Ukraine war mega thread

[OhOh]

Tucker Carlson streams interview with Vladimir Putin
Tucker Carlson streams interview with Vladimir Putin: LIVE UPDATES — RT World News

The full 2 hours.

[OhOh]

FEBRUARY 17, 2024 BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR

Germany swims or sinks with NATO

"There couldn’t be a better metaphor than what a Chinese analyst used to characterise the NATO while commenting on its secretary general Jens Stoltenberg’s recent remark that the West does not seek war with Russia but should still “prepare ourselves for a confrontation that could last decades.”
The Chinese commentator compared Stoltenberg to an in-charge of a firm of undertakers, “a store owner of coffin and casket, which makes no money in peacetime. As an undertaker, NATO needs conflict, bloodshed for earnings. So it spreads fear and panic in order to ensure its member countries continue to contribute military funding.”

Stoltenberg’s remark appeared in an interview with German newspaper Welt Am Sonntag on Feb. 10, soon after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s famous interview with Tucker Carlson where the Kremlin signalled that Russia did not refuse and is not refusing negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Stoltenberg spoke for the Pentagon, no doubt.

Moscow, having reached an unassailable position in the war, is not interested in a full-scale war to realise its objectives, as eventually, the West will have to co-exist with Russia. Putin’s interview with Carlson was timed carefully — with hardly a fortnight left for the war to enter its third year.

Putin’s “message” that Russia is open to dialogue caught Washington off guard. For one thing, the bandwidth of the Biden Administration is dominated by the Israel-Palestine crisis. On the other hand, the two-year anniversary of the war is marked by a signal battlefield victory by Russian forces in the strategic eastern town of Avdiivka, a gateway to Donetsk city, and effectively on the front line ever since 2014 when the conflict in Donbass started.

All attempts by Russian troops to liquidate the big Ukrainian base in Avdiivka threatening Donetsk city had failed so far. Avdiivka is key to Russia’s aim of securing full control of the two eastern Donbass provinces — Donetsk and Luhansk. Its capture not only boosts the Russian morale but also consolidates Donetsk as a major Russian logistics hub for further westerly operations in the direction of the Dniepr river.

In political terms, it underscores that all along the almost 1000-km frontline, Russian forces are presently advancing. The Ukrainian military suffered a rout in Avdiivka.

Biden’s re-election bid will be bumpy if such distressing news keeps appearing from Ukraine highlighting the gravity of his foreign policy disaster, as NATO stares at another humiliating defeat after Afghanistan. Donald Trump is relentlessly challenging Biden on the issue of Russia-Ukraine and on NATO. Contrary to earlier prognosis, the US election has turned into one of the most influencing factors in the Ukraine conflict.

The path in the US Congress towards a military aid package for Ukraine is uncertain. The main obstacle was all along the House of Representatives, where Republicans have a majority. Apart from the Republican Speaker of the House being not in any hurry to table the bill passed by the Senate, the Congress is also about to shift back towards domestic fiscal policies, so that the foreign aid bill might simply fall down the list of priorities in the legislative agenda.

Meanwhile, the hearing in the Supreme Court on Trump’s candidacy signals that the talk that he might be debarred from running for the presidency is only wishful thinking. That means, if Trump maintains his lead in the South Carolina primaries on 24th February, the Republican race will be essentially over and he will be the party’s presumptive candidate. Trump has also widened his lead over Joe Biden in the polls.

The flow of finance to Ukraine is already ebbing and there is a pall of gloom among Ukraine’s cheerleaders in Europe after having discovered finally that Kiev is not winning the war. The West’s proxy war without a clearly set war goal means that there is no exit strategy, either.

A Trump victory would badly expose the European partners. Plugging the funding gap by Europe is going to be highly problematic. The US has so far committed €71.4 billion, more than half of it in the form of military aid. Number two is Germany with €21 billion, followed by the UK with €13.3 billion. Norway comes fourth. The paradox is, while the three largest European donors are all NATO members, it is only Germany who is a member of the European Union.

And Germany is not big enough to fill the gap left by the US on its own. But the biggest obstacle to a common European response is the lack of common ground between France and Germany. The special Franco-German relationship has largely become a historical artefact. The two EU giants are pursuing incompatible economic strategies — on fiscal policy and nuclear energy — and their economies are diverging, and so is their politics and defence strategies.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has reoriented German defence co-operation away from France and towards the US. The power struggle between the EU’s two biggest powers that had its origins in the lack of chemistry between French president Emmanuel Macron and Scholz has turned into an antagonism manifesting as two different visions of the world.

Macron’s concept of “strategic autonomy”, which calls for Europe not to rely on outside powers in vital areas that could give them political leverage, is rubbing against Germany’s historical reliance on American military umbrella (which France does not require.)

After a meeting with Biden at the White House in Washington on February 9, Scholz said, “Let’s not beat about the bush: support from the United States is indispensable if Ukraine is to be capable of defending itself.” Scholz strongly advocated stepping up military aid to Ukraine, emphasising an imperative need to send out a “very clear signal” to Putin.

As he put it, “We need to show that he (Putin) can’t count on our support waning.” Scholz added: “The support we provide will be on a big enough scale and it will last long enough.” By hyping up the war-like atmosphere, Germany seeks to maintain the relevance and financial stability of NATO through the conflict in Ukraine.

Biden responded to Scholz purring like a cat showing pleasure. Biden will next host Poland’s President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk for a meeting in Washington on March 12. The US is re-energising its coalition with Germany and Poland for the next phase of Ukraine war. France stands outside looking in, while Britain lies in coma.

Simply put, while Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky’s delusion is that he can win this war, NATO’s delusion is that it will do whatever it takes. But the undertaker’s money is running out and further business depends on prolonging the war.

The veil has come off the western narrative — this war was never about Ukraine. The enemy image of Russia has become the cornerstone of NATO’s very existence and function.

Certainly, taking orders from an undertaker is not in Germany’s interests. The noted German editor Wolfgang Münchau wrote recently about “a general disorientation in Germany that accompanies the geopolitical and social change” manifesting in the faltering economy, the de-industrialisation that is happening and the absence of a post-industrial strategy for the country as such.

Clearly, European interests lie in shouldering own defence and making peace with Russia so as to focus attention on the economy. Germans themselves are conflicted over this war. Scholz is not a man of charisma or of big ideas, Münchau noted, and German public no longer trusts him. But then, there is also “the deeper problem: it is not really Scholz. It is that Germany has become a lot harder to run.” "

Germany swims or sinks with NATO - Indian Punchline

[OhOh]

Regulated in the security partnership between Germany and Ukraine

The agreement is worth reading because it is a PR stunt and only contains empty words.

"The first “security guarantees” have now been signed and they all have one thing in common: they are just empty words that, in a nutshell, say that they will help Ukraine in the event of an attack by sending money and weapons to Ukraine and training its soldiers. This means that these “security guarantees” do not go beyond what the West already does.

"1. Scope"
The first article defines the “scope” of the agreement. There's nothing new in this. Germany promises to “unwaveringly support Ukraine for as long as necessary” and so on. The last point of the article is interesting because it says:

“Germany points out that national budget law applies and requires resolutions from the Bundestag.”

2. The second article of the agreement is “security and military support” and it also contains nothing new. Germany makes a wordy promise to support Ukraine militarily, although nothing is promised that goes beyond the level of support already provided.

It is noteworthy that people in Berlin are apparently very worried about the kleptocrats in Kiev selling the weapons supplied to Ukraine on the international black market, because the article explicitly states:

“The participants share the view that illegal diversion of military goods must be avoided. Germany recognizes the prevention efforts of the Ukrainian side and international partners and intends to support these efforts, if necessary, by establishing an appropriate end-use monitoring program and the necessary equipment.”
There is already a back door built in here, because if Berlin decides that the “illegal diversion of military goods” from Kiev cannot be avoided, Berlin can withdraw from military aid until further notice.

3. The third article of the agreement deals with economic cooperation, although nothing new is promised here either. It is downright funny that the federal government has to incorporate its climate slogans here again, because when it comes to the “security of energy supply” in Ukraine, “particular attention should be paid to the green energy transition”. As if Ukraine had no other worries…

As is well known, in Ukraine the opposition press was banned at the beginning of 2021, a year before the escalation began. It should stay that way, because Germany promises to continue “mutual cooperation in the area of countering Russian or other information manipulation and propaganda.”

Sure, who needs non-governmental media and diversity of opinion? The question is who should learn from whom...

4. It is also stipulated that Russian assets should – if legally possible – be handed over to Kiev:

“The participants affirm that the Russian Federation should be held accountable for the damage inflicted on Ukrainian territory. Russian state assets should remain immobilized until the Russian Federation pays for damages caused to Ukraine.

5.“Future aggression”

This article is interesting because with the security guarantees that the Western states want to give Kiev, the key question is how the West would behave in a later Ukrainian conflict with Russia. We learn:

“In the event of a future armed attack by Russia on Ukraine, the participants will, at the request of either participant, consult within 24 hours to decide on appropriate further steps.”

The possible “appropriate further steps” are also mentioned and they only concern what the West is already doing: supplying weapons, sending money, training Ukrainian soldiers and so on. So there is nothing new here either.

6. “Time frame of the agreement”
The agreement was concluded for ten years and can be extended by mutual agreement. That sounds good, but a little later it is written there:

“This Agreement may be terminated by any Participant at any time. The participant should inform the other participant at least six months in advance by means of a written notice.”
.
Given the slogans about supporting Ukraine “for as long as necessary,” this is unlikely to be widely reported in the press."

[Norton]

“Let’s not beat about the bush: support from the United States is indispensable if Ukraine is to be capable of defending itself.”

For sure but Putin's allies in Congress are, so far, making sure the Ukraine get's fuck all.
Result, Russia makes gains on the front.

[Neverna]

Avdiivka: Ukraine troops leave embattled eastern town


Ukraine says its troops have withdrawn from Avdiivka - a key eastern town besieged by Russian forces for months.

The decision was taken in order to save the soldiers' lives, said President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Russia's defence ministry said on Saturday it had taken "full control" of the town, with President Vladimir Putin hailing it as an "important victory".

Its fall marks Russia's biggest win for months, and Mr Zelensky blamed faltering Western weapons supplies.

Avdiivka has been engulfed in fierce fighting for months and has been a battlefield town since 2014, when Russian-backed fighters seized large swathes of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The fall of Avdiivka marks the biggest change on the more than 1,000km-long (620-mile) front line since Russian troops seized the nearby town of Bakhmut in May 2023.

US President Joe Biden blamed Ukraine's withdrawal from Avdiivka on congressional inaction over a crucial foreign aid package - including funding for Ukraine - which forced troops to ration ammunition.

In a call with Mr Zelensky, Mr Biden reiterated America's unwavering support for Ukraine.



More here:
Avdiivka: Ukraine troops leave embattled eastern town - BBC News

[Neverna]

Troops retreating from Avdiivka captured by Putin’s army


Ukrainian troops retreating from the eastern frontline town of Avdiivka have been captured during a dangerous retreat, a Ukrainian military commander has revealed.

“At the final stage of the (withdrawal) operation, under the pressure of the overwhelming enemy forces, a certain number of Ukrainian servicemen were captured,” Ukrainian Brigadier-General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi wrote on Telegram.

He said Ukrainian troops had now moved to the second line of defences near Avdiivka.

The withdrawal from Avdiivka was announced by the newly-appointed Ukrainian military chief Oleksandry Syrskyi earlier on Friday.

“Based on the operational situation around Avdiivka, in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen, I decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defence on more favourable lines,” Gen Syrskyi wrote.

Earlier this week, a crack 3rd Assault Brigade was rotated in to defend the city from a Russian encirclement after the Kremlin’s forces pushed into the northeast and south of the city.



Ukraine-Russia war live: Troops retreating from Avdiivka captured by Putin’s army as town set to fall | The Independent

[Neverna]

Key Donbass city of Avdeevka liberated – Moscow

With Ukrainian forces routed, Russian soldiers are clearing the last pockets of resistance from the city

Russian forces have “completely captured” the city of Avdeevka, the Russian Defense Ministry announced on Saturday. Some 1,500 Ukrainian troops were killed as they retreated, leaving their weapons and equipment behind, the ministry said.

The seizure moves the front line further away from the city of Donetsk, thereby shielding its civilian population from bombardment by Ukrainian forces. Situated around 20km away, Avdeevka had been fortified and used as a staging ground for such attacks since 2014.

“Under the continuous fire of Russian troops, only individual scattered formations of Ukrainian militants” managed to escape the city, the ministry said, stating that Kiev had lost 1,500 men in the 24 hours before the city was liberated. Those that fled left their weapons and equipment behind them, it added.

“Measures are being taken to fully clear the city of militants,” the defense ministry said, adding that Russian forces would soon move to block Ukrainian units holed up in a coke plant on the city’s outskirts.

After appointing a new commander-in-chief, who surged elite Western-trained units into Avdeevka in a failed bid to hold the city, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky conceded on Saturday that the order had been given to retreat. With the bastion almost completely encircled by Russia’s ‘Center’ group of forces, Zelensky called the order “absolutely logical.”

Following the capture of Avdeevka, Russian forces will continue their offensive to “further liberate the Donetsk People’s Republic from Ukrainian nationalists,” the ministry’s statement concluded.

Key Donbass city of Avdeevka liberated – Moscow — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union

[bsnub]

Russia makes gains on the front.

Incremental gains that came at an extreme cost.

Key Donbass city of Avdeevka liberated – Moscow

Why post this garbage? Nothing was liberated, this ruzzian scum are invading occupiers. Are you a vatnik?

From an American who fights in Chosen company and was there...

Casualty wise (WIA&KIA) Bahkmut was likely higher. Deaths only wise, Avdiivka was likely 2x worse for the Russians than Bahkmut. The easiest way to explain why is Terrain, and the built up fortifications. Even in the areas at the flanks. The opening day of RUs offensive in our sector over a dozen BMPs were destroyed before they even got within 800m of Ukrainian lines. The infantry on and in that initial assault were caught out in the open and mowed down rather quickly.

One defensive operation that we were on, 16 of Chosen and 8 Ukrainians(javelin teams+snipers) destroyed 4 BMPs, damaged one that made it under a bridge with 6 others that escaped unharmed after dropping troops 300m+ away from the line in the field, 2 BTRs destroyed, 2 tanks one of which was destroyed by one of the craziest tank maneuvers by a UA tank team i ever saw and 70+ infantry killed or wounded. The Russians successfully pushed us out of the trench to another friendly trench (there was only 10 defenders in that 1 trench with reserve force and supporting fires/overwatch being provided from nearby trench 200m away) and took control of the trench. Which was then blown with demolitions, fpv and artillery once the surviving russians (around 12) grouped up into it.

Our losses that day were 4 UA KIA, 2 Chosen KIA (Gander & Stremski) and everyone minor or moderately wounded with frag.

The human cost of Russia's Avdiivka sector endeavor likely cost them 100k WIA&KIA easily. Day after day for 2 or 3 weeks they continously attempted to run armor at fortified lines. In our sector, after they ran out of BMPs&BTRs they used troop transport trucks(Kamaz type) to try and get infantry as close as possible. These vehicles more often then not were hit by fpv or drones waited for dismount and hit infantry with droppers. We made it a point to try and hit every enemy soldier still alive. If they crawled into a bunker, thermobaric. If they were crawling in an open field, grenade drop.

Mid to end Nov though, something changed. No longer were the Russians attempting 50+ men assaults. They'd move in groups of 8-12 men. If 2 or 3 made it, they'd hide amongst the rubble. The next group would move 5-15 minutes behind the first and they'd do the same. Once the survivors regrouped and had 20 or so men spread in 2 or more positions, they'd then push forward while a new rear element pushed up from behind and they'd mass creeping fires and drones while doing so. Only stopping once the RU infantry were within 25-50m of our positions.

They adapted their tactics to run as a mass of smaller human waves with less armor and more foot infantry to knock out a few meters of the killing fields or Grey area at a time. They didn't try to dig in. They just hid wherever they could.

One position we consistently fought over ended up with dead soldiers stacked around it (obj kyiv). There was well over 100 Russians strewn about infront and inside of it. Our fallen(KIA) Ukrainians around 10 or so that were taken in the 3 weeks of holding it, we had organized to the rear area of the fighting line, in hopes of getting their remains out, some we were able to, others we werent. We did take dozens upon dozens of wounded trying to hold obj k and took a lot of wounded and killed trying to retrieve remains of fallen and wounded soldiers from positions(I'd say 20-35% of all our wounded in the sector was trying to get remains or wounded out). You'd spend more time trying to organize where to throw the dead or move the dead out of firing lines than attempting to rebuild the positions daily.

https://twitter.com/IhateTrenches/st...25982922825728

From the ruzzian perspective...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...95834206887975

This was no victory for the occupiers.

[Norton]

Incremental gains that came at an extreme cost.

It did but Putin has the troops and equipment to contimue and the Ukraine needs a lot more of both to counter.

[cyrille]

This was no victory for the occupiers.

Your c&p from Twitter just takes issue with the use of the word 'surrender'.

[bsnub]

Your c&p from Twitter just takes issue with the use of the word 'surrender'.

Apparently you missed the part when he says they lost many times more men than even in Bakhmut.

[Troy]

Well, the war isn't going the way snubby was predicting last year, that's for sure.

[cyrille]

^And now he's just plain pretending.

[cyrille]

Volodymyr Zelenskiy pleads for more arms as frontline Ukrainian city falls | Ukraine | The Guardian

[bsnub]

Well, the war isn't going the way snubby was predicting last year, that's for sure.

I made no hard predictions about anything at any time. There was always uncertainty and the reality is that the west has failed Ukraine, it is being forced to fight with one hand tied behind its back.

And now he's just plain pretending.

Pretending about what exactly? Things are bad for Ukraine right now, no one is doubting that, my post was illustrating the massive price the ruzzians paid taking Avdiivka. Are you disputing that?

[hallelujah]

Sad to see what's become of Snubby.

He's our Oh Oh these days.

It's a shame cos I agree with him on many things (Israel aside), but he's become ridiculous with his failure to see any other point of view beyond what his propaganda tells him.

[bsnub]

but he's become ridiculous with his failure to see any other point of view beyond what his propaganda tells him.

I do not have any "propaganda". With regard to Israel, you are the one buying into the false narrative, not me. You think HAMAS is a credible source for information, I don't.

He's our Oh Oh these days.

That is absurd and beyond stupid. What are you disputing here? The above post was from an American who is actually fighting in Avdivka, I think he has a better idea of what is going on than you do. Hardly fucking propaganda.

[bsnub]

Even your own Defense Ministry is saying the same. I guess it is "propaganda" too. GTFO

[hallelujah]

Do you honestly think I'd trust 100% what Britain and the US have to say?!?!??!?!?

How many times have we lied and thrown countries/people under the bus?

"We" are not always the good guys and we don't always win, but this is something you are clearly unwilling or unable to accept, Oh Oh.

[bsnub]

"We" are not always the good guys and we don't always win, but this is something you are clearly unwilling or unable to accept, Oh Oh.

You clown, I have posted three sources to illustrated that the ruzzians have taken massive casualties in this offensive, one was an American soldier actually participating in the fighting, a ruzzian Colonel participating in the fighting and the third and final source is your own MOD. Apparently, to you, all of that is horseshit. Seems to me, you are pushing the false narrative.

There is also countless other footage of the battle space, and I have seen most of it, and the amount of casualties the ruzzians have taken is massive whether you want to believe it or not.

[Troy]

Sad to see what's become of Snubby.

He's our Oh Oh these days.

Yep just another nutter that thinks everyone who disagrees with him is an idiot.

[bsnub]

Yep just another nutter that thinks everyone who disagrees with him is an idiot.

You have a very selective memory. You and I for a very long period of time in this thread discussed this war in a civil and respectful fashion. We disagreed but remained civil, and I do not recall ever calling you an idiot. I will call Seekingass and idiot because he is one.

[Iceman123]

Another thunder run is coming this winter. Where will it be? Pin the tail on the fucking donkey, bitches. The hammer is coming.

The Seattle simpleton giving his prediction in December 2022.

[bsnub]

The Seattle simpleton giving his prediction in December 2022.

Here are your far more telling prediction's dipshit...

Says the man who claims Ukraine is winning

Yep I am on the side of reality, and unfortunately Ukraine are losing.

Now when are you going to accept the reality that Ukraine are not winning.

the Ukraine has virtually no chance against a superior force in numbers and equipment.

Who’s winning now on planet Bsnub?

here on earth Ukraine are losing for sure.

I will repeat to try to get it to sink in “Russia is winning”

According to you, the war should have been over a year and a half ago.

[bsnub]

What a bunch of clowns.