Ukraine war mega thread

[Norton]

The simple fact is too many people die in war and the exact number will never be known. Argueing over it is a waste of space and using dearhs as an indicator of who is winning is naive. Note Russia and China had the most losses and yet "won".

Just one of many sources that clearly state what I summarize above.

Historical Data
Second World War: fatalities per country 1939-1945


Published by
Aaron O'Neill, Aug 18, 2022


Estimates for the total death count of the Second World War generally range somewhere between 70 and 85 million people. The Soviet Union suffered the highest number of fatalities of any single nation, with estimates mostly falling between 22 and 27 million deaths. China then suffered the second greatest, at around 20 million, although these figures are less certain and often overlap with the Chinese Civil War. Over 80 percent of all deaths were of those from Allied countries, and the majority of these were civilians. In contrast, 15 to 20 percent were among the Axis powers, and the majority of these were military deaths, as shown in the death ratios of Germany and Japan.

It is believed that 60 to 67 percent of all deaths were civilian fatalities, largely resulting from war-related famine or disease, and war crimes or atrocities. Systematic genocide, extermination campaigns, and forced labor, particularly by the Germans, Japanese, and Soviets, led to the deaths of millions. In this regard, Nazi activities alone resulted in 17 million deaths, including six million Jews in what is now known as The Holocaust. Not only was the scale of the conflict larger than any that had come before, but the nature of and reasoning behind this loss make the Second World War stand out as one of the most devastating and cruelest conflicts in history.


Problems with these statistics


Although the war is considered by many to be the defining event of the 20th century, exact figures for death tolls have proven impossible to determine, for a variety of reasons. Countries such as the U.S. have fairly consistent estimates due to preserved military records and comparatively few civilian casualties, although figures still vary by source. For most of Europe, records are less accurate. Border fluctuations and the upheaval of the interwar period mean that pre-war records were already poor or non-existent for many regions. The rapid and chaotic nature of the war then meant that deaths could not be accurately recorded at the time, and mass displacement or forced relocation resulted in the deaths of many civilians outside of their homeland, which makes country-specific figures more difficult to find. Early estimates of the war’s fatalities were also taken at face value and formed the basis of many historical works; these were often very inaccurate, but the validity of the source means that the figures continue to be cited today, despite contrary evidence.


In comparison to Europe, estimate ranges are often greater across Asia, where populations were larger but pre-war data was in short supply. Many of the Asian countries with high death tolls were European colonies, and the actions of authorities in the metropoles, such as the diversion of resources from Asia to Europe, led to millions of deaths through famine and disease.

Additionally, over one million African soldiers were drafted into Europe’s armies during the war, yet individual statistics are unavailable for most of these colonies or successor states (notably Algeria and Libya). Thousands of Asian and African military deaths went unrecorded or are included with European or Japanese figures, and there are no reliable figures for deaths of millions from countries across North Africa or East Asia. Additionally, many concentration camp records were destroyed, and such records in Africa and Asia were even sparser than in Europe. While the Second World War is one of the most studied academic topics of the past century, it is unlikely that we will ever have a clear number for the lives lost in the conflict.

Second World War: deaths per country 1939-1945 | Statista.

[Pragmatic]

Ukraine hasn't so far given any reason for the ....."fresh start"

Ukraine Just Dismissed All Its Deputy Defense Ministers – Here’s Why

[Bettyboo]

[Norton]

I have seen that and simular as well as did the math myself. Hence the conclusion the Ukraine has enough soldiers.

[Troy]

Le Figaro headline yesterday gave a worrying hint of the number of Ukraine casualties...

Ukraine : seuls 10 à 20% des mobilisés de la région de Poltava sont toujours aptes au combat, témoigne un responsable

La guerre en Ukraine, dite de haute intensité, «consomme» énormément de soldats. Dans la seule région de Poltava (nord-est de l'Ukraine), «seuls 10 à 20 sur 100 [des mobilisés ukrainiens de l’automne dernier] sont restés, les autres ayant été tués, blessés ou handicapés», a révélé le lieutenant-colonel Vitaliy Berezhnyi, commissaire militaire dans cet oblast, auprès du conseil municipal de Poltava, cité par les médias ukrainiens regionnews et poltavo le 16 septembre.

Ukraine : seuls 10 a 20% des mobilises de la region de Poltava sont toujours aptes au combat, temoigne un responsable

Report based on Ukraine sources, which are linked.

I am just trying to add some balance to the over optimism I see in the Ukraine war threads. It is difficult to judge how long the West can support Ukraine before forcing them into a settlement with Russia by refusing to supply more aid.

[bsnub]

It is difficult to judge how long the West can support Ukraine before forcing them into a settlement with Russia by refusing to supply more aid.

Nothing of the sort will happen. A settlement will never bring peace, as the ruzzians would just attempt to rebuild, so they could attack Ukraine at a later date. The US propped up the Afghan government, waged war there for twenty years, so the answer to your question is a very long time. Ukraine is far more important to NATO than Afghanistan.

[Troy]

^ It wasn't a question. It was a statement.

Your view is that it is obvious and Ukraine will have the backing for years to come, irrespective of future elected governments or what happens on the battlefield.

I am less optimistic for Ukraine, depending on how the war continues.

If Ukraine is of such importance, will the war escalate? After all, US and Europe had troops on the ground in Afghanistan, your pick of involvement with lesser importance.

We'll have to see how much territory Ukraine manage to regain by the end of this year. As it stands, the lines look quite static and something major will have to happen next year. Otherwise the pressure for a settlement will continue to rise.

[OhOh]

Ukrainian Buk Missile Caused DPR Market Tragedy, US Media Report Affirms

19/09/2023

"As Volodymyr Zelensky arrives in the United States for a second time to plead for more aid, a US media report has unveiled a detailed investigation that debunks vehement assertions made by Ukraine’s President a few weeks ago.

Ukrainian President Zelensky’s visit to the US to attend the UN General Assembly meeting in New York, visit the White House, and meet with congressional leaders, comes against a sobering backdrop. Ukraine’s much-yped counteroffensive has been stuttering, while skepticism is mounting over endlessly propping up the Kiev regime among some Republican lawmakers.


On the eve of Zelensky’s arrival, the New York Times published an investigative piece into a missile strike on a marketplace in the town of Konstantinovka, in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), that occurred earlier in the month.

Evidence collected and analyzed by the US media outlet - including missile fragments, satellite imagery, witness accounts and social media posts - "strongly suggests" the 6 September missile strike on a market in Konstantinovka was the result of a Ukrainian missile fired by a Buk launch system, the report said.

Immediately after the strike, the Ukrainian authorities tried to prevent journalists from being able to access the impact area, but later visited the scene, interviewing witnesses and collecting parts of the weapon used. At that time, Volodymyr Zelensky blamed Russian “terrorists” for the attack and many media outlets swallowed this line.

The strike on September 6 had killed 15 people and left over 30 people wounded, according to Ukrainian officials. Zelensky was quick to describe it as a "Russian" attack on "a regular market and shops,” with numerous Western media outlets parroting the claim and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal vowing "fair retribution" for it. The strike occurred on the same day when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a surprise visit to Ukraine, announcing millions in new aid to Kiev.

However.

Evidence suggests it was a Ukrainian missile released from a Buk surface-to-air system that caused the market tragedy, as per the US report. A long hard look at eyewitness accounts, social media posts, analysis of video and weapon fragments, along with satellite imagery, “strongly suggests the catastrophic strike was the result of an errant Ukrainian air defense missile fired by a Buk launch system,” write the journalists.
Ukraine’s authorities had initially tried “to prevent journalists with the Times from accessing the missile debris and impact area in the strike’s immediate aftermath,” according to the report. However, they subsequently managed to reach the scene of the strike, talk to witnesses, and gather fragments of the projectile itself.

Ukrainian artillery fire had been reported in the area, according to a local Telegram group, minutes before the strike on the marketplace, the media report underscored. The missile strike on Konstantinovka came from the direction of Ukrainian-held territory, not from Russian lines, according to security camera footage seen by the journalists. Furthermore, they claim that “at least four pedestrians appear to simultaneously turn their heads toward the incoming sound” - in the direction of Ukrainian-held territory - when the missile approached. A reflection of the missile itself, coming in from the northwest, is visible in the cited footage, passing over parked cars.


Further analysis shows that the crater and point of detonation are also “consistent” with a missile traveling from the northwest. According to the media outlet’s reporters who were in the nearby town of Druzhkovka at the time of the missile strike on Konstantinovka, minutes before the attack, Ukraine’s military had launched two surface-to-air missiles toward the Russian front line."

Continues at:

Ukrainian Buk Missile Caused Market Tragedy Claims US Media Report

[helge]

On the eve of Zelensky’s arrival, the New York Times published an investigative piece into a missile strike on a marketplace in the town of Konstantinovka, in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), that occurred earlier in the month.

Evidence collected and analyzed by the US media outlet - including missile fragments, satellite imagery, witness accounts and social media posts - "strongly suggests" the 6 September missile strike on a market in Konstantinovka was the result of a Ukrainian missile fired by a Buk launch system, the report said.

Has been rumoured for some time now.


Whether it's was deliberate, maybe a war criminal could tell.

War is for cynics

BSnoob won't be happy with your post

We'll have to see how much territory Ukraine manage to regain by the end of this year. As it stands, the lines look quite static and something major will have to happen next year. Otherwise the pressure for a settlement will continue to rise.

Two times regime change first ?

Zelenskaya has written in to the ukranian constitution, that there can be no peacetalks with Putin.

Russians won't trust the present ukranian regime as a future neighbor/ partner and need guarrantees that can't be given.

Apart from total defeat....

Only the respective populations of Russia and Ukraine can rectify this dilemma

[Troy]

Two times regime change first ?

I reckon only one needs to change to stop this foolishness. Either would do for me...

[helge]

In other Ukraine news:

Zelenskaya wants Russia striped of veto right in the Security Council

Kevin McCarthy, House of Representatives, would like to know what the Ukraine uses US taxpayer money on.

And also which plans Ukraine has in regard to winning the war.


I'm sure he'll get an answer to his fair questions.


Zelenskaya left when Lavrov started his speech.

[helge]

Zelensky- Duda meeting cancelled

After Ukraine has taken Poland to court over the grain ban, Poland has warned Zelensky that "a lot of stuff that Ukraine needs" are passing through Poland.

All free services provided to ukrainian refugees living in Poland will stop in 2024.

Ukraine then threatens with embargo on certain polish goods




That's not good

The comediette can't reach the ground

[pickel]

Zelenskaya wants Russia striped of veto right in the Security Council

He's not the only one.

[bsnub]

It wasn't a question. It was a statement.

I do not fucking care either way. It is repetitive shit.

If Ukraine is of such importance, will the war escalate?

I hope so. It is time to kick the ruzzians into the dustbin of irrelevance for good. I am not alone in this thought.

After all, US and Europe had troops on the ground in Afghanistan, your pick of involvement with lesser importance.

It was an example, nothing more and no shit was of lesser importance, that was my fucking point.

He's not the only one.

Hear! Hear!

I see two types of posters in Helga and Troy, an appeaser and a collaborator. Apparent bedfellows.

[Norton]

Zelenskaya wants Russia striped of veto right in the Security Council

I would go further and dump the whole notion of having any nation with veto power. If the majority of general assembly votes in favor of something. let it be done.

[bsnub]

[bsnub]

Storm shadow has done something big.

More info inbound as it is confirmed.

[bsnub]

The rubber band continues to be stretched...

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA

[Troy]

Russia and USA are the main users of the veto. I also think it should be scrapped but may have been a compromise to form UN initially. Needs some reforms to bring it into the modern era but too many could make it even less effective.

[Troy]

I do not fucking care either way. It is repetitive shit.

Everything that you don't agree with is just shit to you Private Snubby.

Looks like the US, possibly Ukraine's biggest ally, is getting tired of the pleads for more and more equipment...


Volodymyr Zelenskiy is finding his latest visit to Washington a much tougher occasion than the hero’s welcome he was given nine months ago.

Zelenskiy was given a standing ovation when he delivered an address to a joint sitting of Congress in December. This time, he addressed the Senate in a closed session, but House Republicans turned down a request to address both chambers again. They are also reported to have turned down an administration briefing on Ukraine.

Zelenskiy arrived on Capitol Hill in the midst of a bitter spending battle that could trigger a government shutdown, and he faced difficult conversations when he met congressional leaders behind closed doors. Republicans have proposed a stopgap bill that does not include funding for Ukraine, an omission that the Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, called “an insult to Ukraine and a gift to Putin”. “I cannot think of a worse welcome for Zelenskiy,” Schumer said.

The Republican leadership in the Senate is broadly pro-Ukrainian, but the party is more divided in the House, where the speaker, Kevin McCarthy, faces a restive group on the right hostile to military support for Kyiv. McCarthy made clear to his party that he would approach Biden’s pending request for an additional $24bn in support for Ukraine with considerable scepticism.

“Is Zelenskiy elected to Congress? Is he our president? I don’t think I have to commit anything and I think I have questions for him,” McCarthy told ABC News.
“Where’s the accountability on the money we’ve already spent? What is the plan for victory? I think that’s what the American public wants to know,” McCarthy added.
Democrats too said they would have questions if the Ukrainian delegation came with requests for drone technology. Party leaders are wary of providing weapon systems that could be used to strike Russian territory, and congressional sources say Zelenskiy will be quizzed on Kyiv’s role in recent strikes on Moscow and other targets deep within Russia.

After his visit to the Hill, Zelenskiy was scheduled to cross the Potomac to the Pentagon for a meeting with the defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, and the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Gen Mark Milley.

Then in mid-afternoon, he is due at the White House to meet Joe Biden. The US president is expected to announce a new $325m military aid package on the occasion of the visit, but the package will reportedly not include the 300km-range Atacms missiles Ukraine has been asking for.
...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...h-toll-strikes

[Norton]

Most Americans oppose Congress authorizing additional funding to support Ukraine in its war with Russia, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, as the public splits over whether the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine.


Overall, 55% say the US Congress should not authorize additional funding to support Ukraine vs. 45% who say Congress should authorize such funding.

CNN Poll: Majority of Americans oppose more US aid for Ukraine in war with Russia | CNN Politics

[Hugh Cow]

^^Not unexpected. It appears to me that Americans like to see a quick "shock and awe" followed by victory and a ticket tape parade through new york with everyone waving the flag.
9/11 an example of the shock and trauma felt in America with monuments and anniversaries remembered for something that was basically a daily occurrence in places like London Rotterdam and Stalingrad and eventually Berlin in WW2
.The US population appears to me to have always been mostly isolationist. At a recent survey over half have never owned a passport. Many Americans never get outside of America and have a very stilted view of the rest of the world. We only have to look at their late arrival in both world wars. Two and a half years after the start of world war 1 in april 1917 an involvement of 1.5 years of the 4 year war and more than 2 years after the start of world war 2. America's rise to power after the world wars has seen it less reluctant to intervene as it has wider world interests to protect. Even so, it's track record is not great from Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan all of which could be said were either defeats, unsuccessful to pretty disastrous in the case of Iraq.
In saying that America is also one of the main reasons there has been no world wars in the last nearly 80 years.
I have remarked previously that Ukraine will need to make substantial progress by the end of 2023. In many news reports and comments the american population are already getting war weary and I would suggest Zelensky has up to June Next year and probably before then when congress will start to extricate the USA from support to Ukraine. The American poulation are in love with being the world leaders but are unwilling to pay for the privilege.
I agree with Troy that without substantial progress with an end in sight Zelensky will be forced to compromise by the USA and the EU will have little stomach for it without "big brother" backing them up. I believe Putin knows on past record there is a limit to America's aid before the population start to agitate for an end to U.S. involvement. In the end The American population's penchant for isolationist policies will see a much less Hawkish approach from Congress in the near future IMHO.

[bsnub]

It appears to me that Americans like to see a quick "shock and awe" followed by victory and a ticket tape parade through new york with everyone waving the flag.

Who wouldn't? That said American voters allowed the Afghan government to be propped up for 20 years.

I have remarked previously that Ukraine will need to make substantial progress by the end of 2023.

I disagree.

In many news reports and comments the american population are already getting war weary

BS, Most in America have no clue about what is happening in Ukraine and are far more interested in discussing (American) sports. Most of those that are in open opposition to funding the war are far right trumpanzees most more moderated Republicans and Democrats are strongly in support of continuing aid. It is important to note that most of the aid given is not new expenditure anyway, it is a drawdown of old equipment that was most likely going to cost taxpayers money to destroy anyway.

If you think that there will be some grassroots protest movement to stop aid to Ukraine, you are sorely mistaken.

[helge]

I see two types of posters in Helga and Troy, an appeaser and a collaborator. Apparent bedfellows.

That's not nice to Troy

He has hopes similar to yours.

Only he isn't a tosser

(who's who btw ?)

It is important to note that most of the aid given is not new expenditure anyway, it is a drawdown of old equipment that was most likely going to cost taxpayers money to destroy anyway.

Well atleast it works

Too many of the Leopard 1s donated by Denmark and Germany doesn't.

Denmark want to buy T-72s for the next donation.

And some Leopard 1s

[Troy]

will the war escalate?

I hope so.

That's why you will always remain Private Snubby...so full of war porn, you forget the larger picture.


Failing to use the gifts provided in the way advised and pissing off his allies is a good way of losing support. Who's next after Russia and Poland to give him the middle finger.