Ukraine war mega thread

[Troy]

^ Russian 7th Guards Mountain unit were also redeployed to the region.

Both should be there by now to make things difficult for Ukraine.

[bsnub]

The 76th Guards were redeployed to the region.

They are getting shwacked and they have been deployed there for several weeks. Have you not seen any of the twitter footage?

You predicted Tokmak would be in Ukraine hands by the end of the current counteroffensive.

I did and if it does not happen I will be the first to admit it and eat humble pie. The Ukrainians are writing their own playbook in how to fight war, and it is different from the way the US military fights. We (the US) tend to achieve air supremacy first, and then we rapidly advance our ground forces with the priority of taking ground. Ukraine can not do that, so it is preferring to fight an attritional war against the ruzzians...

You have also claimed numerous times that the Russians have been so badly mauled they will offer little resistance.

They are in bad shape and this is a fact. The way they fight is as stupid as it gets, they spent months creating fortified positions in the south only to leave those fortifications and mount these insane futile assaults that result in massive casualties and eventual retreat. This is not a sustainable way to fight a war for any army.

That said, there have been a string of major strategic victories in the theater over the last week or two, and they are significant. The SBS have now trained over 2000 special forces who are now in country and are wreaking havoc. They seized strategic oil platforms, landed in Crimea and destroyed an S-400 radar, allowing storm shadow cruise missiles to destroy the launcher, they attacked Sevastopol destroying key naval assets to include a Kilo class submarine as well as warships (yes the SBS trained Ukrainians were in Sevastopol). That is just a thumbnail of what is going on...

The 72nd ruzzian brigade in Andriivka was encircled by the Ukrainians and wiped out in recent days. This leads to the possible future encirclement of Bakhmut.

So ya lots going on that led General Ben Hodges to say this...

In the words of Ben Hodges, a retired U.S. Army general and the former commander of Army forces in Europe, “the Ukrainian general staff is running rings around the Russian general staff.”

[bsnub]

Russian 7th Guards Mountain unit were also redeployed to the region.

Both should be there by now to make things difficult for Ukraine.

The unit was decapitated.



A senior Russian airborne commander has reportedly been killed in Ukraine, according to the latest update from the Institute for the Study of War, as Moscow's elite units continue to suffer high rates of attrition.The U.S.-based think tank cited pro-Russian military Telegram channels and the Russian independent Mediazona outlet in its report that Vasily Popov, the commander of the 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment—a unit under the command of the 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division—was killed during fighting at an unknown location in Ukraine.

The first to report Popov's death was milblogger Egor Guzenko, who runs the pro-war "Thirteenth" Telegram channel. He reported the loss in a voice note posted to the channel on September 10.

Popov, the voice note said, "only recently took office." The note described the commander as a good man and a hero. Guzenko added: "I feel sorry for him. Three more guys died with him, and I feel sorry for them." Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.

Mediazona cited leaks from Russian databases in its report that Popov was 38 years old when he died, and that he was recorded as a captain and a major. In 2021, the outlet said, Popov studied at the General Air Force Academy, and may have been promoted to a higher rank before being given command of the 247th Regiment.

The regiment is based in Stavropol, a southern Russian city some 250 miles east of the Kerch Strait Bridge and the occupied Crimean Peninsula. Its parent 7th Division is headquartered in the Black Sea port city of Novorossiysk.

ISW reported that Vasily Popov likely succeeded Pyotr Popov as commander of the 247th in August or September 2023. If his death is confirmed, Vasily Popov would be the second commander of the unit to be killed in action since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Colonel Konstantin Zizevsky was killed in southern Ukraine in spring 2022.

Mediazona reported that the 247th has suffered severe casualties across 18 months of combat in Ukraine. "In the first week of the war, the regiment lost at least 60 people who died while trying to storm Nikolaev," it wrote, using the Russian name for the Ukrainian Black Sea port city of Mykolaiv, where Russia's southern advance was halted in spring 2022.

The unit may have sustained casualties in the series of Ukrainian attacks against the Russian-held Kherson International Airport at Chornobaivka. The 247th is also believed to have been mauled in the defense of the Donetsk settlement of Staromaiorske in July.

ISW noted that elements of the 247th are fighting on the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia border, which has been one area of intense Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts since early June.

"Relatively elite" airborne units, ISW said, "are conducting limited counterattacks in critical sectors of the front, and Vasily Popov's death supports ISW's assessment that these counterattacks will likely attrit these units further."

The airborne—known as the VDV, the acronym of the Russian Vozdushno Desantniye Voyska—are among Russia's best-trained, best-equipped, and most-experienced forces. They are trained to lead Russian offensive operations and tasked with capturing and holding vital strategic targets.

Their role at the tip of Moscow's spear meant VDV units sustained high casualties in the early stages of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

European military officials have previously told Newsweek that vanguard VDV formations suffered up to 40 percent casualty rates in the opening months of Moscow's so-called "special military operation." Among those mangled was the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, earmarked to lead a hypothetical future Russian invasion of NATO's Baltic states.

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-eli...rborne-1827271

[Norton]

The unit was decapitated.

Not funny bro...

[bsnub]

Not funny bro...

Yes it is. I want to see as many ruzzian scum planted on Ukrainian soil as possible. These scumbags did not have to do this, they deserve everything they get.

[Troy]

It is fortifications that have been holding back the Ukrainians, not some fantasist "fighting force" that you keep referring too, now that the Ukrainians are pushing past those fortifications they are starting to move forward.

ISW noted that elements of the 247th are fighting on the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia border, which has been one area of intense Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts since early June.

"Relatively elite" airborne units, ISW said, "are conducting limited counterattacks in critical sectors of the front, and Vasily Popov's death supports ISW's assessment that these counterattacks will likely attrit these units further."

Well, there you have it, contradicted by your own posts.

[Bettyboo]

It seems that "the West" is, and has been from the start, happy to play the long game and let Russia grind down, slowly lose the war, damage their economy, etc. As soon as the Russians spent months digging in defensive lines, the war was going to go long (without a lot of extra hitech equipment being given to Ukraine). Generally, Ukraine is constantly making small gains with some larger attacks taking out S400s or ships, etc. I'm not sure how quickly the Russians are replacing equipment, but losing an S400 must be a big loss; they are expensive and time consuming to make. The Russians moving troops around the front lines or moving S300/S400 systems to protect airfields in Russia then Moscow then Crimea, etc, is very problematic for them - they always have holes which the Ukrainians can (and do) take advantage of. Personal losses and equipment losses on the Russian side are huge.

On the Ukrainian side, it'll take decades to rebuild their country, but that will be done close to or in the EU.

Crimea is an interesting area now because the Russians will increasingly struggle to protect it. Every s400 system, ship, submarine, etc that gets destroyed in Crimea will take ages to replace and cost a lot of money in a failing economy. Buying artillery, maybe even bullets and AK47s from North Korea is desperate stuff, imho. But, the Russians, as they've done throughout history will just throw new bodies at the effort for years if need be. Maybe Ukraine can take Crimea in the next 6 months to a year? Maybe Ukraine can cut through the centre and make it to the coast in the next 6 months to a year? Who knows??? Russia will not be winning that seems certain; it's just degrees of losing, imho. Of course, Ukraine is losing a lot too.

[helge]

This thread has basically just become a place overrun by Helga's drunk, incoherent babbling.

Hey !

I'm only here to point out your and Hugh Cow's ignorant posting.

I'm kind of the TD Ukraine ombudsman.


When Troy and yourself flings russian division names, I'm "not interested".

Hell, I don't even know the names/titles of the 10 brigades, that Ukraine got left, either.


Will there be an winter offensive down south..this year, BSnob ?

[Norton]

Will there be an winter offensive down south..this year, BSnob ?

Most certainly....Lockheed and my old employer Raytheon to name but 2.

[pickel]

I'm only here to point out your and Hugh Cow's ignorant posting.

When Troy and yourself flings russian division names, I'm "not interested".

Sounds a bit like "ignorance" to me, Helga.

[helge]

Sounds a bit like "ignorance" to me, Helga.

I'm sure it does

I don't know the names of the brigades, the commanders, where the headquarters are located etc.

How many medals are given, in person or posthumous.


If that is ignorance, so be it.

I'll leave that to your sort, Pickel

[bsnub]

Well, there you have it, contradicted by your own posts.

What are you talking about? The ISW article is confirming what I am saying...

"Relatively elite" airborne units, ISW said, "are conducting limited counterattacks in critical sectors of the front, and Vasily Popov's death supports ISW's assessment that these counterattacks will likely attrit these units further."

The way they fight is as stupid as it gets, they spent months creating fortified positions in the south only to leave those fortifications and mount these insane futile assaults that result in massive casualties and eventual retreat. This is not a sustainable way to fight a war for any army.

The ISW referring to the ruzzians not the Ukrainians. Good lord, how could you miss that one? Your attempt to discredit my posts are turning laughable, and I am not sure what your motivation is, frankly. The unit was just decapitated.

[bsnub]

I'm only here to point out your and Hugh Cow's ignorant posting.

You do nothing of the sort, you are a clown and nothing more.

If that is ignorance, so be it.

So you are just here to be a twat, basically.

[Troy]

Snubby, you implied that the Russians had no fighting forces to speak of and it was only fortifications holding the Ukraine soldiers back. Read what you said again you stupid fucking numbskull.

I see more Russian soldiers have been redeployed to the sector, this time to fortify the NW sector. It is still possible for Russian forces to hit hard from the NW and NE and cut off the Ukraine troops if Ukraine are not careful.

This is going to be a hard grind and a full scale drive to Tokmak, without keeping the sides of the breakthrough fully defended, could lead to disaster.

[bsnub]

Snubby, you implied that the Russians had no fighting forces to speak of and it was only fortifications holding the Ukraine soldiers back.

That is absolutely not what I said. I said that it was the fortifications that are slowing down the Ukrainians and that once the Ukrainians are able to reach the ruzzian trench lines they win the fights.

It is the ruzzians who are leaving their trench lines and going on futile frontal assaults, where they are being heavily attrited and that is exactly what the ISW was referring too. You cherry-picked the article I posted and omitted these key points...

ISW reported that Vasily Popov likely succeeded Pyotr Popov as commander of the 247th in August or September 2023. If his death is confirmed, Vasily Popov would be the second commander of the unit to be killed in action since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Colonel Konstantin Zizevsky was killed in southern Ukraine in spring 2022.

Mediazona reported that the 247th has suffered severe casualties across 18 months of combat in Ukraine. "In the first week of the war, the regiment lost at least 60 people who died while trying to storm Nikolaev," it wrote, using the Russian name for the Ukrainian Black Sea port city of Mykolaiv, where Russia's southern advance was halted in spring 2022.

The unit may have sustained casualties in the series of Ukrainian attacks against the Russian-held Kherson International Airport at Chornobaivka. The 247th is also believed to have been mauled in the defense of the Donetsk settlement of Staromaiorske in July.

ISW noted that elements of the 247th are fighting on the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia border, which has been one area of intense Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts since early June.

The unit is a trash heap that has been getting its shit packed in for months.

[helge]

I was only talking about the fucking US and ruzzia you imbecile

OK, but hard to guess, when you post this:

When you are talking about Imperialism, nothing comes close to ruzzia.

the only reason you post in these threads as a useful idiot is to troll and derail the thread of any meaningful discussion.

Not at all

The only reason is to piss you off

[helge]

You do nothing of the sort, you are a clown and nothing more.

I am aware of that.

And that's always something

This is going to be a hard grind and a full scale drive to Tokmak, without keeping the sides of the breakthrough fully defended, could lead to disaster.

Don't bother.

I have ofcourse mentioned this to BSnubs

He told me that "You never read Clausewitz"

[bsnub]

SOUTH BAKHMUT /1330 UTC 17 SEPT/ Ukrainian forces are now reported to be in control at Klischiivka and Andrivka. Heavy fighting continues at Kurdiumivka. UKR’s operations in the Bakhmut Area of Operations (AO) continue be assessed as fixative and attritional. Fighting N and S of the urban is attriting RU materiel and manpower to no purpose.

Despite Bakhmut’s minor status as a transportation hub, with the intersection of HWYs and a N-S railroad, Russian forces cannot advance on either the H-32 or M-03 HWYs as long as UKR firmly holds the natural bastion of Chasiv War. RU losses in the Bakhmut AO are believed to be in excess of 40,000.

Russia's continued fixation on the city, and UKR’s adroit use of continued ‘pressure’ attacks have served to divert and fix in place considerable RU military assets that could be used elsewhere.

UKR armed forces spokesperson @SarahAshtonLV reports today that by contesting Bakhmut, UKR has pinned more than 52 thousand Russian personnel, approximately 274 tanks, a thousand armored vehicles and 150 artillery systems into what is a useless fight over a place of zero strategic or tactical significance.

The commander of one of the elite military formations of the Russian Armed Forces - brigade commander of the 31st Airborne Assault Brigade, Colonel Andrei Kondrashkin, was killed. This was reported by the famous traitor and one of the Russian field commanders Alexander Khodakovsky. The 31st Air Assault Brigade took part in all the major battles of the war, starting with the landing at Gostomel airport.

Now the 31st brigade is near Bakhmut, and specifically Kondrashkin was carrying out the task of repelling the attacks of the 3rd assault brigade and the units attached to it south of the village of Andreevka, in order to prevent the remnants of the 72nd motorized rifle brigade, which our soldiers were finishing off in the village itself, from being captured. However, Kondrashkin was unable to complete the task; a number of strong points of the 31st Airborne Assault Brigade were completely destroyed, and Ukrainian attack aircraft broke into the village through Kondrashkin’s defense sector.

The circumstances of how exactly Kondrashkin was destroyed during these battles are not yet known. But the liquidation of the commander of one of the Russian strike formations is a serious achievement. In the battles for Andreevka, as is now known, a large number of command personnel of the 57th, 72nd, 85th motorized rifle and 31st air assault brigades of the Russian Armed Forces were destroyed

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1703556536755200198

[Troy]

Le Monde is reporting estimated losses on both sides are heavy with Russian casualties around 300,000 and Ukraine about 200,000 with another 40,000 civilians killed.

[bsnub]

Le Monde

Any mention of how they obtained such information, or is it another case of waiving around numbers with no hard data?

[bsnub]

Well, erm, actually you do.

Ok bud, so let's shift gears. If the ruzzians are doing so well, how come they are the ones that have been losing ground consistently just about everywhere on the front?

I am having difficulty linking the logic in those two sentences.

Well, you are a moron, so there is that.

[Troy]

^ Based on Biden administration estimates.

The point is that Ukraine forces have taken heavy losses in sevwral areas too.

[bsnub]

Based on Biden administration estimates.

Umm ok. I really am not buying that one, if that was the case, the right wing wacko's here would be all over that.

The point is that Ukraine forces have taken heavy losses in sevwral areas too.

You tend to like to bang away at that point. Of course, they have, but they also do not shell the rear of their own offensive force to keep them from retreating. How familiar are you with Soviet military history and doctrine? The meat grinder is real. The ruzzian KIA is close to 300k for sure, that number in regard to Ukraine is grossly overinflated.

[helge]

The ruzzian KIA is close to 300k for sure, that number in regard to Ukraine is grossly overinflated.

?

And the Biden folks would inflate the ukrainian losses because of.........?

It's more clear why they would exaggerate the russian numbers, .....if they did

[helge]

6 Vice Ministers of Defense has been fired.

Among them,Hanna Maljar, who is the only one I have heard of.

Ukraine hasn't so far given any reason for the ....."fresh start"