Ukraine war mega thread

[OhOh]

Two articles from the same person.

One from the day prior to the the meeting between Russia and NaGastan.

The other from today, subsequent to the meeting, where he is reviewing some media reports.

What his status/knowledge of regarding Russia or NaGastan is I have no idea.

The changes in the reported accusations and responses by NaGastani government and media sources are quite obvious.

Biden has set the mousetrap: what mouse will he catch?

gilbertdoctorow Uncategorized December 7, 2021 4 Minutes

"Today the “international community” is waiting impatiently for the start of the Biden-Putin video conference which is scheduled to begin at 18.00 Moscow time, 10.00 AM Washington time. While the proceedings will be closed to the public, the opening salutations will be aired and much will be made by our pundits of the body language of the two leaders. Every minute that the two men spend together will be weighed by our television and press analysts for what that says about the substance of the talks. Then there will be the press conferences of the two presidents immediately after the video conference, providing still more of a feast for the journalists and commentators.

In the event we are awaiting, all attention will be directed to one man, Vladimir Putin, to see if he flinches before the threats of dire economic sanctions that Biden has prepared with the clear backing of Congressional hawks and with alleged backing of the European allies should the Russians do what Washington says they are planning, namely invade Ukraine.. The sanctions list that has been released to the public includes cut-off from the international settlements body SWIFT and halting the convertibility of the ruble into dollars, euros or pounds. Such measures would be unprecedented in the post-Cold War period and, if the Russians had not long rehearsed their own devastating response for the West, would normally constitute a casus belli.

In short, Biden and his associates are surely congratulating themselves on the way they have set the mousetrap for Putin, who will be damned if he does invade Ukraine and damned if he doesn’t when the Kiev forces retake the Donbass. Should Putin choose not to invade, for whatever reason, with or without a Ukrainian march on Donbass, then Biden can claim that his standing up to the Autocrat worked, and he will potentially raise his domestic standing with the American electorate as defender of the U.S.-led world order. This, by the way, is one scenario which I failed to identify in my earlier writings on the U.S –Russian confrontation over Ukraine. How well a zero sum scenario will actually play with the Republicans and Democratic hawks remains to be seen.

Vladimir Putin will come to the conference in a self-confident mood. His blitz trip down to India yesterday and talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi fully validated Russian foreign policy at the global level. Their meeting ended in re-confirmation of the special strategic relationship that India and Russia have enjoyed now for decades, which has survived the pressures arising from the fast development of an informal but deep Russian alliance with China, India’s greatest adversary of the moment. Indeed, Modi is proceeding with implementation of the S-400 contract with Russia in the face of threatened sanctions from ….the USA, which has been actively courting India from the time of the Trump administration.

Moreover, notwithstanding Putin’s general caution in exercising the country’s military might, no one should doubt for a moment his choice when faced with what the Russian leadership and political classes perceive as an existential threat from U.S. and NATO forces in Ukraine. Kiev’s retaking Donbass with U.S. help would amount to such a threat.

And we should keep in mind that the kind of sanctions now being mentioned by the Americans have been discussed for several years. Together with China, Russia has prepared work-around solutions to manage its affairs whatever sanctions are thrown up by Washington.

Of course, there is the real question of whether the cut-off from SWIFT and scuttling of ruble convertibility in their currencies is truly enforceable on the European allies, whatever Biden may have wanted to hear from them in the run-up to today’s video conference.

If, as a direct consequence, the Russians cannot be paid for their gas deliveries to Europe, which amount to 40% of total European imports, 30% of actual consumption today ,then they will have contractual basis for stopping those deliveries. It is inconceivable that even the American vassals who run Europe can withstand the rebellion of business and general public domestically when the lights go out just to please Mr. Biden and play America’s political games. Now, of all times, as winter is setting in and gas reserves on European territory are low!

Reporting in the Financial Times and other major media on the response of NATO allies to the salesman’s work of Mr. Blinken and the Pentagon generals over the past couple of weeks has avoided these fundamental questions. We hear only that the Europeans, including Germany, were finally persuaded by American intelligence that the Russians are preparing for an invasion of Ukraine. We have not heard how these countries will likely respond to such an invasion if it takes place. Will they not investigate under what conditions it takes place, that is to say, who actually starts the war, Ukraine by overrunning Donbass or Russia by unprovoked aggression. Under a similar scenario in Georgia in 2008, Europe did its own investigation on the ground to assess responsibility, led by then French President Nicolas Sarkozy. He came back with the conviction that the Georgians were to blame and no sanctions on Russia followed.

Finally, no survey of the dynamics of a European follow-through on the sanctions threat can avoid dealing with the question of how the new German government will respond. The three party coalition formed by SPD leader Olaf Scholz was assembled over the heads of the German electorate, like the other undemocratic coalitions that rule much of Continental Europe today. Formulation of policies, programs and distribution of ministerial portfolios among the three parties was the result of horse-trading between them. The result is quite fragile if put to the test, and imposition of draconian sanctions on Russia would be just such a test. It is inconceivable that the business friendly Free Democrats will support Scholz if one of his first acts in power would be to destroy the German economy by depriving industry of gas supplies and leaving the general population to spend their pending lockdown freezing in unheated homes.

So, who is left for Mr. Biden to catch in his mousetrap? One person only: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Will he be sufficiently stupid to spring the trap on himself, possibly fatally, by risking a war with Russia that everyone knows he cannot win if Mr. Putin does not hold back. Even this B Grade actor cannot be that dumb."
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2021

Biden has set the mousetrap: what mouse will he catch? – Gilbert Doctorow

The second:

Biden-Putin Summit: who won the match of wills?

gilbertdoctorow December 8, 2021

"It is now the morning after the widely anticipated video conference tête-à-tête between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and it is time to put our Kremlinology skills to work. By that I mean to say there is very little today in the public domain to provide clear answers to what may have been achieved, or to put it more brashly, who won the match of wills. We must rely on small hints that we can tweak out from mainstream media, which has, of course, been hand fed by Washington.

First, reading The New York Times and the Financial Times today we see that the bluster coming from Washington in the run-up to the contest has been deflated and something closer to the reality of U.S. leverage over Russia or lack of it is coming through. I will not go beyond these two leading newspapers of the USA and the United Kingdom, because a brief perusal of Continental papers like Le Soir in Belgium, Le Figaro in France and the Frankfurter Allgemeine in Germany shows that coverage of the Biden-Putin summit is negligible. That relative disinterest in and of itself also counts as deflating the inflammatory Biden Administration bluster which came before.

As regards my two mainstream flagships, I note the subtle change in numbers. A couple of weeks ago, I read that the Russians had 250,000 troops moved south to the Ukrainian border region. A week ago, it appeared there were 150,000 but many more could be brought in. Today I read that the Russians have 70,000 troops standing by in the region adjoining the border with Ukraine.

Yesterday we read that the US had agreed with its European allies on a set of crippling economic sanctions to impose on Russia if it invaded Ukraine. Today’s NYT tells us that a Russian invasion “could end Russia’s hopes of completing the Nord Stream II pipeline to Europe.” But that has been at the top of the U.S. agenda for the last five years or more, and it is still placed in the conditional tense. The message is even more diluted in the FT this morning: “The U.S. is putting pressure on Germany to block Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as part of a package of sanctions that would be implemented in the event of Vladimir Putin invading Ukraine.”

There is hardly mention of the cut-off from SWIFT and halt to convertibility of the ruble into pounds, euros and dollars which had been in the threat list given to the press by Russia-hater in residence at the State Department, Victoria Nuland. Is it any wonder, then, that the Russian stock market this morning did not react at all to US threats of kicking Russia out of the world financial system and was in positive territory at the open.

From the brief highlights of the meeting released to the media by the Kremlin, we learn that both presidents expressed satisfaction with the meetings of their delegations over cyber security which followed from their face to face summit in Geneva in June. We also are told that some small progress was made addressing the reduction of the respective diplomatic presence in both countries to crippling levels: as a first step, the Americans are granting the Russians access to the diplomatic properties that were seized at the end of the Obama presidency and start of the Trump presidency in violation of international law. In the context of a virtual meeting set up in great haste for the ostensible purpose of bullying Russia into abandoning its alleged plans to invade Ukraine in the coming two months, these little signs of “business back to normal” put in question the depth of the crisis being addressed.

Finally, I note that today Biden has reversed course on his coziness with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Before the video summit, Zelensky had been led to believe that he would hear from the American president immediately afterwards. Now, in what is clearly a humiliating put-down, Zelensky has been told to await a call from Biden on Thursday, that is after the American President has conferred with his West European allies.

However tentative all the above remarks may be, it is a safe guess that there will now be a war between Russia and Ukraine only if Kiev launches a military assault on the Russian backed rebel provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk. It is now crystal clear that no Western military aid will come to save the necks of the Ukrainians when the Russians move in, as they will definitely do to save their Dobass brethren, many of whom are Russian Federation passport holders. And assuming that Zelensky has any sense of self-preservation and desire to enjoy the millions he has surely amassed during his brief time in office, he would likely be on the first private jet out to Israel or wherever, should his generals march on Donbas under instructions from the Right Sector and neo-Nazi radicals who have never been properly stripped of power.

That being said, the avoidance of war tomorrow does not mean the problem of U.S.-Ukraine-Russian relations has been solved in any way. Vladimir Putin is not one to kick the can down the road. It will be solved on his watch before 2024. But having shouted “wolf” once, as it did in the days leading up to this summit, Washington will be ever less able to rally Europe to its side in the future over the supposed Russian menace."
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2021

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2021/12/...atch-of-wills/

[OhOh]

Although not strictly on the tread topic, one of the items/sanctions threatened by NaGastan, expulsion from SWIFT, may be already nullified as illustrated in this article regarding the Russian/India presidents meeting, from the day prior to this topic.

Russia, India abandon US dollar in mutual settlements

• By Al Mayadeen
• Source: Agencies
• 7 Dec 09:19

Russia and India have agreed to ditch the dollar as a means of mutual settlements, as Washington continues to impose sanctions on Moscow.

Russia, India abandon US dollar in mutual settlements | Al Mayadeen English

[harrybarracuda]

What a fucking brilliant idea. Stoke up the tension between two nuclear powers run by fucking idiots.

[russellsimpson]

^ ^Very informative articles Oh Oh. Thanks for sharing.

The ball is back in Zelensky's court.

Will he will or will he won't? The shit show continues.

[helge]

i still think making yourself dependant upon Russia for energy supply was a singular act of madness on the Germans part

Poland is constructing a pipeline through my neighborhood right now.

They are paying half the bill. For some reason we are paying a huge sum too.

For 'strategic' purposes.

Nah; we have some gas of our own, which will be phased out in our "greener" soon to be future.

The pipeline, Baltic Pipe, is insurance against russian blackmail towards Middle Europe.


We should go "ukranian" and tap in to the stuff......just to piss off the norwegians

[sabang]

I'm pleased Zelensky is enjoying continued success in his comedic career anyway. He is obviously a very funny guy.

[panama hat]

^ you seem to have anger issues. Look you don't reside in the Reich so it doesn't affect you, calm down

You seem to have this fascination with the Third Reich, when you show yourself to be a fucking idiot again. Perhaps you should come to terms with the fact that it's been over for a while and isn't the 'zinger' that you think is.

NPT/strglshit/malmó - 'There are 1 million green lizard people in the UK'
Everyone - prove it
NPT/strglshit/malmó - I can't because the government has placed a gag order on this info.

Yea, you're a fucking idiot who has overtaken chico in this title.

Hedging is usually to counteract unanticipated prices rises, not a complete loss of supply.

True, except the issue isn't price rises, it's loss of supply which necessitates agreements to fill this from other sources.

[sabang]

Oh you can actually exercise long Call contracts to guaranty supply PH. Not usually recommended though.

[panama hat]

Oh you can actually exercise long Call contracts to guaranty supply PH. Not usually recommended though.

Right. Putin might bully Ukraine but doing the same to Germany/Europe in general would mean the end of his days - no money = no spending = poverty. Russia is too reliant on oil and gas exports to do so something rash and large. Putin may be many things, but dumb isn't one of them.

[NamPikToot]

Russia Ukraine: Sending US troops not on table - Biden

US President Joe Biden has said that putting American troops on the ground in Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion is "not on the table".

But Mr Biden warned of severe consequences if Russia did invade.

He was speaking a day after two hours of talks by video link with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The virtual summit was aimed at reducing tensions in the region after a major Russian troop build-up along Ukraine's eastern border.

Russia has accused Ukraine of provocation, and sought guarantees against eastward Nato expansion and deployment of weapons close to Russia.

Ukrainian authorities have said Moscow could be planning a military offensive at the end of January, although US officials say it is not yet clear whether President Putin has made a decision.

Speaking on Wednesday, Mr Putin refused to say whether he would order troops into Ukraine. But he said he could not sit back while the military alliance moved close to Russia.

Mr Biden said he had made it clear to Mr Putin during Tuesday's meeting that there would be "economic consequences like none he's ever seen".

He was confident that the Russian leader got the message, he added.

Putin-Biden talks: What next for Ukraine?

But when asked about possible military action, Mr Biden said the US's moral and legal obligations to its Nato allies in the region did not extend to Ukraine, who is not a member of the 30-member organisation.

"The idea that the US is going to unilaterally use force to confront Russia invading Ukraine is not on the cards right now," he said.

The US president said he hoped high-level meetings with Russia and at least four major Nato allies to discuss Russia's concerns would be announced by Friday.

The US has not specified what economic consequences it has in mind, but on Tuesday National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Nord Stream 2 - a new gas pipeline from Russia to Germany bypassing Ukraine which is not yet in operation - provided "leverage" for the US and its allies.

Other possible measures include restrictions on Russia's banks converting roubles into foreign currencies, or even disconnecting Russia from the Swift global financial payment system, reports say.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59582013

[sabang]

I basically think he had to say that to rein in the mouthy, troublemaking comedian in chief- but it was always the truth, unless the US has gone totally off the rails. I daresay the hawkish Nato/ spook types won't like it though. And no, Putin will not take it as a green light to invade. Jeez, calm down.

[russellsimpson]

Un-bloody believable. Nothing happening here folks.

[NamPikToot]

but it was always the truth, unless the US has gone totally off the rails.

of course, no point in ratcheting up the rhetoric to Defcon 4 as yet, its Putins call - lets see if he has the balls to follow through on his posturing. I doubt it.

And no, Putin will not take it as a green light to invade. Jeez, calm down.

who's not calm?

[NamPikToot]

Nord Stream 2 - a new gas pipeline from Russia to Germany bypassing Ukraine which is not yet in operation - provided "leverage" for the US and its allies.

As i have said already - Germany through tying itself to Russia has made itself a pawn in this game.

[panama hat]

As i have said already - Germany through tying itself to Russia has made itself a pawn in this game.

As I've responded - you're a fucking moron who can't back up his pitiful cries for attention. Now Germany is a 'pawn' - I'm sure you can explain to us how and then respond by saying the details are confidential again.

I'd suggest you an chico start a thread about pudding.

[NamPikToot]

^ have your opinion which usually contains quite a lot of F words and i have mine - now tootle off and pull some wings off butterflies or whatever you do between interesting pescatarian meals

[panama hat]

have your opinion which usually contains quite a lot of F words and i have mine

Usually when adults discuss something they use facts, something which you can't do . . . you're a fucking idiot who can't hold his own in a discussion yet tries to emulate chico in trying.

Your meals???? Oh yes, klarse act, you are.


Now, try to use some facts . . . try.

[NamPikToot]

Usually when adults discuss something they use facts, something which you can't do . . . you're a fucking idiot who can't hold his own in a discussion yet tries to emulate chico in trying.

Look you obsessive loon i posted an article which describes how Germany and the EU is tied to Russian fossil fuels, if it doesn't scratch your itch, which it clearly doesn't then i can't help you; although judging by your general demeanour on here and other threads i doubt even a professional could help you, gene resequencing could have helped at birth .......

[OhOh]

One NaGastani threat is to cut off Russia's ability to trade, by disabling Russia's ability to receive US$ for payment of deivered goods.

How does Victoria Nuland, an American diplomat currently serving as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, plan to pay for the import of oil from Russia in that scenario?

It may be the end of the Petrodollar if it happens.

[panama hat]

That neither denotes 'being a pawn' nor being 'dependent' . . . don't get me wrong, it's excellent that you posted an article as it's an improvement to your usual verbal diarrhoea . . . now all you need to do is get away from your sophomoric idiocy as your cultural bias determines this idiocy . . . to be seen by your 'French and German cvnts' at the IOC . . . just that, nothing else.

You seem disproportionately upset by receiving the same verbiage that you deal out.

As Harry is quite fond of saying . . . 'you're a

fucking idiot

Try this:

Contextualizing Putin's "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians"

August 2, 2021

Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent essay, "On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians," which was published on the Kremlin's website in Russian, English and Ukrainian, elaborates on his frequently stated assertion that Ukrainians and Russians are "one people." In what Anne Applebaum called “essentially a call to arms," Putin posits that Ukraine can only be sovereign in partnership with Russia, doesn't need the Donbas and nullified its claims on Crimea with its declaration of independence from the Soviet Union, and has been weakened by the West's efforts to undermine the unity of the Slavs.

Contextualizing Putin's "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians" | Ukrainian Research Institute at Harvard University

This is equally interesting to explain Putin's 'obsession':

Putin and the people around him are not ideologically driven doctrinaires. They use ideology to the degree that it can support great power ambitions and their vision of Russia’s role in the world. They jumped on the bandwagon of rising Russian nationalism, seeing in it an important tool to strengthen the regime both at home and abroad.
Ukraine became a polygon where the strength of Russian nationalism as a foreign policy was tested for the first time. The Baltic states have a big Russian-speaking minority where the "New Russia" card can be played if the circumstances are right.

Or you can just continue your way and say 'Spein iz goin to send a billions soldjas.'

[NamPikToot]

There you go look you can almost post sensibly when you try, as for cultural bias well your continual chav and alcoholic drivel aimed at virtually every UK poster hardly marks you out as an exemplar

[panama hat]

your continual chav and alcoholic drivel aimed at virtually every UK poster hardly marks you out as an exemplar

Trying to create a group around you for protection and support because you're a mental weakling is adorable, but it's hardly 'every UK poster', not even 'UK poster' . . . just a handful of English posters - less than half a dozen . . . so, nice try.
Anyway . . .
Chavs are a reality. Chavs and alcohol generally go hand in hand. Chavs and infant brain damage are a given. Being a chav and being a

fucking idiot

are one and the same . . . ergo sum . . .




Move along, halfiwt.

[NamPikToot]

Russiaphobia


Russia Ukraine: Putin compares Donbas war zone to genocide

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been hardening his rhetoric over the situation in Ukraine, saying the war in the country's east looks like genocide.

Russian-backed rebels have been fighting Ukrainian troops there since 2014, and tensions have been growing as Russia amasses troops on the border.

Meanwhile US President Joe Biden discussed recent talks with Mr Putin in a call to his Ukrainian counterpart.

There are fears that Russia is planning to invade Ukraine, which Russia denies.

Tuesday's Biden-Putin video call was seen as an attempt to ease tensions.

Washington and its allies have warned the Kremlin of tough sanctions if it again attacks its neighbour.

Russia has accused Ukraine of provocation, and sought guarantees against eastward Nato expansion and deployment of weapons close to Russia.

Ukrainian authorities have said Moscow could be planning a military offensive at the end of January, although US officials say it is not yet clear whether President Putin has made a decision.

'Russophobia'

The Russian president's remarks on Thursday were aimed at addressing the issue of discrimination against Russian speakers beyond Russia's borders, many of whom live in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

He said that Russophobia was the first step towards genocide.

"We see and know what is happening in Donbas," he said, referring to the conflict zone. "It certainly looks like genocide."

Mr Biden briefed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a one-and-a-half-hour phone call on his conversation with Mr Putin two days ago.

The two leaders discussed "the security situation around Ukraine and the prospects of activating the peace settlement", a Ukrainian presidential statement said.

Mr Biden also spoke to leaders of Nato members close to Russia's borders.

Russian troop build-up: View from Ukraine front line

More than 90,000 Russian troops are believed to be massed near Ukraine's borders. The movement has strained already tense relations between Russia and the US.

A large part of the recent Russian military build-up is in Crimea, a Black Sea peninsula which Russia seized from Ukraine and then annexed in 2014.

Troops are also gathering near Donbas.

More than 14,000 people have lost their lives in seven years of conflict since Russian-backed forces seized large areas of Ukraine's east.


more: Russia Ukraine: Putin compares Donbas war zone to genocide - BBC News

[harrybarracuda]

Russiaphobia


Russia Ukraine: Putin compares Donbas war zone to genocide

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been hardening his rhetoric over the situation in Ukraine, saying the war in the country's east looks like genocide.

So basically he's admitting to genocide then. After all, he started the war.

[russellsimpson]

I hear this talk of self determination and democracy, and I agree- so lets walk the walk, not just talk the talk, and let the People decide- but I'm pretty sure you will find that is the last thing that both neo-Ukraine and the USA want.

Gotta agree with this.

The vote should be based on the wishes of the whole country of Ukraine not some russian migrant enclave.

I wouldn't argue with that.