#  >  > Living And Legal Affairs In Thailand >  >  > Thailand and Asia News >  >  > Business, Finance & Economics in Thailand >  >  GBP exchange rate. Very poor.

## Luckydog

Why is the rate going down and down? It's under 66bht to the Pound now!  :Sad:

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## AntRobertson

I don't pretend to know much about all this currency fluctuation stuff but I do know it sucks.  I'm paid in GBP.  :Sad:

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## Loombucket

> Why is the rate going down and down? It's under 66bht to the Pound now


You will be lucky to see 62 Bht to the GBP at the mo. It's been up and down like a fiddlers elbow for a couple of months. This time, last year, I was getting 71. Like so much in life, everything depends on everything else. I believe that it has something to do with the American dollar rate, as many exchange rates are calculated using USD as a base. More than a little alarming though.

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## Sir Burr

It's because of the UK deficit (it's big) and the expected housing slump (it's started) due to the sub-prime lending fiasco that is over-spilling from the US. This means that economic growth forecasts are having to be down-graded.

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## Begbie

The pound is in as bad shape as the dollar. This from a brief article on the BBC website, but it says it all.

*Sterling under pressure*  

While the battle continues over the Chinese currency, US tourists visiting London might get some relief in 2008. 
The chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, Simon Derrick, says the situation is looking ominous for the pound.   
To him the UK trade deficit looks alarming and he calculates that, for the size of the population, it's actually worse than America's. 
Add to that a weakening housing market and further cuts in interest rates and sterling could in for a sharp fall this year.

BBC NEWS | Business | 2008 - the return of the dollar?
........................


Yes the sky is falling. Hopefully for those of us paid in dollars there's only one way to go and that's up.

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## Thormaturge

The reason for the decline of Sterling is more likely to be Alistair Darling's pre-Budget statement in November.

His change to the tax status of non-domiciled taxpayers will penalise most foreigners in the UK apart from the super-wealthy.  There is an enormous incentive (and a consequent rush) to get money out of the UK.  It is breathtaking and there is no doubt that a significant number of very wealthy people now consider that living in the UK is no longer beneficial to them.

I'd consider buying Dollars right now.

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## Spin

64.42 for tt into Thailand today.

The lowering is due to the expectation that interest rates will have to be reduced to prevent recession ala good ol US of A.

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## bkkandrew

> The reason for the decline of Sterling is more likely to be Alistair Darling's pre-Budget statement in November.
> 
> His change to the tax status of non-domiciled taxpayers will penalise most foreigners in the UK apart from the super-wealthy. There is an enormous incentive (and a consequent rush) to get money out of the UK. It is breathtaking and there is no doubt that a significant number of very wealthy people now consider that living in the UK is no longer beneficial to them.
> 
> I'd consider buying Dollars right now.


I wouldn't do that. Last figures for US trade deficit (November) was an 14-month high. This is despite the slump in value of the USD during the past two years.

Cite:

US trade deficit surged in November

Also, trouble brewing on the balance of payments deficit, with Moodys of the opinion that US Givt. debt is not as rock-solid an investment as one might assume.

Cite:

FT.com / Home UK / UK - US's triple-A credit rating 'under threat'

All in all, the one currency (other than Sterling) to avoid would be the greenback!

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## Bluecat

Well, you should have joined the Euro zone... :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

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## Thormaturge

> 64.42 for tt into Thailand today.
> 
> The lowering is due to the expectation that interest rates will have to be reduced to prevent recession ala good ol US of A.


Lowering of interest rates would be nothing compared with the thousands of millions of pounds currently being sucked out of the UK.  For one thing the UK may well be forced to raise interest rates to try and get the money back.  That will only serve to do more damage to the UK housing market. 

I wouldn't want to be holding Sterling in late March if the current budget proposals are in the final announcement.  Euro would be safer. Frankly anything but Sterling right now.

Of course, Gordon Brown may well be giving Alistair Darling a good whelping before then.  This isn't the only aspect of the 2008 Budget that he's made a mess of.

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## Sir Burr

[quote=Thormaturge;501310]


> the thousands of millions of pounds


Billions?

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## Thormaturge

Yep.  The budget was targetted at tax advantages which are currently enjoyed by foreign millionaires, many of whom pay no UK tax at all.

There is a bright idea to hit them for a new GBP 30,000 tax bill (each) if they don't agree to pay regular taxes like everyone else.

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## Marmite the Dog

> Of course, Gordon Brown may well be giving Alistair Darling a good whelping before then. This isn't the only aspect of the 2008 Budget that he's made a mess of.


The Tories will be back in before too long, so that should sort a few things out.

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## baldrick

> Well, you should have joined the Euro zone...


not the xenophobic pommy gits - they haven't even got a unified currency across the whole of the stinky isles

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## Property

> Why is the rate going down and down? It's under 66bht to the Pound now!


The UK is heading for a recession.  :Sad: 




> Originally Posted by Thormaturge
> 
> Of course, Gordon Brown may well be giving Alistair Darling a good whelping before then. This isn't the only aspect of the 2008 Budget that he's made a mess of.
> 
> 
> The Tories will be back in before too long, so that should sort a few things out.


The shadow cabinet look as if they are in a _sorting out_ mood.

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## Texpat

Welcome to the club.  USD at 33.  :Sad:

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## bkkandrew

> Welcome to the club. USD at 33.


^ and will probably bottom out at 29...

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## Bluecat

Geez, you can predict the bottom, you must be very rich... :goldcup:

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## Thormaturge

> The Tories will be back in before too long, so that should sort a few things out.


Another decade of the last Conservative government and the UK housing market would have been owned by the richest 5&#37; or so of the population, with the rest of us as their tenants. That was their clear intention and they were providing substantial tax breaks to the wealthy to help them snap repossessed properties up.

Seems the present goverment are set to have a go at reaching the same goal, only later, by accident.

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## Sir Burr

^
Don't agree. The Tories under Margerat Thatcher encouraged home ownership, thus putting up council houses for sale at affordable prices.

Don't blame the Tories, blame the free-market.

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## bkkandrew

> Geez, you can predict the bottom, you must be very rich...


And your point is?

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## English Noodles

> Geez, you can predict the bottom, you must be very rich...


He never said he could predict Anything, not the use of the word 'probably' in his post. 

This is the problem here, selective reading or in this case, reading but not being able to understand what has been writen.

Noodles.

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## barbaro

> Originally Posted by Texpat
> 
> 
> Welcome to the club. USD at 33. 
> 
> 
> ^ and will probably bottom out at 29...


I check the USD/Baht ratio everyday, and the US dollar is still slipping.  

30.7
30.5
30.2

Now at 29.x

And still slipping.


What we think is irrelevant at this point.  

We'll wait and see.

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## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by bkkandrew
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by Texpat
> ...


It is slipping. I was referring tothe onshore rate, aka BOT, Link:

Foreign Exchange Rates

Rate this weekend 33.178

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## Thormaturge

> ^
> Don't agree. The Tories under Margerat Thatcher encouraged home ownership, thus putting up council houses for sale at affordable prices.
> 
> Don't blame the Tories, blame the free-market.


In the final couple of years under the Conservatives there was a scheme under which the wealthy could invest in large housing corporations which were acquiring repossessed properties.  These schemes provided a guaranteed exit route so no money was risked at all and the investors received 40% tax relief.  Basically you invested GBP 100,000 and the goverment gave you GBP 40,000.  If you cashed in the investment you got the full GBP 100,000 back.  In other words a 40% subsidy for wealthy people to buy houses off the poor, and let them ouit again to those very same people.  The scale of it was breathtaking.

Take this a step further and consider that these schemes were being marketed and promoted by banks and mortgage companies and you see that they had an incentive to foreclose at the earliest possible moment.

Some might consider that the money could best have been spent provinding at least temporary assistance for people who were suffering the extraordinarily high interest rates on their mortgages.

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## Spin

If I could find a way to put 80&#37; of my cash into a Chinese bank right now I would. Their currency looks safe to rise at least 20% over the next couple of years.

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## Thormaturge

I'm beginning to understand why people put money under mattresses.

If anyone wants to put their money under mine they are welcome.

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## Fabian

Euro still at 48 Baht onshore, that's not too bad.

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## bkkandrew

> If I could find a way to put 80% of my cash into a Chinese bank right now I would. Their currency looks safe to rise at least 20% over the next couple of years.


Call this idea radical, but why not go to HK and open an Yuan account?

If you are scared of flying/agraphobic/chinese phobic, I believe you can do this by phone from Thailand with a counterparty bank, such as HSBC...

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## Spin

^ I looked into it before, the interest rates were crap and work permits for mainland China were needed etc etc!

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## Bluecat

> Originally Posted by Bluecat
> 
> Geez, you can predict the bottom, you must be very rich...
> 
> 
> He never said he could predict Anything, not the use of the word 'probably' in his post. 
> 
> This is the problem here, selective reading or in this case, reading but not being able to understand what has been writen.
> 
> Noodles.


Ok, so I make a probable prediction also.
The Thai baht will bottom up at the level it was for years, baht 25/US$.

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## bkkandrew

> ^ I looked into it before, the interest rates were crap and work permits for mainland China were needed etc etc!


See:

LEAD: H.K. to launch personal Chinese yuan banking services | Asian Economic News | Find Articles at BNET.com

I thought you wanted to capitalise on the forex appriciation, rather than worry about rates...?

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## bkkandrew

> Originally Posted by English Noodles
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by Bluecat
> ...


You may be right, but I think that anything more that 29.x would be too ruinous to the Thai economy. Many export sectors have said that they are loss-making below 35...

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## Bluecat

They were thriving when it was 25. One of the tiger economy... :Wink:

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## bkkandrew

> They were thriving when it was 25. One of the tiger economy...


That was BC (Before China)

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## Bluecat

Indeed.
Worrisome to say the least.
I mean for Thai economy and people living here...

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## John

> Why is the rate going down and down? It's under 66bht to the Pound now!


I do not see too much logic in currency movements - mostly. There are speculators and insiders (or both) making a lot of money. What had the slump of the GBP to do with anything when Soros brought it down? Just with speculation. What has the high gold price to do with anything? What goes up goes up until it falls again (like the stock prices not so long ago). The physical gold is not important anymore - just the speculative price. Same is true for oil. 

The sad story is that most of these speculators sit in GB and USA and do not hesitate at all to bring economies down to make their profit. Behind them of course people in the government of those countries. It is a big business and if you know that the currency market has no regulation at all it is paradise for the speculation mafia. All this supported by the media. Germany had not so long ago a jobless rate of 13 percent (the Euro seems to be only Germany - better not talk about other countries in the media). The US one of about 5 percent. The jobless rate in the US was shocking - at least so reported in the media... New Zealand and Australia have a huge trade deficit - no word in the media. It is speculators, politicians and media working together... To me it is the biggest fraud organization in the world with a huge amount of money/profit involved - nothing more. And it is more than time that the world starts to see it like this and breaks this mafia up. Speculation with insider knowledge (and they have) is a crime.

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## John

> If I could find a way to put 80% of my cash into a Chinese bank right now I would. Their currency looks safe to rise at least 20% over the next couple of years.


This is no problem. Check out oanda.com or eversbank.com. There are many others. The downside is that for yuan deposits you do not get any interest payments. In addition to this it depends what base currency you have. For USD it might be a safer bet than for Euros. But to me the main question is how much fear are you ready to take for greed???

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## Zavier38

might have something to do with the £50 000 000 000 (yes, fifty BILLION) that that the UK gov has had to lend Northern Rock to prevent a run on UK banks. 

Works out at around £7000 for every man, woman and child alive in the UK. 

I'd rather have spent another £7k I haven't got on something useful like booze, ho's and scuba diving. Sadly Gordon Brown made the decision for us and so looks like we're gonna have to stay in UK and play at being poor untill we get a decent government that can unravel 10 years of economic mis-management.

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## DaveRobin

> might have something to do with the £50 000 000 000 (yes, fifty BILLION) that that the UK gov has had to lend Northern Rock to prevent a run on UK banks. 
> 
> Works out at around £7000 for every man, woman and child alive in the UK. 
> 
> I'd rather have spent another £7k I haven't got on something useful like booze, ho's and scuba diving. Sadly Gordon Brown made the decision for us and so looks like we're gonna have to stay in UK and play at being poor untill we get a decent government that can unravel 10 years of economic mis-management.


well, the bonuses for those brokers who sold sub-prime (junk) mortgages has to be paid by someone - it's not going to be Morgan Stanley, is it

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## The Gentleman Scamp

> It's because of the UK deficit (it's big) and *the expected housing slump* (it's started) due to the sub-prime lending fiasco that is over-spilling from the US. This means that economic growth forecasts are having to be down-graded.


Every cloud has a silver lining.

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## Happyman

I dont have or deal in large lumps of money but exist on 3 pensions ( 2 occupational and the UK O.A.P.)
Very rarely I transfer sterling to a Thai account from my offshore bank in I.O.M. The rate is absolutely shit!.
Without doubt the best way - for me - is to use my UK Debit card and draw cash as and when I need it from a Thai ATM.
Never can understand it but the rate in baht that i get doing this is always 1- 1.5 baht per pound better than the daily published rates - i.e Oanda etc !
Any ideas why ? :Smile:

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## Thormaturge

Nope but I do the same.  also I feel safer keeping money in a UK bank than a Thai one for some inexplicable reason.

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## Sir Burr

> I dont have or deal in large lumps of money but exist on 3 pensions ( 2 occupational and the UK O.A.P.)
> Very rarely I transfer sterling to a Thai account from my offshore bank in I.O.M. The rate is absolutely shit!.
> Without doubt the best way - for me - is to use my UK Debit card and draw cash as and when I need it from a Thai ATM.
> Never can understand it but the rate in baht that i get doing this is always 1- 1.5 baht per pound better than the daily published rates - i.e Oanda etc !
> Any ideas why ?


Because Oanda is the offshore rate. What you get in Thailand is the onshore rate.
Or, simply look at it this way. Thai Baht is more valuable in Thailand than in the UK.

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## Happyman

> Originally Posted by Happyman
> 
> 
> I dont have or deal in large lumps of money but exist on 3 pensions ( 2 occupational and the UK O.A.P.)
> Very rarely I transfer sterling to a Thai account from my offshore bank in I.O.M. The rate is absolutely shit!.
> Without doubt the best way - for me - is to use my UK Debit card and draw cash as and when I need it from a Thai ATM.
> Never can understand it but the rate in baht that i get doing this is always 1- 1.5 baht per pound better than the daily published rates - i.e Oanda etc !
> Any ideas why ?
> 
> ...



Right! Thanks !



 :tumbs:

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## Bobcock

Ant

You should try getting paid in USD !!!

Despite a 20% pay rise last year, I am still paid 10% less in THB terms than I was 2 years ago.

64.97 at Bangkok Bank at the moment.

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## AntRobertson

^ Yes but you get paid approx. 40x more than me so swings-and-roundabouts.  Which reminds me...

I'll be in BKK early next week, ask your wife now if you can go out and buy a poor GBP paid individual some drinks (although I'm not sure at this stage if it's just a day trip or not).

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## codefreeze

Mid market rates today for GBP were:

*1.00 GBP* *=* *60.5422 THB*

Ouch, that hurts. 

There's a really weird situation in the UK with the economic indicators. Officially inflation is at 2.1% but people's everyday experience is at odds with that. It feels like inflation is really more like 5-10%. British Gas are just about to put their prices up (again) by 15%, petrol costs more, train fares have gone up. SW Trains just put "slightly off peak" fares up by 20%! Food is also more expensive.

In other words it feels like inflation should be officially higher - and therefore interest rates should be following - but actually interest rates are coming down! It's bizarre. 

It does look like interest rates will come down (which I wasn't expecting) - and that will mean a weaker pound as people pull out investment and seek a bank with a higher interest rate. 

The most likely outcome now, given the weird things going on in the UK, is a further deterioration of the pound against the baht. Not what I was hoping for or expecting. Oh well. But I'm not sure anyone can predict rates with any certainty in this climate.

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## Sir Burr

The official inflation rate doesn't include the price of oil.

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## bkkandrew

> The official inflation rate doesn't include the price of oil.


...Or pretty much anything that people actually buy! :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

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## Thormaturge

It works much better if you merely consider inflation to be some abstract figure the government uses to calculate annual social security and pension uprating with a view to keeping the poor, well, poor.

The rest of the population have to be given the illusion of wealth which gets taken away in large chunks about once every ten  years.

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## Zavier38

What is included in the inflation figures? In UK....

Food's up 10%+
Oil up 20%
Council tax up 20%
Gas, electricity up 15%

things that are cheaper

DVD players
Microwave ovens
Hookers (amazing, but true, the credit crunch means that £60 - £80 goes a lot further than it used to in jmy very limited experience of these things)
er, that's it

For the first time ever I'm gonna give Thailand a miss and crash out in Malaysia to get a few days' sun next to a pool, and just pass thru for a meeting overnight - the only decent hotel I've ever found in Pattaya (Sheraton) wants 10K baht/night - with £/60b give or take it makes a week in LOS look bloody expensive. 

Is Pattaya busy? Or have they priced themselves out the market?

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## Thormaturge

You will find this interesting reading.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/elmr/04..._Wingfield.pdf

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## crabfat

I have 2 pensions from the UK that I live on and I am getting a little nervous at the moment.
I transferred &#163;300 from my UK account in the IOM on Monday stating that I would pay the charges at this end and I got a rate of 59.74496. Last Thursday I took 10,000 baht out and got the rate of 62.9723 plus &#163;2.35 in bank charges.
No more bank transfers for me for a while

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## Sir Burr

Was the money sent from the IOM in sterling, or baht?

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## crabfat

I specified sterling and I have been doing it since last June but the first two they sent were in Baht and they basically said tough, you didn't tell us to transfer sterling.
Actually I did but only over the phone so there is no proof.
From next month I will use my ATM card at &#163;2.75 per 10,000 baht which is somewhere around &#163;150 to &#163;160 depending on the daily rate.

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## Thetyim

Is this a bank or some other financial body ?

Can you tell us which one ?

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## BigRed

If you have a Nationwide account they do not charge fees for withdrawal abroad and also use the interbank transfer rate so you get a rate midway between the buy and sell figures. It's the best deal in the UK.

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## Sir Burr

True, but, you must open the account in person within the UK.

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## BigRed

^ indeed, that's probably true of most bank accounts in these days of money laundering legislation.

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## BigRed

Nationwide are used by many UK people to send money to the families in Thailand. Just open a standard account with no overdraft facility then post the card to the family in LOS. Destroy the signature strip if you like so that it can't be used without a pin, then text the pin to the family. 

It can be difficult persuading them to open a standard account, but if you fail to provide them with all the credit check details they will suggest it.

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## codefreeze

> What is included in the inflation figures? In UK....
> 
> Food's up 10%+
> Oil up 20%
> Council tax up 20%
> Gas, electricity up 15%
> 
> things that are cheaper
> 
> ...


 
Nice one. Yes inflation seems to be way beyond the "2.1%" the government quotes. The situation with utilities right now is nothing short of a rip-off - worse than the pensions rip-off in my opinion. The utility companies are strangely quiet about the fact that the oil price has dropped to $89 and is heading lower.




> For the first time ever I'm gonna give Thailand a miss and crash out in Malaysia to get a few days' sun next to a pool, and just pass thru for a meeting overnight - the only decent hotel I've ever found in Pattaya (Sheraton) wants 10K baht/night - with £/60b give or take it makes a week in LOS look bloody expensive. 
> 
> Is Pattaya busy? Or have they priced themselves out the market?


I was surprised I actually found Malaysia to be cheaper than Thailand. Thailand has got very pricey in my opinion. Hotels I was staying in a few years ago for £30 a night are now charging three times that.

I really enjoyed Malaysia - a lot of the benefits of thailand without many of the hassles - getting around seemed a lot easier and English is very widely spoken.

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## Mister Fixit

> Originally Posted by Bluecat
> 
> Well, you should have joined the Euro zone...
> 
> 
> not the xenophobic pommy gits - they haven't even got a *unified currency across the whole of the stinky isles*


Uh?  I thought it was called the pound sterling ...  When did it change?

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