Thread: Rubber trees 101

Commodity Market has a different view as Japan rubber quotes are off. Going negative.

Long ago an economist stated that the current market is a reflection of whats coming in the next 18 months. What do they know, huh!

25.02 baht per kg, cup at auction in Udon yesterday.

22.35 baht at auction today. Worst price in 4 years tapping up here. Also, as i see, 1st post in a fortnight on this thread.

Talking to a big grower last night at our local ,he said he sells at the front door after trying every other way, the price last Fri was 17 baht a kilo .

Bloomberg financial news Asia states lowest rubber prices in 5 years. Forecast long bottom, no end in sight.

To bad, but that's the reports from Japan rubber markets. Not looking good.

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

22.35 baht at auction today. Worst price in 4 years tapping up here. Also, as i see, 1st post in a fortnight on this thread.

Not good, we can live, but week to week only, come dormant period then the rains, will be a big problem.

Would go back to OZ to work the down period. but everyone's getting laid off there.
So will probably have to sit it out, the cassava crop will cover one month, then hello sticky rice and lao kow.

Don't understand it at all, India was forced to import 40,000 tons in Oct. everyone's stopping tapping there. Not seen any sheet here for over a month, Indonesia can't fill contracted orders, people can't get tappers, so plantations lay idle.

There is no surplus now, but the price is still down, must be more to it, worlds screwed or the market is being manipulated somehow.

Buddha will provide, live in hope. Jim

Lots of excess synthetic, crude prices at rock bottom.

Originally Posted by ltnt

Lots of excess synthetic, crude prices at rock bottom.

Just spoke to a German mate of mine on Skype who farms 40 rai about 6 klicks from the Cambodian border ,among other things he informed me they have stopped tapping ,OK for him I suppose as he sold his business in Germany last year for 50 million baht !.

Originally Posted by piwanoi

OK for him I suppose as he sold his business in Germany last year for 50 million baht

Should have kept it. Going to loose his shirt in rubber...I recently met an American fellow who bought 40 rai or paid for 40 rai and has a Thai national fully in charge of it. Planting what else, rubber trees. Poor decisions all the way around me thinks.

Originally Posted by ltnt

Lots of excess synthetic, crude prices at rock bottom.

That's a reason for lower rubber prices, but not the prices we are getting today.
If oil prices drop, rubber goes down yes, but prices have not followed oil as normal, if they did sheet would be around 70 Bt. not 45 Bt,
Wonder if China is running a game, under cut other synthetic rubber produces, drive them out of business, sign long term contracts with NR producers and corner the world market in both NR and SR.

As said, India a big tire producer can not get enough rubber, not a high wage economy and they are having problems competing.

All well beyond me, but there will be a shortage of high grade RSS 1,2 and 3 next year. What is made today, is for processing in 6 to 9 months and no ones making sheet.

Originally Posted by ltnt

Originally Posted by piwanoi

OK for him I suppose as he sold his business in Germany last year for 50 million baht

Should have kept it. Going to loose his shirt in rubber...I recently met an American fellow who bought 40 rai or paid for 40 rai and has a Thai national fully in charge of it. Planting what else, rubber trees. Poor decisions all the way around me thinks.

He had the rubber trees long before he sold his business, so is on "easy street " come what may

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by ltnt

Lots of excess synthetic, crude prices at rock bottom.

That's a reason for lower rubber prices, but not the prices we are getting today.
If oil prices drop, rubber goes down yes, but prices have not followed oil as normal, if they did sheet would be around 70 Bt. not 45 Bt,
Wonder if China is running a game, under cut other synthetic rubber produces, drive them out of business, sign long term contracts with NR producers and corner the world market in both NR and SR.

As said, India a big tire producer can not get enough rubber, not a high wage economy and they are having problems competing.

All well beyond me, but there will be a shortage of high grade RSS 1,2 and 3 next year. What is made today, is for processing in 6 to 9 months and no ones making sheet.

I may have been right about China, just out on the news.


Reuters) - The United States is set to slap duties on imports of tires from China after the Department of Commerce found on Monday the tires are produced using unfair government subsidies.
In a preliminary decision, Commerce set anti-subsidy duties of up to 81.29 percent on car and light truck tires after a complaint from U.S. trade unions.
The highest rate will apply to goods from Shandong Yongsheng Rubber Group Co. Cooper Kunshan Tire Co, a subsidiary of Cooper Tire & Rubber Company, will face duties of 12.50 percent and GITI Tire (Fujian) Co, a subsidiary of Giti Tire, duties of 17.69 percent.
Other Chinese producers have a preliminary rate of 15.69 percent, Commerce said. In 2013, imports of passenger vehicle and light truck tires from China were worth about $2.1 billion.
A final ruling on anti-subsidy duties by Commerce is due in April and by the International Trade Commission in May.
(Reporting by Krista Hughes; Editing by Tom Brown)

My place is a ghost town. No work at the big factories.

Interesting article , any comments? Jim, any one?How Tire Company Bridgestone Is Solving A Tricky Natural-Resource Issue | Fast Company | Business + Innovation

Originally Posted by piwanoi

Interesting article , any comments? Jim, any one?How Tire Company Bridgestone Is Solving A Tricky Natural-Resource Issue | Fast Company | Business + Innovation

Interesting read, no threat to tree rubber, they used to grow rubber in Florida, wages put a stop to that.
The 2 dollars a pound, $100 a barrel, just shows something is amiss, using that price setting, tire grade rubber should be around 100 Baht a kilo today. Take out shipping and processing cost etc dry cup should be twice the local price and high grade RSS over 70 Bt. local price.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by piwanoi

Interesting article , any comments? Jim, any one?How Tire Company Bridgestone Is Solving A Tricky Natural-Resource Issue | Fast Company | Business + Innovation

Interesting read, no threat to tree rubber, they used to grow rubber in Florida, wages put a stop to that.
The 2 dollars a pound, $100 a barrel, just shows something is amiss, using that price setting, tire grade rubber should be around 100 Baht a kilo today. Take out shipping and processing cost etc dry cup should be twice the local price and high grade RSS over 70 Bt. local price.

Yeah Jim ,some thing is amiss as you rightly remarked, but what ?any one out there ?

Originally Posted by piwanoi

,some thing is amiss as you rightly remarked, but what

Perhaps reports of rubber supplies are inaccurate, warehouses full of bulk rubber. Tire manufacturers over production, warehouses full to beyond capacity.
Oil prices falling below $70 a barrel, oversupply of synthetic stock.
Consumers pulling back in 4th quarter purchases.
EU and Asia economic downturn.
Russia Embargo.

Originally Posted by ltnt

Originally Posted by piwanoi

,some thing is amiss as you rightly remarked, but what

Perhaps reports of rubber supplies are inaccurate, warehouses full of bulk rubber. Tire manufacturers over production, warehouses full to beyond capacity.
Oil prices falling below $70 a barrel, oversupply of synthetic stock.
Consumers pulling back in 4th quarter purchases.
EU and Asia economic downturn.
Russia Embargo.

Yeah ,IMV a pretty good assessment, and one that I find myself nodding in agreement with

Reading this article would suggest that this present administration is stuck on the horns of a dilemma Thailand Halts Buying Crops as Junta Seeks Sales - Businessweek

^Yes, however, they continue to add fuel to the fire. Amazing double standards. Yingluck's regime was accused of fraud for the very same actions and subsequently removed by the current administrator's.

It appears that now the current admin are slowly removing obstacles by outing them and replacing them with their own cronies. Elections now forecast in 2016...if ever again. 50 billion Baht subsidy announced yesterday is only token amount required to quell unrest in the rural landscape.

Originally Posted by ltnt

^Yes, however, they continue to add fuel to the fire. Amazing double standards. Yingluck's regime was accused of fraud for the very same actions and subsequently removed by the current administrator's.

It appears that now the current admin are slowly removing obstacles by outing them and replacing them with their own cronies. Elections now forecast in 2016...if ever again. 50 billion Baht subsidy announced yesterday is only token amount required to quell unrest in the rural landscape.

Again I find myself nodding in agreement

Farmers in my location have completed their rice harvest now. Some sold as soon as harvested, while others are holding on waiting for higher prices.

Rubber trees are hit and miss on tapping and sales in the area. There's a broker nearby that opens for rubber sales every Thursday. From what I see not many sellers. I have no idea what prices are in this area.

As if you rubber farmers ain't having it rough enough ,and now this in todays BBC business section BBC News - Oil prices plunge after Opec meeting

Originally Posted by piwanoi

As if you rubber farmers ain't having it rough enough ,and now this in todays BBC business section BBC News - Oil prices plunge after Opec meeting

All very strange goings on, seems there is an investigation going on in China, traders in aluminium, copper and rubber have been fiddling the books.
Appears they have been borrowing money on bonded warehouse stock that doesn't exist.
Bloomberg says, maybe over 2 billion dollars worth of unsecured loans.

On the oil price, again something off, cost of producing, middle east has the lowest costs, but oil from shale and sand extraction is more then the sale price. Other costs vary, offshore etc.
Could OPEC be selling cheap, to put a stop to others producing or investing.
Read some where that fracking etc will made North America the energy producer of the world. No need for Mid east oil, Arabs would not be happy, back to camels and desert.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

her costs vary, offshore etc. Could OPEC be selling cheap, to put a stop to others producing or investing.

Actually OPEC is dumping oil trying to force the price down to push the US Fracking and shale industry out of profitable sales vs production levels. Same old story of oil tankers floating all over the globe full to the max keeping a false price level on crude when the reality is the world is awash in crude.

As for China and fake data. You can rely on that for now and all future China claims. I'm saying it again, don't buy China in any way, shape or form. The China bubble is going to burst, so don't be part of the fools investing in them.