Ukraine war mega thread

[NamPikToot]

FFS how many times do I have to point out this ain't about now. Are you deliberately being dense or just being a mercan

[harrybarracuda]

Whatever else you think of Russia they have a history of adapting

Can you tell us more about this? It sounds rather hilarious.

[NamPikToot]

Oh here's Hazza with his finger on the pulse of well just about anything he choses to comment on here

[harrybarracuda]

Oh here's Hazza with his finger on the pulse of well just about anything he choses to comment on here

I asked you a question.

If you can't answer it, "I don't know, I just made it up" is perfectly acceptable.

[NamPikToot]

^ Over the years, with repeated attempts at invasion all repelled, developing a space programme, a nuclear programme just what is your view on the Russians - they have had some of the foremost scientists. You though Hazza are a raging racist and blinkered muppet who has spent 13 years on here posting up a storm with your one sided views and refuse to acknowledge any good in anything that doesn't pass this Hazza test

[OhOh]

Some history of previous failures, brought up to today's events.

Joe Biden’s Demand of ‘Unconditional Surrender’ to Russia Will Fail

by Douglas Macgregor | Aug 29, 2022

"When the Combined Chiefs of Staff Conference in Casablanca, Morocco ended in January 1943, President Franklin Roosevelt and Prime Minister Sir Winston Churchill held a press conference. Toward the end of the press conference, FDR told the correspondents that the Allies were determined to demand the “Unconditional Surrender” of Germany, Italy, and Japan.

FDR later said that Ulysses S. Grant’s 1862 ultimatum of “Unconditional Surrender” to the Confederate garrison holding Fort Donelson in Tennessee was his inspiration. Grant was trying to speed the capture of an isolated fortress and avoid unnecessary casualties on all sides.

But FDR’s policy of “Unconditional Surrender” during a destructive global war was unwise and costly. It stiffened German resistance, lengthened the war, pushed violence to its utmost limits and rejected any resolution to the conflict other than the opponents’ complete annihilation—the kind of result that Stalin and Hitler called “victory.” Sadly, there is no evidence that anyone in the White House or the Pentagon studied the policy’s psychological impact on the German or Japanese peoples before it was announced.

Biden’s speech on March 26 in Warsaw removed any doubt in Moscow’s governing circles that Washington’s goal was Russia’s destruction: “…that’s why I came to Europe again this week with a clear and determined message for NATO…—we must commit now to be in this fight for the long haul…and for the years and decades to come.” In case there was any lingering uncertainty, Biden added, “For God’s sake this man [Vladimir Putin] cannot remain in power.”

President Biden’s policy in Ukraine seems equally thoughtless and it’s having a similar effect on Russia and the course of the war. Since Biden delivered his speech, Russian control of Ukrainian territory has jumped from 5 to and estimated 22%, the same portion that provides Ukraine with 85% of its GNP. Moscow abandoned the “fight and negotiate strategy” of the “Special Operation” for a new one: extend permanent Russian control over the Russian-speaking areas in Eastern Ukraine from Kharkov to Odessa. When the fighting ends, Moscow will likely control roughly 30-35% of Ukraine’s former territory.

Meanwhile, Moscow mastered Washington’s economic sanctions and, as James Rickards notes, continues to reduce the supply of natural gas to Western Europe with has resulted in Germany, Europe’s economic powerhouse, relying on its energy reserves as winter approaches and Russian supplies dwindle.
At home, inflation will cost the average American household more than $5,200 this year. A few days ago, Dr. Ron Paul described the situation: “Inflation is a tax on middle class and poor Americans. The wealthy—like those who run Raytheon and Lockheed Martin—always get the new money first before prices go up. The rest of us watch as the dollar buys less and less.” As Washington celebrates the commitment of more and more dollars to fighting Russia in Ukraine, the rest of America struggles with open borders and rising criminality in its major cities.

The timeless lesson is that emotionally charged speeches should never frame national policy, but Biden is in good company. Lyndon Johnson talked himself into a similar dilemma in Vietnam when he insisted, “If we are driven from the field in Viet-Nam, then no nation can ever again have the same confidence in American promise, or in American protection.” Eventually, LBJ was trapped by his own rhetoric.

He discovered what Biden is discovering in Ukraine. LBJ found out the hard way that the North Vietnamese were far more committed to “victory at any cost” than were the American people. In the aftermath of North Vietnam’s Tet Offensive, American support for the war dropped dramatically and the specter of defeat plunged the Johnson administration into a crisis of legitimacy.

Biden has forgotten that a lost war, even a proxy war, weakens the right to rule of those who govern the nation. The Biden administration is ignoring the fundamental truth that proxy wars like the one Washington is waging against Russia in Ukraine are not exempt from war’s iron discipline: all wars put national existence, power and prestige at risk, making victory or defeat the only real options.
Like the North Vietnamese, Moscow is far more committed to victory in Ukraine than Washington or its European allies. Once again, U.S. support for ongoing operations in Ukraine is razor thin and growing concern in the U.S. and Europe is that Biden’s unlimited war aims could involve the use of nuclear weapons to reverse Ukraine’s defeat.

Of course, the idea of using nuclear weapons in this way runs counter to Eisenhower’s fundamental point that nuclear weapons are weapons of last resort in defense of the nation. Whether tactical or strategic, nuclear weapons have no other rational application in modern warfare. Frankly, their use for any other purpose is suicidal. Anyone inside the Biden administration or Congress who is considering their use in Ukraine should be locked up.

The price of gratuitous self-righteousness is always high. Moscow will never again allow Washington and its allies to transform Eastern Ukraine into a launching pad for offensive military operations against Russia proper. Washington’s of the world and the realities of twenty-first century warfare Russia’s control of Eastern Ukraine.

President Biden’s insistence that Russia must be defeated regardless of how long it takes or how much it costs the Americans, Ukrainians, and NATO members is worse than FDR’s unconditional surrender demand. It endangers the American people, and eventually, if carried to its logical extreme, this policy stance will induce our allies and strategic partners to with Washington."

https://libertarianinstitute.org/art...sia-will-fail/

[Takeovers]

just what is your view on the Russians - they have had some of the foremost scientists.

Many of the foremost scientists and engineers of the Soviet space program were Ukrainian. Fits that after the downfall of the Soviet Union and independence of Ukraine it all went down the drain. Roskosmos is just a shell, driven by inertia.

[Takeovers]

Joe Biden’s Demand of ‘Unconditional Surrender’ to Russia Will Fail

Demanding to give up the goals of a war of aggression is not demanding "unconditional surrender".

[NamPikToot]

^ Grunted, but their science wasn't limited to space programmes and went back before the cold war. I'm not trying to be an apologist, just that there is quite a lot of one sided anti Russian rhetoric on here and they as a people ain't all bad or as backward as many on here paint them to be - quite frankly the polarisation on many threads is getting down right tedious.

[harrybarracuda]

^ Over the years, with repeated attempts at invasion all repelled, developing a space programme, a nuclear programme just what is your view on the Russians - they have had some of the foremost scientists. You though Hazza are a raging racist and blinkered muppet who has spent 13 years on here posting up a storm with your one sided views and refuse to acknowledge any good in anything that doesn't pass this Hazza test

Most of their significant achievements - military or technological - relied on assistance from the West, either voluntarily, as in WWII, or forced because they had a massive intelligence service operating around the world.

Their nuclear programme and their space programme mostly relied on technology stolen from the West.

They beat the US into space because Eisenhower wouldn't use Von Braun's tested rocket that was being developed as military technology and instead used an untried Vanguard rocket which didn't work.

The nicked their nuclear programme off the US.

And what "repeated invasions" are you talking about?

Realistically they've scored some propaganda victories but I don't recall any world-shattering technological innovations that they've come up with, which isn't to say that there haven't been Russian scientists who've come up with successful inventions over time. But pretty well every country has examples of that.

Keep going though, show us how they've "adapted".

You're making no fucking sense really. Did Hoohoo hack your password or something?

And stop trying to shoot the messenger, answer the fucking question.

[harrybarracuda]

^ Grunted, but their science wasn't limited to space programmes and went back before the cold war.

Their big leaps in rocket technology came from the same place the US got theirs: Germany.

I'm not trying to be an apologist, just that there is quite a lot of one sided anti Russian rhetoric on here and they as a people ain't all bad or as backward as many on here paint them to be - quite frankly the polarisation on many threads is getting down right tedious.

Perhaps you haven't noticed that the wanketeers are always telling everyone how brilliant Russia is, when the truth is their military technology is proving to be quite shit in this conflict.

I think snubby is right than if it came to it, and providing nukes were off the table, the US and NATO would piss all over Putin's strawberries with great ease.

The problem with the nuclear technology is not one of sophistication, but sheer brute force. The two sides have so many there is no way they could all be stopped and it would be a humanitarian and environmental catastrophe if it got to that.

I think most people do not blame Russians for this conflict, and when they blame Russia, what they mean is the person that is pulling the strings and has had the country by the throat for decades: Putin.

There is no polarisation here, this is the "both sides" nonsense that is key to the propagandist, a feeble attempt to share the blame that lies with one.

Putin started this war, and he could stop it at any time.

If he withdrew now, Ukraine would not be a failed state. He could take his little armed militia with him, if they like Russia that much there is plenty of room.

[bsnub]

Excellent posts Harry and well said.

[Norton]

Excellent posts Harry and well said.

... ...

[bsnub]

Not sure where to post this, put it might as well be here. Mikhail Gorbachev died after a long illness, it was reported. I recently read a quote of his regarding the introduction of glasnost" (openness) and "perestroika" (restructuring)...

"I began these reforms and my guiding stars were freedom and democracy, without bloodshed. So the people would cease to be a herd led by a shepherd. They would become citizens," he later said.

Sadly, the Russian are still a herd being led.

[misskit]

^Gorbachev’s death is on the RIP Famous Person thread.
It includes a history lesson.

https://teakdoor.com/famous-threads/...ml#post4426700 (The RIP Famous Person Thread)

[Hugh Cow]

Biden has forgotten that a lost war, even a proxy war, weakens the right to rule of those who govern the nation. The Biden administration is ignoring the fundamental truth that proxy wars like the one Washington is waging against Russia in Ukraine are not exempt from war’s iron discipline: all wars put national existence, power and prestige at risk, making victory or defeat the only real options.
Like the North Vietnamese, Moscow is far more committed to victory in Ukraine than Washington or its European allies. Once again, U.S. support for ongoing operations in Ukraine is razor thin and growing concern in the U.S. and Europe is that Biden’s unlimited war aims could involve the use of nuclear weapons to reverse Ukraine’s defeat.

Of course, the idea of using nuclear weapons in this way runs counter to Eisenhower’s fundamental point that nuclear weapons are weapons of last resort in defense of the nation. Whether tactical or strategic, nuclear weapons have no other rational application in modern warfare. Frankly, their use for any other purpose is suicidal. Anyone inside the Biden administration or Congress who is considering their use in Ukraine should be locked up.

The price of gratuitous self-righteousness is always high. Moscow will never again allow Washington and its allies to transform Eastern Ukraine into a launching pad for offensive military operations against Russia proper. Washington’s of the world and the realities of twenty-first century warfare Russia’s control of Eastern Ukraine.

And just remind me when washington last used eastern ukraine as a launching pad for offensive military operations against Russia.

Oh and who was it that threatened theuse of nuclear weapons? Biden or Putin?

OhOh reprints shite that is only suitable in a country where the govt has complete control over the media say Russia maybe?

Pro putin propagandah is bad enough but outright lies that only an idiot as gullible as you would believe. Ok, there are two others that come to mind. You should be banned from everything other than the doghouse, where all your posts belong.
You are a classic example of Pavlov's Dog. Like a vacuous drone you have been conditioned to salivate over every word from Putin or Xi.

[panama hat]

repeated attempts at invasion all repelled

Russia they have a history of adapting

WTF have you been drinking aside from your usual rotgut?

Jaysus, stick to the EPL threads.

Oh here's Hazza with his finger on the pulse of well just about anything he choses to comment on here

At least he doesn't post uninformed bullshit like you do

There is no polarisation here, this is the "both sides" nonsense that is key to the propagandist, a feeble attempt to share the blame that lies with one.

Putin started this war, and he could stop it at any time.

[NamPikToot]

^ boring

[misskit]

We forced them well back

Ukrainian missile strikes, shelling and reports of advances near the Russian-held city of Kherson on Tuesday suggested that a Ukrainian offensive in the south of the country was gathering steam.


In its morning update, the president's office in Kyiv said “heavy fighting” was “taking place in almost the entire territory of the Kherson region.”


While Russian officials sought to downplay the Ukrainian assault, it appeared that Ukrainian forces were pushing forward, with strikes on the strategic Antonivskyi Bridge across the Dnipro River and gunfire and explosions in Kherson itself.


In the town of Bereznehuvate — near the frontlines 70 kilometers north of Kherson — reporters from AFP saw soldiers resting by the roadside and heard artillery fire.


"We forced them well back," said infantryman Victor, in his 60s, who declined to give a surname. But his commander Oleksandr predicted the fight to retake Kherson will be "long and complicated."


Videos shared by pro-Kremlin Telegram channels showed evidence of Ukrainian HIMARS missile systems operating near Kherson and news outlets reported gunfire Tuesday morning in Kherson, which was seized by Russian forces shortly after the start of the invasion.


“It’s very loud,” one Kherson resident told The Financial Times. “For the second day there hasn’t even been an hour break where something did not explode or bang,” she said. “It’s scary, but at the same time joyful when you hear the sound of explosions.”


It was not immediately possible to confirm who was involved in the shooting in Kherson, but Russian-installed official Kirill Stremousov said in comments to state-run TASS news agency Tuesday that Ukrainian spies and saboteurs were killed in the city.

Amid reports of a Ukrainian strike on the Antonivskyi Bridge, a key supply route into Kherson, Ukraine said that it could target any crossing over the Dnipro River.


Natalia Humeniuk, a Ukrainian military spokesperson, told a briefing that Kyiv could destroy any pontoon bridge or ferry across the river, Reuters reported.


"The whole area where such a crossing can be built is under our fire control and [any new structure] will be hit," she said, according to Reuters.


Despite the statements by Ukrainian officials and evidence of increased fighting, Moscow played down the threat posed by a major Ukrainian offensive.


"The special military operation is continuing methodically according to plans that are in place," President Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters during a daily briefing Tuesday. "All objectives will be achieved."


And Russian-appointed officials in the region claimed that there were no signs of a Ukrainian military advance.


“The assault and victory of Ukraine's Armed Forces is only on Telegram channels,” Katerina Gubareva, the deputy head of the Russian appointed administration to Kherson, posted on messaging app Telegram.


Flanked by the Dnipro river to the east and south, as well as the Inhulets river — a tributary of the Dnipro — to the north, Kherson has become a key aim for Ukrainian forces.

"If they want to survive, it's time for the Russian military to run away. Go home," Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky said in a late night address Monday after Ukraine announced the start of a military operation in the south of the country.


Russia is believed to have about 20,000 troops in the city.


Whether the recent escalation in violence represents the first steps to that counter offensive is “too early to tell,” according to defense analyst Konrad Muzyka of the Poland-based Rochan Consulting agency.


Ukraine appeared to be attacking with relatively limited supplies, Muzyka told The Moscow Times, meaning the offensive could still be in its early stages.


Attempts to permanently dislodge Russian forces west of the Dnipro River could take months, Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Zelensky, said in a Telegram post Monday.


“Of course, many would like a large-scale offensive with news about the capture by our military of a settlement in an hour,” he wrote. “But we don’t fight like that… funds are limited.”

‘We Forced Them Well Back’: Fighting Intensifies in Ukraine’s South - The Moscow Times

[HermantheGerman]

bla..bla...bla.... just what is your view on the Russians ...bla....bla....bla

Here is the view of one of the "Great latest Russians":

Eduard Shevardnadze: resigned in December 1990, speaking of the "danger of fascism". In January 1991, special units from the Ministry of the Interior took action against demonstrators in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, killing at least 15 people. In Riga, Latvia, there were five.


I think you won't be able to comprehend about what he said. Maybe read it a few times and let it sink it, and then think why HtG is calling the Fuehrer of Russia Putler. Remember give yourself time because your not the brightest kid on this forum.

[NamPikToot]

^ off topic German alert

[OhOh]

Their big leaps in rocket technology came from the same place the US got theirs:
Germany.

Russia and China are ‘aggressively developing’ hypersonic weapons — here’s what they are and why the US can’t defend against them


Published Wed, Mar 21 20184:12 PM EDT Updated Thu, Mar 22 20188:29 AM EDT

Points

• America’s top nuclear commander said the U.S. doesn’t have defenses against hypersonic weapons.
  
• A hypersonic weapon travels at Mach 5 or higher, which is at least five times faster than the speed of sound.
  
• Russia and China are leading the way in developing hypersonic weapons.
  

Speed is the new stealth and earlier this week America’s top nuclear commander described a grim scenario for U.S. forces facing off against hypersonic weapons.

“We don’t have any defense that could deny the employment of such a weapon against us,” Air Force Gen. John Hyten, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday.

“Both Russia and China are aggressively pursuing hypersonic capabilities,” Hyten added. “We’ve watched them test those capabilities.”

Continues at:

Hypersonic weapons: what they are and why US can'''t defend against them

I think snubby is right than if it came to it, and providing nukes were off the table, the US and NATO would piss all over Putin's strawberries with great ease.

After 8 years of preparations - training Ukraine military, building defensive and offensive structures, providing their best weapons, running Ukraine military actions, providing intelligence and "volunteers" .... Russia and it's allies have taken more Ukraine territory and continue to advance.

For sanction "success" there is another thread.

In what way are you suggesting that the 16% have "pissed" over their enemy?

Russia is, when the truth is their military technology is proving to be quite shit in this conflict.

21 Aug, 18:15

Shoigu reveals Kinzhal hypersonic missile was used three times during special operation

According to the defense minister, no such missile in the world has such characteristics as the Kinzhal.

"According to the defense minister, no such missile in the world has such characteristics as the Kinzhal
TASS, August 21. The Russian Armed Forces used the Kinzhal hypersonic missile three times during the special operation in Ukraine, Russian Defense Minister Army General Sergey Shoigu announced.

"It was used by us [the Russian military] three times during the special military operation. And three times it showed its brilliant characteristics," Shoigu said in an interview with the Rossiya-1 TV channel on Sunday.

According to the defense minister, no such missile in the world has such characteristics as the Kinzhal. "Actually, no one else has such a missile yet: hypersonic, and with such speed, and with such penetrating capabilities. It is impossible neither to detect it nor to intercept," he added.

The Minister reminded that the Kinzhal is able to reach speed up to more than 10 Mach, changing the trajectory both in vertical and horizontal planes on the way. "In general, it is virtually impossible to detect it, and we strike particularly important targets with it," the top brass stressed."

Continues at:

Shoigu reveals Kinzhal hypersonic missile was used three times during special operation - Military & Defense - TASS

providing nukes were off the table

Russia has clearly stated their own nuclear missile usage criteria:

"Russia can use nuclear weapons only in response to an attack - "for self-defense in emergency circumstances." This was stated in an interview with Izvestia by Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Sergei Ryabkov. The diplomat responded in writing to questions about how Moscow sees the dialogue with the United States on disarmament, what it thinks about the threat of nuclear war, and how it assesses the prospects for a new prisoner exchange with Washington."

Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence

Moscow, Kremlin
June 2^nd, 2020
No.355

APPROVED

by Executive Order of the President
of the Russian Federation of June 2, 2020 No.355

BASIC PRINCIPLES

of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence

5. The Russian Federation considers nuclear weapons exclusively as a means of deterrence, their use being an extreme and compelled measure, and takes all necessary efforts to reduce nuclear threat and prevent aggravation of interstate relations, that could trigger military conflicts, including nuclear ones.

https://archive.mid.ru/en/web/guest/foreign_policy/international_safety/disarmament/-/asset_publisher/rp0fiUBmANaH/content/id/4152094

Meanwhile.

NaGastan, against the proliferation of nuclear weapons treaty:

1. Places nuclear bombs in foreign NATO countries,

2. Trains foreign pilots to use nuclear bombs from NATO airfields,

3. Stores Nuclear weapons in NATO Countries

4. Promises OZ with nuclear-powered subs,

5. Entices Japan to create their own nuclear weapons.

[OhOh]

America’s Wars Take on a Divisive Edge

Alastair Crooke

August 30, 2022

"Before Putin relinquishes the pressure on EU nations, he is still likely to insist that American influence from Western Europe is withdrawn.

It is August – Ukrainian Independence Day, and the anniversary, too, of Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Kabul. Washington is only too aware that these painful images (Afghans clinging to the undercarriage of Hercules planes) are about to be replayed, in the lead-up to the November elections.
Because events in Ukraine are unfolding badly for Washington – as the slow, calibrated steamroller of Russian artillery fire shreds the Ukrainian army. Ukraine has been notably unable to reinforce besieged positions, or to counterattack and to hold re-conquered territory. Ukraine has used HIMARS, artillery and drones to hit some Russian ammunition depots, but these, so far, are isolated incidents, and are more media ‘plays’, than constituting any shift in the strategic balance of the war.

So, let’s change the ‘narrative’: Over the last week, the Washington Post has been busy curating a new narrative. In gist, the shift is quite simple: U.S. intelligence, in the past, may have got things disastrously wrong, but they ‘nailed’ it this time. They warned of Putin’s plan to invade. They had it down to the Russian militaries’ detailed plans.

First Shift: Team Biden warned Zelensky multiple times, but the man stubbornly refused to listen. As a result, when the invasion blindsided Zelensky, the Ukrainians as a whole were hopelessly unprepared. Message: ‘It’s Zelensky to blame’.
Let’s not go into the egregious omission in this narrative of eight years of NATO preparation for a mega attack on Donbas that was bound to draw a Russian riposte. No need for a crystal ball to figure out ‘that’. Russian military structures had been sitting some 70 kms from the Ukrainian border for months.

Shift Two: Ukraine’s army is ‘turning the corner’, thanks to western weapons. Really? Message: No repeat of the Kabul debacle; of a collapse in Kiev can be tolerated until after the Midterms. Hence, repeat after me: ‘Ukraine is turning the corner’; hold fast, stay the course.
Shift Three (from a Financial Times editorial): Russia’s economy has proved more resilient than expected, but economic sanctions ‘were never likely to collapse its economy’. Actually, U.S. officials, U.S. and UK intelligence predicted precisely that a Russian financial and institutional collapse, following sanctions, would trigger economic and political turmoil in Moscow of such magnitude that Putin’s grip might be levered off his hold on power, and that a Moscow riven by political and financial crisis would be unable effectively to pursue a war in Donbas – thus Kiev would prevail.

This was ‘the line’ which persuaded the European political class to bet all on sanctions. French Finance Minister, Bruno Le Maire, declared “an-all out economic and financial war” against Russia, so as to trigger its collapse.

Shift Four (the FT again): The Europeans did not prepare sufficiently for the consequent energy price rises. They must therefore persevere more in shrinking Russia’s revenue, ‘tweaking further’ the coming oil embargo. Message: The EU must have misunderstood. Sanctions were ‘never likely’ to crash the Russian economy. They too did not prepare people for long term energy price rises; their fault.

Whilst this change of narrative might be understandable from the perspective of the U.S. interest, it comes as a ‘cold shower’ for Europe.
Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge University, writes in the FT:
In Europe, governments want to alleviate the dire pressures on households’ … [whilst letting] fear about the coming winter, drive down demand. Fiscally, this means state funding to reduce rising energy bills … What is not available anywhere, is a quick means for increasing the physical supply of energy [emphasis added].

This crisis is not an inadvertent consequence of the pandemic or Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine. It has much deeper roots in two structural problems. First, unpalatable as this reality is for climate and ecological reasons, world economic growth still requires fossil fuel production. Without more investment and exploration, there is unlikely to be sufficient supply in the medium term to meet likely demand. The present gas crisis has its origins in the Chinese-driven surge in gas consumption during 2021. Demand grew so rapidly that it was only available for European and Asian purchase at very high prices.

Meanwhile, respite from rising oil prices this year has only materialised when the economic data from China is unpropitious. In the International Energy Agency’s judgment, it is quite possible that global oil production will be inadequate to meet demand as soon as next year. For much of the 2010s, the world economy got by on the shale oil boom … But American shale cannot expand at the same rate again: Overall U.S. output is still more than 1mn barrels per day below what it was in 2019. Even in the Permian, daily production per well is declining. More offshore drilling, of the kind opened up in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska by the Inflation Reduction Act, will require higher prices, or investors willing to pour in capital regardless of the prospects for profit. The best geological prospects for a game changer akin to what happened in the 2010s lie with the huge Bazhenov shale oil formation in Siberia. But western sanctions mean that the prospect of western oil majors helping Russia technologically is a geopolitical dead end. Second, little can be done that would immediately accelerate the transition from fossil fuels … Running electricity grids on solar and wind base loads will require technological breakthroughs on storage. It is impossible to plan with any confidence what progress will have materialised in 10 years – let alone next year.

The geo-strategic message from this is as plain as a Pikestaff: It is a blunt warning that EU interests do not comport with those of a U.S. determined to get through the next months until the Midterms – with toughened sanctions imposed on Russia by Europe (the ‘tech sanctions ultimately will take their toll on the Russian economy’) – and with Europe too, continuing to ‘stand fast’ with its military and financial support for Kiev.

As Professor Thomson crisply remarks, “a grasp of geopolitical realities is also essential … Western governments must either invite economic misery on a scale that would test the fabric of democratic politics in any country – or face the fact that energy supply constrains the means by which Ukraine can be defended”. In other words, it’s either save the European political class’ skin through reverting to cheap Russian gas, or stay aligned with Washington and subject your electorates to misery – and its leaders to a political reckoning that is unfolding already.

This puts Russia in a position to play its ‘big cards’: So, just as the U.S. played its military backed, dollar-dominance to the full in the years following the implosion of the Soviet Union, to corral much of the world into its rules-based sphere:, today Russia and China are offering the Global South, Africa and Asia a release from these western ‘Rules’. They are encouraging the ‘Rest-of-World’ now to assert its autonomy and independence via the BRICS and the Eurasian Economic Community.

Russia, in partnership with China, is building widespread political relationships across Asia, Africa and the global South , based on its dominant role as supplier of fossil-fuel and much of the world’s food and raw materials. To further increase Russia’s influence over energy sources upon which the Western belligerents depend, Russia is stitching together a gas ‘OPEC’ with Iran and Qatar, and has also made welcoming overtures to Saudi Arabia and the UAE to join together in taking greater control of all key energy commodities.

Further, these big producers are joining with big energy consumers to wrest precious metal and commodity markets out of the hands of London and America – with a view to ending western manipulation of commodity prices, through derivative paper markets.

The argument advanced by Russian officials to other states is both hugely appealing and simple: The West has turned its back on fossil fuels and is planning to phase them out entirely – in a decade or so. The message is that you do not have to join with this masochistic ‘sacrifice politics’. You can have oil and natural gas – and at a discount to what Europe has to pay, helping the competitive advantage of your industries.
The “Golden Billion” have enjoyed the benefits of modernity, and now they want you to forego it all, and to expose your electorates to the extreme hardship of a radical Green Agenda. Arguably however, the non-aligned world requires at least the basics of modernity. The full rigours of western Green ideology however, cannot simply be mandated for the rest of the word – against its wishes.

This compelling argument represents the pathway for Russia and China to switch much of the globe to their camp.
Some states, too – whilst sympathetic to the need to attend to climate change – will see lurking within the ESG (Environment, Social and Governance) régime the clear makings of a new western financialised colonialism – with finance and credit rationed to only those in full conformity with the western-managed Green Project. In short, they suspect a new boondogle, enriching mainly western financial interests.

Russia is saying simply, ‘It needn’t be like this’. Yes, the climate must be a consideration, but fossil fuels are experiencing an acute lack of investment, partly for Green ideological reasons, rather than that such resources are running out, per se. And, unpalatable though it be for some, the fact is that world economic growth still requires fossil fuel production. Without more investment and exploration, there is unlikely to be sufficient supply in the medium term to meet likely demand. What is not available anywhere, is a quick means for increasing the supply of alternative physical energy.

Where are we now? Russia has a big offensive underway in Ukraine. And Europe may hope it can just slink away from the its Ukraine imbroglio almost unnoticed, without appearing openly to break with Biden, as Kiev incrementally implodes. You see it already. How much headline Ukraine news in Europe? How much network news? ‘Europe can just stay quiet, and back away from the débacle’, it is suggested.

But here is the rub: Before Putin relinquishes the pressure on EU nations, he is still likely to insist that American influence from Western Europe is withdrawn, or at the least that Europe begins to act fully autonomously in its own interest.

There is little doubt this was on Putin’s mind when he launched the ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine. He must have anticipated NATO’s reaction in imposing its Russia sanctions – from which the latter (very unexpectedly for the West), has profited greatly. It is the EU which has been badly crushed, with a squeeze that Putin can intensify at will.

The drama is still playing out. Putin needs to keep up some pressure on Ukraine to keep the squeeze going. He likely, is not ready to compromise. Winter in the EU will be tougher still, with energy and food shortages likely to lead to social turmoil. Putin will only stop when the Europeans have experienced enough pain to chart a different strategic course – and to break with the U.S. and NATO."

https://www.strategic-culture.org/ne...divisive-edge/

[OhOh]

Excellent report regarding Ukraine's latest ongoing attempt, at destroying the Russian military.

The sites opinion - German.

The NaGastan official spokesman's opinion - NaGastan.

The questions from his press audience - NaGastan.

The NaGastan officials walk back. - NaGastan.

The 235 comments posted in 20 hours - Worldwide.

Ukraine - A 'Counteroffensive' That Was Destined To Fail

Yesterday, Ukraine launched some kind of offensive in the general Kherson region, north of the Dnieper.

MoA - Ukraine - A 'Counteroffensive' That Was Destined To Fail

[NamPikToot]

You know Ohoh you are as eager to report your political messages as Snub is to find news from any outlet to counter it. You both clearly love this dispute which is quite unsavoury.