Thread: Rubber trees 101

Originally Posted by ltnt

Actually, many police and military active in these areas at present.

No kidding- I drove back overnight from Pattaya to Ubon overnight a few days ago, as I had also done soon after the latest coup. Wasn't stopped or hindered once on that journey, great I thought- overnight is the way to go. This time, stopped ten times by roadblocks, no kidding. Only one request for baksheesh though, politely rebuffed by mrs sab.

^Ah yes, the five finger gratuity...not here yet, but certainly very polite.

Can the rubber situation get any worse, I thought not, but it may have.
My tappers, who used to work in the south, have said, if the price falls again, they all will be heading south together, palm oil jobs.

No tappers, few options, fingers crossed, that's as low as the price goes, have about 400 kilos of rice stored, but may have to think of other plans, like getting a job.

On the brighter side, some of these alleged commodity experts are starting to predict price increases next year, dawning on them that the big rubber surplus, may not really be a fact. Plus oil prices can not stay this low long, OPEC countries other then Saudi can not afford to lose that much revenue.

When the big boys place, it's the little guys that pay.
What a world, first they steal peoples private pensions, wipe out savings, move off shore laying off millions and we just take it.

Good to the next rubber sale, up to Buddha after that. Jim

James, it rubber tapping a specialist job? How long would it take to learn how to do it? Do you have any family members who could do it if your tappers head south?

Originally Posted by Neverna

James, it rubber tapping a specialist job? How long would it take to learn how to do it? Do you have any family members who could do it if your tappers head south?

You can learn the basics in a couple of days, but to be a skilled, fast tapper takes along time.
Family is a non goer, wife has 2 brothers, ones married to a girl who's family are rich by western standards, others a government boss.

Plenty of villagers who could tap, but they won't get off their ass for the money.
Local doctor has 200 rai of rubber and not one tapper left, problem is tappers have to do unpaid work, taking care of the plantation.
They need to earn good money from each tap to cover the unpaid days and months, dormant period, weeding, fertilizing etc.
Comes a point where the yearly income is less than a low paid full time job, husband wife team, skilled workers need to earn more than 600 Bt a day average over the year even for unpaid work.
!50,000 a year, guess we are at that point now, can't blame them, they've got to live.
Not dead in the water yet, but getting very close.
As said my trees are good producers, that's why they have stayed on so long, national and international out put will have plummeted.
Read somewhere that up to 50% of Indian plantations are idle or being under tapped.

OPEC's dumping oil, they will continue to keep the price down. The USA will cut back, but black market oil producers will tarnish any reduced oil production by the USA.

Remember, Russia is going tits up, so look for oil from them to flood the market place early next year. No compromise in sight.

People still tapping here Jim, but not getting rich.

Apparently they are getting the chainsaws ready in Rayong.

Originally Posted by ltnt

OPEC's dumping oil, they will continue to keep the price down. The USA will cut back, but black market oil producers will tarnish any reduced oil production by the USA.

Remember, Russia is going tits up, so look for oil from them to flood the market place early next year. No compromise in sight.

People still tapping here Jim, but not getting rich.

People who own family tapped plantations will tap, hour or 2 in the morning and they keep all the money.
Bigger plantations need workers, profits for owners and wages for workers, workers will work where the pay is best.
Believe there is some saying, 1 kilo of rubber needs to buy 1 kilo of rice, not looked into the correlation, but suppose it means a plantations rubber needs to be able to buy it's weight in rice. Tesco 40 Bt. a kilo for rice.

Russia has big problems, high costs of production, if it cost more to produce then you make, no win situation. Iran needs higher prices just to keep the country afloat, same for others.
Saudi may be calling the shots now, but some of their friends can't afford to follow for too long.

NR is all ready cheaper than SR, except in China, because of [illegal] government subsides.
Big billion dollar game, not only over rubber and oil, palm oil, cassava, other bio fuels will be hit.

Willing to bet, big oil isn't going to let profits fall for too long. ISIS could go into Saudi and the west could say, so said to bad.

Strange times, but not going to chop my trees down and plant rice just yet. Jim

Last few weeks.... constant sound of heavy equipment and chainsaws within a few k's of our farm..rubber trees..let's hope government comes through with all their promises for these guys.

Originally Posted by crepitas

Last few weeks.... constant sound of heavy equipment and chainsaws within a few k's of our farm..rubber trees..let's hope government comes through with all their promises for these guys.

What a Bummer Crepitas!, 6 years of their hopes that they could make a decent living for their labours and money in the future ,only to see it dashed by circumstances beyond their control ,ain't live a bastard at times?.

Looking at commodities USA price for rubber is .70.35 cents per pound. 1984 price was 34.65 cents per pound, and 2001 was 22.12 per pound. So apparently things have been a lot worse over time. 30 year chart available on:

Commodity Prices - Price Charts, Data, and News - IndexMundi

Bliss and luxury - had relatives visiting for the last fortnight, not switched a computer on in that time, downside - sleep deprivation.
Sold at auction yesterday, Udon Province, cup at 20.32 baht per kg. 12 bidders for the auction (more than normal), so money is still to be made. Apparently, lots of tappers given up, and plantations are either being tapped by owners and family or just stopped tapping. I've heard of 50/50 splits just to keep tappers on.
We'll keep on plodding on till end of January, leaf fall seems to have started early up here this year, production excellent due to the cooler nights, but we will suffer Feb onwards. May go back to the UK for a few months FFS.

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

Bliss and luxury - had relatives visiting for the last fortnight, not switched a computer on in that time, downside - sleep deprivation.
Sold at auction yesterday, Udon Province, cup at 20.32 baht per kg. 12 bidders for the auction (more than normal), so money is still to be made. Apparently, lots of tappers given up, and plantations are either being tapped by owners and family or just stopped tapping. I've heard of 50/50 splits just to keep tappers on.
We'll keep on plodding on till end of January, leaf fall seems to have started early up here this year, production excellent due to the cooler nights, but we will suffer Feb onwards. May go back to the UK for a few months FFS.

What's the betting, world outputs way down, price shoots up, just as my trees go dormant.
Jim

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

Bliss and luxury - had relatives visiting for the last fortnight, not switched a computer on in that time, downside - sleep deprivation.
Sold at auction yesterday, Udon Province, cup at 20.32 baht per kg. 12 bidders for the auction (more than normal), so money is still to be made. Apparently, lots of tappers given up, and plantations are either being tapped by owners and family or just stopped tapping. I've heard of 50/50 splits just to keep tappers on.
We'll keep on plodding on till end of January, leaf fall seems to have started early up here this year, production excellent due to the cooler nights, but we will suffer Feb onwards. May go back to the UK for a few months FFS.

What's the betting, world outputs way down, price shoots up, just as my trees go dormant.
Jim

Sods fucking law Jim ,Sods law .

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

Bliss and luxury - had relatives visiting for the last fortnight, not switched a computer on in that time, downside - sleep deprivation.
Sold at auction yesterday, Udon Province, cup at 20.32 baht per kg. 12 bidders for the auction (more than normal), so money is still to be made. Apparently, lots of tappers given up, and plantations are either being tapped by owners and family or just stopped tapping. I've heard of 50/50 splits just to keep tappers on.
We'll keep on plodding on till end of January, leaf fall seems to have started early up here this year, production excellent due to the cooler nights, but we will suffer Feb onwards. May go back to the UK for a few months FFS.

What's the betting, world outputs way down, price shoots up, just as my trees go dormant.
Jim

Would make sense to store some of it away then ..... if you can afford to.

Palexxxx, if I had money, my sheds would be full of sheet rubber now. There is going to be an acute shortage of it, no ones making it. You can't buy any, if there is none made. Jim

I wasn't talking about buying it. I was talking about making sheet (which I know you've done previously) and storing it away. What I meant by "if you can afford to" was that if you didn't need to sell all of what you produce to make ends meet.

Rubber Output From Top Growers Drops 1.2% in Jan-Nov.: ANRPC



Posted date : December 10, 2014 In Global rubber market news 0






Production from growers accounting for 93% of global supply falls to 9.97m mt in Jan.-Nov. period, according to Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.

* Output for 2014 seen dropping 7.6% to 10.32m mt, ANRPC says in monthly bulletin

* Exports -1.1% at 8.06m mt during first 11 months: ANRPC

* Top shipper Thailand’s exports +1.4% at 3.31m mt y/y

* Consumption in Jan.-Nov. estimated +4.8% y/y due to buying from China, India

(Source: Bloomberg)

Originally Posted by palexxxx

I wasn't talking about buying it. I was talking about making sheet (which I know you've done previously) and storing it away. What I meant by "if you can afford to" was that if you didn't need to sell all of what you produce to make ends meet.

Yeh, got you, problem is I have to buy my own rubber in away.
Tappers will want their share up front, plus extra for collecting the liquid and transporting etc.
Tappers won't make sheet under 70 Baht a kilo, so I would need to pay them at least 28 Baht a kilo, every kilo I made and kept would put me out of pocket, say 60 Baht.
Soon adds up and I don't have the money now, prices have been too low for too long, add the unknown factors, when and how much the price goes up

Thought about a bank loan against the factory/company, but it's a big gamble, one my kids may regret in years to come. So for now will sit it out and hope I'm not in OZ next year on welfare.

It's a numbers game, if I sidelined a few ton, could make an extra 60,000 Bt. maybe
To make real money you would want 100 ton plus, meaning an investment of around $200,000 US. You win, you get 50% return or more, lose and cleaning toilets for a living.

Jim

Originally Posted by jamescollister

may well be eating my cassava

Don't forget to dry it out and cook it Jim. Or may be not, depending on your mood.

Rubber farmers suppose to strike for 80 baht rubber price. NCPO says no way, let the market settle the price. About time. Stop digging the hole deeper for a change.

Planting soy beans now.

Rubber price will bounce back. It has to. Just depends on how long and how deep your pockets are in the mean time.

I prefer farming food. Prices come and go and some years are good and some aren't but we all gotta eat.

Originally Posted by MeMock

Originally Posted by jamescollister

look at small wheat farms in western countries. Biggest cattle farm in the world [Australia] went to the wall a few years ago.

Small wheat farmers in Australia are doing okay - weather permitting of course. I have been growing wheat for 5 years now and 4 out of those 5 years have seen decent returns.
Cattle farmers did it tough due to the complete balls up of the then Labor government and their knee jerk reaction to ban live exports for a while. Now that it is sorted and live exports to China are gearing up they are doing much better and if a few years time will be doing very well. Again, weather permitting of course.

Out of curiosity, MM....how many acres in wheat?

Hi Thaimeme,

I have three farms in the same district and each one is 300 acres (give or take a few). I rotate Wheat, Beans and Canola through the three farms.