#  >  > Living And Legal Affairs In Thailand >  >  > Thailand and Asia News >  >  > Business, Finance & Economics in Thailand >  >  Financial shock for those holding British Pounds

## Begbie

The British pound has fallen over a cliff in the last 7 days. Latest rates 1.87 against the US dollar, 63.2 to the Thai Baht.

The governor of the bank of england drives the stampede.
..................................................  .........................

BBC NEWS | Business | Recession fears weigh on sterling

*The pound has sunk to 22-month lows against the dollar after the Bank of England's inflation report warned the UK could be heading for a recession.* 
Sterling sank more than 3 cents to $1.8769 in the wake of the report. 
While the report said growth would be "broadly flat", Governor Mervyn King said there was a possibility that output may fall.

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## Ivor Biggun

That's it make me feel more depressed

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## britmaveric

$1.60-$1.70 is more reasonable rate. Currencies are cyclic so sterling's time to take a dump.

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## Sir Burr

It hasn't fallen as much as the Aussie dollar against the US$. .97 to .86 in three weeks, or, so.

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## good2bhappy

time to get a job!

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## Sir Burr

It hasn't fallen as much as the Aussie dollar against the US$. 0.97 to 0.86 in three weeks, or, so.

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## Smeg

> The British pound has fallen over a cliff in the last 7 days. Latest rates 1.87 against the US dollar, 63.2 to the Thai Baht.


It was 61 baht to the pound when i first came to thailand, so still better than that rate.

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## Ivor Biggun

I was 74 Baht in 2005

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## Begbie

When I was complaining about the 1% interest rate on my US$ dollars four weeks ago HSBC told me to hang on as the dollar was about make a major rise. First time they've been correct.

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## Gerbil

Hmmm.... Interesting. I've been holding onto a lot of dollars for the last year as I didnt want to convert them to Baht at a shitty rate. Wonder if I should think about moving them to my UK account......

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## bkkmadness

^^^ How much are you worth now?

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## Thormaturge

Sterling is long overdue for a drop against the Dollar, but more to the point the Baht is overdue for a drop against everything.

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## panama hat

> ^^^ How much are you worth now?


13 pounds sixpence

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## chitown

> the Baht is overdue for a drop against everything.


 Bring it on Thormaturge!!!

 :rock_dj:   :rock_dj: 


 :party43:   :party43:

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## good2bhappy

I remember 38

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## bkkandrew

All as predicted here:

https://teakdoor.com/business-finance...tml#post681702 (Thailand's Baht, Peso --- Decline)

https://teakdoor.com/business-finance...tml#post676436 (Thailand's Baht, Peso --- Decline)

https://teakdoor.com/business-finance...tml#post651735 (Thailand's Baht, Peso --- Decline)




> The effects, however, will probably be that GBP follows THB down, maintaining a 65-70 range...


The only saving grace in the downside in the THB. As I have been banging on for some time, the UK housing collapse is causing real solvency issues for UK banks, which, given that Financial Services are largest sector of the UK economy, there is only one way for Sterling to go in the short to medium term - down. :Sad:

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## DrivingForce

I'm just wondering where all of those doomsday analysts went that were on here just a few months ago predicting the world wide demise of the dollar as the prime currency and $150 per barrel oil prices by now.

Even this war in Georgia which is the type of event that used to be any excuse to throw a party by the speculators isn't stemming the decline..  :gw bush: 

A loss in baht value would kill us though as we live on bahts and that means inflation is going to rise here, so give it with one hand and take it away in larger values with the other. can't win for losing.. the decline in oil helps a bit but we don't own a car anyway.  :Sad: 

I'll never get out of this shit hole..  :Sad:  it may be time to search out the 5 story building with a nice view and low railings... :Sad:

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## Thormaturge

> Originally Posted by bkkmadness
> 
> 
> ^^^ How much are you worth now?
> 
> 
> 13 pounds sixpence


 
£ 13.025 for younger readers.

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## Butterfly

^^^ you are fucking genius, bkka  :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic): 

even a broken clock got it right twice a day,

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## good2bhappy

LSD bring back the old days

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## kingwilly

> It hasn't fallen as much as the Aussie dollar against the US$. .97 to .86 in three weeks, or, so.


and thank fuck too!

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## Butterfly

The AD is bound to re-adjust also,

the USD is definitely bouncing back, the usual market speculations and over reactions followed by an adjustment to reality until the next cycle of delusions by speculators,

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## minime

[quote=bkkandrew;720727]All as predicted here:





> there is only one way for Sterling to go in the short to medium term - down.


I hope it stays above 60 to a pound, who thinks it will go below? I hope not I get paid in pounds.

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## bkkandrew

> ^^^ you are fucking genius, bkka 
> 
> even a broken clock got it right twice a day,


Oh - and a reminder of your comment on my predictions and the reasons for them:




> ^ these are small bad news among the storm, nothing major like I said
> 
> next,

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## DrivingForce

[quote=minime;720759]


> All as predicted here:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 			
> 				there is only one way for Sterling to go in the short to medium term - down.
> ...


Greedy??  :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

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## Begbie

62.95

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## bkkandrew

[quote=minime;720759]


> All as predicted here:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 			
> 				there is only one way for Sterling to go in the short to medium term - down.
> ...


As I said before, the GBP will follow THB down (coincidence, rather than any link), so the net rate between the two currencies should stay as is +/- 5%...

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## Thetyim

COB 13/8/2008
Bangkok Bank TT Rate
GBP = 63.76

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## bkkandrew

> 62.95


Yep, the chickens are coming home to roost. Insolvent banks = insolvent country.

Sterling down 2% against THB, over 2% against the YEN, and nearly 2% against Sing Dollar and NZ Dollar. Everything else between 1-1.5%.

I planned this years trading at 60 as a worse-case. Looks like no bunce for me the way things are headed.

Need the THB crash to speed up!

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## bkkandrew

> COB 13/8/2008
> Bangkok Bank TT Rate
> GBP = 63.76


That was this morning's rate.

Take a look tomorrow.  :Sad:

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## Butterfly

so bkka, I would hate to burst your bubble again and your alarmist predictions, but so far your predictions have been busted

oil gloom, busted
US going down, busted
end of the world, busted
BP going the toilet, probably busted within a few weeks

That's not even 1 out of 2, bkka, maybe if you are lucky, 1 out of 4 if the BP doesn't rebound next month

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## bkkmadness

The credit crunch will hit the mia nois hardest.

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## bkkandrew

Right, lets deal with you (once more)




> oil gloom, busted


No, I pointed out the supply and demand driver to the price of oil. I showed you that the current collapse of the US economy was more than accounting for rising Chinese demand. You still seem unable or unwilling to understand this.




> US going down, busted


Anyone who seriously thinks that the US economy is doing well at the moment are either in a loony hospital, or called Butterfly. I'll remain with my point of view thanks.




> end of the world, busted


Can you show me where I have predicted this?




> BP going the toilet, probably busted within a few weeks


I have not made a single post on this or any other forum about BP. I have no idea what you are talking about.




> That's not even 1 out of 2, bkka, maybe if you are lucky, 1 out of 4 if the BP doesn't rebound next month


So actually thats 3 out of 3. But then again, maths has never been your strong point... :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

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## minime

[quote=DrivingForce;720767]


> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> 
> All as predicted here:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yeah!  :Smile:

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## Butterfly

> So actually thats 3 out of 3


^ living in lala land again ?  :Smile: 




> But then again, maths has never been your strong point


Thanks, still doing better than you could. So can you explain again your price elasticity theory where oil price keeps going up because demand is super sensitive  :Smile:

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## Begbie

Pound continues on down

Baht tomorrow surely

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## Texpat

As an accomplished Anglophile, I can assure you the pound's decline is due to very poor manners,  retarded leaders,  shit cars and general dumb ass disease. The precipitous decline has also been attributed to shit food and poor dental hygiene.

See, we can do it too.  :Smile: 

Need a mint?

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## Thetyim

> Need a mint?


Yes
Both Polo and Royal please

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## Butterfly

> Pound continues on down


it's only down .145 in one day, no big deal, small panic, the usual. It could rebound any day, who the fuck knows, I wouldn't worry

remember when the BP was in the shit in the early 90s ? was it the end of England ? au contraire, the cheap currency eventually was a kick starter for the economy,

not sure it would be the same this time, but a lower BP will eventually benefit the Brits,

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## Jet Gorgon

I'm not a Brit, so can I have a glass of wine, Tex?
I'm happy. I'm paid in greenbacks.

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## DrivingForce

[quote=minime;720826]


> Originally Posted by minime
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> ...


at least your straight forward about it...  :Wink:

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## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by Begbie
> 
> Pound continues on down
> 
> 
> it's only down .145 in one day, no big deal, small panic, the usual. It could rebound any day, who the fuck knows, I wouldn't worry


What's this now, fool?

.145 - what does that mean? Against what? Is it a percentage? Perhaps a callibre?

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## Butterfly

^ you wouldn't know, it's all the same for you, troll  :Smile:

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## bkkandrew

> I'm not a Brit, so can I have a glass of wine


Its only just gone midday where you are Jettie!

Anyway, I can't talk, as I cracked open an agreeable Chataux Lafite at about 4.30pm as I was finished at work and the weather was to pissy to consider going out.

I hate being in the UK. At least my BKK flight departs in a couple of weeks.

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## Texpat

> I'm not a Brit, so can I have a glass of wine, Tex?
> I'm happy. I'm paid in greenbacks.


Me too. These _grounded pounders_ can lick my boots for a quarter. Last year the shoe was on the other foot and no end of naysayers were forecasting the end. I could dig up the quotes, but won't do to any length to embarrass them.

Whoopsie!  :Smile:  DOW 6K  :Smile:

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## bkkandrew

^If you are waiting and watching for phase two of the meltdown, don't leave your seat Tex...

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## Texpat

OK, I'll be waiting.  :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic): 

Nudge me if I happen to fall asleep.

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## bkkandrew

^You dismissed phase one about 9-months ago. Do you want me to find you post?

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## DrivingForce

> As an accomplished Anglophile, I can assure you the pound's decline is due to very poor manners, retarded leaders, shit cars and general dumb ass disease. The precipitous decline has also been attributed to shit food and poor dental hygiene.
> 
> See, we can do it too. 
> 
> Need a mint?


We can, but we don't have that same level of insecurity nor do we want to stoop to that level and besides we lack the rapier sharp wit that the british are so infamous for  :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):  ..........or is it raper? I don't remember.....Oh well some of us don't anyway....  :Wink:

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## Texpat

It's called tired, old, worn out cliches we've all heard 1,000 times.




> You dismissed phase one about 9-months ago. Do you want me to find you post?


I recall suggesting it will be a blip on the historical radar in 10 years. Then adjusted it down to five. Your alarmist tendencies are just too OTT for me.

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## bkkandrew

^Yep - and I have bookmarked it for posterity  :Smile:

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## Fybo

> LSD bring back the old days


..and the colours! :Smokin:

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## Slipstream

Tex is just joking (maybe?), but he is funny sometimes.
For me about the only small upshot is I get some $ income from overseas so at least that means a better exchange rate.  
I hope for when I hit LOS in winter time things will swing up again.
Here's to hoping  :Smile:

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## prufrock

> Sterling is long overdue for a drop against the Dollar, but more to the point the Baht is overdue for a drop against everything.


but more to the point the Baht is overdue for a drop against everything Exactly. And why is it not happening.

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## chinthee

When it gets back to a reasonable level of 1.5-6, I'll start to buy property there again.

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## Begbie

> Originally Posted by Thormaturge
> 
> 
> Sterling is long overdue for a drop against the Dollar, but more to the point the Baht is overdue for a drop against everything.
> 
> 
> but more to the point the Baht is overdue for a drop against everything Exactly. And why is it not happening.



Bank of Thailand buying baht perhaps. It's what they did in the ninties until they ran out of money.

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## Bobcock

*WHOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOO !!!!!!!!!!!*

I get paid in USD, have got them sitting in an account waiting for the day the rate makes them worth changing. My company gave me the option of switching to sterling at the current rate 3 weeks ago. 0.504 or 1.984. Told them to stuff it. Why lock myself in at the bottom?

Spoke to my Dad, they think it'll go lower, I'll start thinking of cashing once it hit's $1.70, though I remember holidaying in the USA at $1.19 many years ago.

Thai Baht was 44 when I first came here, but it went down to 37.5 a few years later, and up as high as 93. Don't ever change sterling to THB so that one doesn't worry me.

Fall Sterling Fall!!

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## Bobcock

> As an accomplished Anglophile, I can assure you the pound's decline is due to very poor manners, retarded leaders, shit cars and general dumb ass disease. The precipitous decline has also been attributed to shit food and poor dental hygiene.


You missed out fat ugly beer swilling birds as well.

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## Thormaturge

> Originally Posted by prufrock
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by Thormaturge
> ...


Thailand is sitting on a pile of foreign currency reserves which presumbly it is throwing away in order to avoid raising interest rates.  Should be amusing to hear the excuses when they run out of money.

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## ray23

Well being a dollar a earner I feel for you guys not fun. I watched my my useable income drop roughly 30% over a two year period. It will come back, hang in there. I'm afraid we all have some rough times coming, but just like bad gas it will pass.

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## ray23

Maybe you guys will catch a break here

"Thai Baht Set for Weekly Drop as Slower Growth May Damp Demand 

By Shanthy Nambiar

Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand's baht was poised for its fourth weekly decline on speculation slowing economic growth will curb demand for the nation's assets. 

The baht extended this month's loss to 0.7 percent after a finance ministry official yesterday said growth in the Southeast Asian economy may weaken further in the second half of the year. Global funds have cut their stock holdings on concerns political turmoil will delay policies to boost growth. 

``The currency will be affected by the stock market'' outflows, said Carol Chan, a currency analyst in Hong Kong at CFC Seymour Ltd. ``Politics is sapping investor confidence. In the near term we could see a little bit of depreciation in the baht.'' 

The Thai currency fell 0.2 percent to 33.78 per dollar as of 10 a.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It has declined 0.2 percent this week. The currency may trade between 33.60 and 33.90 next week, Chan said. 

Overseas fund managers sold $191 million more Thai stocks than they bought this week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

Thailand's economic growth slowed to 5.7 percent in the second quarter and that may give the central bank the opportunity to lower interest rates, Finance Ministry spokesman Somchai Sujjapongse said yesterday. The economy expanded 6 percent in the first quarter. 

The nation's Supreme Court issued arrest warrants for former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife after the couple fled to London and failed to appear this week before a court on corruption charges. 

There have been anti-Thaksin street protests since May, with protesters claiming current Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej is his proxy. 

To contact the reporter for this story: Shanthy Nambiar in Bangkok at snambiar1[at]bloomberg.net. 

Last Updated: August 14, 2008 23"

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## Spin

> The currency may trade between 33.60 and 33.90 next week


I see it being at the upper end of that scale. For once a decent prediction from the Thai camp. It might even see 34.05 if we're lucky.

Anything above the 78 line on this chart should give us 34baht plus to the dollar :Smile:  

linky

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## ray23

Bloomberg is already showing 33.81. What is pound doing against the baht?

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## bkkandrew

^62.85. It slipped again against the Greenback to 1.857... :Sad:

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## bkkandrew

Pound Declines 11th Day Versus Dollar, Sliding for Fourth Week 


By Andrew MacAskill and Kim-Mai Cutler


 

Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The pound slid for an 11th day against the dollar, the longest run of declines in at least 37 years, on speculation a recession will force the Bank of England to cut interest rates. 

The U.K. currency was headed for its biggest weekly drop since March 1995 after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said two days ago there was a ``chill in the economic air'' and a report showed unemployment climbed in July by the most in almost 16 years. Growth is being hurt as tourism flags and tax receipts fall. The pound tumbled 6.5 percent since July 31. 

``These are ferocious moves,'' said Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist in London at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. ``There has been a fundamental shift in thinking.'' 

The pound dropped 0.8 percent to $1.8554 as of 9:14 a.m. in London, from $1.8698 yesterday. The 11-day run was the longest since at least January 1971. The currency, poised for a 3.4 percent decline in the week, tumbled to a more than two-year low. The pound was at 79.37 pence per euro, from 79.28 pence. 
Britain's currency may recover to $1.90, though longer term it should still be sold against the dollar, Derrick said. 

The U.K. economy will expand about 0.1 percent on a year-on- year basis in the first quarter of 2009, compared with a previous prediction of 1 percent, according to central bank forecasts published two days ago. *Growth has sputtered as house prices plunge. The property market came to a ``virtual standstill'' in July, the Royal* *Institution of Chartered Surveyors** said this week.*

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## Seekingasylum

The pound is falling because Mervyn opined a few days ago that despite the sharp rise in inflation caused by food and energy costs he considered that the " core " rate was in fact stable. Notwithstanding this specious nonsense he suggested that there  may be latitude for a reduction in current rates by the end of the year.

This is of course absurd and he knows it but in a sentiment ridden speculative world it had the desired effect. Trashing the pound in the hope that recession will somehow be staved off whilst still maintaining interest rates at a level that supposedly lends credibility to his fight against inflation is him keeping his balls in the air. The truth is inflation everywhere is kicking in and recession is inevitable. The pound falls too far and inflation will simply increase. Any sentient being would increase rates another half to one point but we live in different times it seems

King is struggling under pressure from Brown who is increasingly becoming more deranged by the day.

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## Thormaturge

^
I think the UK will do anything at present to avoid raising interest rates further as the banking sector is already on its knees without even more mortgage arrears and repossessions.   

US rates are comparatively low and the Fed still has latitude to inrease them if necessary. The UK cannot do so without causing financial ruin and may be forced to reduce rates to avoid recession.    

It looks as though the US is coming out of the banking crisis in better shape than the UK.

FWIW Alistair Darling is looking like he could be the worst Chancellor of the Exchequer in living memory.  Certainly the only one I can recall who has had to reverse his own policies before delivering his first Budget.  At least we know Northern Rock will survive the banking crisis, even if it has no customers left and everything else goes under.

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## ray23

Remember the Us was the first one in and most likely be the first one out.

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## bkkandrew

> FWIW Alistair Darling is looking like he could be the worst Chancellor of the Exchequer in living memory.


Hardly surprising, given that he takes his insructions from (and tries to emulate) the twat next door.

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## Butterfly

UK super OwNeD, no GDP growth

BBC NEWS | Business | UK economy comes to a standstill

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## bkkandrew

^Worse than that actually, when you take into account that the GDP deflator is a blatant lie (and has been for the past 2-3 years), actual UK growth probably stands at -2% right now.

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## Seekingasylum

> Originally Posted by Thormaturge
> 
> 
>  
> FWIW Alistair Darling is looking like he could be the worst Chancellor of the Exchequer in living memory.
> 
> 
> Hardly surprising, given that he takes his insructions from (and tries to emulate) the twat next door.


A tad unfair.

Chap can only play the hand he has been dealt and it's hardly his fault that the deck is light and he is amongst company drinking the dregs up in the last chance saloon.

Hapless might be a more accurate term.

The real nigger in the woodpile is of course Blair whose stench of stale economic fart still permeates the air and taints all those buffoons without the sense to quit the crime scene that is now Britain.

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## bkkandrew

And still GBP falls:

*Sterling hits 2-year low vs dlr, 12-yr trade-weighted low*


LONDON, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Sterling sank to a two-year low against the dollar on Tuesday after a surprisingly weak reading of German business confidence bolstered the view that Europe, including the UK, is in increasingly in deep economic trouble. 

Sterling's slide against the greenback, which hit its highest level of the year against a basket of currencies, pushed the trade-weighted pound to its lowest since October 1996. 

These moves earlier in the European session, enough to mostly shrug off a later dollar lurch lower as oil rebounded $5, were triggered by the slump in the Ifo index of German business confidence to a three-year low. See [ID:nLQ231966]. 

Figures also out on Tuesday showed that German consumer confidence hit a five-year low, adding weight to the view that Germany and the euro zone may be edging closer to recession. 

As the euro zone is the UK's largest trading partner and export market, this is potentially bad news for sterling and an imbalanced UK economy over-reliant on consumption and imports. 

Continued here:

Sterling hits 2-year low vs dlr, 12-yr trade-weighted low - Forbes.com

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## keda

_...is in increasingly in deep economic trouble. 

_Reuters, don't they own a grammar checker?

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## Bobcock

I have just recceived my USD statement from my bank in Jersey.

They put the amount in USD and a Sterling equivelant.

The exchange rate used was 1.8384USD to 1GBP.

May it keep falling.

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## ray23

Boy I love how some guys think. Your losing money and you worry about if they tell you using proper grammer. Just curious will that change your bank account balance?

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## lounger

> Hmmm.... Interesting. I've been holding onto a lot of dollars for the last year as I didnt want to convert them to Baht at a shitty rate. Wonder if I should think about moving them to my UK account......


Thank goodness a real reply to the original quote. It is interesting in a way to see what the rate of exchange was when Stan expat from essex last looked, but I guess most people know this already.

Your reply requires some thought. Yes the pound is due for a fall, but against what?  If we know the answer to that then we can shift a few quid around and reap some benefit. I'm not saying I'm rich enough to have loads a' dollars in offshore accounts but understanding helps.

Long term the baht will rise and get more expensive so if your lucky enough to have 800,000 on deposit then try and add to it.

The dollar will rise against everything soon because its been oversold and people seek refuge in the dollar in uncertain times.

The euro will rise a bit because its becoming a replacement , although not yet big style, for the dollar.  Meanwhile the german bankers are more concerned about inflation than growth so they will make sure the euro keeps its value.

back to the pound. I dont think they know what they are doing ( growth versus inflation) so get out and buy something else.

In case you think I' a rich sod...I made a bit the other day cos I went to Krungsi bank and bought $400 as overkill on my visa run to Laos. I'm standing at a small profit......it'll buy a girl a drink....and that will lead to.....lifes not so bad!!!

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## mrsquirrel

All I care about is the fucking falling Won.

One of the few currencies to keep falling. Even when the dollar was tanking last few months the Won managed to tank lower.

The pounds fall from grace last month was great, but alas people have realised that Korea is fucked again and are pulling out.

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## bkkandrew

^And falling further. Issue at hand for those interested in THB is that for every problem cited for Korea and the Won, Thailand has at least three!

Anyway:

*Pictet, Aberdeen Sell Won as Bank of Korea Fights Currency Drop* 

By Kim Kyoungwha

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Pictet Asset Management Ltd. and Aberdeen Asset Management Plc are betting the Bank of Korea will lose the battle to stem the won's drop, thwarting its attempt to curb the fastest inflation in a decade. 

The won slid 7 percent against the dollar in August, the most in a decade, as price increases and a slowing economy prompted bond and stock funds to move money out of the country. Government currency purchases failed to halt the decline and led to a $16.7 billion drop in foreign-exchange reserves in the four months through July to $247.5 billion. 

The slump in reserves ``weakens the hand'' of the central bank, said Wee-Ming Ting, head of Asian fixed income in Singapore for Pictet, part of Switzerland's largest privately held bank for the wealthy. ``We are short the won,'' he said, referring to positions that profit from further declines. 

The drop surprised strategists, who forecast at the start of the year that the won would appreciate 5 percent to 890 per dollar, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 22 estimates. Instead, the currency slid to 1,088.9 last week, compared with the median fourth-quarter forecast of 1049. 

Consumer prices in Asia's fourth-largest economy climbed 5.9 percent in July from a year earlier, increasing pressure on the central bank to raise its benchmark rate from an eight-year high of 5.25 percent. Confidence among consumers in July was the lowest since 2000 and spending by households, saddled with record debt, fell in the second quarter for the first time in four years. 

Stock, Bond Sales 

International investors sold a record 25 trillion won ($23 billion) more Korean shares than they bought this year, stock exchange data shows, and the benchmark Kospi stock index fell 22 percent. 

Net sales of the nation's bonds totaled $4.2 billion in June and July, snapping a two-year run of monthly purchases, according to central bank figures. Benchmark five-year yields climbed 90 basis points, or 0.90 percentage points, in the past four months to 5.86 percent. 

Including dollar sales in the forwards market, the Bank of Korea has spent about $43.7 billion supporting the won this year, according to Richard Yetsenga, a strategist in Hong Kong with HSBC Holdings Plc. 

``We have been targeting 1,100,'' Yetsenga wrote in an Aug. 28 report. ``Now that we are in striking distance of that target, it is difficult to see what will stop the move there.'' 

Vice Finance Minister Kim Dong Soo pledged last week to take action to stem the won's depreciation and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts the government will have some success, forecasting an exchange rate of 1,040 in three months. 

`One-Way Bet' 

The won is ``not a one-way bet,'' said Goohoon Kwon, a Seoul-based economist with Goldman, the world's biggest securities firm. Policy makers could raise rates, helping attract funds seeking higher returns, he said. 

Aberdeen Asset, Scotland's largest independent money manager, is betting the Bank of Korea will fail, forecasting the won will be as weak as 1,200 per dollar in a year's time. 

``We have been short the won and are generally negative over the next three to six months,'' said Anthony Michael, who oversees the equivalent of $3.7 billion of Asian assets as the firm's regional head of fixed income in Singapore. ``Growth in Korea is going to slow substantially.'' 

The $970 billion economy expanded 4.8 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the slowest since the first three months of 2007, when it grew 4 percent. The trade balance swung to a deficit in December for the first time in five years. 

Overseas Borrowings 

An increase in South Korea's overseas borrowings is also driving funds out of the country, said Dwyfor Evans, a strategist with State Street Global Markets in Hong Kong. 

Short-term overseas debt, external borrowings that mature in a year, almost tripled to $175.65 billion as of June 30 from $65.9 billion at the end of 2005, official figures show. 

The increase was mainly caused by exporters' locking in dollar rates for overseas earnings, Bank of Korea Deputy Governor Rhee Gwang-Ju said in a July interview. This year's decline in Asian currencies doesn't signal a repeat of the financial crisis a decade ago because central banks have more reserves, he said. 

``Potential difficulties with rolling over the debt may lead to a sharp drawdown of reserves and pressure on the won,'' said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a strategist with CFC Seymour Ltd. in Hong Kong, who has the most bearish estimate in the survey. He predicts the won will end the year at 1,200 per dollar.

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## Slipstream

The s fall is good and bad, we've got the export market (uk) clicked their heels but for us expats the deal is pretty grim, unless you've got mega baht stashed away.
I've already made the low point of the  to be about 58-60 baht for comfort, anything over that is just a bonus.
The weak  will mean less tourists too, which some would say is a pretty good thing, depending on your situation  :Smile: 
Nothing is certain yet though so it's just wait and see time  :Wink:

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## mrsquirrel

> ^And falling further. Issue at hand for those interested in THB is that for every problem cited for Korea and the Won, Thailand has at least three!


Less than a two months ago they said that the second half of the year would see the Won increase due to exports for the christmas period. 

It was also in the Korea Herald last week that September isn't going to be as bad as August for the Won - not sure where they got their information from, but I don't believe it.

It took from 1998-2005 to get back to a decent level. When I was here in 2003 it was 2200 Won to a Pound. 

I've seen it in the last year or so go from 1600 up to 2100 and back down to 1880 in the space of days.

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## bkkandrew

Sterling drops to $1.80375 and THB61.88.

Bad day for the Brits in LoS.  :Sad:

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## Bobcock

Not at all, bit of a corker actually

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## bkkandrew

^Yes, smartypanyts, apart from Brits with a Euro-denominated income...

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## good2bhappy

starting to hurt!!!!!!!

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## johngal

in 1992 it was 32 baht and you got a lot more in pattaya for it then than now  :UK:

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## bkkandrew

Hope the THB falls fast, because Sterling continues its crash:

USD 1.786
THB 61.58

 :Sad:

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## Butterfly

interesting news for British citizens, maybe they should stop bitching why life is so expensive in Thailand,

BBC NEWS | Business | UK food prices rise 8.3% in 2008

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## bkkandrew

Still going down...

USD 1.7563
THB 60.55

Why can't Thailand hurry up with its crisis?  :Sad:

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## bkkandrew

*`Overvalued' Pound to Fall 20% as Darling Despairs (Update1)* 

By Lukanyo Mnyanda and Bo Nielsen

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Currency traders are starting to take the British government at its word, putting the tumbling pound on course for the worst year since 1992. 

The pound is about 20 percent too strong against the dollar, even after falling more than 10 percent this year, according to New York-based International Foreign Exchange Concepts Inc., the world's biggest currency hedge-fund company. Futures traders became more bearish on the U.K. currency than at any time in the past 16 years. 

The steepest housing slump in 18 years prompted Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling to tell Britons they face the biggest slowdown since World War II. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged for a fifth month last week to curb inflation that accelerated to 4.4 percent in July, more than twice the central bank's target. During the two previous times the economy cooled since 1997, the pound fell as much as 19 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

Continued here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...O_s&refer=home

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## ray23

The BOT is very busy today lost 25 satang immediatley and it appears to be still gaining strength. Certianly nothing politically or economically supports this

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## Jesus Jones

Invest in the french franc or the british gold soveriegn.  Thats you best bet.

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## panama hat

> Invest in the french franc or the british gold soveriegn.  Thats you best bet.



The French franc?  Jesus wept.

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## Ivor Biggun

> french franc


It doesn't exist does it ?

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## Chili Pepper

Since visiting here for 8 years or so, never seen fifties before  :Sad: 

59.48

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## DrAndy

> I hate being in the UK. At least my BKK flight departs in a couple of weeks.


 
fuck, I hope you are not on the same flight as me

I will look out for a tedious, boring looking bloke with a plastic laptop case

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## DrAndy

> Originally Posted by Jesus Jones
> 
> french franc
> 
> 
> It doesn't exist does it ?


 
I presume he means the Swiss Franc

but he may be living in the past with that nik

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## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> 
> I hate being in the UK. At least my BKK flight departs in a couple of weeks.
> 
> 
>  
> fuck, I hope you are not on the same flight as me
> 
> I will look out for a tedious, boring looking bloke with a plastic laptop case


I know you are so old all days mingle into one now, but note that my post was on the 14th August, two weeks hence would be the 28th and now we are on the 10th September, so I am happily ensconsed in BKK. No danger meeting me on the flight.

By the way - laptop? That's so 90's. (No - before you start - 1990's not 1890's)

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## DrAndy

oooh, so cutting

I don't know where this fallacy that I am old came from, Stroller I think originally propagated it

and then all the little followers and boring people picked it up and copied it

check your facts before you spout, you know it makes sense

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## bkkandrew

^I checked and you are 68.

Next?

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## Sir Burr

68 is the _new_ 58.

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## gjbkk

Foreign Exchange Rates as of 10 September 2008

 Country. . . . . .. . . . . Buying Rates . . . RatesSight Bill . . . . . Telex Transfer 

UNITED KINGDOM GBP - - 60.4620 - - - - - 60.6397 - - - - - - - - -61.3282

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## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by Begbie
> 
> Pound continues on down
> 
> 
> it's only down .145 in one day, no big deal, small panic, the usual. It could rebound any day, who the fuck knows, I wouldn't worry


Well, another outstanding prediction from Butterfly when the pound stood at 63 to the Baht.

By contrast my prediction here:

https://teakdoor.com/business-finance...tml#post681702 (Thailand's Baht, Peso --- Decline)

...of a collapsing pound now seems to be the case. Pound now stands at *50.09* to the Baht. See:

BBC NEWS | Business | Market Data | Currencies | Sterling v Thai Baht

I expect it to open south of that Friday, with further falls after new year.

The question on all Brits lips here must be 'when will the Baht collapse'?

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## ItsRobsLife

> The question all Brits lips here must be 'when will the Baht collapse'?


Fookin soon I hope.. otherwise I'm staying in Cambodia.  :Smile:

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## Spin

> The question all Brits lips here must be 'when will the Baht collapse'?


It probably is and its out of desperation more than any fundamental reason. The bottom line is that the UK has fucked up its own currency and now has the difficult task of improving it.
For all we take the piss out of Thailands governement, they have, and continue to be under reasonable control of their currency. For the time being, that is.
I tend to concentrate on US economics and even though I'm a Brit, never really pay much attention to whats going on in the uk and the state of the economy there. That is, until this week when i did a lot of background reading into the situation there. Things appear to be a lot worse than I had thought.

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> The question all Brits lips here must be 'when will the Baht collapse'?
> 
> 
> It probably is and its out of desperation more than any fundamental reason. The bottom line is that the UK has fucked up its own currency and now has the difficult task of improving it.
> For all we take the piss out of Thailands governement, they have, and continue to be under reasonable control of their currency. For the time being, that is.
> I tend to concentrate on US economics and even though I'm a Brit, never really pay much attention to whats going on in the uk and the state of the economy there. That is, until this week when i did a lot of background reading into the situation there. *Things appear to be a lot worse than I had thought*.


Well, I have been saying that for a while Spin.  :Smile: 

Anyway - you are quite right - THB decline will not happen as a result of Sterling's levels - I have said for some time that it will be a chase to the bottom against all the exporting SEA nations, when it is obvious that their primary export market (the US) is not going to be importing much any time soon. I am surprised since the Won's demise that this hasn't happened sooner.

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## EmperorTud

> 68 is the new 58.


48 is the _new_ 58.

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## mrsquirrel

two months or so ago I was down 45% on my salary from a year ago. Yesterday I was only down 12%

Pounds is buggered well and truly. It can stay buggered as well for the next few months.




> the Won's demise that this hasn't happened sooner.

----------


## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by Sir Burr
> 
> 68 is the new 58.
> 
> 
> 48 is the _new_ 58.


Indeed.

I read an article that I found funny before I left the UK. It was penned by Peter Obourne, but I cannot recall the publication. It was a satirical prediction essay for 2009. The recurring theme for each month was the pound reaching parity with:

(IIRC)

Jan- the Euro
Feb - the US Dollar

And by mid year (june I think) - The Albanian Lek!   :rofl:

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## robuzo

Thought I'd post this link for those of you dependent upon the UK pound:

Brad Setser: Follow the Money » Blog Archive » Trouble in Tokyo  and in London.
 (at the link)
"I will be curious to see if central banks continue to try  to maintain their allocation to pounds now. Portfolio balancing, remember, means  buying what is going down to keep its share of your portfolio constant. That  could provide a bit of support for the pound.

If not, watch out. As Lisa  Scott-Smith of Millennium Global Investments note (via Joanna Slater of the  WSJ)

The pound isnt a natural reserve currency in the way that the  dollar would be.

The fall in global reserve growth will cut into central  bank demand for pounds no matter what. Countries like India that have long had a  higher pound share are no longer adding to their reserves. Russia also liked the  pound and its reserves are falling. If other central banks dont buy pounds (and  sell other currencies) as the pound falls to maintain the pound share of their  portfolios, one big source of support for the pound will wither away.

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