#  >  > Living And Legal Affairs In Thailand >  >  > Living In Thailand Forum >  >  The Thai Baht -- How High Can it Go?

## buadhai

As a fixed income retired geezer I'm a little concerned seeing the dollar drop to 38 per baht.

Any predictions?

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## ChiangMai noon

^
Likewise, I have my savings in a sterling account with SCB, don't often touch it but needed to make a hefty withdrawal last week, was rather dismayed to find that the pound had slipped below 70 baht.

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## Butterfly

Temporary thing, and I am over exposed to the US dollar too. A curse. Maybe the SHIN buyout has something to do with it. Should reverse soon.

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## buadhai

> Temporary thing, and I am over exposed to the US dollar too. A curse. Maybe the SHIN buyout has something to do with it. Should reverse soon.


I wish I shared your optimism....

The "Economist" magazine regularly publishes a Big Mac Index which indicates that the baht is severely undervalued, even when it was at about 40 to the dollar.

Not a scientific economic evaluation, but interesting nonetheless. 

It shows the Big Mac costing US$1.51 in Thailand vs. US$3.15 in the US.

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## laoshi

Yeah I think the baht is trending towards a period of strength. Possibly getting a lift from the Shinawa announcements this week. I reckon could see 60 to the pound fairly soon. Depends if we can gain on the dollar which is looking less likely as their interest rates are rising and are now higher than ours. Change now lads, 67 could look like a dream in a few months time...

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## The Ghost Of The Moog

Laws of currency hedging.


1) Whatever Butterfly suggests, take the contrarian viewpoint.

2) Alternatively: if you fear a strong baht, buy Thai Airways shares as a hedge, as they make windfall gains when the Baht strengthens due to their liabilities portfolio. In other words they borrowed US Dollars and it won't cost them as many Baht to repay the loans.

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## Airportwo

I was going to change money last week, thinking after election the Baht would drop - i held off, Mistake it went the other way, hard to understand why.

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## Butterfly

> I wish I shared your optimism....
> 
> The "Economist" magazine regularly publishes a Big Mac Index which indicates that the baht is severely undervalued, even when it was at about 40 to the dollar.
> 
> Not a scientific economic evaluation, but interesting nonetheless. 
> 
> It shows the Big Mac costing US$1.51 in Thailand vs. US$3.15 in the US.


I think it's the other way around. It's the US BigMac which is overvalued. It's not secret that the US has become too expensive and can't sustain this kind of price levels without the growth supporting it. The US is manufacturing growth through the magic of statistics, but there are not real growth at the moment. Maybe the US BigMac index should be on the same level as Thailand.

With worldwide inflation looming, I don't see how things can improve and how currency in third world countries like Thailand can sustain such a high value. It doesn't add up. Look around and tell me you don't find anything wrong with all those "predictions" and "estimates".

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## laoshi

the baht is currently 66.63 to the pound and is 42 satng down today alone. It's fucking roaring ahead

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## ChiangMai noon

3 month low prediction is just over 60 and high is 68.8....

Better off in hedging with baht going by those figures.

http://www.ratesfx.com/predictions/pred-thb.html

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## laoshi

Look at it positively. If you're living in Thailand and have a salary and property. You've had a 10 percent increase over the past few months on currency rates alone  :rock_dj:   ...

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## aging one

Damn I feel for you but I am in a weird situation I am actively buying dollars. Yup I plan a major change and reinvestment is coming in 3 years. I just hope it stays down another 2 or 3 weeks. Then I dont give a damn.

Just let me finish covertly buying my bucks.

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## laoshi

I think the point is AO that everyone is talking about a possible dip to 60 baht. That's the time to buy chunks mate...

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## aging one

Dont think so mate.  But I am looking at the 38 baht threshold.  Damn I do hope it does in the very short run.  Dont want people to get messed over.  I am sort of the odd one odd here.

But dont worry all it will go back up again.  Always has.

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## mad_dog

> ^
> Likewise, I have my savings in a sterling account with SCB, don't often touch it but needed to make a hefty withdrawal last week, was rather dismayed to find that the pound had slipped below 70 baht.


 I got 66 at de airport !! WTF

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## laoshi

Asia 
 E-Mail This Story  Printer-Friendly Format 
VideoBank of America's Parpart: Thai Baht, Bank of Korea, Won  adType = "std"; Category = "03"; HCat = "RNI1"; Keys = "null"; Width = "336"; Height = "280"; Tile = "1";CallAd(adType, HCat, Width, Height, Tile, Keys, Category);var iframeRequest = false;dcmaxversion = 9dcminversion = 3DoOn Error Resume Nextplugin = (IsObject(CreateObject("ShockwaveFlash.ShockwaveFl  ash." & dcmaxversion & "")))If plugin = true Then Exit Dodcmaxversion = dcmaxversion - 1Loop While dcmaxversion >= dcminversionAU Optronics to Acquire Rival Quanta Display for $2.2 Billion in Shares 

Asian Stocks Rise to 16-Year Highs; Advantest, NEC Gain on Industry Report 

Exxon, Pertamina May Delay Oil Drilling in Indonesia Field on Rig Scarcity 
 adType = "std"; Category = "03"; HCat = "RNI1"; Keys = "null"; Width = "336"; Height = "280"; Tile = "3";CallAd(adType, HCat, Width, Height, Tile, Keys, Category);document.write('');Currency Strategists: Credit Suisse Raises Thai Baht Forecasts April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse raised its forecasts for the Thai baht versus the dollar this week on expectations political turmoil in Thailand will wane following the resignation of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. 
Thailand's currency rose to the highest in almost six years yesterday following Thaksin's decision to step down on April 4 amid daily protest rallies and a political standoff that crippled his government. His resignation came after the three main opposition parties boycotted snap elections he called on April 2. 
``We view Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's resignation as the key to a resolution of the recent political crisis,'' Ray Farris and Shuen Hooi Yeoh, currency strategists at Credit Suisse in Singapore, wrote in a research report dated April 5. ``We have turned more bullish on the baht.'' 
The baht traded at 38.25 per dollar as of 12:02 a.m. today in Bangkok, after reaching 38.14 yesterday, its strongest since May 2000. Thailand's benchmark SET Index of stocks rose 3.1 percent on April 5, the biggest gain since May 2004. The market was closed yesterday for a holiday. 
Credit Suisse, the second-largest Swiss bank by assets, expects the baht to rise to 37.5 per dollar in three months and 37.0 per dollar in a year, the strongest since January 2000. The bank's previous forecasts for those periods were 39.5 per dollar and 39.2, respectively. 
ABN Amro Holding NV and JPMorgan Chase & Co also predict the baht will gain. ABN Amro said the currency will reach 37.5 per dollar within three months and JPMorgan said it will trade at 38.2 by the end of June. 
`Capital Flows' 
Protest groups had been holding rallies demanding Thaksin leave office after his family in January sold its stake in Bangkok-based telecommunications group Shin Corp., netting a tax- free $1.9 billion. 
Thaksin said he'll stay on until a new prime minister is chosen and will retain his leadership of his Thai Rak Thai party. 
``Shinawatra's resignation creates room for confidence and capital flows to resume because it should end the recent large protests in Bangkok and the risk of violence,'' the Credit Suisse strategists wrote. 
Overseas investors on April 5 bought 15 billion baht more shares than they sold, the widest margin since Jan. 4. 
Thailand's SET Index has risen 7.6 percent this year, trailing other markets in the region. Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index has gained 16.6 percent and Singapore's Straits Times Index is up 8.3 percent. 
Rate Increases 
Interest-rate increases by Thailand's central bank may also spur baht strength, according to the strategists. 
The Bank of Thailand may raise its target rate by at least another 75 basis points from 4.5 percent at present, the analysts wrote. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The U.S. Federal Reserve's benchmark rate is 4.75 percent. 
``We expect monetary policy tightening to support the baht,'' according to the report. 
The central bank raised rates on March 8 for the 11th time in 19 months, helping the currency to a 7.3 percent gain this year. 
Thai inflation accelerated in March as fuel, food and beverage prices rose, putting pressure on the central bank to keep lifting borrowing costs. 
Credit Suisse also said the surplus in Thailand's current account, the broadest measure of the country's international trade, will increase demand for the currency. 
Thailand posted its eighth straight monthly current-account surplus in February as exports of cars, electronics and farm products rose, and a rebound in overseas visitors increased tourism earnings. 
The surplus widened to $666 million from $504 million in January, according to the central bank. A larger surplus means Thai exporters have more foreign currency to convert into baht.

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## Goddess of Whatever

William, I want to hear your opinion.

 :Confused:

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## ChiangMai noon

So, in the last couple of months my house in Thailand has increased in value by 10% or so.
Maybe time to sell up and take my winnings back to the UK.

I am also earning a few more dollars than I was.
Life is fucking great.
 :Sad:

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## friscofrankie

38 or lower buy
41.5 or higher sell 
it fluctuates through this range every damn year.
Lowest I've seen it: 36, 
highest: 44
last 6 years or so.

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## NickA

Got lucky when I bought my house, transferred x thousand pounds over to buy my (wife's) house last year and got an exchange rate of over 75 baht/pound (we were hoping for 70-72, just lucky on the day), which meant I had a few hundred thousand left over to buy furniture and stuff.

If I sold up at the same price and then transferred money back at, say, 65 baht, I'd have nearly 10,000 quid more than I started with, fooking great!

(anyone who is clever at maths could work out x, but I don't think I'm going to tell you)

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## ChiangMai noon

^
I always seem to fuck these things up.
The opposite seems to have happened to me.

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## Butterfly

> Laws of currency hedging.
> 
> 
> 1) Whatever Butterfly suggests, take the contrarian viewpoint.


Well that's because I keep confusing how currency goes up while the other go down. But I think I got it by now  :saythat:

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## buadhai

I got lucky when I bought my car last year. Transferred about US$16,000 when the baht was down to 42 to a dollar.

Of course, I also remember when it was about 25....

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## Mr Earl

> Laws of currency hedging.
> 
> 
> 1) Whatever Butterfly suggests, take the contrarian viewpoint.
> 
> 2) Alternatively: if you fear a strong baht, buy Thai Airways shares as a hedge, as they make windfall gains when the Baht strengthens due to their liabilities portfolio. In other words they borrowed US Dollars and it won't cost them as many Baht to repay the loans.


This makes a lot of sense.
Also since the US has the best airplanes (Boeing, Gulfstream, Cessna) Figure on their market share going up with a weak dollar.

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## forreachingme

Being one exporter is tough...

We now loose nearly 10 % on what our European customer pay us with this foreign exchange fluctuations...

If we input in our price quotes that we will change the prices further if fluctuation reaches 10 % from actual value, not many agree....

Anyway the best is if the economic recovery for still end of 2001 would show more strength and steadiness as period of declines and strength were said to be 7 years waves in the past decennies and predicted at 5 years periods actually...

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## laoshi

Still treading 6660's to the pound this week. I guess the next big move will be the next election...

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## buadhai

38.00 to the dollar now according to Yahoo.

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## Bluecat

> 38.00 to the dollar now according to Yahoo.


It will probably go back to 39 from here this week or the week after, not much higher.
After that, it is anybody's guess...

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## otherstuff1957

Excellent!  I just wired some money back the states.  :Very Happy:  The timing worked out perfectly.

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## ChiangMai noon

Well, the baht is now sinking next to the pound.

Very good news indeed
Got 71.8 baht to the pound yesterday, an extra 20,000 baht than I'd have got had I listened to Laoishi when the baht was at 65 last month.

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## hillbilly

I am jealous of most of you posters for I live off of the baht.  :Sad:  i buy Amerikan dollars from time to time but do not know really what i am doing...

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## Marmite the Dog

Dollars ain't worth shit, so I wouldn't worry HB

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## Dougal

> Got 71.8 baht to the pound yesterday,


Which bank was that CMN? Bangkok bank has been 70.nn for the past couple of days.

God knows what is propping the pound up - economy looks crap here (UK).

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## ChiangMai noon

^
SiamCity Bank.

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## Storekeeper

Other than the big one timre transfer I have planned for late December/early January I don't concern myself with the rate too much. I don't, it just seems like after years of following the yen I guess I believe there will always be minor fluctuations. As long as then yen is around 105/110 ... my gut feeling tells me the baht won't ever drop below 35.

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## king of uranus

I've been buying gold, Canadian Maples -four nines pure. I could have nearly twice as many ounces for the same price if I'd have heeded my own advice last summer. I know the dollar is fiat currency, but does anyone know if the Baht is backed?

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## aging one

Below 38 today!!  I am hoping Bush will keep talking and it will go to 36, I am still buying dollars, but have slowed.  I just have a hunch it will surely go to 37.

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## king of uranus

> Below 38 today!!  I am hoping Bush will keep talking and it will go to 36, I am still buying dollars, but have slowed.  I just have a hunch it will surely go to 37.


What do you see for a bottom for the dollar?

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## ChiangMai noon

> 2006               May     June    July     August  Sept   Oct
> Forecast Value 	40.1 	40.8 	42.3 	 42.9 	 41.7 	 41.4
> 50% Correct 	0.97 	1.1 	1.3 	  1.4 	   1.4 	    1.4
> 90% Correct 	2.3 	2.7 	 3.1 	   3.3 	    3.3      3.4


these are the forecasts.

Sorry about that messy bit of cut and paste.
source + financial forecast center.

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## aging one

It broke 38 but only for a day back to 38.1 today.  I am going to wait and hope it goes to 37, but the day it starts to gain, I am at super rich again.

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## Thetyim

CMN, where did you get that forecast from.

I know absolutely FA about money markets but have always sent money to LOS in August as the rate seems to peak then.  Everyone laughs at my idea .

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## ChiangMai noon

http://www.forecasts.org/baht.htm

From here Thetyim, i suspect however that our guess is as good as theirs.
3 weeks ago the 3 month forecast high for the pound was 68 pence and the forecast low was 60, Im glad i didn't take any notive of it.

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## mrsquirrel

I just fired a 1 baht coin into the air with a slingshot and I think it went about 35 metres up.

Can you beat that?

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## ChiangMai noon

what was it fired with?

i suspect you are more mechanically minded than me, but I would like to fashion something out of a pipe cleaner and some good quality tissue paper.

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## Eliminator

It happens EVERY year here The baht gets better and then it slides back down again. Nothing is going to change except that the baht is going to lose again. I give it a week or two more at best and then it will die again.  Too much spending and not enough to support it. I think that in less than a year, you'll see the IMF stepping in again.

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## king of uranus

> 2006               May     June    July     August  Sept   Oct
> Forecast Value     40.1     40.8     42.3      42.9      41.7      41.4
> 50% Correct     0.97     1.1     1.3       1.4        1.4         1.4
> 90% Correct     2.3     2.7      3.1        3.3         3.3      3.4
> 			
> 		
> 
> these are the forecasts.
> 
> ...


Thanks for the link, it's bookmarked.
I'm kinda bearish on the buck but have no idea about the Bhat. In relation to the $ I would bet on the Bhat.

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## aging one

The Thai Finance minister came out and said he wants to keep it at 37.5 to 38.5.  Dont know why but it makes me happy.

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## ChiangMai noon

Far better off in pounds, i've got 10 percent richer in the last month.
 :Very Happy:  

Started of pretty poor and not so poor anymore.

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## aging one

> Far better off in pounds, i've got 10 percent richer in the last month.


Is this your way of saying in a cryptic way that you are still putting on weight? :Smile:

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## Boon Mee

> The Thai Finance minister came out and said he wants to keep it at 37.5 to 38.5. Dont know why but it makes me happy.


Which means it's going to hit 40 soon...

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## ChiangMai noon

> Yeah I think the baht is trending towards a period of strength. Possibly getting a lift from the Shinawa announcements this week. I reckon could see 60 to the pound fairly soon. Depends if we can gain on the dollar which is looking less likely as their interest rates are rising and are now higher than ours. Change now lads, 67 could look like a dream in a few months time...


whatever you do, don't listen to Laoishi for economic advise.
 :Razz: 

^
posted earlier in this thread.

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## Storekeeper

> Which means it's going to hit 40 soon...


I've got a major money transfer chillin' pending this happening.

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## Mr Earl

> Originally Posted by Boon Mee
> 
>  Which means it's going to hit 40 soon...
> 
> 
> I've got a major money transfer chillin' pending this happening.


Yea me too. I've been living off the money I make here for past few months.
I'm starting to think like a Thai person. (especially now during low season)
I'll have to put off the GS1200 purchase!
At least it up to 38.4 from  37.4!
41+ would be nice to see again!

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## Jerrys

The dollar going down and the Baht up....Lets face it!

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## HAMILTON

Just changed £500 and got 34,300 Bahts here in UK.  (That's 68.6 Bahts to the pound)   I've been getting fewer Bhts as each year passes.

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## endure

> Just changed £500 and got 34,300 Bahts here in UK.  (That's 68.6 Bahts to the pound)   I've been getting fewer Bhts as each year passes.


That's quite a reasonable rate for a transaction in the UK. Most of the banks would be giving you 64-ish but it's always best to change your money in Thailand rather than the UK.

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## Butterfly

still hoovering around 37 / 38

Aren't we all fucked

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## aging one

Its gone up a bit from 37.70 on Wednesday to 37.93 on Friday.  Sorry boys but again I want to buy dollars and am not free enough until a week from Monday the 24th.  Just 38.00 for me to buy dollars, and then I hope it goes up. :Smile:

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## Butterfly

so far this year, I have lost about 200,000 baht in exchange rate alone !!! since it went up from 44, probably lost close to 400,000 baht

And I am not even including my loss with Euros yet, which are close to 50,000 Euros since 2002

Maybe I should start looking for those sites with FX trading, but they all look like scams, so I am worried.

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## buadhai

> Sorry boys but again I want to buy dollars


Can you explain your strategy?

I see dollar is up over 38 baht, but it's still only July 16th.

What's your plan?

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## buadhai

Dollar down to 37.34 baht as I type.

How much worse will it get?

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## RDN

GB Pound up to 71.8. 

How much better will it get?   :Wink:

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## ChiangMai noon

> GB Pound up to 71.8.
> 
> How much better will it get?


oh, marvellous news, i'm off to buy some real beer in rimping.
 :Very Happy:

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## Dougal

> GB Pound up to 71.8. How much better will it get?


YOu got me all excited for a minute - that's a selling price you quoted. Bangkok Bank are giving 69.42 THB per GBP.

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## RDN

> Originally Posted by RDN
> 
> GB Pound up to 71.8. How much better will it get?
> 
> 
> YOu got me all excited for a minute - that's a selling price you quoted. Bangkok Bank are giving 69.42 THB per GBP.


Bugger, I always get them mixed up. This is what the BOT rate is:

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## Butterfly

I wish I was British !!!  :bunny3:

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## Airportwo

I had the choice a few years back of being paid in Sterling or US $
Guess which I chose!!!! Batserd basetd Bastard!!!

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## Marmite the Dog

> I wish I was British !!!


Who doesn't?

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## in4zip

> Originally Posted by Butterfly
> 
> 
> I wish I was British !!! 
> 
> 
> Who doesn't?


Me!  :La:

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## Marmite the Dog

> Originally Posted by Marmite the Dog
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by Butterfly
> ...


Don't be silly.

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## Little Chuchok

> Originally Posted by Marmite the Dog
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by Butterfly
> ...


And me...

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## ChiangMai noon

Me too.

I classify myself as a Welsh European.

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## Marmite the Dog

> Me too.
> 
> I classify myself as a Welsh European.


Sorry old chap, but your lot are under direct control of Her Majesty.

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## aging one

Still going down.  I hope Super Rich the exchange agency is open on monday.

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## Little Chuchok

> Originally Posted by ChiangMai noon
> 
> 
> Me too.
> 
> I classify myself as a Welsh European.
> 
> 
> Sorry old chap, but your lot are under direct control of Her Majesty.


That's cruel....

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## buadhai

Damn, US dollar down to 37.3 baht. 

Time to switch to Lao Cao, dial up, and free to air TV....

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## ChiangMai noon

> Time to switch to Lao Cao,


yup, i dun it already.
makes sound sense.

can get ever so wankered on 60 baht.

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## Skulldigger

Use XE.com - The World's Favorite Currency and Foreign Exchange FX Site for updated midmarket rates for all currencies.

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## buadhai

I kind of like this one:

FXHistory - Historical Currency Exchange Rates

It lets you build a table of historical foreign exchange rates.


FXHistory: historical currency exchange rates

Conversion Table: USD to THB (Interbank rate) 

   Time period: 08/13/06 to 08/19/06. 
Daily averages:

08/13/2006	37.560
08/14/2006	37.560
08/15/2006	37.42990
08/16/2006	37.41740
08/17/2006	37.42360
08/18/2006	37.58720
08/19/2006	37.62460
  Average (7 days):	 37.51467
  High:	 37.69000
  Low:	 37.26000

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## Dougal

The Thai government are also getting concerend over the strength of the Baht, which they put down to increased inflows of foreign currency, and are making noises about intervening to bring it lower.

Such tinkering rarely works in my limited experience.

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## Thetyim

I use this one because I like graphs

Exchange Rates Table for Thai Baht, Thailand

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## buadhai

^
Excellent, but slightly sickening....

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## Airportwo

^ Agreed - bookmarked it, I'm looking for a new job - paid in sterling, never thought I would be doing that - Thanks George   :Wink:

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## Marmite the Dog

Why is Sterling so strong?

Is it because we don't lie and cheat as much as US companies/government?

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## buadhai

^
Can you say "Downing Street Memo"?

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## Marmite the Dog

> ^
> Can you say "Downing Street Memo"?


I can say it, but could you enlighten me to the (probably not so) hidden meaning please?

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## Dougal

> Why is Sterling so strong?


Our currency trader is puzzled too. His view is that Sterling is benefitting from Dollar weakness but expects a correction in the long term.

Sterling was stronger against the Baht earlier this year.

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## buadhai

> Originally Posted by buadhai
> 
> 
> ^
> Can you say "Downing Street Memo"?
> 
> 
> I can say it, but could you enlighten me to the (probably not so) hidden meaning please?


Well, err, ah...

Never mind!

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## aging one

Thats what I heard as well. "the downing st. memo." very surprised Marmers does not know of it.  Very important stuff it contains. Very important indeed.

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## Marmite the Dog

Bladdy wind-up merchants you lot are.

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## buadhai

> The Downing Street "Memo" is actually meeting minutes transcribed during the British Prime Minister's meeting on July 23, 2002. Published by The Sunday Times on May 1, 2005 it was the first hard evidence from within the UK or US governments that exposed the truth about how the Iraq war began.


Just pointing out that the British government lies just as easily as does the US government.

But, let's leave it at that since this is not the "Issues" forum.

Remember, Wiki is your friend: Downing Street Memo

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## Thetyim

Pound up to  71.05  at  COB

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## Marmite the Dog

> The Downing Street "Memo" is actually meeting minutes transcribed during the British Prime Minister's meeting on July 23, 2002. Published by The Sunday Times on May 1, 2005 it was the first hard evidence from within the UK or US governments that exposed the truth about how the Iraq war began.
> 			
> 		
> 
> Just pointing out that the British government lies just as easily as does the US government.
> 
> But, let's leave it at that since this is not the "Issues" forum.
> 
> Remember, Wiki is your friend: Downing Street Memo


I meant that our financial institutions have more integrity; we know Labour governments don't have any and they never have.

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## buadhai

> I meant that our financial institutions have more integrity; we know Labour governments don't have any and they never have.


Sorry about that. I thought you were talking about governmental and institutional honesty in general....

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## Marmite the Dog

^ To be perfectly honest with you, I can't remember what I was talking about. I just like to argue.  :Smile:

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## buadhai

> I can't remember what I was talking about. I just like to argue.


Wait 'till you get to be my age and you find that whether or not you've had breakfast is a mystery.

And, BTW, who are you, anyway?

----------


## Marmite the Dog

> And, BTW, who are you, anyway?


Hang on. I've got a name card somewhere....

Now, where did I put my wallet?

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## Thetyim

> I just like to argue.


No you don't

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## Dougal

> I meant that our financial institutions have more integrity;


If you believe that, you may be interested in buying shares in my oil well company.

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## Marmite the Dog

> Originally Posted by Marmite the Dog
> 
> I meant that our financial institutions have more integrity;
> 
> 
> If you believe that, you may be interested in buying shares in my oil well company.


Can you lend me the money first?

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## Dougal

£25 notes OK? 

I'll have to hold your new car as collateral.

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## in4zip

> Wait 'till you get to be my age and you find that whether or not you've had breakfast is a mystery.


you're hillarious BD and how true

furthermore MtD ain't that far away, 
matter of fok he's jes around the corner of the mighty five O

its all downhill from thar, Marmers!  :Cool:

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## buadhai

> matter of fok he's jes around the corner of the mighty five O


That's funny, he writes so much younger!

 :Wink:

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## Marmite the Dog

I must've missed a decade somewhere along the line.

 FARK!

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## Dougal

Forgetting what you had for breakfast is one thing, but forgetting a whole decade!!!

If that's what Guinness does to you I'm sticking to lager.

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## Marmite the Dog

> If that's what Guinness does to you I'm sticking to lager.


Poove!

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## Airportwo

Bombs going off all over the South, no legal goverment, rumours of a military take over - Yet the baht remains strong - Why???

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## Dougal

> Bombs going off all over the South, no legal goverment, rumours of a military take over - Yet the baht remains strong - Why???


Most of this is already factored into the price. It's change and surprise that the market doesn't like.

No government? That implies stability, as the caretakers can't make any sudden moves that might spook the market. provided that no untoward external events occur that the caretakers can't respond to.

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## Dougal

Now what was it I was saying about events that the caretaker government couldn't respond to?

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## Airportwo

I did of course change money - yesterday!

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## ChiangMai noon

Pure speculation here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the pound peaking at 80, and then settling down after the elections.

----------


## aging one

I did not change in time. Waiting on it to go lower. Speaking to my banker today, he really believes not to worry. Up to maybe 40 but in the long run say a month or two all should be well. Foreign bussiness welcomes the change in the long run. Now which technocrat to run the country for a while.

I am sad I cant buy baht and I may loose out in the long run. But so glad the asshole is gone.

He is now flying to London, If the new leaders revoke his passport as he is no longer prime minister can he be denied entry. Also his son and wife are flying out of Singapore today to meet him. Do they have multiple entry British visa's or could they be turned away as well?

This is my forth coup, the currency always stabilized and rose before. Fuck me.

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## Butterfly

THB down to 38 !!! we are back baby !!!

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## Storekeeper

Looks like this is my window of opportunity to buy up some baht.

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## ChiangMai noon

Give it a week or two, i reckon.

----------


## aging one

> Give it a week or two, i reckon.


A man of wisdom who has relieved my aging brain just a bit.  I agree mate the baht will strengthen in the long run with the despot gone.

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## mrsquirrel

IT was at 43 not long ago. 

Less than a year anyway.

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## buadhai

37.09 to the dollar and I'm just about to spend 1.6 million on a house. Bad timing Mr. Buadhai. Better crack open the headache powder packet....

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## buadhai

The Nation:




> Central Bank says baht too strong
> 
> Bank of Thailand acting governor Dr Thalisa Watanakes said baht is now "a little bit too strong" at the rate of Bt37.11 per a US dollar.
> 
> The baht rose to Bt37.11 per US dollar in the morning trade, the strongest level in six years.
> 
> She said the baht became stronger mainly because of inflow capitals to the stock market.
> 
> Thalisa declined to commit herself whether the central bank would intervene to soften baht

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## Mr Earl

If it's not one farking thing it's another.(sars, bombs, bird flu, tsunami)
This is all we need is funging strong baht!

Maybe they will start playing cricket in the USA?

----------


## buadhai

> Maybe they will start playing cricket in the USA?


Please not that. I'd rather just watch your avatar for five days.

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## Thetyim

> Maybe they will start playing cricket in the USA


Is that the game God invented to remind us what eternity was like ?

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## Butterfly

> IT was at 43 not long ago.


more like 2 years actually

The SET is fucking hot, I am making a killing

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## king of uranus

> Originally Posted by Mr Earl
> 
> Maybe they will start playing cricket in the USA?
> 
> 
> Please not that. I'd rather just watch your avatar for five days.


I'm pretty sure I saw it jiggle. And in just a minute thirty eight!

----------


## bustak

> Originally Posted by Mr Earl
> 
> Maybe they will start playing cricket in the USA
> 
> 
> Is that the game God invented to remind us what eternity was like ?


 :Laugh2:  :Laugh2:

----------


## Skulldigger

*1.00 USD*
United States Dollars                =            *36.7265 THB* Thailand Baht                              

1 USD = 36.7265 THB          
            1 THB = 0.0272283 USD

*1.00 EUR*
Euro                =            *46.7273 THB* Thailand Baht                              

1 EUR = 46.7273 THB          
            1 THB = 0.0214008 EUR  

 :Sad:

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## Bluecat

It should go back to about 39-40 soon but not for very long.
Expect the 36/US$ or lower to be more common in the not too distant  future...

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## buadhai

> It should go back to about 39-40 soon but not for very long.
> Expect the 36/US$ or lower to be more common in the not too distant  future...


OK. Interesting. I'm going to have to transfer about US$40K to Thailand sometime in the next six months. Timing is pretty much up to me; as soon as tomorrow as late as mid-April.

Any advice as to timing?

----------


## Bluecat

> Originally Posted by Bluecat
> 
> It should go back to about 39-40 soon but not for very long.
> Expect the 36/US$ or lower to be more common in the not too distant future...
> 
> 
> OK. Interesting. I'm going to have to transfer about US$40K to Thailand sometime in the next six months. Timing is pretty much up to me; as soon as tomorrow as late as mid-April.
> 
> Any advice as to timing?


The Baht is overbought now, so the decline should come anytime. I would guess within this year anyway...

----------


## Storekeeper

> Originally Posted by Bluecat
> 
> It should go back to about 39-40 soon but not for very long.
> Expect the 36/US$ or lower to be more common in the not too distant future...
> 
> 
> OK. Interesting. I'm going to have to transfer about US$40K to Thailand sometime in the next six months. Timing is pretty much up to me; as soon as tomorrow as late as mid-April.
> 
> Any advice as to timing?


I transferred $20K this morning ... I should have done it last week  :Sad:

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## buadhai

> I transferred $20K this morning ... I should have done it last week


Or, next....

I see by the "Storekeeper Checks Out" page that you've got just 45 days left. Is that about right?

----------


## Storekeeper

> Originally Posted by Storekeeper
> 
> I transferred $20K this morning ... I should have done it last week
> 
> 
> Or, next....
> 
> I see by the "Storekeeper Checks Out" page that you've got just 45 days left. Is that about right?


Yes, I've got 45 days till I start terminal/job/house hunting leave. I'll still be in Japan until early March just hanging out. I'm not actually out of the Navy untuil 31 March 2007.

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## forreachingme

My acountant does often transfers, mostly in Euro, so i do not know if this is same with the USD, we found out a difference by transfers reaching beginning or end of week...

if it reaches Thailand monday or tuesday it is normally better then thursday or friday, so mostly we initiate transfers leaving on friday abroad, up to now this rule is generally working pretty well...

----------


## William

*KRC says baht likely to get even stronger
*
The baht is projected to further strengthen due to stronger Chinese yuan, weakening of the US dollar, and the recovery of the Thai economy, according to the Kasikorn Research Centre.

The currency traded at 36.64 per US dollar in commercial deals today. Tourist rates at banks for $50 and $100 bills were 36.37 for tourists seeking bath, 36.97 per dollar for those buying the US currency.

The leading think tank reported the baht had appreciated at a higher rate than other regional currencies due mainly to a foreign capital inflow into the country.

Although the country’s economic fundamental had been affected by various negative factors, particularly political uncertainties, in the first seven months of this year, the capital inflow from the non-banking institutions rose to 370 billion baht from 180 billion baht in the same period last year.

Most of the capital stemmed from foreign direct investment and portfolio investment.

In the rest of this year until next year, KRC viewed, the baht would continue to strengthen against the dollar since the US Federal Reserve is expected to stop raising key interest rates and the US economy is set to slow down.

As well, a possible strengthening of the Chinese yuan to ease the overheating of the economy would boost the baht appreciation.

KRC said although the Thai economy might expand only 3-3.5 per cent in the second half of this year compared with 5.5 per cent in the first half, it is expected the economy would expand 4-5 per cent next year compared with 4-4.5 per cent this year.

The expected economic improvement would contribute the stronger baht.

Should the local political situation improve with the drafting of the new constitution and the forming of the new civil government still intact, KRC projected, the baht would further appreciate and touch 35.10 baht next year.

KRC viewed the stronger baht would not adversely affect the country’s exports if it had strengthened in the same level with other regional currencies like that of this year.

A main concern that could have impacts on the Thai exports is an economic slowdown of the country’s main traders, particularly the US.

KRC suggested Thai exporters brace for the baht volatility by hedging against currency exchange risks.

What they could protect themselves most effortlessly is to distribute exports markets, reduce trade in the US dollar denomination, and count on advanced financial tools.

As well, the Bank of Thailand and the Stock Exchange of Thailand might need to brace for an inflow of a large foreign capital amount aimed at speculating on the baht movement.

Such a capital inflow could make the baht and stock prices fluctuate.

However, KRC believed, the central bank would consider easing the strict interest rate policy next year due to the stronger baht, the expected inflation decline, and the export slowdown. (TNA)

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## buadhai

> The baht is projected to further strengthen due to stronger Chinese yuan, weakening of the US dollar, and the recovery of the Thai economy, according to the Kasikorn Research Centre.


Wonderful news....

----------


## Butterfly

This is going to hurt Thailand export badly, Q3 is not going to be so hot, which mean Thai stocks are going to be overpriced in the next couple of months, not good. It would seem that those foreigner capital inflow always got their timing wrong, buying when it's already up, and leaving when the market is beat up

----------


## spliff

> Originally Posted by buadhai
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>  Originally Posted by Bluecat
> ...


Damm...SK you could have bought a decent motercycle w/ the cash you lost at this rate...should've waited!

----------


## egeefay

The baht was 36.5 today.
How low will it go???

----------


## DrAndy

34.8   enough

----------


## in4zip

> 34.8   enough


Andy where you got that forex rate?

Oanda just gave me Median price = 36.48255 / 36.77473 (bid/ask)

----------


## breezer1

> Originally Posted by DrAndy
> 
> 
> 34.8 enough
> 
> 
> Andy where you got that forex rate?
> 
> Oanda just gave me Median price = 36.48255 / 36.77473 (bid/ask)


Whats the best way to change large amount of sterling to thai baht would it be best to get rate through one of the Thai banks ?

----------


## Marmite the Dog

> Whats the best way to change large amount of sterling to thai baht would it be best to get rate through one of the Thai banks ?


Use Super Rich. Near Big C on Ratchadamri Road.

----------


## breezer1

> Originally Posted by breezer
> 
> Whats the best way to change large amount of sterling to thai baht would it be best to get rate through one of the Thai banks ?
> 
> 
> Use Super Rich. Near Big C on Ratchadamri Road.


What is it a money broker ?

----------


## Airportwo

Not looking so good, is it! & still going down     :Sad:

----------


## Anonymous Coward

> Not looking so good, is it! & still going down


Down nearly 20&#37; since I moved to LOS. Have to switch from Chang to Lao Cao soon.

----------


## The_Dude

The price last checked was 35.75THB to 1US$ I was in LOS 12/4/06 not much change. How low can it go and will this effect peak season and the economy.

----------


## keda

Sub-35 as of last evening, but when it bounces back will do so with a vengeance.

----------


## Anonymous Coward

> Sub-35 as of last evening, but when it bounces back will do so with a vengeance.


And that will be...

next week?

next month?

next year?

----------


## ChiangMai noon

God bless the mighty pound.
 :Smile:

----------


## Anonymous Coward

Well, I'm up shit creek now. If the baht stays where it is will no longer be able to come up with the cash I need to pay for the house on which I've already plunked down a huge deposit.

The loser loses again.

----------


## Butterfly

The THB is under attack according to experts and the BoT

This could mean that it could go end like in 1997

We already had a coup that wasn't possible, so why not a 1997 encore  :Very Happy:

----------


## DFCarlson

> ...but when it bounces back will do so with a vengeance.


Those who've made partial investments here and have to pay up to avoid losing the whole thing aren't the only ones at risk!  Some of us here who get income in US$ are seeing fewer baht for the dollar, but for me it's not going to be a problem unless there's a REAL crash. So far I just pay the bills and keep the rest in dollars. 30 or below and there'll be a bit of belt tightening. 25 will probably start me thinking about where else to go. In the end I can't influence the rate, there's nothing to do but watch and react accordingly. 

The question is not only WHEN but IF it bounces back.  I hope to hell it does come back, and SOON!

----------


## DFCarlson

> The THB is under attack according to experts and the BoT
> 
> This could mean that it could go end like in 1997
> 
> We already had a coup that wasn't possible, so why not a 1997 encore


Under attack? What does that mean?

If it means that there are artificial means being used to make the value of the baht go up (like the attempt to corner the silver market many years ago) thereby providing the means to make a profit when it goes back down (by shorting it), then maybe there's hope. Then the value has to go down in order for the speculators to make their profit. The only question then is how high will it (or can it) go?

What do you think is happening?

BTW have you ever seen the movie "Trading Places" with Eddie Murphy and Dan Ayckroyd?

----------


## Butterfly

^ no, I think it's the other way. The BoT is trying to defend the THB against speculators by making it strengthen and kill the speculators who have to cover their short position. It's a gamble. They did the same in 1997 and it failed. It went up to 24 just before it crashed.

It's also hurting massively Thai export companies so next year the earnings won't be good for the SET, and they also expect a "soft landing" in terms of growth, so it doesn't look good. Taxsin has been out for 3 months, and it's already cahos.

I am sure all the big fish are buying USD like crazy before the BoT stop defending it, that's why it might go up to 34 in the coming week.

This with a 50&#37; inflation rate in the last 3 years (at least in Bangkok), life is starting to be difficult here.

We are seriously OWNED. I think I will move to Canada soon.

----------


## ADare

It is the U$D that is weak more than the Thai Baht being strong, just look at the recent averages against the GBP.


 *2006* - British Pounds to 1 USD</B> (invert)Average RatesJanuary0.566481 GBP   (21 days average)February0.572156 GBP   (19 days average)March0.573346 GBP   (23 days average)April0.56569 GBP   (20 days average)May0.535321 GBP   (23 days average)June0.54249 GBP   (22 days average)July0.542221 GBP   (20 days average)August0.527979 GBP   (23 days average)September0.530557 GBP   (21 days average)October0.533008 GBP   (22 days average)November0.522907 GBP   (22 days average)December0.508208 GBP   (8 days average)

----------


## DFCarlson

> ^ no, I think it's the other way. The BoT is trying to defend the THB against speculators by making it strengthen and kill the speculators who have to cover their short position. It's a gamble. They did the same in 1997 and it failed. It went up to 24 just before it crashed.
> 
> It's also hurting massively Thai export companies so next year the earnings won't be good for the SET, and they also expect a "soft landing" in terms of growth, so it doesn't look good. Taxsin has been out for 3 months, and it's already cahos.
> 
> I am sure all the big fish are buying USD like crazy before the BoT stop defending it, that's why it might go up to 34 in the coming week.
> 
> This with a 50&#37; inflation rate in the last 3 years (at least in Bangkok), life is starting to be difficult here.
> 
> We are seriously OWNED. I think I will move to Canada soon.


 
Those who do not know history are doomed to repeat it! Helluva situation (for us American expats, anyway!)

I just went back to my Excel spreadsheet budget (3 year projection) and pumped in a 24 baht to the dollar exchange rate and found that I can still survive, although I won't be buying any houses here at that rate!

----------


## ADare

The predictions for the next 3 months show that the market seems to think that the U$D could go as low as 31.5 and not very much higher than it is now.

The good news it the GBP look stable around to 69-70 mark.

----------


## Butterfly

yeah, it's a disaster. If it wasn't for the expensive oil, I am not sure why would happen to the USD if oil was to be quoted in Euros.

----------


## DFCarlson

I just checked and the exchange rate has gone way up to 35.925 to the US dollar today.  It has been hovering betweeen 35.1 ansd 35.2 for the past few days.  What happened?

----------


## ADare

Don't know, I have just checked and it is showing at 35.37 :Confused:

----------


## DFCarlson

> Don't know, I have just checked and it is showing at 35.37


I don't know... Here's the link I use:

U.S. Dollar to Thai Baht Exchange Rate - Yahoo! Finance

If you can't get this to work then go to yahoo.com currency conversion

----------


## ADare

:Confused:  It is still the same on the site I check on :Confused:  

FXConverter - Currency Converter for 164 Currencies

----------


## DFCarlson

I can't explain the different rates from the two sites, but I'll wait a couple of days to see how things settle out.  If this is for real, it's really good news for me, and I hope the trend continues.


Meanwhile, the following article from today's Nation might help to explain things:


*Capital inflows subject to 30&#37; withholding*

Bank of Thailand to order financial institutions to withhold reserve requirement of 30 per cent of capital inflows, effective as of Tuesday to curb rising short-term inflows which push bath to a new 9-year high Monday at Baht35.09 to the US dollar.

Funds withheld from inflows for foreign direct investment can be returned as soon as evidence of the investment is provided.

Otherwise, all of the withheld funds can be returned after one year, as long as it can be documented that the initial funds remained in the country for the entire period. If the funds are withdrawn from the country in less than one year, only two-thirds of the amount withheld will be returned to investors.


http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...newsid=30021867

----------


## Butterfly

Confirmed that I heard that the THB is going down to 36 in less than 1 hour, what's going on ???

speculators have won ?

----------


## DrAndy

no, the government, in their wisdom, decided to put limits on foreign investments, so that money cannot be taken out in less than a year

this was meant to make the baht a bit weaker, but the stock market also reacted severely

----------


## Anonymous Coward

Bangkok Post had a story about a farang who wired money to a Thai bank account and was told 30&#37; had to stay in the account. As a result, he can't buy the house he transferred the money for.

So, how can I bring in money for a house without having 30% of it put in escrow for a year?

----------


## Begbie

Two lumps of US$19,999

----------


## Anonymous Coward

> Two lumps of US$19,999


Didn't realize that was the cut off. Easy to do.

Thanks.

----------

