Ukraine war mega thread

[helge]

It is ludicrous to suggest that it was something in Ukraines behaviour that prompted Putin to suddenly decide to invade.

Why ?

I'm starting to suspect that Putin may have psychological challenges which makes him very dangerous at this point

Does one rule out the other ?

[NamPikToot]

Sane people working together:

No, God you are so ridiculous. The Russians took the plant, the Ukrainians as right minded people will work to ensure there is no danger to their country from Chernobyl.

[helge]

the Ukrainians as right minded people will work to ensure there is no danger to their country from Chernobyl.

Ofcourse

And Belarus might be interested too

In 86 they got the heavy hit radiation wise

[misskit]

^^^^ While that may be good news, the Ukranians already had it under control themselves. Didn’t need the Russians to barge in.

[russellsimpson]

[QUOTE=helge;4370933] Originally Posted by russellsimpson
It is ludicrous to suggest that it was something in Ukraines behaviour that prompted Putin to suddenly decide to invade.

Helge: Why?

You tell me.

What happened in the days before the invasion that would have triggered Putin to suddenly change his mind and go for a 'full scale' invasion.

I don't think it was ever on the agenda for Ukraine to join NATO.

[misskit]

Is Putin suffering 'delirium and confusion' due to Long COVID? Questions arise over Russian leader's mental state after rumours of cancer and Parkinson's disease

Vladimir Putin, 69, could be suffering from hubris syndrome, according to expertIt is associated with a loss of contact with reality and inability to weigh up risk Rumours of Putin's poor health have been circulating for years In 2014, New York Post reported Vladimir Putin had 'cancer of the spinal cord' Putin was allegedly being treated by a doctor from the old East Germany Meanwhile in 2020, Valery Solovei, a critic of Putin, repeated the claims Said Putin had surgery in February, source added it was abdominal cancer.


With the eyes of the world on Vladimir Putin, questions are being asked about the Russian leader’s state of mind after he announced the invasion of Ukraine in ‘rambling, terrifying, apocalyptic’ fashion.


Rumours surrounding the Russian leader’s health have been swirling for years, with repeated reports suggesting that he is suffering from cancer and Parkinson’s disease.

On top of that, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on both the President’s physical and mental health can’t be underestimated, and it’s been suggested that brain fog as a result of Long Covid could be impairing his cognitive function.


Although it’s not clear if he’s had the virus, the Sputnik vaccine is not known to be reliable and after isolating in September after members of his inner circle tested positive he disappeared from view for a long period in October.

The US thinktank The Council For Foreign relations has speculated that, after behaviour and statements that are ‘off’ and ‘not right,’ he is suffering brain fog induced by Long Covid.


What’s more, the isolation caused by the pandemic itself could have left the 69-year-old even further detached from reality, with one neuropsychologist claiming the ‘progressive isolation’ could have led to hubris syndrome, which ‘diminished his ability to weigh up risk’.

Speaking to FEMAIL, Clinical Director at Medicine Direct. Hussain Abdeh explained how a person’s mental state could be uprooted by the virus.
He explained: ‘Research early on into the pandemic also found that a small number of people who tested positive for COVID-19 experienced sudden behavioural changes including delirium, confusion, and agitation.’

Speculation is mounting that Vladimir Putin could be suffering from the effects of long-Covid, which experts suggesting his ability to ‘weigh up risk’ may have been impacted during the pandemic


Pundits were amused earlier this month when photographs emerged of Emmanuel Macron kept at a distance during his crunch meeting with Putin over Ukraine
It is commonly associated with a loss of contact with reality and an overestimation of one’s own competence, accomplishments or capabilities.
It is characterised by a pattern of exuberant self-confidence, recklessness and contempt for others, and is most particularly recognised in subjects holding positions of significant power.


Surrounded by Russian cronies who are terrified to tell him no, Putin is hardly a world leader who could be associated with being the most grounded or level headed.


But in televised addresses leading up to the invasion of Ukraine, he’s been by turns rambling, terrifying and apocalyptic while yesterday he gave a chilling warning to its allies in the West, promising there would be dire consequences for any foreign state that ‘interferes’.

In March 2020, Putin went to extraordinary lengths to avoid catching the virus during a hospital visit, donning a full hazmat suit at Russia’s main coronavirus clinic


Meanwhile Professor Ian Robertson, a neuropsychologist at Trinity College Dublin, has suggested Putin could be suffering from hubris syndrome.
Speaking to The I, Robertson said Putin’s political trajectory ‘is as much personal as political, because once the hubris syndrome takes hold in the brain, the personal and the national are identical because the leader is the nation and its destiny’.


Meanwhile he also said changes in the frontal lobe of the brain caused by the condition could diminish the person’s ability to weigh up risk.

Here FEMAIL analyses the health woes which have plagued Putin over the last decade – and how they could have impacted his mental state…



HOW LONG-COVID COULD BE IMPACTING PUTIN’S MENTAL STATE

At the start of the pandemic, Putin went to extraordinary lengths to avoid catching the virus during a hospital visit, donning a full hazmat suit at Russia’s main coronavirus clinic.

But on the whole, the President has stayed decidedly out of the public eye during the Covid-19 crisis, with officials and journalists having to self-isolate before meeting the president.

Last year, Russian Olympic medalists invited to meet with president were told they would need to spend a week in quarantine before the meeting went ahead.

And in September, it emerged Putin had entered self-isolation after a member of his entourage contracted Covid-19 despite extensive precautions.

The Russian president abandoned a scheduled trip to Tajikistan, and did not campaign in person for parliamentary elections.

He has been fully vaccinated with the Russian coronavirus vaccine Sputnik V – receiving his second jab in April.

Dr Paul Ettlinger, GP at The London General Practice added to FEMAIL: ‘Long Covid can certainly affect your mental health. It affects people’s ability to resume normal life and their capacity to do work.

‘It can comprise of a number of debilitating symptoms, with fatigue and muscle weakness being a frequently reported symptom, which can last for weeks or months.

‘It is a disfunction of the autonomic nervous system similar to chronic fatigue syndrome and can cause you to have an inability to make accurate decisions and to experience a clouded mind resulting in feelings of confusion.

‘You need to look at the individual as a whole when viewing how a person’s mental health may have been affected.

‘For example if someone spent some time in intensive care with Covid they may well be experiencing post traumatic stress. Also if their symptoms resulted in a period of time off work then they may also have feelings of isolation which can impact their mental health.

‘Cognitive impairment, known as mental fog, can continue for much longer even if the patient feels physically back to normal. I believe many Covid sufferers have unrecognised post-infection cognitive impairment, manifesting in subtle memory impairment.

‘A balanced diet and graduated exercise are important in managing all manifestations of long Covid. Brain exercises will improve “brain fog” and cognition – so whatever familiar exercises you like doing, for example crosswords, bridge, wordle or simply reading a book which engages you.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Putin was ‘absolutely healthy’, but would self-isolate after coming in contact with someone who contracted the virus.

He did not clarify for how long Putin would remain in self-isolation, but assured that the president will continue working as usual.

Asked if Putin tested negative for the virus, Peskov said: ‘Of course, yes.’

Peskov did not say who among Putin’s contacts were infected, saying only that there were several cases..
According to Laurie Garrett, former senior fellow at Council on Foreign Relations, Putin disappeared from view in October.

She tweeted: ‘It’s been suggested that #Putin isn’t thinking properly, perhaps due to long #COVID19
‘No proof, of course. In Sept. he went into quarantine after COVID cases emerged in his inner circle.’
He disappeared from view for two weeks before holding an in-person meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Then he continued to have most of his public meetings by video conference/
Garett continued: ‘By October Putin had disappeared. There was widespread speculation that he was sick with #COVID19.

‘But it’s also possible that he was trying to stay safe. The Sputnik #vaccine isn’t very effective against variants — zip anti-#Omicron.’

She added: ‘During the fall, when #Putin was absent from public view polls show Russian people were increasingly mistrusting their President, and the government overall.


‘Rumors spread that Putin was ‘paranoid”.

Footage filmed in November appeared to indicate the leader had been unwell, with Putin suffering a coughing fit during a TV appearance.

Putin was holding a meeting with officials to discuss the ‘acute financial problems’ caused by coronavirus when he suffered the bout of coughing.

The video was later edited so that Putin’s coughing fit seemed less severe.

State news agency TASS asked the Kremlin about Putin’s health and was told he was ‘absolutely normal’.

Vladimir Putin entered self-isolation after a member of his entourage contracted Covid-19 a day after meeting Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in September last year

‘The president apologised and continued the meeting almost without pausing,’ the agency said.

It was claimed earlier this month that Emmanuel Macron was kept at a distance during their crunch meeting over Ukraine after the French President had refused to take a Covid test over fears the Russians would obtain his DNA.
Pundits were struck by photos of Mr Macron and the Russian President sitting at opposite ends of a 13ft long table to discuss the crisis in eastern Europe.

But two sources with knowledge of the French leader’s health protocol said Mr Macron had been asked to take a Covid test by the Kremlin before meeting Mr Putin.

Speaking to the Reuters news agency, the sources claimed that Mr Macron was told either to accept a PCR test conducted by the Russians and be allowed near the dictator, or refuse and abide by more stringent social distancing.

According to Laurie Garrett, former senior fellow at Council on Foreign Relations, Putin disappeared from view in October after he came into contact with Covid cases in September

‘We knew very well that meant no handshake and that long table. But we could not accept that they get their hands on the president’s DNA,’ one source said, referring to security concerns if the French leader was tested by Russian doctors.
‘The Russians told us Putin needed to be kept in a strict health bubble,’ the second source said.
And days ago, he declared war on Ukraine in a rambling and occasionally non-sensical speech, giving a chilling warning to its allies in the West.

Garrett later tweeted: ‘In recent @CFR_org meeting #Putin experts said his behavior and statements are ‘off’ and ‘not right,’ suggesting he’s suffering the brain fog induced by #COVID19 .

‘No way to confirm. But much of his army is surely infected, even sick.’

Speaking to FEMAIL, Mr Abdeh said: ‘If you have severe acute COVID-19, it may result in cognitive impairment, such as concentration issues, confusion, and difficulty remembering things. This is commonly referred to as ‘brain fog’.
‘COVID-19 is a respiratory disease, and studies have already shown that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with increased cognitive impairment.

‘Brain fog is more likely to occur in people who are already run down or fatigued.’


HOW RUMOURS THE RUSSIAN LEADER IS SUFFERING FROM CANCER HAVE BEEN CIRCULATING FOR ALMOST A DECADE

In 2014, the Kremlin denied reports from an American newspaper that Putin maybe suffering from pancreatic cancer.
The Russian president’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted by RIA Novosti news agency saying: ‘Dream on – and curse their tongues. Everything is normal.’

Peskov had been asked to comment on the reports from The New York Post, which spread to other media.

The US paper’s report headlined ‘Putin’s Health Woes’ claimed there were rumours in Poland and Belarus that the 62 year old strongman had ‘cancer of the spinal cord’.

But the Post’s Richard Johnson wrote: ‘My sources say it’s pancreatic cancer, one of the most lethal forms of the disease.’

Vladimir Putin had cancer surgery on his abdomen, a prominent critic claimed in November 2020
The report went on: ‘Putin was allegedly being treated by a doctor from the old East Germany.

‘The doc had been trying various treatments, including steroid shots, which would explain Putin’s puffy appearance.
‘But I’m told the physician quit recently, confiding that he was mistreated by Putin’s security detail.’

Later that year in November, a prominent critic of Putin claimed that the Russian president was suffering from cancer and underwent surgery.

Valery Solovei, who claims to have sources ‘at the epicentre of decision making’, suggested 68-year-old Putin had the operation in February.

Another unnamed source suggested the operation was on Putin’s abdomen.

The Kremlin firmly denied that there is anything wrong with Putin’s health at the time.

It was unclear exactly when Solovei believes the alleged cancer operation took place, but sources claimed Putin’s first appearance afterwards was a flower-laying ceremony on February 19.

Solovei also claimed that Putin’s gymnast lover Alina Kabaeva, have been urging him to step down from power.

A VOCAL CRITIC OF PUTIN CLAIMED HE HAD PARKINSON’S LAST YEAR

It’s not the first time that reports have emerged of Putin’s ongoing health battles.

Experts previously noted his ‘gunslinger’s gait’ – a clearly reduced right arm swing compared to his left, giving him a lilting swagger.

An asymmetrically reduced arm swing is a classic feature of Parkinson’s and can manifest in ‘clinically intact subjects with a predisposition to later develop’ the disease, according to the British Medical Journal.

Footage circulated in Russia of Putin’s legs moving around as he gripped onto the armrest of a chair, suggesting his ill health.

Eyes are also drawn to a twitching pen in the former KGB operative’s fingers and a cup which analysts suggested were filled with painkillers.

Critics have previously noted his ‘gunslinger’s gait’ – a clearly reduced right arm swing compared to his left, giving him a lilting swagger. An asymmetrically reduced arm swing is a classic feature of Parkinson’s
As well as stating Putin has cancer, Solovei also suggested that he has Parkinson’s.

Solovei, former head of PR at Moscow State Institute of International Relations, believed at the time that Putin planned on stepping down in January due to his health problems and was planning to name daughter Katerina Tikhonova as his successor.

Speaking about Putin’s alleged ill-health, he said: ”One is of psycho-neurological nature, the other is a cancer problem.
‘If anyone is interested in the exact diagnosis, I’m not a doctor, and I have no ethical right to reveal these problems.
‘The second diagnosis is a lot, lot more dangerous than the first named diagnosis as Parkinson’s does not threaten physical state, but just limits public appearances.

‘Based on this information people will be able to make a conclusion about his life horizon, which wouldn’t even require specialist medical education.’

Mr Abdeh told FEMAIL: ‘An early sign of Parkinson’s that many people are completely unaware of is that it can change your walk in very subtle ways.

‘They are so subtle that even the sufferer may not be aware of them. People who are suffering from Parkinson’s may lose the natural swing in their arms while they are walking; this can occur in one or both arms.

‘As Parkinson’s disease progresses, a person may take longer to take steps as they walk.

‘They may start to take smaller steps and also develop a shuffling gait. The way they walk may change from natural strides to taking small but rapid steps that thrust them forward.

‘In advanced cases of Parkinson’s disease, sufferers may experience temporary ‘freezing’ moments, where they want to walk but feel frozen to the spot.
‘This may mean that their upper body moves forward but their legs stay where they are.’

Is Putin suffering 'delirium and confusion' due to Long COVID? Questions arise over Russian leader's mental state after rumours of cancer and Parkinson's disease

[Backspin]

[QUOTE=russellsimpson;4370940]

Originally Posted by russellsimpson
It is ludicrous to suggest that it was something in Ukraines behaviour that prompted Putin to suddenly decide to invade.

Helge: Why?

You tell me.

What happened in the days before the invasion that would have triggered Putin to suddenly change his mind and go for a 'full scale' invasion.

I don't think it was ever on the agenda for Ukraine to join NATO.

Russia asked for negotiations on security in December. The US denied all negotiations and instead , delivered 1500 tons of Nato weapons in "not in NATO" Ukraine.

Months ago , I started this thread and on my 2nd reply I said war is guaranteed

[helge]

It is ludicrous to suggest that it was something in Ukraines behaviour that prompted Putin to suddenly decide to invade.

Why ?

You tell me.

I don't think it's ludicrous to suggest, that it was something in Ukraine's behaviour that triggered Putin to invade.

And do define 'suddenly decide'.

I'm starting to suspect that Putin may have psychological challenges which makes him very dangerous at this point

Does one rule out the other ?

What happened in the days before the invasion that would have triggered Putin to suddenly change his mind and go for a 'full scale' invasion.

Millitary textbook stuff or as you suggests: His challenges ?

One or the other

[OhOh]

Didn’t need the Russians

Trust but verify?

[OhOh]

I don't think it was ever on the agenda for Ukraine to join NATO.

I refer you to last weeks "security" meeting in Munich.

The reluctance to adhere to previously agreed international treaties ......

[OhOh]

Allegedly splattered, NaGastan style, by western media sources, some Ukraine soldiers arrive in Crimea:

"82 Ukrainian servicemen reach Crimea's Sevastopol after voluntarily laying down arms on Zmeiniy Island. After going through short-term legal procedures, the soldiers of the Ukrainian army will be sent home to their families."

[david44]

^^^^ While that may be good news, the Ukranians already had it under control themselves. Didn’t need the Russians to barge in.

Quite right Kitty

aside form doing their extremely important technical duty why would they endanger the lives of their nation, families, themselves?

A sloppy painter may mess up a room , a sloppy nuclear scientists well Fukushima and Chernobyl shows the results.

The so called co-operation between ordinary workers may be businesslike but in my limited management training exprience holding weapons and threatening staff is no longer encouraged outside the gangster, pimping professions or local authorities in dictatorships.

Of course in military control wen you have them by the balls the hearts and minds will follow.
Sadly men fightiig on home turf will be highly motivate defending their homes families and graves of their ancestors as USA discovered in Vietnam.

Some suggest Putin may welcome limited initial casualties to drive up fervour and the arms dealers always want wars.

Without regime change in Russia tis could be a bloody quagmire. for years like Bosnia, we can see from his constant re election rigging Putin won't go quietly.
He'll either go on for years or be overthrown by internal or external power which seems unlikely. He is teh key problem.
Of course Medvedev and others may step into hi splace but he has like dictators before become part of a cult , you always know when you are in cult tplaces, photos , flag waving , national songs before the news, Lucky it doesn't happen in the democracy that is the land of smirks,

[NamPikToot]

a sloppy nuclear scientists well Fukushima and Chernobyl shows the results.

That is a silly statement. They weren't sloppy, they trusted the processes and information and design at the time. The problem with Nuclear installations is that a mistake can be catastrophic.

[HermantheGerman]

Allegedly splattered, NaGastan style, by western media sources, some Ukraine soldiers arrive in Crimea:

Our communist SCUMBAG OhOh is back

[HermantheGerman]

Why ?


Does one rule out the other ?

Still asking questions Helge

[HermantheGerman]

I don't think it's ludicrous to suggest, that it was something in Ukraine's behaviour that triggered Putin to invade.

But it is ludicrous not to suggest that Putin is a madman
Unless your name is Hans Christian Andersen

[david44]

That is a silly statement. They weren't sloppy, they trusted the processes and information and design at the time. The problem with Nuclear installations is that a mistake can be catastrophic.

I beg to differ on one of the few areas I have some knowledge but don't listen to the monkey read the grinder.YOu may dislike the term sloppy, would inadequate, jejune, piss poor better convey the lack of safety first , contingency , drill s, training in one of the most studied yet difficult environments to handle once the alarms go off.

1 Chernobyl, emphasis in red is mine, you are welcome to post contradictory opinions with links please.

Chernobyl | Chernobyl Accident | Chernobyl Disaster - World Nuclear Association.

Chernobyl Accident 1986

(Updated February 2022)

• The Chernobyl accident in 1986 was the result of a flawed reactor design that was operated with inadequately trained personnel.
• The resulting steam explosion and fires released at least 5% of the radioactive reactor core into the environment, with the deposition of radioactive materials in many parts of Europe.
• Two Chernobyl plant workers died due to the explosion on the night of the accident, and a further 28 people died within a few weeks as a result of acute radiation syndrome.
• The United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation has concluded that, apart from some 5000 thyroid cancers (resulting in 15 fatalities), "there is no evidence of a major public health impact attributable to radiation exposure 20 years after the accident."
• Some 350,000 people were evacuated as a result of the accident, but resettlement of areas from which people were relocated is ongoing.

The April 1986 disaster at the Chernobyla nuclear power plant in Ukraine was the product of a flawed Soviet reactor design coupled with serious mistakes made by the plant operators. It was a direct consequence of Cold War isolation and the resulting lack of any safety culture.


The accident destroyed the Chernobyl 4 reactor, killing 30 operators and firemen within three months and several further deaths later. One person was killed immediately and a second died in hospital soon after as a result of injuries received. Another person is reported to have died at the time from a coronary thrombosisc. Acute radiation syndrome (ARS) was originally diagnosed in 237 people onsite and involved with the clean-up and it was later confirmed in 134 cases. Of these, 28 people died as a result of ARS within a few weeks of the accident. Nineteen more workers subsequently died between 1987 and 2004

2 Fukushima

An extract
"By contrast, the Fukushima accident—superficially at least—appears to be very different. The plant was hit by a massive earthquake and then a tsunami, triggering a chain of events that led to fuel melting and a significant off-site release of radiation. The accident has reinforced public sentiment worldwide—from Japan to Switzerland, and Germany to India—that nuclear power is unacceptably risky.One year after the Fukushima accident, however, a picture is emerging that suggests that the calamity was not simply an “act of god” that could not be defended against. There is a growing body of evidence that suggests the accident was the result of failures in regulation and nuclear plant design and that both were lagging behind international best practices and standards. Had these been heeded and applied, the risks to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station would likely have been recognized and effective steps to prevent a major accident could have been taken. In this sense, we believe the Fukushima accident—like its predecessors—was preventable."

https://carnegieendowment.org/2012/0...able-pub-47361

Of course building in a Tsunami and earthquake zone seems insane to many too but had pumps been higher tthe Pacific would be less contaminated for nest 2000+ years

[HermantheGerman]

It was a direct consequence of Cold War isolation and the resulting lack of any safety culture.

That means more Russian reactors will blow up soon

Maybe that's why the Fuehrer put his nuclear forces on high alert.

[kingwilly]

BREAKING: Putin puts russian nuclear forces in special combat mode over aggressive statements from NATO

any link, cretin?

[David48atTD]

Gentlemen, may we get back to discussing the Russian invasion of
the Sovereign State of Ukraine

and leave the broader debate of China,
the reasons why Chernobyl failed etc to other threads for other days.

[David48atTD]

Putin orders Russian nuclear deterrence forces on high alert

Russian President Vladimir Putin put his country’s nuclear deterrence forces on high alert Sunday amid a growing global backlash against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Live updates -> Russia Ukraine updates: Putin orders nuclear deterrence forces on alert

[david44]

enuff aleady
genug schon

[David48atTD]

no personal animosity

None taken

[sabang]

What an excellent article. Deserves it's own thread?



The world is united on Ukraine, divided on America

As Cold War II rises on the horizon, the world is wary of taking sides.


“In terms of a Cold War… you have the vast majority of the rest of the world in total opposition to what [Putin] is doing… It’s going to be a cold day for Russia,” observed US President Joe Biden at a February 24 press conference shortly after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. But in the following few days, international reactions fell short of a universal denunciation of Moscow.

The two major Asian nations, China and India did not sharply condemn the Russian attack, nor did large African nations like Nigeria, South Africa, and Egypt.


Brazil also wavered until it succumbed to US pressure to vote in favour of the UN Security Council condemning the Russian invasion on February 25. And while 11 out of 15 UN Security Council members did vote in favour of the resolution, many states stopped short of unequivocal condemnation and most just called for the cessation of violence and return to negotiations.

All of which begs the question, why? Why have the economically and strategically unified and dominant Western nations failed to secure unequivocal universal denunciation of what is evidently a blatant violation of international law?

The short answer: it may have less to do with Ukraine and more to do with America. There is fear and suspicion among nations of being dragged into another Cold War showdown between the US and Russia. Kyiv may be the victim and Moscow the aggressor, but in the eyes of many, Washington is not totally innocent in all of this.

As the self-appointed “world policeman”, the US stands accused or at least is seen to interfere in the internal affairs of other states under different pretexts, including in and around Russia and China.

It is also been accused of double standards when it comes to aggression, occupation and international law violations – one for allies and another for the rest, just as was the case during the Cold War.

That war might have been cold in the north, but it was burning hot in the Global South, where Moscow and Washington engaged in proxy conflicts to advance their interests, regardless of the cost.

A second Cold War would be as bad and even worse if today’s interconnected and interdependent world becomes deeply polarised between the West and NATO on one side, and Russia and China on the other – not only for individual states, but for humanity at large.

Since the end of the Cold War in the late 1980s, most states have diversified their economic and military relations with world powers and prefer not to choose between Russia and the US or between the EU and China.

Many countries are also looking out for their own interests amid the geopolitical polarisation, and some are dependent on Russia for wheat, energy, and military hardware or on China for investments, loans and trade.

And yet for decades, the US has repeatedly demanded nations get behind it in crisis times or pay the price. “You are either with us or against us,” warned US President George W Bush on the eve of his “global war on terror” following the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington.

And soon after the US designated Iran, Iraq and North Korea the world’s “axis of evil” and prepared to invade Iraq, it demanded that nations take its side or incur its wrath.

The following decade, Washington raised pressure on China and demanded of all its trading partners to get behind it or face the consequences.
The Trump administration even went as far as warning members of the United Nations that it was “taking names” of those who voted in favour of a resolution condemning its decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

As the US is waning, China rising, and Russia coming back with a vengeance, the US’s coercive tone has become rather weird, tired and desperate, prompting countries to keep their options open.

No longer are states trusting Washington to help, protect, or defend them, not after its humiliation in Afghanistan and its defeat in Iraq; not after its blunders in Syria, Yemen, Libya and other world hotspots; and certainly, not after inciting Ukraine only to leave it at the mercy of Russian military might.

The world has also lost its innocence over the past decades and no longer buys into Washington’s lofty slogans of freedom and democracy, when both are under attack in America itself.

When the invasion of Ukraine started, Biden was quick to assure the American society that they would not have to fight, suffer or even pay more for gas. Or, as one observer commented sardonically, “America is about to fight Russia until the last Ukrainian soldier.”

It is too early to tell whether such international scepticism will lead to an initiative similar to the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) which was joined by over 100 nations during the Cold War. But what is clear, is that today’s global challenges require less polarisation and more cooperation.

A second Cold War is sure to hinder the urgent international efforts to combat climate change, hamper critical coordination on dealing with pandemics, and impede critical global cooperation to ensure food security and eradicate poverty and disease.

A second Cold War will lead to another arms race, and bring the world closer to a nuclear showdown. Indeed, the nuclear annihilation of humanity is “only one impulsive tantrum away”, in the words of a recent Nobel Peace Prize Winner.

In short, a second Cold War will cause terrible human suffering, economic decline, and a global conflict with incalculable consequences.

Yet, as Washington is adamant to punish Russia for its bellicosity and aggression, it is hoping or perhaps planning for Ukraine to become Russia’s Afghanistan-like nightmare. Some reckon it is Biden’s “Truman moment”, to pursue a “strategy of containment” towards Russia, as his predecessor did 75 years ago.

But the way forward in Europe cannot be the way back. And the scenarios before us should not be limited to war: a protracted Cold War or a devastating nuclear war. In fact, as I write these words, Putin has put Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces on high alert after a joint NATO statement was deemed threatening.

The international community is overwhelmingly in favour of Ukraine recovering its sovereignty, albeit as a buffer state between Russia and NATO countries, and must do all to reach an immediate ceasefire, support the diplomatic process, and ultimately push for a dialogue between the West and Russia over the future security of Europe.

Yes, the Russian invasion requires a tough response, but it should be one that opens the door for peace. The West has no right sacrificing Ukraine at the altar of a new Cold War.


Marwan Bishara
Senior political analyst at Al Jazeera.
Marwan Bishara is an author who writes extensively on global politics and is widely regarded as a leading authority on US foreign policy, the Middle East and international strategic affairs. He was previously a professor of International Relations at the American University of Paris.

The world is united on Ukraine, divided on America | Russia-Ukraine crisis | Al Jazeera

[Backspin]

EU Head of Foreign Affairs @JosepBorrellF
: “We cannot block the reserves of the Russian Central Bank in Moscow. Or In China. In the last year Russia has been placing their reserves in places where we can’t block them. Russia has been preparing for sanctions financially"