Ukraine war mega thread

[bsnub]

Don't you have some considerably more pressing domestic chores to attend to than constantly picking fights in other peoples backyard?

So once again posting off-topic drivel.

Show your proof.

Fuck off moron there are tons of satellite photos all over the internet.

[bsnub]

Don't you have some considerably more pressing domestic chores to attend to than constantly picking fights in other peoples backyard?

So once again posting off-topic drivel.

Show your proof.

Fuck off moron, there are tons of satellite photos all over the internet. Not even Putin is denying that they are there.

There is a reason that you lot are known as the Three Stooges, and this is the reason why.

[sabang]

So once again posting off-topic drivel.

It isn't off topic at all- as Norton pointed out in a previous post, it is quite common for regimes with 'domestic problems' to try and deflect public attention from them by stirring up trouble overseas. Sadly, it often works too- at least in the short term.

[bsnub]

It isn't off topic at all- as Norton pointed out in a previous post, it is quite common for regimes with 'domestic problems' to try and deflect public attention from them by stirring up trouble overseas.

Jesus fucking Christ. Does the US have 130k troops bivouacked in tents on the Ukrainian frontier? You are proving to be a totally disingenuous hypocrite. Unbelievable to continue pushing such a blatantly fake narrative. Only utter morons would be fooled by your idiocy.

[HuangLao]

Yes, just like previous threads about Iraq and the threat it poses, Afganistan, Libya, Syria etc. Outcome, always much the same- a bloody debacle. Don't you have some considerably more pressing domestic chores to attend to than constantly picking fights in other peoples backyard? I assure you, they are not panicking in Berlin or Kiev- it is only the anglos and their pet media poodles with the histrionics and war drums. Give it a rest, and start fixing up your own damn mess.

In some macabre and fanciful manner, this type of character trait [that some commonly display here] is considered quite developed.
Rather odd, to say the least.

[sabang]

Russia is not going to invade Ukraine, and Ukraine is not going to invade Donetsk Republic. That's the stand-off. Quit trying to march nations to war America- and maybe even do something productive at Home- which is where your main problems really lie. Leave the adults to arrive at a diplomatic solution. Didn't you get a slight hint when Macron called a diplomatic summit to address the situation, and visibly left the US out. Can you take a Hint?

[bsnub]

In some macabre and fanciful manner, this type of character trait [that some commonly display here] is considered quite developed.
Rather odd, to say the least.

Fuck off Jeff.

[bsnub]

Russia is not going to invade Ukraine, and Ukraine is not going to invade Donetsk Republic. That's the stand-off.

What a laughable comment to make. Do you understand how stupid that sounds? Why would it take 130k Russian troops? They were not there for the last seven years, so why all of a sudden in the dead of winter without provocation would they be needed now?

Your position is utterly laughable.

I want to reiterate that the US is not going to defend or get involved in any ground war in Ukraine. Stop bringing the US up. You are using that to deflect.

[sabang]

Snubby, you share the same intelligence as your opinion masters. Y'know, the ones that brought us the bloody debacles in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Libya- and that is this century alone, and not a complete list. Really intelligent, e'hhh. The results speak for themselves, and frankly weigh on this Humanists conscience.

The real trick of History dear boy is to learn from it- not repeat it ad infinitum. And good Housekeeping starts at Home.

[NamPikToot]

Most of the last two pages belong in SoCals Mega thread.

[bsnub]

Snubby, you share the same intelligence as your opinion masters.

I have no masters you on the other hand are a useful idiot of Putin and Xi.

Y'know, the ones that brought us the bloody debacles in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Libya- and that is this century alone, and not a complete list. Really intelligent, e'hhh. The results speak for themselves, and frankly weigh on this Humanists conscience.

More off-topic drivel.

[sabang]

OFF TOPIC!!

We are talking current events dear boy. Does it make you proud, all those incinerated babies, raped and enslaved women, decimation of whole nations and societies?

Then be proud, because as best I can see those are your foreign policy achievements this century- and we are only 22 years in. Meanwhile, your own nation goes to shit.

[bsnub]

OFF TOPIC!!

Once again, you are off your rocker. This thread is about the Ukraine and why Russia has 130,000 soldiers massed on the Ukrainian border, NOT the US. Stop trying to flip the narrative.

Are you drunk?

[OhOh]

Fuck off moron there are tons of satellite photos all over the internet.

The one source you posted was a fake.

The "rest of the internet", western or otherwise, what evidence have they found, other than the NaGastani propaganda?



Ir shall we believe the POTUS and his minions, "no evidence of invasions". Lots of "possible, probables ...." but evidence - NONE.

[sabang]

40,000 of them are permanently stationed in Crimea- and they certainly are not going anywhere. The largest base besides that is some 200km from the Ukrainian border. Quit wetting your panties. As I've pointed out, there are no soiled nappies to be found in Kiev or Berlin. Grow up, and do some desperately overdue Housekeeping.

[harrybarracuda]

Yes, just like previous threads about Iraq and the threat it poses, Afganistan, Libya, Syria etc. Outcome, always much the same- a bloody debacle. Don't you have some considerably more pressing domestic chores to attend to than constantly picking fights in other peoples backyard? I assure you, they are not panicking in Berlin or Kiev- it is only the anglos and their pet media poodles with the histrionics and war drums. Give it a rest, and start fixing up your own damn mess.

Afghanistan, Libya and Syria were already bloody debacles before the US got involved.

You utter fucking moron.

[harrybarracuda]

It isn't off topic at all- as Norton pointed out in a previous post, it is quite common for regimes with 'domestic problems' to try and deflect public attention from them by stirring up trouble overseas. Sadly, it often works too- at least in the short term.

You've just explained why Putin is beating his jingoistic drum. Well done.

[bsnub]

The one source you posted was a fake.

I never posted a source, you buffoon.

You've just explained why Putin is beating his jingoistic drum. Well done.

Precisely right.

[harrybarracuda]

Most of the last two pages belong in SoCals Mega thread.

Anything by the three stooges belongs in the drivel thread.

[harrybarracuda]

Probably too many big words for the three stooges, but an accurate observation nonetheless.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision in late 2021 to amass more than 100,000 soldiers on the Russian border with Ukraine and then to send thousands more into Belarus last month—ostensibly for exercises—has seized the West’s, if not the world’s, attention. The precedent seems clear: In 2014, Putin invaded Ukraine, purportedly annexed Crimea, and set up a proxy occupation of two regions in Ukraine’s east, fueled by Russian money, directed by Russian officials, and supported with Russian military and intelligence personnel. Now, he looks poised to come back and take another, even bigger, bite out of Ukraine.


The menacing move has triggered multiple vectors of diplomacy, with Washington offering Moscow serious talks about security concerns while simultaneously rallying partners and allies to be prepared to impose costs—an effort to deter a possible invasion but also to ensure it does not happen with impunity. So far, Putin’s behavior has not encouraged confidence in a diplomatic outcome. In December 2021, the Russians published demands to, effectively, rewind the clock on most of the last quarter century of developments in European security. Sergei Ryabkov, the deputy foreign minister responsible for representing Russia in talks with the United States in mid-January, had no authority to engage on any topics at all unless Russia’s maximalist demands were accepted ex ante. That isn’t the position of a diplomat who has come to do diplomacy; it’s the position of a guy who’s part of a setup.


All of this—and the attempt to avert an invasion—has set off a new round of guessing at what Putin’s objectives are and subsequent conjecture about how to mollify him in an acceptable way. It has become a kind of parlor game in Washington, Berlin, Brussels, London, and Paris to unravel a presumed multistep play, where they imagine Putin hived away in the Kremlin and calmly managing a complex strategy, always half a dozen steps ahead. An endless analysis of ulterior motives by the pundits gets mixed in: Putin wants to restore the Soviet Union, prevent Ukraine from pursuing a European future, draw a red line around NATO, drive a wedge into the West, distract from his failings at home, respond to a genuine—if unwarranted—sense of threat, make things difficult for U.S. President Joe Biden by bringing back former U.S. President Donald Trump, or any combination of the above. Add a few references to the Cold War and its long-game complexities, and it’s easy to see why the chess match metaphor is never far away.


But, as political scientist Eliot Cohen has eloquently noted, the cliche of Putin as a master chess player thinking multiple steps ahead—and the metaphorical corollary of his Western counterparts playing mere checkers—is tired. If anything, it was never apt at all, in no small part because it attributes to genius what is better attributed to base thuggery. And the thing about thuggery is it doesn’t take enormous amounts of strategic thinking to make it effective. It is essentially opportunistic and asymmetric.


The reason Putin so frequently sets the West spinning isn’t because he’s making genius moves; it’s because he’s thrown the chess board across the room and is threatening to turn over the table.


Putin exercises power in international politics by destroying things. He invades and occupies countries. He throttles the supply of gas to threaten freezing European families in the middle of winter. His diplomats at the United Nations and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe are clever international lawyers enlisted in a cynical mission to sabotage the efforts of more responsible countries to build international institutions and tackle common regional and global challenges based on universal human rights. The infrastructure of world peace and prosperity takes time, patience, and skill to build. Knocking the pieces over is easy.


Putin’s genius as a strategist is often overstated. But there are two additional flaws in the chess metaphor that lead to even more consequential analytical mistakes. The metaphor—and others used to describe the high-stakes interaction between Biden and Putin—risks distorting not only the search for policy solutions but also the world’s understanding of the stakes.


One reason why the United States and its allies should be careful not to buy into narratives of Putin’s supposed brilliance is that doing so leads them to negotiate among themselves as they concoct complex positions and potential proposals to present to the supposed mastermind. Take French President Emmanuel Macron’s efforts to position himself as an interlocutor with Putin. Clever as Macron may be, it’s difficult to accept the notion that he might resolve the standoff by devising a more nuanced negotiating position the rest of the world has missed. Because if Putin is just a violent opportunist, such refined stratagems are unlikely to work. The search for an intricate set of moves—conciliatory, hard-line, or both—that would counter Putin or address his multiple motivations is likely a futile one.


The chess metaphor also obscures the moral stakes. Indeed, the discussion in the United States and Europe about the current standoff often seems dangerously detached from any moral worldview. It approaches with intellectual remove the question of whether some sort of agreement can be reached and implicitly encourages indulgence in moral relativism as if the two sides were moral equals. Strikingly, the most powerful condemnation in recent weeks has come—with immense courage—from inside Russia, when Russian human rights activists, artist, and intellectuals signed a public petition to condemn Putin’s threats to invade, stating: “Promoting the idea of such a war is immoral, irresponsible, and criminal, and cannot be implemented on behalf of Russia’s peoples. Such a war cannot have either legal or moral goals.” The petition is an important reminder that what Putin is doing is morally outrageous. He is threatening to kill even more Ukrainians than the 14,000 individuals who have already died since the 2014 conflict began. Ukraine has not threatened Russia or its citizens. Putin is threatening a war of aggression.


This is also a reminder that, given Putin’s credible threats, assistance to Ukraine is to help it with its self-defense. Defense against lethal attack is both morally uncomplicated and sanctioned under international law. Yes, the overall situation is complex and dynamic, but it is striking that some actors think the first and only question to ask is what Putin will think—while giving little consideration to whether a victim is entitled to assistance.


There is nothing chess-like about the current back and forth between Biden and other Western leaders on the one side and Putin on the other. In chess, both players are bound by the same rules, and neither player gets to kill real people. Putin does not play by the same rules. And the asymmetry created by Putin’s willingness to do things he knows others are not willing to do is a direct reflection of moral asymmetry.


This, of course, connects back to the chess metaphor’s essential flaw. The reason Putin so frequently sets Europe and the United States spinning isn’t because he’s making genius moves; it’s because he’s thrown the chess board across the room and is threatening to turn over the table. The reason Russia is so often dictating the agenda isn’t because he’s a mastermind of diplomacy and debate; it’s because he’s a hostage-taker. Worse, he’s a hostage-taker who has historically delighted in killing the hostage.


He’s not a brilliant, inscrutable madman. He’s a bad man—not only because he’s threatening to start another pointless war in Europe. He and his cronies have stolen hundreds of billions of dollars from the Russian people. He has journalists and political figures murdered. He brazenly takes out hits on his domestic enemies in European capitals.


The West doesn’t know what Putin wants, but it does know who he is. The diplomatic effort to engage Putin isn’t an effort to reconcile legitimate interests that are in tension; it’s an effort to get a reckless and immoral actor to stand down. If it fails, it will not be because Putin outsmarted the West. It will be because he saw an opportunity to throw a punch and took it.


The greatest danger right now isn’t that Putin has outplayed the West: It’s that he may feel that he has backed himself into a corner. Like many bullies before him, insecurity may tell Putin that because he’s threatened so much violence, he has no choice but to carry it out. The United States and its allies should continue to be sober and stand firm on his actions’ consequences, offer him off-ramps, and eschew any gratuitous triumphalism if he decides to take one.

Why the Chess Metaphor for Putin Is Wrong

[sabang]

With allies like 'arry snubs, you know your nation will only continue losing. It's what he does best.

Give up this bullshit, and start taking care of some of your domestic problems- your country has dropped way behind the first world nations (oh except the military of course). We feel sorry for you in Australia. Why is your minimum wage only 40% of ours? Why is your murder rate so high? Why are large parts of your cities absolute shitholes (and compare that to China these days, where the streets are safe and public transport is great). Why did your people invade your own Capitol? Why do so many not even believe the results of elections? Why is your public transport system such a sick joke? Talking of sick jokes, your Covid response. Why are you the worlds most incarcerated nation, FFS? All while wallowing in ever deepening debt.

That is what you really should be wetting your panties about- not Putin, or Saddam. Not just these syndromes either- which are concerning enough- but your political systems refusal to address them, and constant deflection to offshore issues which- lets face it- you have only made worse. Your rich get richer, the rest of your once great nation stagnates, stultifies, and withers. Must be time for another war e'hhh- thats the American way.

[bsnub]

More deflectionist off-topic drivel. Almost midnight in Adelaide and Sabang is posting bollocks. Most likely polished off a few bottles of whine by now.

[harrybarracuda]

With allies like 'arry snubs, you know your nation will only continue losing. It's what he does best.

Give up this bullshit, and start taking care of some of your domestic problems

I assume from this feeble attempt at diversionary drivel that my observation about you being an illiterate wanker was spot on.

[bsnub]

I assume from this feeble attempt at diversionary drivel that my observation about you being an illiterate wanker was spot on.

He doesn't even bother to read the articles.

[OhOh]

I never posted a source

My apologies, you are correct you posted your opinion:

This is a thread about Ukraine and the threat that Russia poses, with 130k soldiers sitting on the boarder in tents in the middle of the Russian winter.

Your post was a fake

Your post, Today, 06:17 PM:

Fuck off moron, there are tons of satellite photos all over the internet. Not even Putin is denying that they are there.

I'll rephrase my question.

The LORD has said for many months there are Russia forces deployed all over Russia.

The "rest of the internet", western or otherwise, what evidence have they found, other than the NaGastani propaganda?



Or shall we believe the POTUS and his minions, "no evidence of invasions". Lots of "possible, probables ...." but evidence - NONE.