#  >  > Living And Legal Affairs In Thailand >  >  > Thailand and Asia News >  >  > Business, Finance & Economics in Thailand >  >  Dow drops 508 points, SET to test 500 barrier

## Mid

*Dow drops 508 points, SET to test 500 barrier* 
08 October 2008 

Dow Jones further plunged 508.39 points this morning (Thai time), down 5.1%, at a five-year low of 9447.11, while the Thai stocks were affected by uncertainty in local politics coupled with prevailing US financial meltdown, resulting in the SET index dropping almost 5% on Tuesday with the index expecting to test between 500 and 535 points today (October 8) 

Mr. Thawatchai Asavapornchai, senior vice president, Globex Securities Co., Ltd, attributed the local stock exchanges continued plummeted on Tuesday to prevailing US financial crisis, coupled with uncertainty in the local political situation, after police dispersed anti-government Peoples Alliance for Democracy (PAD) from besieging Parliaments compound on Tuesday morning to clear path for the Government to declare its policy. 

Foreign investors continued their sell off for Thai stocks on Tuesday amounting to 803.99 million baht. The SET index on Tuesday was down 23.09 points or 4.18% to close at 528.71 points. 

He said that prevailing uncertainty in local politics have played more role than US financial crisis for investment sentiment in the local stock exchange. He forecast the SET index would move between 500 and 535 points today (October 8). 

Meanwhile, Dow Jones further plunged 500 points this morning (Thai time) as banks stocks fell. 

Frightened American investors took no comfort in regulators' continued efforts to stanch the US credit crisis and sent stocks to more steep losses, led by the financial sector. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 170 points at its morning high but slumped to finish lower for a fifth consecutive day, with the selling gaining momentum as the closing bell approached. 

The Dow finished near its daily low, off 508.39 points, down 5.1%, at a five-year low of 9447.11, with all 30 of its components posting declines. 

It was led down by a 26.2% plunge in shares of Bank of America, which is cutting its dividend and seeking $10 billion in capital. J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup also saw declines of more than 10% each. The Dow has plummeted more than 1400 points, or 13%, during its five-day losing streak. 

thainews.prd.go.th

long way from those projections of 1,000 being branded about around this time last year .......

.

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## mrsquirrel

Wasn't Butterfly talking about the SET going to 1200 a year or so ago?

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## Butterfly

^ don't think so, even though I was going to leave the SET once it reached 1000, went  to 900 though

some silly brokers were forecasting 1,200 as early as 2004

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## mrsquirrel

Might have been 1000.

Have to dig up Keda's thread I think.

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## Spin

SETs down 5% today, hovering around the 500 level

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## keda

Yes it was keda who predicted 1000, and it looked as though it was on the cards at the time....note, at the time.

As buttfrier says it was up there in the high 800s, touched 900 then swooned at that altitude, at about the time PAD began their latest offensive.

Imho the panic we are seeing is not all rational, partly induced, and when the dust settles - as it will - many people will make a lot of money picking up cheap stock.

Surprisingly, retailers have been net buyers against foreign and institutional selling recently...they're sucking themselves into a black hole so the fatcats can get fatter.

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## Rattanaburi

Pretty serious stuff today here in Asia. Check out Japan!


AustraliaASX 100-188.40-4.98%3,594.1010/8 4:47pm
AustraliaASX All Ords-228.10-4.96%4,369.8010/8 4:47pm
AustraliaASX Mid-cap 50-237.80-5.39%4,176.7010/8 4:47pm
Hong KongHang Seng-1,284.11-7.64%15,519.6510/8 4:10pm
Hong KongHSCC Red Chip-273.89-8.54%2,934.0410/8 4:10pm
JapanNikkei 225-952.58-9.38%9,203.3210/8 4:30pm


Actually my avatar fits the mood quite well right now

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## Spin

> Yes it was keda who predicted 1000, and it looked as though it was on the cards at the time....note, at the time.


If my memory serves me right it was only about a year ago, and the Dow was at record high of 14,100? 1000 for the SET was certainly on the cards, there were huge rallies of irrational excuberance going on around the world even after the credit crunch started for real on August 18th 2007.

What a difference a year makes!

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## keda

SET broke through what should have been very strong support at 600, then tried for the next 4 days to recover but couldn't, after which it went into freefall through 500 (another -16%) like it wasn't there, in 4 days. Now down 40% in less than 5 months. 

I would defer to buttfrier as more knowledgeable, but anyone's guess from here.

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## Butterfly

One of my stock is trading at 2 PE !!! that's right, 2 PE

it's a property stock though, but they keep bouncing back and crashing, great little trading game. The funny thing is that their earnings keep going up for the last 3 years, and yet the price keeps crashing. Paying 9% dividend now,

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## aging one

Not to worry. I rode the stocks back from the collapse 12 years ago. Rock bottom and up can be fun.

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## meepho

> One of my stock is trading at 2 PE !!! that's right, 2 PE
> 
> it's a property stock though, but they keep bouncing back and crashing, great little trading game. The funny thing is that their earnings keep going up for the last 3 years, and yet the price keeps crashing. Paying 9% dividend now,


i'd like a bit of that stock :Smile: 

a couple of years ago on this forum when the ftse was rising i said it would reach 6000 then sell, it reached 6600, i also said the ftse would be a buy at 4800 but where is the bottom, same goes for the set i think the next support level will be as low as 300
but with the present climate both political and monitory who knows.
buy gold. :Confused:

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## keda

dead cat should bounce back maybe 4-5%, then get out of the way.

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## Butterfly

LOL, looks like I was right, the stupid DOW did a 1000 point rebound, with the highest record ever, unfucking believable

completely irrational,

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## Butterfly

so far the damages:

Today = -7%

SET YTD = -45%

%Change Last 3 Months: -31.25%

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## Mid

The Stock Exchange of Thailand: Your Investment Resource for Thailand's Capital Market 

400 ........................??????

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## Mid

almost there , wonder what the traders are having for lunch ?

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## Thormaturge

^
Some free Thai Bev products I expect

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## keda

> 400 ........................??????


-55% since May, not much further, very strong support at 370-380 but if that breaks even stronger at 340-350. 

Can't see any drop below 370-380 as relevant, more like greed by the boys taking advantage of the opportunity to squeeze those few extra baht.

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## Mid

dropped passed prior support levels with hardly a glance ,

no rules anymore ????????

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## Mid

> ^
> Some free Thai Bev products I expect


didn't do the trick 


SET 391.74

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## good2bhappy

ok it is the Bahts turn I hope

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## keda

already -9.36%, could well be another breather this session

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## keda

-9.58%...getting there...

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## Mid

hit 390.6 which is >10% and bounced to 392.19 currently

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## Mid

Last Update : 27 Oct 2008 16:04:22

Status : Halt

SET389.58
-43.29

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## chitown

> Mr. Thawatchai Asavapornchai, senior vice president, Globex Securities Co., Ltd, attributed the local stock exchange’s continued plummeted on Tuesday to prevailing US financial crisis, coupled with uncertainty in the local political situation, after police dispersed anti-government People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) from besieging Parliament’s compound on Tuesday morning to clear path for the Government to declare its policy. 
> 
> Foreign investors continued their sell off for Thai stocks on Tuesday amounting to 803.99 million baht. The SET index on Tuesday was down 23.09 points or 4.18% to close at 528.71 points.


Chitown goes and checks the exchange rate........pause.....Ok I am back....come on 35!!!!!!!

*1.00 USD*

*=*

*34.7800 THB*

 :rock_dj:  :rock_dj:  :rock_dj:  :rock_dj:  :rock_dj:

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## Mid

excellent  :Smile: 

a large one gov 'n 'ave another yaself 

Chi's bin ..............

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## Mid

so trading was halted at 16:04:22

how long for ???

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## good2bhappy

not much good if you hold sterling!

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## keda

^29^
to the death

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## Mid

^

 :Confused:

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## Mid

Last Update : 27 Oct 2008 16:34:35

Status : Open(II)




SET
387.67


-45.20

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## keda

You wish!

Not sure what happened, trading stopped at -10% just after 4 then resumed *after* the ATC's went up *before* 4.30 to close at -10.50%...I'm sure there'll be a logical Thai explanation for that in tomollow's Bangkok Post.

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## BugginOut

Thailand

            INDEX                          VALUE      CHANGE       %CHANGE        TIME
 SET Index                     389.58     -43.29          -10.00%        05:04   

SET 50 Index                265.42      -32.98          -11.05%        05:04

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## Mid

taken for here keda

The Stock Exchange of Thailand: Your Investment Resource for Thailand's Capital Market

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## aging one

I am buying Cathay Pacific on the Hong Kong market. Best value I have seen in a long time. Roughly a buck a share.

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## Mid

*Thai bourse halts trade temporarily after index falls 10%*

*BANGKOK*, Oct 27 (TNA) - Trading on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) was suspended temporarily for about 30 minutes on Monday afternoon after the SET index plunged 10 per cent in line with world markets out of concerns of global financial meltdown, dealers said.

The SET index was at 389.58 points, down 43.29 points from last Friday or 10 per cent. Turnover at the time when trade at the market was halted was about Bt10.5 billion. 

The sharp decline of 10 per cent in the SET index triggered a so-called "circuit breaker", the second of this month, with the first taking place on October 10. 

Stock exchange authorities implemented a call market at 4.35 pm to settle pending orders before the market was temporarily halted. The Thai bourse normally closes at 4.30 p.m. 

Thai share prices closed 10.50 per cent lower on Monday. The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index fell 45.44 points to close at 387.43 points, while the blue-chip SET-50 index lost 35.23 points to 263.17 points. (TNA)

enews.mcot.net

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## bkkandrew

> I am buying Cathay Pacific on the Hong Kong market. Best value I have seen in a long time. *Roughly a buck a share*.


There's a good reason for that...

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## robuzo

A front page article in the October 25 Yomiuri Shinbun noted that share prices for Sony and Toyota had fallen to a level that would be expected if said companies were bankrupt- in other words, no expectation of future earnings/growth.  In other words, top flight Japanese companies can be had at fire sale prices, but nobody is buying.  Including me. . .yet.

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## good2bhappy

so trade begins today will the SET fall further?

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## keda

another 15-20%

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## Mid

*STI plunges 7.17% at opening* 
Tue, Oct 28, 2008
AFP

SINGAPORE shares opened sharply lower with the benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) down 114.81 points, or 7.17 per cent, at 1,485.47.
86.4 million shares exchanged hands.

Losers beat gainers 217 to 20.

The main Straits Times Index plunged 107.06 points to 1,493.22 from Friday's close of 1,600.28. 

Markets were closed Monday for a public holiday. -- AFP

news.asiaone.com

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## good2bhappy

so will it fall below 300?

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## Mid

not today ,

simply cause they'll halt trading first .

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## robuzo

Do they halt at 10%?  Seems to me I read that somewhere.

This will continue as hedge funds are forced to liquidate.  There is a point- we may already be there- where the prices of the better companies will be low to the point of ridiculous, unless the future really is going to be a Mad Max movie (first and second in the trilogy, not the idiotic "Thunderdome").  

What would Thailand be like under that scenario?  Mass exodus to the countryside, where the food is?  People who actually know how to grow things with simple implements getting the upper hand?  A rebirth of _krabi krabong_ when the bullets run out?  Could be fun.

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## good2bhappy

SET opened higher
Article in the BP says exports dropped by 30%!
Well that should help the baht

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## keda

it's up for now but the trend is still down, would hate to guess where bottom might be but it should be lower than 350.

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## Thormaturge

Pension funds also dump shares if they fall too far, which is another reason for the recent stock market decline. The money will be going into Government bonds, which is where the Fed and others are getting some of the bailout money.

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## bkkandrew

^(On the last point) Another ironic unintended consequence of bailing out...

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## Mid

will there be enough green ink to last till lunchtime ?  :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

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## Thormaturge

^^
Yep pension funds liquidate shares because the market is falling.  The falling market causes banks to fail so the Government issues bonds to raise money to bail out the banks, so the pension funds sell more shares to buy nice safe bonds and the market falls further.

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## Mid

guess not 

Last Update : 28 Oct 2008 11:04:00

Status : Open(I)



SET
387.40

-0.03
3,986.96

The Stock Exchange of Thailand: Your Investment Resource for Thailand's Capital Market

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## keda

> will there be enough green ink to last till lunchtime ?


looks like, but the way it's going could turn red anytime

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## Mid

Last Update : 29 Oct 2008 11:53:54

Status : Open(I)


SET
395.87

-2.17

The Stock Exchange of Thailand: Your Investment Resource for Thailand's Capital Market


what's this all about markets regionally are green ...................

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## keda

was +14, now red...once the panic sets in again it should visit at least 350 probably 330.

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## Mid

strange , institutions are net buyers today for a change but foreigners are heading to the exits ...........

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## Mid

now on the up again , looks like a support level at 395 ,  BOT ???

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## keda

1 - they may be closing positions

2 - support no longer reliable, too many support lines have already emulated French military resilience...next is 350-360 then 320-330...meanwhile

2 - KEEP THE BOT OUT OF THIS!!!

 :Wink:

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## Mid

keep my imaginary 395 outa it as well ..................... :Sad: 

somebody needs to find the traders a new chef , lunches seem to be substandard .....

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## Butterfly

well the SET has rebounded, up 20% since its low

still a lot of bargains to catch, smaller stocks, most large cap are up, but small caps haven't recovered entirely, as they are being ignored. Great bargains  :Smile:

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## Spin

> well the SET has rebounded, up 20% since its low


My bets are firmly placed that major world indices are going back down to re-test those lows again. If it doesnt start today, now that election is finished, it will start friday with the non farm payroll data in the US.

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## keda

yep, looks like down again...I wouldn't bet on the low but should be back into the 300s.

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## meepho

i firmly believe we are in a worse state than 2002- 2004 when the ftse went down to a low of 3400, with the current out look the set should in theory go to 300 or below the ftse 3300 - 3600 and the dow to 7500- 8000 to get back to fair value and then see a steady upturn in a couple of years.
i'm glad my pensions are not linked to any of these exchanges.

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## Mid

*20 Nov 2008*






set.or.th

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## keda

Next stop 370, then could freefall through 350...but never mind trivia like global meltdown and domestic anarchy, can't see it break jing jing strong support at around 320 without something real nasty like a family bereavement. 

Otoh, DJ is at 8000 and many analysts believe 7000-7200 (another 10%) is about right, so 50% off its high of just a few months ago could be closer to bottom than we think.

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## watterinja

The sky has indeed fallen... oh wise ones...  :Sad:

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## Butterfly

350 for the SET is very cheap, the rebound might be spectacular

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## Spin

> the rebound might be spectacular


I reckon it will be....worldwide. The sp500 is due for another big relief rally any day.

......Sitting, watching..... and waiting :Smile:

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## keda

Over the past weeks there have been several strong short lived rallies, if you can call them that, with money entering to waff up real cheap stock for a day or two before then selling off to smash them back down further. Don't kid yourself, whilst money is leaving to prop up other obligations, the big cheeses are not getting poorer.

No wisdom needed, best we can do is guess, but within 5-10 pts the major manipulators know where the bottom is and without any inconsiderately timed bucket kicking that's where it'll stabilise and start to recover.

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## watterinja

> 350 for the SET is very cheap, the rebound might be spectacular


Is there such a thing as a 'firesale' value on any of this stuff? There must be an intrinsic value somewhere - if so, then that's where the real, last-resort botom will surely lie.

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## good2bhappy

the property market in London is still downwards!
I've heard it said that property moves before the stock market.

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## watterinja

Where's the recovery?   :Confused: 

Looks like the stuff is headed towards toxic territory over the range of that chart, at least.

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## Butterfly

> Is there such a thing as a 'firesale' value on any of this stuff? There must be an intrinsic value somewhere


you have to look at it from different angle, so there is not a single parameter to look at

Cheap price to book, high dividend yield, and guess what, a good number of SET companies this quarter have reported record earnings !!! didn't think it was possible but apparently they still manage to perform well,

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## Butterfly

> Where's the recovery?


anyone guess, low investor sentiment seems to dominate these days, the good news is that the crowd is almost always wrong, that's why they never make any money in the stock market  :Smile:

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## baldrick

> Cheap price to book, high dividend yield, and guess what, a good number of SET companies this quarter have reported record earnings !!! didn't think it was possible but apparently they still manage to perform well,


are they telling the truth ?  I would be looking a lot closer at them than just the press releases

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## bkkandrew

> I have been buying massively into the SET recently,


Oh dear, Butterfly's investing 'prowess' strikes again. I note that the SET was at 397 when he posted this...

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## Norton

^Closed at 394.

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## Butterfly

> I note that the SET was at 397 when he posted this...


luckily my stocks didn't suffer much, still flat, nice try bkkandrew  :Smile: 

how your failed predictions doing ?

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## Butterfly

> are they telling the truth ? I would be looking a lot closer at them than just the press releases


now they do, not always the case before. They are following international standard reporting mostly. And they are usually audited by big multi-national audit company, I think 1997 has taught a nice lesson. The SET is super serious about this, no joking this time. That doesn't mean it doesn't stop a few from manipulating shares, or insider trading but at least the reported books are in order. Keep in mind that kind of earnings manipulation also happened more frequently in the US.

Now you can question international reporting standard, but at least they are the same for everyone.

There were a specific instance in 2003, N-PARK, where the company "played" with the books and the shares, but they got nailed badly by the SET. The CEO was sponsoring Thaksin back then, it was mostly a political financing thing. The Stock was a total disaster. It was a profitable company that was used as a financing front to buy a financial minister position. Stock went 300% in less than a year, and went down 99% afterward  :Smile:

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## keda

> Originally Posted by Butterfly
> 
> 
> 350 for the SET is very cheap, the rebound might be spectacular
> 
> 
> Is there such a thing as a 'firesale' value on any of this stuff? There must be an intrinsic value somewhere - if so, then that's where the real, last-resort botom will surely lie.


Contentious but put it this way, don't worry about looking for the bottom because it doesn't exist - it will just happen. 

Right now it's the proverbial falling knife with talk of even breaking 300 which I really doubt will happen without another major upheaval, because much of the other crap going on has already been built in for the firesale. If you buy in at 370-350 your downside should be nominal and upside significant. 

That said and as ever, it's your dd so do your own.

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## Butterfly

^ yep, that's basically it

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## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> I note that the SET was at 397 when he posted this...
> 
> 
> luckily my stocks didn't suffer much, still flat, nice try bkkandrew


'Flat' investments are a good thing in Butterflyworld then?




> how your failed predictions doing ?


You have been warned about your lies before and have had posts deleted as a result. As you well know, each and every one of my predictions about the world economic crisis have been proved correct, despite being rejected and ridiculed by you at the time I made them.

Would you like me to post the hilarious Icelanding banking post you made on this thread too?

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## bkkandrew

> Right now it's the proverbial falling knife with talk of even breaking 300 which I really doubt will happen without another major upheaval, because much of the other crap going on has already been built in for the firesale.


I wonder if this would count as a major 'upheaval'?

https://teakdoor.com/us-domestic-issu...tml#post841942

It shouldn't be for readers of my thread, as I predicted Citigroup's demise as inevitable in June, but I would imagine that many analyists missed my posts on the same thread quoted at that time. :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

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## Rural Surin

A new high of 600 points lost today {US time}....

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## Spin

Today was a bit of a game changer for the US markets. SPX closed below the 2002 lows of 768 at 754. Freefall to 700 seems inevitable.
A pal of mine is calling the Dow bottom at 5650.
I think the worst is yet to come, its clear the fed and p-p-p-p-paulson havent got a fooking clue what they are doing. Flip - flopping left right and centre.
Look out below :Smile: 
Butterflys prediction of 6000 was savaged by a few at the time. It could be only a month away because the economic data coming out everyday is getting worse and there is absolutley nothing to stop this free fall.

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## Rural Surin

^ Right you are Spin. I feel this is the beginning of the end....

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## Butterfly

> 'Flat' investments are a good thing in Butterflyworld then?


yeah, flat is good these days. I bet you are losing a ton, but you can't face it  :Smile: 




> You have been warned about your lies before and have had posts deleted as a result


Warned ? by who ? a mod ? posts deleted ? where ? now you are really going insane, this is hillarious  :Smile: 




> As you well know, each and every one of my predictions about the world economic crisis have been proved correct


which one would that be ? oil going to 200 ? making everyone bankrupt ? or the invasion that would start WW3 ? or the immediate collapse of the banking system ? or that all banks would go bankrupt ? or was it that governments would all go bankrupt ? can't believe you actually think you have a case here after all your lies and made up facts. I predict you will be in a mental institution soon, how is that for a prediction  :Smile: 




> Would you like me to post the hilarious Icelanding banking post you made on this thread too?


We all saw it already when you got confused with the numbers, thought that IceSave was the National bank, making false claims about non-UK savers etc... etc... don't you know no shame for your exposure of denial reality ?




> Butterflys prediction of 6000 was savaged by a few at the time.


gee, I guess I should open a thread about it ala Bkkandrew and claim some kind of victory and start making all kind of linear extrapollation from it saying it's the end of the world etc... and then call myself some kind of worldwide autority ala Bkkandrew  :Smile:

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## watterinja

Folks, I'd doubt that ANYONE would have the shear stupidity to even try & call a bottom at this point. The curves are almost all in freefall based on fear & a realisation that the current US administration doesn't have a clue. 

The stocks are on their way down to firesale value & below, as I see it - whatever value that may be. Perhaps will end up at the value of the paper they are written on.

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## Butterfly

> I'd doubt that ANYONE would have the shear stupidity to even try & call a bottom at this point.


Market timing is an impossible task, nobody can claim of doing it right, unless your name is Bkkandrew of course  :Smile: 




> Perhaps will end up at the value of the paper they are written on.


It's also a possibility, unlikely, but when it's panic time, no fundamental will prevail




> The curves are almost all in freefall based on fear & a realisation that the current US administration doesn't have a clue.


I think that's the core of the problem. Markets panic because the bailout plan is not working thanks to the flip flopping of the Treasury Department. With so many fires to put out, the officials have no fucking clue where to start.

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## watterinja

SET flops on recession fears

Bangkok Post | Business news | SET flops on recession fears

A good read...  :Smile:

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## good2bhappy

so what is the SET doing now?

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## Gaudente

to my opinion it is rebounding over the 254 minimum signed 27 Oct. I bought 2 futures a few minutes ago at 269.70 , target 333 signed on 5 Nov.
At these levels, P/E on SET 50 is about 5

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## Butterfly

SET up today,

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## watterinja

Is this all one big SET-up?  :Confused:

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## Mid

> SET up today,


 :rofl: 

yep breaking records , not

be extremely lucky to close above 400 .   :Sad:

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## Spin

> The stocks are on their way down to firesale value & below


If you have a strong resolve, commodity stocks are cheaper now than when records began in 1995.

I saw somebody say on Bloomberg website "everythings priced for armegeddon" which pretty much sums the current climate up for me.

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## baldrick

> The                                                                      proximate cause of this week's retreat in equity markets to the lowest levels                                                                      since the 1990s was the collapse of loans to American commercial real estate,                                                                      which in turn implies the collapse of insurance companies and pension funds.                                                                      Americans who relied on private pension funds, whether through their employer                                                                      or insurance companies, will lose part or all of their pensions.


hey hey , all those commercial real estate loans that were packaged up and onsold - no consumers = commercial real estate defaults - sh1t meet fan

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## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> 'Flat' investments are a good thing in Butterflyworld then?
> 
> 
> yeah, flat is good these days. I bet you are losing a ton, but you can't face it


Better is in cash and some gold (physical, not Comex), which I have been since September 2007. So I am happy.

I have gained from some shorts though.

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## Jet Gorgon

> ^
> Some free Thai Bev products I expect


Thai Bev delayed listing, no? The monks don't want it on the board wither -- ban alcohol.

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## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> You have been warned about your lies before and have had posts deleted as a result
> 
> 
> Warned ? by who ? a mod ? posts deleted ? where ? now you are really going insane, this is hillarious


Warned by me on this thread:

https://teakdoor.com/us-domestic-issu...tml#post527819

In the same thread you have had posts deleted for trolling and lies.

Insanity appears to be a subject you have a close affinity with.

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## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> As you well know, each and every one of my predictions about the world economic crisis have been proved correct
> 
> 
> which one would that be ?


A gave you a starter list here:




> Well, lets have a checklist:
> 
> My OP on this thread, posted in January, contained a prediction of bank failure of Wachovia;In March I included WaMu for failure on this thread;In April I predicted the failure of insurers that insured mortgage debt, e.g. AIG;In May I predicted the failure of B&B and HBOS;Last month (to howls of derision from Butterfly et al) I predicted Martial Law in the US. I note that this was a threat made in the bailout debate in Congress yesterday.I am turning out to be quite a lucky 'fortune teller', aren't I?

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## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> As you well know, each and every one of my predictions about the world economic crisis have been proved correct
> 
> 
>  oil going to 200 ?


Peak oil is a certainty and the only factor depressing otherwise annually increasing demand is the economic collapse. Once this passes (and eventually it will) there is only one direction in the price of oil. And, indeed, unless oil alternatives are found, this will bankrupt many that have survived the current collapse.

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## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> As you well know, each and every one of my predictions about the world economic crisis have been proved correct
> 
> 
> the invasion that would start WW3 ?


I have never predicted this. It is to your shame that you lie and deceive by trying to pretend that I have.

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> As you well know, each and every one of my predictions about the world economic crisis have been proved correct
> 
> 
> all banks would go bankrupt ? or was it that governments would all go bankrupt ? can't believe you actually think you have a case here after all your lies and made up facts. I predict you will be in a mental institution soon, how is that for a prediction


Nope, again, I was specific - The US banking system and a US Federal default. And we are rolling towards that apace.

I note, once again, of your interest/knowledge of insanity, in this case mental institutions.

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> Would you like me to post the hilarious Icelanding banking post you made on this thread too?
> 
> 
> We all saw it already when you got confused with the numbers, thought that IceSave was the National bank, making false claims about non-UK savers etc... etc... don't you know no shame for your exposure of denial reality ?


Nope, wrong again. Here it is:




> A reminder from an Icelander:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 			
> 				"Everything is closed. We couldn't sell our stock or take money from the bank," said Johann Sigurdsson as he left a branch of Landsbanki in downtown Reykjavik.
> 			
> ...

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by Spin
> 
> Butterflys prediction of 6000 was savaged by a few at the time.
> 
> 
> gee, I guess I should open a thread about it ala Bkkandrew and claim some kind of victory and start making all kind of linear extrapollation from it saying it's the end of the world etc... and then call myself some kind of worldwide autority ala Bkkandrew


If you could be bothered to read things, you would see I agreed with you on this topic:




> I would concur with 6000. Q3/Q4 2009...?

----------


## Butterfly

> Warned by me on this thread:


and who are you to warn me ? some kind of supreme authority ? a mod ? or just an idiotic troll looking for attention ? I am warning you that I will keep exposing your trolling lies and silly predictions  :Smile: 




> In the same thread you have had posts deleted for trolling and lies.


I think a few of your insults got removed actually, along with my replies to them. This is hardly the same thing, but in your silly little world everything is possible. 




> Once this passes (and eventually it will) there is only one direction in the price of oil


Doesn't this contradict with your whole predictions assumptions ? a complete destruction of the financial system ? logic conflict here as usual. Oh you could say I predict that oil will go up sometimes in the next 200 years. Yeah, that's a great prediction. Can I make one too ? our civilization will disappear in the next 1000 years !!!

----------


## baldrick

^^  ^ can you 2 cnuts fcuk off and play with each others cocks in MKP

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> Warned by me on this thread:
> 
> 
> and who are you to warn me ? some kind of supreme authority ? a mod ? or just an idiotic troll looking for attention ?


No, just someone who detests lies being posted. Like these lies for instance:




> I am warning you that I will keep exposing your trolling lies and silly predictions





> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> In the same thread you have had posts deleted for trolling and lies.
> 
> 
> I think a few of your insults got removed actually, along with my replies to them. This is hardly the same thing, but in your silly little world everything is possible.


Incorrect - and you know it.




> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> Once this passes (and eventually it will) there is only one direction in the price of oil
> 
> 
> Doesn't this contradict with your whole predictions assumptions ? a complete destruction of the financial system ? logic conflict here as usual. Oh you could say I predict that oil will go up sometimes in the next 200 years. Yeah, that's a great prediction. Can I make one too ? our civilization will disappear in the next 1000 years !!!


The current economic collapse will not last forever, perhaps 7-10 years. If you cannot look beyond event horizons that is your shortcoming, not mine.

----------


## bkkandrew

> ^^ ^ can you 2 cnuts fcuk off and play with each others cocks in MKP


That maybe an aim of Butterfly's, but I just aim to set the record straight once he posts lies about what has been said. The problem that this happens often is not down to me.

----------


## good2bhappy

shame this has turned into a shitfest as bkkandrews comments are normaly worth reading

----------


## Butterfly

> bkkandrews comments are normaly worth reading


yeah, I guess they are when you like to listen to bed time stories with princess, trolls and witches  :Smile:

----------


## Butterfly

> The current economic collapse will not last forever, perhaps 7-10 years.


so it's not really a collapse, more like a crisis. Changing your story again ? how surprising. 

Do you know what collapse means ? if a montain collapse, does it take a few hundred years to rise again ?

----------


## keda

Was a good thread, fellas... :Wink:

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> The current economic collapse will not last forever, perhaps 7-10 years.
> 
> 
> so it's not really a collapse, more like a crisis. Changing your story again ? how surprising.


No change - do have you some difficulty reading?




> Do you know what collapse means ? if a montain collapse, does it take a few hundred years to rise again ?


As its population was 482 in 2004, it would not take much to 'rebuild', however I can't see what this has to do with economics, being such a small town in an irrelevant country.

----------


## good2bhappy

Thanks for the red Butterfly!

----------


## good2bhappy

That was totally uncalled for!
Have a green to show you what I think of your action

----------


## Butterfly

> As its population was 482 in 2004, it would not take much to 'rebuild', however I can't see what this has to do with economics, being such a small town in an irrelevant country.


Ok you lost me here !!! forgot you meds ?




> Thanks for the red Butterfly!


I always reward ignorance and his supporters with reds  :Smile:

----------


## good2bhappy

so what economic or finance qualification do you hold Butterfly?

----------


## Butterfly

^ I have a better question: what are yours ?  :Smile:

----------


## good2bhappy

^ you are the one claiming I am ignorant!

----------


## good2bhappy

Not a smart answer Butterfly!
Evasion.

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> As its population was 482 in 2004, it would not take much to 'rebuild', however I can't see what this has to do with economics, being such a small town in an irrelevant country.
> 
> 
> Ok you lost me here !!! forgot you meds ?


I assumed you were talking about your home town:

Montain - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia




> Thanks for the red Butterfly!


 
Dow drops 508 points,...22-11-2008 03:39 PMButterflycatching up with your reds, I owe you a few dozens, lying troll  :Smile: 

Standard Butterfly practice. Anyway G2BH, my green should more than compensate. Butterfly's repo power is so low following years of trolling that his reds don't add up to much.  :Smile:

----------


## Butterfly

> ^ you are the one claiming I am ignorant!


hence my question, what are you qualifications ? evasion ?




> Not a smart answer Butterfly!
> Evasion.


See above  :Smile:

----------


## keda

IF anyone's looking at SET, check out GSTEEL - EPS .36, current price .30 (what did NSM cost??), after tanking from 1.30...looks like someone's been shaking the tree too much.

Even allowing for the CDS factor it's worth a heap more than that...anyway, mouth and trousers...I dipped the toe in at .32 and then topped up at .30, so am in the red as of this morning, but when it returns to .47-.48 that's my immigration deposit + exes covered for next year...fok it, someone's taking the piss.

----------


## watterinja

Good day to buy PAD shares?   :Confused:

----------


## Butterfly

some stocks are now paying 22% dividends, solid business being heavily discounted, and reported double earnings and yet the local monkeys trash it, no fucking clue, like it was a casino to them  :Smile:

----------


## keda

No rationale at all, just looking for bad news though it's already built in.  Haven't looked but this one stands out and last I checked (bad conn) it was struggling to stay yellow. 

My max loss is normally a religious 10%, but on this one will either sit it out or double up if it gets to .26-.27, even with SET expected to tank another 10-15%.

----------


## bkkandrew

So, 384 for the SET. I make that a 3.4% loss for Butterfly following his 'MASSIVE' buy-in.

Good luck with that. Maybe a PAD takeover of the SET will help staunch your losses? :Smile:

----------


## Butterfly

> I make that a 3.4% loss for Butterfly following his 'MASSIVE' buy-in.


nice try, bkka, again showing your misunderstand of how markets works and how to compute performance, could explain your misunderstanding of everything financial  :Smile: 

The index is down, but since I am not invested in the Index, I am not sure how you could conclude that I am also down 3% ? again made up facts and extrapolation from you, the usual. Technically I could be even be up or even more down than the Index.  And to answer your question, I am still flat, about -0.5% from last time I bought. I am still leading the index by 50% for the year though, so not too bad  :Smile:

----------


## bkkandrew

^

Question: When is a loss not a loss?

Answer: When its in Butterflyworld!

----------


## lom

Question for you bkkandrew:

Has every stock on the SET lost 3.4% or is it some kind of an average  :Smile:

----------


## bkkandrew

^Clearly the SET is a weighted average of the stocks listed on it. Your actualy loss will depend on which constituent socks you have purchased. Butterfly seems to be claiming success that his stocks have 'only' lost 0.5%.

On the other hand, having been in cash since Sept 07, my money has earned around 10%.

----------


## Butterfly

> Question: When is a loss not a loss?


You wouldn't know what a profit is bkka, you couldn't even add the numbers from IceSave Financial statements, remember how you screwed that up, that was hysterical  :Smile: 




> Has every stock on the SET lost 3.4% or is it some kind of an average


It's the market cap performance of the SET, a composite Index. Bigger size companies will have a bigger impact than smaller companies. So a big drop in Siam Cement would drag the whole index even if you had 100 small stocks going up.




> On the other hand, having been in cash since Sept 07, my money has earned around 10%.


Hum, so savings accounts are paying 10% now ? I think it's pretty clear you are full of it, there is no cash accounts that pays 10%, unless it's ICESAVE of course  :rofl:

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> Question: When is a loss not a loss?
> 
> 
> You wouldn't know what a profit is bkka, you couldn't even add the numbers from IceSave Financial statements, remember how you screwed that up, that was hysterical


Utter bollocks, as usual. You were shamed and embarrassed. I will repost the infamous Icesave post here if you persist in your lies.




> Originally Posted by lom
> 
> Has every stock on the SET lost 3.4% or is it some kind of an average
> 
> 
> It's the market cap performance of the SET, a composite Index. Bigger size companies will have a bigger impact than smaller companies. So a big drop in Siam Cement would drag the whole index even if you had 100 small stocks going up.


That is why I said it was a weighted index. I assume you know what that means?




> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> On the other hand, having been in cash since Sept 07, my money has earned around 10%.
> 
> 
> Hum, so savings accounts are paying 10% now ? I think it's pretty clear you are full of it, there is no cash accounts that pays 10%, unless it's ICESAVE of course


Nationwide paid 6.5% up until 2-weeks ago. over the 16-months I have been in cash, you will find that compounds out at around 10%.

Do you need help with useing the toilet and other basic things too?

----------


## Butterfly

> Utter bollocks, as usual. You were shamed and embarrassed. I will repost the infamous Icesave post here if you persist in your lies.


You are probably the most intellectually dishonest person ever, even after AA and Boon Mee, you are a complete fraud




> That is why I said it was a weighted index.


it could be price weighted, so you need to specify how it is weighted, otherwise it doesn't mean anything, you miss the most important part as usual, since you have no clue on what you are writing  :Smile: 




> Nationwide paid 6.5% up until 2-weeks ago. over the 16-months I have been in cash, you will find that compounds out at around 10%.


lol !!! again your problem with computing numbers and being specific instead of being vague and misleading in your statements. Only you would disregard that little detail out of sheer ignorance or just to promote misleading statement. So if I follow your logic I have actually earned 23%, but that wouldn't mean anything because I didn't specify the time frame or the annual rate of return. Silly Troll.

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> Utter bollocks, as usual. You were shamed and embarrassed. I will repost the infamous Icesave post here if you persist in your lies.
> 
> 
> You are probably the most intellectually dishonest person ever, even after AA and Boon Mee, you are a complete fraud


Says the person who lies and spreads false information. :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic): 




> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> That is why I said it was a weighted index.
> 
> 
> it could be price weighted, so you need to specify how it is weighted, otherwise it doesn't mean anything, you miss the most important part as usual, since you have no clue on what you are writing


And it could have been weighted by numbers of vowels in the companies' names. :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic): 




> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> Nationwide paid 6.5% up until 2-weeks ago. over the 16-months I have been in cash, you will find that compounds out at around 10%.
> 
> 
> lol !!! again your problem with computing numbers and being specific instead of being vague and misleading in your statements. Only you would disregard that little detail out of sheer ignorance or just to promote misleading statement. So if I follow your logic I have actually earned 23%, but that wouldn't mean anything because I didn't specify the time frame or the annual rate of return. Silly Troll.


Not clear? Which word were you stuck on when I posted this:




> On the other hand, having been in cash since Sept 07, my money has earned around 10%.

----------


## keda

> So, 384 for the SET. I make that a 3.4% loss for Butterfly following his 'MASSIVE' buy-in.
> 
> Good luck with that. Maybe a PAD takeover of the SET will help staunch your losses?


I started buying back in last week and more this...looking at it unemotionally must confess it's a bit dumb considering SET is still on a downturn but couldn't resist...now will stay with my pick and accumulate to double the further it drops...the only way this one gets away is by going belly up.

----------


## Butterfly

> And it could have been weighted by numbers of vowels in the companies' names


yeah, you have no clue as usual. For example, the Dow30 is price-weighted and not cap weighted, which makes it biased toward high price stocks. Did you know that ? of course not.




> Not clear? Which word were you stuck on when I posted this:


yeah, your standard operating procedure is too be fuzzy and unspecific, like those IceSave numbers, and that infinite price elasticity cockup. You are fucking priceless.

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> And it could have been weighted by numbers of vowels in the companies' names
> 
> 
> yeah, you have no clue as usual. For example, the Dow30 is price-weighted and not cap weighted, which makes it biased toward high price stocks. Did you know that ? of course not.


Since I was the majority shareholder in a FTSE 250 company, the answer to your question is 'yes'...

No-one is fooled by your ranting, lies and attempts at bullying here.




> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> Not clear? Which word were you stuck on when I posted this:
> 
> 
> yeah, your standard operating procedure is too be fuzzy and unspecific, like those IceSave numbers, and that infinite price elasticity cockup. You are fucking priceless.


I think you will find I was being quite specific:




> On the other hand, having been in cash since Sept 07, my money has earned around 10%.


I will ask again, in this sentence, which word were you stuck on?

----------


## Butterfly

> Since I was the majority shareholder in a FTSE 250 company, the answer to your question is 'yes'...


more fantasy from our boy bkkandrew, were you also the CEO of a major company in the FTSE 250  :rofl: 




> No-one is fooled by your ranting, lies and attempts at bullying here.


I'll say. You are the one making unfounded claims, lied when exposed, and stalk with your reds when everything else fails  :Smile:

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> Since I was the majority shareholder in a FTSE 250 company, the answer to your question is 'yes'...
> 
> 
> more fantasy from our boy bkkandrew, were you also the CEO of a major company in the FTSE 250


No, majority shareholder at time of IPO. Not that you would know what that means...




> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> No-one is fooled by your ranting, lies and attempts at bullying here.
> 
> 
> I'll say. You are the one making unfounded claims, lied when exposed, and stalk with your reds when everything else fails


Again, every member of this board that engages with you know that you are simply describing yourself.

Pretty sad really.

----------


## Butterfly

> No, majority shareholder at time of IPO.


and yet you live in a 5,000 THB condo on Ratchada  :rofl: 

get real bkka, will you, I don't think anyone is buying your lies anymore, exposed too many times  :Smile:

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> No, majority shareholder at time of IPO.
> 
> 
> and yet you live in a 5,000 THB condo on Ratchada 
> 
> get real bkka, will you, I don't think anyone is buying your lies anymore, exposed too many times


Nope, country retreat in the UK, aforementioned apartment on Ratchada, mia noi set up in an apartment in On Nut and other boltholes to boot.

Jealousy really gets to you, doesn't it Butterfly?

----------


## Butterfly

> Nope, country retreat in the UK,


Let me guess, your parent estate  :Smile: 




> Jealousy really gets to you, doesn't it Butterfly?


oh yeah, I am very jealous  :rofl:

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> Nope, country retreat in the UK,
> 
> 
> Let me guess, your parent estate


As my mother died penniless many years ago and my father has not worked since the 1980's due to his medical condition, this suggestion is both offensive and ridiculous.

In other words, a normal post from you.

----------


## Gaudente

> to my opinion it is rebounding over the 254 minimum signed 27 Oct. I bought 2 futures a few minutes ago at 269.70 , target 333 signed on 5 Nov.
> At these levels, P/E on SET 50 is about 5


I have just sold my 2 futures at 280.20 . Market is going further up (is 284 now) but to my opinion they are underestimating the damage from airport blockade , just think both THAI and AOT are in SET50.

----------


## Rattanaburi

Sounds like things are heading south at the moment.

Dow futures...
Pre-Market: Stock Trading Before the Markets Open from CNNMoney.com

They may change though with the rollercoaster rides nowadays

----------


## bkkandrew

Well Butterfly "I invested massively when the SET was at 397" had another bad day:

Last Update : 01 Dec 2008 16:59:28 Status : Close   *Last**Change**Value
(M.Baht)*SET390.92
-10.92
11,581.77SET100573.63
-19.00
10,191.06SET50270.86
-8.97
9,446.30

----------


## Gaudente

> IF anyone's looking at SET, check out GSTEEL - EPS .36, current price .30 (what did NSM cost??), after tanking from 1.30...looks like someone's been shaking the tree too much.
> 
> Even allowing for the CDS factor it's worth a heap more than that...anyway, mouth and trousers...I dipped the toe in at .32 and then topped up at .30, so am in the red as of this morning, but when it returns to .47-.48 that's my immigration deposit + exes covered for next year...fok it, someone's taking the piss.


G Steel EPS are mostly fake , they wrote a huge amount of "negative goodwill reversal" comparing book value of NSM shares to the price they paid. Yet if they had taken the quoted price of GJS (new NSM name) they should have booked a huge loss instead.
My advice is to stay away from this one, it's too fishy.

----------


## Butterfly

> Well Butterfly "I invested massively when the SET was at 397" had another bad day:


again not invested in the Index  :rofl:

----------


## bkkandrew

^But your stocks are in the index, no?

Oh, yes - here it is:




> I have been buying massively into the SET recently,

----------


## Butterfly

The SET as Stock Exchange of Thailand, not the SET Index

but you wouldn't know the difference, troll  :rofl:

----------


## Butterfly

> they wrote a huge amount of "negative goodwill reversal" comparing book value of NSM shares to the price they paid


that's actual good news, impairment of goodwill is usually how it is done, no doubt it will impact their future earnings, but at least it will be off the book and reflect more accurately the reality,

wouldn't buy that one now, despite its potential, and wait the next quarter for improved earnings ex-impairment

----------


## Norton

> wouldn't buy that one now, despite its potential


Does anyone know of a company producing yellow or red shirts?  Think has potential.

----------


## Gaudente

> Originally Posted by Gaudente
> 
> they wrote a huge amount of "negative goodwill reversal" comparing book value of NSM shares to the price they paid
> 
> 
> that's actual good news, impairment of goodwill is usually how it is done, no doubt it will impact their future earnings, but at least it will be off the book and reflect more accurately the reality,
> 
> wouldn't buy that one now, despite its potential, and wait the next quarter for improved earnings ex-impairment


It was not an impairment, it was a revaluation !
They called it "excess of interest in the net assets value of subsidiary that over purchase cost" : 3,386,259,000 baht out of 4,650,897,000 baht net earnings declared for the nine months period ended 30 Sept 2008

----------


## Gaudente

> Originally Posted by Butterfly
> 
> wouldn't buy that one now, despite its potential
> 
> 
> Does anyone know of a company producing yellow or red shirts? Think has potential.


no textile company has any potential wherever.

----------


## Butterfly

> They called it "excess of interest in the net assets value of subsidiary that over purchase cost" :


that's basically the definition of impairment, they recognize the goodwill was crap and not recoverable and are adjusting current earnings

would need to read the full story to see what really happened and how management decided to impair that one,

----------


## Gaudente

> Originally Posted by Gaudente
> 
> They called it "excess of interest in the net assets value of subsidiary that over purchase cost" :
> 
> 
> that's basically the definition of impairment, they recognize the goodwill was crap and not recoverable and are adjusting current earnings
> 
> would need to read the full story to see what really happened and how management decided to impair that one,


Just go to www.set.or.th and download the file.
I repeat, they booked the 3.386.259.000 baht as *revenue* 
Here's the note 5 of quarterly report explaining that:
*5.     * *Change in accounting policy for recording negative goodwill*
During the current period, the Company changed its accounting policy for recording negative goodwill in investment in subsidiary in the consolidated financial statements by recognised the excess remaining after reassessment as income in the income statements, in compliance with Accounting Standard No. 43 (Revised 2007) regarding Business Combinations under which the acquirer must reassess the identification and measurement of the acquirees identifiable assets, liabilities and contingent liabilities and the measurement of the cost of the business combination. If the interest of acquirer in the net fair value of the transaction is higher than cost at the acquisition date, the acquirer must recognise the excess amount after that reassessment in the income statements immediately.
In this regard, the Company has restated the previous periods consolidated financial statements as though the Company had recognised the excess of the Companys interest in the net fair value of assets, liabilities and contingent liabilities of the subsidiary over the purchase cost, as income. The effects of the change to the consolidated income statements for the nine-month period ended 30 September 2008 *are to increase net income by Baht 3,386.3 million (Baht 0.26 per share)* (2007: increase net income by Baht 248.2 million (Baht 0.02 per share)). The cumulative effect of the change in accounting policy has been presented under the heading of Cumulative effect of the change in accounting policy for negative goodwill in the consolidated statements of changes in shareholders equity.
Such change in accounting policy no effect to the separate financial statements.

----------


## Butterfly

^ ok got you, it's a restatement, apparently they bought some company too cheap and need to re-evaluate the impact on the financial statements, basically they need to recognize the discount as income,

not the first time I saw this, some companies get bought out publicly on the cheap so they will "officially" undervalue them and fuck over the investors, only to re-evaluate the deal and declare the discount as income, with of course the cooperation of management in the target company

hum, nice  :Smile:

----------


## bkkandrew

> The SET as Stock Exchange of Thailand, not the SET Index
> 
> but you wouldn't know the difference, troll


So are your shares in the SET index and, if so, which one?

Or are you once again trying to wriggle out of a ridiculous financial statement in a post on this board, this time demonstrating your financial amateurishness?

----------


## bkkandrew

The SET now down 2.8% since Butterfly's "Massive" buy-in to stand at 386.53...

 :rofl:

----------


## Spin

^ I think Butterfly has pretty much limited his downside and can live with the consequences. 
Also, its quite possible that his stocks are unchanged or even up. Just because the index is down it does'nt mean his positions are. Maybe he bought protection with put options?
You really dont know, and I really dont know, although I'm interested to know exactly what he bought and how many.

----------


## bkkandrew

^Which is why I asked him what he bought, but he hasn't answered....

I think people can draw their own conclusions from the silence.  :Smile:

----------


## Butterfly

> I think Butterfly has pretty much limited his downside and can live with the consequences.
> Also, its quite possible that his stocks are unchanged or even up. Just because the index is down it does'nt mean his positions are. Maybe he bought protection with put options?
> You really dont know, and I really dont know, although I'm interested to know exactly what he bought and how many.


I have a very low beta, which means when the markets go up 100%, I might only be up 30%, likewise for the downside, I am limited. The relationship is not as linear and the downside is actually lower, which is good, in particular in this market. There are quite a few published source to do that, but most investors are looking at the maximum return, not risk. I am still leading the market by 50% for the year even though I am flat !!! my portfolio was not always in low beta though,




> Which is why I asked him what he bought, but he hasn't answered....


no, you didn't, you just assumed I was buying the SET index, troll  :Smile:

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> Which is why I asked him what he bought, but he hasn't answered....
> 
> 
> no, you didn't, you just assumed I was buying the SET index, troll


Yes I did - and I note you _still_ haven't answered the question...

----------


## Spin

A good reminder of how fcuked up the markets really are is when the Dow drops 700 points in a day and the headlines read "Dow plunges most since _October_"

----------


## bkkandrew

^And as significant was the fact there were no headlines, more like a footnote....

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by baldrick
> 
> are they telling the truth ? I would be looking a lot closer at them than just the press releases
> 
> 
> now they do, not always the case before. They are following international standard reporting mostly. And they are usually audited by big multi-national audit company, I think 1997 has taught a nice lesson. The SET is super serious about this, no joking this time. That doesn't mean it doesn't stop a few from manipulating shares, or insider trading but at least the reported books are in order. Keep in mind that kind of earnings manipulation also happened more frequently in the US.
> 
> Now you can question international reporting standard, but at least they are the same for everyone.
> 
> There were a specific instance in 2003, N-PARK, where the company "played" with the books and the shares, but they got nailed badly by the SET. The CEO was sponsoring Thaksin back then, it was mostly a political financing thing. The Stock was a total disaster. It was a profitable company that was used as a financing front to buy a financial minister position. Stock went 300% in less than a year, and went down 99% afterward


So then Butterfly, do you still feel so confidence in the published figures of constituent companies?

Hope this wasn't one of your share tips:

https://teakdoor.com/business-finance...tml#post869469 (Thailand : SECC loses B1.36bn, 476 cars missing)




> *STOCKS
> 
> **SECC loses B1.36bn, 476 cars missing* 
> DARANA CHUDASRI
> Tuesday December 09, 2008
> 
> The embattled luxury auto importer SEC Auto Sales and Services Plc (SECC) estimates that it suffered damage of 1.36 billion baht from an apparent case of internal fraud involving company chairman Sompong Witthayaraksan. 
> 
> SECC told the Stock Exchange of Thailand yesterday that a preliminary investigation had found 476 cars missing from the company's warehouse. 
> ...

----------


## Rattanaburi

$700 Billion Bailout Celebrated With Lavish $800 Billion Executive Party




Satire at its best Home | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

----------


## Mid

*SET*........434.52...........-12.49

The Stock Exchange of Thailand: Your Investment Resource for Thailand's Capital Market

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## Mid

SET........440.40..........+6.32

The Stock Exchange of Thailand: Your Investment Resource for Thailand's Capital Market

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