#  >  > Living And Legal Affairs In Thailand >  >  > Thailand and Asia News >  >  > Business, Finance & Economics in Thailand >  >  I don't understand.

## jandajoy

Why is the baht staying relatively strong and all other currencies are drowning?

Live  rates at 2008.10.07 05:41:22 UTC   Notice: 
The THB rate  shown below is the international rate. 
Rates used within Thailand may  vary.   

*1.00 AUD* *= * *24.9514 THB*

  Australia Dollars    Thailand Baht   1 AUD = 24.9514 THB   
1 THB = 0.0400779 AUD

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## Thetyim

A very good question and one that has me mystified and drinking more water

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## jandajoy

Seriously. There's a world financial crisis, and the shit's hit the fan but the Thai baht remains strong. I know nothing about economics, mores the pity, and I'd really like to know peoples views on this. :Confused:

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## The Gentleman Scamp

All I know is that a grand UK used to be 74,000 baht back in '04, and now it's just under 60k baht.  :Sad:

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## jandajoy

^ quite, but why is the baht gaining over all other currencies when there's a world crisis and riots in the streets of BKK.

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## lom

Is there really a world crisis?
At the moment it looks more like an American - European crisis.

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## Agent_Smith

Could be because there is less reliance on Europe/America for trade and more on neighboring countries whose economies are relatively strong.

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## jandajoy

EU finance chiefs in crisis talks 
*European Union finance ministers are to meet in Luxembourg for emergency  talks on the world's financial meltdown.*  
The ministers from all 27 member states hope to bolster money markets after a  day of panic saw huge share index losses in Germany, France and the UK.  
A $700bn (£398bn) US bank bail-out and moves by several EU states to help  their banks have not quelled fears.  
Asian markets were volatile on Tuesday as investors worried global government  action may not resolve the crisis.  
Japan's Nikkei index plunged more than 5% - shattering the psychological  10,000-point barrier for the first time in nearly five years - before bouncing  back.  
Australia's financial market suffered before the country's central bank cut  its official interest rate by 1%, prompting a rally. It was the largest cut for  16 years by the Reserve Bank of Australia.  
Share prices in China, Taiwan and South Korea also saw a turbulent morning's  trading. 
Earlier on Wall Street, the Dow Jones index fell 8% before regaining some of  its losses. President George W Bush said it would take some time for the rescue  plan to restore confidence to the financial system.  
*'Apocalyptic tone'*  
EU leaders earlier issued a joint statement saying they will take the  necessary measures to protect both Europe's banking system and individual  depositors.  
In Luxembourg, the EU finance ministers aim to frame guidelines for  guaranteeing public savings, correspondents say.  


*There's a mess in Europe too, because European  banks were also seduced over the preceding few years into lending too much too  cheaply to consumers and businesses* 
Robert Peston  
BBC business editor  

  Since late last week, Ireland, Germany, Greece, Austria and Denmark have  declared separately that money held by ailing banks will be safe.  
Analysts say the move has angered fellow EU member states who fear it could  prompt savers to transfer their money into guaranteed institutions.  
Luxembourg's Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said no major financial  institution would be allowed to fail.  
Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, added: "We will  continue to provide monetary markets with all the liquidity they need for as  long as it is necessary."  
But Europe's fragmented response to the crisis so far has done little to  reassure investors, correspondents say.  
The strains threatening the continent's economies have been felt most acutely  in Iceland, where PM Gier Haarde made a national address warning his country it  faced national bankruptcy.  
The BBC's Ray Furlong in Reykjavik said the tone was, at times, apocalyptic.  
In a late-night session, parliament passed emergency legislation to shore up  the country's banking system after the national currency, the krona, fell 30%  against the euro on Monday.  
*IMF warning*  
Across Europe, central banks have already offered more than $74bn in  short-term loans to banks in an attempt to make cash available.  

  But while the idea of a European fund to rescue troubled banks has been  floated, it has attracted too little support to go any further, says the BBC's  economics correspondent Andrew Walker in Washington.  
He also says the financial crisis will come under the microscope at the  International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington in the next week.  
Its analysts will say the global economy has been sandbagged by high  commodity prices, the housing slump and the growing financial crisis.  
IMF economists have already warned of an increased risk of a severe and  protracted economic downturn.  
On Tuesday a banking reform bill is due to go before the UK parliament while  German lawmakers are scheduled to hold an emergency session.  
*Congress hearings*  
In the US, both Mr Bush and Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the US Federal  Reserve, are scheduled to speak later about the crisis.  
Meanwhile, Congress began hearings into the cause of the financial meltdown  that triggered the rescue plan.  
Richard Fuld, the head of collapsed US investment bank Lehman Brothers, said  federal regulators knew his firm had, like others, been caught up in a financial  tsunami emanating from the mortgage markets.  
The day after Lehman filed for bankruptcy, the government bailed out the  insurance giant AIG, saying it was too big to fail. AIG executives are also  testifying.  
The FBI is looking at Lehman, AIG and US mortgage giants Fannie Mae and  Freddie Mac as part of a probe into possible corporate fraud.  
Meanwhile US utility companies reported a record rise in the number of  customers defaulting on their gas and electricity bills.  
The largest increase in power cut-offs were in the states of Michigan (22%)  and New York (17%), although rises were also reported in Pennsylvania, Florida  and California. 

 Story from BBC  NEWS:
BBC NEWS | Business | EU finance chiefs in crisis talks

Published:  2008/10/07 05:37:22 GMT

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## mediamanbkk

I believe the government is propping up the baht

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## jandajoy

How does it do that? 
Sorry, but I really know nothing about these things.  :Sad:

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## buriramboy

^It buys baht on the international currency markets, or alternatively sells its reserves of $'s, Euros etc.

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## jandajoy

Ok, I understand that. Must have a lot of reserves then.

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## mrsquirrel

> Is there really a world crisis? At the moment it looks more like an American - European crisis.


Utter toss, Won is fucked, fucked, fucked...30% down this year.

They have the 6th largest reserve of dollars as well, going to be interesting times out here. The financial people are running around telling people that it isn't going to be another 1997 but nobody believes them.

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## lom

> Utter toss, Won is fucked, fucked, fucked...30% down this year.


I did a quick check on the won, it doesn't look like that currency has ever been stable  :Smile:

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## mrsquirrel

^ True.

Taiwanese dollar is not bad though

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## jandajoy

*Market closes higher on rates decision*

 Posted 1 hour 42 minutes ago  
 The Australian share market has rebounded from earlier losses  after the Reserve Bank's surprise move on interest rates.
 The ASX 200 closed 1.7 per cent higher at 4,619, after diving more than 3 per  cent in early trade.
 The All Ordinaries index gained 53 points to 4,598.
 About 4:30pm AEDT, the Australian dollar was trading at 72.33 US cents.

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## jandajoy

Print Email Add to My Stories
*Reserve Bank slashes rates*

 Posted 3 hours 54 minutes ago  
Updated 1 hour 9 minutes ago 
  Unions and politicians have called on the  retail banks to pass on the reduction in full. (ABC News: Michael Janda, file  photo)

*Video: * Rates to drop another 1 percentage point: expert (ABC News) *Video: * RBA cuts rates by 1 percentage point (ABC  News) *Related  Link:* RBA governor's statement

 The Reserve Bank of Australia has surprised financial markets by  slashing interest rates by one percentage point because of the severe  international financial conditions.
 Most economists had been predicting a cut of 50 basis points.
 Today's cut is the first official one-percentage point move since 1994, when  rates increased.
 The last time rates were cut by one percentage point was 16 years ago in May  1992.
 The shock announcement by the Reserve Bank has sparked a rebound on the local  share market.
 Stocks dived more than 3 per cent earlier, but shortly before the close of  trade the ASX 200 was up nearly 2 per cent to 4,628.
 The All Ordinaries index has gained 60 points to 4,605.
 The decision has boosted the banks, with Westpac reversing earlier losses to  gain more than 4 per cent. Westpac has announced it will pass on a 0.8 per cent  cut to borrowers. 
 The Australian dollar is trading at 72.43 US cents. 

*'Turn for the worse'*

  In its accompanying statement, the Reserve Bank says conditions in  international financial markets took a significant turn for the worse in  September, and there is evidence of slowing economic growth in Australia's  trading partners in Asia. 
 It says there is now the risk that Australian economic demand and output  could be significantly weaker than it had earlier expected. 
 It notes banks are facing higher costs, and says the unusually large movement  in the cash rate is needed in order to bring about a significant reduction in  the interest rates they charge.
 JP Morgan analyst Helen Kevans says the RBA reduced rates by more than  expected, knowing the banks are unlikely to pass the full cut to borrowers.
 "The RBA is wanting to prompt a material drop in costs for borrowers," she  said.
 "So hopefully borrowers with mortgages will see some decline in mortgages  rates from the domestic banks. 
 "I think that is probably the main reason that the RBA did cut interest rates  so drastically today."
 Ms Kevans also says another rate cut is likely before Christmas.
 "We'll definitely see a follow up cut in November," she said.
 "It depends what happens in financial markets between now and then as to how  drastic that cut is. 
 "But we're likely to see at least 25 basis points in November."

*Pressure on banks*

  The pressure is now on the big banks to pass on at least some of the 1 per  cent rate cut.
 ACTU president Sharan Burrow says Australia's big banks are making enough  profit to pass on the full reduction.
 "If it's not possible because of the cost of credit, then it's fair enough  that we would ask for the evidence to make it transparent in terms of the cost  of credit," she said.
 "And to see that there is some benchmark by which those banks will guarantee  that at that point, they will pass on the money."
 Meanwhile, a Melbourne Anglican Bishop Philip Huggins says bank executives  have a moral obligation to pass on as much of the rate cut as possible.
 "The obligation, the onus of proof is on them. That's the moral principle,"  he said.
 "They have to honour that by showing, be transparent about why it is  difficult for them to pass on that full cut in interest rates, because otherwise  it would appear to be a deceit."

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## Travelmate

Australia $ 25.6323 25.7148 26.1927

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## Thormaturge

Apparently Iceland is on the verge of bankruptcy.  Their currency has lost half its value this year and is heading towards becoming worthless.  

Thailand has been using its dollar reserves to hold the Baht up.  Just means there will be a sudden drop when the money runs out.  Yet another reason to keep money in foreign currency.

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## jandajoy

> ust means there will be a sudden drop when the money runs out.


How long do you think they've got to go?

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## Travelmate

^ usually the day after you have made a significant transfer.

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## jandajoy

^ :Smile:  Yes..... :Sad:  :Sad:  :Sad:

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## 3737ipod

> Apparently Iceland is on the verge of bankruptcy. Their currency has lost half its value this year and is heading towards becoming worthless. 
> 
> Thailand has been using its dollar reserves to hold the Baht up. Just means there will be a sudden drop when the money runs out. Yet another reason to keep money in foreign currency.


   I THINK YOU ARE RIGHT,THEY DONT WANT TO SEE THE BAHT WEAK,LOSS OF FACE TO OTHER COUNTRIES IN ASIA,THEY CANT KEEP IT STRONG FOREVER SO WHEN IT GOES IT WILL CRASH LIKE BEFORE,I AM LOSING ABOUT 30.000 BAHT A MONTH ON MY SALARY BUT I WILL TAKE THAT AND WAIT FOR THE BAHT TO CRASH.HOPE IT COMES SOON!. :UK:

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## jandajoy

Yes, let's hope it happens soon. Preferably before Christmas or Santa's going to get sacked.

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## Butterfly

THB is still strong because when there is problem at home, investors look elsewhere, and keep bankrolling export countries like Thailand, and China

Vietnam is in a much worse shape than Thailand,

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## Thormaturge

> Originally Posted by Thormaturge
> 
> ust means there will be a sudden drop when the money runs out.
> 
> 
> How long do you think they've got to go?


Far too many variables to say anything for sure but the leakage will escalate as the reserves run down and speculation picks up.  I can't imagine the Baht holding up for more than a few months without speculators jumping in and draining the bank.

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## Nawty

How is Zimbabwe doing ??

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## Thormaturge

^
More millionaires per head of population than anywhere on Earth.

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## jandajoy

Live  rates at 2008.10.07 10 :05: 22 UTC   Notice: The Zimbabwe  government redenominated the ZWD on August 1, 2008 at a rate of 10,000,000,000  old ZWD to 1 new ZWD. No new currency code has been issued, but the old ZWD  currency remains legal tender until December 31, 2008. More info  (PDF) *1.00 AUD*

*=*

*41.1808 ZWD*

  Australia Dollars    Zimbabwe Dollars   1 AUD = 41.1808 ZWD   1 ZWD = 0.0242832 AUD

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## keda

> ^ quite, but why is the baht gaining over all other currencies when there's a world crisis and riots in the streets of BKK.


Whatever happens in Europe and the US, Thailand's future is secure as long as it stays poor and welcoming.  :Wink:

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## jandajoy

> Thailand's future is secure as long as it stays poor and welcoming.


Is that what a " sufficiency economy" is?

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## Texpat

The USD is much better against most currencies than it was several months ago.

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## Nawty

Amelikans....go down again in hirtory for this time being responsible for a worldwide recession...if not depression.

I told everyone China should have brought the god forsaken lot a long time ago.

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## jandajoy

> I told everyone China should have brought the god forsaken lot a long time ago.


What's that then?

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## Sir Burr

Errrrm.....he means the USA.
China is holding a lot of the US debt.

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## jandajoy

Interesting concept. China buys USA. The Arabs have already bought the UK. Who's next.

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## Texpat

China owns Australia's natural resources and is moving in on Africa.

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## DaffyDuck

Because the other currencies are dropping faster than the Baht can.

Simple.

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## mrsquirrel

> Apparently Iceland is on the verge of bankruptcy. Their currency has lost half its value this year and is heading towards becoming worthless.  Thailand has been using its dollar reserves to hold the Baht up. Just means there will be a sudden drop when the money runs out. Yet another reason to keep money in foreign currency.


Apparantely Icelandic Banks something or other that was in the UK has stopped allowing it's customers to withdraw or transfer money. 300,000 people are wondering what is going to happen to their funds.'


What I keep wondering is this.

If for example HBOS/Lloyds do bust - government steps in and covers my funds. Where exactly do my funds go since the bloody bank is bust. Do I have to go get a new bank accoount somewhere else or do they turn up at my house with my 50 grand limit and say here you go?

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## Butterfly

> If for example HBOS/Lloyds do bust - government steps in and covers my funds.


They will not go bust, when the government takes over, operation is still the same, just that management is under the government authority

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## benlovesnuk

today is the is the first time ive been to the bank and have seen an exchange of 59 badt to the GBP..................
I thought a bit of violence and government shake would have made this better...

To boot, the pound is weak against the dollar, so where i could have made it back on two exchanges (ie if i had a 2dollar to one pound, then changing in big notes, acheiving 68 badt to the pound) but even this is to shayite because its about 1gbp to 1.79 us.

bloody bloody mess!

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## jandajoy

Damn right. I've decided to put everything on hold in the hope that the baht crashes at some point.   :Sad:

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## benlovesnuk

put it like this i have been for a while stuck in limbo of exchanging money, missing the boat of exchanging a stronger pound into dollars ie ( by then converting nicely into badt to make a 68 badt exchange) about 4 months ago! and also when there was a much stronger badt then now at 65 to gbp, (however still not that good - i remember thinking ill just wait until it hits 66 dooohhh!) a month or two ago!

I really hope the bottom falls out of either the dollar to the pound, or the badt to the pound, otherwise babies going to be born in a barn, and there aint going to be any wise men bringing expensive gifts or for that matter doc's or nurses(okay maybe its not that bad) but still, it aint good!

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## jandajoy

I got lucky and transferred some money when the Aussie $ hit 30. Live of that now 'till things calm down. No bloody house buying though.   :Sad:

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## Blake7

The BOT wants the baht weak as exports suffer if baht is too strong. It is struggle they are losing.
Too much capital flooding into Thailand which makes Baht strong.

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## jandajoy

> Too much capital flooding into Thailand which makes Baht strong.


Where's it coming from?

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## jandajoy

What needs to happen for the Baht to crash?

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## good2bhappy

People start to sell baht and get out

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## jandajoy

XE.com - UCC Error


Live  rates at 2008.10.10 0322 UTC   Notice: 
The THB rate  shown below is the international rate. Rates used within Thailand may  vary.   

*1.00 AUD*  =  *22.9042 THB*

  Australia Dollars    Thailand Baht   1 AUD = 22.9042 THB   1 THB = 0.0436600 AUD

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## jandajoy

Live  rates at 2008.10.10 0322 UTC   Notice: The THB rate  shown below is the international rate. Rates used within Thailand may  vary.   

*1.00 USD*

*=*

*34.4624 THB*

  United States Dollars    Thailand Baht   1 USD = 34.4624 THB   1 THB = 0.0290171 USD

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## good2bhappy

Aus economy is not sounding good, being talked down by all these wankalists.
I still feel the fundementals are sound it is just a matter of confidence and the banks are fucked and won't lend money.

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## Jardine

Thanks for asking the question jandajoy, it has been confusing me for ages. I was confindently predicting the baht would crash last Christmas and it still hasn't gone. It's completely killing me at the moment. If it keeps on like this I might even have to consider a move back to Edgebaston/Ladywood. Persish the though!

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## jandajoy

> Edgebaston/Ladywood.


God, no. Anything but that.    :Sad:

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## jandajoy

So somebody explain in simple words "What the fuck is going on?"  Please.

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## benlovesnuk

Interestingly though only by my observation at the bank, the dollar has been stable and a lot more consistent then i would say most other currencies over a period of 6 months or more (of course i can understand the obvious reasons behind this)! Dipping only by a few badt,however in comparison it seems that the pound has been enjoying a rather frenzied roller coaster, which is currently on a long plunge down like the pepsi max in black pool.


I hope for a speedy recovery something of say 68-69 otherwise, well otherwise i'll be really skint......... :Confused: !

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## jandajoy

The Aus dollar seems to be in free fall against the baht

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## Scandinavian

Same with the Swedish Krona vs THB, lost a lot the last 2-3 weeks.

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## jandajoy

> So somebody explain in simple words "What the fuck is going on?"  Please.


Anyone know or is it all just flatulence?

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## benlovesnuk

In the hope that it has ridden out so long and so low, that in the upturn it really rockets as for me this would be ideal if the pound hit 70 badt on the up.........

i think however wishful thinking

quick get dorothy.................................

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## panama hat

> Originally Posted by jandajoy
> 
> 
> So somebody explain in simple words "What the fuck is going on?"  Please.
> 
> 
> Anyone know or is it all just flatulence?


One can only surmise that the BoT is, against logic, propping up the baht.  If this is the case then they will suffer a kickback situation when reserves get low . . . and look like the Zimbo Dung

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## jandajoy

Soon I hope.

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## jandajoy

What time scale does any one care to predict?

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## benlovesnuk

I predict when hell freezes over, hell being america and freeze means recession!!!!!!!

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## Loy Toy

Gold, and its all got to do with gold.

Remember in 1997 when the ruling government come out and pleaded with everyone to pledge their gold and for the sake of Thailand.

Does anyone realize how much gold was donated?

Fuckin heaps and they spending it all now and to protect the baht,

The Aussie dollar has been fucked by investors hedging cheap local bank loans against capital purchases off shore. Again they didn't expect everyone would cash in so early and repay their principle.

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## jandajoy

> Does anyone realize how much gold was donated?  Fuckin heaps and they spending it all now and to protect the baht,


How much?

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## jandajoy

So it's all still madness and chaos, and I still don't understand. Sorry. 

So the US and Europe bail out the banks and everything. 

Thailands baht stays  strong cos they're buying baht with 12 billion dollars of gold. 

The Aussie dollar is still fckd. Doesn't Australia have any fokin gold?

 :Confused:  :Confused:

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## keda

they mine the stuff, then sell it!

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## jandajoy

Bastards.  :Smile: 

It's all mad. I seem to remember banks posting major profits in the last 6 months or so. I really am confused and I think I need a drink.   :Smile:

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## Spiderman2008

hi. i'm thai, 
in my opinion, from tom yum gong crisis 1997, thailand full with cheap lands, cheap buildings, cheap factories, cheap banks etc. then american and european buy everything here (and cheap stocks too). it's mean USD is in thailand from 1997-2007 very very much. now 2008 subprime crisis USA and Euro need money then they sell everything they have in thailand to get money back to help their homeland, USD flow out from thailand then in early 2008 you will see 34-36 BTH/USD because less USD in Thailand make USD stronger and now they sold stocks out already around 50% inhands. when 4thQ 2008 - early 2009 come, stocks in their hands will be sold all but can't save banks then no one trust in USD and they don't have money to buy much things USD will be weak, we will see 28-32 BTH/USD. 80 years ago USA set new money system for the world by print money(USD) without anything to support USD (such gold), combodian in border area sold out USD to keep BTH now, china start to request asia money for selling products.

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## Spiderman2008

news from Bloomberg ==>> Australia, New Zealand Dollars Fall as Stocks, Commodities Drop

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## Jesus Jones

The banks will put out false claim that gold is dropping in price, the german banks were notorious for this.  Basically the banks are shyting themsleves because there isn't much value in paper anymore, not at the moment and not for the near future anyway.  Gold for 1000's of years has held it's own.   Silver is also a very good investment at the moment too.

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## tsicar

> hi. i'm thai,


you back again, prick?
thought you were still waiting for porice to cum close down the "pervert forum" :kma:

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## jandajoy

*Spiderman2008

Anybody worked out who this is?
*

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## Spiderman2008

> Originally Posted by Spiderman2008
> 
> 
> hi. i'm thai, 
> 
> 
> you back again, prick?
> thought you were still waiting for porice to cum close down the "pervert forum"


sure , i were still waiting. i printed that "pervert forum" in pdf file to police, to RS promotion co., and to poor victim's parents. not kidding, not joke, it's fact.

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## jandajoy

> sure , i were still waiting. i printed that "pervert forum" in pdf file to police, to RS promotion co., and to poor victim's parents. not kidding, not joke, it's fact.


You're a very odd chap aren't you?

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## thehighlander959

Hope that you sent the file to "porice" in better Engrish than you communicate on here. You seem like a bit of a donkey spiderman " where u flom?" :rofl:

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## jandajoy

> sure , i were still waiting. i printed that "pervert forum" in pdf file to police, to RS promotion co., and to poor victim's parents. not kidding, not joke, it's fact.


That'll be why DD's gone into hiding and all the Mods are keeping really low profiles. I suspected as much. They feel their guilt.

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## tsicar

> Originally Posted by tsicar
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  i printed that "pervert forum" in pdf file to police, to RS promotion co., and to poor victim's parents. not kidding, not joke, it's fact.


so how about posting the email adress of the "poor victims"' families on the forum: i am sure there are many members here who would like to send them sympathy emails, too.
btw, how did YOU get their adresses?

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## jandajoy

> and to poor victim's parents.


He's a caring kinda guy. 

Bless him. 

Please share, Spider. 

We all want to help.

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## Thetyim

> sure , i were still waiting. i printed that "pervert forum" in pdf file to police,


I hope this doesn't come as a shock to you but pdf file has got nothing to do with pedofiles

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## jandajoy

WHAT !!!!!! 

I just assumed. Bugger.   :Smile:  :Smile:  :Smile:

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## panama hat

> Originally Posted by tsicar
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by Spiderman2008
> ...




 :rofl:   Come on . . . this is too good . . . CMN?  KW?

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## jandajoy

Where's Spiderman gone?

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## andyirish57

> Originally Posted by Thormaturge
> 
> ust means there will be a sudden drop when the money runs out.
> 
> 
> How long do you think they've got to go?


How long is a piece of string :sexy:

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## MUSTY

JJ .  Back on track now.  Yes, no one really knows. But if the Thai Baht is like a tank of petrol, it should be running on empty just after Christmas, say.... first quarter.  Factories putting off workers, first quarter orders being held off.
Political and violent unrest, crap holiday season as everyone in the middle can now not afford or justs wants to hold off tripping off for what ever reason.
Suddenly the Thai country needs the outside world, they look around and there is no one left playing in the sand pit.  Hop into the elevator, ground floor - Thai Baht. Come one come all.

Australian dollar between 22 and 24 baht - testing the boundaries set by U.S.
U.S. showing us that the worse is yet to come.  Ford and G.M now worth only 81 billion - compared to honda and toyota in Japan.

Don't need to hear the recession word, you just need to hear that Thai currency is running out of petrol.  If anyone has a spare $20 k , hold onto it, cash rules.

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## TSR2

There was a recent report showing growth in the immediate Thai economy, this must affect the positive Baht exchange rate,  I don,t believe that report and the ridiculas Thai politician who recently assured viewers that Thailand was immune to the world crisis !!  Thailand is an exporter nation so the economic wallop will hit it soon then we may see benefits

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