Ukraine war mega thread

[panama hat]

Hmmm so which would cause more damage to Ukraine?

Losing EU business or losing chinky business?

Oh, Oh

It's always surprising how facts frighten some people.

Fact:

The EU is Ukraine's largest trading partner, accounting for more than 40% of its trade in 2019.

Total trade between EU and Ukraine reached €43,3 bn in 2019.

Ukraine exports to the EU amounted to €19.1 bn in 2019.

Apologist, diversionary, incorrect waffle:
OhWoe and sabangs waffle.

[sabang]

I am just trying to benefit the Ukrainian people and nation- I really love their Borscht, and the Russians in Donetsk. What exactly is Putins huge win, considering a price can probably be extracted diplomatically?

[bsnub]

I think the balance of trade will inevitably swing more towards the west over time- given the politics.

[NamPikToot]

What exactly is Putins huge win

when has he needed wins? once his oil and gas becomes less relevant what does he offer the world to be relevant anymore. In the meantime he'll do what he's been doing, trying to still ensure anyone gives a shit about a country that's wasted its vast natural reserves and achieved the sum of fuk all under his tenure.

[harrybarracuda]

I am just trying to benefit the Ukrainian people and nation- I really love their Borscht, and the Russians in Donetsk. What exactly is Putins huge win, considering a price can probably be extracted diplomatically?

It does not benefit the Ukrainian people or nation to slice parts off their country and foment civil war in it, you utterly silly arse.

[sabang]

Then why did they have the Maidan revolution, that overthrew the elected government and split the old Ukrainian federation in half?

[panama hat]

Then why

Hmmm so which would cause more damage to Ukraine?

Losing EU business or losing chinky business?

Oh, Oh

It's always surprising how facts frighten some people.

Fact:

The EU is Ukraine's largest trading partner, accounting for more than 40% of its trade in 2019.

Total trade between EU and Ukraine reached €43,3 bn in 2019.

Ukraine exports to the EU amounted to €19.1 bn in 2019.

Apologist, diversionary, incorrect waffle:
OhWoe and sabangs waffle.

[sabang]

So you like going around in circles PH? OK.

EXPORTSThe top exports of Ukraine are Corn ($4.77B), Seed Oils ($3.75B), Iron Ore ($3.36B), Wheat ($3.11B), and Semi-Finished Iron ($2.55B),
exporting mostly to Russia ($4.69B), China ($3.94B), Germany ($3.08B), Poland ($2.75B), and Italy ($2.57B).


IMPORTSThe top imports of Ukraine are Refined Petroleum ($4.3B), Cars ($2.64B), Packaged Medicaments ($1.84B), Coal Briquettes ($1.76B), and Petroleum Gas ($1.49B),
importing mostly from China ($7.36B), Russia ($6.62B), Germany ($5.33B), Poland ($5.18B), and Belarus ($4.14B).

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ukr/


Certainly, in a national sense, UKR's two dominant trading partners are Russia and China.

You can obfuscate all you like, but the EU is not a nation.

[panama hat]

So you like going around in circles PH? OK.

More like staying on topic. Try it.

You can obfuscate all you like, but the EU is not a nation.

Irrelevant attempt at obfuscation yet again.

The EU is Ukraine's largest trading partner, accounting for more than 40% of its trade in 2019.

Total trade between EU and Ukraine reached €43,3 bn in 2019.

Ukraine exports to the EU amounted to €19.1 bn in 2019.

[sabang]

Still more circles? Yes the trading Bloc of the 27 nations that constitute the EU, if totalled together, are Ukraine's biggest trade destination.
In a national sense however, UKR's biggest trade partners are Russia and China. That is just plain unassailable Fact. Capiche?

[panama hat]

Starts with:

Russia is Ukraines biggest trade partner still. Europeans want nothing to do with what Ukraine sells.

Still more circles?

Nope, just facts based on the discussion. If you want to throw other parameters into the equation then you have a different discussion.

That is just plain unassailable Fact.

Capiche?

Your whataboutism makes you look the fool far too often and you really should stop doing it.

[sabang]

So to the bottom line- Ukraine has vital trade links to both the East and the West. Which should surprise no-one, given it's location.

[HermantheGerman]

So to the bottom line- Ukraine has vital trade links to both the East and the West. Which should surprise no-one, given it's location.

Nope, what PH is trying to tell you is that your last 9x posts are just plain rubbish. You have clearly reached the bottom line.

[OhOh]

Losing EU business or losing chinky business?

As illustrated elsewhere, EU countries are actively engaged with China on expanding trade.

once his oil and gas becomes less relevant

When are you suggesting oil and gas will no longer be needed, for many reasons, 20, 50 .... years?

[OhOh]

Ukraine Commanders Say a Russian Invasion Would Overwhelm Them

Dec 9, 2564

"Unfortunately, Ukraine needs to be objective at this stage,” said Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service. “There are not sufficient military resources for repelling a full-scale attack by Russia if it begins without the support of Western forces.”

Budanov outlined his nightmare vision of a Russian invasion that would begin with airstrikes and rocket attacks aimed initially at ammunition depots and trench-bound troops. Very quickly, he said, the Ukrainian military would be incapacitated, its leadership unable to coordinate a defence and supply the front. After that, he said, responsibility would fall to front-line commanders to carry on the fight alone.

“They will hold up as long as there are bullets,” Budanov said. “They’ll be able to use what they have in their hands, but believe me without delivery of reserves, there’s not an army in the world that can hold out.”

The Russian missiles could wipe out a significant part of the Ukrainian military in less than an hour, said Robert Lee, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran and PhD candidate at King’s College in London, who is a Russian military expert.
“If Russia really wants to unleash its conventional capabilities, they could inflict massive damage in a very short period of time,” Lee said. “They can devastate the Ukrainian military in the east really quickly, within the first 30-40 minutes.”

The United States alone has provided $2.5 billion in military assistance that has included high-tech surveillance and communications equipment and drones. In November, the United States delivered about 88 tons of ammunition, part of a $60 million military aid package pledged by the Biden administration.

On Wednesday, Biden ruled out deploying U.S. forces to Ukraine to deter Russia. But there are more than 150 U.S. military advisers in Ukraine, a combination of U.S. Special Forces and National Guard, currently the Florida National Guard’s 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, according to two U.S. Defense Department officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive troop deployments. About a dozen other NATO countries also have military advisers in Ukraine now, the officials said.

The Biden administration has continued to supply them, delivering a new cache of missiles in October. John F. Kirby, a Pentagon spokesperson, said Wednesday that there were no conditions or restrictions placed on the Javelins, except that the Ukrainian forces use them “responsibly” and “in self-defence.”

“They need to decide, either we’re allies as they declare — and in that case allies help one another — or they need to say that this is not exactly the case,” said Budanov, the military intelligence chief. “If the civilized world wants to avoid catastrophe — and this will be a catastrophe for everyone — we need military technical support now, not tomorrow, not the day after tomorrow, not in year. Now.”

Ukraine Commanders Say a Russian Invasion Would Overwhelm Them - The New York Times

The Ukraine head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, states that although the western leaders have sent weapons and "military advisers", banned under the UNSC Minsk agreement unanimously adopted a resolution, by the weapon suppliers, we need more.

Unanimously Adopting Resolution 2202 (2015), Security Council Calls on Parties to Implement Accords Aimed at Peaceful Settlement in Eastern Ukraine

Unanimously Adopting Resolution 2202 (2015), Security Council Calls on Parties to Implement Accords Aimed at Peaceful Settlement in Eastern Ukraine | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases


He and foreign experts suggest Ukraine forces will be "neutralised" within 30 minutes to 40 minutes.

Unfortunately, they are being hung out to dry.

[OhOh]

Spectre of war is haunting Europe

Posted on December 17, 2021 by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR


"A fateful week is ending today for international security with the Russian Foreign Ministry releasing the two documents on security guarantees that Moscow had proposed to Washington as the basis for discussions to ease the tensions over NATO’s eastward expansion and to cease the alliance’s deployments close to Russia’s borders, including in Ukraine.

Out of the two documents, one is a draft treaty with the US which contains the following six provisions:

• Russia and the US shall not use the territory of other countries to prepare or conduct attacks against the other;
• Neither party shall deploy short- or intermediate-range missiles abroad or in areas where these weapons could reach targets inside the other’s territory;
• The US shall not open military bases in the post-Soviet countries that are not already NATO members, use their military infrastructure, or develop military cooperation with these states;
  
• Neither party shall deploy nuclear weapons abroad, and any such weapons already deployed must be returned. Both parties shall eliminate any infrastructure for deploying nuclear weapons outside their own territories;
  
• Neither party shall conduct military exercises with scenarios involving the use of nuclear weapons; and,
• Neither party shall train military or civilian personnel from non-nuclear countries to use nuclear weapons.
  

The second document is in the nature of a multilateral agreement with the member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). It also contains 6 provisions, which are:

• NATO shall not expand further east and must commit to excluding Ukrainian membership;
  
• NATO shall not deploy additional forces or arms outside the borders of its members as of May 1997 (before the alliance started admitting Eastern European countries);
• NATO shall not conduct any military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, or Central Asia;
  
• Russia and NATO shall not deploy short- or intermediate-range missiles within range of each other’s territories;
  
• All parties shall refrain from conducting military actions above the brigade level which shall be confined to a border zone to be mutually agreed upon; and,
• Neither party shall regard the other as an adversary or create threats to the other, and all parties shall commit to settling disputes peacefully, refraining from the use of force.
  

Russia’s proposals are true to its stated position spelt out in great detail and repeatedly in the recent months seeking security guarantees from the West against the backdrop of larges scale military deployments by the NATO countries in the countries of Central Europe and the Baltic states in the recent years, and, secondly, amidst the growing signs that NATO is preparing further eastward expansion that may include Ukraine, Georgia and Black Sea.

The latter part is crucial for Russia’s security as NATO (read the US) is almost certain to deploy nuclear missiles in Ukraine and Georgia, which would give it decisive tactical advantage to take Russia by surprise by launching a nuclear attack (since the flight time will be extremely short and Russia’s reaction time becomes correspondingly shortened, and, secondly, the tactical missiles of intermediate range would be in a position to hit deep inside Russian territory.

It was a foregone conclusion that the US will never agree to a security treaty of the kind Russia has proposed, because the NATO expansion — in contravention of the assurances given to Mikhail Gorbachev at the time of German unification that the alliance would not expand “an inch” beyond the Cold War era level in the late 1980s — is a long-term US strategy to gain unilateral advantage over Russia and tilt the global strategic balance in favour of the West, which would put Moscow on the defensive in its foreign and security policies.

In sum, the Western strategy is to dictate to Russia from a position of strength. Moscow has been protesting. But the NATO and the US chose to ignore Russia’s protests and kept expanding in stages since 1997. Today, an intolerable situation has arisen for Russia as the NATO forces are virtually at its gates. The developing situation is reminiscent of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis when Washington threatened to militarily stop Soviet missile deployments in Cuba.

The Biden administration’s strategy is to first weaken Russia’s global reach and strategic capability and thereupon tackle the challenge of China’s rise. The Biden Administration is taking a gambit that China will remain neutral in the upcoming confrontation between the West and Russia. But President Xi Jinping’s initiative to hold a virtual meeting with President Putin on Wednesday has signalled that Beijing is backing Russia.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin’s remarks in Beijing today point in such a direction. Interestingly, Ambassador Wang was responding to a pointed question from the Tass news agency. The relevant extracts are reproduced below:

TASS:

“In his virtual meeting with Russian President Putin, President Xi Jinping said China will continue to carry out flexible and diverse cooperation with Russia and other member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization to safeguard security and stability in the region. What challenges are China and Russia facing in this aspect? What can China and Russia do to safeguard regional security?”

Wang Wenbin:

“On December 15, President Xi Jinping had a virtual meeting with Russian President Putin. The two head of states had an in-depth exchange of views on core and major issues of common concerns including safeguarding regional security, and achieved new, important consensus.

“The world is witnessing the combined forces of changes and a pandemic both unseen in a century against the backdrop of complex and profound changes in international and regional landscape. We believe that China and Russia, two permanent members of the UN Security Council, take on important mission in defending regional peace and stability and promoting development and revitalization of all countries. For some time, certain countries have been drawing ideological lines, building new military blocs and stoking regional tensions, which have all brought grave threats and challenges to regional peace and stability and global strategic stability. China and Russia firmly reject this. We will continue to follow the two leaders’ consensus, take up responsibility, unite all forces that love peace and support peace, and make active contribution to realizing sustained, universal and common security in the region and the wider world.”

The release of the two documents in Moscow earlier today implies that Moscow is under no illusions that the US strategy is about cornering Russia and browbeat it on the global stage.
A grave crisis is developing in international security, since from this point, Moscow’s options are narrowing down to“coercive diplomacy” in the pursuit of its security needs. In sum, there is real danger of military confrontation with the NATO powers, since the US, Britain, France, etc. have already deployed special forces on Ukrainian soil, which will act as “trip wires”.

In a series of highly provocative remarks on Thursday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has asserted the alliance’s prerogative to intervene in Ukraine and bluntly rejected Moscow’s notions that it could have a say on the alliance’s future expansion plans.

Stoltenberg spoke with the prior approval of the Biden Administration.

Moscow’s decisions to release the security documents has come a day later.

The White House spokesperson Jen Psaki has since reacted, virtually endorsing Stoltenberg’s tough line"

https://www.indianpunchline.com/spectre-of-war-is-haunting-europe/

One reply.

Press Gaggle by Press Secretary Jen Psaki En Route Orangeburg, SC

December 17, 2021 • Press Briefings


"Q Jen, let me ask you about one other topic. So, Russia, they actually put out a list of the various demands that they have regarding Ukraine. You know, they’re repeating some of the things that you guys have already rejected, including, you know, restrictions on Ukraine eventually joining NATO, but they say that they’re ready to talk about their list of demands as soon as Saturday. What’s your reaction to that?
MS. PSAKI: Well, we have seen the Russian proposals. We’re discussing them with our European allies and partners.

The North Atlantic Council statement yesterday underscored that any dialogue with Russia would have to proceed on the basis of reciprocity; address NATO’s concerns about Russia’s continued dangerous and threatening behavior; be based on the core principles and foundational documents of European security; and take place in consultation with NATO’s European partners.

As you know, earlier this week, Assistant Secretary Donfried met with NATO Allies in Brussels, and National Security Advisor Sullivan spoke with his counterparts from B9 eastern flank allies about these and other issues.

I will note that there will be no talks on European security without European allies and partners. We will not compromise the key principles on which European security is built, including that all countries have the right to decide their own future and foreign policy free from the outside interference.

So, we’ve also — and finally, the last thing I would note, Trevor, is that we’ve managed to engage with Russia over strategic concerns for decades. There’s decades of precedent here and having these conversations through a range of formats: during the height of the Cold War and in the post-Cold war era through the NATO-Russia Council, the OSCE, and other mechanisms. There’s no reason we can’t do that moving forward to reduce instability. But we’re going to do that in partnership and coordination with our European allies and partners.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-...orangeburg-sc/

[HermantheGerman]

Today Russia creates enemies regardless of losses in order to win allies in a “ghetto of unpopularity”. Putin will become the “deus ex machina” for autocrats like Maduro and Lukashenko.

Oxana Schmies: NATO’s Enlargement and Russia. A Strategic Challenge in the Past and Future.

[OhOh]

^

From your source:

"Moscow seeks to justify this behavior by referring to an alleged threat from NATO (1.) and the Alliance’s eastward enlargement.(2.)"

Clarification, for your education.

1. The Russian citizens in eastern Ukraine are being attacked by the Ukrainian army and air force. With illegally supplied NATO counties weapons, training and military assistance, daily.

Disobeying the UNSC 2202 (2015), which was adopted unanimously at the UNSC.

Unanimously Adopting Resolution 2202 (2015), Security Council Calls on Parties to Implement Accords Aimed at Peaceful Settlement in Eastern Ukraine

Unanimously Adopting Resolution 2202 (2015), Security Council Calls on Parties to Implement Accords Aimed at Peaceful Settlement in Eastern Ukraine | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases

2. NATO has been moving eastward since the reunification of Germany.

Enlargement of NATO

Enlargement of NATO - Wikipedia

[bsnub]

I see OhDoh is posting up the usual crap here.

He and foreign experts suggest Ukraine forces will be "neutralised" within 30 minutes to 40 minutes.

That didn't happen the last time the Russians invaded Ukraine, and the fact is that the Ukrainians are far better equipped and trained now than back then. They will lose, but they will give Russia a nasty black eye before they do. The comment is not surprising coming from you OhDoh and as usual it is complete horseshit.

[sabang]

The comment did not come from hooh, It came from-

Robert Lee, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran and PhD candidate at King’s College in London, who is a Russian military expert.
“If Russia really wants to unleash its conventional capabilities, they could inflict massive damage in a very short period of time,” Lee said. “They can devastate the Ukrainian military in the east really quickly, within the first 30-40 minutes.”

[NamPikToot]

When are you suggesting oil and gas will no longer be needed, for many reasons, 20, 50 .... years?

I'm suggesting that with climate change commitments made by its current customers, Russia will be facing a significant reduction in demand and that will be in the next 10 years. The question remains, what will Russia do to replace the lost revenue or do you think they can return to the days of dividing loaves and fishes to feed those whos day it is to queue up for rations.

[bsnub]

“If Russia really wants to unleash its conventional capabilities, they could inflict massive damage in a very short period of time,” Lee said. “They can devastate the Ukrainian military in the east really quickly, within the first 30-40 minutes.”

With artillery and katyusha rockets, sure, but he was talking about the Ukrainian army that is in the EAST. The bulk of the military is not there, especially the tank brigades.

[sabang]

Anyway, the Russian army & proxies controls the security situation in Donetsk- and out of sheer mercy & compassion is not gonna be bothered mopping up those poor, wet boys in those silly trenches.

Lets see if anything comes diplomatically- but otherwise it's just a continuation of the same. Donetsk people to all intents and purposes are living as if they are in Russia, spending rubles, and with no access to or interest in neo-Ukraine. It might continue like this for many years- just like Turkish Cyprus, Taiwan etc.

[bsnub]

out of sheer mercy & compassion is not gonna be bothered mopping up those poor, wet boys in those silly trenches.

They are not so poor and wet anymore, nor are trenches silly, and both sides have them. These men are now seasoned combat veterans and nothing like they were back in 2014 as the two sides have not stopped fighting on the front lines.

[OhOh]

that will be in the next 10 years

Maybe, maybe not.

However, there are more uses to oil and gas than just creating electricity and heating houses, for example fertilizers, chemicals, plastics ....

However.

The Nagastani National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan has stated

Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, December 7, 2021

December 07, 2021

Press Briefings

James S. Brady Press Briefing Room

3:03 P.M. EST

"MR. SULLIVAN: Thanks, Jen, and good to see everybody here today. As you all know, President Biden held a secure video call today with President Putin. The call covered a range of issues, but the main topic was Ukraine.

President Biden was direct and straightforward with President Putin, as he always is. He reiterated America’s support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

He told President Putin directly that if Russia further invades Ukraine, the United States and our European allies would respond with strong economic measures. We would provide additional defensive materiel to the Ukrainians above and beyond that which we are already providing. And we would fortify our NATO Allies on the eastern flank with additional capabilities in response to such an escalation.

He also told President Putin there’s another option: de-escalation and diplomacy.

The United States and our European allies would engage in a discussion that covers larger strategic issues, including our strategic concerns with Russia and Russia’s strategic concerns.
We managed to do this at the height of the Cold War, and we developed mechanisms to help reduce instability and increase transparency.

We’ve done this in the post-Cold War era through the NATO-Russia Council, the OSCE, and other mechanisms. There’s no reason we can’t do that forward — going forward, provided that we are operating in a context of de-escalation rather than escalation.
The United States, as we have been for some time, is also prepared to support efforts to advance the Minsk Agreement in support of the Normandy Format. This could include a ceasefire and confidence-building measures that helps drive the process forward. "

Access Denied

Political negotiations have publicly been announced.

Jaw, Jaw, not War, War has been initiated due to THE LORD's proposal.