#  >  > Living And Legal Affairs In Thailand >  >  > Thailand and Asia News >  >  > Business, Finance & Economics in Thailand >  >  World Economic Outlook Poll

## Hampsha

What is your opinion on the state of the world economy at the moment. Do you see things as getting better or worse from here. Where do you see the most growth likely to be? Is the future Asia? Is the western world on decline? Share your thoughts. You can vote for more than one choice. Sorry if the choices don't reflect what you require. Just write out your thoughts. Also I'd like to know what you think of Thailand's future as well.

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## spliff

Let the Chicago boy's loose on the entire world!

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## BaitongBoy

^ Or the Vienna Boys' Choir...

 :mid:

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## Hampsha

Not so bad in the poll so far. It looks like there still is a future for me.


Thailand doesn't seem like its going through hard times at the moment. What's to stop it from seeing a lot more growth as the world economy improves. If Thaksin's influence comes back there might be a lot more new ideas from him to stimulate the economy.

On the US, my father who still works in his 70's said he's noticed a slight improvement lately in real estate in the carolinas.

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## blue

There still is lots of  quantitative easing money swilling about so   lots more inflation to come.
Also when USA QE2 ends next month what  effect will that have ?
wont with a big buyer of government debt -the QE money -no longer buying, 
mean that the interest rates have to rise to attract buyers, ie the governments borrowing gets more expensive ?

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## Hampsha

Prices for a lot of things seem to be going up all the time here in Thailand. Just bought coffee filters at Lotus. Now they are 80 baht. I remember them at 55 baht not too long ago. Maybe it's the fuel prices for imports. Things just don't seem cheap. Beer chang used to be 3 bottles for 100 baht. Now, where I am its about 120 baht.

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## Hampsha

Not too good on the US stock market yesterday.

Some stories..


U.S. Stocks Fall on Slow Recovery, Greece - Bloomberg

Euro-Dollar Puts Reach Highest Level in Year as Greece Bailout Talks Stall - Bloomberg



Jim Rogers on ratings, spending and the US situation.

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## BaitongBoy

Time to invest in cupcakes...
Sounds crazy, but Jim Rogers said so...

 :mid:

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## Hampsha

Couple more clips...

Slightly serious overly comical





Another one from Jim Rogers, an Asian expat, strong words...

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## Hampsha

Marc Faber

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## jamescollister

Went back to OZ for Xmas with the wife and kids, could not believe the prices of food etc. People are hurting and if China cuts back buying where will the money come from to pay welfare to the poor. Poor in OZ now is less than 70 grand a year if you have kids. Troubled times a coming. Jim

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## Hampsha

But the political leaders and financial leaders of all the countries don't seem to be suffering much from the current economic situation. Most seem to be making money.

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## jamescollister

> But the political leaders and financial leaders of all the countries don't seem to be suffering much from the current economic situation. Most seem to be making money.


 I blame it all on the Russians, when the fear of people turning commie was there Governments and the powerful gave just enough to keep the people content. Now the threat has gone and we can get back to the new nobility. Those who rule and those who serve. Jim

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## Periphiral Vision

I very selfish, I just want more Baht for my Pound, that is all I care about and all these money men and Politicians can go and suck a dick.

I like watching Kaiser on RT, but I think he is a little mental.  I think it will be at least 3 years before things get better, we have 0.5 intrest rates, growing inflation, no confidence, it's a freaking mess all brought about by the AMERICAN FINANCIAL TERRORISTS who should all be locked up.

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## Lorenzo

The West is fucked

Check these two reads on the US state of jobs and economy.  Pissing tax money away on ungrateful lowlife - domestic and foreign is no success plan. 

Why the Jobs Situation Is Worse Than It Looks - US News and World Report


America's Fading Exceptionalism - US News and World Report

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## Hampsha

Both those are by the same author. His points about unemployment don't seem like new information. I think the part-time jobs idea started way back when the McJobs term was used. Things are certainly bad anyways. I kind of think that a lot of middle-aged people down to the graduates don't really know what a good job is. I'd also add that they have been hearing the idea that they will never earn as much as their parents for a long time. Mainstream media on both sides pushed the success stories especially the wildly successful ones. The average working American is living a much much simpler life struggling to get by.





> I like watching Kaiser on RT, but I think he is a little mental.


It's a comical show. I thought he was just a comedian but he does get into some serious financial news at times.

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## Butterfly

> Why the Jobs Situation Is Worse Than It Looks - US News and World Report
> 
> 
> America's Fading Exceptionalism - US News and World Report


when you had 8 years with a president who was ass raping the American public with his "laissez faire" approach to economics, it's going to take a lot of effort to recover everything for the middle class

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## Hampsha

It's much bigger than any president. We live in a very different world.

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## Lorenzo

Remarkable Bell Curve you have going

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## Hampsha

Rich world economy prospects darken: Reuters poll - Yahoo! News

June 15



> LONDON (Reuters)  The rich-world's economic prospects have darkened slightly, a Reuters poll of economists showed, with new signs of a slowdown in the United States compounding fears about the poor fiscal health of Western economies.
> Since last month's regular survey of around 250 analysts in May, recent events have only underlined the increasingly disjointed nature of the global economic recovery.
> While China and India took new steps to calm fervent and inflationary economic expansions, Western powers have been preoccupied with attempts to defuse fiscal time-bombs in Greece and possibly the United States against a backdrop of tepid growth.
> Economists in Wednesday's poll took an axe to the outlook for U.S. economic growth following a raft of dire jobs and industrial data this month, while keeping their long-held view for weak euro zone and UK growth until the end of next year.
> Only the Japan saw an upgraded outlook in the latest poll thanks to reconstruction efforts that have gained pace since the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.
> "Two key downside risks have increased over the past few months -- the risk of a disruptive default in Greece and of a significant slowdown in the U.S.," said Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Re in New York, in a research note.
> He expressed hope the U.S. slowdown may be nearing an end, since oil prices are no longer rising and the supply bottlenecks caused by the Japanese disasters should be resolved later in the year.
> Still, financial markets have already reacted to the slowdown taking place. World stock indexes have shed much of the gains made since the start of the year, while U.S. Treasury bond yields have fallen.
> The consensus forecast for U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product was slashed to an annualized 2.5 percent from 3.3 percent in last month's poll, following a weak 1.8 percent rate of growth recorded in the first quarter.
> ...


 

========================

Another one...




> Poll Shows Investors Think Global Economy Has Stabilized - Video - Bloomberg
> 
> Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Three out of five global investors say the world economy has weathered the financial crisis and has stabilized two years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., according to a global quarterly poll of 1,408 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers. Separately, the U.S. fell behind emerging markets in Brazil, China and India as the preferred place to invest, though the worlds largest economy still ranks highest of all major developed countries, according to the poll. Bloomberg's Jon Erlichman and Deidre Bolton report.


 

==================
and another...

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## Neo

Paragraphs are always useful if your going to cut and paste, I'm sure the info is interesting, but looking at a block of text is hard work. Cheers.

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## socal

> Not so bad in the poll so far. It looks like there still is a future for me.
> 
> 
> Thailand doesn't seem like its going through hard times at the moment. What's to stop it from seeing a lot more growth as the world economy improves. If Thaksin's influence comes back there might be a lot more new ideas from him to stimulate the economy.
> 
> On the US, my father who still works in his 70's said he's noticed a slight improvement lately in real estate in the carolinas.


The last option is misleading because the US has already defaulted via inflation. The Federal reserve owns more US treasuries then anyone else. They have been monetizing debt because they dont have enough real buyers.

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## socal

> There still is lots of  quantitative easing money swilling about so   lots more inflation to come.
> Also when USA QE2 ends next month what  effect will that have ?
> wont with a big buyer of government debt -the QE money -no longer buying, 
> mean that the interest rates have to rise to attract buyers, ie the governments borrowing gets more expensive ?


Thats what should happen in a normal market but they will print until the system blows up. They are already talking about QE 3. They will possibly call it interest rate caps which is QE

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## socal

> Originally Posted by Lorenzo
> 
> Why the Jobs Situation Is Worse Than It Looks - US News and World Report
> 
> 
> America's Fading Exceptionalism - US News and World Report
> 
> 
> when you had 8 years with a president who was ass raping the American public with his "laissez faire" approach to economics, it's going to take a lot of effort to recover everything for the middle class


fuck you it was "laissez fair", it was anything but.

The Fed was setting interest rates, not the market. Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac where government entities assuming all the risk in mortagges, not the market.

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## Hampsha

Would a reverse split on the US dollar be possible?

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## Hampsha

June swoon: Economy added almost no jobs last month | The Lookout - Yahoo! News



> The economy added so few jobs last month that the government calls the employment situation "essentially unchanged" from May. The news comes as a shock, after recent positive signs had led economists to predict a solid rise, and starkly underlines the trend set in other recent economic numbers: The recovery is struggling for any traction at all.
> 
> Payrolls increased by just 18,000 in June, the Labor Department said in its monthly jobs report, released this morning. That's even fewer than May's anemic total, which in today's report was revised from 54,000 down to 25,000.
> Economists had expected that June would see a modest bounce back, with most forecasting yesterday that the report would show a gain of between 90,000 and 125,000 jobs.
> 
> The overall unemployment figure ticked up slightly to 9.2 percent, from 9.1 percent. There are now 14.1 million Americans officially counted as unemployed. Millions more are out of work but don't show up in the numbers, after they'd grown discouraged and stopped looking for a job.
> As in May, the loss of government jobs was the key factor in the anemic performance. The number of public-sector jobs declined by 39,000, amid cuts by local and state governments. And the private-sector produced just 57,000 jobs. A survey of private employers released yesterday had found 157,000 new private-sector jobs, raising optimism that today's numbers would be far higher.


 
Just when I thought the US was turning around. Will it be up again Monday? Just feel hopeless about the US.

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## Mr Lick

I feel that a big crash may be imminent. The Italians today had a crisis meeting unnerving market investors. Bank shares down in the UK after a recent resurgence following promises over the Greek problems by the IMF and EU.

Energy firms in the UK raising prices by a staggering 17/18% next month after a recent rise of 7%

It beggars belief that things could have worsened since 2008 but governments appeared to behaving, until quite recently that is, as though things were progressing nicely. Nothing quite like reassurring the general public i suppose whilst trying to shore up massive leaks behind closed doors.

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## Hampsha

> Energy firms in the UK raising prices by a staggering 17/18% next month after a recent rise of 7%


Interesting, is there a link for this?

===================


*Warren Buffet Bets heavily against Double Dip*


Billionaire Warren Buffet said he is wagering on continued economic expansion and doesnt expect a second recession. 
I would bet very heavily against that, Buffett told Bloomberg Televisions Betty Liu on the In the Loop program today after data showed slowing U.S. job growth. How fast the recovery will come, I dont know. I see nothing that indicates any kind of a double dip. 

Full story at Bloomberg...

Buffett Bets 




=========

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## crippen

British Gas Price Update 

British Gas has today announced a price increase on domestic gas and electricity bills from 18 August. Gas bills will rise by an average of 18% and electricity bills by an average of 16%, adding an extra £190 a year for an average dual fuel customer. 

Gas and electricity price changes - electricity prices and gas prices history      ... :mid:

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## harrybarracuda

> British Gas Price Update 
> 
> British Gas has today announced a price increase on domestic gas and electricity bills from 18 August. Gas bills will rise by an average of 18% and electricity bills by an average of 16%, adding an extra £190 a year for an average dual fuel customer. 
> 
> Gas and electricity price changes - electricity prices and gas prices history      ...


Privatising it seems such a fucking brilliant idea now, doesn't it?

"If you see Sid, tell him!................ gas prices are going to go through the fucking roof!".

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## socal

> Energy firms in the UK raising prices by a staggering 17/18% next month after a recent rise of 7%
> 			
> 		
> 
> Interesting, is there a link for this?
> 
> ===================
> 
> 
> ...


Warren Buffet is a good operator but he knows very little about macro economics. Birkshire Hathway would have been bankrupt if there was no bailouts in 2008. That says enough.....Dont look for advice from him if you want to know when the next bust will be.

Get advice from people that always get it right.

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## BaitongBoy

> Get advice from people that always get it right.


Any suggestions?

 :Smile:

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## Butterfly

> Warren Buffet is a good operator but he knows very little about macro economics.


 :rofl:

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## Mid

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> Warren Buffet is a good operator but he knows very little about macro economics.


X 2  :Smile:

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## socal

> Originally Posted by Butterfly
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by socal
> ...


Warren Buffet would have been bankrupt if there was no bailouts in 2008, Warren Buffet would have been bankrupt if there where no bailouts in 2008, Warren Buffet would have........ :France:

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## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> Get advice from people that always get it right.
> 
> 
> Any suggestions?


Anyone that is an Austrian economist. These guys dont guess.

Max Kieser, Peter Schiff and Damon Vickers. Youtube any of them before 2008, they all knew it was going to happen and listen to them now. 

This was in September of 2007 btw

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## Butterfly

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> Get advice from people that always get it right.
> 
> 
> Any suggestions?


yes, anyone who is not an Austrian economist or someone named socal  :Smile:

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## baldrick

will there be QE3 ?

Obama is pushing hard for large public infrastructure projects again to improve employment

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## bsnub

Anyone that uses RT as a real news source should be anally violated.

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## BaitongBoy

^You think buggery is in order in this instance?...

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## bsnub

Sorry I don't speak limey. So shove those limes up your tight british wanker ass. Fucking morons will believe what they will...

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## The Bold Rodney

> Privatising it seems such a fucking brilliant idea now, doesn't it?


It did when they offered the moronic voters in the UK the chance of a few free shares (simply a bribe to appease public opinion) then sold off industries which the moronic voters already owned in the first place!

Not to mention promises of lower and fairer pricing for the consumer due to privatisation, nothing more than fucking con trick and greed wasn't the sole property of the politicians the UK voters were greedy too (human nature).




> "If you see Sid, tell him!................ gas prices are going to go through the fucking roof!".


"arry" If you happen tp meet Sid tell him he's fucking lying robbing wanker and he can stick his gas up his arse and preferably light it at the same time.

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## The Bold Rodney

> Sorry I don't speak limey. So shove those LIMES up your tight ass.


Fixed that for you and it wasn't difficult to get right! 




> Fucking morons will believe what they will


They sure will and you're living proof of that for sure!  :smiley laughing:

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## Hampsha

*Consumers borrowed more for 8th month in May*

Consumers borrowed more in May and increased credit use for only 2nd time in nearly 3 years 





> WASHINGTON (AP) -- Americans took on more debt in May and used their credit cards more for only the second time in nearly three years. Consumers stepped up their borrowing just as the economy began to slump and hiring slowed.
> 
> The Federal Reserve said Friday that consumer borrowing rose $5.1 billion in May, the eighth straight monthly increase. It followed a revised gain of $5.7 billion in April. Borrowing in the category that covers credit cards increased, as did borrowing in the category for auto and student loans.
> 
> The overall increase pushed consumer borrowing to a seasonally adjusted annual level of $2.43 trillion in May. That was just 1.7 percent higher than the nearly four-year low of $2.39 trillion hit in September.
> 
> Borrowing is a sign of confidence in the economy. Consumers tend to take on more debt when they feel wealthier. That boosts consumer spending. Ultimately, it gives businesses more faith to expand and hire. But an increase in credit card debt can also be a sign of people falling on harder times.
> 
> The economy added just 18,000 jobs in June, the fewest in nine months, the Labor Department said Friday. It was the second straight month of feeble job growth. The unemployment rate rose to 9.2 percent, the highest rate of the year.
> ...


Consumers borrowed more for 8th month in May - Yahoo! Finance

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## bsnub

> Originally Posted by bsnub
> 
> Fucking morons will believe what they will
> 
> 
> They sure will and you're living proof of that for sure!


Well I am not the dipshit that takes Russia Today as a real news source. Go fist yourself dumb fuck.

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## BaitongBoy

^ A nasty little fwit, ain't he....

Buggery is nothing to be ashamed of, bsnub...you can tell us about fisting your gaping self...with impunity...or pineapples...take your pick... :Smile: 

No offence, little wanker...there you go...

 :Smile:

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## socal

> will there be QE3 ?
> 
> Obama is pushing hard for large public infrastructure projects again to improve employment


There is already perpetual QE because the Feds balance sheet is so big. The Fed buys more debt with the money they make on interest. 2 trillion+, do the ponzi math.

Will there be officially another QE ? I would put the odds at 100% but they will call it something else.  "interest rate caps" is what they might call it.

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## socal

> Would a reverse split on the US dollar be possible?


Yeah it basically already happened, but the price of everything has just not doubled yet....yet.(for people holding dollars :Smile: )

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## The Bold Rodney

> Well I am not the dipshit that takes Russia Today as a real news source.


WTF are you ranting about now? russia today WTF has that got to do with you posting like a moron?  :UK: 





> Go fist yourself dumb fuck.


Definitely showing your intelligence level now (very low) however I'll pass on your suggestion and let you and your b/f continue fisting each other without me! :UK: 

Funniest childish rant I've had the pleasure to read for a very long time!  :smiley laughing:

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## baldrick

> for people holding dollars


all the FX talking heads are telling us the USD will make a big rebound - I have bet on CAD as I changed my pay currency because the USD has be fcukin useless ove the last 12 months

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## Hampsha

Things sure don't look good at the moment in the markets. Where is this all going and how fast?   Could Socal be right? 



*"Shares in Asia have fallen as investors reflected fears in Europe that the region's debt crisis could spread to Italy and Spain."*

BBC News - Stock markets fall on fears eurozone debts may spread

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## Hampsha

Great video of Warren Buffet on CNBC chatting.

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## Lancelot

> Things sure don't look good at the moment in the markets. Where is this all going and how fast? Could Socal be right?


There will be continued turbulence in US markets until the debt ceiling is raised. Guys like Socal can short the US$ and make tons of money- or lose their shirts.

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## Hampsha

The next big hit to the economy? | The Lookout - Yahoo! News





> The recovery is weak now--but it could be headed for a major hit that will leave it even weaker.
> 
> At the start of 2012, the extended unemployment benefits approved by Congress in December 2010, which cover a maximum of 99 weeks per person, will expire. Though the benefits are hardly lavish--a little more than $300 a week for most recipients--their total impact on the economy is huge, because so many Americans are currently taking advantage of them. Moody's Analytics estimates that when the benefits expire,$37 billion will be taken out of the economy, the New York Times reports. That's enough to exert a significant slowing effect--at a time when the recovery is already a long way from robust.
> 
> Government benefits that go to poorer Americans, like unemployment insurance, tend to boost consumer spending more than other kinds of stimulus, because people living paycheck to paycheck have little choice but to spend the money, rather than saving it. So the disappearance of jobless benefits will take money out of circulation when economic growth is seeking to gain some traction.
> 
> Indeed, economists say that the withdrawal of jobless benefits will create a major ripple effect on growth as a whole. Consumer spending accounts for around 60-70 percent of U.S. economic activity, economists say. But with so many Americans having lost wealth in the housing bust, spending has been tepid for a while, preventing the recovery from gaining any momentum. Now, the end of the extended benefits will likely soon put a further crimp in spending.
> 
> And that, of course, leaves out the role the benefits play on an individual level, providing a crucial lifeline to millions of struggling Americans.


 
Full NY Times story here...
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/11/bu...pagewanted=all

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## Butterfly

> Could Socal be right?


I seriously doubt that, even though a broken clock can be right at least twice a day

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## Hampsha

Doesn't look too good for the US.

Return of the Gold Standard as world order unravels - Telegraph

When all this peaks, some people out there are going to loose big. Even if the gold price isn't a bubble, when things snap it will deliver pain just like a bubble usually does. Seem to be a lot of experts on both sides saying the other side is completely off.

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## Tom Sawyer

Asians are buying gold and property at home and abroad which in turn is creating false demand (e.g. bubbles). When a stablizing factor returns to currencies, the gold bubble will pop. If the Asian economies and jobs markets contract (e.g. Chinese esp.) their domestic and overseas demand will collapse - they'll need to sell and prices will be driven down. It's not rocket science - and never was.

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## Hampsha

We are in a countdown to the beginning of August. What will the dems and reps come up with to deal with the US? Whatever they come up with should say something about the future of gold and America. Sometimes I think the that the shock doctrine people are driving down the dollar for short term gain. The Repubs seem to be helping them spread the doom and fear.

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## Tom Sawyer

I guess we can all look for phantom indicators, but realization is setting in that this stagnant if not downward trend in US jobs market is a longer term thing. That's bad news for almost everyone - including the Chinese who hold much of the US debt. In other words, it's just bad and bad.

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## Hampsha

yep, but for the poorest and richest how much does the quality of life actually change really.

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## socal

> Asians are buying gold and property at home and abroad which in turn is creating false demand (e.g. bubbles). When a stablizing factor returns to currencies, the gold bubble will pop. If the Asian economies and jobs markets contract (e.g. Chinese esp.) their domestic and overseas demand will collapse - they'll need to sell and prices will be driven down. It's not rocket science - and never was.


Central banks are buying gold. The system is moving back to gold. There is no bubble in gold.You know nothing about central banking or economics if you compare gold to property.

Just when average people think they have this bubble thing figured out, they get caught on the wrong side again. The bubble is in digital money and government bonds.

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## Hampsha

Lately, I've found this guy to be a bit interesting. He predicted Iceland's collapse two years before it happened. He's got some interesting comments on Europe and the US in this clip from today, Aug 11.

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## baldrick

Nouriel Roubini says 50% chance of another recession




> *Karl Marx was right: 'capitalism can destroy itself' , says economist Nouriel Roubini*
> 
> 
> *                                  ECONOMIST Nouriel Roubini, in an interview with The Wall Street  Journal today, reached back into history and paraphrased another  well-known economist, to best explain what he thought of today's roiled  global economy.                                 * 
> 
>                   "Karl Marx was right, at some point capitalism can destroy itself,"  said Professor Roubini, who is best known for his dire outlook on  economic developments which has earned him the nickname Dr Doom.
> 
> "Markets are not working," currently, he said.
> Prof  Roubini, in the wide-ranging interview, said the global economy was at  the precipice of falling into a collective recession, led by the US, the  euro zone and Japan, and governments were doing exactly the wrong  things to prevent that.
> ...


Karl Marx was right: &#039;capitalism can destroy itself&#039; , says economist Nouriel Roubini | The Australian

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## terry57

> Went back to OZ for Xmas with the wife and kids, could not believe the prices of food etc.  OZ now is less than 70 grand a year if you have kids.


OZ is becoming insane, I work with young guys that have 350K mortgages, ain't unusual. Nearly all work a second job and the ones with kids are up against it.

Myself have no mortgage and my monthly visa card trots home regularly at 2K , I'm happy if it comes in lower which ain't very often . This is for living costs plus regular bills only and not much fat in there for entertainment.

I'll be living a very nice lifestyle in Thailand on that, cant wait.

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## Thormaturge

Sometimes I wonder whether European politicians are all mad.

Taking money from productive countries and sinking it into failing economies is a huge waste, and as we have seen with Greece it doesn't cure the problem. All we have done is shift the debt.

Either countries such as Greece, Spain, Ireland and Italy start producing something everyone else wants to buy, in order to repay the debt, or we inflate our way out of trouble.  Holding down inflation and shuffling the debt about just prolongs the problem.

It just seems to me that we either allow inflation to take hold or we face financial collapse.  Either way you want to be sitting on something physical rather than cash or stocks.

The sooner Bernanke announces QE3 the better for everyone.  I know it is Mickey Mouse money but it is either that or everyone takes a paycut.

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## socal

> Sometimes I wonder whether European politicians are all mad.
> 
> Taking money from productive countries and sinking it into failing economies is a huge waste, and as we have seen with Greece it doesn't cure the problem. All we have done is shift the debt.
> 
> Either countries such as Greece, Spain, Ireland and Italy start producing something everyone else wants to buy, in order to repay the debt, or we inflate our way out of trouble.  Holding down inflation and shuffling the debt about just prolongs the problem.
> 
> It just seems to me that we either allow inflation to take hold or we face financial collapse.  Either way you want to be sitting on something physical rather than cash or stocks.
> 
> The sooner Bernanke announces QE3 the better for everyone.  I know it is Mickey Mouse money but it is either that or everyone takes a paycut.


Stocks are more physical then cash or bonds. They at least give you a share in something physical. Metals is the best but stocks are certainly better then bonds or cash. reasonably priced real estate at this point  is good too.

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## Thormaturge

^
I agree that land is a good buy but not any form of buildings since prices are still inflated and further correction is likely.

When buildings are somewhere closer to the value of the labour and materials used to construct them then we may see prices stabilise. Anything above that level is speculation.  The property bubble hasn't burst, it is simply deflating slowly.

As for shares, you don't want to be sitting on shares in a company that is cash rich when he value of that cash is being deflated...but then do you want shares in a company without cash either?

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## nostromo

Where I vote for "Asia looks good but the west is in trouble."

Joking dont need to reply

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## Lorenzo

> Taking money from productive countries and sinking it into failing economies is a huge waste, and as we have seen with Greece


agreed .... and paraphrasing

Taking money from productive people (white males) and sinking it into unproductive people (negros :Smile: , spics, women libbers) is a huge waste, as we have seen with The US.  The Lyndon B. Johnson great society is not looking so great.

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## jamescollister

Along way from having any real ideal about what's going on, but think they should have let the system collapse when the GFC hit. We would be well on our way to recovery by now. 
Terry 57 be careful when you move here, things are booming in many areas and the cheap living may start to be not so cheap over the next few years.Jim

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## OhOh

> but Prof Roubini said he didn't disagree with Standard & Poor's premise that the US was on an unsustainable fiscal path and that Washington gridlock made it hard to achieve fiscal improvements.


Along with the Dagong rating agency




> Nearly all work a second job


Is that not the norm for fire fighters - the second job?

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## socal

> ^
> I agree that land is a good buy but not any form of buildings since prices are still inflated and further correction is likely.
> 
> When buildings are somewhere closer to the value of the labour and materials used to construct them then we may see prices stabilise. Anything above that level is speculation.  The property bubble hasn't burst, it is simply deflating slowly.
> 
> As for shares, you don't want to be sitting on shares in a company that is cash rich when he value of that cash is being deflated...but then do you want shares in a company without cash either?


Agree. You have to find real estate markets that have had very high interest rates for the last few years. Argentina has had high rates for the last 10 years so real estate is cheap. The Philippines is cheap too.

Shares in mining companies, utilities or blue chips will will at least stay intact and keep you out of currency risk.

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## LooseBowels

I'd sooner put it on the gee gee's   :Smile: 

At least you get a run for your doe

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## Hampsha

A Friday August 12 clip from from Fox Business. Jim Rogers discussing Europe and the markets in general.

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## Tom Sawyer

> Central banks are buying gold.


Do you have a link to that?

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## Hampsha

Just a few clips  for those with time.


The end of this one is interesting but basically the same message that many are saying which is that there's nothing supporting the dollar.





Older video but interesting. It's short clip about the US job story.





Short report from Reuters on France and Germany




Debt slowing US economy. But US better off than Europe.

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## Hampsha

Marc Faber on Gold's direction and US treasuries.

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## socal

> Originally Posted by socal
> 
> 
>  
> Central banks are buying gold. 
> 
> 
> Do you have a link to that?


UPDATE 2-Emerging world buys $10 bln in gold as West wobbles | Reuters

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## Lancelot

> Originally Posted by Hampsha
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 			
> 				Energy firms in the UK raising prices by a staggering 17/18% next month after a recent rise of 7%
> ...


In the know- Our Man Socal  :Smile: 

So good buddy, now that you've put Mr. Buffet in his place, what is your advice? Since you can get intell from people that get it right, why don't you start a thread posting your trades. Hmmm, you could name it Success with Socal  :bananaman:

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## Spin

There is still too much debt worldwide.

Those who should have had haircuts still have rather long hair.

Jim Rogers bow tie is still as gay as San Francisco.

If the printing stops, the fucking whole thing collapses.

Hold onto your hats, because shit could get pretty fucked up unless that cont-hole Bernanke comes up with something decent at Jackson Hole.

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## The Bold Rodney

> you could name it Success with Socal


Or..."Guaranteed Golden Success with Social", GGSS Ltd. has a nice ring to it? :Roll Eyes (Sarcastic):

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## Hampsha

My menial stocks are just fading away. It's amazing that people aren't more concerned about the state of things in general. Sometimes it seems like the world as we have known it is ending yet it doesn't seem to be affecting most people. Who is suffering with stocks down so much? Who is losing their money 401ks etc? Are most people just holding on thinking that things will come back? Will they? I'm starting to doubt it. You need to own gold or only golden stocks. Why aren't we hearing about loads of personal bankruptcies and businesses going under. This part of the current state of things seems strange. People and companies seem to be getting buy. I know some of it is happening but I wonder if the media is keeping it away from the front pages.

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## baldrick

an interesting article pertinent to the topic at hand




> *Why Economic Models Are Always Wrong*
> 
>                  Financial-risk models got us in trouble before the 2008 crash, and they're almost sure to get us in trouble again
> 
> 
> When it comes to assigning blame for the current economic doldrums,  the quants who build the complicated mathematic financial risk models,  and the traders who rely on them, deserve their share of the blame. [See A Formula For Economic Calamity in the November 2011 issue].  But what if there were a way to come up with simpler models that  perfectly reflected reality? And what if we had perfect financial data  to plug into them?
>  Incredibly, even under those utterly unrealizable conditions, we'd still get bad predictions from models.
>  The reason is that current methods used to calibrate models often render them inaccurate.
>  That's what Jonathan Carter stumbled on in his study of geophysical  models. Carter wanted to observe what happens to models when they're  slightly flawed--that is, when they don't get the physics just right.  But doing so required having a perfect model to establish a baseline. So  Carter set up a model that described the conditions of a hypothetical  oil field, and simply declared the model to perfectly represent what  would happen in that field--since the field was hypothetical, he could  take the physics to be whatever the model said it was. Then he had his  perfect model generate three years of data of what would happen. This  data then represented perfect data. So far so good.
> ...

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## OhOh

> standard calibration techniques


You mean like lead into gold "calibration? :Smile:

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