#  >  > Living And Legal Affairs In Thailand >  >  > Doing Things Legally >  >  Baht to Dollar: The Dollar index

## Spin

For those of us paid in Dollars, the exchange rate against the baht does tend to cause some anxiety. The Dollar has lost about 25% of its strengh against the baht in the last couple of years.
Most of us look towards Thailand and what the goverment is doing to keep things at acceptable levels for its export based economy. Theres more to it than that though.

The link shows the Nybot USD index, this provides a general indication of the international value of the US Dollar by averaging the exchange rates between the US Dollar and six major world currencies.

Those curriencies are:

EUR: Euro
JPY: Japanese yen
GBP: Bristish pound 
CAD: Canadian Dollar 
SEK: Swedish Krona 
CHF: Swiss Franc

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## Spin

Lets have a look at the chart for the last month.
The key thing to notice is that the value never dips lower than the 80 level.


The upward blip in the bottom right hand corner has made the telegraphic- transfer rate change ove the last few days from 33.3 to todays 34.01

Lets hope the rally continues :Smile:

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## Spin

Here's the one year chart and you can clearly see the downward trend that is causing you to perhaps think about how many beers you can drink each month :Smile:

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## peterpan

I would guess if you have one that tracked US debt it would follow the inverse of the 50 day moving average. If it was a stock you wouldn't want to put too much money into it until the support level at 80 was tested a couple more times.

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## blackgang

When it got over 34 today I went to the bank and got my "go to CM money" for next week, that should make it continue to climb to 35 anyway. :Smile:

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## playon

I wouldn't do any long term betting on the dollar.  I'd be buying Chinese RMB as it will probably get to 5 or 6 to he dollar in the next couple of years...

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## peterpan

> Here's the one year chart and you can clearly see the downward trend that is causing you to perhaps think about how many beers you can drink each month


Yea, the graph looks like a "dead cat bounce to me"

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## Sir Burr

Looks like a double bottom which is supposed to be a bullish signal.

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## britmaveric

$ is alright, gonna be back for a killing before long.  :Smile:

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## Marmite the Dog

> Most of us look towards Thailand and what the goverment is doing to keep things at acceptable levels for its export based economy.


So, how can the Thai government make the Dollar stronger?

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## ray23

Boy this is a complicated one, what has it done to me reduced my savings account money by 27&#37; .

What's happening yes the US Dollar is down, and there doesn't seem to be any will to do a thing about it. Might be because it makes US products less expensive for export. I have talked to friends in the states and they haven't noticed anything about the dollars strength basically a non issue to them.

Here In Thailand with all that is going on hard to understand the Baht appreciating beyond the other currencies in the region. Especially when take into considreation the unstable climate at the moment.

On the positive side they have a huge amount of funds on hand, simply because they stopped spending money Hedge fund flowed into the area as the currency wa easy to manipulate for profits. Steps were and have been taken to get the baht at a more accurate figure to the other countries in the region. So far at most they seem to be able to stabilize it.

There is nothing Thailand can do about the dollars value. Howeve the baht appreciated to a level where many industries can not compete as thier products have become to expensive. Why buy a gidget here if you can get the same gidget in Vietnam for less. Thai companies are relocating to Vietnam, to compete. As a matter of fact the Thai government sponsored seminar on relocating a business to Vietnam.

Some people have made huge sums of money on this. But the majority of Thai's as usual will pay for it. Large factories have been closing, the housing market as of today is down drastically, How many jobs in construction are going to be lost along with the factory jobs.

The NPL rates are going up in Thai banks and we are at the tip of the ice berg.

Thi is odd as this strated much differently then 97, in that there are huge cash reserves and the economy for all intent and purpose was performing much better then could have been expected. Actually at a level that seemed to good to be true.

I have followed this on a daily basis for about eight months now, simply because I didn't understand any of it. Can't say that I understand it now. I do know I'm not alone. None of the experts seem to know how to approach it.

It was odd to watch on many days you would doom and gloom in the Bangkok Post on the same day another article where eveything was roses, in the  Nation and vice versa. Some days opposing articles would actually appear in the same paper. So it became evident early on that most of what was printed was smoke and mirrors. Therfore it was impossible to get the real picture.

It trully is very complicated and I know I haven't given it justice, but in short form I think that would be impossible.

What does all this lead me to believe, the baht will depreciate to the dollar in the long run. Not because of the states but because of Thailand. The only thing that I see saving the dollar at the moment is the world stepping in, it may or may not. But the consequnces of not doing that is going to be devistating on the world economy.

We have seen in the last week what the U.S. economy really means to the world, through the sub prime mess. Right wrong or indifferent What hurts it will be shared by the world.

Does any of this really mean anything heck no just my humble oppinnion.

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## sabang

What pisses me off is that I'm sitting in mostly Aussie dollars, which have done fine for me.
But the sub prime bollox in the US has caused the AUD to go sharply down against the USD, a so called 'flight to quality'.  :Confused: 
Riddle me that.

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## Gerbil

I keep all mine under the mattress.  :bunny3:

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## forreachingme

there is may be a little crisis spirit around, not bad as in that case more people drop big bucks bags in Switzerland;

and the CHF takes value, what is actually the case; 

not sure if i'm rigth but most prolly...

few days ago 26 to the baht and now 28.3, goody...

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## Butterfly

The sub-prime mess was a disaster waiting to happen, anyone could see it, and yet nothing was done. See the thread in Issues about it.

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## Spin

Its another day of slow motion carnage on the Dow Jones today, sub prime worries continue to cause problems. Stocks are back to May prices right now with the Index set to touch 13,000 :Sad: 

The Dollar on the other hand continues its rally, heres the monthly chart...



Just checking the values against the GBP, that is now 1.99 it was 2.06 about 10 days ago.

Lets hope tomorrow brings a bit of movement in the Dollar to Baht.

My prediction: 34.2

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## Spin

Well today it lifted a little, i see 34.08 as an average figure quoted today.

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## Spin

Heres the monthly chart to date...



Now things are hotting up, the Dollar continues north and I can see on shore TT rates of 34.55.
The pound has also been pushed back to 1.96

So it seems clear that this Dollar index has a major effect on the rate with baht, which makes it a good reference to where things are heading and where they came from.

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## mrsquirrel

I want to see what happened to the baht and the won in 1997

Where can I find it?:

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## Butterfly

all the markets are in kernel panic mode

not a good sign

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## buad hai

> I want to see what happened to the baht and the won in 1997
> 
> Where can I find it?:



FXHistory - Historical Currency Exchange Rates

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## keda

Uptrend the past couple of weeks from 33.02, they were offering 34.18 in CR.

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## Spin

The Fed has just cut the discounted interest rate from 6.25 to 5.75&#37; the overnight rate remains the same at 5.25%

linky

This has had am immediate effect on the US markets, the DOW was due to open 130 points down but has swung to 160 points up.

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## Butterfly

BREAKING NEWS: 
The Fed approved a half-percentage point cut in its discount rate on loans to banks, declaring that increased economic uncertainty poses risks for U.S. business growth. Full article coming soon.

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## Butterfly

^^ yep, the window rate is down, highly symbolic though as this is a rate for Banks only (for their borrowing needs, rarely used by banks themselves or their clients)

However that would means more widespread cuts ahead

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## Spin

Well its having a welcome effect on the US markets that open shortly :Smile: 
Dow up 1.7&#37; Nasdaq up 3%

The stocks i bought yesterday during the 20$ gold sell off are showing 2000USD profit in under 24hrs :Smile:

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## mrsquirrel

Interesting.

It's just a steady up and down all the way from 96 to 07

troughs in 97 '00 '04

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## Butterfly

> The stocks i bought yesterday during the 20$ gold sell off are showing 2000USD profit in under 24hrs


Those high variations is how you make money, having the guts to buy when it's falling and sell when it's getting high

Most people will buy when it's getting too high, and sell when everybody is selling, a recipe for disaster

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## Butterfly

For those trading NZD and other "exotic" currencies, here is an interesting story explaining the recent surge against the USD




> Currency 'Carry Trade'
> Becomes Harder Play
> Amid Aversion to Risk
> By CRAIG KARMIN and YUKARI IWATANI KANE
> August 18, 2007; Page B1
> 
> As if many hedge funds and other global investors weren't having a tough enough time during the market selloff, now one of their favorite bets looks to be in jeopardy: the "carry trade."
> 
> This popular strategy -- where investors borrow money in countries with low interest rates, such as Japan, to invest in assets in countries with higher rates -- has been a source of tremendous profits for currency speculators, companies and even Japanese small investors for years.
> ...

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## blackgang

It is damn near 35 now and will settle down at 35.50, so we be doing a tad better from here on.

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## Spin

Ok, time to takje another look at this index as things go considerably worse over the months since last August. You can see from the chart below that we came a long way below support at the 80 point but now its showing signs of life around the 72 mark:

It certainly looks like the dollar may have had a floor put under it now that the FED has probably finished with easing interest rates.
The Dollar has been rising, lets take a closer look at that chart showing recent activity for the last calendar month, the index started to rise about the time the fed did the last cut and hinted that it was done cutting, that was around the 20th April

In the time since the 20th the exchange rate to the baht has moved from approx 31.3 to todays T/T rate which is just about 32.10, its not a big change but it reverses the trend and I certainly hope it continues.

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## Spin

Bloomberg has more on this, here

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## buad hai

> Bloomberg has more on this, here





> May 12 (Bloomberg) -- For the first time since December 2005, futures traders are turning bullish on the dollar.


Great news; just after I've spent nearly three million baht's worth of cheap dollars. Where's the noose?

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## Norton

> I want to see what happened to the baht and the won in 1997


Good luck finding it but my poor memory tells me the won, Taiwan Dollar, Ringgat, peso and most other Asian currencies, took a dump along with the baht but not sure to the same degree.

Oops.  Missed BH post.

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## Norton

> Great news; just after I've spent nearly three million baht's worth of cheap dollars. Where's the noose?


Just finished my house also.  I see your in line with my record in most things.  But high sell low. :Sad:

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## Spin

BH, you did say that you are fixed income dollar demoninated, this is good news for you long term if it holds up! :Smile:

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## buad hai

> BH, you did say that you are fixed income dollar demoninated, this is good news for you long term if it holds up!


Indeed I am. I suppose that just when the dollar reaches new highs I'll have completed my "penury living" training!

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## mrsquirrel

> Indeed I am. I suppose that just when the dollar reaches new highs I'll have completed my "penury living" training!


Buad Hai -  you do make me laugh. You remind me a lot of a character I met in Thailand years ago.

His name was Dennis - In his late 40's and ex-hash dealer from Bognoregious in the UK. 
Dennis was unlucky, really unlucky.

 He did a spell in prison because a police man who was visiting his house about a disturbance  lent on his mantelpiece where the dope was hidden and pulled it off the wall revealing the stash.
He felt something was wrong with his body, went to the doctor and found out he had stomach cancer. Had to have his stomach cut out. He travelled with a suitcase full of tincture of morphine, a carry bag of anti-biotics since he lost his pancreas - and a small shoulder bag that had two pairs of shorts and a t-shirt.
He stayed at a friends guest house where he got mauled by a dog down on the beach on the sole of his foot, bitten by my monkey, fell off the porch of his bingalow and messed up his shoulder.
He crashed his motorbike the final day of rental whilst taking it back.
His previous trip to Thailand he had been knocked out riding a banana boat. Had his motorbike stolen that he rented.

He complained about all these things, it never rained it came down in bathtub fulls. Yet he was quite happy when he was complaining.
He was a really nice guy with terrible luck.

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## buad hai

Well, I'm not quite that unlucky, nor am I quite as poor, or shy as I let on here.

I've had a good life, seen a lot of the world, had some wonderful friends, a career that many would envy, accomplished most of my childhood goals and am now retired living what I think is a pretty nice life. 

That said, it's rather amusing to complain about things now and then.

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## Spin

> nor am I quite as poor, or shy as I let on here.


I think most figured that out quite a while ago :Smile: 

Anyways, looking at the numbers if we take March 18th T/T rate of 31.12 and compare it to todays rate of 32.38 its an increase of *4.05%*

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## buad hai

Yep, got just over 32 baht on an ATM withdrawal Tuesday. Maybe I'll be able to bump up my beer quality (quantity?) "real soon now"!

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## Norton

> Maybe I'll be able to bump up my beer quality (quantity?) "real soon now"!


First two for quality, the next ten for quantity.

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## good2bhappy

32.5 minutes ago!
The way to go is up!

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## DrAndy

I am being paid in US$ for the work I am doing at present

So I will have to wait until after the elections and the $ gets stronger again before I use any of it

and the Baht will get weaker too, I hope

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## buad hai

DrAndy -- On another posting rampage....

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## lom

^Don't worry, he'll be gone tomorrow. :bunny3:

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## DrAndy

> ^Don't worry, he'll be gone tomorrow.


Is it tomorrow yet?

See here Buadhai, I am in a small town internet cafe and it is raining, so I cannot do very much except sit in here and send you little messages to make you happy

when the sun comes out, I will not be posting much, promise

meanwhile, the Euro is quite strong, innit?

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## lom

> the Euro is quite strong, innit?


Soon on par with the sterling DrAndy.
Time for a merger methinks..

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## Spin

Well that didnt last long, Dollar fell back to where it came from and baht exchange rate today is 31.86 :Sad:

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## buad hai

Back to drinking at home....

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## Spin

Some banks are offering 33.95 Baht to the Dollar today :Smile: 

SCB

BOT

BBL

1 year dollar index chart here

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## Spin

34.05 today at SCB

If this carries on I'll be rich beyond my wildest dreams and start name dropping german car marques like Chintee soon :Smile:

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## Norton

> If this carries on I'll be rich beyond my wildest dreams and start name dropping german car marques like Chintee soon


Me too.  I'm planning on movin on up myself.  Been checking out that new Tata car. :Smile: 

The whole forex thing is a mystery to me.  The US economy is in the tank, stock market takes a major hit and yet the USD strengthens against the baht. :Confused:

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## britmaveric

Yank economy is resilient and smth to think about when economy is shite worldwide people buy $. (safe/comforting/stable)

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## Spin

^^ Its not easily understood thats for sure. But from the little I observe each day tells me that when oil price rises the dollar weakens. The recent fall in oil price, coupled with recession chatter in yurp has lowered the euro and the Dollar has risen. If oil goes back up towards 130 the rate will go back to 32ish me thinks.

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## Butterfly

> The whole forex thing is a mystery to me. The US economy is in the tank, stock market takes a major hit and yet the USD strengthens against the baht


The US is facing a financial crisis and a cost push inflation,

However, their brutal economic system is better prepared and more flexible than the rest of the world,

they will probably be the first to recover when the storm hits the rest of the world, speculators are betting on the recovery and buying USD against other currencies which have been under heavy speculations for many years before, hence taking their profit and going back to safety with the USD

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## Butterfly

> But from the little I observe each day tells me that when oil price rises the dollar weakens.


The Hotelling principle is very marginal, hence the increase and decrease of the USD fluctuates with the interests earned on the Petro USD,

I think speculators looking for safety are the reason behind the recent surge of the USD, not the oil going down per se

There are cracks everywhere, gold is too expensive, oil is down, the next logical move for speculators is to look for undervalued assets, and the USD is right there, beaten down and ready to go up

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## britmaveric

Think oil is heading to $50-$75 range - bubble has been burst. Commodities are taking a long huge dump.

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## Butterfly

might take a few months, maybe even a year for the bubble to burst entirely

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## Spin

> Think oil is heading to $50-$75 range


I think industry costs have risen to the point where 50$ is impossible.
The producer countries would reduce output to protect the price and they are already talking about it yesterday




> hence taking their profit and going back to safety with the USD


That makes sense, the ozzie and nz dollar seem to be out of fashion all of a sudden, where better to go next that the U$D which was very cheap a week or so back.

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## Dean

I've got around 500,000 baht that I was going to change to dollars in anticipation of moving back to U.S. in October.  I wish that I had been watching the indexes after the dollar hit 30.5 and didn't notice it until it hit around 33.  I would prefer to wait until I leave to do the exchange but if it dips a little bit now (to 33.5), I might go ahead and cash out.  In any event, unless it hits 36 or higher before October, I'm only talking about a couple of hundred dollars.

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## DrAndy

There are rumours that a major (major!) US bank is about to declare bancruptcy

maybe file under ch11, but no further info yet

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## chitown

^ is it Chase bank?  :Sad:

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## bkkandrew

^More likely City, by my tip is Wachovia. Lehman is a given, but wouldn't be considered 'major' in these troubled times.

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## Butterfly

Rumors is that it will be Fanny Mae being bailed out,

story all over the WSJ,

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## Butterfly

WSJ: Freddie Mac was forced to offer unusually rich terms in a $3 billion auction of its debt, fueling concerns about a possible bailout for the mortgage giant and its sibling, Fannie Mae.

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## bkkandrew

^and^^Old news, they were a given since the Congressman's speech a couple of weeks ago.

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## Butterfly

^ what are you talking about ? fresh from this morning, and nothing is a given in the financial world, you should know that by now with all your failed predictions  :Smile:

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## bkkandrew

> ^ what are you talking about ? fresh from this morning,


Well, I must have had a crystal ball to post this three weeks ago then:

https://teakdoor.com/us-domestic-issu...tml#post703589




> and nothing is a given in the financial world, you should know that by now with all your failed predictions


No failed predictions. Yet.

As you well know.

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## bkkandrew

^and here:

https://teakdoor.com/us-domestic-issu...tml#post717599

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## bkkandrew

(My bold)

Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's success in repaying $223 billion of bonds due by the end of the quarter may determine whether they can avoid a federal bailout.

Fannie, based in Washington, has about $120 billion of debt maturing through Sept. 30, while McLean, Virginia-based Freddie has $103 billion, according to figures provided by the government-chartered companies and data compiled by Bloomberg.

Rising borrowing costs and evidence that demand for their debt was waning last month led Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to seek the authority to pump unlimited amounts of capital in Fannie and Freddie in an emergency. Their interest costs are again increasing amid concern that credit losses are depleting the capital of the beleaguered mortgage-finance companies.

*Rolling over the debt ``is the single most important factor to their ability to remain liquid,'' said Moshe Orenbuch, an analyst at Credit Suisse in New York. ``So far, they've been able to do that.''*

*Investors in Asia, the biggest foreign owner of Fannie's $3 trillion of bonds, are reducing their share of purchases, potentially increasing the need for Paulson to make good on his pledge to backstop the companies.*

*``This whole backstop mechanism was set up so the actual need for it could be avoided,''* said Mahesh Swaminathan, a mortgage strategist for Credit Suisse in New York. ``The market is testing the Treasury's resolve.''

New Capital

The companies, responsible for 42 percent of the U.S. home loan market, need as much as $15 billion each in fresh capital to reserve against losses on mortgages and related securities that they either own or guarantee, Paul Miller, an analyst with Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. in Arlington, Virginia, said.

*The Treasury will probably be forced to buy as much as $30 billion of preferred shares in both Fannie and Freddie by the end of next month, according to Bill Gross, who manages the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co.*

``Treasury is monitoring market developments vigilantly. We are focused on encouraging market stability, mortgage availability, and protecting the taxpayers' interests,'' Treasury spokeswoman Jennifer Zuccarelli said.

From:

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

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## bkkandrew

The companies rely heavily on overseas investment, *often up to two-thirds of each new multibillion-dollar note offering*, to help pare funding costs and keep mortgage rates low.

But foreign central banks have dumped nearly $11 billion (5.9 billion pounds) from their record holdings of this debt in four weeks, to $975 billion (522 billion pounds), and won't return in force before it's clear if -- and how -- the government will back Fannie and Freddie, some analysts say.

Quoted from:

Fannie and Freddie face overseas confidence crisis | News | Reuters

This is your original black hole definition.

The FED will default on sovereign debt in the 3rd/4th quarter of 2008. Be warned.

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## bkkandrew

> “On July 16, 2008 . . . , the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth. . . . So central banks were accumulating dollars over the past three weeks at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US trade deficit. *The logical conclusion is that they were intervening in currency markets. They were buying dollars for the purpose of propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of the cliff* and doing so ignited a short covering rally, which is not too difficult to do given the leverage employed in the markets these days by hedge funds and others.”2


[at] : Information Clearing House - ICH

Last ditch attempt by the 'club' to try and salvage the situation?

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## Spin

^ Short covering rally, it makes sense doesnt it?

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## good2bhappy

34 baht mark breached

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## Butterfly

> https://teakdoor.com/us-domestic-issu...tml#post703589 (A note of caution for those with deposits in US Banks)


that's not your predictions or even real predictions for that matter, just copy/paste from another website, the Market Oracle

Evidence of the US Banking System Teetering on the Brink of Collapse :: The Market Oracle

Your prediction in your post was: Bad, Bad, Bad

what kind of prediction is that ?  :Smile:

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## bkkandrew

^As reading always seems to be a challenge for you, I will guide you (yet again).

The relevant points in the article are:

(2), (5), (6), (7), (13) and (15).

BTW, putting a smilie in your posts does not disguise your lack of knowledge, it actually is an indictor of it.

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## Butterfly

^ what lack of knowledge ? I think you have proved extensively in your different threads you knew nothing about FX, oil, and other financial matters, despite claiming to be in the industry for the last 20 years, all you can do is copy/paste things you barely understand

you couldn't even get the demand and supply theory right, referring of course to your jewel of infinite elasticity of oil demand pushing prices even further, confusing quantities with growth rates etc... I mean how more clueless could you be ?  :Smile:

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## bkkandrew

> ^ what lack of knowledge ? I think you have proved extensively in your different threads you knew nothing about FX, oil, and other financial matters, despite claiming to be in the industry for the last 20 years, all you can do is copy/paste things you barely understand


Total nonsense (again). Have you read the points in the article that I suggested? No, stuck on a word such as 'The' I guess.

The point actually being made was that I posted the article 4-weeks ago warning of exactly what you reported on 2-days ago. So, yes, you were repeating old news.

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## William

my guess  - on the bank to be on the brink - would be Lehman

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## DrAndy

maybe William, maybe

at least you are mentioning a bank, not some other type of financial institution

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## bkkandrew

The mystery over what was going on with the dollar the first week in August was solved by James Turk, founder of GoldMoney, who wrote on August 7: 

"[T]he banking problems in the United States continue to mount, while the federal governments deficit continues to soar out of control. . . . So what happened to cause the dollar to rally over the past three weeks? In a word, intervention. Central banks have propped up the dollar, and heres the proof.

"When central banks intervene in the currency markets, they exchange their currency for dollars. Central banks then use the dollars they acquire to buy US government debt instruments so that they can earn interest on their money. The debt instruments central banks acquire are held in custody for them at the Federal Reserve, which reports this amount weekly.

"On July 16, 2008 . . . , *the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth.* . . . So central banks were accumulating dollars over the past three weeks at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US trade deficit. The logical conclusion is that they were intervening in currency markets. They were buying dollars for the purpose of propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of the cliff and doing so ignited a short covering rally, which is not too difficult to do given the leverage employed in the markets these days by hedge funds and others."2

Full story here:

Wag the Dog: How to Conceal Massive Economic Collapse

 :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

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## good2bhappy

did I see 34.9?

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## bkkandrew

^I would have doubted it:

(From Bank of Thailand)

Foreign Exchange Rates as of 21 August 2008

Weighted-average Interbank Exchange Rate = 34.026 Baht/US Dollar

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## good2bhappy

your right my mistake.
I need glasses!!!!!!!!!!!!

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## Begbie

^wait till the end of next week.

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## DrAndy

> *the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth.* .


that is an increase, yes, but only of $52 billion  ( a 2.5% increase). I don't think it makes sense to extrapolate to an annual increase, as it was a short term influx reacting to whatever

so no proof yet of intervention

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## Marmite the Dog

> so no proof yet of intervention


There's lots actually (no, I can't). I was talking to an ex-FTSE chappie on Tuesday and what he said is pretty much the same as BKKA. Not that I understood most of it, mind.

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## bkkandrew

^^Not proof, but a strong indicator. Especially when the US trade deficit is narrowing, due to recession curbing domestic demand.

The next few weeks will be interesting me thinks.

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## DrAndy

fair enough...wait and see

I like a stronger dollar anyway

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## bkkandrew

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- *A failure of U.S. mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could be a catastrophe for the global financial system, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to China's central bank.
*
``If the U.S. government allows Fannie and Freddie to fail and international investors are not compensated adequately, the consequences will be catastrophic,'' Yu said in e-mailed answers to questions yesterday. ``If it is not the end of the world, it is the end of the current international financial system.''

Freddie and Fannie shares touched 20-year lows yesterday on speculation that a government bailout will leave the stocks worthless. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson won approval from the U.S. Congress last month to pump unlimited amounts of capital into the companies in an emergency.

*China's $376 billion of long-term U.S. agency debt is mostly in Fannie and Freddie assets*, according to James McCormack, head of Asian sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings Ltd. in Hong Kong.* The Chinese government probably holds the bulk of that amount,* according to McCormack.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China yesterday reported a $2.7 billion holding. Bank of China Ltd. may have $20 billion, according to CLSA Ltd., the Hong Kong-based investment banking arm of France's Credit Agricole SA. CLSA puts the exposure of the six biggest Chinese banks at $30 billion.

`Beyond Imagination'

*``The seriousness of such failures could be beyond the stretch of people's imagination,'*' said Yu, a professor at the Institute of World Economics & Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. He didn't explain why he held that view.

China's government hasn't commented on Fannie and Freddie.

Yu is ``influential'' among government officials and investors and has discussed economic issues with Premier Wen Jiabao this year, said Shen Minggao, a former Citigroup Inc. economist in Beijing, now an economist at business magazine Caijing.

Investor confidence in Fannie and Freddie has dwindled on speculation that government intervention is inevitable. Washington-based Fannie has fallen 88 percent this year, while Freddie of McLean, Virginia, has slumped 91 percent.

Paulson got the power to make purchases of the two companies' debt or equity in legislation enacted July 30 that was aimed at shoring up confidence in the businesses. He has said the Treasury doesn't expect to use that authority.

The two companies combined account for more than half of the $12 trillion U.S. mortgage market.

From:

Bloomberg.com: Asia

I have continually warned about the risk of systemic collapse of the World financial system this autumn. As the moment is close, I have protected myself, others have contingency plans, what are yours?

----------


## bkkandrew

^^Oh, Dr Andy, I should enjoy the 'stronger dollar' as long as it lasts... :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

----------


## MrG

BK... What are your contingency plans. 

I plan to retire in 4 - 5 years to land I own (OK, the wife owns) in Nong Khai. My retirement, Social Security (what that thieving bast..d Reagan left me), real estate and savings are in US $. No stocks. Any information welcome.

----------


## bkkandrew

^Your real estate in US is foked. SS is foked if you cannot transfer funds out of USD. USD denominated savings should be transferred to the currency you plan to retire in OR a hedge currency.

I am sorry to be brief, but you should seek paid-for financial advice.

----------


## britmaveric

> ^^Oh, Dr Andy, I should enjoy the 'stronger dollar' as long as it lasts...


Likely be still strong when we are all buried.  :Smile:

----------


## bkkandrew

^So you haven't read the prior posts. No change there then. :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

----------


## Butterfly

> I am sorry to be brief, but you should seek paid-for financial advice.


not from you I hope, as you have no idea what you are talking about  :Smile: 

Jesus, how old were you in 1997 ? I bet you were also forecasting the end of Asia then,

----------


## DrAndy

> ^So you haven't read the prior posts. No change there then.


It is possible that he had read them and disagreed with the doom forecasts

I tend to think that the dollar will remain strong, and get stronger

I may be wrong, you and I do not know anything about the future

----------


## bkkandrew

^No, Brit has just been issuing the same on-liners, with no explanation, forcasting an increase of the USD (even when it was 44 to the THB - then he forecast 50...) for years, on TV before and now here. It is just irritating that he doesn't read up un the subject, does'nt offer anything to the topic, just states the same thing over and over again.

----------


## britmaveric

Well it is moving in that direction, and I stand by my predictions. By the way my opinion is no more valid than the supposed financial experts. (including yourself which you are hardly an expert)  :Very Happy:

----------


## Airportwo

> Well it is moving in that direction, and I stand by my predictions. By the way my opinion is no more valid than the supposed financial experts. (including yourself which you are hardly an expert)


Predicting or hoping?  :Sad:  In both cases I think you will be disapointed!  :Crucified:

----------


## Butterfly

all this financial collapse end of the world predictions are silly,

if it was to happen, then the price of gold would go to the roof, maybe 20,000 per ounce

and guess who own the majority of Gold or at least quite a lot, the good old USA

at 20,000 an ounce that could be enough to payback all the outstanding debt, and maybe even more, bringing back the balance and rebooting the Matrix  :Smile:

----------


## britmaveric

^Sensible post Butterfy!!!  :Smile:

----------


## bkkandrew

> Well it is moving in that direction, and I stand by my predictions. By the way my opinion is no more valid than the supposed financial experts. (including yourself which you are hardly an expert)


You still stand by your prediction at B44 to USD that it will be 50? You made that prediction on ThaiVisa a few years ago if you recall. I called the prediction rubbish then and it is rubbish now.

----------


## bkkandrew

> all this financial collapse end of the world predictions are silly,


Who is predicting the end of the world?

We are close to a US debt default. Yu (acting as proxy for Premier Wen) was warning the US of its displeasure at the thought of $367 Billion 'investment' in Fanny and Freddie going up in smoke (along with all the rest of the US debt it owns). As you do.

The Chinese lose a lot of money they never really had, the US don't have the ability to borrow trillions to finance new wars and have to rediscover the art of paying for things. Why would this be the end of the world? Some would argue that is might be beneficial in the long run...

----------


## bkkandrew

This is from:

Bloomberg.com: Exclusive

<snip>




> Taylor's International Foreign Exchange Concepts Inc., the biggest currency hedge fund company in the world, is navigating through some of the wildest fluctuations the currency market has seen since the dot-com crash in 2002.


Now, this is a serious guy, who serious people take seriously...

<snip>




> In the year ended in July, one of Taylor's most frequent bets has been on the euro against the dollar. Adjusting to the zigzagging market, he shifted from owning the euro to selling it, to owning it again, up to 15 times in his various funds as the European currency advanced 15.7 percent against the dollar, Taylor says. In trading Aug. 21, the euro stood at $1.4894, up 2 percent against the dollar this year. 
> 
> Taylor says his models are telling him to continue to bet against the dollar. He *predicts the dollar might lose about 40 percent of its value in the next three years against the Federal Reserve's trade-weighted currency* *index*, which measures trade with 38 countries including Canada, China, Mexico and members of the European Union. 
> 
> *The prediction is partly based on his charts of the U.S. real estate cycle, which he says has a major impact on the dollar and will continue to point south for the next couple of years, dragging down the currency with it. He also says the price of a barrel of crude oil might reach $250 in 2011, further eroding the strength of the U.S. economy and the dollar.*

----------


## Begbie

No arguements on the real estate front. However the oil case is specious. Oil will only reach US$250 a barrel if the dollar falls massively for other reasons. With an industrial downturn worldwide already here there is now an oversupply of oil and signs of an eighties style collapse in the price of oil. Taylor should stick to real estate.

----------


## Butterfly

> Now, this is a serious guy, who serious people take seriously...


I wouldn't take seriously a hedge fund manager, they have tendencies to make wrong predictions over the long run, and go bust,

Hedge fun managers come in all size and colors, if you get my drift, and frankly if I had any prediction power as a hedge fund manager, I would keep my mouth shut and serve my clients first instead of publicizing my silly announcements,

and yeah "Taylor should stick to real estate."

----------


## ray23

1997 crash Google Thailand 1997 financial crash and that should keep you busy. You will see many things similar, but they were trying to prop us the dollar, not what they are doing today.

Looking at the baht rate on Bloomberg this morning dollar prety much went up everywhere but here, where it lost a very small amount. The article does support the export growth I tend to believe Bloomberg more then the local news. Gee wonder why  

But on the other hand dometic consumption has went down and doesn't appear to will do much better for the year. Bringing the true GDP down.


Interest rates BOT got some very strong direction both ways. I think they will raise them. The reason the hint to raise them came from the strongest person in this country.If so they can quit manipulating the dollar for a bit, But eventually that will be the avenue of approach if they continue on the current course.

I wish I could say this information is mine, but it is from another forum, that I have discussing this topic in for the past two years, I would say this guy prettiest close the majority of the time,. It give a petty clear picture of what ha happened recently since the dollar began to gain strength.

As you can see all of them, apart from the THB, experienced substantial falls of about 8% or more, these were as follows: 

"
THB - max fall of 1.9% - today 1.3% 

GBP - max fall of 7.6% - today 7.3% 

EUR - max fall of 8.4% - today 7.2% 

AUD - max fall of 11.9% - today 10.8%"



QUOTE 
Thailand Economic Growth Probably Slowed, Easing Rate Pressure 

By Suttinee Yuvejwattana and Michael Munoz

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand's economic growth probably slowed for the first time in more than a year as increased exports of rice and rubber failed to offset weak local demand. 

Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy expanded 5.8 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier after gaining 6 percent in the previous three months, according to the median forecast of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report is due today at 9:30 a.m. in Bangkok. 

Slowing growth means the Bank of Thailand may be on the verge of its last interest-rate increase this year, according to a Bloomberg survey. Governor Tarisa Watanagase is coming under pressure from the government to keep borrowing costs on hold and spur the economy amid signs inflation may be easing. 

``Putting politics aside, I see a lot of room for the central bank to increase its key rate by 25 basis points this time,'' said Vishnu Varathan, an economist at Forecast Singapore Ltd., who expects the Bank of Thailand to keep its benchmark unchanged at its meeting on Aug. 27. ``But things are quite messy. The government has tried to politicize interest rates.'' 

The Bank of Thailand will raise its one-day repurchase rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75 percent, the second increase in two months, according to eight of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The rest expect borrowing costs to be left unchanged. Of the eight predicting an increase this week, four say it will be the last for this year and the others forecast at least a further quarter-point rise. 

Inflation to Peak 

``The central bank needs to raise rates another time to anchor inflation expectations and it should be the last time,'' said Usara Wilaipich, a Bangkok-based economist at Standard Chartered Plc., who predicts borrowing costs will start to fall next year. ``Inflation will peak in a couple of months before easing off as growth eases in the second half. The central bank needs to take care of growth.'' 

Lower fuel costs will start to slow inflation from October onwards, Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee said Aug. 15. 

The central bank last month raised its key rate by a quarter point to 3.5 percent, the first increase in two years, after inflation hit a decade-high 9.2 percent in July. The move has been criticized by members of the government. 

Thailand shouldn't raise interest rates because it will lower economic growth, newly-appointed Deputy Finance Minister Suchart Thadathamrongvej said on Aug. 7. Governor Tarisa should resign if the central bank's policy differs from the government's position, he added. 

`Stand Straight' 

Governor Tarisa on Aug. 21 vowed to ``stand straight'' and continue to act in ``the best interest of the country'' after King Bhumibol Adulyadej praised the Bank of Thailand for its handling of monetary policy and its concern with inflation. 

The central bank and the finance ministry agree that Thailand's economic growth may ease in the second half as a global slowdown reduces demand for the nation's exports, even as their views on interest rates differ. 

Thailand is ``relying a lot on exports,'' said Sebastien Barbe, a Hong Kong-based strategist for the investment banking unit of France's Credit Agricole SA. ``With the U.S., Europe and Japan decelerating, the rest of Asia will weaken in the next few months. It is a very challenging backdrop for Thailand.'' 

Exports from Thailand, which account for about 70 percent of gross domestic product, rose 26.3 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier. That was faster than the 22.9 percent pace recorded in the previous three-month period. 

Consumer Confidence 

Spending by local consumers and companies hasn't been that strong. An index of consumer confidence fell from April through June in line with surging oil costs, and protests and court cases against Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej's government. 

Prime Minister Samak reshuffled his cabinet on Aug. 2, removing five ministers, after court rulings forced out key members of his administration. Allegations that Samak is a proxy for former premier Thaksin Shinawatra have led to protests since May urging the prime minister and his team to resign. 

Thailand's Supreme Court on Aug. 11 issued an arrest warrant for Thaksin after he skipped bail and fled to the U.K. instead of attending a court hearing on corruption charges. The election commission will also decide next month whether to seek a court order to disband the ruling People Power Party because of alleged vote-buying. 

The following tables show economists' estimates for economic growth and interest rates: 



Thailand GDP Estimates
<hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr>----

2Q 2Q 3Q 4Q GDP GDP
Firm YoY QoQ SA YoY YoY 2008 2009
<hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr>----
Median 5.8% 1.0% 4.6% 4.1% 5.0% 5.3%
Average 5.8% 0.9% 4.6% 4.1% 5.1% 5.1%
High 6.2% 1.0% 5.0% 4.8% 5.4% 5.8%
Low 5.5% 0.8% 4.3% 2.9% 4.6% 4.5%
Number of Estimates 10 3 8 8 10 9
<hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr>----
Action Economics 5.8% 1.0% 4.8% 3.6% 5.0% 4.5%
Capital Nomura 5.8% 0.8% -- -- 4.6% 4.8%
CIMB Securities 5.9% -- 5.0% 4.4% 5.3% 5.5%
HSBC 5.6% -- 4.3% 4.2% 5.0% 5.0%
Kasikorn Research 5.8% 1.0% 5.0% 4.6% 5.3% 5.8%
KTB Securities 5.5% -- 4.5% 4.0% 5.0% 5.3%
Moody's Economy.com 6.2% -- -- -- 5.4% --
SCB Securities 5.7% -- 4.7% 4.0% 5.0% 5.5%
Standard Chartered 5.8% -- 4.3% 2.9% 4.7% 4.5%
Tisco Securities 5.6% -- 4.5% 4.8% 5.2% 5.4%
<hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr>----

Thailand Benchmark Interest Rate Estimates

<hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr>----
Aug. Oct. Dec.
Firm 27 8 3
<hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr>----
Median 3.75% 3.75% 3.75%
% Estimates at Median 62% 50% 50%
High 3.75% 4.00% 4.00%
Low 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
Number of Estimates 13 10 10
<hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr>----
Action Economics 3.50% 3.75% 3.75%
Capital Nomura Securities 3.75% 3.75% 3.75%
CIMB Securities 3.75% 3.75% 3.75%
Credit Suisse 3.75% -- --
HSBC 3.75% 4.00% 4.00%
Kasikorn Research 3.50% -- --
KTB Securities 3.50% -- --
Moody's Economy.com 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
SCB Securities 3.75% 4.00% 4.00%
Standard Chartered Bank 3.75% 3.75% 3.75%
Reuters IFR 3.75% 4.00% 4.00%
Tisco Securities 3.75% 3.75% 3.75%
Westpac Banking Corp 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
<hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr><hr>----
To contact the reporters on this story: Suttinee Yuvejwattana in Bangkok at suttinee1[at]bloomberg.net; Michael Munoz in Hong Kong at mjmunoz[at]bloomberg.net"





<hr><hr><hr><hr>

I reserve the right to be wrong, to mispell words, too type badly, leave words out in sentences because my mind works faster then my fingers

----------


## bkkandrew

> No arguements on the real estate front. However the oil case is specious. Oil will only reach US$250 a barrel if the dollar falls massively for other reasons. With an industrial downturn worldwide already here there is now an oversupply of oil and signs of an eighties style collapse in the price of oil. Taylor should stick to real estate.


Begbie, forgive me, but I think you missed his point on oil. He was extrapolating the post-crash collapse of the dollar to oil pricing in dollars. It therefore stands that oil pricing (in this scenario) in Euros, Sterling, et al, would remain roughly at current levels.

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> Now, this is a serious guy, who serious people take seriously...
> 
> 
> I wouldn't take seriously a hedge fund manager, they have tendencies to make wrong predictions over the long run, and go bust,
> 
> Hedge fun managers come in all size and colors, if you get my drift, and frankly if I had any prediction power as a hedge fund manager, I would keep my mouth shut and serve my clients first instead of publicizing my silly announcements,
> 
> and yeah "Taylor should stick to real estate."


Yes, don't take anyone seriously that has knowledge of the subject at hand. That seems to be you modus operandi on all subjects.

Anyway, another snippet from the article:




> ``Taylor is up there with George Soros,'' says Maxime Tessier, head of foreign exchange at Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec, a pension fund that manages about $258 billion from Montreal and is not Taylor's client. ``He's a beautiful example of how someone can be a successful investor in the foreign exchange market.''

----------


## Butterfly

George Soros is a wonderful investor, and did a few bold bets and won, and also lost a lot of them. He is not as hot as he used to. I refer to his Quantum fund and many FoF he had. Still love the guy, him and Warren Buffet, are two visionary.

The head of foreign exchange at "Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec" is just making an opinion, hardly evidence that is true. I could say that GW Bush is the greatest President of all, and Putin could say the same thing, and it wouldn't make it the more true.

----------


## bkkandrew

> George Soros is a wonderful investor, and did a few bold bets and won, and also lost a lot of them. He is not as hot as he used to. I refer to his Quantum fund and many FoF he had. Still love the guy, him and Warren Buffet, are two visionary.


So glad you like him. I glad he agrees with me:




> I think this is probably more serious than anything in our lifetime, he says. In short, his feeling is that the United States and Britain are facing a recession of a scale greater than the early-1990s, greater even than the 1970s.


From interview given here:

George Soros: ‘We face the most serious recession of our lifetime’  Dissent Mag




> The head of foreign exchange at "Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec" is just making an opinion, hardly evidence that is true. I could say that GW Bush is the greatest President of all, and Putin could say the same thing, and it wouldn't make it the more true.


Indeed, but I'll place the views of the head of the largest hedge fund manager in the world before yours. Thanks all the same.

----------


## Butterfly

> From interview given here:
> 
> George Soros: ‘We face the most serious recession of our lifetime’  Dissent Mag


I am very well aware of his gloom theory about the USD and a financial collapse. Hopefully he will be proven wrong, not to say that everything is fine in the financial world.




> Indeed, but I'll place the views of the head of the largest hedge fund manager in the world before yours.


Not saying you shouldn't, but believing every piece of speculative news bits to support a theory is a bit silly though.

----------


## bkkandrew

> Not saying you shouldn't, but believing every piece of speculative news bits to support a theory is a bit silly though.


Then why do you do it then?

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> From interview given here:
> 
> George Soros: We face the most serious recession of our lifetime  Dissent Mag
> 
> 
> I am very well aware of his gloom theory about the USD and a financial collapse. Hopefully he will be proven wrong, not to say that everything is fine in the financial world.


So, on one hand you think he is a "visionary", but on the other you disagree with him. That follows in a logical sense I suppose.

----------


## Butterfly

> Then why do you do it then?


I don't but you do though  :Smile: 




> So, on one hand you think he is a "visionary", but on the other you disagree with him. That follows in a logical sense I suppose.


He is a visionary, it means his long term vision of society, betting on a financial collapse or a correction is short term. Do you know what the word visionary means ?  :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

----------


## ray23

Lets see Soros don't think he would like things lower so he could simply buy them for less do you?

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> So, on one hand you think he is a "visionary", but on the other you disagree with him. That follows in a logical sense I suppose.
> 
> 
> He is a visionary, it means his long term vision of society, betting on a financial collapse or a correction is short term. Do you know what the word visionary means ?


Yes, I do, I was pointing out that you admired him on one hand, yet diagreed with his vision on the other. For most people this would be considered odd, but we are used to it when you are concerned...

----------


## Butterfly

I agree with his vision, not his short term predictions, 2 different things, not sure how it's odd, all very logical

people are not black and white, he is not god, and he is not the gospels, he can be wrong like everyone else, it doesn't mean I don't respect some of his views or his visions because I have a different opinion from him on a specific prediction,

----------


## Spin

Prepare for 35 baht to the dollar with the next 48 hours :Smile:

----------


## chinthee

> Prepare for 35 baht to the dollar with the next 48 hours


Yup, next step 40-42 for the long term.  Many of us have predicted this over the long term.  I think 40 is a long term right level for the Baht.

----------


## jim1176

> Yup, next step 40-42 for the long term. Many of us have predicted this over the long term. I think 40 is a long term right level for the Baht.


Agreed, things are just too expensive at 34. I suspect visitors are down due to Thailand becoming so expensive so quickly. 

Thailand is not a high end destination. Low quality demands low prices.

----------


## chinthee

^And, that is the right level.  40-42 is the proper level.

----------


## bkkandrew

^There is no 'proper level' in forex CT...

----------


## chinthee

^Of course there's no stated market level, but I'm talking about a proper market level that's sustainable.

----------


## bkkandrew

^Agree, sustainable level, but we will have to wait and see what the USD-THB sustainable level will be. With both economies in turmoil, it would be rash to make a judgement call now.

----------


## chinthee

I'll call it.  It's about 40-42.  I'll take all the flak for it later if I'm wrong.  This should be realisable in about 90 days.

----------


## bkkandrew

^90-days is hardly a period when which sustainability will become evident...

----------


## chinthee

^Okey dokey, let's say the level in 160 days.  But, I think it will be self evident by 90 days.

----------


## Butterfly

40 is highly unlikely, not even in 1 year, export are still strong,

unless the USD recovers dramatically, always a possibility

----------


## MisterStretch

Depending on who wins the US election will probably influence the dollar's strength to a great degree.

Oil markets are anticipating lighter demand and the dropping price of a barrel of oil can only help.  Confidence in a new leader in America should also influence the strength of the greenback versus other currencies.

Continued sliding by the European currencies, due to poor economic performance (Britain is reportedly at a 60-year low in terms of economic performance) and I think 38-42 is a reasonable call.

Turmoil in Thailand right now sure isn't helping the situation.  More than 6% of Thailand's GNP is directly linked to tourism, even the TAT is reporting significant drops in tourism on year-to-year numbers.  The baht doesn't have a lot to show for itself right now.

I look to this mark to appear sometime later this year.

----------


## chinthee

I still give it 60-90 days.  Call me on this if I'm wrong in 90 days.

----------


## mrsquirrel

DAMMIT - the fucking Won has dropped to nearly 33 to the baht.

FOR FUCKS SAKE.

What a shite currency it is.

Stupid twats screwed up letting it become devalued so much to aid exports.


On a plus note the pound is at 1999 which is 90 less than it was on Monday - bad news is this means the pound is stuffed.

----------


## mrsquirrel

> Yup, next step 40-42 for the long term. Many of us have predicted this over the long term. I think 40 is a long term right level for the Baht.



Maybe Budhai will come back then

----------


## MisterStretch

> DAMMIT - the fucking Won has dropped to nearly 33 to the baht.


I figure I am now losing about $400 a month as compared to the dollar/won rate when I signed my contract last December.  Might make it hard to keep this job.

Perhaps the MidEast is calling again.

----------


## Butterfly

> Depending on who wins the US election will probably influence the dollar's strength to a great degree.
> 
> Oil markets are anticipating lighter demand and the dropping price of a barrel of oil can only help. Confidence in a new leader in America should also influence the strength of the greenback versus other currencies.


Well, I can only hope you are right !!!

----------


## mrsquirrel

> I figure I am now losing about $400 a month as compared to the dollar/won rate when I signed my contract last December. Might make it hard to keep this job.


Tell me about it.

That job in Libya paid in Sterling looked like such a better option now.

----------


## jim1176

> DAMMIT - the fucking Won has dropped to nearly 33 to the baht.  FOR FUCKS SAKE.  What a shite currency it is.  Stupid twats screwed up letting it become devalued so much to aid exports.


Won 33 to the baht? What Won?

Won Ton Soup

----------


## mrsquirrel

> Won 33 to the baht? What Won?  Won Ton Soup



Obviously you are a bit of an uneducated cock, aren't you?

----------


## Texpat

The buck was worth 39.5 baht on May 21, 2006 -- the day I moved here. If it gets back there, I'll be happy.

I hope the clusterfuck involving the Thai government continues driving tourists away.

----------


## Begbie

The baht has a ways to go. The Aussie dollar has fallen about 10% against the dollar, the UK pound 13%. The baht has only fallen about 8%. It will fall when the BOT runs out of dollars to buy baht.

----------


## baldrick

> It will fall when the BOT runs out of dollars to buy baht


thats what I think also

----------


## ray23

Oh no doubt they are supporting to what end I have no idea. The exporters were screaming as it got stronger. But they are reporting huge growth in exports, would be interesting to see where that growth is and if it's real.

----------


## MisterStretch

> DAMMIT - the fucking Won has dropped to nearly 33 to the baht.


...and today it is *1,000.00 KRW*

*=*

*31.3878 THB*


and *1.00 USD*

*=*

*34.4169 THB*

If the dollar actually does rise against the baht, I might be alright, even though the won is sliding.  The wife and I were talking about this last night...at 40 to the dollar, I manage to stay even to the signing of my last contract.

More turmoil is ahead...I hope it means the baht slides further.  I hate losing money for no reason.

----------


## William

> my guess  - on the bank to be on the brink - would be Lehman


hmmm, shares down 76% this week: wonder if it will fall this wk/end.

----------


## Spin

^ It was just announced Bank of America may be lining up a purchase of part or all of Lehman.

The dollar continued its upward trend today. I think tomorrow might be the day we see 35 baht to the dollar.

----------


## Butterfly

^ it was already yesterday [at] 35.02

----------


## Lorenzo

> The buck was worth 39.5 baht on May 21, 2006 -- the day I moved here. If it gets back there, I'll be happy.  I hope the clusterfuck involving the Thai government continues driving tourists away.


God speed

----------


## DrAndy

> Originally Posted by William
> 
> 
> my guess - on the bank to be on the brink - would be Lehman
> 
> 
> hmmm, shares down 76% this week: wonder if it will fall this wk/end.


 
yep, it was the bank I was referring to

I could not say at that time, due to confidentiality stuff etc

Lehman had been trawling around Asia trying to get extra funding, and failing

1st prize William

----------


## William

^    Dr A.

 The sarcasm of your post leads me to believe that I have broken client confidentiality.  

Is that correct?

----------


## Butterfly

They are still looking for a buyer, and the US Treasury will not come to the rescue apparently, except letting the Fed provides more cash

They might go Bearn Stein,

----------


## chitown

> ^ it was already yesterday [at] 35.02


Yeeeehaaaaaaw!!!! 


 :rock_dj:

----------


## bkkandrew

> ^ Dr A.
> 
> The sarcasm of your post leads me to believe that I have broken client confidentiality. 
> 
> Is that correct?


 
Dr A is an old c*nt who has trouble understanding words generally...

----------


## jizzybloke

I got 58.65 to the pound today! :Sad:

----------


## Propagator

^ Better to use Travellers Cheques   :Smile:

----------


## bkkandrew

^Still just a shade under 61 for notes at Super Rich when I walked past yesterday.

----------


## DrAndy

> ^ Dr A.
> 
> The sarcasm of your post leads me to believe that I have broken client confidentiality. 
> 
> Is that correct?


 
no sarcasm intended William

you just guessed right

btw, you could hardly break my confidentiality agreement!!

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## DrAndy

> Originally Posted by William
> 
> 
> ^ Dr A.
> 
> The sarcasm of your post leads me to believe that I have broken client confidentiality. 
> 
> Is that correct?
> 
> ...


link please BkkA

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## bkkandrew

^

www.teakdoor.com

There's loads there.

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## DrAndy

tee hee

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