1. #10151
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    Ukraine: Tragedy of a Nation Divided

    Just before Russia invaded Ukraine, I drafted a comment on the situation which describes some of the events and factors that contributed to the war that has gone on now for nearly eight months. The Russian invasion and the war itself have changed some of these factors. A solution that might have been possible a year ago may no longer be possible. Yet it should also be clear that Ukraine’s announced goal of restoring the borders it inherited in 1991 is not realistic. Here is some history that needs to be understood:

    Interference by the United States and its NATO allies in Ukraine’s civil struggle has exacerbated the crisis within Ukraine, undermined the possibility of bringing the two easternmost provinces back under Kyiv’s control, and raised the specter of possible conflict between nuclear-armed powers. Furthermore, in denying that Russia has a “right” to oppose extension of a hostile military alliance to its national borders, the United States ignores its own history of declaring and enforcing for two centuries a sphere of influence in the Western hemisphere.

    The fact is, Ukraine is a state but not yet a nation. In the thirty years of its independence, it has not yet found a leader who can unite its citizens in a shared concept of Ukrainian identity. Yes, Russia has interfered, but it is not Russian interference that created Ukrainian disunity but rather the haphazard way the country was assembled from parts that were not always mutually compatible.

    The territory of the Ukrainian state claimed by the government in Kyiv was assembled, not by Ukrainians themselves but by outsiders, and took its present form following the end of World War II. To think of it as a traditional or primordial whole is absurd. This applies a fortiori to the two most recent additions to Ukraine—that of some eastern portions of interwar Poland and Czechoslovakia, annexed by Stalin at the end of the war, and the largely Russian-speaking Crimea, which was transferred from the Russian Socialist Federated Soviet Republic (RSFSR) well after the war, when Nikita Khrushchev controlled the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Since all constituent parts of the USSR were ruled from Moscow, it seemed at the time a paper transfer of no practical significance. (Even then, the city of Sevastopol, the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet, was subordinated directly to Moscow, not Kyiv.) Up to then, the Crimea had been considered an integral part of Russia since Catherine II “the Great” conquered it in the 18th century.

    The lumping together of people with strikingly different historical experience and comfortable in different (though closely related) languages, underlies the current divisions. If one takes Galicia and adjoining provinces in the west on the one hand and the Donbas and Crimea in the east and south on the other as exemplars of the extremes, the areas in between are mixed, proportions gradually shifting from one tradition to the other. There is no clear dividing line, and Kyiv/Kiev would be claimed by both.

    From its inception as an internationally recognized independent state, Ukraine has been deeply divided along linguistic and cultural lines. Nevertheless, it has maintained a unitary central government rather than a federal one that would permit a degree of local autonomy. The constitution gave the elected president the power to appoint the chief executives in the provinces (oblasti) rather than having them subject to election in each province—as is the case, for example—in the United States. Note in the following map of election results in 2010, how closely the political divide in Ukraine parallels the linguistic divide.

    The Ukrainian revolution of 2014 started with protests over President Yanukovich’s decision not to sign an agreement with the European Union. The United States and the EU openly supported the demonstrators and spoke of detaching Ukraine from what one might call the Russian (past Soviet) security sphere and attaching it to the West through EU and NATO membership. Never mind that Ukraine was unable at that time to meet the normal requirements for either EU or NATO membership. Violence started, first in the Ukrainian nationalist West, with irregular militias taking over the local offices headed by Yanukovich appointees.

    On February 20, 2014, demonstrations in Kyiv, which up to then had been largely peaceful, turned violent even though a compromise agreement had been reached to hold early elections. Many demonstrators were shot by sniper fire and President Yanukovich fled the country. Demonstration leaders claimed that the government’s security force, the Berkut, was responsible for initiating the shooting, but subsequent trials failed to substantiate this. In fact, most of the sniper fire came from buildings controlled by the demonstrators.

    The United States and most Western countries immediately recognized the successor government, but Russia and many Russian-speaking Ukrainians considered Yanukovich’s ouster the result of an illegal coup d’etat. A rebellion occurred in the Eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk and Russia supported the rebels with military equipment and irregular forces.

    In Crimea, local leaders declared independence and requested annexation by Russia. A referendum was conducted under the watchful eye of “little green men” infiltrated from Russia. There was no resistance by Ukrainian military or police forces, and Russia officially annexed the peninsula when the referendum resulted in an overwhelming pro-Russian vote. There was no fighting and no casualties in Crimea.

    In February 2015 an agreement was reached (“Minsk agreement”) to bring the Donbas back under Kiev’s control by allowing a degree of autonomy, including election of local officials, and amnesty for the secessionists. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian legislature (Verkhovna Rada) has refused to amend the constitution to provide for a federal system or to proclaim an amnesty for the secessionists.

    Separate sets of U.S. and EU economic sanctions against Russia have been declared in respect to the Crimea and the Donbas, but most have seemed to stimulate hostile emotions rather than encourage solution of the problems. What needs to be understood is that Russia perceives these issues as matters of vital national security.

    Russia is extremely sensitive about foreign military activity adjacent to its borders, as any other country would be and the United States always has been. It has signaled repeatedly that it will stop at nothing to prevent NATO membership for Ukraine. Nevertheless, eventual Ukrainian membership in NATO has been an avowed objective U.S. and NATO policy since the Bush-Cheney administration. This makes absolutely no sense. It is also dangerous to confront a nuclear-armed power with military threats on its border.

    When I hear comments now such as, “Russia has no right to claim a ‘sphere of influence,’” I am puzzled. It is not a question of legal “rights,” but of probable consequences. It is as if someone announces, “We never passed a law of gravity so we can ignore it.” No one is saying that Ukraine does not have a “right” to apply for NATO membership. Of course it does. The question is whether the members of the alliance would serve their own interest if they agreed. In fact they would assume a very dangerous liability.

    I point this out as a veteran of the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. At that time I was assigned to the American embassy in Moscow and it fell my lot to translate some of Khrushchev’s messages to President John Kennedy. Why is it relevant? Just this: in terms of international law, the Soviet Union had a “right” to place nuclear weapons on Cuba when the Cuban government requested them, the more so since the United States had deployed nuclear missiles of comparable range that could strike the USSR from Turkey. But it was an exceedingly dangerous move since the United States had total military dominance of the Caribbean and under no circumstances would tolerate the deployment of nuclear missiles in its backyard. Fortunately for both countries and the rest of the world, Kennedy and Khrushchev were able to defuse the situation. Only later did we learn how close we came to a nuclear exchange.

    As for the future, the only thing that will convince Moscow to withdraw its military support from the separatist regimes in the Donbas will be Kyiv’s willingness to implement the Minsk agreement. As for the Crimea, it is likely to be a de facto part of Russia for the foreseeable future, whether or not the West recognizes that as “legal.” For decades, the U.S. and most of its Western allies refused to recognize the incorporation of the three Baltic countries in the Soviet Union. This eventually was an important factor in their liberation. However, the Crimea is quite different in one key respect: most of its people, being Russian, prefer to be in Russia. In fact, one can argue that it is in the political interest of Ukrainian nationalists to have Crimea in Russia. Without the votes from Crimea, Viktor Yanukovich would never have been elected president.

    One persistent U.S. demand is that Ukraine’s territorial integrity be restored. Indeed, the U.S. is party to the Budapest Memorandum in which Russia guaranteed Ukraine’s territorial integrity in return for Ukraine’s transfer of Soviet nuclear weapons to Russia for destruction in accord with U.S.-Soviet arms control agreements. What the U.S. demand ignores is that, under traditional international law, agreements remain valid rebus sic stantibus (things remaining the same). When the Budapest memorandum was signed in 1994 there was no plan to expand NATO to the east and Gorbachev had been assured in 1990 that the alliance would not expand. When in fact it did expand right up to Russia’s borders, Russia was confronted with a radically different strategic situation than existed when the Budapest agreement was signed.

    Furthermore, Russians would argue that the U.S. is interested in territorial integrity only when its interests are served. American governments have a record of ignoring it when convenient, as when it and its NATO allies violated Serbian territorial integrity by creating and then recognizing an independent Kosovo. Also, the United Sates violated the principle when it supported the separation of South Sudan from Sudan, Eritrea from Ethiopia, and East Timor from Indonesia.

    To the charge that Russia is guilty of unprovoked aggression in Ukraine, Russia would point out that the U.S. invaded Panama to arrest Noriega, invaded Grenada to prevent American citizens from being taken hostage (even though they had not been taken hostage), invaded and occupied Iraq on spurious grounds, maintains military forces in Syria without the permission of the Syrian government, targets people in other countries with drones. In other words, for the U.S. government to preach about respect for sovereignty and preservation of territorial integrity to a Russian president can seem a claim to special rights not allowed others.

    Ultimately, all these legal arguments and appeals to abstract concepts are beside the point. So far as Ukraine is concerned, it can never be a united, prosperous country unless it has reasonably close and civil relations with Russia. That means, inter alia, giving its Russian-speaking citizens equal rights to their language and culture. That is a fact determined by geography and history. Ukraine’s friends in Europe and North America should help them understand that rather than pursuing what could easily turn out to be a suicidal course.

    https://jackmatlock.com/2022/11/there-must-be-a-negotiated-settlement-with-russia/

  2. #10152
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    So, more of your nonsensical apologist drivel. The same crap you have been reposting for months.

    According to former NATO official @EHunterChristie, the former US Ambassador to the USSR, Jack Matlock, who helped negotiate an end to the Cold War, is an "appeaser and shill" who pronounces "nonsense."
    A star line up of appeasers and shills: the notorious Aaron Mate quoting nonsense-pronouncing Jack Matlock writing for the "Responsible Statecraft" Institute. Hilariously though, this Russian diplomat knocks over the silver platter and promises us... a Russian defeat.
    https://twitter.com/EHunterChristie/...49097104216065

  3. #10153
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    All this could have been prevented if they only listened to me.

  4. #10154
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    Quote Originally Posted by HermantheGerman View Post
    I'am sure E. Honecker agrees with you 100%
    Thanks for putting in the rofl - I know Yermans don't do humour without a glass topped coffee table being involved.

    However all that aside do you want to take the bet?

  5. #10155
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    So, more of your nonsensical apologist drivel. The same crap you have been reposting for months.
    I didn't find Matlock at all convincing. The Russians are guilty of numerous war crimes and need to pay a massive price for both their invasion and war crimes. It's downhill from here for the Russians. Both economically and militarily.

  6. #10156
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    It's downhill from here for the Russians.
    And Germany, and the rest of Europe, and of course Ukraine, and food security in Africa, and world inflation/ energy prices. The adults in the room will start talking at some stage. Meanwhile, as Ambassador Matlock says, Ukraine is a deeply divided place.

  7. #10157
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    Quote Originally Posted by 39TG View Post
    I didn't find Matlock at all convincing.
    He has no credibility at all, but Sabang will continue to roll him and the other members of the apologist clown car to push his propaganda narrative that NATO is to blame for this war and his dear leader Putin had no choice but to invade.



    Quote Originally Posted by 39TG View Post
    It's downhill from here for the Russians. Both economically and militarily.
    I couldn't agree more. The war is lost at this point for Russia, it is just a matter of how much longer it is going to take to drive them all the way out of Ukraine.

    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    And Germany, and the rest of Europe, and of course Ukraine, and food security in Africa, and world inflation/ energy prices. The adults in the room will start talking at some stage. Meanwhile, as Ambassador Matlock says, Ukraine is a deeply divided place.
    You are a propagandized moron.

  8. #10158
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    Yes sure- the folks in the corridors of power really listen to the likes of you snubby. Why don't you write and publish an Op-Ed in the NYT?

  9. #10159
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    The TD military "experts" now appear to believe:

    Russian propaganda.

    Communist BS,

    Official Russian MOD statements

    ....



    9 Nov, 2022 15:11 HomeRussia & FSU

    Russia to pull troops out of frontline city of Kherson – MOD

    The regional administration worked for weeks to move civilians from the area, citing Ukrainian attacks.

    "Russia has decided to withdraw its troops from the right bank of the Dnieper River, including the regional capital of Kherson. The Defense Ministry explained that it wants to avoid unnecessary losses among its forces and spare the lives of civilians.While saying the decision was not easy, the commanders see little sense in keeping the troops on the right bank, the chief of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, Army General Sergey Surovikin, told Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu on Wednesday. The general pointed to continued Ukrainian attacks on the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric dam on the Dnieper River, arguing that it could mean the total isolation of Russian troops in Kherson.

    “If the Kiev regime … launches an even more devastating attack on the Kakhovskaya dam, a flow of water could arise that would flood large areas, causing significant civilian casualties,” Surovikin added. This, according to the commander, “would create further threats for civilians and risk total isolation of our force grouping on the right bank of the Dnieper.”

    A pullout would help avoid the worst-case scenario and also keep the combat effectiveness of the force grouping in the area, Surovikin said."

    Russia to pull troops out of frontline city of Kherson – MOD — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union

    Quote Originally Posted by hallelujah View Post
    state propaganda and whackjob websites
    Quote Originally Posted by HermantheGerman View Post
    your communist BS
    Quote Originally Posted by hallelujah View Post
    How anyone could value the veracity of anything that Oh
    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    KHERSON AXIS/ FLASH TRAFFIC/ 1550 UTC 9 NOV/ RU forces are reported to be executing a withdrawal from all N bank positions around Kherson.
    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers View Post
    setting up a defensive line there. Ukraine troops are not going to attack across the river.
    Quote Originally Posted by 39TG View Post
    It's downhill from here for the Russians. Both economically and militarily.
    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    push his propaganda narrative that NATO is to blame for this war
    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    The war is lost at this point for Russia,
    Last edited by OhOh; 10-11-2022 at 08:25 PM.
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  10. #10160
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    MK's favourite NaGastan blogger/"military expert", expresses his non_official Russian, opinion:


  11. #10161
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    The TD military "experts" now appear to believe:

    Russian propaganda.

    Communist BS,

    Official Russian MOD statements
    You may be right. It increasingly looks like a rout, not a retreat, as announced by Shoigu.

  12. #10162
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    Putin ‘in no rush’ as Kherson retreat signals change of strategy

    Russian leader has distanced himself from withdrawal decision but Kremlin appears keen to learn from mistakes

    As has often been the case, Vladimir Putin was not present to deliver the bad news. On the day Russia announced a retreat from the Ukrainian city of Kherson, the Russian leader was touring a neurological hospital in Moscow, making no mention of the monumental decision.

    It was instead Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, and its commander in Ukraine, Gen Sergei Surovikin, who explained in a televised exchange that holding Kherson was no longer tenable.

    Putin’s silence felt even more deafening on Thursday as the defence ministry announced in its daily briefing that it had “in strict accordance with the approved plan” begun retreating from Kherson, the only regional capital captured by Moscow since the start of the war.

    “Putin doesn’t want to deliver the bad news and take responsibility for this retreat,” said a former senior defence official, speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid reprisal. “He does not want to be associated with failure. This has been his modus operandi for years,” the official said, pointing to an earlier military retreat from Ukraine’s north-eastern region of Kharkiv, which Putin similarly ignored, instead spending the day inaugurating a giant ferris wheel.

    Experts who closely follow Putin said his decision to abandon Kherson was also a reminder of his readiness to make tactical concessions when pushed against the wall. “It is wrong to say that Putin never retreats or backs down. This just shows again that Putin can be pragmatic,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a political analyst at R Politik, an analysis firm. “This decision was clearly a very emotional one for him but he took it. He can be rational.”

    The former defence official said the Kherson withdrawal further exposed Moscow’s dire military situation on the ground, which was too blatant for Putin to ignore.

    Military experts have for weeks predicted that Russia would struggle to keep Kherson as it could no longer support troops who have been mostly cut off from their supply lines. “It came to the point where Putin simply could not ignore Surovikin’s warnings any more,” the former official said. “The Ukrainian army simply had the upper hand in Kherson.”

    According to US intelligence reports cited by the New York Times in September, the Russian president had that month rejected requests from his commanders in the field to retreat from Kherson.

    The decision to withdraw, therefore, appears to mark a significant change in his thinking. According to the former defence official, who claimed to be in regular contact with his ex-colleagues, Putin intends to “freeze” the conflict while his much-damaged army regroups and trains the large numbers of newly mobilised soldiers that, according to official figures, surpass the 300,000 originally announced.

    “Putin is in no rush. He sees this as a longer, large-scale conflict with the west,” the official said. “He is an opportunist by nature. His strategy now is to see how things stand by the end of winter and then reassess the strategy.”

    The Kherson retreat is the latest in a string of military defeats for Russia. But while Kyiv’s Kharkiv offensive caused Russian units to flee in disarray and an unprecedented rupture within the Russian ruling class, Wednesday’s decision was met with understanding by some of the most aggressive critics of the conduct of the military campaign.

    Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman ruler of Chechnya, and the Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin applauded in sync the Kherson retreat, with the former describing it as a “difficult but right choice between senseless sacrifices for the sake of high-profile statements and saving the priceless lives of soldiers”.

    Stanovaya said their responses were a testament to the Kremlin’s eagerness to learn from past mistakes. “This time, the Kremlin has clearly coordinated this withdrawal with the aggressive prowar elements within the elites. Putin did not want to see any public division again.”

    Some analysts have seen in Surovikin’s appointment in October the Kremlin looking for a respected military commander to take the political blow for retreat.

    “It was obvious that Surovikin’s appointment and the praise heaped upon him were at least partly due to the need to create a figure with a mandate for ‘shameful’ actions that Putin didn’t want to take in his own name,” said Alexander Baunov, a political analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace thinktank.

    “Surovikin is the perfect figure to announce the retreat,” the former defence official, who has previously worked with Surovikin, similarly said. “Surovikin has no enemies within the system and can’t be blamed for not understanding the military situation.”

    Military experts have also said Russia appeared to be eager to avoid tactical mistakes made during the chaotic and disorganised Kharkiv retreat, which put hundreds of pieces of abandoned Russian heavy armour into Ukraine’s hands.

    Russian forces spent weeks before the withdrawal announcement fortifying defensive positions on the east bank of the Dnipro River, where the rest of the army is now expected to take up positions.

    “If Russia can withdraw its units without heavy losses, it will likely be in a stronger position to hold its existing frontlines because it can move these reverses around more easily to hold the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, a thinktank. “That is why how the withdrawal is conducted is critical.”

    The loss of Kherson may also be welcomed by some ordinary Russians shocked by Putin’s decision to order a mobilisation that was followed by reports of mass casualties of ill-prepared conscripts, said Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who has studied public attitudes towards the war in Russia.

    He pointed to a recent poll that showed while 44% of Russians still “definitely supported” the actions of their army, only 22% were “definitely” in favour of continuing military action. “Big parts of the society, including segments that support Putin, are getting tired of the war, and any reduction in losses is a plus for Putin,” Kolesnikov said.

    It was no surprise, he added, that Shoigu and Surovikin emphasised the preservation of human life as the main motive behind the retreat from Kherson. “On the background of already existing anxieties created by the mobilisation, it is rather reckless to mount a big defence of Kherson which could lead to a massacre,” he said.

    However, Wednesday’s announcement did not satisfy everyone. “Kherson is surrendered. If you don’t care about this then you are not Russian … If this didn’t hurt, you’re worth nothing,” said Alexander Dugin, a far-right nationalist whose daughter was killed earlier this year in a car bombing.

    Dugin then proceeded in the post to his Telegram channel to levy a rare criticism that appeared to be directed at the Kremlin. “The war must become a people’s war in the full sense of the word. But the government must become for the people … And not what it is now.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...putin-strategy

  13. #10163
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    They may retreat so fast the skidmarks will be visible to satelites or moon dwellers ?

  14. #10164
    Isle of discombobulation Joe 90's Avatar
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    I reckon the Ukrainians should roll up in Red Square and blow the place to bits in the forceable future.

    Fooking Commie Putin wankers have it coming.
    Then a slight diversion to Bejing and put those charleton cvnts in their place.

  15. #10165
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    “Putin is in no rush. He sees this as a longer, large-scale conflict with the west,” the official said. “He is an opportunist by nature. His strategy now is to see how things stand by the end of winter and then reassess the strategy.”
    Good stuff in that post Sab. Specific to the above quote, I couldn't agree more. As long as Putin remains in a position of complete control, this war will go on for years not months.

  16. #10166
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    And Germany, and the rest of Europe, and of course Ukraine, and food security in Africa, and world inflation/ energy prices. The adults in the room will start talking at some stage. Meanwhile, as Ambassador Matlock says, Ukraine is a deeply divided place.
    Yes because that's some war criminal invaded it you dopey twat.

  17. #10167
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Russian leader has distanced himself from withdrawal decision
    That's because he's a coward who's trying to blame someone else for his fuck ups.

  18. #10168
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    As long as Putin remains in a position of complete control, this war will go on for years not months.
    As one pundit observed, this war has already been going on since at least 2014, we just didn't pay attention.

  19. #10169
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    And Germany, and the rest of Europe, and of course Ukraine, and food security in Africa, and world inflation/ energy prices. The adults in the room will start talking at some stage. Meanwhile, as Ambassador Matlock says, Ukraine is a deeply divided place.
    The 'adults' in the room didn't invade a country that wasn't a threat . . . and if you think Germany and the rest of Europe is in any way going down the same shithole as Russia then your 'reasoning' has already been flushed down said shithole.



    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Putin ‘in no rush’ as Kherson retreat signals change of strategy
    Russian leader has distanced himself from withdrawal decision but Kremlin appears keen to learn from mistakes
    What an utter fuckwit . . . so very similar to Trump who now famously said; 'if we win I should be given full recognition. If we lose the I bear no responsibility'.

    Putin starts war, gets his face kicked in and loses 100.000 soldiers while massacring tens of thousands of civilians and Ukrainian soldiers . . . and then whines about his his generals 'made decisions'.

    Fuck him . . . may he get the most vile disease and suffer

  20. #10170
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shutree View Post
    As one pundit observed, this war has already been going on since at least 2014, we just didn't pay attention.
    True that. I said it and sure a few others so yes, need to restate.

    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    this war will go on for several more years not months
    FIFM.

  21. #10171
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    A non Russian

    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Communist BS,
    Voice.

    November 11, 2022 by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR

    Biden nods to compromise in Ukraine


    Snippets:

    "Biden added that “at a minimum, it (evacuation) will lead to time for everyone to recalibrate their positions over the winter period. And it remainsto be seen whether or not there’ll be a judgment made as to whether or not Ukraine is prepared to compromise with Russia.”

    "Notably, Biden has spoken twice about “compromise” (read territorial concessions) by Kiev, which is a major shift from the US stance that the Russian forces should get out of Ukraine. Biden concluded: “That’s — that’s what’s going to happen, whether or not. I don’t know what they’re going to do. And — but I do know one thing: We’re not going to tell them what they have to do.”
    Taken together, Biden’s remarks are consistent with the “scoop” by NBC News on Wednesday, citing informed sources, that during the National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s unannounced visit to Kiev last week, he studied Ukraine’s readiness for a diplomatic solution to the conflict."

    "Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova also chipped in commenting, “We are still open to negotiations, we have never refused them, we are ready to conduct them – taking, of course, into account the realities being established at the moment."

    "Gen. Mark Milley, confirmed that there is indeed “a window of opportunity for negotiation” moving forward."

    "Henceforth, Biden will have to negotiate decisions on Ukraine with the Republicans."

    "the cascading economic crisis in Europe holds explosive potential for political turmoil, especially if there is another refugee flow from Ukraine in the harsh winter conditions, which is a real possibility.The blowback from sanctions against Russia has lethally wounded Europe,"

    "The recent visit of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to China shows that dissent is brewing."

    "The UK, Washington’s steadfast ally in Ukraine, also is under immense pressure to disengage and concentrate on the domestic crisis as the new government tackles a funding hole of the order of £50bn in the budget."

    "the Ukrainian forces surge and occupy Kherson and threaten Crimea, it will pose a big challenge for the Biden Administration. From Biden’s remarks, the is confident that it has enough leverage in Kiev to ensure that there is no escalation."

    "to abandon Kherson city, which was founded by a decree of Catherine the Great and is etched deeply in the Russian collective consciousness, with a reasonable certainty that Washington will restrain Kiev from “hot pursuit” of the retreating Russian army to the eastern banks of the Dnieper river."


    Biden nods to compromise in Ukraine - Indian Punchline

    Ukraine war mega thread-zhou-enlai-jpg

  22. #10172
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    I'm all for negotiations.

    The world agrees to remove sanctions if Puffy fucks off back to Russia.

    Seems quite easy to me.

  23. #10173
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    Donbas and Crimea will be critical to both sides.

    After so much loss of life and destruction of homes and livlihoods some Ukraininians may have had enough , equally the sacrifice may make them more determined to recover all , encouraged by all those allies. NATO of course has a vested interest in a weaker Russian threat so a long bloody war ending in regime change has been goal ever since the Maidan or 1945 even.

    In the bigger picture China will be concerned about a pro western or even NATO Russia on its frontier after Putin is gone.Israel will be concerned about Iran Russia nuclear cooperation and all of the Gulf.

    Many Crimea and Luhansk /Donbas residents are Russian speakers while Russia will be very reluctant to lose the Black Sea port of Sevastapol and yield control of Sea of Azoz to whoever controls the diamond shaped Crimean peninsula. A glance at the Atlas clarifies this.

    I can see no equivalence between the invaders and those defending their homeland .

    In addition the many well documented indiscriminate daily attacks on civilians means those responsible are war criminals and will face sanction, arrest and justice if they can be captured.
    The actions at Bucha, destroying power and water to non combatants women and children is the action of cowards besmirching the reputation of the Russian army that defeated nazism.

    We are at a that dangerous moment of the wounded cornered bully. Unlike a tiger, rat or croc that can be tranquilized or put down this madman has bio chemical and nukes and has threatened to use them, whether this will happen remains to be seen.

    To those who defend him picture your innocent family facing a freezing winter in damp cold ruins being shelled by a foreign invader who is to known to murder , rape and pillage.
    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    will swallow any old jizz

  24. #10174
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    The world agrees to remove sanctions if Puffy fucks off back to Russia.
    . . . and pays reparations

  25. #10175
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    Commenting on the withdrawal, Ben Wallace said that "the world shouldn't be grateful for Russia handing back stolen property".

    Ukraine war: Kyiv claims major gains as Russia exits Kherson - BBC News

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