.

----------


## Butterfly

they are not banks, they are gold dealers.

----------


## koman

> they are not banks, they are gold dealers.


This guy definitely dealt with a bank.  I think it was the Royal Bank of Canada.
Even if it was a gold dealer not connected with the bank the same kind of transaction is taking place. Ie Gold for cash or electronic transfer of funds. Gold dealers would buy and sell gold so what are they trading...buying and selling commodities or doing a currency exchange?

----------


## Butterfly

> doing a currency exchange?


a currency exchange or exchange rate ? these are 2 different topics,

certain commodities like oil have become proxies for an exchange rate between currencies, that doesn't make them currencies though. Their high liquidity could be confused as a currency, but US Treasury are also highly liquid, but are they a currency per se ? no, but they can also be used as an exchange rate between currencies and actually all kind of assets, including commodities.

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> Originally Posted by Butterfly
> 
> 
> they are not banks, they are gold dealers.
> 
> 
> This guy definitely dealt with a bank.  I think it was the Royal Bank of Canada.
> Even if it was a gold dealer not connected with the bank the same kind of transaction is taking place. Ie Gold for cash or electronic transfer of funds. Gold dealers would buy and sell gold so what are they trading...buying and selling commodities or doing a currency exchange?


I used to sell gold sovereigns when I worked in a bank branch of NatWest in Newton Abbot. It was a long time ago and I don't remember if we quoted a two way price if people wanted to sell the coins back.

I don't think any bank would be impressed if you walked into a branch with a handful of gold teeth fillings and tried to sell them.

----------


## Butterfly

don't even think you can sell them back the gold coins, that's the job of a dealer, not the bank. The retail bank is mostly a distributor, not a dealer.

----------


## maily

have no idea about trading, exchanging gold for cash, or whatever, but if I was trading something that had a value I would rather have a tonne of gold than a tonne of bananas. 
What has this got to do with anything, no idea, was just thinking about you smarter guys talking about food, oil, steel etc.

----------


## koman

> Originally Posted by koman
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by Butterfly
> ...


I doubt if anybody would be dumb enough to take the teeth fillings to the bank.. :Smile: 
but then ya never know. They would melt the fillings into something like a gold wafer.   We seem to be getting hung up about retail bank branches, but that was not what I was referring  to.  Some large banks have commercial offices were all kinds of things take place that are outside the realm of your friendly main street retail bank.  (Maybe I'll check this out. Tomorrow I will strap a couple of ingots on the back of the motor bike and head over to the Siam commercial branch.. :Smile: ).  This is all pretty confusing for anyone outside of the business. I have always thought of gold as a very unique beast, which could be traded as a commodity, or used as currency in other circumstances.  It is very portable, unlike oil, wheat, timber, iron ore etc etc.  Surely throughout history people have purchased all kinds of things by using gold in some form.   In the novels written in the the early to mid eighteen hundreds, there are many references to things being purchased with gold, so it sure sounds like a currency then. The use of paper currency obviously replaced it fairly quickly.  Paper is a lot lighter to carry around but not nearly as durable as good old useless gold, which can lie under hundreds of feet of salt water for 200 years and still polish up like new, and it's been around for thousands of years and has been highly prized by virtually all people over the centuries. It seems to me that this enduring quality is one  of the many reasons why it remains very much in vogue today.

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> don't even think you can sell them back the gold coins, that's the job of a dealer, not the bank. The retail bank is mostly a distributor, not a dealer.


Well, we would be such an intermediary. There was a gold dealer at the other end. Someone would place an order and I would prepare the debit, a price would be set, and in a week the coin would arrive. 

Then the old codger would come in and pick up his luvverly gold coin, and leave the branch cackling, and holding it up to the light yelling. 

_"Mine, its all mine. My precious."_

Something like that anyway.

----------


## Spin

So is gold a currency or not? 

 :Wall:

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> So is gold a currency or not?


We've agreed that its not 'legal tender' anymore, but it is a currency - sort of.

----------


## Butterfly

> It is very portable, unlike oil, wheat, timber, iron ore etc etc. Surely throughout history people have purchased all kinds of things by using gold in some form. In the novels written in the the early to mid eighteen hundreds, there are many references to things being purchased with gold, so it sure sounds like a currency then. The use of paper currency obviously replaced it fairly quickly. Paper is a lot lighter to carry around but not nearly as durable as good old useless gold, which can lie under hundreds of feet of salt water for 200 years and still polish up like new, and it's been around for thousands of years and has been highly prized by virtually all people over the centuries. It seems to me that this enduring quality is one of the many reasons why it remains very much in vogue today.


we don't call it Gold fever for nothing, because that's what it is, perception and hype

could have been another shinny metal but by chance Gold had a nice shine, hardly an intrinsic value in economic terms.




> We've agreed that its not 'legal tender' anymore, but it is a currency - sort of.


if it's a coin, then yes it's a currency, in bar, it's a commodity  :Razz:

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

Am hearing that the BOT is going to announce some measures to make overseas investment by Thais easier. 

For example, in buying properties overseas.

----------


## Nostradamus

> I used to sell gold sovereigns when I worked in a bank branch of NatWest in Newton Abbot.


I pictured you somewhat differently moog.

----------


## Thaihome

> Am hearing that the BOT is going to announce some measures to make overseas investment by Thais easier. 
> 
> For example, in buying properties overseas.


 
Have not heard they were going to do anymore then they already had back in Feb-10 when they raised investment cap from $30 billion to $50 billion and eased hedging rules.

Was not aware it was illegal for Thais to own property overseas.  

TH

----------


## Butterfly

I think it is, and they can't invest overseas either if they are still Thai resident

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

Here's the Barclays Capital note I received.

Make what you will of it. Sorry about the font, but I don't seem to be able to change it to white. You can copy and paste it into a word doc.

*Thailand: THB  likely to continue to appreciate in coming months*


*Thailand**:  August exports rebound; measures to encourage outflows are unlikely  to have material impact*
Exports grew 23.9% y/y in August, marginally  above the consensus projection (23.5%), but below our  expectation of a 25% rise. Imports surprised to the upside, rising  41.1% y/y against the consensus forecast of a 39.1% increase. The trade  balance recovered to USD643mn in August, from a deficit of USD940mn in  July. On a seasonally adjusted m/m basis, exports  were up 3.3%, after the record 13.3% decline seen in July. Imports  declined about 0.3% m/m, after declining 1.4% on a seasonally adjusted  m/m basis in July.
Export momentum continues to slow in Thailand.  On a 6m/6m saar basis, exports grew at 19.4%, down  from the peak of 52% in March. This is consistent with the moderation  we have seen across the region (eg, Korea and Taiwan) in August, which  suggests that export momentum is likely to slow in the coming months. We  remain confident that as export growth slows,  we are likely to see  import growth begin to moderate, which will keep  the BoP in a comfortable surplus. 
*BoT to announce fresh  measures to to ease rules on outbound investment*
The Bank of Thailand has received approval  from Thailand's Ministry of Finance to impose a set of  new rules that would allow more investment abroad. We expect the BoT to  allow Thais to be able to purchase property abroad more easily and to  allow Thai companies to hold more cash in foreign-currency-denominated  savings accounts within Thailand. These measures  will be a continuation of the ongoing relaxation of FX rules started by  the BoT in February. 
The measures are likely to  be implemented from end of the week according to  assistant BoT governor Suchada, and are likely to encourage more  two-way flow in the currency. 
The impact of these  measures may not appear right away. As noted by finance  minister Korn in a speech to parliament on Friday, while current  measures were adequate, even the additional measures are unlikely to  change the trend of appreciation in THB and may only help promote fund  outflows. The trade minister today suggested that the  currency could trade around 30/USD without loss of competitiveness, if  managed properly by policymakers. In the near term, the measures are  possibly an attempt to satisfy the exporter lobby, which has raised  concerns over the pace of THB appreciation.
These statements indicate to us that with the  external situation remaining robust and that policymakers  are comfortable with more currency appreciation. We believe the BoT is  likely to continue to curb excess volatility in the spot and forward FX  markets, but will let the the THB appreciate in line with other regional  currencies. For now, we see risks of reaching  our 12m forecast of THB 30.50/USD much earlier.

----------


## Butterfly

I think the idea was floated already last month, so this might just be the confirmation

----------


## English Noodles

> Thailand: THB likely to continue to appreciate in coming months   Thailand:
> 
> August exports rebound; measures to encourage outflows are unlikely to have material impact Exports grew 23.9% y/y in August, marginally above the consensus projection (23.5%), but below our expectation of a 25% rise. Imports surprised to the upside, rising 41.1% y/y against the consensus forecast of a 39.1% increase. The trade balance recovered to USD643mn in August, from a deficit of USD940mn in July.
> 
> On a seasonally adjusted m/m basis, exports were up 3.3%, after the record 13.3% decline seen in July. Imports declined about 0.3% m/m, after declining 1.4% on a seasonally adjusted m/m basis in July. Export momentum continues to slow in Thailand. On a 6m/6m saar basis, exports grew at 19.4%, down from the peak of 52% in March. This is consistent with the moderation we have seen across the region (eg, Korea and Taiwan) in August, which suggests that export momentum is likely to slow in the coming months. We remain confident that as export growth slows, we are likely to see import growth begin to moderate, which will keep the BoP in a comfortable surplus.
> 
> BoT to announce fresh measures to to ease rules on outbound investment The Bank of Thailand has received approval from Thailand's Ministry of Finance to impose a set of new rules that would allow more investment abroad. We expect the BoT to allow Thais to be able to purchase property abroad more easily and to allow Thai companies to hold more cash in foreign-currency-denominated savings accounts within Thailand. These measures will be a continuation of the ongoing relaxation of FX rules started by the BoT in February. The measures are likely to be implemented from end of the week according to assistant BoT governor Suchada, and are likely to encourage more two-way flow in the currency. 
> 
> The impact of these measures may not appear right away. As noted by finance minister Korn in a speech to parliament on Friday, while current measures were adequate, even the additional measures are unlikely to change the trend of appreciation in THB and may only help promote fund outflows. The trade minister today suggested that the currency could trade around 30/USD without loss of competitiveness, if managed properly by policymakers. In the near term, the measures are possibly an attempt to satisfy the exporter lobby, which has raised concerns over the pace of THB appreciation. 
> ...


Here you go, Moog.

----------


## StrontiumDog

*http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/...apital-outflow
*
*BoT to ease capital outflow*
Published: 20/09/2010 at 03:51 PMOnline news: Economics
 The Bank of Thailand will ease capital outflow  controls to reduce the  pressure on the strengthening baht, BoT assistant  governor Suchada  Kirakul said on Monday.
 Mrs Suchada said the central bank will announce the details this week.

 "The  BoT will not directly intervene in the currency market, but it  will be  easier for Thai businesses to move  investment capital abroad,"  she  said.

The assistant governor said the baht had strengthened too  quickly,  making it difficult for exporters to set their product prices  and  manage the risk factors.


 However,  the baht's appreciation rate had recently slowed down.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva expressed confidence that the economic outlook was bright. 

Mr  Abhisit said the four supporting factors for the Thai economy were  the  Thai people's commitment and determination, the rapid economic  recovery,  the government's efforts to reduce social gaps and its plan  to drive  the country's creative economy forward. 

Thai people were  committed and had overcome many challenges in the  past, while the   economy grew 12 per cent in the first quarter of this  year, indicating  that the capital market, export, investment and  tourism sectors were  recovering fast.

"The government has been reducing social gaps such as poverty and improving the education system and public utilities.

"The  government also gives priority to the creative economy to improve  the  quality of Thai products being sold to foreign markets," the  premier  said.

Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai said exports in August  rose 23.9 per  cent year-on-year and the export value stood at US$16.54  billion.

Imports in the previous month increased 41.1 per cent  year-on-year and  its value was $15.8 billion. Thailand had a trade  surplus of $643  million.

The export value in the first eight  months of this year was $125.08  billion, 32.63 per cent higher  year-on-year, while the import value  stood at $119 billion, up 47.9 per  cent year-on-year. The country  recorded a trade surplus of $6.08 billion  between Jan-Aug 2010.

Mrs Porntiva said her ministry's export growth projection for this year remained at 20 per cent, or $183 billion.

----------


## socal

> don't even think you can sell them back the gold coins, that's the job of a dealer, not the bank. The retail bank is mostly a distributor, not a dealer.


Yes, you can sell them back.

Banks offering clearing services for the London Bullion market Association. This does not include the list of banks that buy and sell gold certificates that are supposed to represent physical gold. That list would include most banks in North America.

 UBS AG
 Société Générale
 N        M Rothschild & Sons LTD
 JP        Morgan Chase Bank
 J        Aron & Company (U.K.)
 HSBC Bank USA London Branch
Deutsche Bank AG
 AIG International Ltd
 The Bank of Nova Scotia-ScotiaMocatta
 Barclays Bank PLC

How many commodities that you know of, do banks sell a piece of paper that represents (allegedly) the physical commodity ?

I can go to every bank in Canada and buy a certificate that represents physical gold. Not wheat, not oil, not lumber, just gold.

----------


## Butterfly

^ again do they accept physical Gold ? or only certificate ? I don't think they will take Gold physically, that's the problem.

A certificate is as much as fiat as any other paper.

----------


## socal

> So is gold a currency or not?


Yes it is a currency.

Governments put on an illusion that it is not a currency for their own interests. It is only the people that have studied macro economics and central banking that know for certain that gold is a currency. Some common sense will go a long way in understanding it too.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by Spin
> 
> 
> So is gold a currency or not? 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We've agreed that its not 'legal tender' anymore, but it is a currency - sort of.


Its metallic value is legal tender when it crosses borders. I explained that a few posts ago.

----------


## Butterfly

> It is only the people that have studied macro economics and central banking that know for certain that gold is a currency.


actually they don't, but again with no clue, you can claim anything  :Smile:

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by koman
> 
> It is very portable, unlike oil, wheat, timber, iron ore etc etc. Surely throughout history people have purchased all kinds of things by using gold in some form. In the novels written in the the early to mid eighteen hundreds, there are many references to things being purchased with gold, so it sure sounds like a currency then. The use of paper currency obviously replaced it fairly quickly. Paper is a lot lighter to carry around but not nearly as durable as good old useless gold, which can lie under hundreds of feet of salt water for 200 years and still polish up like new, and it's been around for thousands of years and has been highly prized by virtually all people over the centuries. It seems to me that this enduring quality is one of the many reasons why it remains very much in vogue today.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Commodities get consumed, currency doesn't. Whether its a bar or a coin, it is a currency.  If not, then the SPDR gold exchange traded fund would have no purpose. How many etfs hold physical oil ? Name one.
*Total Gold In Trust:*

*Tonnes:* 1,304.47.
*Ounces:* 41,940,090.49
*Value US$:* 
            53,639,123,768.99

----------


## Butterfly

> Commodities get consumed, currency doesn't.


but you can consume Gold, it's being transformed, put into computer circuits, or into jewelry, used for all kind electronic equipment because of certain properties. That's the only intrinsic value of Gold, and guess what, it has competition and that's why its price vary.

----------


## socal

> ^ again do they accept physical Gold ? or only certificate ? I don't think they will take Gold physically, that's the problem.
> 
> A certificate is as much as fiat as any other paper.


This list is the banks that will buy physical gold. The list of banks that participate in the interbank gold market is 5 times longer, the list of authorized participants in the certificate market is 10 times longer. 

It is ironic that you are suspicious of the paper gold ETF and futures market, yet you have no suspicions of the fiat currency market.

At least a gold certificate allegedly represents something, fiat currency represents nothing.

----------


## Butterfly

> Commodities get consumed, currency doesn't. Whether its a bar or a coin, it is a currency. If not, then the SPDR gold exchange traded fund would have no purpose. How many etfs hold physical oil ? Name one.


that's what you don't understand, you are still holding shares quoted in a currency of a commodity you can't posse or be delivered. The bank is the custodian, not you.

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stock...6&symbol=GLD.P



> The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to *reflect* the performance of the price of gold bullion.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> Commodities get consumed, currency doesn't.
> 
> 
> but you can consume Gold, it's being transformed, put into computer circuits, or into jewelry, used for all kind electronic equipment because of certain properties. That's the only intrinsic value of Gold, and guess what, it has competition and that's why its price vary.


It is still not being consumed. Oil gets burned, wheat gets eaten ect. 

When you see the gold price move up or down, it has hardly anything to do with electronics manufacturers.

----------


## Butterfly

> This list is the banks that will buy physical gold.


from individuals ? don't think so, other institutions, yes, and what forms do they expect ? you can't hold gold bars as an individual, you could before, but not anymore. All you can buy is Gold coins, which is as close as a currency you will get. 




> It is ironic that you are suspicious of the paper gold ETF and futures market,


I am not, I am just reminding you that it's a piece of paper, like everything else




> At least a gold certificate allegedly represents something, fiat currency represents nothing.


represent what ? it only represent what the "issuer" has in the custodian account. What happens if the issuer defaults or sell all the underlying assets to turn them into cash in a declining market ? that's right, you will be fucked. You don't hold Gold, only shares of an investment vehicle denominated in the fiat currency you so despised.

----------


## Butterfly

> It is still not being consumed. Oil gets burned, wheat gets eaten ect.


and copper ? and silver ? iron ? steel ?

can you make a deposit in steel or iron ?  :mid:

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> Commodities get consumed, currency doesn't. Whether its a bar or a coin, it is a currency. If not, then the SPDR gold exchange traded fund would have no purpose. How many etfs hold physical oil ? Name one.
> 
> 
> that's what you don't understand, you are still holding shares quoted in a currency of a commodity you can't posse or be delivered. The bank is the custodian, not you.
> 
> SPDR Gold Trust: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD.P) Company Profile | Reuters.com
> 
> ...


GLD claims that they hold 100% physical gold. I made a youtube video about this not long ago, most of these ETFs are a fraud intended to keep the fiat US dollar afloat. . There is many diffrent physical gold etfs. Show me one physical oil etf.
*iShares COMEX Gold Trust*

Julius Bär Physical Gold Fund
*Benchmark Gold BeES*

Hybrid funds
*ZKB Gold ETF*

Sprott Physical Gold Trust
*Precious Metals Bullion Trust*

ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SikYbAtXWyg

----------


## socal

[quote=Butterfly;1560294]


> This list is the banks that will buy physical gold.





> from individuals ? don't think so, other institutions, yes, and what forms do they expect ? you can't hold gold bars as an individual, you could before, but not anymore. All you can buy is Gold coins, which is as close as a currency you will get.


 I mainly own bars that I get from my local bank.







> It is ironic that you are suspicious of the paper gold ETF and futures market,


I am not, I am just reminding you that it's a piece of paper, like everything else




> At least a gold certificate allegedly represents something, fiat currency represents nothing.





> represent what ? it only represent what the "issuer" has in the custodian account. What happens if the issuer defaults or sell all the underlying assets to turn them into cash in a declining market ? that's right, you will be fucked. You don't hold Gold, only shares of an investment vehicle denominated in the fiat currency you so despised.


I cant stand gold ETFs, I know they are a joke but I also know that a fiat currency managed by  keynesians is a bigger joke.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> It is still not being consumed. Oil gets burned, wheat gets eaten ect.
> 
> 
> and copper ? and silver ? iron ? steel ?
> 
> can you make a deposit in steel or iron ?


Steel, copper and iron rust, corrode and oxidize. Silver doesn't but silver is also a precious metal for that reason.

----------


## Butterfly

steel rust only on the surface,

what about stainless metals ?  :Razz:

----------


## Butterfly

interesting,

Avoiding Bullion “Bar Charges” at ScotiaBank 

ok so in Canada you can buy gold bars from Scotiabank, do they actually deliver or do they expect you to keep them in their safe ?

I believe it's still illegal in most of Europe to hold physical Gold for an individual, so how is that for a "currency" ?

oh, and the transaction to buy and sell those small bars requires you to show all kind of documentation, so that's hardly make it a currency. It's an asset transaction.

http://www.scotiamocatta.com/product...ch_Network.pdf

----------


## koman

[quote=socal;1560286]


> ^
> 
> It is ironic that you are suspicious of the paper gold ETF and futures market, yet you have no suspicions of the fiat currency market.
> 
> At least a gold certificate allegedly represents something, *fiat currency represents nothing.*




Not too long ago they were using fiat currency as cooking fuel in rural Zimbabwe. Firewood was way more valuable.... :Smile:

----------


## Butterfly



----------


## socal

> interesting,
> 
> Avoiding Bullion Bar Charges at ScotiaBank 
> 
> ok so in Canada you can buy gold bars from Scotiabank, do they actually deliver or do they expect you to keep them in their safe ?
> 
> I believe it's still illegal in most of Europe to hold physical Gold for an individual, so how is that for a "currency" ?
> 
> oh, and the transaction to buy and sell those small bars requires you to show all kind of documentation, so that's hardly make it a currency. It's an asset transaction.
> ...


I have all my gold in a separate safe, not affiliated with Scotiabank. I highly doubt it is illegal to hold gold in Europe.

----------


## Butterfly

Moog says the restrictions is gone in England. I know France doesn't allow it, and it's illegal in France to carry more than 6,000 EURO in cash, or pay anything in cash above 600 EUROS or some other non-sense per EU directives. Not sure how each country apply those directives.

----------


## Butterfly

hum, all this below sounds familiar, copy/paste from socal ?  :Razz: 

Q Wealth Report - How and Why to Invest in Gold Offshore

----------


## phomsanuk

*The baht gold price is not increasing as much as the international price?*

----------


## Thaihome

Its really a shame that this thread ahs been hijacked to a discussion on old versus fiat currency.

Could have been an interesting discussion on the baht and political implications of the BOT doing unsterilized intervention to keep it down.

Oh well. 
TH

----------


## socal

> *The baht gold price is not increasing as much as the international price?*


Of course. 

When gold is getting cheaper in your home country, you are getting richer. When gold is getting cheaper in baht, then Thais standards of living are rising, when gold is getting more expensive in the US, Americans standard of living is falling.

----------


## socal

> Its really a shame that this thread ahs been hijacked to a discussion on old versus fiat currency.
> 
> Could have been an interesting discussion on the baht and political implications of the BOT doing unsterilized intervention to keep it down.
> 
> Oh well. 
> TH


Dumb ass, it has everything to do with the discussion. By intervening, the BOT would be forcing down the potential increase in the standard of living for Thais.

The price of gold is a direct correlation with the increase or decrease in the standard of living in a country. The cheaper it gets for Thais, or the slower the price rises compared to other nations, the richer Thais become.

If a cheap currency is so great, then why dont you want one ?

Are you writing a letter to your central bank to intervene and drive down your currency and your standard of living ?

----------


## Spin

> Originally Posted by Spin
> 
> 
> So is gold a currency or not? 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yes it is a currency.
> ...


Now you are just demonstrating how mad the average gold bug is. Deranged they are, all of them.

Including you.

----------


## siamsky

The Hi-So and their aunt will have their final shopping spree in London and LA

Other than that, there is not much in favour of this

----------


## Thaihome

> The Hi-So and their aunt will have their final shopping spree in London and LA
> 
> Other than that, there is not much in favour of this


 
Actually the strong baht does help somewhat as it makes imports cheaper and for Thailand, as oil is by far the biggest import, it can help a lot.  This is of course is offset by the higher cost of the exports causing them to potentially decrease. So far, exports have not been heavily impacted by the rising baht and have continued to rise, now reaching the same levels as the 2008 peaks as world demand for the manufactured items, particularly the computer and automotive products, that Thailand exports.

The BOT intervention so far has been sterilized and not increased the domestic money supply.  If they now move to a non-sterilized intervention causing the money supply to increase, that could further heat up the economy, which as long as inflation doesn't get too bad, would be a good thing for the government when elections roll around.
TH

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by Spin
> ...


Governments own a hell of allot more gold then anyone else so who is deranged ? me or the governments ?

1  United States 8,133.5 68.7%   2  Germany 3,407.6 64.6%   3 International Monetary Fund 3,005.3 -   4  Italy 2,451.8 63.4%   5  France 2,435.4 64.2%   6  China 1,054.0[11] 1.5%   7  Switzerland 1,040.1 28.8%   8  Japan 765.2 2.4%   9  Russia 668.6 5.5%   10  Netherlands 612.5 51.7%   11  India 557.7[5] 7.5%   12  European Central Bank 501.4 19.6%

----------


## socal

> The Hi-So and their aunt will have their final shopping spree in London and LA
> 
> Other than that, there is not much in favour of this


what about the taxi driver changing the oil in his car ? Or filling it up with gas ?

What about the people that buy imported foods ?

Are you in favour of a weak currency in your country too ?

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by siamsky
> 
> 
> The Hi-So and their aunt will have their final shopping spree in London and LA
> 
> Other than that, there is not much in favour of this
> 
> 
>  
> ...



Any intervention creates inflation(prices going up) The lack of intervention is why there is less inflation. Intervention would have made gold cost more for Thais,  not less like it is now.

----------


## Butterfly

> Now you are just demonstrating how mad the average gold bug is. Deranged they are, all of them.


the gold fever has been there for thousand years and it always end in tears,

socal in his naivety is very typical and I would dare say "normal", this is the same mentality that drove the dot boom, only to end in tears.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by Spin
> 
> Now you are just demonstrating how mad the average gold bug is. Deranged they are, all of them.
> 
> 
> the gold fever has been there for thousand years and it always end in tears,
> 
> socal in his naivety is very typical and I would dare say "normal", this is the same mentality that drove the dot boom, only to end in tears.


It is treasury bonds that will end in tears you clown.

Interest rates have never been so low in 50 years, bond prices have never been so high in 50 years.

 Its funny that Joe public like you always seems to get it wrong. Joe public sees the gold price going up and Joe public finally thinks he has this bubble thing figured out but once again, Joe public is wrong.

Where would you invest $100,000 today ?

----------


## Butterfly

> Interest rates have never been so low in 50 years, bond prices have never been so high in 50 years.


and yes there is a specific reason for that, but again it will be lost on you  :Smile: 

Joe Public doesn't buy bonds, financial institutions and large market participants do. Yes, Joe Public is often wrong, that's why he is buying Gold these days  :Smile: 




> Where would you invest $100,000 today ?


If I was Joe Public, in Gold of course, where else  :Smile:

----------


## The Bold Rodney

> Now you are just demonstrating how mad the average gold bug is. Deranged they are, all of them. Including you.


Spin please ignore... Social he consistently posts complete rubbish, argues nonesense and fails to answer any pertinent points put to him.

----------


## DrAndy

> Dumb ass





> you clown.


he also fails to manage his insults when someone disagrees with him

----------


## socal

[quote=Butterfly;1561415]


> Interest rates have never been so low in 50 years, bond prices have never been so high in 50 years.





> and yes there is a specific reason for that, but again it will be lost on you


oh so bonds will go up forever ? for another 50 years ? 



> Joe Public doesn't buy bonds, financial institutions and large market participants do. Yes, Joe Public is often wrong, that's why he is buying Gold these days


No, pension funds(Joe publics money) buy bonds by the boat load, bonds inflows have never been higher.




> Where would you invest $100,000 today ?





> If I was Joe Public, in Gold of course, where else


I bet anyone on this forum that has paid into a pension fund or has any money invested with a mainstream financial adviser owns bonds without even knowing it. You probably own bonds without knowing it.

On the other hand, I bet I am the only one on this forum that has bought gold this year.

So where are you investing that $100,000 ?

----------


## Ripley

today at 29 and change.. Will it go lower?

 Is it time to sell the Baht ?!

----------


## phomsanuk

*Baht will further rise despite measures: Korn*

----------


## The Bold Rodney

> I bet anyone on this forum that has paid into a pension fund or has any money invested with a mainstream financial adviser owns bonds without even knowing it. You probably own bonds without knowing it.


God Social you really do have a propensity for stating the obvious, apart from the fact that is... anyone knows all pension funds invest in securities!

----------


## StrontiumDog

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/...rming-business

ECONOMY 

*Korn admits stronger baht is harming business*
Published: 23/09/2010 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: News
 The strong baht is placing an added burden on business, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij says.

 
Korn: ‘Baht will strengthen further’

 But he also says there are opportunities offered by the stronger currency.

 The government and the Bank of Thailand are trying to manage the baht   to minimise fluctuations but the baht is likely to gain further ground,   he said.

 The baht has gained 8 per cent against the US dollar since early this year, to about 30.7 baht.

 "The baht is expected to appreciate further since the US dollar will   weaken," Mr Korn told an economic seminar last night held by   Ramkhamhaeng University's political science faculty.

 The US needs to repay more of its foreign debt and is battling to restore confidence in its economy, he said.

 Thai business operators should take advantage of the appreciation of the baht if they can.

 He suggested that exporters look to markets with stronger currencies   than the baht, such as Malaysia and Japan. Thai goods will look cheap in   such markets and exporters might be able to raise prices.

 Local firms could also take advantage of the strong baht to improve   their production capability and efficiency by upgrading their technology   and machinery. A stronger baht helps make imported raw materials and   machinery cheaper.

 Local investors should invest overseas. The government would ease regulations to make this easier for them.

 
Dhanin: ‘Don’t intervene’

 Mr Korn said the government was trying to build economic equality by opening up access to finance for poor people.

 Dhanin Chearavanont, chairman and CEO of the Charoen Pokphand (CP)   Group, said the government should not intervene in the baht to make it   weaker. This would benefit only some groups.

 The best way for the government to help business operators was to   deploy the country's capital reserves, which have increased as a result   of the stronger baht, to help firms improve machinery and production   capability.

 "CP is one of the hardest hit firms since up to 90% of the group's  raw  materials are bought locally and it is also a big exporter," Mr  Dhanin  said.
 The government should promote Thai goods in new markets where   exporters can take advantage of the stronger baht, particularly Japan   and Malaysia, he said.

 The Commerce Ministry should also turn its focus to elsewhere in   Southeast Asia, China, and India to develop markets for Thai goods,   instead of the US and Europe as in the past.

 Mr Dhanin said the government also should speed up investment in   infrastructure reliant on imported raw materials as it could make   savings with the stronger baht.

----------


## Thaihome

> Any intervention creates inflation(prices going up) The lack of intervention is why there is less inflation. Intervention would have made gold cost more for Thais, not less like it is now.


What if the central bank is buying currency in order to shore up the value?  Wouldn't that shrink the money supply, likely causing deflation?

TH

----------


## English Noodles

> I bet I am the only one on this forum that has bought gold this year.


I doubt that to be true.

----------


## Nostradamus

> So far, exports have not been heavily impacted by the rising baht and have continued to rise


^ that article suggests otherwise.

----------


## English Noodles

2010-09-23 15:38:29

Thailand’s currency, the baht is continued to appreciate threatening more losses to country’s exporters and trade groups. 

Analysts  said country’s plan to ease restrictions on fund outflows may not be  enough to stem an appreciation in the baht that threatens to slow growth  in overseas shipments. 

The central bank will allow companies to  invest and lend more abroad and give them more flexibility when  repatriating overseas earnings, moves aimed at alleviating pressure for  the baht to appreciate from its strongest level in 13 years. 

Governor  Tarisa Watanagase has so far resisted calls to introduce controls on  fund inflows, saying yesterday that existing measures to curb volatility  are sufficient. 

Policy makers including Commerce Minister  Porntiva Nakasai have urged more aggressive action amid concern the  baht’s strength will crimp exports that account for about two-thirds of  the economy. 

Thailand last imposed limits on fund inflows in  December 2006 to slow baht gains and protect exporters, a measure that  led to a divergence between the onshore traded value of the currency and  the offshore rate. The move also spurred the benchmark stock index’s  biggest slide in 16 years. 

The baht has advanced 8.5 percent  this year, the second- best performer among the 10 most actively-traded  currencies in Asia excluding Japan, as an export-led economic recovery  encouraged overseas investors to pour $741.3 million into Thailand’s  equities market. 

Thailand’s foreign reserves grew by $19.23 billion to $157.63 billion in the eight months through August.

http://www.commodityonline.com/futur...ts-4766-2.html

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> I bet anyone on this forum that has paid into a pension fund or has any money invested with a mainstream financial adviser owns bonds without even knowing it. You probably own bonds without knowing it.
> 
> 
> God Social you really do have a propensity for stating the obvious, apart from the fact that is... anyone knows all pension funds invest in securities!



Pension funds are investing in bonds because they think it will make them money, they don't have a mandate to invest in bonds. They could invest in gold if they wanted to but so far, they are not. They are piling into bonds, just like allot of people over the last 25 years. Its the mother of all bubbles.

It seems like there is allot of people here that got burned by the gold fall in the 80's. The reason gold fell was because interest rates went to 10-20%, do you see interest rates at 10 or 20%  now ? Do you see interest rates getting that high in the near future ? 

By staying in bonds or cash equivalents now, you will get burned again, just like in the 80's with gold.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
>  
> Any intervention creates inflation(prices going up) The lack of intervention is why there is less inflation. Intervention would have made gold cost more for Thais, not less like it is now.
> 
> 
> What if the central bank is buying currency in order to shore up the value?  Wouldn't that shrink the money supply, likely causing deflation?
> 
> TH


from Wiki
*Open market operations* are the means of implementing monetary policy by which a central bank controls the short term interest rate and the supply of base money in an economy, and thus indirectly the total money supply. This involves meeting the demand of base money at the target rate by buying and selling government securities, or other financial instruments. Monetary targets such as inflation, interest rates or exchange rates are used to guide this implementation.[1][2]


The central bank goes to the open market to buy a financial asset such as government bonds, foreign currency or gold. To pay for this, bank reserves in the form of new base money (for example newly printed cash) is transferred to the sellers bank, and the sellers account is credited. Thus, the total amount of base money in the economy has increased.(the BOT would usually buy US dollars if they intervened) 

 Conversely, if the central bank sells these assets in the open market, the amount of base money that the buyer's bank holds decreases, effectively shrinking base money.( causing deflation)  (appreciation of the currency)

Central banks don't totally control this, they can only sway it. The market controls it.

All central banks work slightly different, this ^ is just how the US and the Euro zone do it but the basics are the same.

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## The Bold Rodney

> Pension funds are investing in bonds because they think it will make them money, they don't have a mandate to invest in bonds.


Social for Christ's sake put your soap box away, nobody's metioned the term "mandate" and your gibbering like a old woman.

Just once try and stay with the topic, answer the points made to you by many posters and stop hedging all the time!  :rofl: 

And to be honest I'd trust any pension fund investment managers strategy over your golden drivel even when the finacial markets have fallen out of bed!

P.S. you never did take those tablets did you?

----------


## Butterfly

> Pension funds are investing in bonds because they think it will make them money, they don't have a mandate to invest in bonds. They could invest in gold if they wanted to but so far, they are not. They are piling into bonds, just like allot of people over the last 25 years. Its the mother of all bubbles.


never heard of the asset/liabilities matching dilemma haven't you  :rofl: 




> Do you see interest rates getting that high in the near future ?


yes. eventually, not in the very near future, but we might see a return to high interest rates eventually  :Smile:

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## Butterfly

we might be seeing the reverse of a J-curve in Thailand  :Razz: 

remember when the USD was very strong in the 80s and how that lead eventually to a deep recession ? BoT is trying to put a stop to local growth, inflation must be in the 10% range these days

ask yourself a simple question. What does 1,000 THB buy you today ? what did it buy you only 5 years ago ? that's right, for most Thai price have more than double.

----------


## socal

> we might be seeing the reverse of a J-curve in Thailand 
> 
> remember when the USD was very strong in the 80s and how that lead eventually to a deep recession ? BoT is trying to put a stop to local growth, inflation must be in the 10% range these days
> 
> ask yourself a simple question. What does 1,000 THB buy you today ? what did it buy you only 5 years ago ? that's right, for most Thai price have more than double.


 :deadhorsebig:  :deadhorsebig:  :deadhorsebig:  
You are totally wrong, and I could clearly state all the reasons why, but you will never listen because you refuse to learn anything so I will not even bother refuting your ignorance once again.

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## Butterfly

:rofl: 

you have something to teach us ? what would that be ? how to be delusional and ride the gold fever ?  :Smile:

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## Thaihome

> Originally Posted by Thaihome
> 
> So far, exports have not been heavily impacted by the rising baht and have continued to rise
> 
> 
> ^ that article suggests otherwise.


 
The article discusses the impact to the profitability of the exporters, not the value of the exports themselves.  The value of exports this year is on course to exceed the previous peaks of 2007/2008.  

The problem is the exporters are getting much less Baht for the USD they are paid in, hurting their bottom lines.  So far, the fact that the exported items are more expensive in USD has not caused the demand to go down.  If the Baht continues to rise, that may become a problem in the future.
TH

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## Butterfly

^ indeed, well said.

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## Nostradamus

> The value of exports this year is on course to exceed the previous peaks of 2007/2008.


I would like to see an independent confirmation of that.

----------


## Ripley

Korn: Baht will strengthen further

Handsome man, like an Asian Johhny Depp.
 SO is the baht going higher? 
 Should I  cashed out wednesday  at 29?

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## English Noodles

^ :smiley laughing:

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## socal

> you have something to teach us ? what would that be ? how to be delusional and ride the gold fever ?


Someone that knows absolutely nothing about money thinks that gold is going up. Just like a little kid that sees the nominal dollar price of gold going up. _It is far too complicated for you. 

_Failed Japanese FX Intervention Sends Gold To $1,300 | zero hedge

If you had sufficient intelligence for the subject, you would see that there is no gold fever, gold is the only constant in the equation. Ask people who bought gold with the Swiss Franc a month ago, if there is a "gold fever". 
Dollar Hits All Time Low Against Swiss Franc | zero hedge

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## socal

> Originally Posted by Nostradamus
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by Thaihome
> ...


Its not necessarily a problem. The Thai economy will just have to transition to a less export oriented economy. There is no way around it, any intervention that has been tried by other countries this year has failed

Intervention will not work for Thailand, it has not worked for Japan or Switzerland so it will not work for Thailand. If the BOT was smart(so far they have been) they will not even try.

BOJ Intervenes For Second Time In A Week, Fails | zero hedge

Swiss central bank lost billions with failed intervention - International Business Times

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## socal

> Korn: Baht will strengthen further
> 
> Handsome man, like an Asian Johhny Depp.
>  SO is the baht going higher? 
>  Should I  cashed out wednesday  at 29?


The long term to medium term trend for the Thai baht is higher. I said it on ThaiVisa about a year ago and I will say it here again.

Sure, the dollar could catch a bid in the short term but in the medium term , that doesn't matter.(unless of course you have a leveraged Forex account but if your that dumb then you will end up in the soup lines anyway)

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## socal

> ^ indeed, well said.


haha. and gold is in a bubble, as if.

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## Butterfly

nice graph, did you do it yourself in Excel ?  :Smile:

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## phomsanuk

The baht hit a 13- year high on Monday after the government revised up the gross domestic product growth projection for this year to 7.8 per cent, the third adjustment in six months.
 The baht rose by 0.4 per cent to Bt 30.58 per U.S. dollar at 4 p.m. Bangkok time today, after touching a 13-year high of Bt 30.55 per U.S. dollar.
 Funds inflows into stocks and bonds and encouraging Thai economic growth outlook  pressured the baht to appreciate.The baht could appreciate to around Bt 30.20 / U.S. dollar by the end of this year, Satit Rungkasiri, head of the Finance Ministry's Fiscal Policy Office said today.  :tieme:

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## StrontiumDog

*Policy interest hike can't contain baht rise, says BoT chief
*

*Policy interest hike can't contain baht rise, says BoT chief*


  วันพุธ ที่ 29 ก.ย. 2553 

   

   BANGKOK, Sept 29 – Outgoing Bank of Thailand (BoT) Governor  Tarisa Wattanagase on Tuesday rejected suggestions that the central bank  raise the policy interest rate to contain the stronger baht, saying  that the interest rate, whether it is low or high, could not curb the  foreign capital influx if the economy continued growing.

 She said foreign investors are rushing to invest in Asian countries  including Thailand because the regional economy had enjoyed strong  growth.

 Because of this, no matter whether the interest is raised or not, it  could not significantly help curb the foreign capital inflow.

 Actually, she said, Thailand’s policy interest rate is the second lowest  in the region. The central bank’s decision to raise the policy rate  twice in recent times was made to keep the market in balance, not  because of the tightening of Thailand's monetary policy.

 Mrs Tarisa said the central bank must oversee pricing stability because it could have an impact on the economy in the long run.

 She added that inflation in August grew only 3.3 per cent, but since the  economy expanded in all segments, particularly private consumption and  investment, it is expected that inflationary pressure would mount and  should be monitored with caution.

 “All countries in Asia have experienced the same currency appreciation.  It shows the regional economy is very strong. Simultaneously, the  monetary policy adopted by each country has been already adjusted to the  current circumstances,” said Mrs Tarisa. (MCOT online news)

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## Butterfly

we are in a reverse J-curve effect, awesome, don't think it was observed before, might be the first time  :Razz:

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## StrontiumDog

*Central bank: No need for more measures to oversee baht
*

*Central bank: No need for more measures to oversee baht*


  วันศุกร์ ที่ 01 ต.ค. 2553 

 
   BANGKOK, Oct 1  – The Bank of Thailand (BoT) sees no need to  issue  additional measures to oversee the baht value although the  currency has  strengthened by 9.46 per cent to 30.76 to the US dollar  September 1-24  compared with the same period last year, according the  central bank’s  chief economist.

 Mathee Supapongse, director of the BoT Domestic Economy Department,      said the bank had done nothing wrong regarding the baht movement and   therefore sees as unnecessary more measures to oversee it.

 Still, the bank closely watches foreign capital inflow into the country.

 He said that economic conditions in August continued expanding   satisfactorily although the production and export sectors grew at a   slower pace.

 Exports in August increased 23.6 per cent to US$16.29 million, down  from  the 41.8 per cent growth in the second quarter of this year.

 The demand for purchase orders from trading partners had slowed following the baht's recent rapid rise.

 It is expected that Thailand's exports will subsequently decrease ikn   value on a seasonal basis in some months, even though imports totaled   $15.44 billion, up 41.8 per cent in all categories from the previous   month.

 Simultaneously, private consumption and investment increased as seen in   the rise in the business confidence index in the three months ahead to   56.7 from 55.7 the month before.

 Tourism had also picked up with the number of foreign tourists reaching   1.26 million, up 10.3 per cent from the same month last year, he said.   (MCOT online news)

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## Nostradamus

> He said that economic conditions in August continued expanding satisfactorily although the production and export sectors grew at a slower pace.


Doesn't that contradict what the Government is saying and what TH posted earlier?

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## StrontiumDog

*http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingn...ntrol-measures
*
*FTI wants capital inflow controls*
Published:  1/10/2010 at 03:53 PMOnline news: Economics
 Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) chairman  Payungsak Chartsuthipol  has called on the Ministry of Finance and the  Bank of Thailand to  rapidly introduce foreign direct capital inflow  controls.

 “More than 100 billion baht in foreign capital has flowed into   Thailand over recent months. This has caused problems for manufacturers,   particularly the small and medium enterprises, due the baht’s   continuing appreciation,” said Mr Payungsak.

 The strong baht had affected the trade competitiveness of the   manufacturers as Thai products had become more expensive than those of   their competitors.

 The FTI chairman also wanted the central bank and the Monetary Policy   Committee to consider keeping the policy interest rate unchanged at   1.75 per cent.

 In addition, Mr Payungsak called on the Small and Medium Enterprise   Development Bank to set aside a five billion baht fund for providing   loans for the SMEs affected fby the baht’s appreciation.

 The FTI is preparing to discuss measures to curb the strong baht with   the Ministry of Finance, the BoT and the Ministry of Commerce, he said.

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## Mid

*Resignation of deputy BoT chief wont affect efforts to curb baht  surge, says PM*
วันเสาร์ ที่ 02 ต.ค. 2553 

 

*BANGKOK,* Oct 2   Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva on Friday  indicated that the resignation of Bank of Thailand (BoT) Deputy Governor  Bandid Nijathaworn would not affect efforts to curb the baht's  fluctuation.

 It is a pity Mr Bandid decided to quit his post. Personally, I know him  well. His resignation has not come from a different opinion on policy  [to] Mr Prasarn Trairatvorakul, the new governor, because the latter has  not yet started working at the central bank. I think the resignation  was made for personal reasons, he said.

 Mr Abhisit said he understood all parties concerned shared a common view  on the direction of the policy interest rate, although the Finance  Ministry wants to review the matter.

 Naturally, he said, outside agencies put a weight on economic expansion  when considering the policy interest rate direction while the central  bank has a duty to oversee economic stability.

 I think the policy adopted by the central bank on the interest rate  does not go against that of the government, he said.

 Asked whether the resignation of the deputy BoT chief, who oversees the  monetary stability, would cause a vacuum in efforts to address the baht  surge, the premier said he did not think it would happen because the  central bank had discussed the problem with the government all along and  had a common understanding of a proper way to cope with the baht  volatility.

mcot.net

ps , anyone seen the Finance Minister ? 

.

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## Butterfly

oops !!!

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## Thaihome

> Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
> 
> He said that economic conditions in August continued expanding satisfactorily although the production and export sectors grew at a slower pace.
> 
> 
> Doesn't that contradict what the Government is saying and what TH posted earlier?


Doesn't actually support what the government has been saying and I posted? 

TH

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## The Ghost Of The Moog

30.16 on the Bloomberg.

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## socal

> *Central bank: No need for more measures to oversee baht
> *
> 
> *Central bank: No need for more measures to oversee baht*
> 
> 
>   วันศุกร์ ที่ 01 ต.ค. 2553  BANGKOK, Oct 1  – The Bank of Thailand (BoT) sees no need to  issue  additional measures to oversee the baht value although the  currency has  strengthened by 9.46 per cent to 30.76 to the US dollar  September 1-24  compared with the same period last year, according the  central bank’s  chief economist.
> 
>  Mathee Supapongse, director of the BoT Domestic Economy Department,      said the bank had done nothing wrong regarding the baht movement and   therefore sees as unnecessary more measures to oversee it.
> ...


Looks like the BOT is learning from others mistakes rather then make them on their own. Good on them, learn from the stupidity of  BOJ and SNB  and their failed interventions.

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## StrontiumDog

*Bangkok Post : Korn: BoT to tackle strong baht
*
*Korn: BoT to tackle strong baht*

Published:  4/10/2010 at 04:42 PMOnline news: Economics
 The Bank of Thailand is responsible for  overseeing the baht's exchange rate and controlling its continually  increasing strength, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said on Monday.

 The Thai currency hit a 13-year high of 30.14 baht against the US dollar on Monday morning.

"The  central bank will have to address the continuing strong baht. The  Finance Ministry has already given its suggestions on the matter.
 
Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij

 "It is up to BoT governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul to decide what  measures will be used to handle the baht situation," Mr Korn said.

The  minister earlier suggested that the BoT should weigh the importance  between the baht's value and inflation, because raising the interest  rate would increase the difference between domestic and foreign interest  rates, which would definitely lead to the further appreciation of the  baht.

His ministry will meet people from the Commerce Ministry  and the private sector to discuss the liquidity for exporters affected  by the appreciating baht. The Export-Import Bank and the Small and  Medium Enterprise Bank will look after the liquidity problem.

Mr Korn also called on local commercial banks to reduce financial service fees further.

"Commercial banks should give fair treatment to the people since the cost is very low. The fees should be more just," he said.

He said the banks needed to drop their service fees continually since they can manage to lower their administrative costs.

"The  banks are using people's deposit money to make profit by issuing loans,  in which the difference between savings and loan interest rates is  high," the minister said.

He said Krung Thai Bank will be the  first commercial bank to reduce service fees, as agreed between the Thai  Bankers Association and the Bank of Thailand (BoT). The Finance  Ministry is Krung Thai Bank's major shareholder.

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## StrontiumDog

*Bangkok Post : BoT denies acting to curb baht
*
*BoT denies acting to curb baht*
Published:  5/10/2010 at 12:34 PMOnline news: Breakingnews
 The Bank of Thailand on Tuesday denied using stringent measures to curb the strong baht.

 The baht's value this morning slightly weakened to 30.20-30.22 baht  per US dollar from 30.17-30.1919 baht per US dollar yesterday.

BoT assistant governor Suchada Kirakul said the central bank was monitoring the baht's movements closely.

When  reporters asked whether the stock market slumped heavily on Monday due  to concerns that the BoT would implement new measures to tackle the  baht's appreciation, Mrs Suchada said the bourse could be influenced by  foreign central banks' intervention to prevent their currencies from  strengthening further.

However, she remained tightlipped when asked about the possibility the BoT would intervene in the foreign exchange market.

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## StrontiumDog

*Bangkok Post : TCC: BoT should rapidly step in
*
*TCC: BoT should rapidly step in*
Published:  5/10/2010 at 01:18 PMOnline news: Economics
 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) should rapidly  introduce measures to weaken the value of the Thai baht as trade  competitiveness of exporters is diminishing, chairman of the Thai  Chamber of Commerce (TCC) Dusit Nonthanakorn said on Tuesday.

 Mr Dusit pointed out that the baht’s value was as high as 30 baht to US dollar, strongest in the Asian region.

 “The values of our competitors’ currencies, such as Vietnam, South  Korea and China are all weaker than the Thai baht. Thai manufacturers  now have lost their trade competitiveness and therefore the central bank  should quickly step in to help them out”, he said.

 Asked about the Ministry of Finance’s policy to prevent the baht from  further appreciating by encouraging the private sector to seek new  export markets or to invest in foreign countries, TCC chairman said it  could not be done in a short period. It would take a year to look for  overseas trade partners and to start business.

 “I just speak out fact about the negative impact from baht’s  strengthening. If the government and the BoT fail to take action, I  don’t know what to do.

 “The appropriate value of baht could be at any level, but it must be  the level that enables Thai manufactuers to stay competitive on world  market”, he said.

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## phomsanuk

Today, strongest in 13 years and if that's not bad enough there is 3% inflation.

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## socal

> Today, strongest in 13 years and if that's not bad enough there is 3% inflation.



 Devaluation is inflation. If the baht falls in value, internationally traded commodities and currencies cost more for people earning baht.(INFLATION) 

If a strong currency is so bad then why don't you want one ?

----------


## socal

[quote=StrontiumDog;1572271]*Bangkok Post : TCC: BoT should rapidly step in
*
*TCC: BoT should rapidly step in*Published:  5/10/2010 at 01:18 PMOnline news: Economics


> The Bank of Thailand (BoT) should rapidly  introduce measures to weaken the value of the Thai baht as trade  competitiveness of exporters is diminishing, chairman of the Thai  Chamber of Commerce (TCC) Dusit Nonthanakorn said on Tuesday.


Why don't you lower your hourly pay too then Dusit ? Then you would be more competitive with your services too. Hell, work for 10,000 baht a month, then you can be the chairman of the Thai Chamber of everything.




> Mr Dusit pointed out that the bahts value was as high as 30 baht to US dollar, strongest in the Asian region.


So the prices of internationally traded commodities and currencies has gone down the most in the Asian region. Too much of a good thing....



> The values of our competitors currencies, such as Vietnam, South  Korea and China are all weaker than the Thai baht. Thai manufacturers  now have lost their trade competitiveness and therefore the central bank  should quickly step in to help them out, he said.


Ok, step in to keep the country poor. Keep them poor so westerners can keep coming on dirt cheap holidays while Thai people sit in factories all day making jewelry and shoes.




> Asked about the Ministry of Finances policy to prevent the baht from  further appreciating by encouraging the private sector to seek new  export markets or to invest in foreign countries, TCC chairman said it  could not be done in a short period. It would take a year to look for  overseas trade partners and to start business.


 a year ? Thats nothing.




> I just speak out fact about the negative impact from bahts  strengthening. If the government and the BoT fail to take action, I  dont know what to do.


 Set up a factory in Detroit, that's what you can do.




> The appropriate value of baht could be at any level, but it must be  the level that enables Thai manufactuers to stay competitive on world  market, he said.


Manufacturing isn't everything.

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

Just broke through 30

----------


## StrontiumDog

*Bangkok Post : Baht strengthens to 29.95/97 a dollar
*
*Baht strengthens to 29.95/97 a dollar*
Published:  6/10/2010 at 11:06 AMOnline news: Breakingnews
 The baht continued to strengthen, trading at  29.95/97 baht to the US dollar about 10.45am on Wednesday, an economist  at CIMB (Thailand) Bank said.

 The baht’s value was the strongest in 13 years, the banker added.

 The baht’s strengthening was caused by the same old factors - the  weakening US dollar and the continuing foreign direct investment inflow,  he said.

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## Ripley

Can someone  please explain to me why the rates for selling and buying are different and what rate applies to selling baht and buying dollars 

 I'm about to unload the baht,  any advice for getting it into dollars? 
Seems banks in Thailand are all about gouging fees in foreign exchange accounts - should I wire it to my  Singapore foreign currency account in baht?   

 Any thoughts on better to buy dollars or euros?

----------


## Butterfly

what are you trying to do exactly ? which amount ?

if less than 10,000 USD, not worth it

banks take commissions, that's their business, not sure what so difficult to understand

otherwise you can enter into FX Swaps and neutralize THB fluctuations, but it will tight your money

----------


## Ripley

^ thanks for that 

 It's 3 million baht, I can really make some money if I do this right- I bought at 33, so ... I want to get the baht into dollars  ( or Euros , which would be better) and then get it to my Singapore account

----------


## Ripley

Anyone else? 

..why are rates different for buying and selling?


 If I'm selling baht and buying dollars......which applies ?

----------


## Butterfly

you have a bid/ask spread

you sell at the bid and buy at the ask

33 to 29 is a small overall spread, that's 4 THB x 100,000 = 400,000 THB or 13,000 USD

a return of 13%

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## Butterfly

you just do the transfer from THB into your Singapore account USD accounts

banks will take their fees, and you will probably loose 3% in the process, otherwise you have to open a FX trading account, but that's a different ball game

again the question, what are you trying to do ? speculate or simply buy something in USD ? the motivation is important and can't simply be about making a quick buck,

----------


## socal

> Can someone  please explain to me why the rates for selling and buying are different and what rate applies to selling baht and buying dollars 
> 
>  I'm about to unload the baht,  any advice for getting it into dollars? 
> Seems banks in Thailand are all about gouging fees in foreign exchange accounts - should I wire it to my  Singapore foreign currency account in baht?   
> 
>  Any thoughts on better to buy dollars or euros?


Euros are better then dollars long term. 

Why you so compelled to get out of baht I dont know....

----------


## Butterfly

I wouldn't be so sure about Euros, the PIGS are still there

maybe RMB ? since the door is going to be opened soon, why not buy RMB ?

----------


## Ripley

The goal is to take advantage of the higher ( lower? ) baht - dollar and then get the funds out of Thailand.

 Questin  1 IS;  Convert here or in Singapore ? Offshore vs onshore I guess this is? 

 and 

 Question 2  Am I buying or selling  because I see 2 very different rates  ( I''m selling baht but buying ...


Question 3  Dollars or Euros  better? 

 I think FX in Thailand is a scam , all banks had 1% fees 

 How will I lose 3 %

----------


## socal

*Yen Now Back To Pre-Intervention Levels*

I think the Bank of Thailand is paying attention to this. (they better be)

The Bank of Japan has now learned the hard way that these days $20 billion doesn't buy you much: specifically - about 20 days, and a Geoffrey Raymond painting of Ben Bernanke running naked behind the US dollar with a chainsaw and a homicidal grin. The USDJPY is now back to where it was when Shirakawa injected Y2.125 trillion, only to see the impact trickle down to nothing. Considering Monday's BOJ action did nothing to weaken the yen, it is almost certain Shirakawa will pull another $20 billion rabbit out of his hat: this time we expect the impact to last at most half as long as the last time.

----------


## Ripley

> I wouldn't be so sure about Euros, the PIGS are still there
> 
> maybe RMB ? since the door is going to be opened soon, why not buy RMB ?



" Door" ?  What door?  I have RMB accounts in MY, MYR might be better?  Fits in as I am moving there.

----------


## Ripley

> Originally Posted by Ripley
> 
> 
> Can someone  please explain to me why the rates for selling and buying are different and what rate applies to selling baht and buying dollars 
> 
>  I'm about to unload the baht,  any advice for getting it into dollars? 
> Seems banks in Thailand are all about gouging fees in foreign exchange accounts - should I wire it to my  Singapore foreign currency account in baht?   
> 
>  Any thoughts on better to buy dollars or euros?
> ...



  I want out of Thailand and  as the baht is so High  ( or low ) this seems to be a good time to exchange 

 Please   All I want is info on how best to exchangeand GTFO TLand   - will start my own thread , thanks all

----------


## Butterfly

> The goal is to take advantage of the higher ( lower? ) baht - dollar and then get the funds out of Thailand.
> 
>  Questin  1 IS;  Convert here or in Singapore ? Offshore vs onshore I guess this is? 
> 
>  and 
> 
>  Question 2  Am I buying or selling  because I see 2 very different rates  ( I''m selling baht but buying ...
> 
> 
> ...


I don't think you can convert here and do a USD transfer, they would do another conversion in THB first and then send THB to the receiving bank. The receiving bank will do the conversion depending on the base currency of your receiving account.

So you have 3M THB, you ask your bank to do an outgoing international transfer, you will probably need to fill out some BOT forms explaining the motivation for the transfer, not sure if this is still the case, it used to even a few years ago. Make sure to ask the Thai bank to send THB, not USD, in case they can do the conversion locally, that's where you could get fucked. The receiving bank will do the conversion for you at the "Interbank rate" + their commissions, could be anything between 0.75% to 1.50%, or they would buy at the "ask" + commissions + VAT + whatever fee they imagine

----------


## socal

> I wouldn't be so sure about Euros, the PIGS are still there
> 
> maybe RMB ? since the door is going to be opened soon, why not buy RMB ?


The ECB/Euro has the piigs, the FED/Dollar has California and Illinois ect.

I know for a fact that the Euro will out-live the dollar.

----------


## Butterfly

> I know for a fact that the Euro will out-live the dollar.


oh yeah, what fact ?  :Smile: 

or do you mean you have become a bit of a specialist for pigs since you last trip to Mexico  :mid:

----------


## Ripley

> Originally Posted by Ripley
> 
> 
> The goal is to take advantage of the higher ( lower? ) baht - dollar and then get the funds out of Thailand.
> 
>  Questin  1 IS;  Convert here or in Singapore ? Offshore vs onshore I guess this is? 
> 
>  and 
> 
> ...


 Yes this is what I wanted to know,  thank you 
 Already have the form from when I brought money in, though actually only have a copy , Immigration took the original, Oh Shit...


 Best check with DBS to make sure I can transfer baht  

Stil confused on the buying vs selling rate, which applies?

----------


## phomsanuk

Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said last month that Thailands rising currency reserves show that the central bank has already been buying dollars to curb volatility in the baht.

----------


## 9999

You're better off doing business with the Thai banks than the Aussies. I transfer money each month from Australia. Once I made a mistake on the transfer and had the Aussie bank convert to Baht BEFORE sending the wire. The rate I got was 27.4. The Bangkok bank rate was 29.2, so the aussie bank has gouged about 7% ontop of the already juiced out global buy rate. Their reason, the spreads in 'high risk' currencies are wider because they're more volatile. Yuan is under the same category as Baht with this bank (St. George), but the good ole US dollar has the low risk spread which is still larger than what they use in Thailand. So at least if dealing with Aussie banks, always get the bank in Thailand to do the conversion. And yes, Bangkok bank will transfer to AUD (and I'm assuming USD) before sending the wire, so you should be charged nothing at all by your bank and have no tax hassles. At least in Australia for amounts under 10K AUD, though the anal septic IRS probably wants to trace and tax every penny you ever touch. 

As far as figuring the USD is bottoming out so it's a good time to buy USD, that's pretty silly. Firstly, anyone who can so confidently predict the currency market should be extremely wealthy (Socal mate you must be rolling in it). Secondly, if you're going to speculate on something like currencies, it's much better to go with the trend than to predict the turnaround, so personally I'd be looking to sell USD right now if I was still holding any of that rag currency.

----------


## Ripley

OK this confused me ^

 I seem to have a real number dyslexia ..


  Sending and receiving

at different rates.
 I need  101 

So I'm getting the  50 - 100  , " buy " rate ?


 and exchanging before in TH  or after in Sing ?




 So do you agree;  better to sent THB from TH to Sing  in Baht and exchange to other there?

 Is it even possible to wire  USD  or other out of T Land  

Should I be buying MYR  or EU ? 

 Thanks

----------


## Butterfly

> Best check with DBS to make sure I can transfer baht


DBS doesn't accept THB, they will translate into the receiving account currency. You can't hold THB accounts outside Thailand, with a few exceptions (I have one but it's restricted to certain uses).

----------


## Butterfly

> So do you agree; better to sent THB from TH to Sing in Baht and exchange to other there?


This is where the confusion is, the transfer and the conversion happens at the same time, what you will see is a withdrawal of THB in your account and a credit in USD in Singapore. Therefore you need to know which currency to transfer to before initiating the transfer. DBS will not hold THB for you in Singapore, they can't, they will translate it as soon as they receive the funds. The receiving account is the base currency for the currency translation.




> Is it even possible to wire USD or other out of T Land


it was at some point, but I don't think it is now, or maybe under certain restrictions, probably for Thai businesses doing exports.

----------


## 9999

^^ Since Thai banks are very fair with their exchange rates, at least compared to Aussie banks, probably best to try get the funds exchanged at the Thai bank before sending. Banks with their base in a 'major' currency will likely hammer you on the xe rate when Baht hits their bank. It is possible to wire Euro and USD out of Thailand so that is your best option IMHO.

----------


## Ripley

> Originally Posted by Ripley
> 
> 
> Can someone  please explain to me why the rates for selling and buying are different and what rate applies to selling baht and buying dollars 
> 
>  I'm about to unload the baht,  any advice for getting it into dollars? 
> Seems banks in Thailand are all about gouging fees in foreign exchange accounts - should I wire it to my  Singapore foreign currency account in baht?   
> 
>  Any thoughts on better to buy dollars or euros?
> ...



 Why ? Do you  recommend keeping baht?

----------


## Ripley

> Originally Posted by Ripley
> 
> So do you agree; better to sent THB from TH to Sing in Baht and exchange to other there?
> 
> 
> This is where the confusion is, the transfer and the conversion happens at the same time, what you will see is a withdrawal of THB in your account and a credit in USD in Singapore. Therefore you need to know which currency to transfer to before initiating the transfer. DBS will not hold THB for you in Singapore, they can't, they will translate it as soon as they receive the funds. The receiving account is the base currency for the currency translation.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



 I have a foreign currency account in Sing and believe I can hold any currency  Better check that too 

 So what you are saying is opposite 9999 re EU transfer  But still 

 I guess I want ot know is it better to exchange it here or Sing and that depends on th eindividual banks correct?

----------


## Butterfly

> So what you are saying is opposite 9999 re EU transfer But still


he is doing the transfer from overseas, it's different. The THB is a controlled currency, unlike major currencies. So the overseas bank can't buy directly THB so they go offshore to buy them in a swap and that's where you get fucked. On the other hand, local banks have access to THB and therefore give you a better rate.

----------


## 9999

^ yep but also saying Thai banks will exchange Baht to USD, EURO etc in house at close to the best retail exchange rates in the world. You can buy USD bank notes from a chinese money changing house here for extremely competetive rates if it's a decent amount.

----------


## Ripley

Please continue  at 


https://teakdoor.com/business-finance...ml#post1573902 (Baht into dollars or Euro? Best way to exchange)

----------


## Butterfly

> You can buy USD bank notes from a chinese money changing house here for extremely competetive rates if it's a decent amount.


in 3M THB notes ? don't think it's worth it, and quite risky

Thai Banks will also go to offshore swap to buy USD, and you might get screwed again on the USD rates. With spread of 10% sometimes between onshore and offshore, we are talking 10,000 USD exchange rate fee  :Razz:

----------


## 9999

Admittedly I've only ever transferred any decent amount into THB not the other way around, but I know a few guys that routinely send USD to the states and they always get the Thai bank to transfer to USD in Thailand, they tell me, otherwise the US banks will gouge them. 

I know one (Thai) guy that was travelling to the USA, and exchanged in the Chiang Mai chinese currency brokers THB cash to USD cash $7,000. The rate he got, he was losing less than 0.5% of the spreadless rate. Doubt he would have got that rate taking THB or traveller's cheques to USA. Just my personal experince and antecdotes. The 10% spread I only ever experienced in Australia, changing AUD cash to USD cash.

----------


## Ripley

Would 3 mil Baht  fit in a bag I could carry ?

For 11-13, 000 USD ? I can live on that for a year

----------


## Ripley

It'a all so confusing, I've always just parked money in CD's 
 Need to really learn about this.
 Like I have number dyslexia as I said earlier

----------


## Butterfly

> Like I have number dyslexia as I said earlier


if you do, maybe not a good idea to enter into currency swaps and exchange rates as it can be very confusing even for those who don't suffer from it  :Razz:

----------


## Ripley

Agree.

Time to move on from T land and  this is a good time to unload the baht.
 Do you it will go lower ( or higher ..?? Dyslexia ... )

----------


## DrAndy

oh dear, life is so difficult if you have too much money

dunno why you worry, the banks will screw you whatever

----------


## Thormaturge

[quote=Ripley;1573919]Would 3 mil Baht fit in a bag I could carry ?

I've got a bag ThB 3,million would fit into nicely and I'll gladly demonstrate it to you personally.

----------


## socal

> Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said last month that Thailands rising currency reserves show that the central bank has already been buying dollars to curb volatility in the baht.


The Bank of Japan has been buying allot more dollars then Thailand. I don't think Thailand has bought any dollars, they have been selling.

The Japanese Yen just hit a 15 year high today. This was after the biggest intervention of any central bank this year.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by Ripley
> ...


Yeah, its going up in value for fundamental reasons, the dollar is going down

----------


## socal

> Would 3 mil Baht  fit in a bag I could carry ?
> 
> For 11-13, 000 USD ? I can live on that for a year


Thats what gold is good for, its going up in value too.

----------


## socal

..Thats $1359, not $1259 where it was a few days ago.

----------


## Ripley

> Originally Posted by Ripley
> 
> 
> Would 3 mil Baht  fit in a bag I could carry ?
> 
> For 11-13, 000 USD ? I can live on that for a year
> 
> 
> Thats what gold is good for, its going up in value too.


 Ok I can buy gold in Thailand?   HOw t make sure I get the right weight and quality?

----------


## StrontiumDog

KResearch: Baht to move in the range of 29.70-30.10 THB/USD this week : National News Bureau of Thailand

KResearch: Baht to move in the range of 29.70-30.10 THB/USD this week                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

BANGKOK, 11 October  2010 (NNT) - Kasikorn Bank Research Center  (KResearch) has predicted  that the baht might move in the range of  29.70.60 and 30.10 baht against  the greenback this week. 

According to KResearch, the monthly value-added tax payments will be   paid through the banking system during the end of this week.  No other   factors affecting the nation’s money market are present at the moment. 

   Meanwhile, short-term interest rates in the Thai money market should   remain around 1.75 percent; the baht might swing in the range of 29.70   to 30.10 Baht per US Dollar. Factors to keep an eye on include the Bank   of Thailand (BoT)’s move to maintain the stability of the baht, and   directions of other regional currencies and markets. 

External factors to be taken into account this week include the US’s   economic figures, currency movement, inventory data, August’s trade   balance, and the Fed’s reports on the current economic situation and   unemployment. Another factor that should be taken into account is   China’s monthly trade balance.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by Ripley
> ...


There is reputable gold dealers in Thailand that sell bullion. Ask on Thaivisa, some people on there buy all the time.

----------


## Ripley

^  Thanks, but long banned from TV. 

 I'm also not anywhere near Bangkok.

----------


## Thaihome

*Bond yield tax weighed*

*Levy on foreigners likely to slow inflows* 

Published: 12/10/2010 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: Business



The Finance Ministry is studying the pros and cons of scrapping a long-standing waiver on capital gains taxes for foreign investors in the local bond market, says Deputy Finance Minister Pradit Phataraprasit.
If completed in time, a package of measures aimed at assisting businesses adversely affected by the appreciation of the baht, together with new tax measures to deter speculative inflows would be considered by the cabinet today, he added.
The study follows reports Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij may propose to the cabinet a new measure to control foreign capital inflows to slow the pace of the appreciating baht, coupled with tariff measures to ease the burden on Thai small and medium-sized business entrepreneurs (SMEs).
Mr Pradit said one idea being considered is to scrap the current exemption on capital-gains taxes for fixed-income investments for foreign investors, and unify tax rules with the 15% capital gains tax paid on investments by Thai individuals.
In any case, the government this week is expected to announce a plan of assistance measures to help SMEs with limited resources to hedge against currency risk or who have been particularly affected by currency movements due to low import content.
"We still have a lot of topics that need to be discussed as there are pros and cons to each tactic. Any group of measures can provide a different outcome," said Areepong Phucha-oom, permanent-secretary for the Finance Ministry.
The baht and other regional currencies have gained strongly against the dollar this year due to trade surpluses and capital inflows as investors seek to take advantage of higher yields in Asia's high-performing economies.
With interest rates in the US and Eurozone near zero, investment capital has poured into the region to profit from higher interest rates as well as stronger prospects for capital gains and currency appreciation due to stronger economic fundamentals.
Imposing a capital gains tax would effectively reduce the yields on investments and the attractiveness of local debt. Government bond yields yesterday corrected sharply on reports that authorities are considering a capital gains tax, with the five-year bond yield jumping 16.69 basis points to 2.71594% and the 10-year bond up 12.22 points to 3.12437%.
One hundred basis points is equal to one percentage point. Bond yields move opposite to prices.
The baht has become a political flashpoint in recent months, with industry groups warning that the stronger currency will hurt the country's export competitiveness over the next several months.
On the other hand, a strong baht reduces the cost of imports, in particular oil, and also eases inflationary pressure within the economy, giving leeway to the central bank to maintain lower interest rates.
Mr Pradit said authorities would co-ordinate programmes with state-controlled banks to develop hedging instruments for private businesses.
Dusit Nontanakorn, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said local businesses were having trouble setting export prices due to the volatility in currency rates.
"When you set the selling price today, the actual delivery won't be for another two months, and who knows what the baht will be then," he said.
"[An exporter] might profit 5% or 10% from a sale and be happy. But if the baht appreciates 10% over the same period, it means a loss. Sometimes you can only accept the loss, just to help maintain the customer relationship."

----------


## Butterfly

about fucking time,

----------


## socal

these are not speculative inflows. This action is bullshit and will probably not get through.

----------


## StrontiumDog

http://www.tannetwork.tv/tan/ViewData.aspx?DataID=1036005

Baht Control Measures  Rolled Out 

UPDATE : 12 October 2010                           

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajvia revealed  today's Cabinet meeting  endorsed the Finance Ministry's suggestion to  collect a 15-percent  withholding tax on margins and interest rate  profits which foreign  investors earn from their possession of domestic  bonds. 

The requirement will be imposed on new transactions carried out from tomorrow onwards.

The levy covers foreign investors' incomes on bonds issued by the government, state-run enterprises, and the Bank of Thailand.

The government has also introduced two more measures to contain the baht   surge and to help small and medium entrepreneurs, or SMEs, in the   export sector. 

One is an accelerated disbursement of foreign currency-dominated budgets   set aside for government and state-run enterprises' investments in  this  year's fourth quarter. The amount totals around 50 billion baht.    The  measure is designed to encourage business operators to subscribe  foreign  currencies in advance to enhance their competitive edge. 

Another is to provide small and medium exporters with easier access to loans and more solutions to secure their revenue.

The Cabinet has ordered the state-run Small Business Guarantee   Corporation to offer forward contracts for SME operators by charging   them a fee of 0.75 percent of their export revenue. 

The bank has also been asked to give loans to SME exporters of up to   300,000 US dollars each, under a total credit line of 200 million US   dollars. 

Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij believes the new package will help up   to 17,000 SME operators nationwide and ease pressure on the baht. Korn   said the government has not decided when these measures will end.

----------


## StrontiumDog

*http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/...-baht-approved
*
*Measures to weaken baht approved*
Published: 12/10/2010 at 04:14 PMOnline news: Economics
 The cabinet has approved three measures to curb the strengthening baht, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said on Tuesday.



The first measure is to slow down foreign capital inflow by removing   the exemption from the 15 per cent withholding tax on capital-gains for   fixed-income investments for foreign investors.

 Another measure is to promote capital outflow by encouraging state   agencies and enterprises to expedite the disbursement of investment   funds in foreign currencies and buy foreign currencies in advance.

The third measure is to help small- and medium-sized business entrepreneurs affected by the appreciation of the Thai currency.

Mr  Korn said the Export-Import Bank, the Islamic Bank, the Small and   Medium Enterprise Development Bank and Krung Thai Bank will provide   foreign exchange risk insurance for small- and medium-sized exporters   entering a forward contract at no more than US$500,000  (about 15   million baht) each.

He said the Small Business Credit Guarantee  Corporation (SBCGC) will  launch a project to promote businesses to enter  into foreign currency  forward contracts with commercial banks. Small-  and medium-sized  exporters will pay only 0.75 per cent of the insurance  fee.

"The deadline for all the measures has not been set yet but  the  measures relating to the banking system are effective immediately.  The  tax collection measures will take effect tomorrow," the minister  said.

He said the government would consider introducing  additional measures  to curb the baht’s value if speculative cash inflow  causes further  heavy fluctuation in the exchange rate.
 
Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij

 He said his ministry will keep a close watch on the baht’s movement   and track the real cause of the continuing foreign direct investment   inflow.

“There will be no addition measures to oversee the baht’s value for the time being,” he said.

Mr  Korn was confident the decision to scrap a long standing waiver on   capital gains taxes for foreign investors in the local bond market,   including re-imposing a 15 per cent withholding tax, would not lead to   an immediate outflow of foreign investment capital.

The capital gains taxes would not be retroactive and apply only on the new transactions, he said.

The  minister said both capital gains taxes and the measures to speed up   foreign currency investment spending by state agencies and enterprises   would help ease pressure on the baht.

----------


## StrontiumDog

*http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/loca...n-t-be-stopped
*
*Rampant baht can't be stopped*

*Few believe government can fight outside pressures*
Published: 13/10/2010 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: News
 Financial experts have expressed little  confidence in the government's  measures to rein in the baht as they  believe outside influences are  far too powerful and likely to stay that  way.


In the opinion of Prapas Tonpibulsak, chief investment officer of   Ayudhya Fund Management, Asian economies remain attractive to foreign   investors as those of Europe and the US are too weak.

 And it could take a week or more for the dust to clear from the new measures to judge how effective they are, he said.
*See also*: Business applauds the bonds taxTuesday, the baht remained strong at 29.98/30.00 to the dollar   compared to 30.03/30.06 the day before, compounding the problems of   exporters.

 The government and the Bank of Thailand have scrambled over the past   week to try to rein in the baht's spectacular rise against the dollar.

 The central bank has introduced steps to promote overseas investment   of Thai companies and lifted the ceiling on foreign currency deposits.

 The cabinet yesterday endorsed more measures proposed by the Finance   Ministry to counter the baht's appreciation and to ease the damage being   caused to small and medium exporters.

 These include reimposing the 15% withholding tax on interest gains  for  foreign investors in the local state bond market. This will be in   effect from today but will not be retroactive.

 Niwat Kanjanaphoomin, president of the Thai Bond Market Association   (ThaiBMA), said the effect of this would be to discourage foreign   inflows of capital into the bond market.

 Besides trying to control the money influx, the cabinet is promoting   capital outflows by speeding up foreign currency investment by   government and state enterprises. This is designed to reduce the impact   on small and medium exporters by supporting forward contracts and   providing them with soft loans.

 Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij expects the steps to ease the   baht's rise and help reduce foreign exchange risks for 17,000 small and   medium exporters.

 But to market analysts, the steps are only a mild remedy that will  not  rein in the pace of the strengthening baht which has reached 11%   against foreign currencies since early this year.

 Even Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva concedes the measures will not solve the problem.

 "Going on [global] economic trends, the baht is not expected to get any weaker in the near future," he said yesterday.

 "The measures instead are aimed at assisting small and medium exporters and will hopefully slow capital inflow."

 Mr Abhisit indicated the government may add more steps in the next  two  weeks to encourage the private sector to import machinery that will   help boost productivity and reap benefits from the baht's appreciation.

 Mr Prapas said it will take about a week to get a clearer picture of whether the government is on track.

 "It is too early [to jump to a conclusion]. At least one week from  now  we might probably see the picture of the impact of the measures," he   said.

 "We have to admit the remedy may not be strong enough. Asia is still a   haven for investors compared to Europe and the US where the economies   are weakening.

 "Also, the interest rate is still far higher than elsewhere in the region."

 Barclays Capital Research, like other market observers, agrees the impact of the measures on the baht will be minimal.

 "At the margin, the elimination of foreign investors' exemption from   the withholding tax is likely to moderate the pace of the baht's   appreciation. But we do not believe these types of transactions are the   primary source of the baht's strength," it said in a report.

 "Even with the reduced attractiveness of Thai government bonds, we   expect the baht's appreciation to continue over the next year,   especially under expectations that the US dollar will remain weak in the   coming months."

----------


## StrontiumDog

*Too early for measures to limit baht surge now, says MPC
*

*Too early for measures to limit baht surge now, says MPC*


  วันพุธ ที่ 13 ต.ค. 2553 

 
   BANGKOK, Oct 13 – The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has no plan to  provide  new measures to contain the stronger baht since it believes it  is  premature to do that, according to Siri Karncharoendee, a member of  the  Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

 Speaking after a special MPC meeting Tuesday, he said the committee   discussed the continued baht appreciation and monitored progress on   implementing government measures to curb the currency surge.

 “The MPC must wait and see how effective previous state measures can   rein in the continued baht rise. The panel believes that it is too early   for the central bank to issue new measures to cope with the currency   appreciation,” he said.

 Amphon Kitti-amphon, another MPC member, said the Cabinet-endorsed   measure proposed by the Finance Ministry to remove the exemption of the   15 per cent withholding tax on capital gains for fixed income   investments for foreign investors as part of its effort to ease the   stronger baht was justified as it could give both local and foreign   investors equal and fair treatment in terms of tax collection.

 In theory, he believed the move would be able to curb foreign capital   influx to some extent, but it takes time to monitor whether the measure   is effective.

 Currently, he said, the baht is not the most extreme performer in the   region, but had strengthened at a lower level than the Malaysian ringgit   and the Indonesian rupiah. (MCOT online news)

----------


## StrontiumDog

*http://www.mcot.net/cfcustom/cache_page/114237.html
*

*Government won’t target specific exchange rate, says PM*


  วันพุธ ที่ 13 ต.ค. 2553 

 
   BANGKOK, Oct 13 – Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva on Tuesday   asserted that his government did not intend to targeting a specific   exchange rate, saying measures issued to curb the baht surge now are   aimed at encouraging the private and public sectors to adjust to the   currency direction.

 Speaking after Tuesday's Cabinet meeting, Mr Abhisit said the main   measures approved include a curb on foreign capital inflows,   facilitation of capital outflows, enhancement of currency exchange   liquidity, and assistance for people affected by the baht surge.

 The prime minister affirmed the government had no plan to set the   currency exchange target. Ongoing measures to contain the baht rise had   been taken partly because it could make the private and public sector   realize that they themselves should make adjustments if the baht   continues strengthening.

 “With implementation of the measures, we want to give small exporters a   signal on how they have to adjust themselves to the situation. In   particular, how they should manage debt and what they should do if they   want to import new technologies,” he said. (MCOT online news)

----------


## Butterfly

Time to borrow in USD baby like it was in 1991 !!! good times are back  :Smile:

----------


## socal

> *http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/loca...n-t-be-stopped
> *
> *Rampant baht can't be stopped*
> 
> *Few believe government can fight outside pressures*Published: 13/10/2010 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: NewsFinancial experts have expressed little  confidence in the government's  measures to rein in the baht as they  believe outside influences are  far too powerful and likely to stay that  way.
> 
> 
> In the opinion of Prapas Tonpibulsak, chief investment officer of   Ayudhya Fund Management, Asian economies remain attractive to foreign   investors as those of Europe and the US are too weak.
> 
> ...


thats what i said 5 pages ago

----------


## Butterfly

> Time to borrow in USD baby like it was in 1991 !!! good times are back


damn, I hate it when I am right, here we go  :mid: 




> BBL dollar debt 
> 
> FINANCE: Bangkok Bank plans to issue dollar-denominated bonds with maturities of five and 10 years to help fund overseas business, a senior executive said yesterday. 
> 
> We see an opportunity in the market and interest rates now look reasonable. The funding will partly help support business in our overseas branches, said the executive, who declined to be identified. 
> He declined to disclose the amount or timing of the issues. 
> 
> Sources said each tranche would be worth at least $250 million, with Morgan Stanley as the lead arranger.

----------


## Butterfly

Debt is in full fashion again for Thai companies  :Razz: 




> CPF bond plan 
> 
> FINANCE: Charoen Pokphand Foods Plc, the country’s biggest chicken exporter, plans to issue bonds with terms of four and seven years in late October or early November. 
> The bonds are rated A+ by Tris Ratings, which said the issue size would be about 8 billion baht. 
> 
> The four-year issue would have a coupon of 3.0% in the first three years and 4.0% in the fourth year, said CPF. The seven-year bonds will pay 3.0% in the first three years, 4.0% in the fourth and fifth years and 5.0% in the last two years.

----------


## DrAndy

> thats what i said 5 pages ago





> damn, I hate it when I am right, here we go


gosh, you are both genii

----------


## Thaihome

> Originally Posted by Butterfly
> 
> 
> Time to borrow in USD baby like it was in 1991 !!! good times are back 
> 
> 
> damn, I hate it when I am right, here we go 
> 
> 
> ...


 
Not sure how the FX would be a motivation for this transaction.  Seems to me that to issue dollar bonds would just increase the amount of the liability that is translated into baht in Bangkok Bank books if the baht continues to appreciate. 
TH

----------


## The Ghost Of The Moog

> Originally Posted by Butterfly
> 
> 
> Time to borrow in USD baby like it was in 1991 !!! good times are back



Why would you want to borrow dollars? 

You yesterday were quoting with apparent approval a piece which said the dollar was nearing an inflection point and is poised to strengthen.

And the day before yesterday you were approving of the withholding tax that could help weaken the Baht.

----------


## Butterfly

> Why would you want to borrow dollars?
> 
> You yesterday were quoting with apparent approval a piece which said the dollar was nearing an inflection point and is poised to strengthen.
> 
> And the day before yesterday you were approving of the withholding tax that could help weaken the Baht.


me personally ? I think you misread my comment about the USD borrowing. I was referring to Thai companies abilities to borrow in USD because of the THB strength.

A bit like the Brits borrowing in Euro when the GBP was strong. It's a dangerous debt because it has a currency exposure on the top of the interest rate exposure.

----------


## Nostradamus

> You're better off doing business with the Thai banks than the Aussies.


My Aussie accounts with NAB and Westpac are great. Far superior to any service from any Thai bank accounts I have including Kasikorn, Bangkok Bank and SCB.

----------


## Butterfly

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> thats what i said 5 pages ago
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I wish you hadn't say that by associating my name with socal  :Razz:

----------


## StrontiumDog

*Continued baht rise costs some industries Bt90-100 billion already
*

*Continued baht rise costs some industries Bt90-100 billion already*


  วันศุกร์ ที่ 15 ต.ค. 2553 

 
   BANGKOK, Oct 15 – The continued strengthening of Thailand's  baht  currency has incurred some Bt90-100 billion in damages to the  country’s  industrial sector, according to the Federation of Thai  Industries  (FTI).

 FTI chairman Payungsak Chartsutipol said various measures taken by the   government to help small entrepreneurs affected by the rising baht   sounded satisfactory because it enabled the entrepreneurs to import   machinery to improve their product quality and boost competitiveness in   the medium and long terms.

 However, he conceded the latest measures issued by the government had   been taken with an aim of helping only the baht surge-affected small-   and medium-size enterprises (SMEs).

 Regarding ongoing efforts to oversee the baht value, he said, it is the   duty of the Bank of Thailand to ensure that the currency moves in the   same direction with other currencies in the region.

 He said the central bank is empowered to intervene in the baht movement   through various approaches. One effective way is to use the capital to   purchase foreign bonds.

 Mr Payungsak said  that FTI found various industries had already   incurred around Bt90-100 billion is losses from the continued baht   appreciation.

 Industries affected by the stronger baht most include foods, textiles   and garments, and local content-reliant production. (MCOT online news)

----------


## socal

[quote=StrontiumDog;1580289]*Continued baht rise costs some industries Bt90-100 billion already
*

*Continued baht rise costs some industries Bt90-100 billion already*


  วันศุกร์ ที่ 15 ต.ค. 2553 
 


> BANGKOK, Oct 15  The continued strengthening of Thailand's  baht  currency has incurred some Bt90-100 billion in damages to the  countrys  industrial sector, according to the Federation of Thai  Industries  (FTI).


funny they say nothing about the sectors that incurred gains.




> One effective way is to use the capital to   purchase foreign bonds.


No, The central banks of Japan and Switzerland tried that and wasted billions for nothing. The Swiss franc has since hit an all time high and the Yen hit a 15 year high after they tried the "purchase foreign bonds" idea.

----------


## StrontiumDog

*http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/loca...rate-dangerous
*
*BoT: Fixed exchange rate 'dangerous'*
Published: 15/10/2010 at 12:04 PMOnline news: Breakingnews
 The Bank of Thailand will not reintroduce a  fixed exchange rate policy  as it would be  harmful for the country’s  exchange rate system, BoT  governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said on  Friday.

 The 1997 financial crisis occurred because the then government tried to fix the exchange rate, Mr Prasarn added.

 The BoT chief was responding to suggestions by former deputy prime   minister and finance minister Virabongsa Ramangura that the central bank   should cut its policy rate and reintroduce a fixed exchange rate  to   curb the baht’s appreciation.

 “The central bank is now using a flexible exchange rate, to avoid distorting the money market mechanism,” Mr Prasarn said.

  The BoT governor said cutting the policy interest rate was a matter   for Monetary Policy Committee to decide. It would meet next Wednesday.

 The baht’s value and related issues, including the exchange rate, will be considered at the meeting.

 BoT board chairman MR Jatumongkol Sonakul said on Friday that he   personally felt the need to raise the central bank’s policy rate  had  lessened, because strengthening baht had slowed down inflation.

 “The repurchase rate cannot be immediately cut, as was called for.  Any  change in monetary policy must be done gradually, to prepare for   dealing with any possible negative impact,” he said.

 MR Jatumongkol said even though he is the BoT board chairman he has  no  authority in setting the policy rate. That authority rests with the   Monetary Policy Committee.

----------


## forreachingme

> The BOT is protecting the few very very rich and the one supremely rich in Thailand it seems like, there is no logic to what they do other than that, only market forces from outside would ever see the THB go down, that is why the BOT have 3 times the reserves that Countries of similar size need's in foreign currency, rather than using some of all that money to improve much needed infrastructure, education ect in the country (a question also raised once in the foreign correspondents club at a meeting with the BOT gov.) No they sit on it so they can use it to protect the superrich against losses on the currency, that is the lesson learned from the "crash" of the THB in the nineties. No BOT governor would "literally" survive playing the THB down, since that would mean that the superrich in Thailand would loose billions, an unthinkable scenario!, the money policy of the Government and the BOT is not what serves the country Thailand best, but what serves the superrich Thai "elite" citizens best.


^ correct tract

Superich now buy foreign currency as Thb is high...

Crash has to happen some day due to known reason ahead sometimes, super rich will buy Thai baht after crash and double the fortune, in that line me think...

----------


## tango

^Spot on. The last time the Thai baht crashed it was suspected (anecdotal-ly; for we mortals could not move huge quantities of currency, yet those in power could and likely did so) that for days and even a few weeks before, Thaksin and the hi-so plus even higher-ups moved Thai Baht offshore then brought it back when the Baht was 50+, thus doubling their fortunes. Probably the same game these days, especially given current 'health' considerations of the baht.

----------


## StrontiumDog

*Bangkok Post : Capital inflows worry Prasarn
*
*Capital inflows worry Prasarn*
Published: 16/10/2010 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: News
 Global foreign exchange cooperation is essential  to tackle the problem of excessive foreign capital inflows into  regional economies, says Prasarn Trairatvorakul, the governor of the  Bank of Thailand.

 
Bank of Thailand governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul gives his address at  the Bank of Thailand International Symposium2010onthe challenges facing  central banks in the era of ‘‘new globalisation’’, held at the Mandarin  Oriental Hotel yesterday. WISIT THAMNGERN

 Failure of negotiations to smooth currency markets might lead to a stagnant global economy, he said yesterday.

 "I am concerned," said Mr Prasarn, who took office on Oct 1.  "Thailand is not a large economy, but we are very open [to the  international market]. The saying goes that when elephants fight, the  grass is trampled."

 He said central banks in the region were discussing with each other  possible measures to curb rapid currency appreciation. Their top  concerns are that the US Federal Reserve is likely to extend its  near-zero interest rate policy for a longer period, and that it would  also buy huge amounts of government and private-sector bonds to shore up  the weak US economic recovery.

 Huge flows of foreign capital by investors seeking better returns in  emerging markets such as Thailand are seen as the main force behind  rapid currency appreciation. The baht was trading late yesterday in  Bangkok at 29.80/84 to the US dollar, unchanged from Thursday.

 The expectation of prolonged low interest rates in advanced  economies, coupled with China's refusal to allow the yuan to appreciate,  has put Asian economies under pressure from excessive fund inflows.

 Mr Prasarn was circumspect about whether the BoT planned to introduce  any new measures to curb the baht's surge. But he was adamant that it  would not operate with a specific baht target.

 "We would rather not impose extreme measures [as they may affect the overall economy]," he said.

 "The lesson from 1997 was that we cannot have all three objectives -  price stability, an open capital account and a fixed exchange-rate  regime - simultaneously. We have chosen the first two."

 The Finance Ministry last week introduced a 15% withholding tax on  capital gains from foreign bond holdings, a measure the market  considered a form of capital control. But the baht has continued to  strengthen since then.

 Economists expect the G20 forum in Seoul in November to discuss the foreign capital influx into emerging markets.

 Developing and developed economies that are members of the G20 were  likely to discuss the effects of big injections of liquidity by the US,  Europe and Japan on developing economies, said Hyun Song Shin, the  Hughes-Rogers professor of economics at Princeton University, who spoke  at the BoT forum yesterday.

 Barry Eichengreen, professor of economics at University of  California, Berkeley, said the euro and yuan may become more important  international reserve currencies sooner than expected.

----------


## socal

> ^Spot on. The last time the Thai baht crashed it was suspected (anecdotal-ly; for we mortals could not move huge quantities of currency, yet those in power could and likely did so) that for days and even a few weeks before, Thaksin and the hi-so plus even higher-ups moved Thai Baht offshore then brought it back when the Baht was 50+, thus doubling their fortunes. Probably the same game these days, especially given current 'health' considerations of the baht.


both of you are totally wrong. If the baht crashes, I will give both of you a million pounds. Its not going to crash

----------


## StrontiumDog

*http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/...winners-losers
*
*Winners, Losers*
Published: 18/10/2010 at 09:21 AMOnline news: Economics
 The baht's gain of more than 10 per cent against  the dollar this year  has led to an outcry from some businesses, chiefly  exporters who  believe the government and the Bank of Thailand are not  doing enough to  arrest the currency's rise.


 But for every outraged exporter, there is probably another business executive quietly enjoying gains from lower-cost imports.

According  to the research division of TMB Bank, a 10 per cent gain in  the baht  will cause Thai exports to fall 3.3 per cent each quarter,  while the  benefits from cheaper imports will be only short-term.

"In the  longer term, the continuous decline of exports will drag down  imports by  2.5 per cent in every quarter," TMB Analytics said. On the  upside, it  said, "concerns over inflation have been partially eased".

An  executive of a leading food exporter has warned of a crisis on a  scale  similar to what happened in 1997, when a speculative run on the  baht  touched off a crisis that dragged down most of Asia for years.

Losses  of 80-100 billion baht have been estimated so far for food  processors,  textiles and other industries that use mostly local raw  materials and  thus do not benefit from cheaper imported inputs.

"The furniture  and housewares sector, for example, has seen profit  margins decline by  52 per cent. Once the baht gains 20 per cent, the  manufacturers will  post losses," the TMB report added.

The Economic Intelligence  Center of Siam Commercial Bank says the  strong baht affects any  industries that have a higher export ratio  against imported content. For  example, smoked rubber sheet and block  producers export up to 90 per  cent of their output against almost zero  imports of raw materials. Rice  exporters are in a similar condition.

Prasit Boonchoey, president  of the Thai Farmers Association, said some  additional costs have been  passed on to farmers, yet they have not seen  the prices of imported  pesticides and fertilisers fall yet.

The strengthening baht has already trimmed rice farmers' income by about 300 baht a tonne.

"The farmers' predicament would be worse if there was no government price insurance programme," he said.

However,  conditions are not as good for farm products without such  insurance  coverage. Prices of pineapples, for example, have fallen this  year by  about one baht per kilogramme to six baht.

"We don't know whether  buying prices will fall further, as the  direction of foreign exchange  rates is unpredictable," said Nirut  Ruplek, secretary- general of the  Thai Pineapple Industry Association.

The association predicted  the export value of canned pineapples would  drop at least 10 per cent  this year from 13.9 billion baht in 2009.  However, volumes would remain  unchanged from 473,279 tonnes last year.

Chookiat Ophaswongse,  honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters  Association, said the  strong baht had prompted exporters to delay  purchases from farmers,  putting pressure on milled rice.

"Falling milled rice prices  would in turn lead millers to cut their  paddy buying prices, which would  eventually affect farmers' incomes,"  he said. "Next year will be  another year of risk. It is very hard to  predict [the prices]."

Agriculture  Minister Theera Wong- samut conceded the baht's rise might  deter  exports of farm products and result in falling farm prices unless  the  government adopts effective measures.

However, he said there had  been minimal impact on the sector so far as  the September farm price  index rose strongly by 26.7 per cent  year-on-year, and 0.41 per cent  over the previous month.

Of course, along with losers there are  winners. As a country heavily  dependent on oil imports, Thailand has  been insulated from the 5 per  cent rise in global crude prices this  year, although local pump prices  have been little changed.

Every one-baht appreciation against the dollar reduces the cost of domestic oil production by 50 satang per litre.

Even exporters can offset some losses with lower freight rates.

"Exporters  pay shipping liners and freight forwarders in Thai baht even  though  freight rates are quoted in dollars. In doing so, they are  paying less  for shipments," said Suwit Ratanachinda, president of the  Thai  International Freight Forwarders Association. "But it is not  significant  compared to their suffering from the rapidly rising  exchange rate,"

Sumate  Tanthuwanit, president of SET-listed Regional Container Lines  Plc, said  most of its expenses were in dollars as it also operates  overseas.  However, most of its services for Thai customers are also  quoted in  dollars. "Consequently, overall operations have not been  affected much  by the sharp gains in the exchange rate," he said.

Some  industries benefit due to their heavy reliance on imported content  if  they sell most of their finished products locally. They include  steel,  mining, energy, infrastructure and machinery. But executives of  these  industries are reluctant to discuss their gains at a time when  their  export-oriented peers and rivals are crying.

----------


## socal

[quote=StrontiumDog;1582530]*http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/...winners-losers
*
*Winners, Losers*Published: 18/10/2010 at 09:21 AMOnline news: EconomicsThe baht's gain of more than 10 per cent against  the dollar this year  has led to an outcry from some businesses, chiefly  exporters who  believe the government and the Bank of Thailand are not  doing enough to  arrest the currency's rise.





> But for every outraged exporter, there is probably another business executive quietly enjoying gains from lower-cost imports.


Yep. 
.


> On the  upside, it  said, "concerns over inflation have been eased.


I have been saying this this whole thread.



> An  executive of a leading food exporter has warned of a crisis on a  scale  similar to what happened in 1997, when a speculative run on the  baht  touched off a crisis that dragged down most of Asia for years.


An executive of a leading food exporter better keep exporting food because who ever it is knows fuck all nothing about macro economics.


Of course, along with losers there are  winners. As a country heavily  dependent on oil imports, Thailand has  been insulated from the 5 per  cent rise in global crude prices this  year, although local pump prices  have been little changed.

Every one-baht appreciation against the dollar reduces the cost of domestic oil production by 50 satang per litre.

----------


## Butterfly

hilarious,

----------


## Thaihome

*Tax curbs foreign trading*

Published: 26/10/2010 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: Business
Trade by foreigners in the local bond market has fallen by 70%, to an average of 2-3 billion baht a day, since the government reintroduced the 15% capital gains tax on foreigners, according to the Thai Bond Market Association.

The government imposed the measure on Oct 13 as part of its effort to slow foreign capital inflows that had been pushing up the value of the baht. The 15% withholding tax applies to interest income and capital gains on foreign investment in government and state enterprise bonds.
However, foreign investors still had outstanding portfolios worth more than 200 billion baht in Thai bonds, said Ariya Tiranaprakit, an executive vice-president of the Thai BMA.
Total bond trading including commercial bank bills of exchange is valued at 40-50 billion baht per day.
Foreign investors' desire for better returns has been reflected in a shift to one-year bonds from the three-, five- and 10-year maturities they favoured in the past, she added.
"They were holding their investments in the Thai market to see if the government may impose more capital controls," said Ms Ariya.
"The market has been so quiet since the government resumed imposing withholding tax for foreign investors. New money has not been coming in."
However, she noted that the Bank of Thailand's decision to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.75% had already been affecting bond prices in any case.
Low rates have encouraged more issues of corporate debt, which is expected to reach 250 billion baht this year, based on 200 billion recorded in the first nine months.
Government bond issues will total 500 billion baht, similar to last year.
The government hopes to soon issue its first 50-year bond to set a new market benchmark. However, the issue size would be small, at no more than 5 billion baht, she said.

----------


## Thormaturge

The Thai Baht isn't rising.

Recently the Euro has gained ground against the Baht, by about 5% in recent weeks, as has the Swiss Franc.

The US and Sterling are falling in value.  Sterling especially is destined to fall further in the near future.

----------


## chitown

I see it hitting 25 or 36 baht to the dollar and then crash to 1997 levels. I remember the 1999 prices, I was living like a king in Thailand!!  ::chitown::

----------


## forreachingme

> Originally Posted by tango
> 
> 
> ^Spot on. The last time the Thai baht crashed it was suspected (anecdotal-ly; for we mortals could not move huge quantities of currency, yet those in power could and likely did so) that for days and even a few weeks before, Thaksin and the hi-so plus even higher-ups moved Thai Baht offshore then brought it back when the Baht was 50+, thus doubling their fortunes. Probably the same game these days, especially given current 'health' considerations of the baht.
> 
> 
> both of you are totally wrong. If the baht crashes, I will give both of you a million pounds. Its not going to crash


 
I gladly accept your offer, 1 million up in the bank is welcome !

It can takes few month or few years, but it will fall !

----------


## Thormaturge

^

If you don't give him the million, may I have it please?

1997 was due to speculation against the Baht.

2010 is due to devaluation of the Dollar and Sterling.

Don't expect those two currencies, with their rotting economies, to rise any time soon.

----------


## Zampan0

> I see it hitting 25 or 36 baht to the dollar and then crash to 1997 levels. I remember the 1999 prices, I was living like a king in Thailand!!


The dollar is the one that will crash.  Thailand had a 10%+ GDP growth rate last year and was said it would have been 12%+ if not for the red-yellow trouble.  Thailand actually produces things that other countries want.  It really doesn't make a lot of difference whether the baht is pegged to the dollar or not, when the dollar does crash, Thailand's ecconomy will keep on flourishing.  Thailand is a mini dragon with very large teeth.

----------


## Thormaturge

^
Thailand also just happens to produce rice which the two most dynamic economies in the world (India and China) consume.  Then there is Indonesia next door with a massive growing Muslim polulation which eats rice too.  
 These people will all stop importing GM cars long before they stop eating rice.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by tango
> ...


a few month, a few years, a few decades, whats it going to be ? 

The only way it could crash is if the US pulls a fast one with its gold so if gold is involved, all bets are off.

----------


## socal

> I see it hitting 25 or 36 baht to the dollar and then crash to 1997 levels. I remember the 1999 prices, I was living like a king in Thailand!!


And if that happens I will give you a million pounds to spend too.

----------


## Ripley

What's the rate today? I haven't sold yet !!

----------


## DrAndy

> The saying goes that when elephants fight, the grass is trampled."





> I have been saying this this whole thread.





> hilarious





> all bets are off.


sounds like everybody is guessing, except Socal, who keeps repeating what he believes to be true




> The saying goes that when elephants fight, the grass is trampled."

----------


## Ripley

> The Thai Baht isn't rising.
> 
> Recently the Euro has gained ground against the Baht, by about 5% in recent weeks, as has the Swiss Franc.
> 
> The US and Sterling are falling in value. Sterling especially is destined to fall further in the near future.


 
 So should I buy Euros?

----------


## Thormaturge

^
nope, the Euro was simply adjusting to where it had been before the "quantative easing".

Buy an Ark - it will probably be more valuable than anything in Thailand before the weekend.

----------


## 9999

> If the baht crashes, I will give both of you a million pounds. Its not going to crash


Socal what odds would you offer and what time frame and what do you define as crash? I'm interested in a wager with the funds held in escrow.

----------


## Zampan0

> What's the rate today? I haven't sold yet !!


one usd = 29.7017 thb.

Currency Converter | OANDA

----------


## Zampan0

"So should I buy Euros?" 

lol. I would buy Thai Baht if I lived in Thailand. Swiss francs have always been a safe bet.

----------


## Zampan0

> Originally Posted by forreachingme
> 
> If the baht crashes, I will give both of you a million pounds. Its not going to crash
> 
> 
> Socal what odds would you offer and what time frame and what do you define as crash? I'm interested in a wager with the funds held in escrow.


The worldwide monetary system is going to implode and all I can say is soon. Maybe 3-4 years, maybe next month. Don't worry too much about it. Any country that can sustain (feed) itself will last through the transition. The only worry would be WWIII, but that's doubtful.

Here's a good one that will make the U.S. middle class  happy. This will happen and it will prolong ss checks. I say good. Obama Administration Plans to Seize 401(k) Retirement Accounts

----------


## Zampan0

Gold: To buy or not to buy?  Here in the U.S. I feel that brass and lead will be far more valuable.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14996.html

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by forreachingme
> 
> If the baht crashes, I will give both of you a million pounds. Its not going to crash
> 
> 
> Socal what odds would you offer and what time frame and what do you define as crash? I'm interested in a wager with the funds held in escrow.


The wager is just to get peoples head around the fact that Thailand is a Creditor nation today. SE Asia had their crisis in the late 90s. They have since learned their lesson and rebuilt. There is no comparison to Thailand in the 90s to Thailand today. Where there was deficits in the 90s are now surpluses, where there was debt in the 90s there is now equity. Its the exact opposite.

I understand that people who do not follow economics would think that the baht will crash because of Thailand's reputation but perception is not reality. Notice how the SET was rising all through the red shirt fiasco ?

The baht is not going anywhere close to to 1997 levels in the next 6 or 8 years in dollar terms. The only way it could is if there is a new reserve currency with some sort of connection to gold.

----------


## phomsanuk

October 11 - Financial times: "Thailand is introducing a tax on foreign holdings of bonds, the latest in a string of attempts by emerging economies to curb destabilising capital inflows amid fears of a global currency war. The Thai cabinet on Tuesday imposed a 15% withholding tax on capital gains and interest payments for government and state-owned company bonds, a clear signal that it would take tough measures to curb inflows of 'hot money'."  ::chitown::

----------


## Thormaturge

I've just realised that we all have got this terribly wrong.

The Dollar is backed up by something far more powerful than gold.



No problem there then...

----------


## Zampan0

"The baht is not going anywhere close to to 1997 levels in the next 6 or 8 years in dollar terms. The only way it could is if there is a new reserve currency with some sort of connection to gold."

You might want to rethink your statement. It has stopped surprising me how wise the Thai goverment can be when it comes to protecting the people, state and Royal Family. Always subtle with low key tactics that work without pissing anyone off.


http://www.jtbf.info/poli_economy/review1009_e.html

The U.S. figures are a lie. The others are probably close.
http://www.usagold.com/reference/off...-2010-june.pdf

The Top Reasons to Buy Gold Now - Precious Metals - Resource Investor

http://www.gfmag.com/tools/global-da...0-ranking.html

----------


## Thaihome

> October 11 - Financial times: "Thailand is introducing a tax on foreign holdings of bonds, the latest in a string of attempts by emerging economies to curb destabilising capital inflows amid fears of a global currency war. The Thai cabinet on Tuesday imposed a 15% withholding tax on capital gains and interest payments for government and state-owned company bonds, a clear signal that it would take tough measures to curb inflows of 'hot money'."


See post #472 from yesterday, the impact is already being felt in the bond market.

_"Trade by foreigners in the local bond market has fallen by 70%, to an average of 2-3 billion baht a day, since the government reintroduced the 15% capital gains tax on foreigners, according to the Thai Bond Market Association.
_
Didn't do much to exhange rate though.  As stayed below 29 since October 5th.

TH

----------


## Butterfly

well the exchange rate will be stable now since there is less inflow movement, if they had done that about 3 months ago, it would still be 33 and stable

as usual too late to react,

now we need to see some events for it go back to 35,

I suggest a nice red demonstration  :Razz:

----------


## socal

> "The baht is not going anywhere close to to 1997 levels in the next 6 or 8 years in dollar terms. The only way it could is if there is a new reserve currency with some sort of connection to gold."
> 
> You might want to rethink your statement. It has stopped surprising me how wise the Thai goverment can be when it comes to protecting the people, state and Royal Family. Always subtle with low key tactics that work without pissing anyone off.
> 
> 
> Thailand Review Sep. 2010
> 
> The U.S. figures are a lie. The others are probably close.
> http://www.usagold.com/reference/off...-2010-june.pdf
> ...


So do you think a weak baht is good for the state, people and royal family or where you being sarcastic  ?

I was only talking about a 1997 style crash. Of course the baht is not going to go up in a strait line, it will have small dives down. The baht is over-due for a short term correction.

----------


## socal

> well the exchange rate will be stable now since there is less inflow movement, if they had done that about 3 months ago, it would still be 33 and stable
> 
> as usual too late to react,
> 
> now we need to see some events for it go back to 35,
> 
> I suggest a nice red demonstration


They don't have as much control as you think :Smile: 

It would not surprise me to see the baht reverse back for a while, maybe even to 35. And if they have as much control as you think, why don't they just up the cap gains tax to 25% ? Then, according to you, the baht will stop rising.

Nothing goes up in a strait line.

----------


## Thormaturge

A certain amount of wishful thinking by the Americans on here.

The truth is that the US is overpaid.  In order to compete with the world US workers need to become more competitive, and the quick way to do that is to devalue the Dollar.

Precisely what Obama is doing, and he is nowhere near finished yet.

ThB 25 to the Dollar and ThB 40 to the Pound Sterling is well within sight.

----------


## socal

> A certain amount of wishful thinking by the Americans on here.
> 
> The truth is that the US is overpaid.  In order to compete with the world US workers need to become more competitive, and the quick way to do that is to devalue the Dollar.
> 
> Precisely what Obama is doing, and he is nowhere near finished yet.
> 
> ThB 25 to the Dollar and ThB 40 to the Pound Sterling is well within sight.


Its going to be one ugly transition in the US these next few years. Its not like a devalued dollar will automatically make factories and productive jobs appear. Bush should have let the financial industry go bankrupt in 2008 and rebuild from scratch. Attempting to devalue the dollar is not going to work. Productive industry is capital intensive, they are not going to have the capital to transition if the dollar is crashing. 

If it wasn't bad enough for the unemployed Americans, now the devalued dollar is going to push the price of gas and food up for them.(inflation) The price of wheat is already up something like 60% in the last 3 months price in dollars.

----------


## Butterfly

> Nothing goes up in a strait line.


no, but they can go in trends for long periods which is about the same as a straight line until it breaks and follows another trend

a bit like Gold  :Wink:

----------


## Butterfly

> The truth is that the US is overpaid. In order to compete with the world US workers need to become more competitive, and the quick way to do that is to devalue the Dollar.


Is the Obama administration trying to put an end to Globalization, and pricing out the world to make America more competitive ? it does sound like a conspiracy theory, and even though it might happen, not sure if it was intentional

the wild "Global Capitalism" since the early 90s might be coming to an end, I think Bush 2 contributed more to its end than Obama

China would be the first victim eventually,

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> Nothing goes up in a strait line.
> 
> 
> no, but they can go in trends for long periods which is about the same as a straight line until it breaks and follows another trend
> 
> a bit like Gold


or bonds.(that back the fiat dollar)

----------


## Thormaturge

> China would be the first victim eventually,



I think the US Administration has given up waiting for the Chinese to act and has decided to devalue the Dollar rather than wait for the Chinese to revalue.

----------


## Thormaturge

> If it wasn't bad enough for the unemployed Americans, now the devalued dollar is going to push the price of gas and food up for them.(inflation) The price of wheat is already up something like 60% in the last 3 months price in dollars.



Yes the US needs to reduce imports.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> If it wasn't bad enough for the unemployed Americans, now the devalued dollar is going to push the price of gas and food up for them.(inflation) The price of wheat is already up something like 60% in the last 3 months price in dollars.
> 
> 
> 
> Yes the US needs to reduce imports.


They will when they cant afford imports.

When the dollar falls, the standard of living in the US falls with it.

----------


## Thormaturge

> Originally Posted by Thormaturge
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by socal
> ...


Exactly.

The question is not whether the Dollar is heading for ThB 25, but when.

----------


## Butterfly

> Yes the US needs to reduce imports.


if they do, USD will go up again, and world commerce will collapse, with Asia on the front line

remember the 2008 crisis that happened to be American made ? how did that do for the rest of the world ?

it just followed the fall  :Razz: 

To think that a strong USD and stopping US imports will do wonders for world economic activity is beyond naive. Keep also in mind of the J-curve effect and what it means if it happens to the US

----------


## Thormaturge

^
There are huge new consumer markets evolving.  The Chinese themselves are becoming greater consumers (remember Henry Ford's concept of creating a market amongst your own employees).  Then there is India.

Maybe the world won't need to sell so much to America in future.  The Dollar can collapse and stay there so far as the rest of the world is concerned, after all China's got all the money now anyway..

----------


## Butterfly

> There are huge new consumer markets evolving. The Chinese themselves are becoming greater consumers (remember Henry Ford's concept of creating a market amongst your own employees). Then there is India.


only because this is being fueled by the US and western countries, when that stops, it will fall apart

Demand needs a "money" flow, when that flows stops, demand collapse

The US and Europe is the sugar daddy of all those little third world countries, that's the problem, they can't survive on their own

it's really no different than a twisted economic colonialism,

----------


## Butterfly

> The Dollar can collapse and stay there so far as the rest of the world is concerned, after all China's got all the money now anyway..


China is really in a strange situation. First it's difficult to measure economic activity there, it's all government propaganda and BS, so who knows what's going on exactly, we can't measure it. Then you have the "inflation" problem, that eventually will fuck them over once economic growth slows down, as long as the numbers are obscure and based on lies, it's not a problem, it's easy to manipulate.

The next big worldwide financial scandal will be Chinese, and that's going to have dramatic effect for everyone in the region and Europe.

World Commerce is one giant sex bordelle and the USA is the mamasan  :Smile:

----------


## Thormaturge

> Demand needs a "money" flow, when that flows stops, demand collapse
> 
> The US and Europe is the sugar daddy of all those little third world countries, that's the problem, they can't survive on their own



If you hadn't noticed, China has the money now.  I wouldn't call either China or India "little" and both countries have growing demand, not only for consumer goods but also for the American companies that are currently going cheap.  I think they will let you keep Chrysler and GM though.

I't been a gigantic three card trick and the USA is left without its shirt and China has all the money.

----------


## Butterfly

> If you hadn't noticed, China has the money now.


do they ? all their money is parked in US treasury, what does it mean if US treasury does collapse ? no money. So at the end their wealth is bound with American wealth. Again see what happened in 2008 when things got wrong. I am sure a lot of the bad things that happened there weren't even reported. China is nothing more than a big factory.




> I wouldn't call either China or India "little" and both


they are big in population, but small in population wealth. Concentration of wealth in those countries are absolutely obscene.




> countries have growing demand, not only for consumer goods


growing demand because of growing money supply from USD. When that stops, it all goes, it's the money supply multiplier effect.

----------


## socal

[quote=Butterfly;1589424]


> Yes the US needs to reduce imports.





> if they do, USD will go up again, and world commerce will collapse, with Asia on the front line


Just like everyone thought that house prices would keep going up, everyone now thinks the dollar will go up again. That is what bubbles are made of.



> remember the 2008 crisis that happened to be American made ? how did that do for the rest of the world ?


The run to the dollar in 2008 was obviously a head-fake. It had no long term momentum.  It set no new long term trends. If you held onto all of your Asian stock positions through 08, you lost nothing.




> To think that a strong USD and stopping US imports will do wonders for world economic activity is beyond naive. Keep also in mind of the J-curve effect and what it means if it happens to the US


As the US dollar falls, other currencies rise. As an Asian currency rises, an asian person now has more discretionary income to spend because he is paying less for commodities. The Americans loss was the Asians gain. Now the Asian can go buy an iphone and and SUV rather then the American. 

Nobody is going to stop the US from importing. Their imports will slow down as their ability to pay for them slows down.

----------


## Butterfly

> I't been a gigantic three card trick and the USA is left without its shirt and China has all the money.


but you are missing the point, globalization has "correlated" everything and everyone. The Chinese are fucked as much as the American. 

There is also a good reason for them to keep US treasury. They can't find a better deal internally. They can't develop their infra or "improve" their population lifestyle because the money will not be used efficiently. It would create more disruption and inflation than there is already, so US treasury is the perfect "savings" account, even it pays negative interest rates, it's better than losing 20% of your real GDP to inflation.

the more likely inflation you have, the better you have to keep your "savings" in a currency that is not exposed as much to inflation (USD).

----------


## socal

[quote=Butterfly;1589482]


> If you hadn't noticed, China has the money now.





> do they ? all their money is parked in US treasury, what does it mean if US treasury does collapse ? no money. So at the end their wealth is bound with American wealth. Again see what happened in 2008 when things got wrong. I am sure a lot of the bad things that happened there weren't even reported. China is nothing more than a big factory.


If US treasuries collapse, that would be hyperinflation for the US. That is what hyperinflation is. Also, the US was one big factory after WW2, that is how the US got so rich. China destroyed the US industrial and manufacturing industry without dropping one bomb.

----------


## Butterfly

> that would be hyperinflation for the US. That is what hyperinflation is


 :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic): 

you need to look up that definition again and see how hyperinflation comes to be

Macro Econ 101

----------


## Thormaturge

.....a currency that is not exposed as much to inflation (USD) (GBP) (EUR) (CHF) or even gold

----------


## Butterfly

yes, Gold is a natural hedge against inflation

however when it becomes inflated as it is these days, it loses that inflation hedge and becomes a speculative instrument, creating greater risk rather hedging against it

when you are in risk management, no doubt China is knee deep in that, you focus on assets that provide the best risk/reward ratio

----------


## Zampan0

"Thormaturge;1589129]I've just realised that we all have got this terribly wrong.

The Dollar is backed up by something far more powerful than gold."

You are correct.

Military Power - Not Gold or the USD or the Renminbi - is the Real Coin of the Global Realm - Attila the Wimp -- Seeking Alpha

----------


## Rural Surin

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> If it wasn't bad enough for the unemployed Americans, now the devalued dollar is going to push the price of gas and food up for them.(inflation) The price of wheat is already up something like 60% in the last 3 months price in dollars.
> 
> 
> 
> Yes the US needs to reduce imports.


Huh! Good luck with that suggestion. As the bloody American economy and their illusional existence is purely on mindless consumption, the consciousness of living beyond ones means, and credit. Who might be producing all the goodies that Yanks yearn for....?? Themselves? I think not. The U.S. long put themselves into the corner that there is no way out.

----------


## Thormaturge

^
When the cost of a lump of rubber immitation dog excrement costs a month's salary the party may well come to an end.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> that would be hyperinflation for the US. That is what hyperinflation is
> 
> 
> 
> 
> you need to look up that definition again and see how hyperinflation comes to be
> 
> Macro Econ 101


I cant believe you have the gall to still try and "smart ass" me on this topic. Let me explain to you how hyperinflation could come about in the US....

To use their own words,the dollar is backed by the full faith and CREDIT of the US government. Treasuries are US debt, treasuires back the dollar. If treasuries collapse, there is no CREDIT left in the US dollar. The dollar would go back to its intrinsic value, which is zero.

Hyperinflation is more understandable if you think of it as hyper-devaluation. The devaluation comes first. Prices nominally go up but that is only a reflection of the currency going down.

----------


## socal

> yes, Gold is a natural hedge against inflation
> 
> however when it becomes inflated as it is these days, it loses that inflation hedge and becomes a speculative instrument, creating greater risk rather hedging against it
> 
> when you are in risk management, no doubt China is knee deep in that, you focus on assets that provide the best risk/reward ratio


haha, 

Golds $800 high in 1981, adjusted for inflation is $2200. 

And the only reason gold fell from that point in the 80s was because interest rates where jacked up to 20%. So with gold prices half of what they where in the 80s and interest rates at 0%, we can conclude that the big rise in gold is in front of us, not behind us.

----------


## socal

> "Thormaturge;1589129]I've just realised that we all have got this terribly wrong.
> 
> The Dollar is backed up by something far more powerful than gold."
> 
> You are correct.
> 
> Military Power - Not Gold or the USD or the Renminbi - is the Real Coin of the Global Realm - Attila the Wimp -- Seeking Alpha


Thats what everyone thought about the Soviet Union too, also Britain in its heyday. Britain even lost reserve currency status.

----------


## Butterfly

> To use their own words,the dollar is backed by the full faith and CREDIT of the US government. Treasuries are US debt, treasuires back the dollar. If treasuries collapse, there is no CREDIT left in the US dollar. The dollar would go back to its intrinsic value, which is zero.
> 
> Hyperinflation is more understandable if you think of it as hyper-devaluation. The devaluation comes first. Prices nominally go up but that is only a reflection of the currency going down.


 :rofl: 

like I said, you need to study Macro Econ 101 about what drives hyper-inflation  :Smile:

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> To use their own words,the dollar is backed by the full faith and CREDIT of the US government. Treasuries are US debt, treasuires back the dollar. If treasuries collapse, there is no CREDIT left in the US dollar. The dollar would go back to its intrinsic value, which is zero.
> 
> Hyperinflation is more understandable if you think of it as hyper-devaluation. The devaluation comes first. Prices nominally go up but that is only a reflection of the currency going down.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> like I said, you need to study Macro Econ 101 about what drives hyper-inflation


Im glad you have no explanation because I already know it is wrong.

----------


## Thormaturge

One looming question for Thailand in the coming months is the effect of these floods on the rice harvest.

The government has been selling stocks in readiness for the new harvest.  If the harvest is poor this country will not be selling rice for some time while it replenishes the stocks.

----------


## Zampan0

> Originally Posted by Zampan0
> 
> 
> "Thormaturge;1589129]I've just realised that we all have got this terribly wrong.
> 
> The Dollar is backed up by something far more powerful than gold."
> 
> You are correct .
> 
> ...


You are correct again, you should read the article.

Her's another interesting aritcle. 

"On this note, sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) from around the world are buying up American infrastructure. Sovereign wealth funds are state-owned investment funds of stocks, bonds, financial assets, resources and property. Some of the world’s largest SWFs are those of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Norway, China, South Korea, Kuwait, and Russia. As the “recovery” edges into the oblivion of the Great Global Debt Depression, SWFs are buying up American infrastructure, including:

A toll highway in Indiana. The Chicago Skyway. A stretch of highway in Florida. Parking meters in Nashville, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, and other cities. A port in Virginia. And a whole bevy of Californian public infrastructure projects, all either already leased or set to be leased for fifty or seventy-five years or more in exchange for one-off lump sum payments of a few billion bucks at best, usually just to help patch a hole or two in a single budget year.

America is quite literally for sale, at rock-bottom prices, and the buyers increasingly are the very people who scored big in the oil bubble. Thanks to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and the other investment banks that artificially jacked up the price of gasoline over the course of the last decade, Americans delivered a lot of their excess cash into the coffers of sovereign wealth funds like the Qatar Investment Authority, the Libyan Investment Authority, Saudi Arabia's SAMA Foreign Holdings, and the UAE's Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.
“Crisis is an Opportunity”: Engineering a Global Depression to Create a Global Government

----------


## Zampan0

Here is what you will see in 3-4 years.  Do you really think the Lord Humugus' of the world will want your gold?  lol.  They will want your women, your juice (gas), and your pain.




Personally I not waiting for Max to save me.  I am going to join up with Humungus' crew.

----------


## drawp

I guess to get back on track, I'll chime in with some non-gold news... we're almost back at 1 usd = 30thb

----------


## Butterfly

> Originally Posted by Butterfly
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by socal
> ...


I think the explanation would be lost on you  :Smile:

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by Butterfly
> ...


With the little unintelligent overly simplistic knowledge that you get from CNBS or Bloomberg, I can take a stab at where you think it comes from.

You probably think it is as simple as new money being printed and put into circulation which devalues the existing pool of cash. Print enough and boom, you have hyperinflation. :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

----------


## Butterfly

would that be Demand pull or Supply pull hyper-inflation ?  ::chitown::

----------


## socal

> would that be Demand pull or Supply pull hyper-inflation ?


there is no such thing as demand pull hyperinflation and calling the other one "supply pull " is not correct.

----------


## Butterfly

> there is no such thing as demand pull hyperinflation


nice of you to rewrite the entire economics curriculum  :rofl: 




> calling the other one "supply pull " is not correct.


ok should have said supply shock instead, couldn't find the word

----------


## Ripley

Wednesday it was at 28. 7 to   buy, BUT   over 30 to sell  - at Kasikorn.
 how  do they get away with  that?
 BASTARDS

----------


## Thaihome

> Wednesday it was at 28. 7 to buy, BUT over 30 to sell - at Kasikorn.
> how do they get away with that?
> BASTARDS


Forex Spread | OANDA Forex Consulting
*Whats a Spread?*

The spread is the difference between the bid price (the price you sell at) and the ask price (the price you buy at), quoted in pips. (A pip is 1/100 of one percent.) For example, if the quote between EUR/USD at a given moment is 1.4222/1.4223 (sell vs. buy, sometimes expressed as 1.4222/223), then the spread is 1 pip. If the quote is 1.4222/1.4242, then the spread is 20 pips. 

The spread is also how banks and brokers make money. Wider spreads mean a higher ask price and a lower bid price. As a consequence, you pay more when you buy and get less when you sell, making it more expensive for you. The difficulty lies in knowing whether a wider spread is based on market conditions (that is, when there is less market liquidity during critical news events or non-trading hours), or if its simply based on extra profit for the bank or broker.

Banks and forex brokers typically dont earn the full spread because they, in turn, must hedge out net client foreign currency exposure with other banks, which costs them the spread as well. The spread compensates forex brokers for taking on the risk that the price might change from the time they execute a clients trade to the time they safely hedge their net exposure with a bank.

Banks make money by creating trading volume that results in natural trading offsets (situations where the banks are earning the full amount of the spread). Banks also make money by increasing the spread charged in excess of the interbank spread for forex trading

----------


## Thaihome

*Capital controls becoming the new normal*

Published: 29/10/2010 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: Business
We are indeed living in a volatile world - unexpected weather, unpredictable capital flows and an uncertain economic outlook. It's hard to tell what will happen next. The best we can do is to accept the change, make the most out of it and move on.

Over the last few weeks we have witnessed many new capital flow regulations, as countries across the world intensify the efforts to restrain the appreciation of their currencies against the US dollar. Brazil just stepped up the capital controls it first put in place in October 2009 by doubling inflow taxes on foreign investors on investment in domestic bonds (from 2% to 4%). The tax on foreign equity investment is maintained at 2%, while foreign direct investment is still not taxed.

Thailand has also introduced a 15% withholding tax on capital gains and interest payments on foreign holdings of government and state-owned company bonds. South Korea and Indonesia, whose capital controls were implemented in June 2010, plan to introduce further measures to curb capital inflows. The policy measures announced by South Korea and Indonesia are of great significance because both countries are Asian members of the G20 and South Korea chairs the G20 meeting this year.

It seems that capital controls have become the new normal. This has happened just in time, as low interest rates in developed countries have fuelled the boom in emerging markets. Capital is rapidly leaving for those countries offering better rates of return. Since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke signalled that additional monetary stimulus may be warranted to boost the US economy, the subsequent depreciation of the dollar has caused a huge flow of hot money into emerging markets.

The rapid pace of international capital inflows into these countries has caused currencies to appreciate sharply, threatening export performance and raising concerns about asset bubbles. The Korean won, for example, has risen 3% this year while the Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht are up 9% and 10% respectively. Apart from pushing up the value of local currency, cross-border capital flows tend to be "pro-cyclical" - too much money comes in during an economic upturn, and too much money goes out during a downturn. Capital controls can, therefore, play an important role in helping maintain financial stability by smoothing the inflows and outflows of capital. Most controls target short-term highly speculative capital flows rather than longer-term investment.
For decades, the IMF and the US had been the main advocates for the free flow of money across countries without any restrictions. The traditional argument against capital controls has been that they could not be effective because financial markets are always smarter than the policymakers. The argument for capital controls is that even if this is true, evading the controls means incurring additional costs to move capital in and out of a country, which is exactly what the controls aim to achieve. After years of being an enthusiastic supporter of capital liberalisation, the IMF recently acknowledged that capital controls may have their place as a policy tool, as developing countries with capital controls appear to be less affected by the global financial crisis.
In its global financial stability report published this month, the IMF is increasingly ready to admit that as a last resort capital controls may be desirable. A recent IMF study also finds that capital controls helped prevent some of the worst effects of the financial crisis in several emerging markets, such as Brazil, Colombia, China, India and Thailand. The post-crisis economic soundness of the countries that imposed capital controls has cleared the bad perception associated with such a policy.

For now, an agreement has been reached among finance ministers and central bankers at the G20 meeting to refrain from competitive devaluation to increase economic growth. It remains to be seen how the G20 leaders will take up the issue of capital controls by its member countries at the Seoul summit next month.

Despite gaining acceptance, capital controls are a double-edged sword. They help governments retain control over their exchange rates and domestic policies but at the same time they bring into question a country's commitment to free markets.

Although it would seem that imposition of capital controls is inevitable, we should not view these controls as a panacea for all the ills of the global financial system. At the end of the day, there is nothing the governments of emerging markets can do to fight against the record low interest rates in developed economies. As strong capital inflows are likely to persist in the future, the real challenge going forward is about how to channel such inflows into the most productive use, and not about fighting the impossible currency war.


*Dr Tientip Subhanij holds a PhD in economics from the University of Cambridge, and currently has a career in banking as well as academia. She can be reached at tien201[at]yahoo.com
*

----------


## ssidewineder

With the large foreign cash inflow investments in Thai bonds there have been reports that asset bubbles are being created in Thailand.  Can anyone speculate
on a possible scenario that would burst this bubble and cause a large Thai baht
devaluation ?

----------


## socal

> With the large foreign cash inflow investments in Thai bonds there have been reports that asset bubbles are being created in Thailand.  Can anyone speculate
> on a possible scenario that would burst this bubble and cause a large Thai baht
> devaluation ?


There is no bubble to burst in Thailand. The bubble is in the US and the Chinese know it. That is why the Chinese are investing allot of their US dollar positions in Thailand. 

The term "bubble" in the context we use it today did not exist 20 years ago. The fact that it is a mainstream term now is just a symptom of the problem. Fiat currency (particularly the USD ) has lost its ability to produce non price inflationary gains.

----------


## Thaihome

Here's the 90 day trend through yesterday from Oanda

----------


## phomsanuk

The 10-per-cent appreciation of the Thai baht this year could cut Thailand's gross domestic producct (GDP) growth by 0.7 to 1 per cent, Naris Chaiyasoot, director-general of the Finance Ministry's Fiscal Policy Office said

----------


## Norton

> The 10-per-cent appreciation of the Thai baht this year could cut Thailand's gross domestic producct (GDP) growth by 0.7 to 1 per cen


It's cut Norton's GDP by 10%. Throw in 3.5% Thai inflation rate and all in all 2010 not a good year. :Sad:

----------


## beppi

A strong Baht inconveniences
- Foreign investors in Thailand
   But since it currently comes with economic growth, their motivation to invest still persists, so no big deal here.
- Local producers who export their goods
   Exports have (to my knowledge) not decreased, so no big deal here, too.
- Foreigners who think they can have a good life here with meagre Western pensions or other income from abroad
   They are the ones mostly complaining (not only on this forum), but are hardly worth considering for the economy as a whole. They also don't seem to understand that the Baht fluctuates with supply and demand, and that by converting their (US$ or EUR) income they contribute (slightly) to the strong Baht (but not to the Thai economy, since they don't generate any value here).

The Baht value doesn't matter much for people who earn and spend here. If anything the lower cost for imported goods reduces inflation.

A strong Baht is good for people who earn in Thailand (e.g. by having invested earlier, or by working here) and transfer their gains abroad. Since Thailand needs more such people, I think a raising Baht is good for the country - whatever the non-working foreigners on this (and other) forums say!

----------


## larvidchr

> Originally Posted by phomsanuk
> 
> The 10-per-cent appreciation of the Thai baht this year could cut Thailand's gross domestic producct (GDP) growth by 0.7 to 1 per cen
> 
> 
> It's cut Norton's GDP by 10%. Throw in 3.5% Thai inflation rate and all in all 2010 not a good year.


Ditto, not the best of years money exchange wise  :Sad:  about 10% down on last year even including a 10% rise in the larvidchr GDP, on a positive note that is only half as bad as it could have been :Wink:  :Smile:  thankfully life is not just about the present exchange rate so still  :bananaman:   :Smile:

----------


## larvidchr

> A strong Baht inconveniences
> - Foreign investors in Thailand
>    But since it currently comes with economic growth, their motivation to invest still persists, so no big deal here.
> - Local producers who export their goods
>    Exports have (to my knowledge) not decreased, so no big deal here, too.
> - Foreigners who think they can have a good life here with meagre Western pensions or other income from abroad
>    They are the ones mostly complaining (not only on this forum), but are hardly worth considering for the economy as a whole. They also don't seem to understand that the Baht fluctuates with supply and demand, and that by converting their (US$ or EUR) income they contribute (slightly) to the strong Baht (but not to the Thai economy, since they don't generate any value here).
> 
> The Baht value doesn't matter much for people who earn and spend here. If anything the lower cost for imported goods reduces inflation.
> ...


Everything is relative, but i figure most in Country living expats generate jobs/living for 2-3 Thais on average as a minimum, so thats about 150.000 thousand jobs up, hardly insignificant without being very important either, but it is a part of the whole.

Thai exporters have continuously complained to the government about the high Baht, latest very recently, so presumably they do experience a decline in business whether it is actual decline, or a decline in what might have been. Tourism is down, partly because of domestic unrest, but also because of the World economic crisis, and foreigners having a smaller budget set aside for travels, coupled with a high exchange rate money have been lost this year.

Looking ahead thailand have benefited from the low exchange rate, infrastructure problems, quality problems and corruption problems, have so far not had a significant negative impact on influx of foreign investment and business, but the moment Thailand comes closer to the cost level of other countries, those shortcomings will have a negative effect, in so far as foreign investors and producers will look elsewhere where those mentioned problems are far less pronounced.

So a continuos rising Baht will reach a breaking point, and that might not be all that far away.

----------


## socal

> Originally Posted by beppi
> 
> 
> A strong Baht inconveniences
> - Foreign investors in Thailand
>    But since it currently comes with economic growth, their motivation to invest still persists, so no big deal here.
> - Local producers who export their goods
>    Exports have (to my knowledge) not decreased, so no big deal here, too.
> - Foreigners who think they can have a good life here with meagre Western pensions or other income from abroad
> ...


Most western currencies are in the same spot the baht was in 1996. What you are seeing is downward pressure on fundamentally horrible western currencies, not necessarily upward pressure on the baht.

----------


## ssidewineder

Question for those knowlegable in economics here: 

If Al Gore had been rightly elected president in 2000 would the U.S. dollar 
be alot stonger now ?
In 2000 it was 44 baht/$ . Bush had two wars while cutting taxes, and then that hack greenspan created in part the financial crisis/ housing bubble by lowering interest rates drastically. 
It doesnt seem like the above would have happened with a Gore president.

----------


## Norton

> It doesnt seem like the above would have happened with a Gore president.


JC himself could have been elected and the global economic crash would still have happened with Asian countries being the least affected and the first to recover.

----------


## Mid

whilst America continues to devalue their currency most other currencies will have an upward trend whether the like it or not and there is scant they can do about it .

----------


## Roger Ramjet

An interesting point of view from Australian Mining News Net today.......For all those currency supporters and all those "gold Bugs"!....So maybe hanging on to those Thai Baht is the go!...and producing more!......I wonder how much gold dust  a visitor to Pattaya will need in the future for a "good time"???
 :Smile: 

Tania Winter
Friday, 29 October 2010


*ONE of the worlds foremost financial forecasters and self-proclaimed gold bug James Dines has tipped the price of the precious metal will reach $US3000-5000 an ounce, while rare earth metals are heading towards a supermajor bull market.*

The keynote speaker at the Mining 2010 Resources Convention in Brisbane, Dines gave a 
compelling talk to conclude the three-day gabfest, warning delegates that the mother of all bubbles was approaching thanks to governments around the world printing whatever amount of money they deem necessary without linking it to gold.

Yet the [masses think] the system is normal and acceptable and the Washington economic establishment insists it does not need a link to gold, he said.

Dines also believed uraniums supermajor uptrend had resumed and was showing no signs of slowing down given Chinas forecasts that it would build two new uranium plants every week by 2020.

Warnings of an impending currency catastrophe have been documented in the form of currency plunges such as in 1994 in Mexico, 1996-97 in Asia, 1998 in Russia, 1999-2002 in Argentina, Brazil and Turkey, in 2000 with Zimbabwe and Ecuador, in 2004-07 the Japanese Yen, in 2008-09 the Australian dollar, sterling pound and New Zealand dollar, in 2009 North Korea, and this year Greece, Latvia, Romania, Hungary and Portugal.

Look at these warning systems, these are all currency plunges and every year there is another one, Dines stressed.

The currency tremors are warning of a coming currency catastrophe as the US dollar is speeding towards a brick wall at rising velocities and the unprepared might end up needing a diaper change.

When this invisible bubble finally bursts in a volcanic climax, the American delusion that government spending is good, that over-buying is wonderful and that going deeper into debt will bring prosperity, that you can spend your way out of debt is a form of insanity.

It will come crashing down on our heads and not everybody will survive financially in what I call the coming second great depression after this current bull market ends.

Americans were taking second mortgages on their homes, egged on by Washingtons politicians who urged everyone to own at least one home on cheap credit, borrowing heavily on those homes to buy cheap trinkets from Wal-Mart which were made from China while it quietly amassed a fortune.

That would have been impossible for them to have accumulated had there been a link to gold and the dollar.

America would have run out of gold and have been forced to demand that China buy in equivalent from America to keep jobs in the US instead of the delusionary idea of creating jobs.

But the US gets deeper and deeper into debt, another bubble, until China finally now has $2.65 trillion in its war chest.

If you spent $1 million a day since Jesus was born you could not spend $1 trillion and Chinas war chest is still growing.

He said the US was gleefully adding new debt at the rate of $US1.4 trillion this year.

This is tipped to grow to $9 trillion by this decade and $20 trillion by 2020.

If you think they are going to pay that debt back, with what, the manufacturing capacity that has moved to Asia? he quipped.

His advice was to anticipate closing borders to financial transfers.

You need to prepare by keeping your assets in more than one country, he said.

China has been dumping the dollar because it foresees the US crash and is buying gold, although not silver yet, so you still have a chance to get in ahead of them, and has been buying up currencies and the debts of its neighbours to control them.

It also buys the yen to push it up, making Japan less able to compete and a weaker US ally, so there is also a geopolitical element here.

----------


## Butterfly

higher oil prices and raw material will eventually "shift" the production supply curve, and that's a demand killer !!! 

we could see another 2008 again,

----------


## socal

> Question for those knowlegable in economics here: 
> 
> If Al Gore had been rightly elected president in 2000 would the U.S. dollar 
> be alot stonger now ?
> In 2000 it was 44 baht/$ . Bush had two wars while cutting taxes, and then that hack greenspan created in part the financial crisis/ housing bubble by lowering interest rates drastically. 
> It doesnt seem like the above would have happened with a Gore president.


I doubt it. Gore would have done what Obama is doing now. Bushes deficits where around 400 billion, Obamas are around 1.5 trillion.

They both appointed the same federal reserve chairman too.

----------


## socal

> higher oil prices and raw material will eventually "shift" the production supply curve, and that's a demand killer !!! 
> 
> we could see another 2008 again,


 :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic): 

When the Euro fell from 1.50 to 1.19, just because oil got more expensive for people earning Euro's, doesn't mean there was a sudden "demand" for oil in Europe.

When the Thai baht fell in 1997 and oil got incrementally more expensive, I hate to break it to you but there was not a sudden "demand" for oil in that case either.

----------


## Butterfly

> When the Euro fell from 1.50 to 1.19, just because oil got more expensive for people earning Euro's, doesn't mean there was a sudden "demand" for oil in Europe.
> 
> When the Thai baht fell in 1997 and oil got incrementally more expensive, I hate to break it to you but there was not a sudden "demand" for oil in that case either.


I think once more, you failed to understand what I meant  :Smile: 

"demand killer" means that demand is killed, not that demand will shift or increase

I suggest you learn how to read first and then you will probably understand all those important concepts in those economics books, it will help to detect the BS in those blogs you have been reading  :Razz:

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## socal

[quote=Butterfly;1593270]


> When the Euro fell from 1.50 to 1.19, just because oil got more expensive for people earning Euro's, doesn't mean there was a sudden "demand" for oil in Europe.
> 
> When the Thai baht fell in 1997 and oil got incrementally more expensive, I hate to break it to you but there was not a sudden "demand" for oil in that case either.





> I think once more, you failed to understand what I meant


what you meant made no sense, I was trying to make you aware of that but the blind and stubborn are hard learners.




> "demand killer" means that demand is killed, not that demand will shift or increase


Why should I bother..... whatever, here we go.

Lets say the demand for oil stays stagnant but you increase the stock of currency you are pricing it in or the value of the currency  falls. Did the demand have anything to do with the price movement ? No.





> suggest you learn how to read first and then you will probably understand all those important concepts in those economics books, it will help to detect the BS in those blogs you have been reading


No wonder you are blind, you are probably reading keynes text books that are loaded with garbage that makes no sense.

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## phomsanuk

*Most Viewed*

 *Kasikornbank sees baht at 25 in two years*


 		The Kasikornbank research unit forecasts the Thai baht will reach  28 baht per US dollar next year and keep rising to hit 25 baht within  two years.

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## keda

I wouldn't wait for it to rip through 32 then. What do you think, buttfrier?

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## Seekingasylum

> *Most Viewed*
> 
>  *Kasikornbank sees baht at 25 in two years*
> 
> 
>         The Kasikornbank research unit forecasts the Thai baht will reach 28 baht per US dollar next year and keep rising to hit 25 baht within two years.


Oh dear, the Thai had better get ready for a domestic boost for their economy because foreign demand will simply wither away. 
Perhaps their banks will lend more and offer significant saving rates to boot?

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## Butterfly

is the US trying to slow world growth by outpricing SE Asia and repatriate that growth back home ? quite possible,

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## socal

> is the US trying to slow world growth by outpricing SE Asia and repatriate that growth back home ? quite possible,


Yeah, its called keynesian economics. Productive industry doesn't just appear out of thin air as the dollar devalues(inflation) Higher gas prices, higher food prices and more expensive foreign currency prices do though.

Enjoy getting poorer and enjoy losing money on your $100,000 invested in treasuries

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## Butterfly

classic  :rofl:

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## mikediver

> A strong Baht inconveniences
> - Foreign investors in Thailand
> But since it currently comes with economic growth, their motivation to invest still persists, so no big deal here.
> - Local producers who export their goods
> Exports have (to my knowledge) not decreased, so no big deal here, too.
> - Foreigners who think they can have a good life here with meagre Western pensions or other income from abroad
> They are the ones mostly complaining (not only on this forum), but are hardly worth considering for the economy as a whole. They also don't seem to understand that the Baht fluctuates with supply and demand, and that by converting their (US$ or EUR) income they contribute (slightly) to the strong Baht (but not to the Thai economy, since they don't generate any value here).
> 
> The Baht value doesn't matter much for people who earn and spend here. If anything the lower cost for imported goods reduces inflation.
> ...


 
I wonder if the producers are reporting no drop in exports based on the dollar value. If so as the Baht appreciates against the dollar and export dollar value remains the same then units shipped is going down. Less production going overseas means less jobs in Thailand (eventually) even if the exporting company is still making the same gross revenue. 

Countriess all over the world (think China) have been compensating for their weak domestic demand by exporting to the US for years thus avoiding unemployment at home. This is why countries like China try to artificially keep their currencies at low value compared to the dollar. This is not sustainable. 

Do you think an unemployed American is happy to see a strong dollar? I think he would rather have more expensive imports and a job so he/she can support his/her family and be able to pay the mortgage.

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## StrontiumDog

*http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home...-30141614.html
*
*Baht ends at 13-yr high*

                                      The baht currency closed at a  13-year high, up 0.2 per  cent at Bt29.63 per U.S.on Friday after the  Federal Reserve's decision  to inject more U.S. dollars into the  financial system raise demand for  higher-yielding, emerging-markets'  assets.

 Asian countries may work together to curb excessive speculation in their currencies,Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said.

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## Lancelot

[quote=mikediver;1596195]


> Countriess all over the world (think China) have been compensating for their weak domestic demand by exporting to the US for years thus avoiding unemployment at home. This is why countries like China try to artificially keep their currencies at low value compared to the dollar. This is not sustainable. 
> 
> Do you think an unemployed American is happy to see a strong dollar? I think he would rather have more expensive imports and a job so he/she can support his/her family and be able to pay the mortgage.


I hear what you are saying but I don't believe the exchange rate is the entire problem.

During 2001 I went to China and the exchange rate was around 8.2 yuan/$USD. Now its 6 something anad our (US) trade imbalance is greater than ever. Some mfg went abroad (China) to escape a punishing business environment, such as The Americans with Disabilities legislation.

With respect to a strong dollar, the US unemployed ill take it on the chin no matter what. A weak dollar means higher gasoline prices and more expensive electronics. Anything imported will be more expensive, even if the end consumer does not see the actual currency exchange-its still there...

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## phomsanuk

The baht currency closed at a 13-year high, up 0.2 per cent at Bt29.63 per U.S.on Friday after the Federal Reserve's decision to inject more U.S. dollars into the financial system raise demand for higher-yielding, emerging-markets' assets.
Asian countries may work together to curb excessive speculation in their currencies,Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said   ::chitown::

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## StrontiumDog

*http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/o...nd-a-hard-baht
*
*Caught between a rock and a hard baht*
Published:  9/11/2010 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: News
 Thailand is experiencing a flood of inflows. Not just of water, but of funds.

 As a result of these inflows, the baht has appreciated by over 12%   thus far this year. We usually try to comfort ourselves with the thought   that our appreciation is "in line" with the region. But in this case,   we have appreciated more than everyone else, except the Japanese. South   Korea and Taiwan have appreciated by about 5%.

 What to do? There are no easy options.

 Each option has its drawbacks. We are caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place.

 Doing nothing is not a good option.

 Thailand remains an economy highly dependent on exports.

 Firms hit hardest by a stronger baht are those that export a lot, but   import little. They are the ones that will see their export revenue in   baht drop, while failing to get much benefit from lower import costs.

 These include sectors that employ a lot of labour and local content,  e.g. rice, rubber, sugar, garments, footwear, and the like.

 Unfortunately, firms in these sectors also tend to be smaller and  less  likely to hedge their foreign exchange risk for reasons of access  or  pricing.

 What the Bank of Thailand does to try to limit the pace of appreciation is to intervene and buy up the incoming dollars.

 That they have been doing this with gusto is evidenced by the very   rapid increase in their foreign exchange reserves. In the last three   months alone, reserves (including forwards) have increased by over US$21   billion.

 By comparison, they increased by about 8 billion during the entire first seven months of the year.

 But the rapid appreciation of the baht indicates that the intervention has not really worked all that well.

 Which takes us to other options, such as capital controls or taxes.

 The track record of such measures has been mixed at best. These can   range from the very light (like the recent 15% withholding tax on bond   yields) to the hugely draconian (like the 30% URR or unremunerated   reserve requirement implemented in 2006). The former unsurprisingly has   had little impact. Thai bonds are yielding about 2%. At 15%  withholding,  that means just 0.3% in yield foregone, compared to a  foreign exchange  gain from baht appreciation of nearly 8% in the last  three months alone.

 The 30% URR measure had the dubious distinction of causing the SET index to fall a record 15% in just one day.

 South Korea, Indonesia, and Taiwan have all put on measures, but have   not markedly slowed down the appreciation of their currencies.

 The one exception might be Brazil, which charges a hefty 6% tax on   bond investments. But such moves have big, long-term implications for   the attractiveness of our stock and bond markets. It seems odd for our   officials to go on international roadshows promoting our stock and bond   markets to investors, and then slapping on taxes and controls when they   do invest.

 There have been calls for more extreme options like pegging the baht   at some fixed rate to the dollar. This is a non-starter. If we peg the   baht to the US dollar _ and still allow funds to flow in and out of the   country _ Thai interest rates must converge to US interest rates for   macroeconomic stability.

 This is not just theory. Hong Kong pegs its currency to the US  dollar.  Interest rates in Hong Kong are only 0.25%, pretty much the same  as in  the US. Such low, near-zero interest rates are hardly appropriate  for  Thailand and would be a sure-fire recipe for asset bubbles.

 What if we instead pegged to the dollar but kept our interest rates   high? Funds would then keep on flowing in because they can earn a higher   interest rate here with no exchange rate risk. This should sound   familiar. It is essentially what happened here in the years preceding   the 1997 crisis, and we all know how well that turned out.

 The short but unfortunate conclusion is that there is no easy   quick-fix. If there were, someone somewhere would have implemented it   already.

 This is really a global problem that requires a coordinated, global   solution. South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan had it right   when he said, "You have a burst pipe behind the wall, and the water is   coming out. You have to fix the pipe, not just patch the wall."

 The recent announcement by the US Federal Reserve to pump another  $600  billion into the system means even more water will be coming out of   the burst pipe. Any wall patching is not likely to stop the inflows.
 But if we cannot stop the inflows, we can at least help with the outflows.

 Boosting investment _ e.g. through big ticket infrastructure spending  _  would help outflows by increasing imports of capital goods and   reducing our current account surplus. It would do much to improve   productivity. It is a win-win solution, but not a quick one. Which   probably means it won't happen.

 The analogy with the floods wracking the country is both telling and   sobering. We know it rains a lot. We know we can't stop the rain. All we   can do is help the outflows. But somehow we never get around to   building really effective drainage and flood control. We might have to   learn to live with both a stronger baht and getting wet.


*  The writer is with the SCB Economic Intelligence Centre. The views   expressed here are his own and not necessarily those of SCB or its   affiliates. He can be reached at:
sethaput.suthiwartnarueput[at]scb.co.th*

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## socal

*Gold Trades North Of $1,420 After China's PBOC Advisor Li Says "Absurd" Dollar Is Reserve Currency*

The baht is going higher.

Precious metals have now entered their parabolic phase. The latest catalyst for gold having traded north of $1,420 is not only the ongoing collapse of Europe via surging spreads and accelerating ECB bond monetization, which in tried and true bizarro fashion have lead to a more than 100 pip move higher in the EURUSD, but the latest speech by PBOC academic advisor Li Daokui, who said that it is "absurd" that the dollar is still the reserve currency of the world. We are confident that pretty much everyone in China agrees. The likelihood that China is about to do something big in FX land was also confirmed by the biggest move higher in the CNY which rose by 0.51%, the most since the revaluation period, and also by the high yield in the one week auction, which has led some to believe that China may be willing to hike rates once again, and further weaken the dollar peg.
From BLoomberg:
Li Daokui, an academic adviser to Chinas central bank, said it could be seen as absurd that the dollar remains a reserve currency after the financial crisis.

To a visitor from outer space, it would seem absurd that the dollar holds that role, given problems in U.S. financial regulation and the countrys economic difficulties, Li said at a forum in Beijing. The same assessment could be made of the nations ability to keep issuing currency according to its own needs, he said.To a visitor from outer space, it would be more absurd that after precipitating the biggest Depression in history Bernanke is still in charge of the world.

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## phomsanuk

The Thai baht is confirmed to move in line with other currencies in the region despite concerns for its ongoing strong appreciation, against the US Dollar, Euro and British Pound according to Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij.


The Minister brushed aside a news report that the baht was appreciating the most in the region, saying the Malaysian Ringgit actually appreciated even stronger than the baht. He reaffirmed that the baht was moving in line with other currencies in the region.

Mr. Korn explained that the majority of currencies in the region had been appreciating because of the depreciating US dollars. He noted the Thai baht had been appreciating for years, and it did not affect exporters much because other currencies were also moving in the same direction.

The Minister, however, indicated that the purchasing power of trading partners should be monitored closely because their economic slowdown would indeed affect the Thai export sector.

As for risk factors for Thailand in the latter half of 2010, Mr. Korn believed that they would come from external factors rather than internal ones.

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## chitown

Can anyone tel me what the actual exchange rate is at a Siam Commercial Bank. I have a friend that told me he only got a measly 26. something to the dollar today. The exchange sites show 29. something, so it made me wonder.

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## Thaihome

> Can anyone tel me what the actual exchange rate is at a Siam Commercial Bank. I have a friend that told me he only got a measly 26. something to the dollar today. The exchange sites show 29. something, so it made me wonder.


 
The only way I know to get the actual rate is to stick your ATM in a machine.  It will tell you what rate they are going to use and give you the chance to cancel the transaction.
TH

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## Norton

> Can anyone tel me what the actual exchange rate is at a Siam Commercial Bank


Their website can.

Siam Commercial Bank

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## StrontiumDog

New measure to tackle appreciating Thai baht : National News Bureau of Thailand

New measure to tackle appreciating Thai baht                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

BANGKOK, 11 November  2010 (NNT) - Ministry of Finance is preparing to  announce new measures  to help exporters cope with the appreciating baht  by allowing them to  pay for goods and freight costs with the US  dollars.  

In their effort to help Thai exporters cope with the rising Thai   currency, the Finance ministry, the Federation of Thai Industries, the   Revenue Department, and Bangkok Ship-owners and Agents Association have   jointly agreed to come up with a measure designed specifically for  them.  The measure will allow exporters to pay for their freight charges  in  dollars, instead of baht, hedging their bets against the risk of  the  baht rising further given the costs normally are quoted in dollars.  The  measure is applicable to every exporter. Payments for the freight  can be  transferred directly to freighters’ parent companies abroad.   

 In addition, The Central Bank and the Revenue Department have confirmed   that entrepreneurs can also pay for their domestic orders in the US   currency, the value of which varies each day depending on daily exchange   rates.

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## DrAndy

> Countriess all over the world (think China) have been compensating for their weak domestic demand by exporting to the US for years thus avoiding unemployment at home. This is why countries like China try to artificially keep their currencies at low value compared to the dollar. This is not sustainable.


It doesn't need to be

as they improve internal demand, then the need to export becomes less

as mentioned, the Chinese currency is slowly getting stronger wrt the US$

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## chitown

> Originally Posted by chitown
> 
> Can anyone tel me what the actual exchange rate is at a Siam Commercial Bank
> 
> 
> Their website can.
> 
> Siam Commercial Bank


So it appears to be approximately 32 baht to the dollar for the exchange rate in Thailand.

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## DrAndy

looks like it 

I recently changed $20K and got B650k, so not too bad

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## Thetyim

> 32 baht to the dollar


Your link has the exchange rates dated June 2010

Try this link
ÍÑµÃÒáÅ¡à»ÅÕèÂ¹ ¸¹Ò¤ÒÃä·Â¾Ò³ÔªÂì - SCB Currency Exchange Rates

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## Butterfly

DrA was trolling, and chitown is too dumb to figure it out  :Smile:

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## chitown

> DrA was trolling, and chitown is too dumb to figure it out


I never even read a post by Dr. A, so go back to lady boy chasing. It is more your forte than deciphering a thread and who is responding to who. The link was from Norts you dumb Frenchie poove.

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## phomsanuk

Todd Elmer at Citigroup said he would sell the dollar on the back of the speech .[Bernanke]
Its hard enough to stop a central bank from weakening its currency when it is cutting [interest] rates, but when it is willing to print money to do so, and feels other countries are unjustifiably intervening, it looks very much as if they see a weaker currency, if not as the sole target of monetary policy, then something that is natural, if not inevitable, he said.

They have to put the money somewhere. :Sorry1:

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## socal

> Todd Elmer at Citigroup said he would sell the dollar on the back of the speech .[Bernanke]
> Its hard enough to stop a central bank from weakening its currency when it is cutting [interest] rates, but when it is willing to print money to do so, and feels other countries are unjustifiably intervening, it looks very much as if they see a weaker currency, if not as the sole target of monetary policy, then something that is natural, if not inevitable, he said.
> 
> They have to put the money somewhere.


The baht is not necessarily getting stronger, the dollar is just getting weaker. Americans are losing purchasing power, Asians are gaining it.

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## Mid

Nov 23 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva told reporters on Tuesday:

   * Sees little impact on the economy if the baht/dollar rate stays at 29-30 next year

 * Baht THB=TH was at 30.06 per dollar at 0843 GMT after rising 10.8 percent this year. 

BRIEF-Thai PM sees little impact from baht levels | Reuters

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## Norton

Now for the ripple effect. Even the darkest clouds have a silver lining.

"Thailand’s baht declined by the most in six weeks after North and South  Korea exchanged artillery fire, boosting demand for the relative safety  of the dollar."

"All major currencies in Asia weakened versus the dollar today, led by  the South Korean won and Malaysia’s ringgit. The baht touched the  weakest level in almost seven weeks also as Ireland’s fiscal problems  spurred investors to reduce demand for higher-yielding emerging-market  assets."

Baht Falls Most in Six Weeks as Korea Shelling Bolsters Dollar - BusinessWeek

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## Nostradamus

Bonus. Bring on megadeath if it means the Baht weakening.

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## socal

> Now for the ripple effect. Even the darkest clouds have a silver lining.
> 
> "Thailands baht declined by the most in six weeks after North and South  Korea exchanged artillery fire, boosting demand for the relative safety  of the dollar."
> 
> "All major currencies in Asia weakened versus the dollar today, led by  the South Korean won and Malaysias ringgit. The baht touched the  weakest level in almost seven weeks also as Irelands fiscal problems  spurred investors to reduce demand for higher-yielding emerging-market  assets."
> 
> Baht Falls Most in Six Weeks as Korea Shelling Bolsters Dollar - BusinessWeek


A one off news event like this is not going to change the long term trend.




> safety  of the dollar.


The biggest bubble in history right there, that is yet to pop. The south sea bubble, tulip mania, Nasdaq stocks, real estate, and now the US dollar.

The dollar will always be a safe haven right ? Just like Real estate would always go up.....yeah....

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## BobR

> Originally Posted by Norton
> 
> 
> Now for the ripple effect. Even the darkest clouds have a silver lining.
> 
> "Thailands baht declined by the most in six weeks after North and South  Korea exchanged artillery fire, boosting demand for the relative safety  of the dollar."
> 
> "All major currencies in Asia weakened versus the dollar today, led by  the South Korean won and Malaysias ringgit. The baht touched the  weakest level in almost seven weeks also as Irelands fiscal problems  spurred investors to reduce demand for higher-yielding emerging-market  assets."
> 
> ...



Yes, it's incredibly stupid, but since my pension is in dollars, I like it.

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## The Bold Rodney

> The dollar will always be a safe haven right ? Just like Real estate would always go up.....yeah....


It's gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold... everyone standby for yet another a rivetting economic lesson from "social" on world currenciesssssssssssss"  :deadhorsebig:  :smiley laughing:

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## socal

> Bonus. Bring on megadeath if it means the Baht weakening.


That depends on what currency you earn. The baht has not got that much stronger priced in Swiss Francs or Aussy, Sing or Cad dollars.

If you earn Aussy dollars and the baht weakens because of dollar strength, chances are that the Aussy dollar weakened just as much which gains you nothing. You would incur a loss because commodities priced in US dollars(jet fuel) that you have to pay for in Aus would have went up.

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## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> The dollar will always be a safe haven right ? Just like Real estate would always go up.....yeah....
> 
> 
> It's gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold, gold... everyone standby for yet another a rivetting economic lesson from "social" on world currenciesssssssssssss"


funny that, I limited the amount of times I mention gold because everyone hates it so much (not the sentiment of an asset bubble :mid: , pay attention butterfly) but then you go off on gold anyway.

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## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by Norton
> ...


You  get it.

There is some options out there to diversify at least some of your dollar positions.

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## Butterfly

you should visit small investors forums socal, like yourself, they are all in Gold, it's quite scary. No doubt they are putting all their savings into it like you do  :Smile: 

anyone tried Commodity-link Notes ? quite nice, principal is guaranteed but the "coupon" is linked to a Gold index, therefore you can have returns of 10% and more with the safety of the principal. The downside is that if Gold underperform, you only get 0.5% on your money.

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## Thormaturge

TMB had Sterling at ThB 45.54 yesterday. It is heading for ThB 40 quicker than I expected...



 I'm of the opinion that the Swiss Franc may well soar when the Euro collapses.

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## backinpd2007

2 questions for TD here,
Could somebody please update the currency converter, still showing conversion rates from July 2010?
and secondly, any predictions on how long the Australian dollar can maintain its upward surge, and a likely end rate for Aus/Thai conversion?
All crystal ball stuff, but.........

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## koman

> 2 questions for TD here,
> Could somebody please update the currency converter, still showing conversion rates from July 2010?
> and secondly, any predictions on how long the Australian dollar can maintain its upward surge, and a likely end rate for Aus/Thai conversion?
> All crystal ball stuff, but.........


Try XE.com  It updates every 15 minutes.

As for predicting the duration of the $Aus surge and what it's peak value will be.....
If I could predict things like that, I'd be incredibly wealthy... :Smile:

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