#  >  > Living And Legal Affairs In Thailand >  >  > Thailand and Asia News >  >  > Business, Finance & Economics in Thailand >  >  Will the Baht hit 50?

## English Noodles

What do you lot recken?  The Baht has been fluctuating heavily the past few days, and the British Pound is up to just under the 48 mark. 

Do you think the Baht will hit 50 to the Pound by the end of this month?

 :Smile:

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## taxexile

The British Pound Sterling Live

The outlook is positive for the pound at the moment, could be the right time to transfer £ to Baht.

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## Exige

Hope not. 
currently converting baht to pounds on a monthly basis.

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## English Noodles

Nice link, tax. Cheers.

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## Dillinger

> The outlook is positive for the pound at the moment, could be the right time to transfer £ to Baht.


eh ?  :Confused: 

I reckon GBP-THB will remain at around 48 or below all year now. 

While USD will continue to strengthen against the pound and finish the year off at 1.45

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## mykthemin

It needs to go to at least 50 to make me happy!

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## Troy

It depends what Dollar value Thai Industry has pressured the bot to aim for. Yes, I know the Baht is no longer pegged to the Dollar, but the exchange is still used for World Trade. 

If the bot are aiming for 32 Baht/Dollar or better, which is my guess, then the Pound should hit 50 Baht. This could well happen before the end of the month. If the Baht levels out too early, then I expect another interest drop at the end of August or beginning of September to help with 4th quarter trade.

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## DrAndy

> If the bot are aiming for 32 Baht/Dollar or better, which is my guess, then the Pound should hit 50 Baht.


not if the pound is $1.5

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## Fondles

Hope not, already too many whinging poms out here.

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## flashbang

> Hope not, already too many whinging poms out here.


Stop whinging you rotten pleb.

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## flashbang

50 is still frigging diabolical whatever happens, innit.

Lights came on and the party finished years ago chaps.  Get used to it or suck a dick like that fondles fella.

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## flashbang

> Hope not. 
> currently converting baht to pounds on a monthly basis.


I'll send you a fucking medal in the post.

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## Fondles

> 50 is still frigging diabolical whatever happens, innit.
> 
> Lights came on and the party finished years ago chaps.  Get used to it or suck a dick like that fondles fella.



Seems to me your the one sucking a dick if the exchange rates are really of that much concern to you, I do wish the AUD would tank though as Ive a heap of baht I'd like to slide into my OZ bank account.

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## 9999

> The Baht has been fluctuating heavily the past few days


The Baht heavily fluctuating?

Comparing to Aud, over the last few days, support is at 28.80 and resistance at 29.60. A little volatile sure but I'd hardly call it heavy fluctuation.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...to=THB&view=1W

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## Neo

I'm sure we all look forward to a drop in the short time rate  :Yup:

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## Troy

> not if the pound is $1.5


...except it's 1.56 and I said 32 or better.

Pedantic or what... :Sad:

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## Mid

*Baht Falls to 7-Month Low on China Growth Concern; Bonds Decline*
Yumi Teso
Jun 10, 2013

Thailand’s baht dropped to a seven-month low and government bonds fell on concerns an economic slowdown in China will hurt Asian exports. 

 China’s industrial output climbed 9.2 percent last month, slowing from 9.3 percent in April, and factory-gate prices fell for a 15th month, official data showed yesterday. The world’s second-largest economy is Thailand’s biggest overseas market, accounting for 12 percent of exports in the first four months of 2013. 

All of Asia’s major currencies slid after data on June 7 showed U.S. payrolls gained more than economists estimated in May, fueling speculation the Federal Reserve will taper debt purchases that have boosted demand for emerging-market assets. 

 “Weak data out of China raises concerns about the region’s exports as Asia’s economy depends a lot on sales to China,” said Tohru Nishihama, an economist covering emerging markets at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc. in Tokyo. “There’s also lingering speculation about the Fed. I expect downward pressure on Asian currencies to continue for a while.” 

 The baht depreciated 0.5 percent to 30.79 per dollar as of 3:25 p.m. in Bangkok and touched 30.86 earlier, the weakest level since Nov. 5, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, climbed 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to 6.77 percent. 

 China’s exports rose 1 percent in May after an increase of 14.7 percent the previous month, official data show. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey was for a gain of 7.4 percent. 

 U.S. payrolls climbed by 175,000 in May, beating the 163,000 gain forecast in a Bloomberg survey. The Federal Open Market Committee pledged last month to maintain the stimulus until the labor market shows signs of sustained improvement. 

 The yield on the 3.625 percent notes due June 2023 jumped seven basis points to 3.70 percent, the highest level since January, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

bloomberg.com

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## Dillinger

Finished the month at 47.15

Oh well at least DJ Pat won't be running off from any Thai establishments this year :Smile:

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## Ratchaburi

> Originally Posted by flashbang
> 
> 
> 50 is still frigging diabolical whatever happens, innit.
> 
> Lights came on and the party finished years ago chaps.  Get used to it or suck a dick like that fondles fella.
> 
> 
> 
> Seems to me your the one sucking a dick if the exchange rates are really of that much concern to you, I do wish the AUD would tank though as Ive a heap of baht I'd like to slide into my OZ bank account.


The Aussie dollar down & out,  how low can they go ?
Good luck Fondles :Smile:

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## KEVIN2008

*Thailand Holds Rate as Bahts Retreat Reduces Pressure to Ease*

Since the Southeast Asian nation cut borrowing costs in May to support growth, capital outflows from the region have caused the baht to fall after reaching its strongest level since 1997 in April.

Bloomberg News  10 JULY 2013


By Suttinee YuvejwattanaJuly 10, JULY 2013 


Thailand kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, as the bahts retreat from an almost 16-year high damps pressure for further monetary easing and allows policy makers to guard against growing household debt.

The Bank of Thailand maintained its one-day bond repurchase rate at 2.5 percent, with monetary policy committee members voting unanimously to hold, it said in Bangkok today. Seventeen of 18 economists in a Bloomberg News survey predicted the decision, while one expected a reduction to 2.25 percent.

There was no pressure on them from the bahts side as the currency has retreated, said Kozo Hasegawa, a foreign-exchange trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. in Bangkok. Unless the economic condition deteriorates further from here, the central bank may keep it on hold for the rest of this year.

Since the Southeast Asian nation cut borrowing costs in May to support growth, capital outflows from the region have caused the baht to fall after reaching its strongest level since 1997 in April. Central bank Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul last month cited household debt thats equivalent to 78 percent of gross domestic product as a risk for Thailand, saying monetary policy should be used to ensure price and financial stability.

Stocks Fall
The central bank already took a preemptive move to cut the rate earlier, so they can take a wait and see approach now, Usara Wilaipich, a Bangkok-based economist at Standard Chartered Plc, said before the meeting. There is still downside risk to growth, but concerns on financial stability are likely to outweigh that.

Thailands SET Index (SET) of stocks extended declines after the announcement, and traded 1.3 percent lower as of 3:39 p.m in Bangkok. The baht, which has fallen more than 1 percent in the past month, rose 0.2 percent to 31.24 per dollar. It is the best performer after the Chinese yuan in the past 12 months among 11 Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

Selling in Thai stocks and bonds intensified in May on concern the U.S. Federal Reserve will pare back monetary stimulus, resulting in $1.37 billion of outflows from financial markets, up from $44 million in April, according to the central banks data as of end-June.

Baht Factor
When the Bank of Thailand cut the rate at the last meeting, a lot of that centered around the strength in the Thai baht, Lim Su Sian, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Singapore, said in a Bloomberg Television interview before the decision. Now a lot of the pressure, I think, is removed because the Thai baht has gone the other way.

Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong, who had urged the central bank to cut rates to help discourage inflows that were boosting the baht earlier this year, said last week recent fund outflows arent a concern because Thailand experienced significant fund inflows earlier in 2013.

Still, policy makers may remain under pressure to support economic expansion. The central bank said today growth will be less than 5 percent this year, compared with a current estimate of 5.1 percent, saying it will announce new forecasts on July 19. The authority will monitor the global economy and financial stability, and expects inflation pressure to remain benign on lower oil prices, Assistant Governor Paiboon Kittisrikangwan told reporters.

The Finance Ministry in June lowered its 2013 growth forecast to 4 percent to 5 percent from 4.8 percent to 5.8 percent previously because of the slow recovery experienced by its trade partners and easing private-sector spending. The central bank has also said it would cut its 7.5 percent export growth forecast for 2013.

Inflation Slows
We already foresaw the slowing economy; thats why we cut the rate last time to support economic growth, Paiboon said. Given the current information, the 2.5 percent rate is an appropriate level. If the global economy and local economy change going forward, we will assess the data and that may lead to proper policy action.

While household debt hasnt reached dangerous levels yet, the central bank will closely monitor it, and there are signs the situation may improve, he said.

The impact of monetary policy on the economy has a lag time and its hard to predict when or whether commercial banks will adjust rates after a policy move, the assistant governor said. Supply problems such as labor shortages and infrastructure cant be fixed by monetary policy, Paiboon said.

Dont rely too much on monetary policy, he said. Its not the only answer for the Thai economy.

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## Seekingasylum

> Originally Posted by taxexile
> 
> The outlook is positive for the pound at the moment, could be the right time to transfer £ to Baht.
> 
> 
> eh ? 
> 
> I reckon GBP-THB will remain at around 48 or below all year now. 
> 
> While USD will continue to strengthen against the pound and finish the year off at 1.45


Finished yesterday on a high of 48.91.

US figures are wilting a bit and folk there still await confirmation QE will be tapered as expected back in May. The UK data appears to show increasing activity in many areas and sentiment is rising. I think the £ may well get back to 1.60 and the baht back to its level which prevailed more or less continuosuly for the previous 4 years i.e. 50 - 52.

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## Pragmatic

We live in hope.

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## Tickiteboo

Limping in the right direction towards 50, but still feels too low to me.

I first came here in late 05 and was getting 72/73 (the good old days  :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic): )

Don't think we'll ever see those rates again.  :Smile:

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## Thormaturge

This is temporary as Thailand is trying to offload a large amount of warehoused rice.

Sterling, at $ 1.56 is trading at the top end of its usual corridor ($ 1.60 - $ 1.40) and the Dollar doesn't like ThB 31.  I think ThB 48 is the best we are going to see for Sterling.

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## Seekingasylum

Interbank rate hits 49.10........

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## Gerbil

^ Because as of today, Thailand is officially in recession.....

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## Albert Shagnastier

> This is temporary as Thailand is trying to offload a large amount of warehoused rice.  Sterling, at $ 1.56 is trading at the top end of its usual corridor ($ 1.60 - $ 1.40) and the Dollar doesn't like ThB 31. I think ThB 48 is the best we are going to see for Sterling.


Yup, sounds about right

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## Gerbil

Thailand has fallen into recession after the economy shrank unexpectedly in the second quarter of the year.

The 0.3% contraction in gross domestic product between April and June followed a previous fall of 1.7% during the first quarter of 2013.

Previously, Thailand had been recording strong economic growth, outpacing other economies in the region, with expansion of more than 6% during 2012.

Many analysts had expected this performance to continue.

Sanjay Mathur, head of economics research at RBS, told the BBC that weak exports and domestic demand, plus fading business confidence, were to blame for the downturn.

"The fundamental problem here is that it's not just about exports, it is about domestic demand."

"We should be looking at growth of about 3.5%," he said. "In the early part of the year, expectations were that Thailand would be forging ahead of several Asian economies, so that has been a big disappointment."

The end of large-scale government investment projects following the devastation caused by flooding at the end of 2011 has also been cited as a cause for the fall in domestic consumption, which accounts for about half of economic output.

By the end of 2012 Thailand's growth was exceeding expectations, with gross domestic product in the October-to-December period jumping by 18.9% from a year earlier.

However, high household debt, and rising prices have continued to cause concern, and following a cut in interest rates in May, the Bank of Thailand left rates unchanged at 2.5% at its last meeting.

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## Albert Shagnastier

ASEAN will give Thailand the kick up the arse it needs. They don't heed us pale faces, but their next door neighbours taking their jobs will liven them up  :Smile:

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## Rural Surin

> ^ Because as of today, Thailand is officially in recession.....


 
......yes, officially. :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

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## Seekingasylum

Creating domestic demand by increasing the credit supply needs regulation - allowing inflation into the system brings its own pressure and competitiveness can suffer. Boom and bust, increased borrowing to finance public debt, infrastructure and social programmes will all affect the baht which to date has been underpinned by growth dependent on China, trade with the EU and historic inflows arising from QE by the US etc. which are likely to taper away into economic oblivion as the tool of choice by central banks.

The trajectory is flattening and exports are falling. The rice farce and internal divisions within Thaksin's government as they squabble to steal evermore from the economy bodes ill for political stability in the near term.

The baht is a poor bet for so many reasons and folk holding it should consider off loading sooner than later. The markets are giving you the signal. Thailand is entering a new phase and their endemic corruption will become increasingly significant.

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## terry57

Jesus, The Aussie dollar is dropping quicker than a whores draws.

Foking pissed off I am.  :Confused:

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## robuzo

> Creating domestic demand by increasing the credit supply needs regulation - allowing inflation into the system brings its own pressure and competitiveness can suffer. Boom and bust, increased borrowing to finance public debt, infrastructure and social programmes will all affect the baht which to date has been underpinned by growth dependent on China, trade with the EU and historic inflows arising from QE by the US etc. which are likely to taper away into economic oblivion as the tool of choice by central banks.
> 
> The trajectory is flattening and exports are falling. The rice farce and internal divisions within Thaksin's government as they squabble to steal evermore from the economy bodes ill for political stability in the near term.
> 
> The baht is a poor bet for so many reasons and folk holding it should consider off loading sooner than later. The markets are giving you the signal. Thailand is entering a new phase and their endemic corruption will become increasingly significant.


I agree. Thailand has decide whether to return to the mercantilist model based on competitive exports (=cheaper baht) or the pumped up credit/pointless construction (except as a place for the rentier class to park money)/overconsumption model that favors the upper-upper-class and allows the plebes to appear wealthy (look at that new Isuzu!) until they realize they are bust. Also, in the future paying back creditors you borrowed from when the baht was 30/$1 with baht that are worth 40/$1 will be appealing. Look at what Japan is doing. . .

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## Seekingasylum

I see the £ is trading at 49.57. 

The Aussie $ was stupidly over priced by a market obsessed by all things Chinese.  Just watch that ridiculously inflated property bubble go pop and their silly labour rates slide.

Australia is essentially a coon economy reliant upon the export of ore and minerals. They have no domestic market capable of maintaining stimuli and are essentially isolated in a region which discriminates against them.

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## Bower

I see the bank rates for the £ but can anyone let me know what you can get in the exchange bureaus, like Vasu in Sukhumvit please.

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## withnallstoke

> but can anyone let me know what you can get in the exchange bureaus


Ripped off.

Probably.

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## snakeeyes

Currency / Baht       Bank Note                 

    Sell-------       Buy                     

EUR         42.85---             41.67                           

GBP         50.34---             48.66                          

HKD         4.21---             3.95                                                                                                  

JPY         33.24 ---            31.90                          

USD         31.9---             31.2

AUD 29.50--- 28, 90

à¸[at]à¸±à¸•à¸£à¸²à¹à¸¥à¸à¹€à¸›à¸¥à¸µà¹ˆà¸¢à¸™ à¸˜à¸™à¸²à¸„à¸²à¸£à¹„à¸—à¸¢à¸žà¸²à¸“à¸´à¸Šà¸¢à¹Œ - SCB Currency Exchange Rates


*SET index down 27.62 points*Published: 20 Aug 2013 at 16.59Online news:The Stock Exchange of Thailand main index went  down 27.62 points, or 1.98%, to close at 1,370.86 points at the end of  trading session this afternoon. The trade value was 58.03 billion baht,  with 10.27 billion shares traded.
        The SET50 index ended at 931.47 points, down 16.23 points, or 1.71%, with a total trade value of 46.85 billion baht.
 The SET100 index fell 39.20 points, or 1.88%, to stand at 2,049.53 points, with a total turnover of 51.85 billion baht.
 The SETHD index went down 13.17 points, or 1.17%, to stand at 1,111.79 points, with total trade value of 19.62 billion baht.
 The MAI index dropped 11.61 points, or 3.02%, to close at 372.40 points, with total transaction value of 847.75 million baht.


Top five most active values were as follows;

KBANK stood at 171.00 baht, down 5.00 baht (2.84%)
INTUCH stood at 85.00 baht, down 2.50 baht (2.86%)
SCB stood at 151.00 baht, down 4.00 baht (2.58%)
ADVANC (XD) stood at 259.00 baht, down 5.00 baht (1.89%)
PTT stood at 319.00 baht, up 3.00 baht (0.95%

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## Bower

VASU' s site now updated showing:
Buying £ @ 49.30
          $  @ 31.60

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## Fluke

Wahey, so thats a bottle of Chang from 7/11 for less than a Pound

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## misskit

JPY 33.24 

Go, yen, go!

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## flashbang

It is obvious to me that the pound should be stronger, I mean, we fucking created the world so our money should rule and be able to buy whatever the fuck we want to buy with it, d'you know what I mean, if I give some flip flop wearing spanner a pound coin with the queens head on it then in exchange he should give me whatever the fuck I ask for, innit.

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## Bobcock

49.91 on XE at the moment

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## chingching

i pine for the days it was 80-90s at the crash in 97 ..fu c k 50 ,thats piddling money

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## Bobcock

> i pine for the days it was 80-90s at the crash in 97 ..fu c k 50 ,thats piddling money


93.xx was the biggest rate I ever got, lent someone some money at that rate, they were paying back for years to come, paying for my trips here after it was down in the 70's....

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## Thormaturge

SCB is giving ThB 49 or Euro 42 for £ 1  this morning.

 Buy now while stocks last.

 Sad that ThB 49 for £ 1 feels like a good rate!

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## raycarey

> It is obvious to me that the pound should be stronger, I mean, we fucking created the world so our money should rule and be able to buy whatever the fuck we want to buy with it, d'you know what I mean, if I give some flip flop wearing spanner a pound coin with the queens head on it then in exchange he should give me whatever the fuck I ask for, innit.



that sound you just heard was texpat's head exploding.

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## English Noodles

50+ on Xe today.  :bananaman:

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## Exige

> 50+ on Xe today.


On the XE app it's 49.97 :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

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## Davis Knowlton

Philippine peso is heading in the right direction....A few months ago was teetering near 40/USD1. Today, almost up to 44/1. Nice if, like me, your pension and client payments are in USD.

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## r1 pet

my screen thingy tells me its 50.133 for the pound, :Smile:

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## Exige

as of 1133hrs Bkk time it's 50.00  :Smile:  ref XE

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## Thormaturge

^
Very good but nowhere on the planet gives the rates XE quote.

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## Exige

Bank of Thailand Exchange rates

                               Buy                         Sell
United Kingdom gbp      49.2197 49.3884          50.0446

Daily Foreign Exchange Rates

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## Seekingasylum

I should think the BoT would be content to see it drift down further and hit 55 - 60.

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## Dillinger

> Very good but nowhere on the planet gives the rates XE quote.


Vasu Exchange are giving 49.95

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## taxexile

The avarice of the thai will ensure that neither tourist nor expat benefit  from the weakening of the baht.

Prices will be adjusted to ensure that the thai bottom line continues to fatten up, just as it did when the baht was strengthening and prices should have been falling.

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## Butterfly

> ^
> Very good but nowhere on the planet gives the rates XE quote.


XE is using quotes from some non-official FX exchange, it's completely useless

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## taxexile

> Originally Posted by Thormaturge
> 
> 
> ^
> Very good but nowhere on the planet gives the rates XE quote.
> 
> 
> XE is using quotes from some non-official FX exchange, it's completely useless


Whichever twisted way you try to spin this story, the fact is that the recent resurgence of the british economy, combined with the results of years of mismanagement of the thai economy have caused the pound to stage a comeback against many currencies including asias one hit wonder, the baht.

By the way, whats the longterm outlook for the euro at the moment, will it be saved by a resurgence in the economy of that other european powerhouse, belgium ?
 :UK:

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## Butterfly

> combined with the results of years of mismanagement of the thai economy have caused the pound to stage a comeback against many currencies including asias one hit wonder, the baht.


I think everyone is taking their profit on the SET after 3 spectacular years, and that the Thai rice scandal is going to affect Thailand fiscal policies, hence increase their deficit, hence everyone is dumping the THB

it's not the UK that is improving, it's Thailand getting worse, don't confuse the 2

the UK is still in the shit despite some recent misleading rosy numbers,

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## astasinim

> the UK is still in the shit despite some recent misleading rosy numbers,



Of course it is, just the same as the Euro and the Dollar. All that seems to be happening is, other countries are starting to join the race to the bottom.

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## Seekingasylum

> Originally Posted by taxexile
> 
> combined with the results of years of mismanagement of the thai economy have caused the pound to stage a comeback against many currencies including asias one hit wonder, the baht.
> 
> 
> I think everyone is taking their profit on the SET after 3 spectacular years, and that the Thai rice scandal is going to affect Thailand fiscal policies, hence increase their deficit, hence everyone is dumping the THB
> 
> it's not the UK that is improving, it's Thailand getting worse, don't confuse the 2
> 
> the UK is still in the shit despite some recent misleading rosy numbers,


Nevertheless, the underlying principles of good governance, fiscal controls and the inevitable cycle of recovery following recession mean that the UK economy, and perforce the £, is now on an upward trajectory. Data supports this and the markets reflect the sentiment. " Rosy (sic)" is scarcely an accurate interpretation but I can well understand your own personal prejudices intruding, particularly when one knows the Euro is likely to be bedevilled by their weakest links for God knows how long. 

The greatest threat to the £'s recovery is the antics of that Canadian Carney who seems to be very much a one trick pony in that to date his contribution to the Bank of England's management has been limited to talking the £ down at every given opportunity. It was only yesterday that his sidekick Wheale raised the prospect that further QE may be necessary should the recovery be stymied. This of course is utter nonsense but indicative of Carney's style. As indeed is his equally vacuous drivel that rates will be held at their current level for the next 3-5 years. The whole world and his wife knows that inflation will have to be checked at some point and, as the markets have already shown, the belief is that rates will almost certainly rise sooner than later. 

As I have said consistently, the £ was undervalued as much as the baht was over priced. Folk underestimated the effect of the capital inflows generated by US QE and confused this with the alleged systemic robustness of the Thai economy, the underlying weakness of which has now been stripped bare.

The increasing debt among consumers, problematic funding for forthcoming mega projects, reduced tax revenues and the impact of the rice scandal will need addressing. The last thing the BoT want is an artificially inflated baht so I foresee a further slide downwards against western currencies as a desired outcome if only to reinvigorate growth.

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## david44

Its at 49.5-50.05 for 50s at Superich Rajdamri and over 5RM here in KL at best money changers in Brickfields


USD
United States

100	32.00	32.10
50	31.95	32.10
20-10	31.85	32.00
5	31.75	32.00
1	31.30	31.90

EUR
European Union

500-100	42.65	42.80
50	42.55	-
20-10	42.45	-

GBP
United Kingdom

50	49.90	50.10
20-5	49.80	-

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## chingching

> It is obvious to me that the pound should be stronger, I mean, we fucking created the world so our money should rule and be able to buy whatever the fuck we want to buy with it, d'you know what I mean, if I give some flip flop wearing spanner a pound coin with the queens head on it then in exchange he should give me whatever the fuck I ask for, innit.



spot on -guvner

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## chingching

> Originally Posted by chingching
> 
> 
> i pine for the days it was 80-90s at the crash in 97 ..fu c k 50 ,thats piddling money
> 
> 
> 93.xx was the biggest rate I ever got, lent someone some money at that rate, they were paying back for years to come, paying for my trips here after it was down in the 70's....


i actually got 103 at the peak but nobody believes me , it onlly lasted at that rate for 10 minutes then dropped back .
i pity guys buying/building  property now at  40s ish

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## Pragmatic

This guy was wrong in his forecast. Hopefully he remains so.




> *Thai Baht Hits All-Time High Against The Pound, Looks Set to Keep Rising*
> 
> Fri 19th April 2013
> Moreover, it looks as though the Thai baht will continue its rise this year. This is because:
> _1. The United States and Japan are printing huge sums of money, in an attempt to prop up their ailing economies._
> This will further lift the baht, as this money makes its way to Thailand, where profits are higher.
> _2. Thailand's central bank may raise interest rates later this year, to fight inflation of 2.8%._
> This could send the baht higher, as higher interest rates make a currency more profitable to hold.
> _3. The World Bank has upgraded its growth forecast for Thailand this year +0.3% to 5.3%._
> ...


 Thai Baht Hits All-Time High Against The Pound, Looks Set to Keep Rising

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## Gerbil

> i actually got 103 at the peak but nobody believes me


Maybe because you are talking complete bollocks.

The absolute highest the GBP/THB exchange rate reached was 89 (and that was the inter bank rate) in Jan 98. Typically it was mid 70's after the crash until the slow decline we have seen since.

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## Butterfly

I think the fear of inflation and the stop of the QE by the EU and the US Central Banks is putting a lot of pressure on all those overvalued Asian currencies

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## david44

agreed

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## Thormaturge

> Originally Posted by Thormaturge
> 
> 
> ^
> Very good but nowhere on the planet gives the rates XE quote.
> 
> 
> XE is using quotes from some non-official FX exchange, it's completely useless


 Yup, I ignore it since it has no commerical significance.

  Here is one that is a tad more realistic:   http://www.sendmoneyhome.co.uk/send-money-by-bank

 The Baht drops in value every time the government releases a large amount of rice from its warehouses; are those sales priced in Dollars by some chance?

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## Davis Knowlton

Philippine Peso still dropping against the USD. 44.15/$1 today. First time it's broken the 44 line in quite a long time.

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## Fluke

> Originally Posted by chingching
> 
> i actually got 103 at the peak but nobody believes me
> 
> 
> Maybe because you are talking complete bollocks.
> 
> The absolute highest the GBP/THB exchange rate reached was 89 (and that was the inter bank rate) in Jan 98. Typically it was mid 70's after the crash until the slow decline we have seen since.


  When I was back the the U.K a good few years ago , I did check the Baht /Pound exchange rate occasionally and for a few days during some unrest in Thailand it skyrocketed  to about the 100 mark , I then checked a few days later and it was back to the normal rate of about 70 .
  As I was just casually checking the exchange rates , I thought that I may have mistakenly looked at another currency , Im still not sure whether I did or not .
   It was 70 one day , 100 the next and then back to 70 a few days later......but I may have been looking at the wrong currency in the middle .

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## Thetyim

^
You were not mistaken.
The baht did go past the 100 mark but only for a very short time.

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## Fluke

And since then, like everyone else I expect , I ve been thinking.......Why didnt I...do I have to write it ?  :Smile:

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## Seekingasylum

Perhaps this might shed some light on why the baht is falling:

Emerging market rout threatens wider global economy - Telegraph

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## KEVIN2008

Thailand cut its 2013 growth forecast as the country entered recession for the first time since the global financial crisis, with rising household debt limiting central bank scope to support the economy. Stocks fell.
Gross domestic product unexpectedly shrank 0.3 percent in the three months through June from the previous quarter, when it contracted a revised 1.7 percent, the National Economic and Social Development Board said in Bangkok today. Only one of 11 analysts surveyed had predicted a decline. The economy rose a less-than-estimated 2.8 percent from a year earlier.


Thailand Cuts Growth Outlook as Economy Enters Recession - Bloomberg

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## chingching

> Originally Posted by chingching
> 
> i actually got 103 at the peak but nobody believes me
> 
> 
> Maybe because you are talking complete bollocks.
> 
> The absolute highest the GBP/THB exchange rate reached was 89 (and that was the inter bank rate) in Jan 98. Typically it was mid 70's after the crash until the slow decline we have seen since.


you weren't changing money at the exchange i was so i know your talking out of your ass
in 1 day at the crash banks were in panic and the numbers on the board were being changed by the hour and even half hour.
the graphs you may find online dont refelct what was happening around town during the meltdown.
i was buying a bag of cement for 100 bahts at the time which equated to 1 pound so thats how i know it was over 100

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## nigelandjan

I sent a fair sum of money to Thailand 3 days ago was cashed in yesterday when it landed at 49.40 to the £  and I am mega happy with that !  :Smile: 

Dont seem a lot but makes a big difference when your gonna undertake a build project 

Happy days

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## Butterfly

intraday trades could have reached 100, but the close could have been 70

if you are into forex and have DMA to forex exchanges, it's quite possible to trade above the close or the official rates at the bank

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## Gerbil

> you weren't changing money at the exchange i was so i know your talking out of your ass


No I wasn't. I was working for the B.O.T. at the time involved with upgrading their currency exchange systems so I know what I'm talking about.  :Smile:

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## Seekingasylum

I see the rate is now fluctuating around 52.48 baht to the £.

The daft thing about this is that the BoT et al will attribute the depreciation to a reaction to the current protests and rising resentment of Yingluck's gang. This of course is just masking the real economic problems caused by the disastrous rice interventionist policies, rapidly escalating public expenditure debt, inflation and ever increasing exposure to personal indebtedness that the credit boom has engendered.

Thailand's construction boom was fuelled by Thai speculating at every level. This time they have been the architects of their own foolishness and the perfect storm is brewing. The only long term solution will be to have a further devalued baht sufficient to kickstart their flagging exports although that will have to be balanced against inevitable increase in imports, particularly energy costs. 

I think 60bt to the £ and 40bt to the US$ is the optimum but that will doubtless irritate the hiso gang that have been creaming it over the past 5 years. Poor dears will just have to pay more for their London houses.

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## Troy

^ Except it isn't just the Baht is it....Ringgit, Singapore Dollar, Australian Dollar and etc are all weakening against the Sterling and Euro. Suggests to me that the Euro and Pound are recovering rather than vice-versa....

Building infrastructure is a proven technique of getting yourself out of a decline and the policy was far from wrong....and subsidising farming is required (albeit incorrectly administered for years) in order for Thailand to sustain agriculture until someone with a bit of 'common' comes along and initiates policies to educate on better farming techniques to increase yields through crop selection, water storage and community sharing of equipment (amongst others) rather than plodding along in the manner better suited to the 12th Century.

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## English Noodles

B53 today.  :bananaman:

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## English Noodles

And the Great British Pound goes marching on. 54.2 today.  :UK:

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## Begbie

50 to the dollar might be a better question?

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## terry57

Just a heads up to you guys that walk in your cash.

Go to " Super Rich " Silom and get the best exchange rate.  

Banks can never compete.  Take your Passport.

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## chassamui

> 50 to the dollar might be a better question


5555555

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## Thormaturge

The speed at which the Baht is declining must be worrying the central bank by now.  It is becoming clear that the proposed election is not going to solve the problem and we seem to be heading for a bad year with political and commercial disruption.

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## Seekingasylum

Sentiment is all these days. For we Brits surviving on sterling paid pensions and lump sums it seems 2014 is our year of recovery. The noises within the chattering economist classes, a feckless bunch, admittedly,but they do add to the equation, is that sterling is approaching safe haven status with a projected value of $1.80 in the course of the next year.

60 baht to the £ is likely by Spring and folk should plan accordingly.

The persistent foolishness of the Thai is of course the cherry on top and long may they continue to shoot themselves in the foot.

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## Seekingasylum

I see the rate is knocking on the door of 55 bt to the £.

I rather think my projection is on course. Structural weaknesses in the Thai economy can no longer be papered over by the QE dividend or hubristic political sloganising in conjunction with a BoT uttering inane platitudes. Of course, the resurgent British economy is driving the increase in the £ which will inevitably lead to a greater fiscal velocity and a concomitant rise in interest rates.

We pensioners will reign again!

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## PAG

^

I reconciled the amount that I paid for my house in 2008 against the then exchange rate (69 baht/pound) which I was more than comfortable with.

Now, the buying rate is circa low 53's (55 plus is the selling rate), so important to separate the two.  Still a lot better than a year or so ago of course, and like 'The Gent', tantamount to a decent 'pay rise'!

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## chassamui

> Now, the buying rate is circa low 53's (55 plus is the selling rate), so important to separate the two. Still a lot better than a year or so ago of course, and like 'The Gent', tantamount to a decent 'pay rise'!


Genuinely pleased for you mate.

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