Chinese Whispers

[Shutree]

The official media in China mostly fail to report accurately or at all on some of the biggest issues in the world's second largest economy. What happens in China affects other economies globally, not only the 'butterfly effect', you can see it directly for example in the current US-China trade talks.

Probably the biggest question at the moment is: Who is in charge?

Every month, China's 24 person politburo has a meeting and that is almost always reported in state media. In May, there were no reports and there is no evidence that a meeting happened, which is extremely unusual. What seems to have happened is that on or about May 15th there was a meeting of the politburo standing committee, a small group of about 7 of the most senior figures. Rumour has it that the standing committee invited some extra attendees including Hu Jintao, who most people remember being dragged offstage behind Xi at the 20th National Congress in 2022. Hu has been out of the public eye since then. So what was going on? Some sources have described it as a 'struggle meeting' where Xi Jinping was challenged over his leadership, particularly over the economy and international relations.

A few days later, Xi went on an inspection tour in Henan, This was mostly notable for who was not there, Cai Qi, the man who is effectively Xi's chief of staff and who always goes everywhere with him. After Henan, Xi was not seen for a couple of weeks, which is exceptional. People noted that China Daily cut their usual Xi thought bulletins.

Xi was invisible until he popped up to meet Lukashenko. Most unusually their meeting was in the Zhongnanhai compound where the most senior leaders live. Pictures showed a significant number of young men in dark suits about the place, leading to speculation that Xi was under house arrest.

Meanwhile, there have been a few unexplained arrests and at least one surprise death, all suggesting that the leadership situation is in flux.

The man tipped as future leader is Wang Yang. He was in the top levels of government until he officially retired. He is described as 'liberal' within the context of Chinese government, so his appointment would signal a huge change. However, Wang isn't leaping at the opportunity and is said to have a number of preconditions.

How long this will take to play out is anybody's guess. My guess is that it will be sooner rather than later. China wants these trade talks to move forward.

[39TG]

The bash China youtube channels have been pondering what's happening to Xi. Some reports have been celebrating his demise.

[Shutree]

The bash China youtube channels have been pondering what's happening to Xi. Some reports have been celebrating his demise.

YT is awash with speculation. Most of it traces back to just a couple of sources, whose stories have been repeated, sometimes embellished to create a giant echo chamber. The few pieces of the puzzle we can see suggest something is happening and it will be significant. There are so many personal interests that will be affected that a peaceful transition is probably the best we can hope for.

[harrybarracuda]

Didn't he have a chat with the orange turd only last week?

[Shutree]

Didn't he have a chat with the orange turd only last week?

Phone calls with various leaders, yes. Could be from any room anywhere and we don't now now who is there offering guidance. It is his lack of visibility that is interesting.

[Shutree]

Li Keqiang died at Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to the Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine in Pudong at 00:10 CST on 27 October 2023 at the age of 68 after a heart attack the previous day. The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that the heart attack occurred as he swam at Shanghai's Dongjiao State Guest Hotel. The Standard reported that long-term use of anti-rejection drugs following a liver transplant were a contributing factor. SCMP reported that he had also undergone coronary artery bypass surgery. (Wiki)

At that time, some people pointed out that Li wasn't generally known to have had a history of heart illness. They questioned why he was taken to a second tier Chinese hospital in a city which has top surgeons elsewhere. His wife requested a full autopsy, but he was quickly cremated without one.

Two years on, a whistleblower has claimed that he was part of an elite, government run, six-person hit squad that had assassinated Li. He claimed this was done by spiking Li's water with an odourless, colourless poison that creates symptoms similar to a heart attack. He named names, identifying each of the six team members, himself included.

李克强被谋杀细节遭曝光 凶手呼之欲出？

Why now?

This looks like an attack on Xi. It seems like someone isn't willing to let him transition quietly out of power.

[Shutree]

What is the population of China? Officially, about 1.4 billion, declining just a little in each of the past three years.



There is a general problem with credibility of Chinese statistics and this number is probably not accurate.

One Japanese study looked at salt consumption to estimate the true number. I don't think much of that study, too many variables and too many assumptions.

Another study looked at the number of BCG vaccine doses. This is a mandatory vaccination for children in China. Again there are some assumptions made. The most interesting thing about this study is that the Chinese quickly stopped publishing the data.

There are good reasons for wanting to know the approximate population. How big is the consumer market? How big is the workforce? How can a centrally planned economy plan if it does not now how many people to plan for? How many schools and hospitals are needed?

Best guess: The people who have researched the subject come up with final numbers around 800,000. A big number to be sure, still way smaller than the official stats.

[Shutree]

What deal was it that the US and China agreed this week and why is China so quiet about it?
Rumour is that the deal will go some way to opening Chinese markets to foreign corporations as well as increasing access to rare earth metals. Trump only mentioned it briefly and China not at all.
This could be very significant news.

[39TG]

The better YT material I have seen also tends to give a figure around 800,000,000. The population has apparently been falling even before Covid appeared. This makes sense because raising children in China is really expensive relative to incomes compared to other countries.

[Shutree]

800,000,000

Yes. I lost a few zeroes.
Some people say the official number must be more or less correct, about 1.4 billion. On the other hand, some other people have put a lot of effort into trying to get an accurate number. All of which begs the questions how could the official number be so wrong and why?
I have no real idea except that China has a fairly basic tax system. It is post-Mao, back in his day the party owned everything, so taxes were irrelevant. The current system collects some local taxes, like local businesses, and some national taxes, like Customs duties. In theory these revenues are split 50/50 between central and local governments. Which is a problem because local governments carry about 70% of the expenditure. Possibly a local administration with more people having their 'hukou' household registration in the area might get a bigger handout from central government. This would give them a reason to overstate their populations. I'd be interested to understand it better.
This imbalance between local government income and expenditure was a root cause of the property crisis. Local governments needed cash and they realized that they could get this by selling land to property developers. Then they realized that they could borrow money from banks, using future land sales as security. Then the bubble burst, developers stopped buying land, the local governments couldn't meet their debt obligations, so now they have no money for their daily operations and no money to meet their interest payments. It's a mess.

[Shutree]

Rumour, it is never news, even for simple events, has it that Qi Xin, mother of Xi Jinping, has passed away. No surprise if true, she is close to 100 years old.
As an original revolutionary and mother of the supreme leader we might expect something like a state funeral. Or not, if Xi's star is in decline.

[misskit]

Xi Jinping's Public Absence Fuels Speculation Amid Power Shake-Up In China

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s unusual disappearance from public view between May 21 and June 5 this year has sparked intense speculation about internal political adjustments at the highest levels of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), CNN-News18 has learnt.


According to multiple media reports, Xi’s sudden absence from official engagements, state media coverage, and high-profile diplomatic meetings coincided with a wave of top-level purges in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and mounting economic challenges in core sectors of China’s economy. Observers suggest that behind closed doors, Beijing is undergoing a quiet yet significant recalibration of power.

Notably, Xi was absent from the front pages of People’s Daily and Xinhua—the CCP’s primary propaganda outlets—from June 2 to 5, a rare break from his consistent daily coverage since 2017. During this period, high-stakes diplomatic meetings with foreign delegations were instead handled by Premier Li Qiang and Vice Premier He Lifeng, suggesting a temporary shift in the presentation of state leadership.

In his absence, public appearances by second-tier party officials and respected party elders have added to speculation that the internal command structure of the CCP is being reworked, possibly to stabilise growing dissent or manage factional tensions.


The People’s Liberation Army has also seen sweeping changes. Since early 2023, key figures such as General He Weidong (Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission), General Miao Hua (Chief of Political Work), and General Lin Xiangyang (Commander of the Eastern Theater Command) have been removed. The PLA’s powerful Rocket Force and Western Theater Command have also undergone major leadership reshuffles, hinting at systemic unease within China’s military hierarchy.


On June 6, a constitutional loyalty ceremony organised by China’s State Council—attended by over 50 ministers and top department heads—was conspicuously held without Xi’s presence. Meanwhile, at international forums, delegates were seen reciting “Xi Jinping Thought" in the President’s absence—a symbolic move that drew attention to his physical nonappearance even as his ideological presence was reinforced.

Analysts are divided over the implications: some view this as a calculated pause by Xi to recalibrate political structures amid crisis, while others suggest potential internal challenges to his authority, following a year of economic setbacks and increased scrutiny of his centralisation of power.


While the Chinese government has offered no explanation for Xi’s reduced public visibility, the convergence of diplomatic stand-ins, military purges, and symbolic omissions has led many to believe that China’s political landscape may be entering a sensitive transitional phase.

Xi Jinping'''s Public Absence Fuels Speculation Amid Power Shake-Up In China | Exclusive | World News - News18

[39TG]

I think he's history. His colleagues know he's been an absolute disaster. He's considerably worse than Mr. Trump. China had a great future in front of it and under President Xi made one wrong turn after another. It's really sad for the Chinese people.

[Shutree]

I think he's history. His colleagues know he's been an absolute disaster. He's considerably worse than Mr. Trump. China had a great future in front of it and under President Xi made one wrong turn after another. It's really sad for the Chinese people.

Change is certainly in the air.
Every year the CCP have what they like to call a 'conclave' in Beidaihe. Usually it takes place late July or early August. This year it seems to be already under way, judging by the highly visible police presence, the blocking of all hotel rooms and the unavailability of train tickets on apps up until July 7th. Beidaihe is where a lot of big decisions get made before they are presented to the officials tasked with rubber stamping them. It looks like there is a sense of urgency.

[Molle]

It looks like there is a sense of urgency.

Xi had a stroke?

[Shutree]

Xi had a stroke?

That was rumoured some time back, a mini-stroke, whatever that means. People pointed to his pictures beside Putin in Moscow with his hairline on the back of his neck being pointed to as evidence of some medical procedure. All a bit vague, as usual.

[david44]

Xi had a stroke?

Haven't we all , mei guanxi back on topic a nuclear power murders randomly and leader is not transparently chosen by the led a recipe for disaster for the Chinese people and the world , environmental impacts trickling down the mekong to us just one example.

[harrybarracuda]

Well he was out and about yesterday.

[Shutree]

Looks like he'll not be at the big BRICS conference, which is a bit of a surprise considering how important this is.

[david44]

Xi ta Bric cums to mind, they are all murderous unakhvntable commies with capitalist proclivities up with which I will not put.
1 and half billion Chinese ae their daily victims plus the neo colonialist debt trap of Belt and Road just as France,GB, Portugal Spain Belgiun Holland did before

[Shutree]

BRICS is a big deal, the member countries now have over half of the world's population and China has long seen this project as a way to set up the Remnimbi as an alternative reserve currency. It is Xi's biggest opportunity for exposure on the world stage. He has never missed a BRICS meeting, until now.
The wilder rumours have it that Xi cannot leave China because those in charge think he might not return. Rumours started when Xi went to Moscow without Mrs. Xi, Peng Liyuan. Then, on July 1st, Ma Xingrui was relieved of all responsibilities. Ma is a Xi loyalist, he and Peng go way back, they both come from Shandong. The suggestion now is that Ma was caught plotting an escape plan for Mr. and Mrs. Xi.
If there is any truth at all to these rumours then it should not be too long before a leadership change is announced.

[Shutree]

BRICS is a big deal, the member countries now have over half of the world's population and China has long seen this project as a way to set up the Renminbi as an alternative reserve currency. It is Xi's biggest opportunity for exposure on the world stage. He has never missed a BRICS meeting, until now.
The wilder rumours have it that Xi cannot leave China because those in charge think he might not return. Rumours started when Xi went to Moscow without Mrs. Xi, Peng Liyuan. Then, on July 1st, Ma Xingrui was relieved of all responsibilities. Ma is a Xi loyalist, he and Peng go way back, they both come from Shandong. The suggestion now is that Ma was caught plotting an escape plan for Mr. and Mrs. Xi.
If there is any truth at all to these rumours then it should not be too long before a leadership change is announced.

[baldrick]

more australian content

[Shutree]

We are a few days away from the CCP's Fourth Plenum.
Will Xi even be there?
Rumours are that Wang Yang will succeed him on an interim basis while the competing factions try to agree a way forward.
Xi, meanwhile, might or might not have had another stroke and be lying in a hospital bed somewhere.

[NamPikToot]

its like Russia in the 70s and 80s