Ukraine war mega thread

[kingwilly]

^
I hate to break it to you helga, but the US is not fighting in this war, the Ukrainians are. The Ukrainians are defending themselves from an illegal invasion by a dictator than can't seem to cope with the fact that a sovereign nation wants to break the shackles and move closer to the West and a democratic society. Given the choice of US help or not, they wisely choose the former.

Easier for Helge to pretend it’s all the evil West’s fault. The same West that has afforded him the quality of life he has now.

[helge]

. The same West that has afforded him the quality of life he has now.

....

[Stretchy]

So bsnub, tell us more about Evgeny Prigozhin being a western intelligence asset. Your post in the news thread was deleted by the mods. Post your info here. A link will suffice, even if it to a game of thrones episode.

[Hugh Cow]

There were alternatives.

Innocent civilians ?

Everybody seems to forget the many thousands of young men who are getting slaughtered for....nothing.

Noone is forgetting Helge, but when one side enters a foreign country and kills and bombs its citizens retaliation should be expected. I dont know the percentage of willing Russian participants so it is hard to sympathise with all.

[OhOh]

JUNE 24, 2023 BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR

The rise and fall of a Russian oligarch

"The Kremlin leadership has acted decisively to meet the threat of an armed insurrection by the Russian oligarch and self-styled ‘founder’ of Wagner Group of military contractors, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

In a series of videos released on Friday, Prigozhin alleged that the Russian government’s justifications for military intervention in Ukraine were based on lies. He accused the Russian Defence Ministry under minister Sergei Shoigu of “trying to deceive society and the president and tell us how there was crazy aggression from Ukraine and that they were planning to attack us with the whole of NATO.” He claimed that regular Russian armed forces had launched missile strikes against Wagner forces, killing a “huge” number.

Prigozhin declared: “The council of commanders of PMC Wagner has made a decision – the evil that the military leadership of the country brings must be stopped.” He vowed to march on Moscow and hold those responsible to account.

The Federal Security Service or FSB (formerly the KGB) has called it “an armed rebellion”; Wagner’s headquarters in St. Petersburg has been sealed; Prosecutor General’s Office said “this crime is punishable by imprisonment for a term of 12 to 20 years.”

In an address to the nation at 10.00 am onMoscow time on Saturday, President Vladimir Putin strongly condemned the developments describing it as “an armed mutiny” and calling for “consolidation of all forces.” Putin drew a parallel with the insurrection in Petrograd (St. Petersburg) in February 1917 that led to the Bolshevik Revolution and a protracted civil war with large-scale western military intervention, including the United States, “while all sorts of political adventurers and foreign forces profited from the situation by tearing the country apart to divide it.”

He promised, “Decisive actions will also be taken to stabilise the situation in Rostov-on-Don (700 kms south of Moscow where Prigozhin is located with Wagner fighters.) It remains difficult, the work of civil and military authorities is actually blocked.”

Putin vowed that those “who organised and prepared a military mutiny, who took up arms against his comrades – betrayed Russia,” will be punished. Significantly, Putin never once mentioned Prigozhin’s name.

This face-off has been in the making for several months and is traceable to tensions in the working relations between the Wagner forces and the Russian ministry of defence, Prigozhin’s personal antipathy towards Defence Minister Shoigu and the Russian top brass, his bloated ego and overvaulting political ambition, and, most certainly, his business interests.

Prigozhin has crossed the red line that Putin famously drew right at the beginning of his rule in the Kremlin in the summer of 2000 in a historic meeting in the Kremlin with 21 of the richest men in Russia — the rapacious “oligarchs,” as Russians had come to derisively call them — who had risen seemingly out of nowhere, amassing spectacular fortunes as the country around them descended into chaos through shady deals, outright corruption, and even murder and had seized control of much of Russia’s economy, and, increasingly, its fledgling democracy. At the closed-door meeting, Putin told them, face to face, who was really in charge in Russia.

Putin offered the oligarchs a deal: ‘Bend to the Russian state’s authority, stay out of the way of Russia’s governance or domestic politics, and you can keep your mansions, super-yachts, private jets, and multibillion-dollar corporations.’ In the coming years, those oligarchs who reneged on this deal paid a heavy price. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, worth worth $15 billion, and once ranked 16th on Forbes list of billionaires, is the most celebrated case, who harboured political ambition and now lives in exile in the US, lavishly funding American think tanks and Russophobic activists spewing venom against Putin.

But, on the other hand, the “loyalists” who stayed back went on to became filthy rich and live off the fat of the land like nobody’s business. Prigozhin, a man of humble origin, stayed back to amass great wealth. In a way, he symbolises all that has gone terribly wrong with Russia’s post-Soviet reincarnation.

However, the dividing line is often blurred as even those who stayed back took care to keep a significant part of their loot in western countries, in bank vaults or as moveable and immoveable assets beyond the reach of Russian law. Which means, the oligarchs are also highly vulnerable to Western blackmail. Unsurprisingly, the western capitals fancy that the oligarchs could lend a hand to undermine the Kremlin regime from within or create a social implosion to destabilise Russia and throw into disarray its war effort in Ukraine.

Prigozhin’s antecedents are anybody’s guess. But it is entirely conceivable that this man who is credited with extra-large influence in the Kremlin’s corridors of power has been in the cross-hairs of the western intelligence. Prigozhin is worth at least $1.2 billion in personal wealth.

Prigozhin was also a trailblazer of sorts, having got into the hugely lucrative profession of managing a quasi-state company of mercenaries who are trained and equipped to act as military contractors in hotspots abroad in countries where Russia has vital interests commercially, politically or militarily.

Moscow is no longer in the Soviet-era business of promoting national liberation movements. But it also cannot be impervious to the regime changes that Russia’s main western opponents routinely promote to serve their geopolitical interests in the so-called Global South (or in the ex-Soviet republics.) Thus, Russia has found an ingenious Third Way by creating a military wing somewhat fashioned after the notorious French Foreign League. The Wagner Group has proved to be extremely effective in Sahel region and elsewhere in Africa as a provider of security for the established governments. The erstwhile colonial powers no longer have a field day in dictating terms to the African governments.

Suffice to say, the taming of Prigozhin has proved to be difficult, although Russian intelligence would have been aware that western intelligence was in touch with him. Indeed, his increasingly defiant public posturing was becoming a serious distraction for the Kremlin. One possibility is that Russian intelligence gave him a long rope to hang himself. Equally, Kremlin’s preference would have been to pacify and co-opt him in the war effort. Putin even met him.

In his address to the nation, Putin stopped short of alleging any “foreign hand” in the current developments, and put his finger on “Excessive ambitions and personal interests [having] led to treason.” But, rather explicitly — more than once — Putin also highlighted that it will be foreign powers inimical to Russia who are the ultimate beneficiaries of Prigozhin’s activity.

Significantly, the FSB has directly accused Prigozhin of treason, which could only have been on the basis of intelligence inputs and with Putin’s approval. The fact that Prigozhin’s mutiny comes bang in the middle of the Ukrainian offensive when the war is nearing a tipping point in Russia’s favour must also be carefully weighed in.

In the final analysis, this macabre attempt at mutiny won’t fly. Oligarchs are a detested lot in the Russian opinion. Any western hopes of staging an insurrection in Russia and a regime change under an oligarch’s banner will be an absurd idea, to say the least.

The immediate challenge will be to isolate Prigozhin and his hardcore associates from the bulk of Wagner fighters. Putin has praised the Wagner fighters’ contribution in Ukraine war. The charismatic commander in Ukraine, General Sergey Surovikin has made a public appeal to the Wagner troops to submit to the authorities “before it is too late,” return to their barracks, and address their grievances peacefully. But in a near term, a systemic approach is needed to integrate Wagner Group, which after all proved its worth every bit in the war of attrition in Bakhmut."

The rise and fall of a Russian oligarch - Indian Punchline

[helge]

^
Good one

[bsnub]

Indian Punchline

Good one

[hallelujah]

^
Good one

Really? He's an Indian ambassador that grew up in a family of avowed communists and he spent much of his time working in the region and sucking Russian cock.

And you think it's a good one?

[helge]

Surprised that you read it. Well done

You don't have to agree with all or anything actually, to aplaud a well presented piece.


You must know that.

I have greened you at times

[hallelujah]

Surprised that you read it. Well done

You don't have to agree with all or anything actually, to aplaud a well presented piece.


You must know that.

I have greened you at times

Wow. I'm honoured.

[helge]

You should be

[kingwilly]

Oh joy. oh no is back.

And helge is no longer pretending to be impartial.

[bsnub]

And helge is no longer pretending to be impartial.

He is quite disingenuous, isn't he.

[helge]

And helge is no longer pretending to be impartial.

Was I ever ?

Always thought you were a primitive

[OhOh]

Some are reporting the Wagner troops are returning to their previous battle line positions and the Wagner group owner has been exiled to Belarus.

Here is one opinion/possible outcomes.

[Troy]

Some are reporting the Wagner troops are returning to their previous battle line positions and the Wagner group owner has been exiled to Belarus.

It was reported by the Kremlin.

Do you think this episode might have weakened Putin's position a little?

[OhOh]

^
Some are suggesting it was an attempt by xxx at a "Moscow Maiden", others a ploy to reveal NaGaStan's intent to start an attack on Belarus.

Both would suggest otherwise.



"It's to early to tell"

[Troy]

^ "Some" are just talking bollocks...

[OhOh]

Here is part of a lengthy situation review.

Prigozhin’s Gambit—Treason by any other name

SCOTT RITTER

JUN 24

Authorization


One of the issues that had to be solved:

The legal status of the Wagner.

"The origins of the private military contract company, Wagner, are murky, but appear to be linked to the events of 2014 in the Donbas and the need for the Russian government to create a vehicle for the provision of relevant military expertise and material to the ethnic Russian resistance in the Donbas that would not conflict with Russian constitutional prohibitions against the deployment of regular Russian Army personnel on foreign soil. From its inception, Wagner was an adjunct of Russian Military Intelligence (GRU), and responsive to the commands of the Russian General Staff. This placed Wagner in the shadowy space between being an official agent of government policy and an independently-funded private military contractor.

Following the initiation of the SMO, the role played by Wagner in the Donbas conflict expanded, transitioning from an advisory capacity to major combatant by expanding the scope and scale of the Wagner presence. Wagner grew into a Corps-sized formation equipped with heavy weapons, including armor and artillery, as well as fixed-wing fighter aircraft, and was assigned responsibility for a section of the frontlines which included the twin-salt mining towns of Soledar and Bakhmut, both of which had been heavily fortified by the Ukrainian military. The bloody fighting for the Soledar-Bakhmut complex, which became known by the sobriquet “the meatgrinder,” helped transform Wagner into a legendary combat force in the minds of most Russians, and elevated Prigozhin’s profile considerably.

Wagner achieved its well-deserved martial reputation largely because it was able to operate independent of the suffocating bureaucracy of the Russian military. Thus liberated, Wagner was able to best exploit the experience and skill of its veteran fighters, streamlining command and control and tactical decision-making to enable Wagner to seize and maintain operational initiative, allowing Wagner to dominate the battlefield. While Wagner had operational independence, it received its operational tasking from the Russian General Staff, which also provided Wagner with the weapons, ammunition, fuel, and other logistical sustainment necessary to carry out its assigned mission.

The legal status of Wagner was secure so long as the territory it operated on was not Russian. This changed, however, in the aftermath of the September 2022 referendum which saw the Donbas transition from being an independent entity to being part of Russia. Wagner was able to maintain its unique status during the political transition of the Donbas to full Russian constitutional control, but once this transition was completed, sometime in early 2023, reality came home to roost.

Logistical requisitions, which used to be treated as special requests approved as part of the general support provided by Russia to the Donbas, were not treated as part of the routine logistical establishment of the Russian ministry of Defense. From a practical standpoint, this meant that the quantities of ammunition, especially in terms of artillery shells, was cut back to reflect the “norm” used to support military formations of a similar size. Wagner tactics, however, were contingent upon the ability to support their operations with overwhelming fire support. Denied the quantities of ammunition they were used to receiving, Wagner’s assault detachment began to take heavy casualties, prompting Prigozhin to initiate a public feud with both Shoigu and Gerasimov, whom he accused of incompetence and corruption.

Prigozhin’s antics, which were played out in intimate detail on social media, caught the attention of pro-Ukrainian information warfare specialists, who began promoting the narrative of Prigozhin—a former convict with zero political experience—assuming a leadership position in Russia. Prigozhin himself seemed to feed off this notion. While publicly denying any such ambition, Prigozhin continued his public trolling of Shoigu and Gerasimov. The vitriol became so intense that Putin was compelled to summon both men to the Kremlin, where they were read the riot act by an irate Russian President and told in no uncertain terms to cease and desist or pay the consequences. Putin also at this time had Shoigu step back from being the overseer of Wagner logistical support, instead turning that task over to General Sergey Surovikin, a senior military commander overseeing the air component of the SMO.

In retrospect, this was a mistake, as it only reinforced the notion in Prigozhin’s mind that if he made a big enough scene, Putin would yield to his desires.

At some point in time, Prigozhin appears to have gone off the rails completely. Even after the presidential intervention, Prigozhin continued his public feud with both Shoigu and Gerasimov, at one point threatening to pull Wagner out of Bakhmut before that battle was concluded. Prigozhin went out of his way to promote himself as a frontline commander, appearing in videos he published on Telegram visiting the Wagner fighters on the frontline, often under fire, and then contrasting this with what Prigozhin articulated as the timid behavior of Shoigu and Gerasimov, whom Prigozhin mocked for managing the SMO from the safety of bunkers far from the zone of conflict.

At some point in time Prigozhin’s antics caught the attention of Ukrainian intelligence, and their British and US counterparts. The narcissistic need for attention, coupled with grandiose notions of self-importance, made Prigozhin an ideal candidate for recruitment by a hostile foreign intelligence service. A financial component—basic greed—can be added to this behavioral model as well. In addition to seeking to bring Wagner under the operational control of the Ministry of Defense through the rationing of ammunition, Defense Minister Shoigu announced that Wagner fighters would have to sign legally binding contracts with the Russian Minister of Defense to allow them to continue to serve in their capacity as a combat unit. The reason for this was the constitutional ban on private military companies operating on Russian soil. The Russian government was willing to turn a blind eye to this legality while the battle for Bakhmut raged, but once the “meatgrinder” shut down, and Wagner was withdrawn from the front for a period of well-deserved rest and refitting, the Ministry of Defense announced that before Wagner could resume its combat operations (Prigozhin indicated that Wagner would return to fighting around August 5), its fighters and commanders would have to sign contracts. The deadline for signing contracts was set for July 1.

According to Prigozhin, the military council of commanders—the real leaders of Wagner—refused to allow these contracts to be signed. Wagner and Shoigu were heading for a confrontation. Wagner was, during this time, building upon the good will of the Russian people that had been earned in the bloody fighting for Bakhmut. Wagner was engaged in an unprecedented public relations campaign designed to imprint on the Russian people the heroic status its fighters enjoyed, all the while seeking to recruit new fighters into it ranks. The success of this public relations campaign only reinforced in the mindset of Prigozhin the notion that he and Wagner were more popular amongst the Russian people than were Shoigu, Gerasimov, and the Russian Ministry of Defense."

[bsnub]

SCOTT RITTER

[helge]

So the US only lock their pedos up for 1,5 year ?

Bit weak in my book

Isn't the truth, that he a bit of a perv and that's it ?

I'm not sure he would be a pedo in Europe.


(he is btw very impressed with his own opinions and predictions)

[OhOh]

Some" are just talking bollocks...

Many I suspect.

One aspect is the many countries, that believe Russia and China have a superior offering, maybe more reluctant to act. Choosing to be less accomodating publicly.

[Joe 90]

Shame nothing came of it...

Wagner, Prigozhin, Putin and Shoigu: Bitter rivalries that led to a rebellion - BBC News

[Shutree]

Shame nothing came of it...

This isn't over yet. Time will tell.

[OhOh]

This isn't over yet.

Russian MOD victories appears to have continued.

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (25 June 2023)


▫️ The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) continued their attempts to launch an offensive in Donetsk, Krasny Liman, South Donetsk, and Zaporozhye directions.

▫️ In Donetsk direction near Artyomovsk, the competent and courageous actions of the defending units of the Yug Group of Forces successfully repelled ten enemy attacks in the areas of Orekhovo-Vasilevka, Kurdyumovka, Yagodnoye, Zaliznyanskoye, and Dubovo-Vasilevka last night.

▫️ Another four Ukrainian attacks have been repelled close to Krasnogorovka, Avdeevka, Mariynka, and Pervomaiskoye.

▫️ Up to 430 Ukrainian troops, 11 infantry fighting vehicles, seven motor vehicles, three pick-up trucks, and one D-30 howitzer have been neutralised during the actions.

▫️ An ammunition depot of the 110th Mechanised Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been obliterated close to Avdeevka.

▫️ In Krasny Liman direction, the Tsentr Group of Forces has repelled enemy attacks close to Yampolovka, Karamazinovka, Chervonaya Dibrova.

▫️ Air strikes, artillery, and heavy flamethrowers engaged enemy units of the 63rd and 67th mechanised brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 15th Regiment of the Ukrainian National Guard near Nevskoye, Chervonaya Dibrova, and Kuzmino.

▫️ Two Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been disabled close to the Serebryansky forestry.

▫️ The enemy has suffered losses of up to 130 Ukrainian troops, three armoured fighting vehicles, two pick-up trucks, one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer, and two D-20 howitzers in this direction in the past 24 hours. Three Ukrainian servicemen surrendered.

▫️ Two attacks by the 128th Territorial Defence Brigade in the direction of Priyutnoye were repelled by artillery and heavy flamethrowers of the Vostok Group of Forces in South Donetsk direction near the Vremevka salient during the day.

▫️ In Zaporozhye direction, the Russian troops repelled an attack by units of the 47th Mechanised Brigade near Rabotino (Zaporozhye region).

▫️ Moreover, Operational-Tactical and Ground-Attack aviation struck enemy manpower and hardware near Orekhov and Novodanilovka.

◽️ Total losses of the enemy in the past 24 hours in these directions have amounted to over 170 Ukrainian troops, one tank, four armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, two Msta-B howitzers, and one D-30 howitzer.

◽️ Moreover, an ammunition depot of the 65th Mechanised Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was destroyed close to Kushugum.

▫️ In Kupyansk direction, Operational-Tactical and Army aviation and artillery of the Zapad Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on manpower and military hardware of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Krasnoye Pervoye, Novomlynsk, Kotlyarovka, and Masyutovka. Up to 25 Ukrainian servicemen and two pick-up trucks were eliminated.

◽️ In Kherson direction, over 50 Ukrainian troops, two motor vehicles, and one U.S.-made M777 artillery system have been eliminated during the day.

◽️ In addition, an ammunition depot of the 126th Territorial Defence Brigade was destroyed near Kazatskoye (Kherson region).

▫️ Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Group of Forces have engaged 108 AFU artillery units at their fire positions, manpower, and military hardware in 137 areas during the day.

◽️ Moreover, an ammunition depot of the 60th Mechanised Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was destroyed close to Ogurtsovo.

▫️ Russian air defence forces have intercepted one Tochka-U tactical missile and one HIMARS MLRS projectile during the day.

◽️ Moreover, four Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down close to Kolomyichikha, Soledar, Bakhmutskoye, and Novopetrikovka.

📊 In total, 444 airplanes and 240 helicopters, 4,779 unmanned aerial vehicles, 426 air defence missile systems, 10,348 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,131 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 5,228 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 11,179 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

🔹 RuMod