Ukraine war mega thread

[misskit]

The barren barrels


Russia’s military industry has all sorts of problems: there are barely any details for tanks, aircraft electronics and newest missiles are in short supply

Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and currently the deputy chairman of the Security Council inspected Uralvagonzavod, one of Russia’s leading military production facilities, on 25 October. As Medvedev said himself, he was inspecting the tank production situation in particular. On his Telegram channel, he wrote about the objectives that were set up during an offsite meeting: acceleration of the equipment supplies to Russia’s troops in Ukraine, strict execution of the state defence order in all its key parameters, and preventing supplies disruption. Medvedev’s main message after visiting the complex, however, was for the foreign readers of his channel: “One more thing. Reading the enemy’s analytics, I have come across multiple claims that Russia will soon be out of military equipment and essential weaponry. They say we’ve wasted all of it. Don’t hold your breath. Our production of weaponry and special equipment is increasing many-fold in all domains: from tanks and artillery to high-precision missiles and drones. Just wait for it!” Almost 5 trillion rubles (€81.3 billion) invested into Russia’s defence budget for 2023 are at stake here.


Novaya Gazeta Europe has analysed whether Medvedev’s words regarding the “many-fold” increase in the production of tanks and other military vehicles can be put into practice. Military experts and employees within Russia’s military industry have helped us in doing so. Since such a co-operation would put them at risk, triggering “fake news” and “army discreditation” charges in the best possible scenario, we’re forced to cite the sources still based in Russia on the condition of anonymity.


Unprepared for war


“The people who started the ‘special military operation’ have been trampling down Russia’s defence sector for many years,” a source within the Russian military industry tells Novaya-Europe. “When Putin came to power, a redivision of the market started. The old top brass was eliminated and replaced by the new ‘efficient management.’ Those factories that had some of their manufacture exported to other countries managed to keep their affairs afloat. In fact, exports are the only thing that kept the military industry alive. The factories that lacked exports potential were either destroyed or sold off. Some of the buildings have been turned into shopping malls, others were simply abandoned.


The profit margin is minimal when it comes to state defence order, Novaya-Europe’s source says. This is Soviet legacy: back in the day, the product price was calculated as the prime cost plus a minor revenue mark-up, say, 5 to 15%. If a tank was sold to a different country for 2.5-3 million dollars, Russia’s Defence Ministry would only return 1 million to the factory’s budget on a good day. These circumstances meant that it was unprofitable for the factories to work with the state and the state defence order. Our source recalls Kurganmashzavod (a vehicle plant based in Kurgan, Russia, known for producing BMP infantry fighting vehicles — translator’s note) failing to comply with the state defence order for several years straight but in the meantime dutifully selling its BMP-3 fighting vehicles to the UAE and Malaysia.

Some factories, specifically those manufacturing commercially viable products for exports, took out loans to buy equipment from banks in the West. However, after the Crimea annexation and the Western sanctions that followed it, they were forced to switch to Russian banks, falling into debt bondage. Some factories were on the verge of bankruptcy. The matter is being addressed these days, and a debt restructuring programme at the expense of the state budget is a possible option.


Military research, development and engineering also lacked state financing in Russia, as the source says.


“It is common practice in the US when their Defence Ministry pays money to the factories, expecting prototypes of certain products in return,” an employee within the Russian military industry says. “This might as well be a competition, and two companies would be working on one order at the same time. They both would then receive money from the Defence Ministry. The latter would test both and start serial production of the better one. It works the other way around here, they say: guys, go work at your own expense! Those few lucky ones who receive financing anyway are interested in wasting time deliberately, putting off the final result as long as they can to keep getting the money. Therefore, Russia’s factories find it beneficial to keep manufacturing old but tried and tested produce, using the Soviet stocks and avoiding major production risks.”


There is no innovative, science-driven produce in Russia these days, and it should not be expected to appear anytime soon, the expert believes.


“It is obvious that Russia’s army is in catastrophically short supply of almost all types of equipment,” an employee for Rostec, a state-owned defence conglomerate, says. “This is why the government orders the factories all over the country receive are so urgent. It seems as if the new priority now is all about quantity, not quality. In simpler words, it’s unimportant which tanks are being sent to the frontlines: the newest T-90M models or the recommissioned T-62 ones.”


The Rostec employee says Uralvagonzavod received a state order of 400 tanks shortly after the Ukraine War started. As per the factory’s public relations office, the tanks production line there has a full load of work up until 2024. However, after Russia started massively losing its equipment on the frontlines, the deadlines must have been seriously tightened up.

However, even in the tank industry, the instructions from the highest management cannot be executed immediately.


“Everyone was unprepared for a war. Launching any sort of production requires time. First and foremost, all suppliers, selectors and allied manufacturers should be dealt with,” the Rostec employee says. “Producing tanks requires metal, guns, engines, electronics, communication devices and all sorts of other complex mechanisms and integral units. All those things were purchased based on the actual contracts and cannot be acquired in a snap of a finger. There were no stocks, too; we have a lean manufacturing policy.


Handmade tanks


Our source working for one of the state corporations in Russia estimates the current Uralvagonzavod’s production capacity at 200–250 tanks a year. The footage of Medvedev’s visit indicates that the new tanks are being assembled manually, and the old ones are being modernised on the stocks. Notably, the old Soviet assembly line provided an annual capacity of thousands of tanks each year. The workers at the factory make jokes that their tanks are handmade as they speak to the Novaya-Europe reporter unofficially.


Stepping up production requires production space expansions. However, those tens of billions of rubles allocated to build state-of-the-art workshops capable of automatically assembling Armata tanks have been “used up” already. Uralvagonzavod pursues its contractors in court, and not a single square metre of new workspaces has been constructed. The purchased equipment and the expensive imported machines lie rotting in crates for years. This is why no mass production of Armata tanks is to be expected in the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, Alexander Potapov, Director General at Uralvagonzavod, has not been held accountable for scuttling one of the most ambitious projects of Russia’s military industry.


As a result, Armatas are being assembled in the same section of the factory as T-90s and T-72, fundamentally heavier and bigger models, although there is no relevant equipment for that. It is unknown how many Armatas are in operation now, it’s safe to assume that about a dozen of them used for military displays at the Red Square, plus a few vehicles, were provided to certain units for training. For instance, an Armata tank was seen in Kazan’s Higher Tank Command School.

Uralvagonzavod lacks trained assembling specialists to set up a new production line within the existing workspaces. To step up production, the factory would need to hire more people. These days, the factory’s schedule is three shifts, seven days a week, same as most military industry facilities.


Uralvagonzavod used to deliver tanks in dozens but handing in a batch of 5 or 10 tanks to the army is somewhat common these days. The factory is now focused on producing T-72B3M tanks, although a set of modern T-90M appeared on the Internet recently. Ukraine’s servicemen have already captured some of those. It’s difficult to make up a worse marketing campaign than the newest Russian tanks getting put out of action using old rocket launchers and anti-tank missiles.


Russia’s Defence Ministry might be in possession of up to eight thousand tanks of different models, from T-62 to T-80, preserved in storage, as per Volya, a Telegram channel. Volya tried to figure out how many tanks are in Russia’s use, and found out that up to 90% of the depreserved vehicles require mandatory modernisation. According to the channel’s calculations, Russia’s tank industry is currently capable of producing up to 250 new vehicles and modernising up to 600 old ones each year.


Terminators under repair


Ukraine is outweighing Russia more and more on the frontlines in terms of firepower owing to the NATO-supplied long-range gun systems capable of delivering fire at a distance of 30-40 km. The 2S19 Msta, Russia’s most advanced self-propelled howitzer, is only capable of firing a projectile at the distance of 24 km. Such a small distance (by today’s terms) was designed because old projectiles were supposed to be used, and Russia had those galore. Therefore, the potential increase in shooting distance is limited by the weapon’s ballistics. There is another one: the 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV is the newest Russian howitzer, capable of hitting a target of up to 70 km away from its location. Russia started designing it in the late 1990s, and it also has an autonomous turret with increased fire rate. However, UralTransMash has only produced several prototypes so far, and there are no such vehicles on the front lines.

Novaya-Europe’s source in Rostec says that the Armata and the 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV share the same problem regarding the gun system: Russia does not produce the required type of gun steel. Only two factories in Russia produce blanks for parts of the receiver group: the Motovilikha Plants in Perm and Barrikady, a machine manufacturing plant in Volgograd.


“Russia’s metal industry is dead,” our source says. “When a competition for barrel blanks was announced, all the samples put up for it turned out to be defective. The special thing about the new barrels is that they must withstand greater pressure, that is, be more durable. This requires special alloys and melting modes, as well as small-sized furnaces. The thing is: Russia’s metallurgy is focused on large volumes and mass grades of steel.


Back in the day, some of the managers within the industry considered that the open-hearth smelting process had become inefficient, and all open-hearth furnaces were extinguished in the country. However, only those furnaces could produce high-quality steel, including the one used to produce artillery.


Another much-touted product of Uralvagonzavod is the Terminator tank support combat vehicle sold to Algeria in commercial quantities. Four of those vehicles were seen in Ukraine, which pleased Russia’s patriotic public. However, in the next video, posted about a month later, the vehicles were filmed undergoing repair.


Iskanders not laughing anymore


It is generally believed that Russia has a strategic stockpile of Iskanders, Kalibrs and other modern missiles.


“Russia’s Defence Ministry does not provide any data on the number of equipment produced, used in the theatre of operations or lost there,” Pavel Aksyonov of BBC explains to Novaya Gazeta Europe. “For instance, we can only estimate how many missiles are manufactured in Russia by indirect signs: by the number of missiles launched and by the selection of missiles. During the massive missile attacks on Ukraine which followed the blowing up of the Crimean bridge, Tornado S, S-300, Kh-101, Kh-55, Kalibr and Iskander missiles were used, as well as UAVs, and so on. At the same time, there is still no data on the number of missiles of each type that were taken down or hit targets in Ukraine.


A contact for Novaya-Europe who works in the development of missiles reports that many types of missiles, such as Kalibr, are being immediately sent from the production lines to the launch points.


Russia’s Defence Ministry reported that a total of 99 missiles had been launched on targets in Syria between 7 October 2015 and 3 November 2017.


“An ordinary US destroyer ship carries over 90 cruise missiles. And they have dozens of those,” our source says. “Russia has nothing of this kind. They use corvettes and frigates, which only have 8 or 16 launchers. In a year’s time, the nuclear cruiser Admiral Nakhimov (former Kalinin), which has been under modernisation since 1999, is expected to return to combat duty. It will be converted to launch modern missiles.”


Another reason to doubt the sufficiency of Russia’s high-precision missiles is the use of S-300 anti-aircraft systems against ground targets. Such missiles are guided quite imprecisely when used in the ground-to-ground mode. Moreover, a powerful fragmentation warhead leads to numerous casualties among the unprotected civilian population when it hits a residential area.


The Kinzhal missile system, which Putin used to scare the West with, is the same Iskander model attached to a MiG-31 fighter-interceptor jet. Russia has very few such missiles, our sources say, same as MiG-31 jets modified to carry those: there are only several planes, to be specific.

“Also, the Kh-22 anti-ship missile with a homing head was used during the attacks on Ukraine,” a rocket engineer says. “Simply put, it is able to tell a block of metal in the form of an aircraft carrier from the flat sea. It cannot, however, pick the right building out of many in an urban landscape. In this case, it flies using the pre-determined navigation route and arrives somewhere in the vicinity of the target, quite imprecisely, in fact. The possible deviation in this case is hundreds of meters at best.”


According to our contact, Russia does not have the production capacity to manufacture the missiles to replace those already used. Back in 2018, the crew at the Dubna Machine Building Plant protested against the management methods of AFK Sistema which owned the enterprise. Russia hauled away the equipment from Ukraine’s Dnipro in the early 2000s and placed it at the plant in Dubna, where the production of the Kh-series missiles was launched. According to our source, Almaz-Antey, which produces Kalibr, S-300 and S-400, has issues with the imported machines that have stopped working due to the sanctions.


Corruption is the cause


Since the Soviet times, Russia’s aviation design bureaus have had a surplus of fundamental research in aerodynamics. For instance, Russia’s latest aircraft, the Su-57, have an excellent glider. But Russia’s electronics are larger and less reliable, which increases the weight of the aircraft. The characteristics of radar stations, as well as communication systems, are significantly inferior to their Western counterparts. Russia’s radars have a smaller detection range, they can track fewer targets, they have worse target recognition quality, and so on. The domestic engines are also weaker in terms of technical characteristics than the Western ones. At the same time, the sources of Novaya Gazeta Europe in the military industry say that only a few of these newest Su-57 fighters can be assembled each year.

The situation with the helicopters is no better. America’s modern rotorcraft are one and a half times smaller and much more efficient in terms of load and weapons. In terms of their weight, size, and operational characteristics, they leave the Russian ones far behind. Russia’s helicopters consume more fuel, not to mention the fact that the engines for most models were manufactured in Ukraine. Notably, Vyacheslav Boguslaev, the head and co-owner of Ukraine’s Motor Sich PJSC, was arrested for supplying engines and spare parts for Russian attack helicopters. Russia has failed to set up their own production, and it is likely that in the foreseeable future, combat helicopters in Russia will simply cease to be produced.


Our sources say that the production of drones is a new way of stealing lots of money from Russia’s defence industry.


“The command is very poorly versed in this area,” says the Rostec expert. “The entire experience of the effective use of UAVs came exclusively from below until recently. This is how it worked: a quadcopter bought with sponsors’ money or fundraising fees appeared at the units, and the troops learned how to use it, mastered strategy, tactics, piloting combat techniques and methods of effective use. The Defence Ministry does not have a separate department that would collect, systematise, and analyse these practices. When the need arose, the military officials were more concerned about how to steal and launder money rather than how to ensure combat effectiveness.


As our source says, a lot of small firms appeared several years ago, pretending to be developing UAVs. Often, the development would mean nothing but assembly of “a flying machine” based on a Chinese drone, which was then lobbied through people in the army command as the latest domestic development. Russia literally does not produce any low-power aircraft engines, be it reciprocating or jet ones. Such engines have a special thing about them: a certain ratio of dead weight to useful power is required. Electric motors, like those that the Chinese put on copters, are also not produced in Russia. But the top brass was thrown dust into their eyes, which eventually forced them to buy drones off Iran and to import large blocks and parts from China for their own promising models.


All our sources agree upon the point that Russia started the war with an industry that had failed to modernise. The money allocated on this modernisation was spent inefficiently. The Western sanctions leave zero chance for Russia to produce new developments.


“On the other hand, the T-62 is a tank that is easy to use, and it is much simpler for a mobilised person to learn how to operate it than with modern vehicles,” says our source from Rostec. “If Russia runs out of those, the T-34 can be taken from pedestals, there are many of those all across the country.”

Новая газета. Европа

[pickel]

Says the flag waving monkey who humiliates and denigrates himself on a daily basis.
Says one of TD's most prolific Shitposters, who has never even sent foot in Thailand- and hardly in Asia. Geddalife.
Your lack of intellect and education is readily apparent- you are in fact the very definition of a 'useful idiot'.

Shitpost.

[harrybarracuda]

Shitpost.

Yes, he is a shitposting bonehead.

[Takeovers]

See how the local population reacts when the Ukraine forces enter their area. These are the regions with 90+% of votes for joining Russia.

Ukrainian soldiers being greeted by civilians in territories liberated from Russian occupation in Donetsk region, Luhansk region and Kharkiv region [Pt 1]

Ukrainian soldiers being greeted by civilians in territories liberated from Russian occupation in Donetsk region, Luhansk region and Kharkiv region [Pt 1] - Album on Imgur

Part 2

Ukrainian soldiers being greeted by civilians in territories liberated from Russian occupation in Donetsk region, Luhansk region and Kharkiv region [Pt 2] - Album on Imgur

[Takeovers]

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...17761493487618

Julia Davis
@JuliaDavisNews
Meanwhile in Russia: it's so romantic to plan ahead!

[panama hat]

Our three totalitarian cheerleaders will be along shortly to tell us how it's all staged

[bsnub]

See how the local population reacts when the Ukraine forces enter their area.

Every time I see these clips, it just reinforces that Ukraine will win this war. Being the liberator and being welcomed in the street by hugs, kisses and cheers works miracles to raise moral and the fighting spirit of a soldier.

These are the regions with 90+% of votes for joining Russia.

They never wanted to be a part of Russia, as you and I well know.

[Hugh Cow]

They must be the 10%. The other 90% are all holidaying in Russia at the same time. Ask our resident apologists. If the Ukrainians shot every Russian soldier who looted raped or shot unarmed civilians they wouldn't need a POW prison.

[bsnub]

If the Ukrainians shot every Russian soldier who looted raped or shot unarmed civilians they wouldn't need a POW prison.

That is true.

It is more important to point out that the Ukrainians are now almost fully trained to NATO standards. They are fully compliant with all laws and rules of the Geneva conventions. Ukraine is the Vanguard of freedom for Europe and the democratic world. They will win this war and be a bulwark of security to the west.

[HermantheGerman]

The U.S. and Ukraine should accept three absolutely reasonable terms to end the war bla ...bla...blaaa...coming from a shit poster

Now here is the real answer from a Noble Prize Winner

If Putin goes unpunished, there can be no peace!!!

[Hugh Cow]

The UK has done some excellent training among others. I see the Australian army is also sending army trainers. There has been contributions little or small in an unprecented show of solidarity by the west. Some of the larger EU countries need to do more however. The USA cannot be continually given the economic burden. Once again the USA have lead when many pravaricated. Anyone who thinks the world will be a safer place with a weakened USA is an idiot.

[HermantheGerman]

The UK has done some excellent training among others. I see the Australian army is also sending army trainers. There has been contributions little or small in an unprecented show of solidarity by the west. Some of the larger EU countries need to do more however. The USA cannot be continually given the economic burden. Once again the USA have lead when many pravaricated. Anyone who thinks the world will be a safer place with a weakened USA is an idiot.

Here is HtG peace plan:

Putin will be shot on the Red Square.

The West will train the Russian military. They will love it and I'm sure a lot will join voluntarily.

Russia will join NATO. Chinastan will be so frustrated that they drown in their own sputum.

[sabang]

Ukraine is the Vanguard of freedom for Europe and the democratic world.

Seriously, you are hilarious.

[david44]

Putin will be shot on the Red Square

Well a German did manage to fly in unnoticed once

[david44]

Seriously, you are hilarious.

What I find funny is literate grown ups in a democracy should side with the illegal invaders raping murderers, war criminals , a strange solidarity?

[Iceman123]

What I find funny is literate grown ups in a democracy should side with the illegal invaders raping murderers, war criminals , a strange solidarity?

I hear you David, after Vietnam, Grenada, Iraq, Afghanistan they are still siding with them. What can we do?

[helge]

More Muslims to the slaughter .

?

Chechens ?

[OhOh]

So it's OK for Russia to fire missiles from their Black Sea fleet, but not okay for Ukraine to target the fleet?

Damn good news. At least they are willing to talk.

Let the negotiations begin.

The Russian defense ministry said it had received written guarantees from Kyiv not to use the Black Sea grain corridor for military operations against Russia.

There is nothing to negotiate

Oh, my. How could someone be so ignorant? Putin left the grain deal. Erdoğan just shoved him aside and started attaching the Turkish flag to all the grain ships. Putin rejoined in a failed attempt to avoid further humiliation.

THE LORD replies.

No pain, no grain: Putin’s Black Sea comeback

After the western military attack on Sevastopol briefly halted Russian grain transports, Moscow is back in business with a stronger hand and more favorable terms.

By Pepe Escobar

November 02 2022

"So, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan picks up the phone and calls his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin: let’s talk about the “grain deal.” Putin, cool, calm and collected, explains the facts to the Sultan:

First, the reason why Russia withdrew from the export grain deal.

Second, how Moscow seeks a serious investigation into the – terrorist – attack on the Black Sea fleet, which for all practical purposes seems to have violated the deal.

And third, how Kiev must guarantee it will uphold the deal, brokered by Turkey and the UN.

Only then would Russia consider coming back to the table.

And then – today, 2 November – the coup de theatre:

Russia’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) announces the country is back to the Black Sea grain deal, after receiving the necessary written guarantees from Kiev.

The MoD, quite diplomatically, praised the “efforts” of both Turkey and the UN: Kiev is committed not to use the “Maritime Humanitarian Corridor” for combat operations, and only in accordance with the provisions of the Black Sea Initiative.
Moscow said the guarantees are sufficient “for the time being.” Implying that can always change.

All rise to the Sultan’s persuasion

Erdogan must have been extremely persuasive with Kiev. Before the phone call to Putin, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) had already explained that the attack on the Black Sea Fleet was conducted by 9 aerial drones and 7 naval drones, plus an American RQ-4B Global Hawk observation drone lurking in the sky over neutral waters.
The attack happened under the cover of civilian ships and targeted Russian vessels that escorted the grain corridor in the perimeter of their responsibility, as well as the infrastructure of the Russian base in Sevastopol.

The MoD explicitly designated British experts deployed in the Ochakov base in the Nikolaev region as the designers of this military operation.
At the UN Security Council, Permanent Representative Vassily Nebenzya declared himself “surprised” that the UN leadership “failed not only to condemn, but even to express concern over the terrorist attacks.”

After stating that the Brit-organized Kiev operation on the Black Sea Fleet “put an end to the humanitarian dimension of the Istanbul agreements,” Nebenzya also clarified:

“It is our understanding that the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine agreed on under UN supervision on 22 July, must not be implemented without Russia, and so we do not view the decisions that were made without our involvement as binding.”

This means, in practice, that Moscow “cannot allow for unimpeded passage of vessels without our inspection.” The crucial question is how and where these inspections will be carried out – as Russia has warned the UN that it will definitely inspect dry cargo ships in the Black Sea.

The UN, for its part, tried at best to put on a brave face, believing Russia’s suspension is “temporary” and looking forward to welcoming “its highly professional team” back to the Joint Coordination Center.
According to humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths, the UN also proclaims to be “ready to address concerns.” And that has to be soon, because the deal reaches its 120-day extension point on November 19.

Well, “addressing concerns” is not exactly the case. Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia Dmitry Polyansky said that at the UN Security Council meeting western nations simply could not deny their involvement in the Sevastopol attack; instead, they simply blamed Russia.

All the way to Odessa

Prior to the phone call with Erdogan, Putin had already pointed out that

“34 percent of the grain exported under the deal goes to Turkey, 35 percent to EU countries and only 3-4 percent to the poorest countries. Is this what we did everything for?”
That’s correct. For instance, 1.8 million tons of grain went to Spain; 1.3 million tons to Turkey; and 0.86 million tons to Italy. By contrast, only 0,067 tons went to “starving” Yemen and 0,04 tons to “starving” Afghanistan.

Putin made it very clear that Moscow was not withdrawing from the grain deal but had only suspended its participation.
And as a further gesture of good will, Moscow announced it would willingly ship 500,000 tons of grain to poorer nations for free, in an effort to replace the integral amount that Ukraine should have been able to export.
All this time, Erdogan skillfully maneuvered to convey the impression he was occupying the higher ground: even if Russia behaves in an “indecisive” manner, as he defined it, we will continue to pursue the grain deal.

So, it seems like Moscow was being tested – by the UN and by Ankara, which happens to be the main beneficiary of the grain deal and is clearly profiting from this economic corridor. Ships continue to depart from Odessa to Turkish ports – mainly Istanbul – without Moscow’s agreement. It was expected they would be “filtered” by Russia when coming back to Odessa.

The immediate Russian means of pressure was unleashed in no time: preventing Odessa from becoming a terrorist infrastructure node. This means constant visits by cruise missiles.

Well, the Russians have already “visited” the Ochakov base occupied by Kiev and the British experts. Ochakov – between Nikolaev and Odessa – was built way back in 2017, with key American input.

The British units that were involved in the sabotage of the Nord Streams – according to Moscow – are the same ones that planned the Sevastopol operation. Ochakov is constantly spied upon and sometimes hit out of positions that the Russians have cleared last month only 8 km to the south, on the extremity of the Kinburn peninsula. And yet the base has not been totally destroyed.
To reinforce the “message,” the real response to the attack on Sevastopol has been this week’s relentless “visits” of Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure; if maintained, virtually the whole of Ukraine will soon be plunged into darkness.

Closing down the Black Sea

The attack on Sevastopol may have been the catalyst leading to a Russian move to close down the Black Sea – with Odessa converted into an absolutely priority for the Russian Army. There are serious rumblings across Russia on why Russophone Odessa had not been the object of pinpointed targeting before.

Top infrastructure for Ukrainian Special Forces and British advisers is based in Odessa and Nikolaev. Now there’s no question these will be destroyed.

Even with the grain deal in theory back on track, it is hopeless to expect Kiev to abide by any agreements. After all, every major decision is taken either by Washington or by the Brits at NATO. Just like bombing the Crimea Bridge, and then the Nord Streams, attacking the Black Sea Fleet was designed as a serious provocation.

The brilliant designers though seem to have IQs lower than refrigerator temperatures: every Russian response always plunges Ukraine deeper down an inescapable – and now literally black – hole.
The grain deal seemed to be a sort of win-win. Kiev would not contaminate Black Sea ports again after they were demined. Turkey turned into a grain transport hub for the poorest nations (actually that’s not what happened: the main beneficiary was the EU). And sanctions on Russia were eased on the export of agricultural products and fertilizers.

This was, in principle, a boost for Russian exports. In the end, it did not work out because many players were worried about possible secondary sanctions.

It is important to remember that the Black Sea grain deal is actually two deals: Kiev signed a deal with Turkey and the UN, and Russia signed a separate deal with Turkey.

The corridor for the grain carriers is only 2 km wide. Minesweepers move in parallel along the corridor. Ships are inspected by Ankara. So the Kiev-Ankara-UN deal remains in place. It has nothing to do with Russia – which in this case does not escort and/or inspect the cargoes.

What changes with Russia “suspending” its own deal with Ankara and the UN, is that from now on, Moscow can proceed anyway it deems fit to neutralize terrorist threats and even invade and take over Ukrainian ports:

that will not represent a violation of the deal with Ankara and the UN.

So in this respect, it is a game-changer.

Seems like Erdogan fully understood the stakes, and told Kiev in no uncertain terms to behave.

There’s no guarantee, though, that western powers won’t come up with another Black Sea provocation. Which means that sooner or later – perhaps by the Spring of 2023 – General Armageddon will have to come up with the goods. That translates as advancing all the way to Odessa."

https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/17727

[panama hat]

Well a German did manage to fly in unnoticed once

True, and that was in the bad old days even . . .

What I find funny is literate grown ups in a democracy should side with the illegal invaders raping murderers, war criminals , a strange solidarity?

It points to self-hatred, simple.

Putin will be shot on the Red Square.

Tickets on sale with the proceeds going to the murdered people's families?

[Takeovers]

Seems like Erdogan fully understood the stakes, and told Kiev in no uncertain terms to behave.

If you believe Ukraine will and should refrain from attacking the russian fleet, that keeps shooting missiles at Odesa and other cities, you are totally delusional.

[panama hat]

If you believe Ukraine will and should refrain from attacking the russian fleet, that keeps shooting missiles at Odesa and other cities, you are totally delusional.

There seems to be this odd idea that the attacker should not be attacked. That the party attacked cannot defend itself.

What utter hypocrisy

[sabang]

Commonsense article:-


Ordinary Ukrainians on the front lines are divided on a ceasefire and negotiations

..... Ordinary Ukrainians on the front lines are divided on a ceasefire and negotiations. My Ukrainian colleague Karina Korostelina and I surveyed the attitudes of both residents and displaced persons in three Ukrainian cities close to the southeast battlefields this summer. Almost half agreed it was imperative to seek a ceasefire to stop Russians killing Ukraine’s young men. Slightly more supported negotiations with Russia on a complete ceasefire, with a quarter totally against and a fifth declaring themselves neutral. Respondents were torn when considering whether saving lives or territorial unity were more important to them. Those most touched by the war, namely the internally displaced, were more likely to prioritise saving lives. Other research reveals that those farthest from the battlefields have the most hawkish attitudes.

The White House seems content to prioritise war over peace. Indeed, the seeming subordination of US foreign policy interests to Ukraine’s wartime needs is remarkable. Historically, Ukraine was never a vital US strategic interest. But today the US and its Nato allies are irredeemably entangled in its war. If Ukraine escalates, the US and its allies are pulled along. Crimea remains the most dangerous place. Last week Zelenskiy told an international audience “we will definitely liberate Crimea”. In contrast to Kherson, such a possible liberation would be more about land than people as most Crimeans see themselves as Russians. Currently, western support enables Ukrainian leaders to hold such maximalist war aims. While support is justifiable, it prioritises war over diplomacy, locking Ukraine and Russia into a zero-sum struggle that could go nuclear.

The parties to the Ukraine war are not sleepwalking to Armageddon but marching there with righteous fervour. In the absence of diplomacy, deepening horrors within Ukraine and beyond are likely, including famine in east Africa given the recent disruption of the grain export agreement. Ukraine will continue to fight for territorial liberation, while Russia will turn to ever more radical measures. The progressive Democrats were right to call for greater diplomatic work alongside military support. Searching for peace should never be taboo.

Gerard Toal is a professor at Virginia Tech in Washington DC and author of Near Abroad: Putin, the West and the Contest over Ukraine and the Caucasus

FULL- Ukraine risks being locked into endless war in bid for perfect peace – The Irish Times

[bsnub]

Commonsense article:-

More crap. Nice to see that you cherry-picked the last three paragraphs of the article, you disingenuous twat.

[david44]

The European civil war will continue so long as it suits China and USA.
Ukraine's desire to retake Crimea will ensure a longer war.
The usual arms dealers will keep it going as long as possible

Even Putin dead of natural causes killed by Russians, minorities ,or NATO doesn't end the war, plenty of crony war criminals who know where the bodies and loot is.

[russellsimpson]

Congratulions thread!. 10,000. Time to celebrate. Time to end this friggin war.