#  >  > Living And Legal Affairs In Thailand >  >  > Thailand and Asia News >  >  > Business, Finance & Economics in Thailand >  >  Marc Faber Says World Heading for 'Major Inflection Point'

## Butterfly

Stocks are cheap and USD is a bargain  :Razz: 

be ready for the Gold crash  :Smile: 


Marc Faber Says World Heading for `Major Inflection Point' - Bloomberg




> Global markets are heading for an important turning point as interest rates begin to rise within about three months and the U.S. dollar gains, according to investor Marc Faber.
> 
> Investors should buy stocks and sell cash and bonds because governments are continuing to print too much money and may create a new credit bubble, Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, told reporters during a forum in Seoul today.
> 
> Instead of interest rates going down, they could start to go up, instead of the dollar being weak, it could strengthen, Faber said. Im ultra-bearish on everything, but I believe youll be better off owning shares than government bonds.
> 
> The Dollar Index slid 8.5 percent last quarter, the most since June 2002, and dropped 1.3 percent this month after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he may add money to the economy. That new supply is reflected in exchange rates, based on how the currency reacted to the last round of so-called quantitative easing, said HSBC Holdings Plc, BNP Paribas SA and Nordea Bank AB. The central banks of Israel and Taiwan raised borrowing costs in the last 15 days.
> 
> Fabers recommendation on stocks is shared by Warren Buffett, the billionaire chairman of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Investors buying bonds now are making a mistake, he said Oct. 5 at Fortune magazines Most Powerful Women conference in Washington.
> ...

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## Friedclams

Where's the part about the gold crash?

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## nikster

USD gains - here's to hoping he's right  :Smile:

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## 9999

sweet, the missus just hocked a bracelet I gave her 2 years ago to buy a phone. think it made about 15%, but who knows how much the shifty chinese gold merchants scraped.

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## socal

> Where's the part about the gold crash?


nobody likes gold more then Marc Faber.

butterfly has been wrong about gold and is just jealous that he has lost so much money not buying when i was, about 2 months ago.

people that have no understanding on how the financial markets work will continue to be wrong about gold.

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## socal

> sweet, the missus just hocked a bracelet I gave her 2 years ago to buy a phone. think it made about 15%, but who knows how much the shifty chinese gold merchants scraped.


that was sure dumb. 

what if she did that 2 years ago ?

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## Butterfly

God will crash as soon as interests go up, like most commodities, for different technical reasons

Futures and Forwards for example, the majority of Gold related trading, use interest rates in their pricing formula which directly deflate price (like Bonds, something socal can relate to)

When this happens, Gold and other Futures related commodities will deflate at record pace because of the cascading and correlation effects of Futures with their underlying.

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## Butterfly

> people that have no understanding on how the financial markets work will continue to be wrong about gold.


you can say that again and look at yourself in the mirror  :Smile:

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## Begbie

> Originally Posted by Friedclams
> 
> 
> Where's the part about the gold crash?
> 
> 
> nobody likes gold more then Marc Faber.
> 
> butterfly has been wrong about gold and is just jealous that he has lost so much money not buying when i was, about 2 months ago.
> ...


Financial markets are like herds of sheep and Gold has no intrinsic value except as a bolt hole when things are bad.

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## socal

[quote=Butterfly;1579586]


> God will crash as soon as interests go up, like most commodities, for different technical reasons


You need to figure out how a market works. You are implying that gold will go down when interest rates go up. Since interest rates are the inverse of the price of bonds, there will have to be huge outflows of money out of the bond market for interest rates to go up. This will happen, that is why I am buying gold. When the trillions of dollars that are in the bond markets of the world flow out, this money needs to find a new home. Take a guess as to where allot of this money will find a new home in....






> Futures and Forwards for example, the majority of Gold related trading, use interest rates in their pricing formula which directly deflate price (like Bonds, something socal can relate to)


Gold and gold mining shares went to the moon during the great depression. :mid: 




> When this happens, Gold and other Futures related commodities will deflate at record pace because of the cascading and correlation effects of Futures with their underlying.


If you still are not educated enough to know that gold is not a commodity then this $1388 price that gold hit today must really be confusing you.

People like you, that dont understand central banking, have been saying the "price will crash" at $880, $1080, $1180, $1280(for the few days that it stayed there) and now $1380. You have been proven wrong.

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## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> 
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>  Originally Posted by Friedclams
> ...


You have it backwards. The paper fiat currency that gold is priced in has no intrinsic value. 

So many average people like you think they have this bubble thing figured out now and they are getting burned again without even realizing it, again.

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## Butterfly

> You need to figure out how a market works. You are implying that gold will go down when interest rates go up. Since interest rates are the inverse of the price of bonds, there will have to be huge outflows of money out of the bond market for interest rates to go up. This will happen, that is why I am buying gold. When the trillions of dollars that are in the bond markets of the world flow out, this money needs to find a new home. Take a guess as to where allot of this money will find a new home in....


you are confusing credit spread with reference interest rates boy  :Smile: 




> Gold and gold mining shares went to the moon during the great depression


panic time non-sense like the boom that preceded it  :Smile: 




> If you still are not educated enough to know that gold is not a commodity then this $1388 price that gold hit today must really be confusing you.


hahaha, the irony  :Smile: 




> People like you, that dont understand central banking, have been saying the "price will crash" at $880, $1080, $1180, $1280(for the few days that it stayed there) and now $1380. You have been proven wrong.


Hardly, I have no problem believing that Gold could reach 2000 USD because I know how foolish people can be with their money. I have seen happened so many times, it's like rewatching a bad movie all over again.

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## Butterfly

> So many average people like you think


actually the average people are going into Gold  :Razz:

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## 9999

> Originally Posted by 9999
> 
> 
> sweet, the missus just hocked a bracelet I gave her 2 years ago to buy a phone. think it made about 15%, but who knows how much the shifty chinese gold merchants scraped.
> 
> 
> that was sure dumb. 
> 
> what if she did that 2 years ago ?


Why is it dumb? are you supposed to hoard your gold forever?

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## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> You need to figure out how a market works. You are implying that gold will go down when interest rates go up. Since interest rates are the inverse of the price of bonds, there will have to be huge outflows of money out of the bond market for interest rates to go up. This will happen, that is why I am buying gold. When the trillions of dollars that are in the bond markets of the world flow out, this money needs to find a new home. Take a guess as to where allot of this money will find a new home in....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ...


whats your 20 year target then ? 

Just to give you a pointer, gold never went back to its old high of $20.67 dollars after it was revalued at $35 during the great depression and it also never went back to its old highs in the 70s of $60, $70, $120, $190, $230. It has proven to stay above old highs.

This is where you go wrong again. You boast that its a bubble and might go to $2000 but where will it fall back to if it is a bubble ? Did it fall to $10 after the so called "mainia" in the 30s ? No. Did it fall to $50 after the so called "mania" in the 70s ? No. 

If it goes to $3000, will it fall to $800 ?  You have to make the case that this time is different. Good luck.

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## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> So many average people like you think
> 
> 
> actually the average people are going into Gold


no the average person is loaded with bonds without even knowing it. Nobody owns gold.

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## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> 
> 
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> 
>  Originally Posted by 9999
> ...


no but the way you presented your story was a cheap-shot to anyone that is long gold.

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## The Ghost Of The Moog

> sweet, the missus just hocked a bracelet I gave her 2 years ago to buy a phone. think it made about 15%, but who knows how much the shifty chinese gold merchants scraped.


The strengthening of the Thai baht in the last two years didn't help you there, even though the gold prices has gone up.





> the way you presented your story was a cheap-shot to anyone that is long gold.


You're very emotionally involved in this. Do you put all your gold coins on top of your bed, then roll around nude on them, cackling _'its all mine'_?

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## SiLeakHunt

The sooner gold crashes the better from my point of view !

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## Nostradamus

Gold will remain pikey however much it is worth.

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## socal

> The sooner gold crashes the better from my point of view !


There is no possible mathematical way that gold can crash in the next 10 years.

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## Butterfly

:rofl: 

actually statistically, Gold is due a big correction anytime soon  :Razz:

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## 9999

> Originally Posted by 9999
> 
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> 
> 
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> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by socal
> ...


Oh right, coz you must be sooo long on gold eh. I bet the average bar girl is longer on gold than you mate. You sound like you're still hashing out the basics in 2nd year economics. So does BF but then again he always has sounded like that.

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## robuzo

> Originally Posted by SiLeakHunt
> 
> 
> The sooner gold crashes the better from my point of view !
> 
> 
> There is no possible mathematical way that gold can crash in the next 10 years.


I don't know about that, but until the Chinese, Indians and other Asians give up their love affair with gold- essentially, a portable store of value that is liquid everywhere- dips in gold will probably find a floor pretty quickly.

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## Thormaturge

With both the UK and the US set to ease their currencies even further, and the likelihood of serious instability in the Middle East affecting oil supplies in the not too distant future, I would be tempted to put money in gold rather than anything else just now. 

I'm curious about silver though.

I don't think there is much more to be had out of Potash.

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## Butterfly

socal does have a point though,

to control inflation with such low interest rates, it would make sense that "excess" reserves are diverted into the parking of "Gold" investment and higher Oil prices. The high oil prices becomes a substitute of higher interest rates without the negative impact that is general with higher interest rates. With QE, Oil acts as an exchange rate and so does Gold. Eventually, those "exchange rates" will reverse.

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## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by 9999
> ...


I don't know what gave you the idea that I am poor.  I own almost 2 pounds of gold now and that is not my biggest position.

You don't even know that this is macroeconomics, thats shows how much you know...

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## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by SiLeakHunt
> ...


Nobody has a love affair with gold right now, historically.

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## Ripley

> actually statistically, Gold is due a big correction anytime soon


I'll let you guys know when I buy some because the next day is when it'll correct or deflect or whatever.. :Smile: 

Socal what do you do with your gold, to keep it safe?

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## socal

> Originally Posted by Butterfly
> 
> 
> 
> 
> actually statistically, Gold is due a big correction anytime soon 
> 
> 
> I'll let you guys know when I buy some because the next day is when it'll correct or deflect or whatever..
> ...


I have a Bank of Novascotia safety deposit box. Its only $35 a year.

Sort term gyrations in the price don't matter but you can try this. 

Buy on COMEX futures options expiry dates. They are usually the 26 or 27 of the month. The next options expiry date is tomorrow actually, Oct.27. 10

Nobody is sure if JP Morgan is still using those days but it has been working. Gold has been down or calm on these days.

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## socal

Looks like JP Morgan is going to slam the metals tomorrow, like usual. Thats what futures are indicating.

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## socal

Down $14. Thats not allot percentage wise but is allot for this time of year. If I needed some gold, I would buy today.

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## Bower

I know i am repeating myself but if you wish to buy gold, stick to physical gold, preferably coins. Easy to buy easy to sell (instantly). Look at www.kitco.com and at any time you can see the value of your holdings. Coins fetch 6% over spot.You can purchase in small amounts and i hold no more than 20% of personal savings,investments in gold. Silver has done very well, better than i expected. Its cheaper to get into, but bulky. Silver also has many industrial uses and as economies improve the demand should grow, could be a winner either way.

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## Butterfly

gold coins are nice, but a bit overpriced these days

when Gold is back to 300 USD, they will be a nice long term investment

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## socal

> gold coins are nice, but a bit overpriced these days
> 
> when Gold is back to 300 USD, they will be a nice long term investment


The people that thought the same as you in the 70s are still waiting to pick some up at $100 an oz. 

Join the club. :Smile:

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## Perota

Marc Faber .... the infamous Dr Doom

As said before, my money is in China related funds and they're doing fine for the time being. Given the only thing I do is checking at the end of the month that I've more money than the previous month, I'm quite happy so far.


But for you guys that are more active in the management of your money, how much are you investing (average) and what kind of return are you making ?

And a very important question too, how much time every month do you spend "actively" managing your money ?

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## keda

Squabble away, fact is nobody on this board will be basing their gold position on what buttfrier says. The doom merchants have been around for millenia, and never fail to remind the naive in their audience that the routine dip the market is experiencing is actually the 'collapse' they've been predicting.

So buttfrier, let's shove the crap and play hardball...considering gold has been creating new highs only to break them while you've been predicting gloom, how far do you suppose it needs to fall and by when before you can legitimately claim to have a clue? You've been nothing but wrong so far, so take consolation that the law of averages is leaning heavily in your favour.

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## Butterfly

^ nice, another gullible gold investor  :Smile: 

as usual, you haven't read carefully what I said, but what else is new  :Razz: 

I am just saying that Gold will be for a correction as soon as key interest rates are up again, and that the number of suckers in this world being fools and buying Gold, because TV or a friend said so, is endless. So yes I don't disagree that it can reach 2,000 USD as socal predicted.

when and what day will it crash exactly ? that's impossible to say and you know it,

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## Butterfly

remember oil at 200 USD and how it will never end going up ?  :Razz: 

some of the fools like socal thought the same, but it eventually fall back to 35 USD

it's still artificially overpriced today, it will eventually revert back to the long term average of 35 USD

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## keda

> ^ nice, another gullible gold investor


Gullible I may be, and it was an unintended consequence when I was introduced to buying Krugerrands at around £50-£60 apiece with a £1.50-£2 spread from Sphinx in St James' during the late 70s when they were an otc commodity. I still own them. With other smaller purchases since, and a significant topup about 8-9 years ago shortly after coming to LoS, my bottom line would still go red if gold collapses to global economic ruin levels overnight, but as would everything else. So thanks for your concern but save it for the minions that follow you around.





> I am just saying that Gold will be for a correction as soon as key interest rates are up again, and that the number of suckers in this world being fools and buying Gold, because TV or a friend said so, is endless. So yes I don't disagree that it can reach 2,000 USD as socal predicted...


Sure gold will experience a correction, but there's no science in that; corrections occur daily around the world in every market, even though some unscrupulous people bandy the term to frighten the uninformed, or as you call them, suckers. 

As for those 'suckers' that have bought in, the only relevant numbers are at buy and sell, with everything between being no more than glitzy noise. So even if any of those 'suckers' happen to buy at the most improbable point - just before a significant correction - tough shit and they'll see a bit of red for longer, but they will still go solid green long before whatever is stored under the mattresses of their more 'informed' rivals if you had anything to do with their education. Therefore it doesn't matter if your smartly 'predicted' correction occurs tomorrow or next month if traders are not selling during that correction or investors are looking long term. Note also that corrections do not have to be mind numbing, and can occur without so much as a raised eyebrow.

Simple truth: the world has never been so uncertain, and gold is the counterweight to uncertainty. 





> when and what day will it crash exactly ? that's impossible to say and you know it,


Sorry try. I did not ask you for a specific date or time or even a price to within 10c. Great way to duck though, and much as expected, though I'm sure nobody was less impressed than me.

Unless it's really outrageous, you can have the last word since it normally belongs to you anyway.

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## socal

[quote=Butterfly;1590202]


> remember oil at 200 USD and how it will never end going up ?


Here you go, comparing gold to a consumed commodity again. 




> some of the fools like socal thought the same, but it eventually fall back to 35 USD


I don't have 5 cents invested in oil. Now though, as of today, I like oil simply because there is morons like you out there that will use oil as an inflation hedge because they don't understand gold. This guy learned that the hard way and I even made a youtube video about it.






> it's still artificially overpriced today, it will eventually revert back to the long term average of 35 USD


How long did the price stay under $60 ? A few months ?

The only reason it is overpriced is because the fed is printing too much money. Investors are using it as an inflation hedge and there is no laws against that.

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## socal

[quote=keda;1590247][quote=Butterfly;1590201]^ nice, another gullible gold investor  :Smile: 




> my bottom line would still go red if gold collapses to global economic ruin levels overnight, but as would everything else. So thanks for your concern but save it for the minions that follow you around.


Keda.

Gold is only priced in dollars. If the economy collapses to economic ruin, your gold will not go down, the dollar will. Remember when Europe was going bust this summer ? The Euro went down, not up.

Just because investors ran toward the blast in 2008 and bought the dollar, doesn't mean they will do it again. The dollar run in 2008 was a head fake, it started no long term trends. 

If people like Butterfly think that the fiat currency of a imploding economy will always rise then they must not have been paying attention to the Euro this summer. The Euro went from 1.50 to 1.19 when Greece was going broke, using Butterflys logic, the Euro should have went up to 1.65 when Greece was going broke.

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## Butterfly

> Sorry try. I did not ask you for a specific date or time or even a price to within 10c. Great way to duck though, and much as expected, though I'm sure nobody was less impressed than me.


if you can't put a date on a prediction, then why ask me or accuse me of making false predictions ?  :Razz: 

The only thing I know is that suckers will be fucked as usual, that's facts, it's a constant, and the next asset with that kind of bubble is currently Gold. It's not really Science, more like common sense, something you seem to be missing in ample terms.

What comes up fast, must come down equally fast, law of gravity  :Wink:

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## socal

> Originally Posted by keda
> 
> Sorry try. I did not ask you for a specific date or time or even a price to within 10c. Great way to duck though, and much as expected, though I'm sure nobody was less impressed than me.
> 
> 
> if you can't put a date on a prediction, then why ask me or accuse me of making false predictions ? 
> 
> The only thing I know is that suckers will be fucked as usual, that's facts, it's a constant, and the next asset with that kind of bubble is currently Gold. It's not really Science, more like common sense, something you seem to be missing in ample terms.
> 
> What comes up fast, must come down equally fast, law of gravity


I asked you about 3 months ago, where would you invest $100,000 right now ?

where where where ???

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## Butterfly

^ I told you before, hedge funds, that's where the real value is, not commodities hedge funds though  :Razz:

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## socal

> ^ I told you before, hedge funds, that's where the real value is, not commodities hedge funds though


what hedge fund ?

a hedge fund is just a pool of money run by an investor. Lets say we both have  $100,000  hedge funds. Where would you invest ?

So not commodities you say...and I know not gold. That leaves stocks, cash or bonds. You would be fully invested in bonds and cash equivalents.

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## Butterfly

> a hedge fund is just a pool of money run by an investor.


 :rofl:

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## TizMe

Seems a lot of people haven't learnt much since February 1637. Tulip mania - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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## Ripley

> Gold is only priced in dollars. If the economy collapses to economic ruin, your gold will not go down, the dollar will.


 
So doesn't this mean gold really isn't rising? 

Do you think the currency could change, to EU for example? 

Are we headed for a global currency?

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## Butterfly

> Seems a lot of people haven't learnt much since February 1637. Tulip mania - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


nope, haven't they ? that's why fools like socal are useful, they are the thermometers of investment wisdom  :Smile:

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## rangmak

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> Gold is only priced in dollars. If the economy collapses to economic ruin, your gold will not go down, the dollar will.
> 
> 
>  
> So doesn't this mean gold really isn't rising? 
> 
> ...


All commodities are sold in dollars, not just gold.  This was standardized after WWII.  If or until (I don't follow the conspiracies about this) the dollar dissolves, all will remain pinned to the dollar.  Who will decide what it is to be pinned to, if changed???  Too many chefs around the pot now for any decision to be made.

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## socal

> Originally Posted by TizMe
> 
> Seems a lot of people haven't learnt much since February 1637. Tulip mania - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
> 
> 
> nope, haven't they ? that's why fools like socal are useful, they are the thermometers of investment wisdom


says the guy that is buying bonds and holding the cash that is backed by bonds that have been going strait up for 30 years. 

Apparently a 30 year bond bull market is not a "Tulip mania" in Butterflys mind,but a 10 year bull market in gold is.

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## Butterfly

tell us about your latest gold buy ? did you hide it under your bed ?  :Smile:

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## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
> Gold is only priced in dollars. If the economy collapses to economic ruin, your gold will not go down, the dollar will.
> 
> 
>  
> So doesn't this mean gold really isn't rising? 
> 
> ...


The US Dollar/Federal reserve and the Euro/European Central Bank  have 2 different ways of dealing with gold. The Dollar/Fed has the paper gold fighting machine(COMEX,ETFs, LBMA) and the Euro marks its gold holdings to market every 3 months. (The US treasury has its gold marked at $42 per oz) 

The Bank for International Settlements started designing the Euro in 1962. They realized that they needed to create a currency that could out-live the Dollar/Fed. I will cut to the important part...

Since gold is priced in dollars, every time the dollar falls, gold rises. In order for the Euro to capture the loss in the US dollar, the ECB floats the price of gold on the asset side of its balance sheet. If the dollar falls by 50% say, gold will rise by 50%, as will the asset side of the ECB balance sheet. Allot of people think the US has the most gold but the Euro zone as a whole has more.(10,000 tons)

the Euro has a good chance of replacing the dollar.

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## Butterfly

increasing the asset side also mean increasing the liability side,

that's how they create money, as gold goes up, they can issue more "notes"

so it's really not different from what the Fed is doing, creating money through debt, using instead Gold as the exchange rate

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## socal

> increasing the asset side also mean increasing the liability side,
> 
> that's how they create money, as gold goes up, they can issue more "notes"
> 
> so it's really not different from what the Fed is doing, creating money through debt, using instead Gold as the exchange rate



You better go explain your case to the Bank for International Settlements. :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic): 

Do think I made this up ?

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## Butterfly

> Do think I made this up ?


of course not, you did a copy/paste without even understanding what they meant  :Smile: 

so the higher price of Gold is now "financing" the growth of the EURO money supply, 

awesome !!!

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## Rural Surin

> tell us about your latest gold buy ? did you hide it under your bed ?


I trust he has an official certificate to uphold the _official certificate._ Always have been curious as to how easily folks are taken in. Meaningless paper = wealth. Electronic numbers = wealth. And the more common affliction, credit = wealth.

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## Ripley

^ RS 
Would you buy gold in a Chinese Gold exchange in Bangkok?

Does anyone know anything about Canadian gold coins?

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## Butterfly

I will buy your USD for 32  :Razz:

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## Tom Sawyer

Tell you what, I'll buy property in my home country through leverage on existing feeholds, rent them out to people who can't afford to buy, and invest in more property. You guys can buy all the gold you like - and even stupider, all the corporate bonds you like.

At the end of the day, the corporate bond won't keep you dry and the gold won't fill your stomach if it loses value.

Buy property here? No thanks.

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## Rural Surin

> I will buy your USD for 32


....it's coming. Be patient, lad. :Smile:

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## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> Do think I made this up ?
> 
> 
> of course not, you did a copy/paste without even understanding what they meant 
> 
> so the higher price of Gold is now "financing" the growth of the EURO money supply, 
> 
> awesome !!!


Don't worry about it. This stuff is way over your head.

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## socal

[quote=Rural Surin;1591259]


> tell us about your latest gold buy ? did you hide it under your bed ?





> I trust he has an official certificate to uphold the _official certificate._


I own 100% physical gold and I could prove it.




> Always have been curious as to how easily folks are taken in. Meaningless paper = wealth. Electronic numbers = wealth. And the more common affliction, credit = wealth.


hahaha, the irony ! ^look what the anti gold disillusionist just said.

You just defined the US dollar.(meaningless paper,electronic numbers). 

So Rural Surin, what would you do if you had a $100,000 dollars(credit, paper, electronic numbers) to invest today ?

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## socal

> Tell you what, I'll buy property in my home country through leverage on existing feeholds, rent them out to people who can't afford to buy, and invest in more property. You guys can buy all the gold you like - and even stupider, all the corporate bonds you like.
> 
> At the end of the day, the corporate bond won't keep you dry and the gold won't fill your stomach if it loses value.
> 
> Buy property here? No thanks.


Leverage... Have you made your calculations assuming 8 to 10% interest rates ?

If there is 8 to 10% rates, a majority of people will go broke. What will happen to the currency that is backed by the debt that the people are defaulting on ? It will go down in value.(inflation)

It will be the people with gold that are buying up all the property in that scenario. 

And 10% interest rates(bond prices falling) could never happen right...Never.  :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

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## Tom Sawyer

^
That's when ya hike the rent 10% mate.

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## socal

> ^
> That's when ya hike the rent 10% mate.


Nope, thats not how markets work.

 the renters are not going to pay more for rent when the cost of housing is going down.(interest rates up=house prices down.)

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## Tom Sawyer

^
You're assuming they've all found the money to buy again.

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## keda

> Originally Posted by Butterfly
> 
> 
> I will buy your USD for 32 
> 
> 
> ....it's coming. Be patient, lad.


Be very patient...it's heading for 29, then 28, then buttfrier can work out the next number as he waits for 32.

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## keda

> ^
> That's when ya hike the rent 10% mate.


Yep, and a bit for admin if the council's paying.

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## TizMe

> There is no possible mathematical way that gold can crash in the next 10 years.


How can the current gold boom possibly be any different from any other past booms (and busts)?

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## Butterfly

> You're assuming they've all found the money to buy again.


indeed, during property crash it's not unusual to see renting going up, so at the end your yield is boosted by the decreasing asset value and the extra income you can squeeze from former home owners

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## Tom Sawyer

Yep - I recall that's exactly what happened in the early-mid 80's - as mortgage rates hit 20%.

And Socal will love this...those high interest rates coincided with the collapse in gold price. One could make far more in the bank on simple interest than stuffing gold bars inside their mattress.

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## Butterfly

the only reason you have Gold going up is for speculative reason, doesn't matter about the Fundamental, they don't justify those price levels

same with Oil, there was no fundamental to push oil above 100 despite what certain individuals were claiming, it was all hype

it's not an incident that all the scams these days are in Gold, or Gold related securities. Even the evil doers of Faux are into it. That alone is a signal that you are dealing with a marketing hype.

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## Tom Sawyer

As Rockefeller once famously said (roughly), when the elevator concierge tells you he has a hot tip on a stock to buy, you will know it's time to sell...everything

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## socal

> ^
> You're assuming they've all found the money to buy again.


Prices will fall until a buyer and a seller agree on a price. In a case where interest rates go up and allot of people go broke, there could be houses given away as long as the property taxes are paid.

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## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> There is no possible mathematical way that gold can crash in the next 10 years.
> 
> 
> How can the current gold boom possibly be any different from any other past booms (and busts)?


The bubble is in the currency you are pricing gold in. It is not any different in this case because like usual, the general public doesn't understand. 

Notice how everyone is experts and booms and busts now ? The general public thinks they have it figured out so they are staying in cash and cash equivalents because they believe that is safe. That is the bubble.

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## socal

> Yep - I recall that's exactly what happened in the early-mid 80's - as mortgage rates hit 20%.
> 
> And Socal will love this...those high interest rates coincided with the collapse in gold price. One could make far more in the bank on simple interest than stuffing gold bars inside their mattress.


Yep, that is what it took to convince people that the fiat dollar was worth buying again, 20% interest rates. In case you didn't notice, gold has everything to do with interest rates, it was no coincidence. Buying treasuries at 20% yield was like buying BP stock at 10% yield just after the oil spill. There was risk in the investment, that is why yields  where high in both cases. (That is why you buy gold now, rates are at 0%)

Why would you bother renting out houses that are cratering in value when you could get a better yield just having the money in the bank at 20% interest ?

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## socal

> As Rockefeller once famously said (roughly), when the elevator concierge tells you he has a hot tip on a stock to buy, you will know it's time to sell...everything


^another guy completely blinded to the fact that world reserve currency denominated bonds have been going up in value for 30 strait years. That's what bubbles are made of, total blindness.

You don't even have the last bubble out of your head yet, you are still investing in housing. Thats like expecting internet stocks to be the best investment after 2001.

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## Tom Sawyer

Look how fast Gold falls when conditions change. Look at 1979 - From a peak of 800+ down to 500 in just a few months. A year or two later and it was trading just off 300. For the next 22 years it traded between 300-450 on average. Gold is a hedge, and when conditions change (the ones that made people buy gold in the first place) so too does the value - and fast.



Source: BBC

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## Butterfly

^ stop using logic, fools are fools and they love to be fools  :Razz:

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## socal

> Look how fast Gold falls when conditions change. Look at 1979 - From a peak of 800+ down to 500 in just a few months. A year or two later and it was trading just off 300. For the next 22 years it traded between 300-450 on average. Gold is a hedge, and when conditions change (the ones that made people buy gold in the first place) so too does the value - and fast.
> 
> 
> 
> Source: BBC


The average person does not understand the macro environment we are in. Just remember that gold never goes below its old lows. People like BF thought 45 dollar gold was overpriced and thought it would go to 20. No different then the people in the late 60s,70s  that thought 300 gold was stupid and thought it would go back to 150. You cant say that about intenet stocks, tulips, railway bonds, or any other so called boom and bust.  

I don't think the comparison you made to the 80s are relevant. If you know what I mean.....

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## Butterfly

putting all kind of silly graphs on concept you obviously do not understand doesn't take away the fact that Gold is currently in a bubble cycle

the only question that remains about Gold is when to sell, not when to buy

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## robuzo

^It (comparison made to the 80s) isn't relevant.  If US interest rates go up gold is going to be worth more _US dollars_, obviously.  

The macro economic is very, very weird right now, in fact based on my admittedly limited knowledge of economic history that the current situation is unprecedented.  I still think gold is a good hedge with some good arguments for a lot of upside, but that certain other commodities, like oil, might be even better.  What is a barrel of oil priced in USD going to cost when (if) gold hits USD2000?  And all the while one is holding those oil company shares they are paying dividends, while physical gold is just sitting there, looking pretty.

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## socal

> putting all kind of silly graphs on concept you obviously do not understand doesn't take away the fact that Gold is currently in a bubble cycle
> 
> the only question that remains about Gold is when to sell, not when to buy


 :smiley laughing: 

sell and buy what ? 

You still have no strait answer to where you would invest 100k right now. :mid: 

right....you said hedge funds but you dont know what those are. Surgar hit a 30 year high today, wheat is up 60% in three months. Do you think those are asset bubbles too or maybe it has more to do with the currency they are priced in......maybe.....just maybe.....

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## socal

> ^It (comparison made to the 80s) isn't relevant.  If US interest rates go up gold is going to be worth more _US dollars_, obviously.  
> 
> The macro economic is very, very weird right now, in fact based on my admittedly limited knowledge of economic history that the current situation is unprecedented.  I still think gold is a good hedge with some good arguments for a lot of upside, but that certain other commodities, like oil, might be even better.  What is a barrel of oil priced in USD going to cost when (if) gold hits USD2000?  And all the while one is holding those oil company shares they are paying dividends, while physical gold is just sitting there, looking pretty.


Whether its oil companies in your case, farm land in ripleys case, rental houses in Tomwhatevers case or US treasuries in Butterknownothings case, it is clear to me that everyone hates gold. Nobody understands it and nobody is buying it. Even people that have made money on it dont like it. That is not the sentiment that makes up an asset bubble. :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic): 

Gold is cheap.

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## Blake7

Silver looks a better buy right now than gold

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## Butterfly

> you said hedge funds but you dont know what those are.


 :rofl: 




> Surgar hit a 30 year high today, wheat is up 60% in three months. Do you think those are asset bubbles too


yep  :Smile: 

only if you understood the mechanics behind commodities futures and what they represent in the last few years  :Smile: 




> Nobody understands it and nobody is buying it.


obviously someone is buying, and yes, it doesn't mean he understand it

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## robuzo

> Originally Posted by robuzo
> 
> 
> ^It (comparison made to the 80s) isn't relevant.  If US interest rates go up gold is going to be worth more _US dollars_, obviously.  
> 
> The macro economic is very, very weird right now, in fact based on my admittedly limited knowledge of economic history that the current situation is unprecedented.  I still think gold is a good hedge with some good arguments for a lot of upside, but that certain other commodities, like oil, might be even better.  What is a barrel of oil priced in USD going to cost when (if) gold hits USD2000?  And all the while one is holding those oil company shares they are paying dividends, while physical gold is just sitting there, looking pretty.
> 
> 
> Whether its oil companies in your case, farm land in ripleys case, rental houses in Tomwhatevers case or US treasuries in Butterknownothings case, it is clear to me that everyone hates gold. Nobody understands it and nobody is buying it. Even people that have made money on it dont like it. That is not the sentiment that makes up an asset bubble.
> ...


In my case I won't say more than that you have come to the wrong conclusion.  I just am not putting all my eggs in one basket.  I like gold as a hedge.  I think oil has more upside, but am not betting everything on that, either.

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## Tom Sawyer

> putting all kind of silly graphs on concept you obviously do not understand doesn't take away the fact that Gold is currently in a bubble cycle
> 
> the only question that remains about Gold is when to sell, not when to buy


As much as I think BF is a faggy moron, he's nailed this. This bubble will pop once a currency stabilizes - whether USD, Euro, YEN, RMB - or more likely a combination of all. Be well clear of gold when that appears to be happening. Oh, and is anyone stupid enough to think that those who have the power to stabilize these currencies aren't WAY AHEAD OF YOU and manipulating things?

Pyramid Power..101.

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## robuzo

> Silver looks a better buy right now than gold


That's the odd thing, silver always _looks_ better, and makes a lot more sense, but it seems a lot harder to predict.

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## socal

[quote=Tom Sawyer;1594619]


> putting all kind of silly graphs on concept you obviously do not understand doesn't take away the fact that Gold is currently in a bubble cycle
> 
> the only question that remains about Gold is when to sell, not when to buy





> As much as I think BF is a faggy moron, he's nailed this. This bubble will pop once a currency stabilizes - whether USD, Euro, YEN, RMB


You have it backwards. The bubble is in the fiat currency you are pricing gold in. The chaos in the currency markets has not even happened yet. 




> - or more likely a combination of all


You forgot the most important currency, gold. 
.


> Be well clear of gold when that appears to be happening.


be well clear of cash and bonds when that 30 year bubble bursts. Gold is the best place to hide.




> Oh, and is anyone stupid enough to think that those who have the power to stabilize these currencies aren't WAY AHEAD OF YOU and manipulating things?
> 
> Pyramid Power..101


Reminds me of the Soviet Union. 

There is not one big happy family of world leaders out there that have everything under control.

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## Butterfly

explain to us how Gold is a currency again ?  ::chitown:: 

can I buy my grocery with Gold ? of course not  :Smile:

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## socal

> explain to us how Gold is a currency again ? 
> 
> can I buy my grocery with Gold ? of course not


Cotton hit an all time high today, so did the Aussy dollar. Are they in bubbles too ?

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## Butterfly

can I buy Gold with cotton ?  :Razz: 

can I buy oil with Gold ?

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## baby maker

_Well this has been an interesting read, though admittedly i only skimmed it..._
_i really shouldn't comment as i know fuck all about the subject, it having been the way i made my living and educated my children over the last thirty years..._

_....the key is the currencies, notably the USD, as it is the reserve currency of the world...._

_too much bad paper [read: bonds, debt, money [which is debt] gold, silver etc] chasing low yield in a deflationary environment, or a deleveraging environment....._

_so gents.....when there is a shit load of paper [and more to come]...what is the obvious outcome...._

_[Germany post WW1...good for lighting fires...._
_Confederate currency...a keep sake....sentimental value..._
_and others to numerous to mention....._ ]

for my part the answer is obvious, since QE2 has been gaining acceptance...
and my forayes over time have been into physical gold, equities, bonds, commercial paper, options, commodities, livestock, real estate.....

shit i bought and sold everything but drugs, women and guns...
correction.....bought a few women....but never sold any....

just sit down and look at it calmly......and the answer is obvious....

doesn't mean any of us are going to like it....every man is his own mechanic..

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