Ukraine war mega thread

[bsnub]

[David48atTD]

[David48atTD]

Ukraine's army recaptured around "2,000 kilometres of territory" in September, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Saturday, adding that the Russian army was doing the right thing in fleeing the counteroffensive.
As Russia's war on Ukraine reaches a dramatic new phase in the conflict, FRANCE 24 is joined by Peter Zalmayev, Director of the Eurasian Democracy Initiative. Could this be a turning point in the war?

Mr. Zalmayev remains cautious, asserting "it's too soon to declare victory, it's too soon to celebrate it. When advances are so rapid, one has to proceed cautiously."
For him, over the next few days, it's just a question of whether the Ukrainian soldiers will "consolidate their gains or whether they will go further.
But already this is being declared as probably the most significant victory in this war after the battle for Kyiv."

[bsnub]

[bsnub]

Another sober, staggering thread on the history-changing events on the Eastern Front from a US military vet and academic.

The Collapse.

Conventional warfare is rare in the modern era, even rarer is when a portion of one army effectively collapses. That is currently the situation facing Russian forces between Kupyansk & Lyman. The situation is highly fluid & only those UAF personnel at the fore of this advance will know for certain what the extent of the advance is. As it stands, despite some increased Russian resistance in areas not impacted by the immediate breakthrough, the Russian forces have not reestablished a coherent defensive line. This doesn't mean the Russian army will melt away in its entirety. It's still a large, dangerous opponent whose capacity for defensive action demands respect even now. It does means that OpComEast has the initiative & Russia is suffering a defeat with strategic implications.

The current operation has the potential to result in the kind of foot race witnessed by the Allies in 1944 when the Wehrmacht withdrew from France. Halt lines may be determined by UAF logistics & strategic considerations, rather than effective Russian resistance. This kind of collapse engenders panic in an army. I've been asked repeatedly if this will spread to neighboring sectors along the eastern front, the answer is simply no one knows. The potential is there, but much will be determined by the people involved & their actions.

https://twitter.com/RealCynicalFox/s...93013949591552

[David48atTD]

^ While I'm jubilant supporter of the recent actions on the Battlefield, be mindfull of another quote in that Tweet ...

Patrick Fox
@RealCynicalFox
12h
The Collapse: Conventional warfare is rare in the modern era, even rarer is when a portion of one army effectively collapses. That is currently the situation facing Russian forces between Kupyansk & Lyman.

1/
The situation is highly fluid & only those UAF personnel at the fore of this advance will know for certain what the extent of the advance is.
As it stands, despite some increased Russian resistance in areas not impacted by the immediate breakthrough, the Russian forces have not reestablished a coherent defensive line.

2/
This doesn't mean the Russian army will melt away in its entirety.
It's still a large, dangerous opponent whose capacity for defensive action demands respect even now.
It does means that OpComEast has the initiative & Russia is suffering a defeat with strategic implications.

[panama hat]

Just because they speak Russian does not make them Russians.

You speak English but you aren't . . . oh, in your case you are and your opinions clearly support that.

Snakeyes speaks English but he isn't English
Pickel speaks English but isn't English
OhWoe speaks English (kind of) but isn't English
I speak English and am definitely and certainly not English
etc ad nauseum

Like it or not fellas

Nah, in your case it's 'believe it or not' and the resounding answer is 'not'

[bsnub]

This doesn't mean the Russian army will melt away in its entirety.
It's still a large, dangerous opponent whose capacity for defensive action demands respect even now.
It does means that OpComEast has the initiative & Russia is suffering a defeat with strategic implications.

This is true, but you must consider the moral factor. There are loads of intercepted phone calls from Russian soldiers who are angry for being duped into fighting this war. For being basically dumped at the front and being told to fight. Many of them have not been paid the money they were promised and have been trapped at the front since the war started, in many cases they are staying in makeshift hobo camps basically and the conditions are bleak. They may have been able to survive in those types of places during the summer, but we are heading into the cold, wet season in Ukraine.

The situation is not sustainable and now on top of all of that they are being faced with an advancing army who is effectively employing combined arms tactics to create the perfect storm. This why we are seeing tons of abandoned equipment on the battlefield. Those that did not die turned and ran.

[David48atTD]

^ Yep, mostly agree.

"conditions are bleak" ... for both sides, but the Ukrainians have hope, courage and the National Spirit (plus a shitload of HIMARS) on their side.

God be with them and their cause.

(and I'm not a God botherer ... but on this one occasion, I'll digress)

[misskit]

‘Coast Defense Flotilla’: Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Mauled in 200 Days of Ukraine War

A few days after Russia launched its invasion of neighboring Ukraine, Russian conscript sailor Mark Tarasov wrote to his mother in St. Petersburg from aboard the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship, the Moskva.


“I'm fine. Alive. We are all good. I don’t really know what is happening in the world right now, only in basic terms,” he wrote, according to a photograph posted by his mother on social media network VKontakte.


“I can't wait to get back [home], nine more months left.”


Less than two months later, a pair of Ukrainian anti-ship missiles struck the Moskva in the seas off Odesa, causing a large fire. Eventually, the ship sank.


The sinking of the Moskva, the pride of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, was the first in a series of symbolic setbacks suffered by the fleet in the 200 days since Moscow ordered troops into its pro-Western neighbor.


Defeats at sea and on land have significantly reduced the fleet’s offensive capabilities and — according to reports — led to the removal of its commander.


One Western official reportedly said last month that, as a result of its losses, the Black Sea Fleet was now little more than a “coast defense flotilla.”


Particularly noticeable has been the destruction of men and equipment in Ukrainian attacks, including at least 10 naval vessels, according to Oryx, an intelligence blog that tracks Russian military losses.


“With the loss of the Moskva, hundreds of marines and a number of other ships, the fleet likely no longer has the combat power to support fully cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea,” said independent military analyst Pavel Luzin.

A Ukrainian missile sank the landing ship Saratov in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian port city of Berdyansk in March and Ukraine has since damaged or destroyed five patrol boats, according to Oryx.


The rescue tug Vassily Bekh was sunk in June as it delivered weapons and personnel to Snake Island, the strategic outpost which was later abandoned by Russian forces.


Perhaps most symbolically, the Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol has been attacked not once — but twice.


An apparent drone strike in late July resulted in six casualties and the cancellation of planned Navy Day celebrations. Three weeks later, another drone hit the same building, sending a plume of black smoke into the sky.


In addition to the loss of naval vessels, the Black Sea Fleet has also seen the destruction of other military equipment and a high level of personnel casualties.


More than half of the Black Sea Fleet’s combat jets were put out of use last month when a series of explosions took place at Saki air base in Crimea, according to an assessment by an unidentified Western official quoted by Reuters.

And the Black Sea Fleet’s specialized 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade reportedly took hundreds of casualties when it fought as part of Russian forces attacking the Ukrainian city of Mariupol.


As of July, the brigade had lost over 66 people, according to news outlet Krym Realii, an affiliate of U.S.-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, while Ukrainian intelligence claimed last month the figure was closer to 300. Among the brigade’s dead was its commander Colonel Alexei Sharov, reportedly killed on March 22 in Mariupol.


Designed to project Russian naval power over former Soviet countries and the eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea Fleet’s frailties have been brutally exposed since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February,


Analysts said one reason for the fleet's poor performance was that many of its ships and systems were in need of modernization.


While smaller than Russia’s Baltic or Pacific fleets, the pre-war Black Sea Fleet consisted of about 50 vessels, around 4,000 marines and a small air wing.


Its mounting losses of men and materiel were likely a factor in Moscow’s recent decision to shake up the fleet’s military command, experts said.


Igor Osipov was removed as Black Sea Fleet commander and replaced by Vice Admiral Victor Sokolov last month, according to state-run media. Although the fleet initially denied the reports, Sokolov, who was the deputy commander of Russia’s Northern Fleet between 2013 and 2020, later confirmed his appointment.


“Poor preparation, apparent carelessness, and a general lackadaisical attitude of the Black Sea Fleet likely led” to Osipov’s firing, Michael Kofman, director of the Russia Studies Program for the Virginia-based think tank CNA, told Politico last month.

While Sokolov may introduce a new approach, his options are limited because Russia has no way to reinforce the fleet after Turkey closed the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to Russian warships in March.


“The problem is that not all ships in the Black Sea Fleet are there,” naval analyst Ben Claremont told The Moscow Times, adding that a key absence was the Admiral Grigorovich, a modern frigate launched in 2014.


Russia is particularly spread thin in terms of modern air defense capabilities in the area, analysts said, with regular reports of Ukrainian drones over the Crimean peninsula.


With reductions to its strength and difficulties with reinforcements, the Black Sea Fleet is left with few significant roles apart from blockading Ukrainian ports and continuing to launch cruise missiles many dozens of miles from the Ukrainian coast.


Many of the almost 4,000 missiles fired into Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion have been Kalibr ship-launched missiles fired from Russian frigates and submarines in the Black Sea.


Sailors with the Black Sea Fleet and their relatives declined to comment on the travails of one of Russia’s most prestigious naval units when contacted by The Moscow Times.


“My commander won’t allow it,” said one sailor in response to a message.


But the loss of the flagship Moskva and the fate of its crew — which Moscow initially said had been fully evacuated before its sinking — remains a particularly sensitive topic.

Russia’s Defense Ministry later said one crew member was killed and 27 were missing — but the families of at least five sailors on the ship have reportedly received death notices.


Among those confirmed dead is cook Yegor Shkrebets, whose family finally received an official death certificate 110 days after the sinking.


“I have a lot of questions when it comes to the rescue operation. I doubt it was carried out as it should have been,” Shkrebets’s father told The Moscow Times.


Ulyana Tarasova, whose son Mark Tarasov was on the Moskva when it went down, did not reply to messages from The Moscow Times, but social media posts suggest she is still awaiting confirmation of what happened to her child.


Tarasova voiced her anger in April about the seemingly contradictory nature of Moscow's war slogan, “We don't give up on our own.”


“‘We don't give up on our own’ definitely doesn’t apply to the Black Sea Fleet,” the bereaved mother posted on VKontakte.

‘Coast Defense Flotilla’: Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Mauled in 200 Days of Ukraine War - The Moscow Times

[bsnub]

"conditions are bleak" ... for both sides.

Yes and no. The Ukrainians can rotate troops out and in many cases have a friendly line behind them where they can take shelter, get food, bathe etc. The Russians do not, and that will become even more, so the case as the weather gets colder.

[sabang]

Jeez, seems like just yesterday I was reading about the failed Kherson offensive and the heavy casualties being taken, and the failed Special forces operation against the nuclear plant. I must have been dreaming.

[HermantheGerman]

Jeez, seems like just yesterday I was reading about the failed Kherson offensive and the heavy casualties being taken, and the failed Special forces operation against the nuclear plant. I must have been dreaming.

Are you trying to tell us something?

Maybe that you are a failure?

[Takeovers]

Jeez, seems like just yesterday I was reading about the failed Kherson offensive and the heavy casualties being taken,

The Kherson offensive was put on temporary hold. Ukraine decided to devastate russian troops in the Kopyansk and Izium region, taking a railroad junction that was essential for russian resupply in the wider region.

Not yet clear if Kherson will get back on the menu or Ukraine decides to overrun Donetsk first instead. Russians in Kherson are going nowhere in the meantime. Except possibly on foot without equipment.

and the failed Special forces operation against the nuclear plant.

A russian fake, very poorly executed even for Russian standards.

[sabang]

Nope. There was a failed Special forces operation.

[bsnub]

Jeez, seems like just yesterday I was reading about the failed Kherson offensive and the heavy casualties being taken, and the failed Special forces operation against the nuclear plant. I must have been dreaming.

You live in a fantasy world.

The Kherson offensive was put on temporary hold.

That is incorrect, and the Kherson offensive is ongoing. In fact, the Ukrainians have seized more territory in the last couple of days.

DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine

Nope. There was a failed Special forces operation.

What a indoctrinated lemming.

[sabang]

Anyway, the gains made in E.Kharkiv are impressive, must read like shit there in Russia so I am not surprised they are being bigged up to the max. So I won't spoil your fun any more.

[bsnub]

One of the big factors in Ukraine's success is the Excalibur guided artillery shell. This video is an excellent explanation of it capabilities...

[bsnub]

T-80 tanks that the Russians abandoned. Basically, they slipped into civilian clothes and rode bicycles out of the area. Ukraine has acquired heaps of new kit during this offensive.

[hallelujah]

Keep rubbing it in, snubby.

[bsnub]

Keep rubbing it in, snubby.

I can't help it mate, I am so pissed up right now, but I am enjoying the taste of Sabang's tears.

Anyway, I am about to fuck off to bed.

Today has been a good day.

[Takeovers]

A map of the region, before and after. Taken from Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

The new white area is vacated by the Russians but not yet taken over by Ukraine forces. The blue area is newly taken by Ukraine.

There may be one small town, Kozacha Lopan, near the border with a rail link into Russia not yet vacated.

[harrybarracuda]

Anyway, the gains made in E.Kharkiv are impressive, must read like shit there in Russia so I am not surprised they are being bigged up to the max. So I won't spoil your fun any more.

Wossup, don't they mention them on your endless shit stream of propaganda?

[Takeovers]

There may be one small town, Kozacha Lopan, near the border with a rail link into Russia not yet vacated.

No more. The place has been liberated by Ukraine forces. No more train link for logistics.

[OhOh]

Ukraine's army recaptured around "2,000 kilometres of territory"

Ukraine's land area is 604,000 km².
2,000 km², is 0.33%, of Ukraine land area.

Are a few towns, farmland, forest and rivers important militarily? Hardly.

Slightly larger than London, which is 1,600 km². The M25 motorway around London takes less than 2 hours to drive around, subject to traffic jams.