Ukraine war mega thread

[bsnub]

The Russian obsession with Bakhmut is going to cost them dearly...

[sabang]

Excellent article, as well it might be- coming from Stephen Walt.




The Perpetually Irrational Ukraine Debate

The war continues to be discussed in ways that are self-serving—and self-defeating.



Walt-Steve-foreign-policy-columnist20Stephen M. Walt
By Stephen M. Walt, a columnist at Foreign Policy and the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.






Because war is uncertain and reliable information is sparse, no one knows how the war in Ukraine will play out. Nor can any of us be completely certain what the optimal course of action is. We all have our own theories, hunches, beliefs, and hopes, but nobody’s crystal ball is 100 percent reliable in the middle of a war.

You might think that this situation would encourage observers to approach the whole issue with a certain humility and give alternative perspectives a fair hearing even when they disagree with one’s own. Instead, debates about responsibility for the war and the proper course of action to follow have been unusually nasty and intolerant, even by modern standards of social media vituperation. I’ve been trying to figure out why this is the case.

What I find especially striking is how liberal interventionists, unrepentant neoconservatives, and a handful of progressives who are all-in for Ukraine seem to have no doubts whatsoever about the origins of the conflict or the proper course of action to follow today. For them, Russian President Vladimir Putin is solely and totally responsible for the war, and the only mistakes others may have made in the past was to be too nice to Russia and too willing to buy its oil and gas. The only outcome they are willing to entertain is a complete Ukrainian victory, ideally accompanied by regime change in Moscow, the imposition of reparations to finance Ukrainian reconstruction, and war crimes trials for Putin and his associates. Convinced that anything less than this happy result will reward aggression, undermine deterrence, and place the current world order in jeopardy, their mantra is: “Whatever it takes for as long as it takes.”

This same group has also been extraordinarily critical of those who believe responsibility for the war is not confined to Russia’s president and who think these war aims might be desirable in the abstract but are unlikely to be achieved at an acceptable cost and risk. If you have the temerity to suggest that NATO enlargement (and the policies related to it) helped pave the road to war, if you believe the most likely outcome is a negotiated settlement and that getting there sooner rather than later would be desirable, and if you favor supporting Ukraine but think this goal should be weighed against other interests, you’re almost certain to be denounced as a pro-Putin stooge, an appeaser, an isolationist, or worse. Case in point: When a handful of progressive congressional representatives released a rather tepid statement calling for greater reliance on diplomacy a few weeks ago, it was buried under a hailstorm of criticism and quickly disavowed by its own sponsors.

Wartime is precisely when one should think most dispassionately and carefully about one’s own interests and strategies. Unfortunately, keeping a cool head is especially hard to do when the bullets are flying, innocent people are suffering, and rallying public support takes priority. A narrowing of debate is typical of most wars—at least for a long time—with governments encouraging patriotic groupthink and marginalizing dissident views. And the war in Ukraine has been no exception thus far.

..... Here’s the rub: What if the war does end in a messy and disappointing compromise instead of the happy Hollywood ending most of the world would like to see? Despite the welcome progress Ukraine has made in recent months, such an unsatisfying outcome may still be the most likely result. If Russia still controls substantial amounts of Ukrainian territory a year from now, Ukraine has suffered additional damage in the interim, Putin still rules in Moscow despite the harm his war has done to Russia, and the United States’ European allies have had to absorb another influx of refugees and endure difficult Ukraine-related economic hardships, then it will be increasingly difficult for the Biden administration to spin this war as a success story. The finger-pointing, blame-casting, and blame-avoidance will then make today’s rancorous debate seem mild by comparison.

Unfortunately, these are the sort of political circumstances that lead presidents to keep distant wars going. Even if there’s no plausible path to victory, the desire to avoid being accused of not having done enough tempts them to escalate in some way or kick the can down the road. (In case you’ve forgotten, that’s pretty much how the United States ended up in Afghanistan for nearly two decades.) U.S. President Joe Biden and his team haven’t given themselves a lot of wiggle room, and their freedom of action is further reduced when any hint of less-than-total support for Kyiv generates a firestorm of hawkish denunciations. If the world is forced to choose the lesser evil from a set of bad choices, a more civil and less accusatory discourse would make it easier for policymakers to consider a wider range of alternatives as well as make it more likely that Ukraine and the coalition that is presently supporting it make the right call.

FULL- archive.ph

[bsnub]

KREMENNA/0230 UTC 8 DEC/ UKR is exploiting the interdiction of the P-66 HWY between Ploschanka and Chervonopopivka. Tactical pressure is being exerted on Kremenna in the north, at Zhytiivika, and south of of the urban area at Shypylivka.

[bsnub]

Excellent article, as well it might be- coming from Stephen Walt.

More frantic crap posted in the thread to try to mask the fact that things are not going well for Russia. Do yourself a favor and watch the video. Stop living in fantasy land.

[bsnub]

Another thunder run is coming this winter. Where will it be? Pin the tail on the fucking donkey, bitches. The hammer is coming.

[Iceman123]

Another thunder run is coming this winter. Where will it be? Pin the tail on the fucking donkey, bitches. The hammer is coming.

Thank goodness for the emoji, now we know that even you don’t believe it.

Sorry Snubby but I am allergic to stupidity, I breakout in sarcasm

[david44]

The hammer is coming.

I Thor that too

[HermantheGerman]

Let's hope they all die


There are a lot of deserters in the Russian army, but this trend has not changed since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. It does not depend on the advancement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine but on the conditions in which the mobilized found themselves.
“The mobilized are not ready to carry out the tasks. They do not understand what tasks they were mobilized for, being on foreign territory, realizing that they are practically ready” semi-cauldrons “and” boilers “of the Ukrainian army,” military expert Roman Svitan said.
At the same time, he pointed out that the movement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine towards the Sea of ​​Azov would block the land corridor, and the Russians in the temporarily occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, as well as the Crimea, will find themselves in an operational boiler.
“Seeing all these actions, many refuseniks leave their combat positions. In the same Zaporizhzhia region, helicopters drive them across the steppes. This is a big problem for the Russian army; sometimes there are as many refuseniks as there are 200s,” the expert said.
At the same time, he believes that Bakhmut will have to fight to the last occupier because the Wagner PMC mercenaries have taken over him.
“Bakhmut will most likely be a hot spot until the end of this campaign. Participants of the so-called Wagner private military company have taken up this section of about 10 kilometers. They cannot lose it now. They are working to access the water conduit from the Seversky Donets. If they do not comply, then the political reputation of Prigozhin and the military reputation of Wagner will simply die. They will not leave Bakhmut until everyone there dies,” Svitan explained.

Roman Svitan: despite the problems, the invaders will not leave Bakhmut | odessa-journal.com

[HermantheGerman]

Russian scumbags! Attacking civilians is what they do best

Russia threw all combat-ready units in the Bakhmut direction, but suffers losses

Russia threw all combat-ready units in the Bakhmut direction, but suffers losses | odessa-journal.com

[sabang]

Oh goody- war porn time.


WHY SHOULD UKRAINE BLAME ITS NATO ALLIES FOR THE DEFEAT AT BAKHMUT?





In view of the reports of high losses of the Ukrainian army in the Donetsk region near Bakhmut city, the question arises as to the root of the defeat. It may include the depletion of the combat-ready units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces after the successful counterattack at Kherson in autumn 2022, the air dominance of the Russian army, the slowdown of new NATO arms shipments after Russian missile attacks on the Ukrainian railway and energy networks.



Western military experts agree that one of the key factors is the participation of the Wagner PMCs, which have already proved themselves as a trained and motivated unit. A distinctive feature of the Wagner group is the extensive use of not only automatic and sniper weapons, but also heavy vehicles, including tanks, MLRS systems and military aircrafts. According to Ukrainian information sources, the heavy losses of the AFU near Bakhmut, reaching 500-700 people per day, are the result of the active use of heavy weaponry by the Russian army.


Captured Ukrainian soldiers in the Donetsk region stated that they had taken short-term training courses according to NATO standards in Great Britain and Canada, which do not involve the long-term use of artillery, modern reconnaissance means and heavy machinery by the enemy. The training, which was conducted on a tight schedule and focused on the use of small battle groups and light armored vehicles, proved ineffective and as a result only led to increased losses.

As it turned out, the NATO tactical systems, which had been well proven in local combat operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan against poorly armed Islamic militant groups, were inefficient against heavily armed regular army forces. In the hope of preventing a catastrophe in Bakhmut, the AFU command can only send new units there, while reducing its capabilities in other parts of the battlefront.






Considering a possible intensification of combat operations in the north of Ukraine, combined with the reduced ability of European allies to provide the AFU with weapons and equipment in time, the destruction of the most combat-ready Ukrainian army units in the Donetsk region can be critical for Kiev’s potential to continue the military confrontation with Russia.​


Why Should Ukraine Blame Its NATO Allies For The Defeat At Bakhmut?South Front


If you follow the link, there is an embedded video, shoot from a drone, showing you the hellscape in Bakhmut, and an artillery assault. Holy cow.

[sabang]

The Western media shared another interview with a mercenary who returned from Ukraine and revealed interesting details about the ongoing military conflict.

The British “volunteer” Josef McDonald claimed that a lot of foreign weapons disappear in Ukraine before they reach the front lines. He provided an example from his personal experience. When he moved with his unit from the Rovno region to Kharkov, they had two trucks full of:
– 84 M4 assault rifles
– 12 SCAR-H 7.62 rifles
– “a couple of” Javelin ATMs
– M240B machine guns etc.

Along the road full of checkpoints, two trucks disappeared. The British “volunteer” supposed that Ukrainian officers were behind the criminal scheme.

Josef is one of the few survivors after the Russian attack on a training ground with Western mercenaries near Lviv wich took place months ago. His claims are very different from those spread by the official Kiev propaganda.

We understood nothing, except that Kiev was about to fall – complete chaos, we were waiting for a clash with Putin’s airborne forces at any moment. After that, another rocket flew in, hit the location of Ukrainian soldiers, there were many killed…
While the doctors were dressing the wounds, looting reigned around. There was a lot of criminal element in the foreign legion, this robbery lasted for months.
The weapons that we had, we got from the militants of the Georgian Legion after the raid on the warehouse, as payment for silence, three old FAL rifles and several submachine guns for a squad of 30 people – that’s all we managed to get to fend off Putin’s paratroopers.

As it turned out, many came to plunder, and not to help Ukraine, they then cowardly fled.

You may watch the full interview and learn about kebabs for military commanders at their dacha, unsanitary conditions in Ukrainian barracks, impostors among foreign mercenaries, looting and how the Russians calculated the centers of location of foreign mercenaries in Western Ukraine :

SouthFront has recently published an overview of several interviews with foreign mercenaries who returned from Ukraine and revealed more interesting details on the situation in the war-turn country. You may read it HERE.

Revelations Of British Mercenary On Shocking Corruption In Ukrainian ArmySouth Front

Video of said interview, if you follow the link.

[HermantheGerman]

^

Much much did you donate to your war porn website?

[sabang]

As much as you did to yours.

[HermantheGerman]

As much as you did to yours.

Australians are dumb as shit! Wouln't you agree?

We know who you are’: Australian police say Russian cybercriminals behind Medibank hack

Commissioner Reece Kershaw says AFP has ‘significant runs on the scoreboard when it comes to bringing overseas offenders back to face justice’


Now guess who runs your website Southfront?
You can even use a russian search engine if you want

[sabang]

We are gonna have a nice warm Christmas. Germans are real smart.

[HermantheGerman]

As much as you did to yours.

Has Backspin hacked your account?
You sure sound like him lately

[sabang]

Herman, you are so dumb you wouldn't even be admitted into NAFO. Go bug some vermin.

[HermantheGerman]

We are gonna have a nice warm Christmas. Germans are real smart.

I used your advise. Remember?

[HermantheGerman]

Herman, you are so dumb you wouldn't even be admitted into NAFO. Go bug some vermin.

So did you donate Popeye?

Treasury Escalates Sanctions Against the Russian Government’s Attempts to Influence U.S. Elections | U.S. Department of the Treasury

[HermantheGerman]

The Russian obsession with Bakhmut is going to cost them dearly...

08.12.2022

"The Russians are bleeding to death in Bakhmut"
Colonel Andreas Schreiber is a military expert at the German Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies. In his view, the winter in Ukraine is leading to a freezing of the fronts with heavy losses on both sides. However, Ukraine is clearly better prepared for the cold season.

[helge]

Not sure if you have lived there as I have

Never
And never will

Most Americans are not crazy, Fundamentalists

So what's the percentage, who believes that Grand Canyon was made by God ?

45 % ?
40 % ?

These folks elect the guy, who has the finger on the button.

Fact

If you can lower the percentage for me, I'll be glad

It would be like describing the jolly, friendly Danes by a few drunk xenophobes

Way more than a few, my friend

We have the numbers each time we vote, cause we don't ban even the most extremist political parties

You sir are an idiot.

And you elected Trump

Congrats with being......."normal"

[bsnub]

And you elected Trump

I voted for Biden, you blathering idiot.

[Hugh Cow]

The Western media shared another interview with a mercenary who returned from Ukraine and revealed interesting details about the ongoing military conflict.

The British “volunteer” Josef McDonald claimed that a lot of foreign weapons disappear in Ukraine before they reach the front lines. He provided an example from his personal experience. When he moved with his unit from the Rovno region to Kharkov, they had two trucks full of:
– 84 M4 assault rifles
– 12 SCAR-H 7.62 rifles
– “a couple of” Javelin ATMs
– M240B machine guns etc.

Along the road full of checkpoints, two trucks disappeared. The British “volunteer” supposed that Ukrainian officers were behind the criminal scheme.

Josef is one of the few survivors after the Russian attack on a training ground with Western mercenaries near Lviv wich took place months ago. His claims are very different from those spread by the official Kiev propaganda.

We understood nothing, except that Kiev was about to fall – complete chaos, we were waiting for a clash with Putin’s airborne forces at any moment. After that, another rocket flew in, hit the location of Ukrainian soldiers, there were many killed…
While the doctors were dressing the wounds, looting reigned around. There was a lot of criminal element in the foreign legion, this robbery lasted for months.
The weapons that we had, we got from the militants of the Georgian Legion after the raid on the warehouse, as payment for silence, three old FAL rifles and several submachine guns for a squad of 30 people – that’s all we managed to get to fend off Putin’s paratroopers.

As it turned out, many came to plunder, and not to help Ukraine, they then cowardly fled.

You may watch the full interview and learn about kebabs for military commanders at their dacha, unsanitary conditions in Ukrainian barracks, impostors among foreign mercenaries, looting and how the Russians calculated the centers of location of foreign mercenaries in Western Ukraine :

SouthFront has recently published an overview of several interviews with foreign mercenaries who returned from Ukraine and revealed more interesting details on the situation in the war-turn country. You may read it HERE.

Revelations Of British Mercenary On Shocking Corruption In Ukrainian ArmySouth Front

Video of said interview, if you follow the link.

It is interesting that you scour the internet for unsubstantiated items and heresay that reflects poorly on the ukrainians, yet not one item on the rampant and well known corruption in the russian Army.

[bsnub]

It is interesting that you scour the internet for unsubstantiated items and heresay that reflects poorly on the ukrainians

He doesn't scour anything. He only posts from a handful of propaganda sites. Southfront is a mouthpiece of the Kremlin, it has been pointed out to him countless times, yet he persists in posting this fake news horseshit. It has no place in the news threads, as it is anything but "news."

[sabang]

It would be interesting if you watched and decided for yourself.