#  >  > Living And Legal Affairs In Thailand >  >  > Thailand and Asia News >  >  > Business, Finance & Economics in Thailand >  >  If Only They Hadn't Sold!

## tomcat

...having already annuitized my pension, I just sat back and watched the excitement:*

This stock market hit rock bottom 10 years ago. Here's how much a $10,000 investment then would be worth today*
by Ian Salisbury (Money)


This Saturday is a big day for the stock market, as it marks the 10th anniversary of one of the longest and most profitable bull runs in history.
Indeed, an investor who put $1 into a market tracking index fund on March 9, 2009  the day the market hit what turned out to be its lowest point following the 2008 financial crisis  would have ended up with $4.99 by March 1, 2019, according to Morningstar. That means, $100 would net $499; $10,000 would be worth nearly $50,000, and $100,000 would be worth a cool half a million.

Barring a dramatic, unforeseen event like the 1987 stock market crash, the S&P 500 will have posted an average return of nearly 18%, _each year,_ over the past decade, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. To put that in context, the long-term historical average annual return, going back to the 1920s, is a hair above 10%.
Kicking yourself for not buying?

It may be hard to remember now, but back in 2009 most investors were actually terrified. In February 2009, President Obama signed a $787 billion stimulus package. Within months, both Chrysler and GM would go bankrupt. In October, unemployment would peak at 10%.

Statistics suggests that a decade ago most of us were selling rather than buying. Between the start of the financial crisis in 2008 and 2017, Americans pulled $830 billion _out_ of stock mutual funds on a net basis, while pouring nearly $1.4 trillion into less volatile bond funds. In other words, investors missed out on billions, if not trillions, in gains they might have reaped.
The real lesson of the stock markets incredible 10-year run is not to imagine the riches you could have had if youd bought an the precise right moment, fun as that might be.
Instead its to remember that, even in the darkest times, the market will eventually snap back. If you panic and sell, you could miss the upside.

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## baldrick

> President Obama


it was all his fault

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## TizMe

Just waiting for a Trumptard to show a graph of a 2 month period that surpasses another 2 month period under Obama.  :smiley laughing:

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## Texpat

Waiting for the tales-of-woe of O'Bobo sycophants who sold-up and moved abroad because the election of Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America, was going to spell economic ruin for the country.

Oh wait.

Nobody moved. The economy is soaring. 

MAGA.  :bananaman: 


And yes, Bobo was full of shit.

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## AntRobertson

Says the man that lives abroad and survives off government benefits.

 :smiley laughing:

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## HuangLao

Suckers....

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## uncle junior

yeah, and if i bought a different set of numbers last week i'd be a billionaire this week

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## tomcat

...^not quite the same thing, is it...a buy-and-hold stock strategy beats lottery guesses every time...

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## Dragonfly

> And yes, Bobo was full of shit.


indeed, he was a bit. But he was such an elegant SOB, and a great speaker

too bad he couldn't deliver shit and was ineffective in implementing his policies

great man, poor implementation of his ideas

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## uncle junior

> ...^not quite the same thing, is it...a buy-and-hold stock strategy beats lottery guesses every time...


same shoulda coulda woulda if you didn't hold and are looking back.....

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## SKkin

> Indeed, an investor who put $1 into a market tracking index fund on March 9, 2009  the day the market hit what turned out to be its lowest point following the 2008 financial crisis  would have ended up with $4.99 by March 1, 2019, according to Morningstar. That means, $100 would net $499; $10,000 would be worth nearly $50,000, and $100,000 would be worth a cool half a million.




Cool...so you'd have a lot more of something($) that's worth less than it was 10 years ago. As in $ devaluation. Plus the risks involved in playing in a rigged casino.

I'm impressed.


 ::chitown::

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## Texpat

> worth less than it was 10 years ago




Aside from fresh fruits and vegetables, what do you have that devalues at anywhere near 18% annually for 10 years running?

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## jabir

> ...^not quite the same thing, is it...a buy-and-hold stock strategy beats lottery guesses every time...


Yes, buy and hold, and if it's a solid stock but drops further then buy more, they're shaking the tree.

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## tomcat

> Yes, buy and hold, and if it's a solid stock but drops further then buy more


..."buy the dip" is another popular way to build wealth with stocks...I used both investing strategies successfully to grow the stock portion of my retirement portfolio...

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## Jack meoff

Don't waste any profits on rabbit food  pizzas  :Smile: 

Remember salad is alway on your side.

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## tomcat

> Don't waste any profits on rabbit food pizzas


...agree: always reinvest stock dividends (particularly in Total Return-type mutual funds)...the third leg of the investment stool...

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## Chittychangchang

The morning star?
Any good for lighting barbies..

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## fishlocker

Yes, remember '09 well. Watching each day as stock values were spiralling down. Fortunately for me I got my head around the game knowing damn well never to sell on the way down as those downturns were large and rapid. 

Locking in at a loss is never an option in my mind. But then you have the thoughts that over time your still up comparatively and something is better than nothing. It's a mind bender that many naturally, due to human nature and 
social conditioning, cash out.

I'm just glad I held on, though  it is very unnerving to see your life's saving get slashed in half or more.

Now I don’t know any of you folks but I hope you didn't sell 
at the bottom.  Or loose your job or your house. Many did as they like Lehman Brothers were way over leveraged. 

Now I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer but know that I like many people buy things, and subsequently owe more
than that object is worth. A new car on a loan, a home and so on. 

The dagger for many were the home equity lines of credit and the banks willingness to let folks dive in way over their heads. Quite the mess when you couldn't sell your home for even half what you owed on it. 

For many living beyond their means the only way out was bankruptcy and foreclosure. 

Now the banks owned all those foreclosed properties meaning that now they are on the hook for the property taxes, utilities and maintenance. With the shoe on the other foot it sucked to be them now. 

I could go on but you all know the story.  Stocks are up, real estate is hot and we are ready to do it all over again.

Happy anniversary. 


the fish.

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## Chittychangchang

It's a about time we had a new recession. ..

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## tomcat

> It's a about time we had a new recession. ..


...which, of course, will present a number of stock-buying opportunities...

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## uncle junior

> It's a about time we had a new recession. ..


potus is working on it

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## OhOh

> If you panic and sell, you could miss the upside


Or lose all if you own Lehman Brothers, FOE.




> The economy is soaring.


Based on future earnings or share buy backs bought with free money?




> buy-and-hold stock strategy beats lottery guesses


If you buy the correct shares vs buying the correct lottery number?




> you have that devalues at anywhere near 18% annually for 10 years running


Lehman Brothers shares, buggy whips manufacturers shares........




> Yes, buy and hold, and if it's a solid stock but drops further then buy more, they're shaking the tree.


Except Lehman Brothers.




> Stocks are up, real estate is hot and we are ready to do it all over again.


Stocks, real estate are up today? What are today's "valuations" true or false?




> will present a number of stock-buying opportunities


For every buyer and holder there is a seller and a speculator.

Tis a pity most households can't run to a 500 dollar/pound emergency without more on the credit card.

But as everybody here is saying, none of us have ever lost in the casino or stock market.  :Smile:

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## uncle junior

> For every buyer and holder there is a seller and a speculator.


must've missed that day in investment class

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## fishlocker

I bought Strong funds years ago. Turned out old Dick Strong got convicted of some sort of after hours scheme and things went to pot for him. I forgot the details but I didn't really make a lot off the holdings as I recall at the time the news broke. I jumped ship and never looked back.

Had some Harly Davidson, I should have rode that longer. 
Had some First Star bank. They were purchased by US Bank. I dont even look at it anymore though it's there.

The only time I really got burned was when I speculated on Sentry liquefied petroleum. They were buying mineral rights to mine in Australia as I recall. I got in early watched it rise untill they fell to their demise.  Lucky it was only fun money I was playing with. Water over the damn, Que Sera Sera. Win some loose some. At least I was in the game.

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## tomcat

> At least I was in the game


...and a game it was: not an investment strategy to secure future income...

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## fishlocker

Reminds me, I bought a pile of Kohl's department store stock at the IPO for 14usd per share. I was just a kid then but knew they were on the move then with the right team.

As they expanded across the nation the stock split four times and at one point was up to eighty usd per share.

Silly me, when I heard Amazon was thinking of offering clothing online with a no hassle return policy I sold the Kohl's. 

I was certain it was the smart thing to do, duh, as brick and mortar were soo yesterday. 

Well Jeff Bezos of Amazon swings a deal with the Kohl's team and they were off to the races again. 

I'm not complaining in the least. It's just another example that hindsight's 20/20. Or as my old man would say, It's 80/20.

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## tomcat

...^so, still no saving strategy: mere (poorly informed) speculation...

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## Texpat

> saving strategy


Saving is merely setting aside money for emergencies or future purchases. Investing is buying assets (stocks, bonds, mutual funds, real estate, art, watches, whisky, cars etc.) with the expectation that they will increase in value.

rookie error

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## tomcat

> Saving is merely setting aside money for emergencies or future purchases.


...tell me again: who's the president?... :rofl: ...

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## fishlocker

I'm up a buck thirty eight YTD in Value in one holding, so not bad in sixty eight days. That can change I know.  Value doubled on a few places I picked up from the poor bankers in 2010. One is a nice little three bedroom home in the city that I took great pride in as well as had fun for a summer while I lived in it part time while I remodeled it. Oh,as for dividends, yea, I could retire now on them but why. I'm not done playing the game....yet. It's too much fun but have thought about blasting off lately I will admit.

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## fishlocker

Now I'm no billionaire but this guy is. He is rather blunt and doesn't care what you think about him. And he lets you know it out front. I think that's what I like about this guy. 

Mods, This may not be the proper place for this sort of video. I don't think it hurts though as we are still in an easy money phase as far as lending goes. It is a bit long of a presentation but you can quit watching anytime you like. 

Oh shoot, I'm missing my Tony Robbins podcast. See ya......fish.

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## Dragonfly

> Saving is merely setting aside money for emergencies or future purchases. Investing is buying assets (stocks, bonds, mutual funds, real estate, art, watches, whisky, cars etc.) with the expectation that they will increase in value.
> 
> rookie error


very good point Tex, but 99% of people confuse the 2 and don't see the difference

in many ways, savings is investing too, that is investing in your future and emergency fund capabilities

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## fishlocker

> ...^so, still no saving strategy: mere (poorly informed) speculation...


I acted on the information that I had at the time. No insider information. Just the numbers. 
Sure going forward If they do well I'll be forever in the back of my mind compairing what I invested that into vs what they are retuning.  That's life. Hell I'm just giddy that I've averaged 2k a day for the last two and a third months. 
Not too bad for what Mr Pena would call a retarded bubble wrapped snowflake.  :Smile:

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## SKkin

Excuse me for not having been blessed with the love of "money."





> Aside from fresh fruits and vegetables, what do you have that devalues at anywhere near 18% annually for 10 years running?[/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR]



Respect for and trust in the establishment(all facets) of the society I was born into. Probably devalued at a much higher rate actually. 

Have an even lower opinion of this society's currency...the FRN.  Maybe Texpat can inform me which article of the US Constitution covers the Federal Reserve Note?

So as tomcat has informed us, if I had stayed in the "market" since 2009 I would have a bigger bog roll with which to wipe my ass.

https://danscollectiblesandmore.com/...UaAk0TEALw_wcB

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## Texpat

Nah, investing is a lifelong undertaking. I started in my early 20s and  still salt away a portion every month. Amounts don't matter in the  percentage game. Even poor people can invest if they're disciplined. As  for the US dollar -- it's just one of many vehicles in which investment  is stored. Baht is another. Gold is another. Real estate another. A  diverse portfolio is immune from destruction from the collapse of any  individual sector. Lets you sleep at night. It also means you're not  chasing the latest get-rich-quick scheme. If you live in Thailand it  makes sense to hold at least a portion of your investment there. If your  home currency and baht are near equal, fluctuations in currency  exchange are less dramatic because when you become poorer in one, you  become richer in the other -- by the same percentage -- it's a wash.

The  Constitution is a bit cryptic when it comes to money. Article I,  Section 8, says "Congress shall have Power ... to coin Money,  regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin." And Section 10  states, "no state … shall make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a  Tender in  Payment of Debts." Congress holds the power to regulate the value of  money and it's a federal level program -- not state level. If you don't  like the dollar or US prospects, you can invest in funds that are  completely outside the U.S. It's a piece of piss.

Money can't buy happiness, but it sure makes the misery easier to live with.

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## fishlocker

Here is one for Tommy. I sold. Yes I did. I was up a buck fourty at thirteen in two and a half so like a ship in bad weather I headed for port.
Warren Buffett said something about greed and fear. So on a whim I jumped ship.

Lo and behold the next day what I held would be worth another 20 bucks. We could have had that place in Madrid and still life goes on.

Today I'm out in the garage fixing stuff, mechanical pics to follow.

I'm jumping back in by the X date to get the dividends. At least that is certain. 

What ever happened to that Blowtanicus dude? Did he buy gold after all? 

Oh well, down twenty in a day. Courage man the hurt cannot be much, nor wide as a river nor deep as a well.


As for me tomorrow I hope I don't fall off my bicycle.


the fish.

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## tomcat

> wide as a river nor deep as a well.


...here's the quote you want:  '*tis not so deep as a well nor so wide as a church-door...R&J...*

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## bowie

Simplistic – diversification.

The experts have been trying to time the markets since they came into existence, if they can’t do it, what makes you think you can? Problem is the markets are emotional – logic and reason play a much lesser part than a humans fickle optimism and/or pessimism. If this weren’t the case – the market could be timed and timed correctly. Level playing field – no winners or losers. 

I played the markets with mad money for a decade or so. Due diligence is a most time-consuming event. Either/or, regardless of my analysis, I lost some won some and never really lost money and never really gained money. A few winners offset the few losers, most were break even flatlines – But, when you factor in trading costs, capital gains taxes, fees, etc. and not even including the cost of my “time” – I lost. 

Meanwhile, I put 10-15% of my salary into brokerage managed tax deferred and tax-free retirement accounts, and then “ignored” them. These developed into a most adequate nest egg for me and spouse to live off. Golden Rule – money is for saving, not spending.

Anyway, hindsight analysis of the “financial crisis” you know the good old 2008 recession, my holdings fell for a period of 16 months, a period of steady decline and 25% losses (I was well-diversified) the markets fell more (@ 50% depending upon the yardstick used). 

Now, when it turned around it took six months for me to regain my “nest egg”. No harm, no foul, no impact (for me). Yet, I had a few friends that fell into the panic selling mode – some lost a ton, had one who sold close to the low and bought a very costly “annuity” – saying he’ll never have to worry about his money again. Without doing a real analysis, just going by the figures he gave me – he lost 75-80% of his “nest egg”.

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## tomcat

> I put 10-15% of my salary into brokerage managed tax deferred and tax-free retirement accounts


..bingo...

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## fishlocker

Tommy Tommy Tommy. Ok I'll tell you what you want to hear and something you already know. Things don't grow overnight. It takes years, decades even to see things into maturity. Someday I'll write a book though as time marches on I feel I don't need the royalties or kudos from the mothers down the road ect. Get a Tony Robbins feel good about ones self book for that. 

How do you not fall into the trap one may ask. Discipline, it's that simple. No Starbucks, no Mickiie D's, no sensationalism, no straying from the path, just constant saving that 5, 10, 15 or 20% if you can.

I had a boost. My mom before she died, I was nine at the time, taught us about saving for that inevitable rainy day. My grandmother, rest her soul, lived through the great depression and so I have some of that in my backpack. My pa always said "son, if you want to eat you have to work." So I left with that under my arm. Their  half assed smiles and their book of rules.

My pop not being all that bad bought me a two hundred dollar car and told me to hit the road when I turned eighteen. The rest is history. 

As for missing out on the two bucks Friday I'd say I'm no longer the gambler I once was. 

I took the buck fourtyfive Thursday vs the buck sixtyfive it would have been on Friday. Shit, I could have bought more land in LOS. Ha Ha.


I'm gonna write a book someday. Well at least a map to where I buried ..... well never mind.

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## fishlocker



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## tomcat

> It takes years, decades even to see things into maturity


...I was fairly surprised when, at a point in the 90s, investments in my after-tax retirement fund began earning more than yearly contributions from my Gulf salary...that continued for a number of years until I eventually annuitized just before the big stock downturn...maturity of fund investments played a small role, but diversification played a larger one...

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## fishlocker

Having had my thumb in a few pies you could call me Tom.

We used to play who could reach the SSI max first so as to not pay anymore tax. I'd love to win that about a dozen more times.

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## jabir

Buy when they're selling and sell when they're buying. - not sure who but makes sense

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## fishlocker

Warren Buffett. The div is close to nine so That's in the bank if I live a few more months. 

No real reason to have sold though. I just wanted to lock in the gains at 13% and chill a bit. A lot of unanswered questions still on the table. 

I do like NIE ( The Chinese Tesla) and various poted plant people. I'm telling you get in now if you have a buck to spare.

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## fishlocker

NIO.  Sorry.

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## fishlocker

I figure it at 4usd after the class action suit.

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## fishlocker

Call me a sucker butttt. I jumped back in only after what I sold had dived. You knew it had to. Made a kick in the pants off the bonds though I could not sit by the wayside and take a chance on a loss so smelling like the fish I walked out like a rose.  Yea bonds may be heading down as interest rates rise per the smooch. Triump talks smack again with his new nominees, so yes back in the game betting on staples.

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## fishlocker

The book will be out next April.

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