#  >  > Living And Legal Affairs In Thailand >  >  > Thailand and Asia News >  >  > Business, Finance & Economics in Thailand >  >  Thailand to suffer most in economic crisis

## larvidchr

*"Thailand to suffer most from crisis*

 By: BangkokPost.comPublished: 24/02/2009 at 12:21 PM Thailand will likely suffer the most from the global economic crisis in Asia, according to forecast of Moody's Analytics.
 The forecast was made after the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) revealed that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of last year fell 4.3 per cent while the industrial output shrank 22.3 per cent when compared to the same period of 2007.

Moreover, the demands for electronics, electrical appliances, automobiles and other industrial products went down, and the plummeting agricultural product prices severely affected the export sector.

The tourism industry lost a significant amount of revenue after the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) blockaded Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports last year. Public spending also declined while foreign investors became more hesitant to do businesses in the country due to continuing political uncertainties."


The ludicrous idea that the millions of Thais that moved from rural areas to the metropols to make a living, just can go back to farming is nothing but fantasy, there is a reason for the migration to city centres by millions in 3 world Country's, the land could not provide a viable living. Thailand is going to hurt and I feel very sorry for the millions of Thais with no security net.

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## larvidchr

*NESDB: Thai recession likely* 

*January saw deepest export fall in 18 years*

By: CHATRUDEE THEPARAT  Published: 24/02/2009 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: Business The country's economy shrank more than expected in the fourth quarter last year, as exports and tourism slumped, with growth this year forecast between -1% and 0% due to the lingering global recession.
 The National Economic and Social Development Board revealed yesterday Thailand's economy in the last three months of 2008 contracted by 4.3%. 
 It is the first contraction in 10 years since the aftershocks of the 1997 crisis.
 The Thai economy grew 2.6% in 2008, a substantial drop from 4.9% in 2007.
 The agency said the economy may contract as much as 1% in 2009 due to sharp drops in exports and tourism falloff with global recession. It previously forecast growth of as much as 4%.
 "The global economy is moving into a recession and Thailand, like other countries, has been hard hit and the situation is worse than expected," the board's secretary-general Ampon Kittiampon said yesterday.
 The decline was due to declines in exports, tourism and production.
 "The Thai economy is likely to slip further in the first quarter of this year. We may see the worst figure in the second quarter before it climbs in the second half," Mr Ampon said.
 The final quarter of 2009 would be a "turning point" for the Thai economy, as the government's 117-billion-baht supplementary budget for fiscal 2009 starts taking effect, he said.
 "The budget injection in May should boost the Thai economy slightly at the end of the second quarter or early in the third quarter," he said. "The economy needs to grow by 4-5% in the final quarter if we want to see zero growth in GDP in 2009."
 Dr Ampon said despite sluggish export and tourism sectors, the agency still projects greater domestic consumption will help the Thai economy. 
 Overall consumption was projected to grow 3.1%, with private consumption up 2% and government consumption increasing 8.3%.
 According to the government's planning agency, Thai exports were likely to contract by 13.1% this year, with imports dipping by 14%.
 NESDB projected the trade balance was estimated at US$1.8 billion with inflation projected at 0.5% to minus 0.5%, down from 2.5-3.5% in the previous projection.
 The unemployment rate was projected at 2.5-3.5% of the total workforce, or 950,000-1.3 million, an increase from 1.5-2.5% in an earlier projection.
 Sompob Manarungsan, an economist at Chulalongkorn University, said the Thai economy this year is likely to contract by more than the NESDB projection because of export slowdown and a reduction in asset values.
 He said the government's plans to stimulate domestic consumption and government spending would deliver only a slight impact to the Thai economy, as government expenditure accounts for just 20% of the economy.
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## larvidchr

Makes you wonder what dimension the so called, in the know Thais are living in, until very recently the mantra still was "this crisis is not going to affect Thailand" ??

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## Loy Toy

> By: BangkokPost.comPublished: 24/02/2009 at 12:21 PM Thailand will likely suffer the most from the global economic crisis in Asia, according to forecast of Moody's Analytics.


Of course Thailand will be the most affected because the currency is obscenely overvalued and when compared to neigbouring competition.

Buy the same products at a rate of 46 pescos to the dollar or 35!

Whats a trader too do?

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## baldrick

larvidchr , I see your signature and think of this

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## robuzo

I think a lot of Thais can go back to farms- the emptying out of the farms was in some cases due to poor soil and water conditions (in Isaan), but also because the factory jobs were so much better in terms of generating income.  A couple of things would help the farmers out here; put a stop to cheap Chinese imports of food, and put a stop to the mostly Sino-Thai middlemen taking the lion's share for doing next to nothing.

I wonder less about what the poor are going to do, because after all their survival (shall we call "subsistence" what it really is, or is that lese majeste?) skills are fairly well-developed, and their expectations probably never got too high (i.e., they expect to be fucked over).  How about the middle-class urbanites?  What the hell are they going to do in an economy gone south?

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## Mid

^^^^ #3
'zactly  :rofl:

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## mrsquirrel

I don't get how they have stayed so strong yet here in Kimchistan another export driven economy they got hammered.

Why has the baht hung on so long. 

Is it purely down to government meddling fingers?

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## robuzo

> Makes you wonder what dimension the so called, in the know Thais are living in, until very recently the mantra still was "this crisis is not going to affect Thailand" ??


Dimension Thai!  Yeah, when I look at them where I live in Thonglor or at the Paragon mall where I took my kid this morning (to see the fish) I can't help by marvel at how  feckless and clueless the upper and upper middles appear here.  This crisis is going to breed a ton of resentment, at possibly the most inopportune time in recent Thai history.

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## robuzo

> I don't get how they have stayed so strong yet here in Kimchistan another export driven economy they got hammered.
> 
> Why has the baht hung on so long. 
> 
> Is it purely down to government meddling fingers?


In terms of export value I expect Korea is losing more, plus they have further to fall.  While exports are obviously important, the primary driver of Thai economic growth has been foreign investment (as it was pre-1996), which is not the case in Korea.  When Thailand falls, it may not fall far but I expect it is going to fall hard.

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## larvidchr

> larvidchr , I see your signature and think of this


Me to, good old "Hagard" as we call him, and his lovely sweet wife, I love him (not in a gay sense)  :rofl:

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## Spin

> Of course Thailand will be the most affected because the currency is obscenely overvalued and when compared to neigbouring competition.


Tarisa at the bank of Thailand disagrees.....

Tarisa says weaker baht won't help
By: PARISTA YUTHAMANOP 


Any move to weaken the baht to help exports would ultimately prove futile, according to Tarisa Watanagase, the governor of the Bank of Thailand. The government this week suggested current exchange rates may be hurting Thailand's export competitiveness. Exports in January recorded their biggest decline in a decade with a 26.5% year-on-year contraction to $10.49 billion.

But Dr Tarisa said exchange rates had been less of a factor in export performance than the decline in demand from the United States, Japan and Europe.

A central bank study found that Thai exports would fall 1.6% for a 1% decline in economic growth for key trading partners. Every 1% decline in the value of the baht would only lift exports by 0.2%.

The baht has remained relatively stable in recent months, closing yesterday at 35.50 to the dollar. For the year to date, it has fallen 0.7%, and by 3% from 2008.

Dr Tarisa said the baht was ''in the middle of the range comparing to regional currencies'', and added that export competitiveness should not be considered only in terms of exchange rates.

The baht's competitiveness in real terms had actually improved, with the real effective exchange rate falling to 87.16 in December from 89.91 in November when indexed against 20 currencies of trade partners and competitors.

Dr Tarisa, speaking at a forum held by the Sasin Graduate Institute of Business Administration, said the rapid decline in inflation in the second half of 2008 had significantly cut business costs.

In any case, the impact of the global downturn was affecting the entire region.

''Many other countries have already experienced [steep] declines in exports. Now, we are recording a worse decline than others,'' she said. ''As a matter of fact, [the export declines] are a surprise for the region, as there was the thought that the rise in intra-regional trade could save exports. Now we know that this hope has dimmed. Our exports to China have dropped quickly in recent months.''

Pramon Suthiwong, the chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, warned that the government should consider the potential increase in social disruption and stress from rising unemployment.

Migrant workers are another potential issue, he said, considering that there were two million legal immigrants registered in Thailand and an unknown number of illegal workers"

from the Bangkok Post.

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## killerbees

> I wonder less about what the poor are going to do, because after all their survival (shall we call "subsistence" what it really is, or is that lese majeste?) skills are fairly well-developed, and their expectations probably never got too high (i.e., they expect to be fucked over). How about the middle-class urbanites? What the hell are they going to do in an economy gone south?


Right. The poor are accustomed to fishing in klongs and don't mind hunting around at night for large insects and other perfectly viable forms of protein. Middle- and upper-class denizens of Bangkok most likely wouldn't have a clue how to "subsist" but may one day be forced to emulate their northeastern cousins instead of looking down their noses at them. 

The writing's on the wall, it seems, but when's the shit going to hit the fan?

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## Escapeeeeeee

Well Thailand can't be any worse that Germany where I have lived and worked for the past 10 years, as that has really gone to shit. Bankrupt banks, manufacturing and engineering dead and complete collapse on the cards. That's why I have escaped!!!

Thailand can't be worse - surely!!!???

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## Mid

wanta hear one about the frying pan and the fire ?

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## Escapeeeeeee

Hmmm. Anyway, its warmer here.

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## watterinja

> Tarisa Watanagase


Sounds like a right old gas bag...

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## Norton

> The writing's on the wall, it seems, but when's the shit going to hit the fan?


Tick, tock, tick tock..............The fit is about to hit the sham.

It will be soon and it won't be gradual.  Never is here in the land of denial.  Expect to see a collapse which will occur over about a two week period with each pillar of the economy tumbling down like a row of dominoes.  Third or fourth quarter of this year would be my guess.  Maybe as soon as 2 July. :Wink:

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## larvidchr

*BOT may cut policy interest rate*

 By: BangkokPost.comPublished: 25/02/2009 at 10:59 AM The Bank of Thailand (BOT)'s Monetary Policy Committee held a meeting on Wednesday to consider cutting the policy interest rate by 0.50 to 0.75 per cent to ease the economic crisis.
 The meeting will take into account the economic figures released by the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), the central bank revealed.

According to the NESDB, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2008 fell 4.3 per cent while the import and export sectors also contracted 38 per cent and 26 per cent respectively.

The policy interest rate would likely be slashed by 0.50 to 0.75 per cent, not one per cent as the Fiscal Policy Office predicted since it was already reduced earlier.

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## Mid

cuts a given ,

question is how much .

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## larvidchr

Here is an interesting quote from the Thailand crisis blog:
Thailand Crisis


"In Thailand, the morons are very proud of the plan “2000 THB for 8 millions or 9 millions people”… They think it’s going to “start up” the economy… Like Bush with his “stimulus check” last spring…
 It’s just _derisory_. It will make a fart, a blip on the GDP on Q2.
 It’s not sure yet of course. But more and more, the picture appears clearly : we have an unprecedented crisis, because of its _scale_, its _globality_ (all the countries), its _simultaneity_ and… its _duration_.
 The politicians can’t imagine a _long_ crisis.
 For them, it’s the real nightmare scenario."

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## Mid

> It will make a fart, a blip on the GDP on Q2


bet it don't even do that .

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## Butterfly

there is "multiplier effect" with spending, so those 2,000 THB might have some substantial impact if everything else is equal, but since it won't be equal, the 2,000 THB "donation" might be a bit late.

Next plan for the poor: go to the Reds demonstration for 2000 THB a week,

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## Mid

Thai Central Bank Cuts Policy Rate 50 Basis Points To 1.50%

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## larvidchr

*BoT cuts rate to 1.5%*

*SCB cuts savings deposit rate to 0.5%* 

By: PARISTA YUTHAMANOP Published: 26/02/2009 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: Business The Bank of Thailand cut short-term interest rates by a half of a percentage point yesterday as part of its ongoing efforts to jumpstart the economy.
 The rate cut brings the one-day repurchase policy rate to 1.5% from 2%. Over the past three months, the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has cut rates by 2.25 percentage points in an effort to spur growth.
 Siam Commercial Bank, the country's fourth-largest, became the first Thai bank to announce a rate cut in response to the MPC measure, with a 0.25 percentage point cut in lending and deposit rates that also covered savings deposits.
 "The ongoing global financial crisis resulted in a marked slowdown in world economic growth with high uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook," the MPC said in a statement.
 "The sharp decline in external demand adversely affected regional countries including Thailand through a marked contraction in exports. In addition, domestic demand remained weak, while the impact of measures to stimulate the economy will take some time to come into full effect."
 The MPC said risks to growth continued to increase while inflation was expected to decline. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, could fall below the MPC's target "during certain periods of this year".
 "The MPC therefore viewed that monetary policy could be eased further to support economic recovery and to safeguard price stability going forward," the committee said.
 Duangmanee Vongpradhip, a central bank assistant governor, said current forecasts of growth of zero to 2% this year could be revised downward as the global economy deteriorated.
 But she rebutted a report by Moody's Economy.com that suggested Thailand was among the worst performing economies in the region, with the fourth quarter of 2008 falling at an annualised rate of 22%.
 "The Thai economy should be viewed from the point that it contracted 4.3% year-on-year and 6.1% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of last year. And it was not the worst performer in the region," Mrs Duangmanee said.
 She said the economy could grow on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the first quarter, although full-year figures may be negative.
 But Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said yesterday that the first quarter could be "even worse" than the fourth quarter of 2008, as the global economy continued to deteriorate hurting Thai exports.
 He said the government was focused on encouraging domestic demand to compensate for falling exports, and that the target in any case was to maintain positive growth for the year.
 Mrs Duangmanee said the central bank expected increases in public spending and gains in net trade due to falling imports would help the economy pick up from the fourth quarter of 2008.
 The central bank expected the economy to start recording positive year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter, she said.
 "The monetary easing continues to pursue a front-loaded path. The degree in interest rate cuts this time is on par with the past two rounds in December and January," Ms Duangmanee said.
 Commercial banks cut deposit rates by 130 basis points and lending rates by 75 basis points the past few months.
 "We hope that the economy follows our signal and reduces interest rates to reduce business financing costs. The short-term bond rate has been lower. However, the large base of term-deposits remain a significant cost for banks," Mrs Duangmanee said.
 Siam Commercial Bank, meanwhile, announced that effective tomorrow, it would cut deposit and loan rates by 25 basis points, bringing minimum loan rates to 6.25%, minimum overdraft rates to 6.5% and minimum retail rates to 6.75%.
 Savings deposit rates were cut to 0.5% from 0.75%, the first reduction in such rates by a Thai bank in a decade. Three-month fixed deposit rates for balances under five million baht were also cut to 0.75%, with larger balances set at 1% per year.
 Other banks are expected to soon follow SCB with their own rate cuts.
 Mrs Duangmanee said the one-day policy rate, in real terms, actually stood at 1.9%, as inflation rates were expected to turn negative.
 She said core inflation could drop below the MPC's target of 0.5% to 3% this year, although this was part of government efforts to reduce expenses for households.

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## larvidchr

Some shocking numbers here-


"CONSTRUCTION 
*Contractors say industry value could halve in 2009*

 By: PORNNALAT PRACHYAKORNPublished: 26/02/2009 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: Business The value of Thailand's construction industry is set to plunge by about 50% this year _ to 320 billion baht from 650 billion in 2008 _ due to a steep drop in both public and private investment, according to Thai Contractors Association (TCA) president Polpat Karnasuta.
 Public investment in the construction industry is forecast to sink to 160 billion baht in 2009, down *27.2%* from 220 billion baht last year. Worse is expected from the private sector, where investment may plummet to 160 billion baht,* 64.4%* below 450 billion last year.
 Aungsurus Areekul, the association's secretary-general, said Commerce Ministry figures show 2,904 construction and property companies shut last year, of which 600 were construction firms.
 But the association estimates unofficially that about* 3,000 construction companies closed* and that around 32,000 registered firms are still in operation.
 He said design companies had also experienced a drop of about 70% in the value of their business due to the development of projects being delayed until the middle of next year.
 The association anticipates that about* 1.6 million workers* will be unemployed this year. But it expects layoffs to come in short-term construction projects, whose workers can return to agriculture.
 Mr Polpat said the construction industry last year had been affected by high steel prices. These dropped in the last quarter of 2008, causing problems for construction firms that had stocked steel against price fluctuation. The industry was then hit by the global economic crisis along with local political and economic uncertainties.
 The association urged the government to approve investments in all sizes of projects nationwide to use the construction industry to drive the economy. The projects could include road construction, water reservoirs, schools and hospitals."

1.6 million unemployed in the construction industry alone then we can start adding all the other sectors !

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## Mid

> *SCB cuts savings deposit rate to 0.5%*


never cut the morgage repayment though .....................

Bangkok Post : No reduction in SCB mortgage loan rate

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## larvidchr

And so the panic sets in Thais reducing price *50%*!!!


*50% discounts to woo buyers*

*Sellers face losses but will save costs* 

By: KANANA KATHARANGSIPORN Published: 26/02/2009 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: Business Three condominium developers and a group of investors plan to offer discounts of up to 50% in a grand sale with an aim to speed up project sales closings, liquidate firms and manage costs, according to Supachai Chammanovong, vice-president of the property broker and consultant Harrison.
  Saint Louis Grand Terrace will have 15 units on offer. Other projects with discounted units include [at]City Sukhumvit 101/1 from Siam Home Development, Waterford Sukhumvit 50 from Waterford Property, andThe Master Centrium Asoke fromP.A.J. Enterprise.

 Sellers believe that the discount strategy will draw attention to the project sites where price reductions of 20-50% would be offered, he said.
 The projects include [at]City Sukhumvit 101/1 from Siam Home Development, Waterford Sukhumvit 50 from Waterford Property, and The Master Centrium Asoke from P.A.J. Enterprise, offering 80, 70 and 20 units respectively in the fair to be held on March 28 and 29 at their sites.
 There will be also 15 units at Saint Louis Grand Terrace offered by an undisclosed group of investors who earlier bought a wholesale lot of 42 remaining units from the developer Metrostar Property. All 185 units are complete and ready to move in but only 30 would be offered at half price.
 Sahatchai Kwancheun, a vice-president at Harrison and a representative of the investor group, said the sellers might face small losses. However, he said they felt it was better than keeping the units longer and paying maintenance and possible renovation costs.
 "Developers typically want to sell units as soon as possible if they are nearly complete. Many of them need to offer a discount price to liquidate the assets and get money for new project investment."
 Mr Supachai said the participating projects were more than 80% sold so the developers had already reached the break-even point.
 "If demand exceeds supply, it should be the sellers' chance to get a better price," he said.
 The half-price units would be offered at a starting price and open for two hours of bidding, for which each project site will set its own bidding date.
 Harrison last year recorded 9.5 billion baht worth of sales and expects a 30% decrease to 6.5 billion this year due to the economic slowdown.
 Siam Commercial Bank will offer special financing at the fair, with an interest rate of 2% for one year, followed by the minimum lending rate (MLR) minus -0.50% afterwards, and mortgage loan of 100% of the appraised price for physicians and academics with the position of at least assistant professor.
 "Those highly educated or highly paid applicants with an A-grade credit score will have higher repayment capability and less risk of becoming non-performing accounts," said Dumri Vimolsathit, an SCB vice-president.
 "It's been a policy we have applied since last year to reduce NPLs, get regular interest and offer other services to this target group."
 For other customers, the rates will be between 2.75% and 3.25% for one year and MLR -0.75% afterward.

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## Butterfly

> Some shocking numbers here


not really, to be expected, and frankly needed. Too many silly construction projects,

Incidentally some properties company are still reporting great earnings,

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## Rural Surin

> Originally Posted by larvidchr
> 
> Some shocking numbers here
> 
> 
> not really, to be expected, and frankly needed. Too many silly construction projects,
> 
> Incidentally some properties company are still reporting great earnings,


Yeah. That's what we need. More empty and dormant super luxury hotels and office towers....

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## Norton

Was in BKK a couple of days ago.  It looks like all construction activity on the huge Regent Hotel/Condo building at Suk Soi 13 has completely stopped.  Anyone have an idea as to why?

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## larvidchr

> Originally Posted by larvidchr
> 
> Some shocking numbers here
> 
> 
> not really, to be expected, *and frankly needed. Too many silly construction projects,
> * 
> Incidentally some properties company are still reporting great earnings,


I don't disagree with that, it's true, the adventure is over for now, but it is still hard for the people loosing their job's

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## larvidchr

> larvidchr , I see your signature and think of this


Maybe you are right, it is a bit to serious and sinister, so time for change  :Smile:

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## larvidchr

*FPO: Flat growth most likely scenario* 

 By: WICHIT CHANTANUSORNSIRI Published: 27/02/2009 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: Business The Thai economy is likely to post flat growth this year, as export revenues have fallen sharply due to the global economic crisis, according to the Fiscal Policy Office.
 The new estimate of zero growth is a sharp retreat from earlier targets of zero to 2%, and comes after the National Economic and Social Development Board announced this week that the fourth quarter of 2008 showed a contraction of 4.3% year-on-year.
 Somchai Sujjapongse, the FPO director-general, said yesterday that 2% growth this year was still a possibility, assuming that stimulus measures in Thailand and the world proved successful in turning around the global economy.
 With 70% of gross domestic product reliant on exports, Thailand's economy is highly dependent on world trends.
 Dr Somchai said the more likely prospect was flat growth in 2009.
 But he warned the economy would likely post a higher contraction in the first quarter than in the fourth quarter of 2008, due both to the global downturn and high base effects last year.
 The contraction would likely continue through the second quarter, before turning around late in the year as stimulus measures take effect.
 "We need to hold on to the strengths within the economy to help pass through this crisis," Dr Somchai said.
 He pointed to relatively low unemployment of 1.4% or 500,000 people, the strong profitability and capital position of the financial sector, low inflation and the central bank's plentiful reserve position of as much as $110 billion as key positives for the economy.
 While non-performing loans in the banking sector remained relatively low at 5% total, a long recession could lead to lower asset quality for local banks.
 The government has announced a wide-reaching credit-guarantee programme and raised capital for local state-owned banks to help ensure that credit continues to reach exporters and small businesses even as commercial banks tighten their lending standards.
 Ekniti Nitithanprapat, the FPO spokesman, said the agency's previous growth forecasts were based on 1% growth for the country's 14 key trading partners.
 "But based on the latest estimates, we see these 14 countries now posting growth this year of -1% to -3%," he said.
 "Every one percentage point decline in growth for our trading partners will affect Thailand's own economic growth by one to 1.03 percentage points."
 Details on the latest economic forecasts by the FPO are available at Ë¹éÒËÅÑ¡ : ÊÓ¹Ñ¡§Ò¹àÈÃÉ°¡Ô¨¡ÒÃ¤ÅÑ§: Fiscal Policy Office.

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## Mid

what happened to the second half recovery ?  :mid:

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## Spin

This is good but I'm not making any comment.

*Pornthiva optimistic about export*

Commerce Minister Pornthiva Nakasai on Thursday said she still hopes this year's export growth would be between zero and three per cent albeit many agencies forecast that it would face a negative growth.

*The Ministry of Commerce would not lose face even if exports may fall because the ministry will continue working to its potential and will not be discouraged, according to Mrs Pornthiva*.

If the government adjusts some regulations and facilitates traders, the export figures should grow as initially projected, the minister said, adding that Thai commerce officials stationed overseas were assigned to conduct in-depth marketing reports and monitor foreign markets closely.

*She said there are still new markets for Thai products to explore after imports in the United States plunged because of the economic crisis.*

Besides the US and Chinese markets, Thai exporters can still penetrate other markets in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), she said.

Thailand gained US$4.7 billion worth of export orders from the CIS region in 2008, 81 per cent higher than its previous year.
source

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## Mid

> *The Ministry of Commerce would not lose face even if exports may fall because the ministry will continue working to its potential and will not be discouraged, according to Mrs Pornthiva.*





OMG   :rofl:  :rofl:  :rofl:

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## Mid

HR's report should read : _challenged in current position_  :rofl:

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## Mid

> If the government adjusts some regulations and facilitates traders,


cook the books and pay the kick-backs  :rofl:

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## Mid

> Commonwealth of Independent States


had to google that one 

The *Commonwealth of Independent States* (*CIS*) (Russian: Содружество Независимых Государств, СНГ, (transliterated _Sodruzhestvo Nezavisimykh Gosudarstv, SNG_)) is a regional organization whose participating countries are former Soviet Republics.

Commonwealth of Independent States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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## Spin

I'm feeling embarrased for them now. I'm gonna try and stop railing on them, its just not fair, its like picking on the kids who went to school "on that other bus".

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## Mid

fok 'em

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## helge

> HR's report should read : _challenged in current position_


Oh, yes, and maybe the happy days of outsoursing is over.

Bangkok rated second riskies hub only behind Bogota.
CIOs reconsidering India's offshore appeal - CIO UK Magazine
Details on page 2

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## larvidchr

Good link Helge, I think it is worth showing some of it directly-


*The 25 Riskiest Outsourcing Hubs in the World* 
   (Rankings based on mean scores in ten areas of risk as reported by The Brown-Wilson Group "2009: The Year of Outsourcing Dangerously".) 
   1. Bogota, Columbia
2. Bangkok, Thailand
3. Johannesburg, South Africa
4. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
5. Kingston, Jamaica
6. Delhi/Noida/Gurgaon, India
7. Manila/Cebu/Makita, Philippines
8. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
9. Mumbai, India
10. Jerusalem, Israel
11. Curitiba, Brazil
12. Dalian, China
13. Juarez, Mexico
14. Brasilia, Brazil
15. Chandigarh, India
16. Colombo, Sri Lanka
17. Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
18. Quezon City, Philippines
19. Accra, Ghana
20. Pune, India
21. Chennai, India
22. Hanoi, Vietnam
23. Bangalore, India
24. Hyderabad, India
25. Kolkata, India 



And these are the reasons cited for Bangkok/Thailand-



*Unsecured or unprotected networks and infrastructure* 
   1. Bogota, Colombia
2. Bangkok, Thailand
3. Kingston, Jamaica 



*Unstable currency* 
   1. Bangkok, Thailand
2. Bogota, Colombia
3. Johannesburg, South Africa 



*Personal crime rate/police-to-citizen ratio* 
   1. Bangkok, Thailand
2. Johannesburg, South Africa
3. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 



*legal system immaturity* 

1. Bangkok, Thailand
2. Bogota, Colombia
3. Kingston, Jamaica

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## robuzo

^^The "personal crime rate" is just not that bad here (although that may change).  Makes me question their other determinations.

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## Butterfly

> 10. Jerusalem, Israel


that one would seem to be a greater political and security risk, and yet it's ranked 10

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## larvidchr

> ^^The "personal crime rate" is just not that bad here (although that may change).  Makes me question their other determinations.


I think the meaning here is the crime rate committed by the Police against normal citizens, the point being no law and order and low protection against corruption extortion and so on by the Police against people trying to establish a business.

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## larvidchr

> Originally Posted by larvidchr
> 
> 10. Jerusalem, Israel
> 
> 
> that one would seem to be a greater political and security risk, and yet it's ranked 10



Again it is from a business point of view, infrastructure,legal system,corruption, transparent business practices aso. Not from the eyes of a Palestinian terrorist looking up at the drones Butterfly :Smile:

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## robuzo

> Originally Posted by robuzo
> 
> 
> ^^The "personal crime rate" is just not that bad here (although that may change).  Makes me question their other determinations.
> 
> 
> I think the meaning here is the crime rate committed by the Police against normal citizens, the point being no law and order and low protection against corruption extortion and so on by the Police against people trying to establish a business.


I take police-to-citizen ratio to mean number of citizens per cop- which actually is kind of high here, I think.

----------


## watterinja

I am a little surprised by the rating for Jhb. The crime side is a given.

Thailand & its corruption are renowned.

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## Mid

> ^^The "personal crime rate" is just not that bad here (although that may change). Makes me question their other determinations.


maybe so , BUT that was only 1/2 of it ................

*Personal crime rate/police-to-citizen ratio*

----------


## robuzo

> Originally Posted by robuzo
> 
> 
> ^^The "personal crime rate" is just not that bad here (although that may change). Makes me question their other determinations.
> 
> 
> maybe so , BUT that was only 1/2 of it ................
> 
> *Personal crime rate/police-to-citizen ratio*


Yes, and my opinion remains unchanged- the personal crime rate is fairly low compared to other countries, and the *police-to-citizen ratio* is fairly high, I think.  I could be wrong but I think larvidchr's interpretation of *police-to-citizen ratio* as "the crime rate committed by the Police against normal citizens" is incorrect; I think it simply means the number of cops vs. the number of citizens.  One might expect there to be a correlation between the number of cops and the crime rate- but then one might not be familiar with the Thai cops.

Thailand has a very high murder rate, which I think could skew the statistics to make it look like a high-crime country.  While that may look like a contradiction, the rate of violence committed during robbery, theft, etc. I take to be fairly low; murder as a result of loss of face, murder amongst family and acquaintances is high.  There is a lot of outsourcing in the Philippines (because of the "English" spoken there), where one has a much higher chance of becoming a victim of violent crime than here.

----------


## Mid

policemen per thousand people 

*Thailand*: 3.35665 per 1,000 people

Poor police to people ratio forces common man to fend for himself « A wide angle view of India

surprisingly high

----------


## robuzo

> policemen per thousand people 
> 
> *Thailand*: 3.35665 per 1,000 people
> 
> Poor police to people ratio forces common man to fend for himself « A wide angle view of India
> 
> surprisingly high


The number of paramilitary border police might skew the figures a bit.  I didn't expect the number to be nearly three times higher than Japan, which has an enormous national police force (and of course a little less than twice the population).

----------


## Mid

wonder how many in inactive posts  :mid:

----------


## Loy Toy

I do not profess to be an economic expert nor possess the same knowledge as some of the other financial gurus here but I have always wondered where the Thai government (whoever they may be and at any given time) gain the finances to run this country.

As I understand the corporate tax rates are quite low and are rarely collected in their entirety, only a small percentage of the working population actually pay taxes and taxes on commodity products such as fuel, locally produced food and for example cigarettes is very low and when compared to other countries.

Can someone very briefly offer me their wisdom and with regard to my ignorance?

----------


## chassamui

Wow! This site is quite something for a newbie like me. I can jump from really challenging and serious stuff like Thai girls knickers, to meaningless froth like this economic stuff.
Well done TD, keep up the diversity, it's awesome.

----------


## larvidchr

> I do not profess to be an economic expert nor possess the same knowledge as some of the other financial gurus here but I have always wondered where the Thai government (whoever they may be and at any given time) gain the finances to run this country.
> 
> As I understand the corporate tax rates are quite low and are rarely collected in their entirety, only a small percentage of the working population actually pay taxes and taxes on commodity products such as fuel, locally produced food and for example cigarettes is very low and when compared to other countries.
> 
> Can someone very briefly offer me their wisdom and with regard to my ignorance?


I thought most of it came from you  :Smile:  :Smile:  :Smile:

----------


## larvidchr

> Originally Posted by Mid
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by robuzo
> ...


You might be right Robuzo, I am not sure myself  :Smile:

----------


## Loy Toy

> I thought most of it came from you


Yes I always pay full taxes (well I guess that's what you are referring too) but when it comes down to how they can sustain this countries infrastructure and public service costs I have absolutely no idea mate.

----------


## Spin

> Can someone very briefly offer me their wisdom


Yes, I like this page on the Bank of Thailands website where they stick up loads of data. Thailand earns from exports. Only 6% of GDP comes from tourism, in the grander scheme of things tourism is not significant.
here
A good nose though the purple coloured links on that page shows enough to get a good handle on the what and the how much.
If your anything like me, once you have looked at some of the volumes and the *money involved* you might start asking yourself questions like "Why are there poor people in Thailand?" I know I did.

----------


## Loy Toy

^ Thanks spin and good afternoon!  :Smile:

----------


## watterinja

^^ ... Because there are greedy, conniving, super rich.

----------


## larvidchr

> Originally Posted by larvidchr
> 
> I thought most of it came from you
> 
> 
> Yes I always pay full taxes (well I guess that's what you are referring too) but when it comes down to how they can sustain this countries infrastructure and public service costs I have absolutely no idea mate.


I was just joking mate  :Smile: , what I meant to say really was they seem to be very good at making sure that "Farangs" in business here pay their full due, but when it comes to many big and small Thai enterprises the Taxation looks to be somewhat more hap hazard.

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## Loy Toy

^ Of course I don't want to go out on a limb here but I have been told of some larger organisations who pay very little tax but get away with paying special donations. 

Yes my tax is paid "in full" every month and based upon my salary and according to my qualifications and as stated on my work permit.

Something like three times the national average monthly salary last time I looked and about 1 year ago.  :Sad:

----------


## larvidchr

Maybe a more realistic view-

*"Downturn to last 3 or 4 years*

 By: BangkokPost.comPublished: 28/02/2009 at 12:41 PM The current economic downturn would be more severe than the 1997 financial crisis and recovery could take three or four years, according to former finance minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn.
 He said the 1997 financial crisis was cushioned by the export sector. The current problem was more complex. With the decline in exports there was nothing to help accommodate the unemployed. 
 Thailand took five years after the 1997 crisis to restore levels of production. Bailing out the current downturn would take three or four years, depending on government policy.

All countries in the region were experiencing a staggering decline in exports. This was an insoluble problem at the moment, the former finance minister said. The consumption stimulus policy would not be effective at a time of no confidence, and the government should turn its attention to ensuring the quality of life instead of the GDP figure. 

Mr Chalongphob said the government should employ people who lose their jobs, because job training would be fruitless without actual work positions being available. 
 He also suggested the administration place more importance on increasing tourism spending,* as every baht spent within the tourism sector adds two baht to the GDP.*"

And maybe it is time the Government get their priority's right, starting with throwing the people in jail (a long long time) that have contributed greatly to ruining the tourist industry.

----------


## Spin

> good afternoon!


Good afternoon to you too :Smile: 



> recovery could take three or four years, according to former finance minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn.


Now we are getting somewhere, the majority of the worlds significant countries are all experiencing recessions at the same time. This doesnt happen too often and the recover curve will be much slower.



> former finance minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn.


"Former", thats a shame because unlike the current minister, this guy seems in touch with whats going down in the real world.

----------


## natalie8

It's no longer a crices, it's now a crisis.  :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

----------


## robuzo

Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive » More bad news from Asia
Frederic Neumann, Asia chief economist at HSBC, told the FT
_The collapse in Asian exports over the fourth quarter was nothing short of breath-taking, said Economic models and experience suggest that financial turmoil tends to transmit far more gradually into the real economy than has occurred this time around. In fact, the severity and rapidity of the fall in output exceeds anything we have ever seen before._

----------


## Mid

> _The collapse in Asian exports over the fourth quarter was “nothing short of breath-taking”,_




only to those not paying attention

----------


## Blake7

> former finance minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn.


Yes, I had a meeting with him when he was minister of finance. Very much on the ball

----------


## watterinja

^ Who punctured the ball?

----------


## Butterfly

tourism might only be 6% of GDP, but the multiplier effect of the currency they bring, and the money they spent is definitely more

----------


## FlyFree

> policemen per thousand people 
> 
> *Thailand*: 3.35665 per 1,000 people
> 
> Poor police to people ratio forces common man to fend for himself « A wide angle view of India
> 
> surprisingly high


Methinks Thailand would be a lot safer with less police. Maybe it's the high per capita cop ratio that makes them rank it as dangerous.

----------


## EmperorTud

> Of course I don't want to go out on a limb here but I have been told of some larger organisations who pay very little tax but get away with paying special donations.


CPB pays no tax.

----------


## larvidchr

*"Thai Airways posts huge loss in 2008*

 By: AFPPublished: 28/02/2009 at 06:23 PM Flag carrier Thai Airways posted a huge loss of 21.3 billion baht ($592 million) in 2008 because of high fuel prices and protests that briefly shuttered Bangkok's airports, the company said.

 The airline made a profit of 4.4 billion baht in 2007, and last year's plunge was the company's first annual loss in 43 years.
 "For the fiscal year 2008 Thai Airways International continues to encounter crises such as the continuing sharp rise of jet fuel price, the global economic slowdown as well as the political unrest in the country," the airline said.
 In the statement released late Friday, Thai Airways also blamed foreign exchange losses due to the weakening of the Thai baht.
 The national carrier reported a 1.6 percent year-on-year increase in its total revenue to 200.1 billion baht, but its operating expenses were up 10.8 percent to 206.8 billion baht.
 The airline also reported foreign exchange losses of 4.5 billion baht.
 Thai Airways is currently in talks with the government over a rescue package to help revive the struggling carrier's finances.
 Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij has insisted the airline must submit a detailed recovery plan before it receives taxpayer funds.
 Thai Airways officials have previously said that the company lost about 20 billion baht when protesters trying to topple the last government seized and shut down Bangkok's two airports for a week in late November to early December.
 The occupation stranded around 350,000 passengers in Thailand and battered the kingdom's vital tourism industry.
 In January, Thai Airways said it would ask for a delay in the delivery of six A330 aircraft from European aircraft manufacturer Airbus due to a shortage of cash."


Please note the loss 21,3 billion Baht, further down in the artikel Thai Airways executives is quoted for claiming that the Airport closing by PAD cost TA 20 billion Baht. !!

In another piece in Bangkok Post it is stated that Thai Airways internationals bets against high fuel prices in the form of hedging have given losses of 6 billion Baht .

----------


## larvidchr

And on that note we continue-


*"PAD LET OFF THE HOOK*

*Foreign carriers feel pressing charges against protesters is not worthwhile, writes Boonsong Kositchotethana * 

By:  Published: 20/02/2009 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: Business Many airlines and aviation service providers are allowing the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) to go scot-free for seizing Bangkok's airports, which cost the economy more than 200 billion baht and ruined Thailand's international image.
 International airlines such as British Airways, Cathay Pacific, Etihad Airways, Singapore Airlines and local carriers such as Bangkok Airways and Thai AirAsia are not pushing lawsuits to seek compensation for the damage done by the anti-government movement last year.
 In a survey of players in the aviation industry by the Bangkok Post, there seems to be a consensus among them that an endeavour to pursue legal action against the PAD may not worth the energy, time and costs involved.
  Most airlines have written off their losses as the cost of civil unrest and are moving on with the business of staying aloft through the crisis.

 They are resigned to what they regard as the ''civil unrest'' nature of the event after consulting with their legal experts who indicated that it might be difficult to win the case in civil courts.
 They considered this sort of unrest part of the risks they have to assume while doing business.
 Some also sense that the Abhisit Vejjajiva administration is not really keen to hold the PAD accountable for laying siege to Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports from Nov 25 and Dec 4 last year in spite of the disastrous effects it caused.
 Thousands of the PAD activists stormed the airports to demand the removal of the Somchai Wongsawat government which they accused of being a corrupt nominee of the fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
 The protesters dispersed after a court ruling to dissolve three parties brought down the government.
 The blockade left 350,000 visitors stranded and prevented 3.4 million tourists from visiting Thailand, severely denting the kingdom's tourist-friendly image.
 The most recent study by the Bank of Thailand estimated losses of 210 billion baht from the airport closure. That amount represents 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) based on 2009 prices.
 The same study predicted that tourist arrivals in Thailand this year would fall 0.8% year-on-year to 14.3 million. Thailand's tourism industry accounts for 5% of GDP and employs two million people directly and indirectly.
 Airline managers and operators of aviation supporting facilities would rather concentrate their efforts on getting their businesses back on track and swallowing the financial costs incurred to them by the political standoff.
 ''There is no reason for us to take legal action (against the PAD). We don't think we can get any compensation. It is difficult to win such a lawsuit,'' said Aaron Chan, Cathay Pacific's manager for Thailand.
 The airline did not even bother to count the revenue it lost during the 10-day airport shutdown, though it has shouldered about four million baht from paying hotel, food, and transport bills for its stranded passengers as well as allocating manpower to help them.
 ''I'm not here to chase after somebody. I have a more important thing to do _ to spend my energy on [traffic] recovery,'' said Florian Preuss, Etihad Airways manager for Thailand. ''It is for the Thais to deal with the situation.''
 British Airways seems to be thinking along the same lines. Though the siege cost it around 50-60 million baht in lost revenue and other expenses in evacuating some 3,000 stranded passengers out of the capital at the time of the airport crisis, Kevin McQuillan, BA's manager for Thailand, said that suing the PAD was not on the airline's agenda.
 Tassapon Bijleveld, chief executive of the no-frills carrier Thai AirAsia, was more vocal, saying, ''It is useless to talk about the the PAD and a lawsuit.''
 ''This is a political issue, something you cannot really make accountable and make them compensate for the losses incurred to us. It is not worth our time, legal fees and energy,'' he said.
 The airport shutdown caused Thai AirAsia to miss its 2008 passenger target, set earlier at 4.5 million, by about 300,000 passengers, and revenue projection by a considerable margin.
 ''We're looking forward, not backward,'' Oman Air chief executive Peter Hill responded when asked whether his airline was pondering any legal action against the PAD.
 ''We have to deal with this sort of issues all over the world _ the tsunami, Sars, 9/11, the attack on Colombo airport that destroyed half of Sri Lanka Airlines' fleet in 2001.
 ''The situation in Thailand is something we call crisis management. You have to work around it, try not to get embroiled in these political issues,'' the veteran British airline executive said.
 An executive for Singapore Airlines' Bangkok office said it had not received any indication from its head office to press charges against the PAD.
 Thai Airports Ground Services Co (Tags) chief executive Ladya Uriya said the company had looked into the laws and concluded that it was a waste of time to take the the PAD to court, though the closure caused its revenue to drop by 30% last year. ''We would rather rebuild our business,'' he added.
 Only Thai Airways International (THAI) and Airports of Thailand Plc have made known their legal intention.
 THAI, which bore the brunt of the airport closure with 20 billion baht in damages, has already resolved to hold the PAD leaders accountable with a lawsuit for compensation equivalent to the disruption costs and future lost revenue.
 AoT, in turn, will make the the PAD liable for its action that cost more than 50 million baht for each day of the closure."

----------


## larvidchr

And finally just to illustrate how dead serious the present Government is about restoring tourist confidence and ensuring that this will never happen again  :mid:  -



*"Anti-airport seizure draft is some joke!*

 By: Boonsong KositchotethanaPublished: 25/02/2009 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: News Is the Abhisit Vejjajiva administration really serious about preventing the airports from being seized again, as the prime minister himself strongly pledged to the world recently?



 Probably not  -  if one looks at how the authorities are pursuing charges against leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) for their siege of Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports during Nov 25-Dec 4 last year. 
 Investigations into the case have been painfully slow, as police remain confused, intentionally or not, as to what charges they would press against the PAD leaders, despite the abundant evidence.
 The draft bill on anti-airport seizure which was recently approved by the Cabinet appears to be more proof of the lack of any serious intention to keep airports off-limits to political rallies.
 The draft contains a ridiculously light penalty for any attempt to seize Suvarnabhumi Airport, the heart and soul of Thailand's air transport hub around which much of the Thai economy is built. *It is highly offending that the proposed punishment for a crime that causes the national economy a massive heart attack and ruins the country's international image carries a measly fine of between 500 and 10,000 baht!*
 Why on earth is serious criminal punishment conspicuously absent from the draft? The fine print in the five-step measures laid down recently by a Transport Ministry-appointed committee set up to restore Thailand's air transportation, is equally laughable and a reflection of the intent.
 First, it calls for the dispatch of officials to negotiate with protesters before they reach the airport. Second, if the demonstration shows signs of being prolonged, the Airports of Thailand Plc (AoT) should set aside an area within Suvarnabhumi Airport but outside the passenger terminal, for them to congregate. Third, find spare channels for passengers to enter and exit the airport.
 Fourth, step up security checks along passages to the airside, including aprons and air traffic control tower. Fifth, the AoT needs to conduct anti-airport seizure drills every year.
 In the event that demonstrators are in great numbers, the AoT should coordinate with the police and military for support in crowd control.
 Both the draft law and the measures are clearly superficial and aimed only at pacifying anxious members of the public and the international community that there would not be a recurrence of airport seizures.
 It also raises the suspicion that the Abhisit government came up with such a draft bill only to dissuade the red-shirted opposition protesters from following in the footsteps of the yellow-shirted dissidents by taking over Bangkok's airports and creating another disaster for the whole country.
 Unfortunately, the contents of the draft law and the five-step action plan are undoubtedly ineffective, if not openly inviting demonstrators to hold the country hostage to fulfil their political ambitions.
*One question springs to mind: Is the anti-airport seizure draft bill and action plan needed in the first place?
 There exists a penal code (sections 135/1 and 132/2 amended in 2003) which classifies the seizure of airports as an act of terrorism, a crime subject to a fine of between 60,000 and 1 million baht, as well as the death penalty.
 The penalty is harsh enough to deter any more crime - but only if the authorities enforce the rule of law.*
 In fact, the five-step action plan was "practised" by the AoT during the last airport blockage, and it proved completely futile. When the AoT sent out an SOS to army Commander-in-Chief Gen Anupong Paojinda and the National Police Commission to dispatch reinforcements as the situation at Suvarnabhumi was getting out of hand, it simply fell on deaf ears. The previous government, the PAD and the armed forces were too busy playing their own game and were insincere about unlocking the political stalemate that was devastating the country.
 The Abhisit government needs to do a better job to convince us that it is dead serious about preventing history from repeating itself, and must indiscriminately allow existing laws to take their course.
 Thailand has paid dearly for the PAD's senseless and embarrassing action: 210 billion baht in losses and causing the country's GDP to contract for the first time in nearly a decade in the fourth quarter to minus 4.3% year-on-year.
 The blockade left some 350,000 visitors stranded and prevented 3.4 million tourists from visiting Thailand, severely denting the kingdom's tourist-friendly image.
 Boonsong Kositchotethana is Deputy Assignment Editor (Business), Bangkok Post."




So the people having cost Thailand and the Thai people, losses of over 200 billion Baht will walk away with fines from 500 - 10.000 Baht, seems real fair don't you think :rofl:  that will definitely give them a fright they will never forget.

----------


## Mid

> So the people having cost Thailand and the Thai people, losses of over 200 billion Baht will walk away with fines from 500 - 10.000 Baht


your going to be disappointed , they ( the people having cost Thailand and the Thai people ) won't be fined one satang .

as a matter of fact , some of 'em are in the cabinet .  :deadhorsebig:

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## larvidchr

^I thought the cabinet members (foreign minister) was amongst the 21 names with upcoming arrest warrants?

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## Mid

sadly the FM specifically is not , and arrest warrants are a long way from fines ................

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## larvidchr

> sadly the FM specifically is not , and arrest warrants are a long way from fines ................


Thanks Mid, and yes it is all developing into a Thai farce of the worst calibre.

And the reward is- no foreign investments, tourists reluctant to come here, the Abbasit Government is getting of with a real good start :mid:

----------


## Mid

as they say in the classics ,

ain't seen nothing yet  :Sad:

----------


## EmperorTud

The more I read and learn, the less respect and sympathy I have.




> There exists a penal code (sections 135/1 and 132/2 amended in 2003) which classifies the seizure of airports as an act of terrorism


 :mid:

----------


## Mid

^

yep , I suggest _pandora is well 'n truely outa the box_  :rofl: 

should of left this bit in ET




> a crime subject to a fine of between 60,000 and 1 million baht, as well as the death penalty.


Bangkok Post : Anti-airport seizure draft is some joke!

----------


## larvidchr

Some one have been suggesting that millions of Thais can just go back to the rural areas and live of the land, and thus this Country would not be hurt to much by the crisis, but apparently the rice farmers are struggling all ready so I'm not sure how this is going to work out-



*"Farmers threaten to block highways*

 Published:  2/03/2009 at 02:24 PM Farmers nationwide have threatened to block four major highways if the government sets the guarranteed buying price for rice at only 10,000 baht per tonne. 

Wichian Puanglamjiak, vice-president of the Thai Farmers Association, said on Monday the government earlier rejected the association’s request to extend the 2008-09 rice crop  mortgage scheme for one month,
 The government argued that farmers could instead sell their rice in the 2009-10 cycle, that starts  on March 16.
 However, the association had learned the government would reduce the guaranteed price for rice from 12,000 baht per tonne to 10,000 baht. Rice farmers throughout the country were frustrated by the decision.
 Registered members of the farmers association would protest by blocking four national highways if the government does not reconsider the new price.

If the government remained ambivalent about the problem of low prices for rice, the farmers would then move their protest into Bangkok, Mr Wichian said." 




It is an arrogant and unbelievable unintelligent idea to believe that millions of People accustomed to life in the big city's, the higher paid jobs and reasonable comforts, the ability to feed, buy books and school uniforms for their children, would be accepting to have to go back to rural areas and scrape a meagre existence on the limit of starvation under middle-age like primitive conditions without violent protests breaking out.
Recently the millitary communist dictators in Laos aired the same thoughts, that was not suprising you would expect total indifference for the people's living conditions from them, and that some Thais high up are just as stupid is after all that has happend lately not to surprising either.  :nerner:

----------


## mellow

^ You don't think there are enough frogs, insects, and snails around to make everyone happy? Forgot, lots of ants, a Thai favorite.

----------


## larvidchr

*SET plummets amid global bank worries* 

 By: NUNTAWUN POLKUAMDEE AND PARISTA YUTHAMANOP Published:  3/03/2009 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: Business Thai stocks dived 3.48% yesterday as most European and Asian markets closed sharply down over fresh worries about the health of the global financial sector. 
 The Stock Exchange of Thailand index closed yesterday at 416.52, down 15, in trade worth 8.05 billion baht. 
 Tokyo fell 3.81% yesterday, Seoul closed down 4.2% and Hong Kong dropped 3.9%. 
 Jitra Amorntham, head of research at Syrus Securities, said weak global sentiment was behind yesterday's local losses. 
 Declines on Wall Street on Friday pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its lowest point since 1997 on fresh fears that the US recession would be more protracted than originally feared. 
 Mrs Jitra said weaker first quarter earnings prospects were also leading investors to dump stocks.
 Meanwhile, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij vowed to complete a "Big Bang" reform programme this year.
 The seven-point plan aims to further liberalise Thailand's capital markets, including fee structure and licensing arrangements, strengthen oversight and supervision and improve the rights of minor shareholders. 
 "This 'Big Bang' will change the Thai capital market in every single dimension," Mr Korn said. 
 SET president Patareeya Benjapolchai said the market development plan was expected to be finished by May.

----------


## Butterfly

> Meanwhile, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij vowed to complete a "Big Bang" reform programme this year.


oh yeah, that should help  :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

----------


## larvidchr

This could be big ? a new Chairman for the BOT

*"Cabinet ratifies new BoT board* 

 By: CHATRUDEE THEPARAT Published:  4/03/2009 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: Business M.R. Chatumongol Sonakul has been nominated to become the new board chairman of the Bank of Thailand.
 M.R. Chatumongkol, a former Finance Ministry permanent secretary and central bank governor, led a list of 12 appointees to the bank's board that was approved by the cabinet yesterday.
 Other nominees include Kanit Sangsubhan, the director of the Fiscal Policy Office's Policy Research Institute; Nontaphon Nimsomboon, a former auditor-general; Borwornsak Uwannom, the secretary-general of King Prajadhipok's Institute; Porntip Jala, secretary-general of the Council of State; and Siri Ganjarerndee, a former assistant central bank governor.
 The other six ex-officio directors are central bank governor Tarisa Watanagase and deputy governors Bandid Nijathaworn, Atchana Waiquamdee and Nitaya Pibulratanagit; Ampon Kitti-ampon, the secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Board; and Somchai Sujjapongse, the director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office. 
 The nominations become effective after His Majesty the King endorses them.
 Dr Tarisa has been serving as board chairman since last year, when director nominations made by the Samak Sundaravej government failed to be approved.
 Then-finance minister Surapong Suebwonglee proposed Pornchai Nuchsuwan, a former director of the Budget Bureau, as central bank chairman. The nominations prompted criticism from the financial markets, as Mr Pornchai was one of dozens of technocrats facing charges for his role in approval of the illegal two- and three-digit lottery scheme by the Thaksin Shinawatra government.
 Arkabusk Krairiksh, a central bank assistant governor, said the appointment of M.R. Chatumongol was unlikely to lead to any conflicts due to his experience with the bank's operations.
 The chairman and five other members of the 12-person board are outsiders nominated by a search committee formed by the finance minister."

----------


## Spin

*"Signs of improvement lead to launch of new projects"*

The top 10 property developers in the Thai market are preparing to launch new residential projects worth more than Bt30 billion as they glimpse what some believe are the first signs of improvement in home-buyer confidence.

A survey by The Nation last week found that Sansiri will launch 11 new residential projects with a market value of Bt15 billion. One has been launched already and another 10 will follow this week. Preuksa Real Estate plans to launch eight new residential projects worth Bt5.9 billion this month, LPN Development will launch the second phase of a condominium project at Ram-Indra-Laksi worth Bt850 million this week, and Land & Houses plans to launch three new residential projects worth Bt3 billion this month. 

Asian Property Development will launch only one project worth Bt660 million this month, but that is the first part of an 11-project campaign for later in the year that will have an ultimate value of Bt17.7 billion. Supalai launched its first condominium project, with a market value of Bt1.7 billion, last month. 

Other property firms that are not listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand are also joining the rash of residential project launches with developments collectively worth more than Bt5 billion. These include Pace Development, which launched a luxury condominium project, Saladaeng Residences, worth Bt2.5 billion, last month. Four Pattana will also launch Baan Busaba, worth Bt200 million, this week.

Sansiri's chairman Apichart Chutrakul said that although Thailand's economy had slumped following the global downturn, his company believed that demand still existed for residential projects priced between Bt3 million and more than Bt5 million. 

"I think this is a good time for home-buyers to be buying a residence - when most property developers have launched marketing campaigns to boost their sales in the first quarter," he said. 

Sansiri is aiming for presales of residential properties worth Bt5.5 billion before the end of this month, following presale bookings of residences worth Bt2.5 billion after the January launch of its luxury condominium, Quattro. It will boost its chances of meeting the target by launching Living in Style 2009, at Siam Paragon this weekend. 

Supalai's deputy managing director Atip Bichanond said his company believed that despite the economic slowdown, real demand for residential projects priced between Bt1 million and Bt3 million would continue to grow if the projects were designed to meet customers' needs. 

"We've seen good signs in the first two months of this year. The number of visitors to our residential projects has increased about 10 per cent since the last quarter of last year, when the number of visitors fell more than 50 per cent below normal. As a result, we believe that when we launch new projects at this time, we will create a feeling of confidence among our customers and in the overall property market, that things are better than in the last quarter of last year," he said. 

It's a feeling with which others in the industry concur. Preuksa Real Estate's chief executive and managing director Thongma Vijitpongpun said that in the first two months of 2009, the property market had shown significant recovery from the fourth quarter of 2008, thanks to the government's stimulus measures. 

Thongma said his company had recorded presales of properties worth Bt955 million in January 2009, up by 19 per cent over the value of Bt800 million in December. The presales pace increased last month, with customers signing up for properties worth Bt1.3 billion, a 38-per-cent increase over January. This shows that home-buyers' confidence is recovering, Thongma said. 

"In December, we had 2,500 visitors to our projects, and between 22 and 23 per cent of them made a decision to buy. Now, we're getting between 3,000 and 3,500 visitors to our projects per month, and between 25 and 26 per cent of them are deciding to buy. This is a good sign for the property market after the hard time in December last year," he said. 

Pace Development's chief executive Sorapot Techakraisri said that although the economy would grow only slightly this year, the company believed it was a good time for investors to be getting into residential property. 

"If investors save their money in the bank or invest it on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, they will get returns on investment lower than 5 per cent. But when they invest in property, they will get an asset that will generate an annual return on investment of between 7 and 10 per cent. This is better than other investment options," he said. Saladaeng Residences is the company's second condominium project. The first was successfully developed on Sukhumvit 44/1 in 2004. 

According to a survey by the Agency for Real Estate Affairs (Area), there were 14 new residential projects launched in January with a total market value of Bt17.25 billion. That showed an increase of 113 per cent over the Bt9-billion value of new projects launched in December.

The research showed that new projects launched in January focused on the middle-income market, with prices between Bt2 million and Bt3 million per unit.

source

Good luck with all of that.

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## EmperorTud

> "I think this is a good time for home-buyers to be buying a residence - when most property developers have launched marketing campaigns to boost their sales in the first quarter,"


 :nerner:

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## Spin

^There so much shit in that article its untrue, its 100% unadulterated horseshit :Smile: 

This is my favourite bit




> we believe that when we launch new projects at this time, we will create a feeling of confidence among our customers and in the overall property market, that things are better than in the last quarter of last year,


Mumbo jumbo nonsence, the Thai economy is collapsing at light speed and these fuckers think that announcing a flashy new building will "trick" people into "feeling good" about the economy. Well Thais must be a lot more gullable than I thought.
None of these buildings should get off the plan, becuase the ghosts of 1997 still litter the Bangkok skyline. 

"create a feeling of confidence" 

 :rofl:   :rofl:   :rofl:   :rofl:

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## Thetyim

> "create a feeling of confidence"


Maybe it was translated wrong and should be
"create a feeling of incontinence"

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## larvidchr

Lets just for the arguments sake say some of the statements are almost true  :Smile:  ! could there be Thai buyers out there that after having lost confidence in the crashing Stock market and the Banks are moving assets into property believing it to be a good long term security investment, thus creating a picture showing that things are picking up where in reality it is panic bail out and a sign of the looming Thai economic collapse.

Another thing is that if what I have read is true? some of these property developers are essentially running a sort of ponzy schemes and if they don't start new projects and get buyers to pay some moneys up front they will run out of funds to run their company's and finish already started projects where they have trouble selling.?   

I have no idea if any of above could be true but just a thought after reading the article Spin posted above?

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## Spin

> Another thing is that if what I have read is true? some of these property developers are essentially running a sort of ponzy schemes and if they don't start new projects and get buyers to pay some moneys up front they will run out of funds to run their company's and finish already started projects where they have trouble selling.?




 :Smile:

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## larvidchr

Here is a bit on the tax revenue situation, February 2009 is interesting



*Tax revenue falls 16.4% under goal*

*Refunds greatly exceed projection* 

By: CHATRUDEE THEPARAT Published: 11/03/2009 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: Business Taxes collected over the first five months of the government's fiscal year missed the target by 16.4%, with 451.53 billion baht received, according to Somchai Sujjapongse, the director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office.
 The Revenue Department collected 366.16 billion baht, the Excise Department 93.99 billion, the Customs Department 34.25 billion, state enterprises 27.27 billion, and other agencies 40.3 billion baht.But the Revenue Department's tax refunds during the period totalled 95.33 billion baht, 19.6% above projections and up 29.4% over the same period last year.
*In February, the government collected 82.43 billion baht - 23.48 billion, or 22.2%, below its target and a 29.1% year-on-year decline.*
*Value-added tax, which provides the largest portion of all taxation, plunged 25.2% year-on-year last month to 30 billion baht.* With the exception of the oil tax, last month also featured declines in the collection of almost all categories.
 Mr Somchai said the tax results reflected the global economic situation and the government's policy of continuing to reduce the excise tax for oil.
 Meanwhile, the cabinet yesterday approved a framework to borrow US$2 billion to build infrastructure and stimulate the economy. One billion dollars would come from the World Bank and $500 million each from Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Japan Bank for International Co-operation (JICA).
 Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said the Finance Ministry would later work out the details to conform with the public debt law. The framework must be approved by Parliament.
 The government expects that the loan from the World Bank would be ready for disbursement in July and the loans from the JICA and the ADB by September. The schedule would conform to the government's plan to implement its second stimulus measures in October.
 Putthipong Punnakan, a deputy government spokesman, said the cabinet also gave approval for GH Bank to borrow 5 billion baht from local institutions in fiscal 2009 with a guarantee from the Finance Ministry. The aim is to help the state-owned bank meet market demand, in line with government policy of ensuring access to liquidity.
 Currently, GH Bank lends 180 billion baht - 31.69% of its total lending - to debtors who earn less than 20,000 baht per month. Its loans of less than 1 million baht total 389.4 billion baht, or 68.53% of all outstanding loans.
 Mr Putthipong said the cabinet also approved an adjustment of public debt management. Total public debt is to increase to 1.4 trillion baht, from 1.2 trillion, in fiscal 2009 because of the supplementary budget of 116.7 billion baht.

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## larvidchr

And the Job losses is continuing*



Small suppliers may shed 40,000 staff*

 By: NAREERAT WIRIYAPONG Published: 11/03/2009 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: Business About 40,000 out of 200,000 staff employed by small suppliers are expected to lose their jobs by mid-year as small and medium-sized operators have reported worse-than-expected revenue amid the global slump.
 The Alliance for Supporting Industries Association (ASIA) said its members reported a year-on-year decrease of more than half of their revenue in both January and February, worse than an earlier forecast of a 30% fall.
 Manufacturers in the automotive and electronics sectors have been worst hit, with several thousand workers laid off since the fourth quarter of last year, said the association's president, Prasert Thammanoonkul.
 "We estimate that the current hardship will lead to job cuts of around 40,000 by May or June and we still don't know what is going to happen in the second half of the year," said Mr Prasert, also the head of the Thai Subcontracting Promotion Association.
 Badly hit by the world recession, automakers such as Toyota, Mitsubishi and Isuzu have cut back on staff, starting with outsourced workers, as sales slump both at home and abroad. The electronic sector has been similarly affected due to its heavy reliance on exports.
 Mr Prasert describes ASIA as a group of 13 associations with 15,000 corporate members, 90% of which are SMEs. They employ a total of 200,000 people and have a combined revenue of between 200 billion and 300 billion baht a year.
 Other members are the Association of Thai Small and Medium Entrepreneurs, the Thai Plastic Industries Association, the Thai Tool and Die Industry Association, and the Association of Thai Software Industry.
 As their revenue has fallen sharply, Mr Prasert said some members are facing financial constraints and risk going out of business because banks have become stricter about offering credit.
 To survive the crisis, the association recommends that the government help small-scale business operators to find foreign manufacturing contracts.
 "There is demand outside Thailand. Government agencies such as the Department of Export Promotion should organise a mission for SMEs to help them better penetrate potential markets," he said.
 In addition, more government contracts such as assembling 4,000 public buses should go to local companies. Thailand imports machinery worth as much as 500 billion baht that local industries can produce, he said.
 He added that the association has drafted a list of relief measures for supporting industries. The proposal is to be officially submitted to the government by the middle of this month.
 The association is also to join Automotive Manufacturing 2009, Asean's only machinery expo, at the Bangkok International Trade and Exhibition Centre (Bitec) from June 25-28, which is expected to draw potential clients from abroad.

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## theudonshawn

> I was just joking mate , what I meant to say really was they seem to be very good at making sure that "Farangs" in business here pay their full due, but when it comes to many big and small Thai enterprises the Taxation looks to be somewhat more hap hazard.


You hired the wrong tax man!!  The business folks who get out of paying tons of taxes hire the auditor officials to do their taxes.  (Serious conflict of interest... but it works.)  The guy I hired to do my taxes is the government official in charge of taxes here... Not that I cheat of course... just need the best advice for taxes that I can get.

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## chassamui

> "In December, we had 2,500 visitors to our projects, and between 22 and 23 per cent of them made a decision to buy. Now, we're getting between 3,000 and 3,500 visitors to our projects per month, and between 25 and 26 per cent of them are deciding to buy. This is a good sign for the property market after the hard time in December last year," he said.



Is it possible in a recession for property buyers to almost double, from 575 (23% of 2500), buyers per month to 910 (26% of 3500) buyers per month?

I think this is corporate probity manipulation. (Translation: The bastards are telling lies).

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## rubbajohnny

made a decision
Ah but how many converted it into a cheque

I promise my wife I'll finish deck pool garden one day perhaps in the next re-incarnation or JJs keep fit holiday

Does Marmite the Dog like a dig there'll be abone in it for whoever holds the leash

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## rubbajohnny

There wa aclassic textbook called 
"How to lie with statistics" which was on my Uni must place homebrew kit on list

If ulike pdfs

ile Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - View as HTML
Over the last fifty years, _How to Lie with Statistics_ has sold more *....* do _lie with statistics_ every day, and it is to Huff’s credit *...*
www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~steele/Publications/*PDF*/SteeleSS2005.*pdf* 
www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~steele/Publications/PDF/SteeleSS2005.pdf

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## theudonshawn

^thanks for the pdf, hope I'll get to reading it tonight

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## larvidchr

There are some very bad tourism numbers coming in :Sad: 

*Tourism fund not enough for all*

 By: Bangkokpost.comPublished: 17/03/2009 at 08:06 PM The five-billion-baht fund for tourism operators is not enough for them to all survive the slump, said Tourism and Sports Minister Chumpol Silpa-archa.
 The financial support programme was officially launched Tuesday and will run until April 30. 
 The Federation of Thai Tourism Associations (FTTA) predicted that at least 450 tour operators would seek financial help worth at least 1.8 billion baht.
 More than 1,000 restaurant operators are expected to submit loan applications for 500 million baht, with small hotels likely to seek up to two billion baht.
 Soft loans to help tourism-related operators will charge an interest rate at 2% in the first two years, followed by the minimum lending rate (MLR) -3%.
 "The requests for loans during the 1.5-month period will exceed five billion baht for sure. If demand is excessive, we will go forward with the second fund,'' Mr Chumpol said.
 The minister estimated that the tourism business would pick up near the end of this year if the private and government sectors worked hand-in-hand to promote the country in the same direction.
 Apichart Sankary, the FTTA president,  said the tourism industry in Thailand would be sluggish in the next two years, particularly for inbound business.
*"I can say that this year is the poorest since I have been in business. This summer, tourist arrivals from Europe and the United States will drop more than 30%.* Instead, most operators should pin their hopes on Asian tourists particularly from Japan and China,'' he said.

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## larvidchr

Manufacturing for exports is going to decline sharply. More jobs will be lost in Thailand.

*Trade surplus at 18-year high*

  By: Bangkokpost.comPublished: 18/03/2009 at 09:30 PM  Thailand posted its widest trade surplus in 18 years in February as demand continued to sink in face of the global recession.
  The trade surplus in February widened to $3.58 billion from $1.38 billion a month earlier while imports plummeted 40.3%, the sharpest drop in 11 years. The decline follows January's 37.6% decline, according to Siripol Yodmuangcharoen, the Commerce Ministry's permanent secretary.
  The steep import fall means lower demand for raw materials among manufacturers and falling oil prices which averaged US$40 per barrel compared with $100 in the same month last year.
  Thailand imported 22.86 million barrels of oil in February worth $1.052 billion. The volume and value were down by 10.7% and 56.3% respectively. 
  Imports of capital goods fell 16.1%, with machinery down 14.1%, computers by 32.5%, and semi-finished and finished materials by 48.8%, mainly because of the shrinking demand among buyers who have been hard hit by the world economic slump.
  The big fall in imports triggered by decreasing imports of raw materials and capital goods signals that *manufacturing for exports is likely to decline in the coming months, said analysts.*
  Exports, which make up 70% of the economy, sank for the fourth consecutive month by 11.3% from a year earlier to $11.73 billion. *Demand for electronics, auto parts, electrical appliances and agricultural and agro-industrial products has dried up.*

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## Butterfly

> www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~steele/Publications/PDF/SteeleSS2005.pdf


nice reference,

its not lies really, more like statistics give you a lot of freedom to choose from  :Smile:

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## larvidchr

*Korn: Economy could shrink 3%*

 By: BangkokPost.comPublished: 23/03/2009 at 11:49 AM Gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year could shrink three per cent, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said on Monday.
 The Fiscal Policy Office lowered the GDP growth projection for 2009 from negative two per cent to negative three per cent, and other countries also cut their economic forecasts in the past two to three months, Mr Korn said.

It was therefore necessary for the government to seek more loans to support the economy. He said the government would spend the funds cautiously.

The government is preparing the fiscal year 2010 budget, and it is continuing the deficit budget policy, he revealed.

The minister said the economy might sink by eight to nine percent this year and more than two million people could be unemployed without support from the government's economic measures.

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## terry57

> Why has the baht hung on so long.


 
$1 AUD = 24 bath on the street today, going up every day, lets hope it keeps up.  :Smile:

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## Norton

> $1 AUD = 24 bath on the street today, going up every day, lets hope it keeps up.


If the AUD holds where it is against the USD will likely do so.

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## Khun Custard

With the Auzzie $ now below the Singapore $ today it make me wonder.

One thing is for sure that if there was a sales boom in Thai property of recent it must be linked for the March 27th cut off date of the .01 % sales tax on property and the reintroduction of the 2%

It was interesting to read in an email  from Raimon land was offering to arrange amazing mortgages for sign up before the 27th - I wonder how well they did ??

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## larvidchr

It seems that at least some Thais are waking up to the reality's and what's more dare to speak about it.


*More stimulus on the way to curb job losses * 

By: POST REPORTERS  Published: 24/03/2009 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: News Thailand's economy will shrink by a sharp 3% this year, worse than previously forecast, says Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij.



 Mr Korn yesterday said his ministry would put in place more fiscal policies to cope with the steeper-than-expected economic deterioration.

 The government earlier forecast a contraction of up to 2% of GDP for the year.
 "Without economic stimulus measures from the government, Thailand's economy could contract by 8% or 9% this year, which could cause almost 2 million workers nationwide to lose their jobs," Mr Korn said.

 "The 3% shrinkage forecast has already taken into account figures that are the expected outcomes of the government's finance policies that will be implemented this year."

 The finance minister said the government needed to continue its budget deficit policy next fiscal year with the deficit figure rising to 390 billion baht from 350 billion baht this fiscal year.
 This fiscal year's deficit figure of 350 billion baht is equivalent to 3.5% of the country's GDP.
 Mr Korn said the government would exercise its budget deficit policy cautiously because it needed to take into account the long-term stability of state's finances.

 The government would also issue a royal decree to authorise the government to spend the existing 17 billion baht in revenues gained from the digit lottery programme launched in 2003 during the Thaksin Shinawatra administration, Mr Korn said.
 The government did not dare spend the 17 billion baht after the Council of State, which looked into the legality of the lottery scheme, ruled it was not underpinned by any law. This meant the government had no authority to spend the money. 
 The digit lottery scheme was scrapped by the coup-appointed Surayud Chulanont government.
 Economist and former deputy prime minister Olarn Chaipravat said for each 1% contraction in GDP, some 400,000 people would lose their jobs.

 Based on this premise, if GDP shrinks by 3% this year, down from 2.6% growth last year, unemployment could rise to over 2 million.

 Satit Rungkasiri, the Revenue Department's adviser on strategic tax administration, said the department had forecast that country's tax revenues would fall 120 billion to 130 billion baht below its 1.4-trillion-baht target.
 Mr Satit also said this year's tax revenue figure was even lower than in 1997, when the so-called "Tom Yum Kung" economic crisis hit the country.
 "It might be because the revenue set a lower target during the Tom Yum Kung crisis. This year, we've set quite a high target," Mr Satit said.

 Amara Sripayak, the central bank's senior director for the domestic economy, supported the government's plan to seek loans from foreign banks, saying the administration's spending of the money on infrastructure projects over the next three years would help boost investors' confidence in the country's economy over the long run.
 She said private investors would not invest more in the Thai economy in the near future because many did not expect the Thai economy to recover within the year. 
 "It's better for the government to spend on megaprojects over the next three years," she said.

 Mrs Amara also supported the Finance Ministry's plan to give priority to the implementation of fiscal measures to spur growth. 
 The measures would help boost the country's flagging economy, while those measures could be backed up by monetary measures as well, she suggested.

 Meanwhile, MPs and senators will meet today to deliberate the government's proposal to borrow 70 billion baht from foreign banks to shore up the economy.
 The House Secretariat has sent a letter to MPs calling on them to take part in the special sitting.
 The government plans to seek 70 billion baht in loans from the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and Japan International Cooperation Agency to fight the economic slump.
 The borrowing is aimed at financing investment in infrastructure projects, including logistics, water management systems, health care and education.

 To be vetted by parliament are also a Thai-Japanese fiscal cooperation plan and a draft loan contract proposed by the Abhisit Vejjajiva cabinet.
 The documents involve the Japanese government's initial agreement to lend 63 billion yen to Thailand to invest in the Red Line mass transit route from Bang Sue to Rangsit.

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## larvidchr

*Auto production, sales plunge*

 By: BangkokPost.comPublished: 23/03/2009 at 04:39 PM Automotive production nosedived 50.57 per cent month-on-month in February due to the economic downturn of Thailand's trading partners, according to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI).
 In February, the country manufactured about 60,000 cars, FTI's Automotive Industry Club (AIC) spokesman Surapong Paisitpatnapong said on Monday.

Domestic auto sales in February stood at 34,000 cars, down by 30.7 per cent, while the country managed to export about 44,000 cars or 32.49 per cent lower. 

In the first two months of this year, auto production plummeted to 130,000 cars, down by 42.37 percent, while auto exports dipped 23.11 per cent.

However, Mr Surapong said the Middle East captured 21 per cent of the market share. Last year, the figure was 19 per cent. Australia and Asian countries continued to top the market share at 24 per cent.

He believed auto sales in the second half of 2009 will improve because of the government's economic stimulus measures. He said this year's auto sales target will remain at 1,080,000 cars.

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## baldrick

> "The 3% shrinkage forecast has already taken into account figures that are the expected outcomes of the government's finance policies that will be implemented this year."


which means that their 3% figure is based on an optimistic outcome to the stimulus packages

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## Rural Surin

What stimulous package?

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## chassamui

> What stimulous package?


I could do with my package stimulating right now. :rofl:

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## Spin

> What stimulous package?


I think they are talking about the "2000 baht - dont forget to vote for me next time" thing :mid: 

It might stimulate votes. But the economy?

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## Fabian

> Well Thailand can't be any worse that Germany where I have lived and worked for the past 10 years, as that has really gone to shit. Bankrupt banks, manufacturing and engineering dead and complete collapse on the cards. That's why I have escaped!!!


Seems like you have been in a different Germany than the one I am living in.

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## Hardy99

The problem is that they didn't "get" it up to now.. there is only a small problem and the PM can solve that by borrowing billions of dollars with a hard currency (Baht) and when the Baht gets weak.. oh hell.. then the borrowed amount gets "BIGGER" i guess...

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## Hardy99

As they told in the landoffice the discounted rates for businesstax and change ownership should stay at the 0.11% ...?? (in total) did they give wrong information ??

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## larvidchr

*WATCHING PATTAYA'S DECLINE*

*Tiffany's Show owner says resort city needs a major cleanup.*

By: Parista Yuthamanop Published:  7/05/2009 at 12:00 AMNewspaper section: Business Sutham Phanthusak, the owner of Pattaya's best-known entertainment business, has a grim face as he ponders the challenges the resort city faces.


  Sutham Phanthusak, owner of Tiffany’s Show, frets about Pattaya’s latest blow, the Asean summit riots: ‘‘I worry hotels with tight cash flow might close down.’’ TAWATCHAI KEMGUMNERD

 The Trang native who founded Tiffany's Show three decades ago has seen Pattaya evolve from a tranquil seaside resort, renowned for its sunsets, into a town bustling with activity and nightlife.
 "Pattaya itself has potential. But its growth has come with poor-quality zoning and management. It is killing itself, which is quite regrettable," he says.
 But reviving Pattaya's business has now become an urgent question of survival after protesters from the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) violently disrupted the Asean summit on April 11. The incident was a prelude to street fighting in Bangkok a few days later.
 "Pattaya survived many crises in the past. First was the Gulf War in 1991. Then we encountered the Sars epidemic and bird flu. If we can compare those to catching a cold, Pattaya now has cancer," says Mr Sutham, who also owns the five-star Woodlands Hotel and Resort.
 "This could be the end of Pattaya after 40 years."
 Even before the H1N1 influenza outbreak, the occupancy rate of five-star hotels in Pattaya stood at 10% in April, compared with a typical rate of 70-80%. Occupancy at lower-ranked hotels was only 30-40% last month.
 With 1,490 cases of H1N1 flu now reported worldwide, tourism globally is braced for a heavy blow.
 In any case, Mr Sutham hopes the government's efforts to calm political tensions can help resuscitate the battered tourism sector.
 "Even if the political situation returns to normal, tourism will take a year to recover because it is about advance planning. I worry we could see hotels with tight cashflow close down," he says.
 Mr Sutham adds that Pattaya desperately needs to improve its zoning - and shed its image as a mafia haven and a hub of the sex trade - if it wants to attract more sophisticated tourists.
 "How can Pattaya attract quality tourists if it has no proper zoning for beer bars and night pubs and allows go-go dancers to perform in the middle of the streets?" he asks.
 In his view, rebranding Pattaya will also require an overhaul of its police force - which he accuses of taking far too long to examine crimes. For him, the ability of protesters to break into the Asean summit venue was yet another instance of the police's inadequacy.
 "The fact that the protesters were outnumbered by security officers from the police and military should have allowed the government to block them without violence," he says. "There is just one road leading to the hotel entrance and the other side of the hotel is enclosed by the beach. There were 1,600 UDD protesters compared with more than 2,000 officers."
 But he dismisses reports that Pattaya residents participated in the turmoil as members of the "blue shirts" opposing anti-government protesters.
 "There are very few locals among the blue shirts. I would say fewer than 1% of them are locals," he said.










I am very surprised that the good 5 star hotels are down to 10% that surely cant go on for long before they will have to close shop ?  :Sad:

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## good2bhappy

So that is what the bastard looks like!

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## good2bhappy

Hope he goes broke

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## larvidchr

someone you know ?  :rofl:

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## good2bhappy

My mrs worked in his hotel

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## corvettelover

just borrow money no problems and deny the recession is hurting thailand everyone will run with that 
muppets :tosser1:

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## stewart888

seems like a nice enough guy. Honest too.

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