#  >  > Living And Legal Affairs In Thailand >  >  > Thailand and Asia News >  >  > Business, Finance & Economics in Thailand >  >  Thai Stocks / Shares and the SET general news

## David48atTD

Anyone investing in the SET?

Tips and advisements here




OH ... anyone got a better, more up to date of the SET Graph?
Interestingly, 2 1/2 years later it's still hovering around 1,580 points

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## David48atTD

*TOA ready for SET listing in Q4*  [Bangkok Post] 

TOA  Paint  Thailand  Plc  will  be  the  first  paint company  to  list  on  the  Stock  Exchange  of Thailand,  scheduled  for  the  
fourth  quarter  of  this  year.  

The  country's  largest  maker  of decorative paints and coatings, will float 507.6 million shares in  its IPO, or 25.02% of its equity, 
with the proceeds going to fund local and overseas expansion. 

The Securities and Exchange  Commission  (SEC)  yesterday  approved  the  IPO  application  and  filing.  

The company will offer up to 254 million primary shares and 253.6 million secondary shares held  by  Wybrant  Holding  Ltd,  an  existing  shareholder.  

TOA  Paint  has  registered  capital of  2.029  billion  baht,  at  one  baht  par,  with  paid-up  capital  of   1.775  million  baht.  

Bualuang  Securities  and  Kasikorn  Securities, the  firm's  financial  advisers,  said  the processes of share allocationand share pricing have yet to be concluded.

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## redhaze

This is an interesting thread idea. I know nothing about Thai stocks, but am keen to learn a thing or two...

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## jabir

AQUA, bottoming out

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## Dragonfly

Threads like this have been tried before and they usually die a slow painful death  :Smile: 

anyway, nothing much happening on SET, index a bit overpriced so waiting for a nice correction would be great

also Thai companies not reporting great earnings surprises, already priced at fair value

European stocks is where to go at this moment  :Razz:

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## David48atTD

> AQUA, bottoming out


Humm ... good enough a place to start as any.

What indicators do you point to that it's reached it's nadir?

News = https://www.set.or.th/set/companynew...=en&country=US

Bloomberg Info = https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AQUA:TB

One year Stock Chart with the 30 day moving avg = https://au.finance.yahoo.com/chart/A...oiMnkifQ%3D%3D

Thanks for the starting point

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## buriramboy

Unless things have changed and they well have done as I haven't looked into it for years you can't buy and sell Thai stocks online which makes it a non starter for many.

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## cyrille

Holy shit, did you just post something that didn't include a tired dig at another poster that you've previously posted at least a hundred times?

 :Confused:

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## buriramboy

> Holy shit, did you just post something that didn't include a tired dig at another poster that you've previously posted at least a hundred times?


Fuck me you really are the most boring tedious cvnt to ever grace any forum. What exactly was the point of this latest drivel, what does it have to do with the SET? Go back to stalking benice2me and your posts on her threads really do show what a horrible creepy cvnt you are and your stalk files on her would even pit smeg to shame.

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## jabir

> Originally Posted by jabir
> 
> 
> AQUA, bottoming out
> 
> 
> Humm ... good enough a place to start as any.
> 
> What indicators do you point to that it's reached it's nadir?
> ...


AQUA dropped quickly from high 80s to mid-60s, now seems to have stabilised, currently 66. Q2 report should indicate earnings recovery and might also list their storage business, both bullish. I'm in avg 67 and will buy more if it stays there or drops. 

As always do your own DD.

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## jabir

> Unless things have changed and they well have done as I haven't looked into it for years you can't buy and sell Thai stocks online which makes it a non starter for many.


Sure you can through a broker.

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## buriramboy

> Originally Posted by buriramboy
> 
> 
> Unless things have changed and they well have done as I haven't looked into it for years you can't buy and sell Thai stocks online which makes it a non starter for many.
> 
> 
> Sure you can through a broker.


For example I have my trading account in the UK with Barclays, just log into my account and can buy or sell instantly online all funds taken out of or paid into my account, you saying can now do this in Thailand and if so who with?

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## Dragonfly

> Unless things have changed and they well have done as I haven't looked into it for years you can't buy and sell Thai stocks online which makes it a non starter for many.


I have been doing it for over 10 years, so you are definitely wrong on that one  :Smile: 

you can trade online, no problem

did a few sell 2 months ago, actually

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## buriramboy

> Originally Posted by buriramboy
> 
> 
> Unless things have changed and they well have done as I haven't looked into it for years you can't buy and sell Thai stocks online which makes it a non starter for many.
> 
> 
> I have been doing it for over 10 years, so you are definitely wrong on that one 
> 
> you can trade online, no problem
> ...


As I said haven't looked into it for years and it was best part of 10 years ago since I left Thailand. Sure it was the misses cousin who used to work in Bangkok, saying had to queue up to buy and sell, couldn't just get an instant price and execute in a split second.

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## Dragonfly

> Sure it was the misses cousin who used to work in Bangkok, saying had to queue up to buy and sell, couldn't just get an instant price and execute in a split second.


that's a different issue from trading online,

seems like you are not really familiar with real trading,

if all you do is logon into your UK bank account and buy some kind of UCITS at market price, then you are not really trading since you do not have a limit price in mind

with SET, like most bourses, you can play the bid/ask thing and get the trade at the cost that you want, instead of paying immediate market price that only impatient fools go for  :Smile:

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## Dragonfly

> As I said haven't looked into it for years and it was best part of 10 years ago since I left Thailand.


online trading has been available since 2002, probably before with some brokers

You can download SETRADE on your iPhone, and trade directly from that system, using the Thai broker of your choice

actually quite a nice professional interface etc... and cheap cost for trading

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## buriramboy

> Originally Posted by buriramboy
> 
> Sure it was the misses cousin who used to work in Bangkok, saying had to queue up to buy and sell, couldn't just get an instant price and execute in a split second.
> 
> 
> that's a different issue from trading online,
> 
> seems like you are not really familiar with real trading,
> 
> ...


I don't really trade per se, just buy and hold dividend paying stocks all in my online account, or that makes up 90% of my stock portfolio, the other 10% I fuck about with, should probably fuck about with more though as my fuck about money is up over 25% since April.

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## David48atTD

> Originally Posted by David48atTD
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by jabir
> ...


Great stuff, I obviously have charted it and it's on the Radar.

Cheers

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## David48atTD

> Unless things have changed and they well have done as I haven't looked into it for years you can't buy and sell Thai stocks online which makes it a non starter for many.


 Hi *BB*, Mate, on-line trading has been open to me since I first came to Thailand, almost a decade ago.

Indeed it was opening an account with the Broker which got me a Thai Bank Account on a Tourist Visa.

As a Foreigner you don't own shares in the same way a Citizen does, but, the usual benefits flow through.
It's explained here

I trade either by contacting my Broker or trading directly on-line.
Commissions are ridiculously low   :Smile: 

With the dividends, they simply deduct the 10% withholding tax then paid into my Bank Account.

There are only a very few shares, as a foreigner you can't own.
Sadly, one of them is the Infrastructure Fund which was set up after the BTS sold their physical assets into a Fund.

It pays, currently a 7.26% dividend ... BTS Rail Mass Transit Growth Infrastructure FundHope that helps

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## jabir

> Originally Posted by jabir
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by buriramboy
> ...


Any of dozens of brokers. I have no favourite so wouldn't recommend, but a good place to start is https://marketdata.set.or.th.

Opening your account is straightforward enough, arrange credit or that will come after a couple of trades and off you go. I prefer no credit, will transfer funds, takes a few minutes. 

Happy hunting.

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## jabir

> Originally Posted by buriramboy
> 
> 
> Unless things have changed and they well have done as I haven't looked into it for years you can't buy and sell Thai stocks online which makes it a non starter for many.
> 
> 
>  Hi *BB*, Mate, on-line trading has been open to me since I first came to Thailand, almost a decade ago.
> 
> Indeed it was opening an account with the Broker which got me a Thai Bank Account on a Tourist Visa.
> ...


Sounds complicated but really straightforward. As a farang you buy NVDR (Non Voting Depositary Receipts), you can't vote and there's a limited but generally adequate allocation but otherwise equal rights and benefits. It's no big deal not to vote, and you will rarely have a problem due to allocation being taken. That said it happened to me once with BBL, the allocation was filled, so I bought regular BBL (non-NVDR) making sure to sell before divi date; farangs get divis only on NVDR. Or if you're married to a Thai just buy in her name.

Interesting that one of your links refers to BTS, that's been my main holding for a very long time, no luck or wizardry, bladder said if it's good enough for Buffet's BH it'll do for me.

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## Dragonfly

> There are only a very few shares, as a foreigner you can't own. Sadly, one of them is the Infrastructure Fund which was set up after the BTS sold their physical assets into a Fund.


actually not true any more, any farangs can buy local shares, foreign shares don't trade much so nobody is really buying them

when you buy local shares as a foreign, there is a proxy custodian for you, NVDR, that makes sure you don't have a voting right but receive all the other rights like the dividends and warrants etc...

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## jabir

I don't know of any main board stock that's not available to farangs.

The way I understood foreign shares (-F) when explained is that they are a good idea if you register with the tax hounds, because instead of an across the board 10% tax being withheld on divis it is structured differently which leaves you far better off. 

Not sure what the downsides are as my broker seemed too pushy so I didn't bother.

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## Iceman123

Paktol (PK Thai set) shares up about 88% in last six months.
Will report next week, should beat expectations.

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## Dragonfly

> Not sure what the downsides are as my broker seemed too pushy so I didn't bother.


the downsides is that there is much less volume for -F shares, and they have less floating shares, hence limiting your exit potential, that is only someone willing to buy -F shares when you want to sell or dump your -F shares

basically it's a limited choice,

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## Dragonfly

> Paktol (PK Thai set) shares up about 88% in last six months.
> Will report next week, should beat expectations.


I bought quite a few companies at 2THB that went to 15THB in less than 5 years

yeah, some amazing stories on SET, but today ? not much crazy returns for all the risks (political, economic cycle, and currency)

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## jabir

> Great stuff, I obviously have charted it and it's on the Radar.
> 
> Cheers



AQUA: Hope you're on, the next few days should tell if it's up and running or a false start, but looks like the waiting game paid off, resistance at mid-80s and then around 1.00 before a more or less clear run to 1.50, as ever with mini corrections and profit taking en route and subject to no coup or local nuke exchange. 

Bit of sorcery: aside from attractive fundamentals and investments, AQUA's 15 year chart shows sharp spikes to around 1.50 during 2005, 2008, 2014 and hopefully 2017; the missing link in this 3-year cycle was 2011, but look closer and you'll see it started the year in the low 20s and still hit 70s, which is a fine performance against the dust flying that year; and consistently higher lows since 2013, lowest was when I posted it has bottomed out at 66.

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## jabir

> I bought quite a few companies at 2THB that went to 15THB in less than 5 years
> 
> yeah, some amazing stories on SET, but today ? not much crazy returns for all the risks (political, economic cycle, and currency)


PTG from 3.50-32 in 3 years was pretty good, then halved for its next surge, now at 22.80 and heading north.

But you're right about the politics, need a strong bladder.

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## lob

aqua 52 week h/l  95/65 satang

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## jabir

Correct, and 65 is the low from dec/2013...simmering

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## lob

one for watching today,,,,   kkp  more than likely to go up,,,,  not a price i like,,,, so a wait and see,,,,  even so a fair buy just for the div =  8% +

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## lob

an other, = ctaraf,  no volume but i wouldn't expect a volume at the div they pay,,, 15% . stuck around 4.68  

if i was holding them at 15% div i'd only sell if i had to.

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## lob

just received a tip for dtac,,  57  tipped for 70...  i held dtac dec 2015, payed 29 sold 46  ,, made 280,000 bt.should have held on. ?
div shit.

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## jabir

> one for watching today,,,,   kkp  more than likely to go up,,,,  not a price i like,,,, so a wait and see,,,,  even so a fair buy just for the div =  8% +


Maybe another 10% if no coup or nuke exchange, but the divi helps.

DTAC overbought, shit divi, good if you held on a while but forget it now.

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## David48atTD

> an other, = ctaraf,  no volume but i wouldn't expect a volume at the div they pay,,, 15% . stuck around 4.68  
> 
> if i was holding them at 15% div i'd only sell if i had to.


Interesting that one ... CTARAF - Centara Hotels & Resorts Leasehold Property Fund

The Bloomberg site gives it's Yield @ 6.07% ... https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CTARAF:TB

But the Official SET gives it @ https://www.set.or.th/set/companypro...=en&country=US 

The difference seems to be how the 'Return of Capital' is treated ... https://www.set.or.th/set/companyrig...=en&country=US

*Dividend Policy*
_Not more than 4 times  per year(1) If CTARAF has recorded the net profit in any accounting  period, the Management Company shall pay dividend 
to the investment unit  holders for not less than 90% of the net profit (with additional  conditions)_



As *lob* says ... not a high daily turnover.

Interesting though.

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## Dragonfly

> an other, = ctaraf,  no volume but i wouldn't expect a volume at the div they pay,,, 15% . stuck around 4.68  
> 
> if i was holding them at 15% div i'd only sell if i had to.


15% dividend ? let me look that one up, I would have caught a while ago if that was really the case

I think you got messed up in your calculation, typical with amateur investors, can't even calculate the right performance metrics  :Smile:

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## Dragonfly

paying 0.231 THB so far in interim dividends, so more like 5%, but I believe they won't hold that high for the rest of the year, so it might be 0.30 THB for the year, if they don't suspend the last quarter dividends

However, it seems the company has indicated some kind of 15% yield according to SET factsheet, but it's announcement bullshit, but we can hope  :Smile: 

https://www.set.or.th/set/factsheet....=en&country=US

Not a bad candidate overall, though

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## Dragonfly

and daily volume is not too bad, not sure why you thought otherwise

for a small investor more than enough,

https://www.set.or.th/set/historical...=en&country=US

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## Dragonfly

> The difference seems to be how the 'Return of Capital' is treated ... https://www.set.or.th/set/companyrig...=en&country=US
> 
> *Dividend Policy*
> _Not more than 4 times  per year(1) If CTARAF has recorded the net profit in any accounting  period, the Management Company shall pay dividend 
> to the investment unit  holders for not less than 90% of the net profit (with additional  conditions)_
> 
> 
> 
> As *lob* says ... not a high daily turnover.


a lot of confusion here as usual,

calculating dividend yield has nothing to do how "return on capital" is treated, 

and the company official dividend policy is also another item which is irrelevant in calculating ACTUAL dividend metrics. Dividend policies is an announcement or a policy statement. The actual payment must be approved by a board meeting and can be suspended under the policy statement.

On that SET factsheet, they calculated the 15% yield on last year paid dividends, that is the last completed year. So the 15% was real if you had hold the stock since January 1 2015. There was however a special dividend that year, which explained the high yield. Looking at history, don't think you should expect that 15% to happen again this year or every year. The Fund probably sold some assets and had distributed the proceeds as dividends.

so it was an extraordinary 15%, for last year, and don't make a buying decision on that alone since there is no indication it will happen again this year despite the misleading SET Factsheet. It will be more like 5% or 6% like it has been historically.

and again, daily volume is fine, ranging from 300,000 THB in a slow day to millions of THB, which should be enough in a small porftolio

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## lob

> and daily volume is not too bad, not sure why you thought otherwise
> 
> for a small investor more than enough,
> 
> https://www.set.or.th/set/historical...=en&country=US


what makes a small invester,  non fund investers. ??

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## lob

> 15% dividend ? let me look that one up, I would have caught a while ago if that was really the case
> 
> I think you got messed up in your calculation, typical with amateur investors, can't even calculate the right performance metrics


apology due ??

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## Dragonfly

> apology due ??


not really, the 15% was overstated by a special dividend and you should have caught that instead of claiming it was a 15% dividend stock implying it was regularly paying 15%, while it wasn't, it's actually a 5% or 6% dividend stock

and the calculation is wrong anyhow, using last year dividend payment as current yield

this is why you should never take any number for granted, and always do your own calculation or adjustment if it needs to

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## Dragonfly

> what makes a small invester,  non fund investers. ??


a small investor is anyone with less than 50 Millions THB in assets,

non-professional investors is anyone with no formal knowledge on capital markets and deep stock analysis,

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## lob

fuck thats me

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## lob

please bend with me here,,, explain how last year wasn't 15%,  and how u make it different.i will check previous yrs.

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## Dragonfly

check the SET factsheet link I posted here, they list the dividend payments for every period, and on average they pay 5% or 6% dividend, not 15%

This year dividend will be about 0.30-0.35 THB and if they sell more assets (properties), it could be more as special dividend at year end, but nobody knows if it's going to happen, and you can't assume they will

The metrics on the SET website have a history of discrepancies and naive calculation assumptions, that's why you always need to recompute those numbers to make sure the assumptions are correct, because most of the time they are over simplified.

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## ChalkyDee

> Holy shit, did you just post something that didn't include a tired dig at another poster that you've previously posted at least a hundred times?


How sad. If you have nothing to say, shut up.

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## ChalkyDee

I opened a bank account called TMB50, based on the SET50. I made over 10% in the last year, including dividend. Easy to open -  Thai Military bank. 

Not as good as my Omise Go crypto that I bought at 20 baht in July, which is now 300 baht and going to soar. Also, got a lot of Kyber KNC, which is the next big one.

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## lob

right for wot its worth,,, based on share price of 4.6,,  yr 16...  16.8%,,,  yrs15/14...6/7 %   yr 13,,,  10%

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## Dragonfly

> right for wot its worth,,, based on share price of 4.6,,  yr 16...  16.8%,,,  yrs15/14...6/7 %   yr 13,,,  10%


that's the problem with amateur investors, they don't do the research, too lazy or incapable of calculating metrics, 

and make rough decisions that usually ends in tear because they were doing "superficial" calculation, that of course "hide" the true valuation of stocks

there are plenty of 5% dividend stock on the SET that also rise in value and increase their dividends, give it a try

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## David48atTD

> I opened a bank account called TMB50, based on the SET50. I made over 10% in the last year, including dividend. Easy to open -  Thai Military bank. 
> 
> Not as good as my Omise Go crypto that I bought at 20 baht in July, which is now 300 baht and going to soar. Also, got a lot of Kyber KNC, which is the next big one.


I didn't know about the 'TMB50' ... good find.

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## redhaze

> if all you do is logon into your UK bank account and buy some kind of UCITS at market price, then you are not really trading since you do not have a limit price in mind


You really are quite the pompous know it all. LMAO, as if placing limit orders makes you Leo Di-freaking-Caprio.  :rofl: 




> with SET, like most bourses, you can play the bid/ask thing and get the trade at the cost that you want, instead of paying immediate market price that only impatient fools go for


Or try this one: A fool tries to get a better price than the market will ever give him, and the stock tears away from him on the high end leaving him dry when he could have been in the money. See how that goes?

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## Dragonfly

redhaze, you silly fraud, investing is not entering limit orders on a computer terminal, anyone can do that and I have people for that  :Razz: 

and DiCaprio was playing a fraudster,  not a trader, you silly ignorant amateur  :Smile: 

trading and investing are two different things, but you wouldn't know that  :Wink:

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## redhaze

> and I have people for that


Bwahahahahaha

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## David48atTD

> redhaze, you silly fraud, investing is not entering limit orders on a computer terminal, anyone can do that and I have people for that 
> 
> and DiCaprio was playing a fraudster,  not a trader, you silly ignorant amateur 
> 
> trading and investing are two different things, but you wouldn't know that


*
Dragonfly*, it would be appreciated if, instead of yelling at member contributing to the thread that you had a positive contribution instead.

Maybe you can offer up specific advice on a stock/share which you think is undervalued and the potential for that stock/share.

I think we all want to make money and stay invested in good shares.

Thanks

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## lob

> *
> Dragonfly*, it would be appreciated if, instead of yelling at member contributing to the thread that you had a positive contribution instead.
> 
> Maybe you can offer up specific advice on a stock/share which you think is undervalued and the potential for that stock/share.
> 
> I think we all want to make money and stay invested in good shares.
> 
> Thanks


wot e said

w

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## Dragonfly

I did, and all I got was Red haze venting his frustration to me with his usual attacks

the poor unsecured little thing had to be put back into his place,

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## redhaze

> the poor unsecured little thing had to be put back into his place,


Or you just looked like a dumb lout per usual. AKA reality.





> I have people for that


 :rofl: 

Oh man, that's not gonna get old anytime soon.

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## redhaze

Ok enough about butters and his rantings, I'll go ahead and post some random thoughts here to ponder and hopefully encourage discussion. 

With the market just skyrocketing lately, valuations at near historic highs, equities are overpriced, values are harder to come by, and dividends are mostly shit I think that's all pretty clear. History tells us this will come crashing down at some point just like it always does. In the meantime, however, there is nowhere else to put our money so we are in. But how do we manage risk in a risky environment?

I've been entertaining implementing broad trailing stops on all my investments as I don't particularly care for a buy and hold strategy at these valuations. The fall is just too steep and at some point ya gotta cut your losses. I've gone back and forth at a trailing stop between 15-20% but am undecided which one I want to stick with. Everything is making money so nothing is coming close to 15% which is allowing me some time to think. With a 15% trailing stop you can cut your losses short, but a 20% trailing stop puts you firmly in bear territory and helps avoid noise so I think I like the 20% stop a little better.

Setting a stop loss is easy. The problem with getting stopped out is when to reenter. That's where the headache comes in. Worse case scenario is getting stopped out at the bottom and see the market take off back to the positive just after you get stopped out.

Anyone have any thoughts, opinions, musings on any of this? Anyone else use stops? What about reentry strategies after a position is stopped out?

Any and all thoughts are welcome!

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## Dragonfly

> Or you just looked like a dumb lout per usual. AKA reality.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Oh man, that's not gonna get old anytime soon.


only in your unsecured little head  :Smile: 

and you don't have people for trading ? what kind of amateur are you !!!  :Razz:

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## Dragonfly

> Ok enough about butters and his rantings, I'll go ahead and post some random thoughts here to ponder and hopefully encourage discussion. 
> 
> With the market just skyrocketing lately, valuations at near historic highs, equities are overpriced, values are harder to come by, and dividends are mostly shit I think that's all pretty clear. History tells us this will come crashing down at some point just like it always does. In the meantime, however, there is nowhere else to put our money so we are in. 
> !


you are calling this deep thoughts ? this is what everyone is saying already but thanks for telling us again what is all over investment websites  :Smile: 




> But how do we manage risk in a risky environment?


well playing with stop-loss is not going to help you mitigate risks, just saying, so maybe you should look else where to manage risks

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## redhaze

As others have said, participate or go away




> and you don't have people for trading ? what kind of amateur are you !!!



The type of ameteur who picks and manages my own investments




> well playing with stop-loss is not going to help you mitigate risks, just saying, so maybe you should look else where to manage risks


See if you actually had something to add you'd be throwing out more than hot air. But you clearly don't. Time to let the adults talk now

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## Dragonfly

> Time to let the adults talk now


you are clearly not one of them since you came here with your usual unwarranted attacks, the same MO you use in many threads on TD

as for your input, you repeat what everyone else knows already.

as for your risk approach, I advise to look elsewhere than simple stop-loss, which is completely inadequate if you expect a real crash

my recommendation to you if you really believe what you believe, is to sell everything and keeps everything in cash until the crash happens

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## redhaze

> my recommendation to you if you really believe what you believe, is to sell everything and keeps everything in cash until the crash happens


My largest position is in cash but hedges are always an important part of challenging your assumptions. To me that means some of my money belongs in the market. The entire point of the exercise is to hedge against the possibility of a crash not happening and challenge what I think I know. Its also challenging history too though, which is always a pretty dicey proposition. 




> as for your risk approach, I advise to look elsewhere than simple stop-loss, which is completely inadequate if you expect a real crash


Please elaborate




> well playing with stop-loss is not going to help you mitigate risks


Please elaborate

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## Dragonfly

October is always a dangerous month for crash,

sell everything, buy back later at cheaper or same cost or a bit higher, think of it as an insurance premium

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## cyrille

So _that_ was the big reveal?  :Sad:

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## redhaze

> as for your risk approach, I advise to look elsewhere





> October is always a dangerous month for crash, sell everything


Nah think I'll just stick with what I've got going and keep running up the gains until actual numbers say otherwise (hence the entire point of the trailing stops) thanks though. 

A strategy based on history wouldn't have me in the market at these prices in the first place so I'm sure the hell not gonna narrow my approach down. How would the idea of pulling all my money out make more sense than a simple tight stop loss of say 5% to run up the gains with minimal losses? Not that I'm going to do that because a tight stop like that is clearly a dumb idea, but its surely a better idea than just pulling money out for some arbitrary idea like "its October" when the bull market is running hotter than ever. Why do that when a tight stop could expose you to all gains with incredibly minimal downside? Plus you understand that there has only been a little over 100 Octobers in US market history right? That sample size is subject to random error and high standard deviations.




> this is what everyone is saying already but thanks for telling us again what is all over investment websites





> October is always a dangerous month for crash,





> So that was the big reveal?


I would say the emperor has no clothes but that feels like it would just be insulting to the naked emperor.

Hoping someone else will have something more constructive to add to this

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## David48atTD

*Outlook: Up and down with the support of 1,650/1,630 points*

*Outlook:* 
The  SET Index for Oct-17 is expected to weaken, with the support of  1,650/1,630 points and the resistance of 1,680/1,700 points, 
due to  profit taking from foreign investors as the year end is nearing. 

Our  anticipation is based on the fact that the current index implies upside  of a mere 3% vs. our 2018E base-case SET target of 1,720 points 
and the  geopolitical risk in the Korean Peninsula is increasing. In addition,  the Feds decision to reduce its balance sheet by US$10mn/month 
may have  some impact on financial markets. 

Internally,  we expect the Thai equity market to see limited momentum due to the  royal cremation ceremony and the expected absence of a 
positive surprise  from banks earnings (earnings growth in large banks is expected to be  limited while smaller banks with a focus on auto hire 
purchase are  likely to report better growth).


*Recommended Stocks: 
*Stocks  with short-term positive catalysts or with expected strong earnings  growth in 3Q17E, 
i.e., BCP, BDMS, CPALL, DELTA, IRPC, QH, SPALI, STEC,  TCAP and TISCO. 


*October Statistics:* 
Based on ten-year historical data (2007-2016), there was a 30% possibility that the SET Index in the month of October  
would  close negative, with an average return of -1.1%MoM, a maximum return of  +7.3%MoM (in 2007) and a minimum return of -30.2%MoM (in 2008). 
The  market continued to lower -0.9%MoM in November before turning positive again in December at +1.6%MoM.  


*Fund Flow:* 
The  ten-year historical data for the month of October (2007  2016) also  shows that foreign investors net sold at an average of -Bt575mn 
and  continued to do so at -Bt16.2bn and Bt6.7bn in November and December,  respectively.


*Catalysts: 
*i) reports of banks 3Q17 earnings results; 
ii) Thai economic growth, especially in terms of exports; and 
iii) buying on LTF/RMF funds. 


*Concerns:*
i)  the expectation that the ECB will announce reducing its QE size in its  meeting this month; 
ii) uncertain US politics; 
iii) growing geopolitical  tension in the Korean Peninsula; 
iv) profit taking/portfolio  adjustments by foreign investors; 
v) suspended activities, especially  for entertainment, due to the royal cremation ceremony.

Thanks to *KT ZMICO Securities*

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## lob

> that's the problem with amateur investors, they don't do the research, too lazy or incapable of calculating metrics, 
> 
> and make rough decisions that usually ends in tear because they were doing "superficial" calculation, that of course "hide" the true valuation of stocks
> 
> there are plenty of 5% dividend stock on the SET that also rise in value and increase their dividends, give it a try


hank u for the reply. please now address the point i made.

t

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## lob

chalky can u get a visa letter on the strength of the tmb account.

butters please try to curb your antagonistic nature.. its fine in the lounge but no fucking use to me as an amateur investor.  i only come to td, one for a laugh which some one provides daily, and two to hone my education.
i accept u may well be a guru, so have something to teach me. but u are no fucking use to society as a teacher.... please get over yourself

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## jabir

> chalky can u get a visa letter on the strength of the tmb account.
> 
> butters please try to curb your antagonistic nature.. its fine in the lounge but no fucking use to me as an amateur investor. i only come to td, one for a laugh which some one provides daily, and two to hone my education.
> i accept u may well be a guru, so have something to teach me. but u are no fucking use to society as a teacher.... please get over yourself


Not sure if this answers your question but for my last visa extension they said embassy letter is enough and no need for a bank letter. 100 bt wasted, though next year I expect some uniform to own a shaking head when I turn up without a bank letter. 

If 'butters' is Dragonfly, good idea to contribute without talking down to everyone like the other forum hooligans.

PTG now 24.30 and still going north.

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## lob

butters does get picked on a lot as u may well know,  however he will only get bollockings from me not bullying.  he only cheapens his value by talking shit that has no bearing on this blog.  butters please contribute , i wish to learn.

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## Dragonfly

my replies are getting deleted, and when I try to expose investment mistakes or frauds by some here, I get insulted  :Smile: 

not much more to say, but I can simply tell you what to avoid before making mistakes

Stop loss to mitigate market risk and market crash is NOT a good option,

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## Dragonfly

> So _that_ was the big reveal?


nothing to reveal, it's more about common sense

if you believe there is a crash coming because markets are overvalued, then it's time to put money where your mouth is, and that is to take your profits and stay in cash

for larger portfolios, it takes tmes to switch to cash, so you can start shorting S&P Futures or even a S&P ETF or some Index that best represent your investment strategy (Russell 2000) to protect yourself temporarily from an upcoming big drop

99% of small investors will fail making money in markets over the long run, like they would if playing the casinos, and will lag in terms of returns some kind of broad market index with no particular investment trend.

Stop loss should be the less of your worries when investing as it's inadequate for 99% of small investors, it's all about investment style allocation and managing those allocations.

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## redhaze

> Stop loss to mitigate market risk and market crash is NOT a good option,


For the tenth time: Why? 

Explain your rationale 




> for larger portfolios, it takes tmes to switch to cash, so you can start shorting S&P Futures or even a S&P ETF or some Index that best represent your investment strategy (Russell 2000) to protect yourself temporarily from an upcoming big drop


Terrible advice that exposes you to no theoretical loss limit.  Only a fool would short this bull market

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## jabir

SET is 5% away from all time high. I'm normally a bull but everything seems overheated, started pruning yesterday and by 4.20 today was down to two biggies, PTG (streets in front) and AQUA (safe in the green zone, low downside and huge upside, will play the waiting game).

Tips for today: Don't swoon over long words that make the speaker sound like they know what they're talking about; your broker is your bookie and a predator, not to be trusted even when they feed you the occasional sprat; don't get emotional/possessive over your holdings; nothing on the screen matters because you're only in profit when the money's in your pocket; do your own dd.

gl

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## redhaze

Good points and good post. Cheers

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## Dragonfly

> For the tenth time: Why? 
> 
> Explain your rationale 
> 
> 
> 
> Terrible advice that exposes you to no theoretical loss limit.  Only a fool would short this bull market


you wouldn't understand anyhow, pointless

only a fool who think the market is overvalued and about to crash not starting looking at real options for getting out instead of relying very naively on a stop loss

if you have a small portfolio, take your profit and stay in cash until valuation feels a bit less overvalued

like I said, October is a dangerous month, some might not believe it, and feel sorry later. October could also end up spectacular. So it's gamble at the end.

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## Dragonfly

I have a ton of "bargains" I wanted to buy recently, but I am pausing because of October (never underestimate season effects), if it crash, I can buy them at a bigger bargain

Win-Win  :Razz:

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## redhaze

> you wouldn't understand anyhow, pointless


No you just can't explain it because it makes no sense and you have no point





> only a fool who think the market is overvalued and about to crash not starting looking at real options for getting out instead of relying very naively on a stop loss


Technically its a stop limit. 

Since you're bothering commenting you could actually make yourself useful and explain any of your opinions. 

Your posts are all just worthless sniping with no insight.

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## redhaze

> only a fool who think the market is overvalued and about to crash not starting looking at real options for getting out instead of relying very naively on a stop loss


Who said anything about the market "about to crash"? Its like you just enjoy making shit up, I've said I think its due for a substantial correction. That correction could come years from now though. I've said all of this more than once now, but pat on the head there you just go ahead and keep typing what you want to have been said not what was actually said.

On a happy note, eery individual stock I own is up between 1-3% today. Think I'll go ahead and stick with my plan of riding these winnings out with a stop to minimize losses

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## Dragonfly

> No you just can't explain it because it makes no sense and you have no point
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Technically its a stop limit. 
> 
> Since you're bothering commenting you could actually make yourself useful and explain any of your opinions. 
> 
> Your posts are all just worthless sniping with no insight.


I suggest you google the inherent trading risks behind a stop loss, it's quite simply. No need to explain to you, you should know them already, and if you don't, then you are a bit hopeless, and I am not engaging into a lecture with someone who can't even understand the basics of a stop loss.

I gave you already the options, again quite simple, but you obstinate yourself into thinking they should be more. Why bother discussing them with you then ?  :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic): 


Anyway, for those interested I can only highlight the risks they take, and that's a good start for most

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## Dragonfly

> Who said anything about the market "about to crash"? Its like you just enjoy making shit up, I've said I think its due for a substantial correction. That correction could come years from now though. I've said all of this more than once now, but pat on the head there you just go ahead and keep typing what you want to have been said not what was actually said.
> 
> On a happy note, eery individual stock I own is up between 1-3% today. Think I'll go ahead and stick with my plan of riding these winnings out with a stop to minimize losses


if it's years away from correction, then the market is not overvalued. Again a lot of confusion and assumptions on your side.

For professionals, when you say it's due for a correction or a crash, then you start preparing yourself now, not in 2 or 3 years with only stop loss on securities as a plan to the correction.

Only a fool will wait until the last second, or the market high to start making decisions to protect himself from a correction. Everyone else with a clue, start putting their money where their mouth is, and that is cash or shorting corners of the market.

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## redhaze

> if it's years away from correction, then the market is not overvalued.


I have no idea whether its years away from a correction or not. 




> Only a fool will wait until the last second, or the market high to start making decisions to protect himself from a correction.


Only a fool attempts to time the market down to the day. No one can do that successfully over a long time period, its a complete fool's errand. 

I don't think you know anything about investing, I'm just gonna throw that out there. Everything you say is just a lot of hot air, and when asked to expand you try and pretend like you're not expanding because you're too smart. But bottom line, I'm just gonna a spade an obvious spade: You don't know dick about investing.

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## Dragonfly

Well sorry to disappoint you but I am professionally in the financial industry, while you are not

and you have the typical signature of ignorant investors who can't learn and think they know it all, hence why I won't engage with your silly arguments

Plenty of frauds come to TD to pitch their investing "expertise" and I usually expose them in a matter of days. You are not the first one, and you seem a bit new on TD  :Smile: 

One famous guy was a convinced fraudster and he was as vindicative as you are when I started to expose him  :Smile: 

Enjoy your stop loss and castle in the sky,

in the meantime, I will continue to expose risks and mistakes done by some in this thread

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## redhaze

> Well sorry to disappoint you but I am professionally in the financial industry


 :smiley laughing: 

Oh man, thanks for the laugh. That's good stuff...






> One famous guy was a convinced fraudster and he was as vindicative as you are when I started to expose him


No idea what you are on about here. I want you to add something useful to the thread or fuck off.

If you're not willing to engage or just don't have the knowledge to do so that's fine. Stop screwing up the thread and filling it with your lame nonsense. You've been asked by others, not just me.




> Plenty of frauds come to TD to pitch their investing "expertise" and I usually expose them in a matter of days


Yeah let me know when that starts to happen.

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## Dragonfly

the thread was doing fine before you showed up with your usual stupid remarks and your attacks to cover your fragile little ego,

what was asked is for you and me to stop our heated exchange, which you did for a while, and even edited some of your posts to cover up your attacks (probably a request by the mod before they deleted my replies)

I will contribute as I see it fit, that is warning people of possible mistakes they are making, and you are not the thread master to tell us what to say here

One thing I can tell others is not to use a Stop Loss as a protection for a large or even market correction, that simply doesn't work

you want to continue to persuade us that you have the best option for a market correction, and I am telling you you haven't and you are throwing a fit over it like a 12yr old girl

what else there is to say ? do not put a Stop Loss order on your securities if you want to protect yourself from a correction.

It's like telling a kid, do not put your dick in the tube of a vaccuum cleaner, he might ask you why and throw a fit over it, but you can only tell him don't  :Smile: 

it's really that simple,

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## redhaze

As a courtesy to the OP I am going to refrain from engaging in this nonsense any further. 

Hopefully others can continue the thread in a more constructive manner.

Lots of money to be made out there, hope everyone is doing good with it!

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## redhaze

Oh one last thing for those who are actually interested in the risks of stop losses. 

The biggest problem with setting a market order stop loss is that when stock prices are falling very quickly say during a market crash you can have a situation where you wind up having your sell order filled at a market price that is much lower than what you set your stop loss at. Another issue is when you set a stop loss and the market runs through the stop loss in overnight trading you can miss your target price and the order won't even get filled.

If you place a stop limit order, you can mitigate some of this problem by setting a value on the lowest price you are willing to sell at. The problem again, is that in a quickly moving market you may never get your sell order filled at the price you want and you are stuck owning the shares you wanted to sell at a higher price. 

None of these factors means that these orders have no value or serve no purpose, they certainly do. Its just that nothing is fool proof and nothing can guarantee you won't lose money. All you can do is attempt to mitigate the risk using the available tools

And that's stop loss/stop limit risk in a nutshell. 

Cheers everybody!

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## Dragonfly

see that was not so hard redhaze, and thanks for finally proving my point that a stop loss won't protect you from a crash

this is why you short certain instruments to protect yourself from an upcoming market drop,

stop loss is fine when you do a lot of active trading in a volatile market, and you need to protect your open trades

for a normal long term retail investor, it doesn't make much sense as he will buy and hold assets for a while, not manage speculative trades for a few hours or a few days

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## redhaze

Yeah it was easy. I was actually looking for YOUR perspective, not mine. You made a statement but couldn't or wouldn't back it up. That's on you, not me.

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## Dragonfly

I had the same perspective on stop loss, there was no statements to backup if you also knew what risks a stop loss has. Strange that was not clear in your mind. Maybe you did your own research after our exchange and that's a good thing. See, learn by yourself after I pointed out the "limits", that's how it should be done. We simply didn't have the same conclusions regarding them. And selling at a cost you have no real control of with a stop loss in a crash market situation is really something you want to avoid at all cost. Always try to keep control of your mix of securities and use additional instruments to protect your overall portfolio, not rely on a simple trading algo as an exit plan. Some crazy Hedge Funds could go with that for hundreds of speculative securities but the average small retail investor is not in that situation.

Maybe a sensitive question, how big is your invested portfolio ? less than 1m USD ? less than 100k USD ? less than 10k USD ?

are you trading futures ? 

margin trades ? or cash only trades ?

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## redhaze

I didn't do any research following our exchange. Like many here I'm looking for real feedback and an exchange with other investors.

In terms of my portfolio, I'll say its around 10% of my net worth and I'm not a millionaire. I think I said this before, but my stock ownings are mostly a hedge against the idea that we are due for a substantial correction. I am waiting to make a big move and have been for a few years. I'm a patient person

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## David48atTD

> AQUA: Hope you're on, the next few days should tell if it's up and running or a false start, but looks like the waiting game paid off, resistance at mid-80s and then around 1.00 before a more or less clear run to 1.50, as ever with mini corrections and profit taking en route and subject to no coup or local nuke exchange. 
> 
> Bit of sorcery: aside from attractive fundamentals and investments, AQUA's 15 year chart shows sharp spikes to around 1.50 during 2005, 2008, 2014 and hopefully 2017; the missing link in this 3-year cycle was 2011, but look closer and you'll see it started the year in the low 20s and still hit 70s, which is a fine performance against the dust flying that year; and consistently higher lows since 2013, lowest was when I posted it has bottomed out at 66.


Interesting developments ...




> Exposing Victorias Secretand the NCPOs  graft                                                                                                                              Anonymous     - 17 May, 2018 
> 
> Aqua was to serve as a conduit to launder money from the massage business and other shady deals.
> 
> Chuwit pointed out that the amount of money channelled through Aqua is far larger than what could be 
> made from a massage parlour business and suggested Aqua is also being used to launder money from government corruption. 
> Records of share ownership and business dealings confirm the story. 
> 
> Aqua quickly moved to stop reporting about its links to the massage business by launching a 333 million baht lawsuit against 
> ...

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## jabir

I offloaded some at -5%, most at -8% before the stock dropped 35% due to AQUA's associations, which in line with Thai integrity were understandably not reported. The company is still operating and paying divis, though I would be surprised to see it go anywhere from mid-50s until the gods decide what to do. 

Bits trickling through suggest a large % of stock and money is frozen in lieu of a resolution after which it should rise, or could end up in a multi-year court session and down to 30-35, but that's unlikely as it's clear that a large chunk of the investment was derived from prostitution which doesn't exist in Thailand as it's illegal.

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## David48atTD

Banque Pour Le Commerce Exterieur Lao ... (BCEL)

Outstanding yield, attractive valuation Cheap valuation and solid dividend yield the main positive catalysts.
We maintain our Buy rating for *BCEL*.

We still see the bank as attractive in terms of its undemanding valuation at current (with2019P/BVandPERofjust0.58xand3.6x,respectively), *the outstanding dividend yield of ~17%* and its improving financial position.

We also see BCEL being a prime beneficiary of Lao PDRs GDP growth of ~ 7% , given that it is among the leading banks in the country and the core banking arm of the Lao government.




Too good to be true?

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## David48atTD

From my Broker ...




> Dear Mr. David,
> 
>  TISCO  is good but I think the price is too high. 
> 
> I recommend KKP which also  provide good dividend 7.16% and another stock is ASK which provides  dividend 6.88%.
> 
>  If you would like Infrastructure Funds, I recommend TFFIF which name is THAILAND FUTURE FUND. 
> 
> They  invest in the right to receive 45% of the Net Toll Revenue collected  from the existing routes of the Chalong Rat and Burapha Withi  Expressways for a 30-year period from October 29, 2018  (the Transfer Revenue date in accordance with the Revenue Transfer  Agreement). 
> ...

----------

