Thread: Rubber trees 101

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

Just done this season's books. 4845 more kgs than the previous season, but 82,705 less baht ! Even more interesting or rather even more to piss me off,
season 2 we pulled in a gross of 575,800 baht from 12,584 kgs, this season (4) our gross was 513,914 baht from 20,556 kgs (over 20 metric tonnes)....

Not even going to bother totally up this seasons output or income, too depressing.
From memory November before last we broke the 5,000 kilos of RSS, this season no sheet at all.
Hand to mouth income only, selling our last lot today, off to Macro Saturday to stock up with food for the down time.

Things don't pick up will have no tappers after Song Kran, no fertilizer put down for end of season, not looking good.

Just reading about a co op going broke down south, no buyers and can't service their loans, won't be the last to go under.
Phoned the bank about the car loan, their good for 3 months, so it's sit back and see what happens.

Don't understand it at all, just seems to be no big buyers in the world market, but tires are still being used, no substitute for rubber, synthetic can only be a small percentage of tires or they fall apart.
Big picture stuff, as said 2009 repeat.

Best of luck to all you rubber guys, lets hope we are all smiling in 3 months. Jim

Thai rubber stockpiles entering the market and competing with increased production from Vietnam, Laos, Burma and Cambodia is not going to help. Fluctuating world markets will always screw the small producer which is why, inevitably, the agri-industrial combines get bigger as they buy out the smaller guy.

Let's hope you get a good deal from one of them.

I read somewhere the Thai government/ministries were trying to incentivise palm oil production here. A bit late I would have thought.

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

Thai rubber stockpiles entering the market and competing with increased production from Vietnam, Laos, Burma and Cambodia is not going to help. Fluctuating world markets will always screw the small producer which is why, inevitably, the agri-industrial combines get bigger as they buy out the smaller guy.

Let's hope you get a good deal from one of them.

I read somewhere the Thai government/ministries were trying to incentivise palm oil production here. A bit late I would have thought.

That's one of the strange things about all this, world rubber output is actually down, that big surplus never came to be.
Lots of factors, price stopped a lot of plantations tapping, workers laid down tools for better paid jobs, no fertilizer cut output and floods in Southern Thailand and Malaysia.
Most stopped making sheet, not economical to produce, so now there is underproduction, yet no speculators in the market.
It's as if buyers have just stopped buying on the futures market, Chinese have been caught out saying that large bonded reserves exist, seems the warehouse were empty, but on paper were full.

Worlds economic problems tied, to falling oil prices has just put a brake on confidence, no faith in the future of the markets.
All has to come to ahead sooner or later, as it won't just be the Greeks bailing out, no idea what will happen later this year, but the CIA prophecy project and the day after plan come to mind.

hrs ·
Natural rubber in trouble, Jan output lower 32%
India will face a serious supply crunch in case of natural rubber, in the short run as the latest updates on production indicates 32.6% drop during January, 2015.
This is the highest ever monthly decrease in recent years and as the lean season is on the anvil, the domestic market will be in deep trouble.
In other words, only alternative to the supply crunch, is import as demand - supply gap is over 300,000 tones at present, which may cross 400,000 tones by the end of March.
In January, the monthly output was 60,000 tones only as against 89,000 tones in January, 2014. Drop in production had a cumulative effect in this financial year as April, 2014 recorded 3.8% decrease only.
Stoppage of tapping in most of the plantations, across Kerala along with shifting to other crops are the main reasons for the steep fall in production. According to the present trend total annual output in 2014-15 will be confined to 650,000 tones only.
During 2013-14 total production was 844,000 tones and in the preceding financial year this was 913,700 tones. According to the earlier estimates of Rubber Board this fiscal's turn out should be 800,000 tones. But the actual figure is likely to be sharply lower at around 650,000 tones.
This situation makes India to depend more on imports as consumption increases every month. In January, 2015 consumption increased marginally (0.6%) at 84,000 tones. So in future India will face a serious problem in the case of natural rubber as plantations are on an abandoned stage in Kerala.
During April - January period of the current financial year import increased 14% at 359,857 tones as against 315,049 tones in the same period of last FY. Total import is likely to cross 400,000 tones this year, which will be the highest ever import to the country.
Total import in 2013-14 was 325,190 tones, as per Rubber Board data. India is likely to consume 1 million tones of natural rubber in this FY according to the current trends in production. This means over 40% of India's requirement is met through import which is an alarming situation as far as rubber growers concerned.
More dependence on import will naturally deepen the crisis in local trade and production. In the long run India may far behind Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia in the case of production, falling to fifth or sixth spot, experts said.

24 odd baht for cup @ auction yesterday. Allegedly. We were'nt there as we've stopped tapping.

Good times were had by all, now the price must be paid for excess production and overvaluation by government subsidy.

No it is a worldwide ressession , simple supply and demand, and the demand has dropped considerably.

Originally Posted by mykthemin

No it is a worldwide ressession , simple supply and demand, and the demand has dropped considerably.

Right, nothing to do with Thailand, subsides, or production rates, all down to a world recession.
Not matter how well world governments talk the up beat, were through the worse crap. oil, iron ore, copper aluminum, all commodities and jobs, incomes are down.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by mykthemin

No it is a worldwide ressession , simple supply and demand, and the demand has dropped considerably.

Right, nothing to do with Thailand, subsides, or production rates, all down to a world recession.
Not matter how well world governments talk the up beat, were through the worse crap. oil, iron ore, copper aluminum, all commodities and jobs, incomes are down.

Gotta agree with you Jim re doing any form of accounting or analysis re farming or personal finances..far too depressing.
Just returned from an exotic business holiday in balmy 3c weather in western Canada....stopping off in a Phuket resort for a few days R&R...all to a dried up dusty leafless farm..
Within days, sob story requests for “loans” from rellies.
Distant neighbor seems to think it a good time to start a frickin great fire burning bamboo.
Rubber price further down in the toilet, appliances breaking and need fixing or replacing at home, fish dead in my pretty pots because no one thought to actually refill the water lapped up by feral dogs.



Now 2.5 boxes of beer per week and christ knows the ciggy bill.


Never mind, where there is life there is hope…..outlook sunny and hot with chance of a depression.


Well this just maybe the year I get my long promised to me used 4x4 truck ...gotta a be a shit load of repo'd Vigos out there...

crepitas, at least you have beer, budget constraints mean I'm dry for the next 6 weeks.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

crepitas, at least you have beer, budget constraints mean I'm dry for the next 6 weeks.

Condolences Jim..come on down I will stand you as much as you can hold...lol

Re my Canada visit the best part..met my 7th month old granddaughter for the first time.

Seen it facebook.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Seen it facebook.

lol ....yup knew you would....still my angel..

Leafs are back on rubber....now....every baht helps.

Maybe get up there in late 2015..

regards
d

Just sitting around surfing the net and came across an article, Feb 19, by Clyde Russell Reuters on rubber.
Guy is allegedly some kind of commodities guru on SEA and India.

If he is a guru my dog is a genius, got nearly everything wrong, not predictions, but facts, even the rubber seasons wrong.

If big buyers listen to these so called experts, it's no wonder there's few buyers out there.
Jim

Originally Posted by crepitas

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Seen it facebook.

lol ....yup knew you would....still my angel..

Leafs are back on rubber....now....every baht helps.

Maybe get up there in late 2015..

regards
d

Will be awhile before we start tapping again, still have leaves, but no rubber.

Good thing about poverty and boredom, gets you thinking and acting, been on the net chasing a pension fund I paid into in the UK a long time ago.
Think I found it, if there is any money left, fingers crossed, might get a few Baht out of it. If not, I've aided in saving the UK bankers who stole it.

Come on up anytime, plenty of room and hopefully more if/when the FIL goes to prison.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by crepitas

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Seen it facebook.

lol ....yup knew you would....still my angel..

Leafs are back on rubber....now....every baht helps.

Maybe get up there in late 2015..

regards
d

Will be awhile before we start tapping again, still have leaves, but no rubber.

Good thing about poverty and boredom, gets you thinking and acting, been on the net chasing a pension fund I paid into in the UK a long time ago.
Think I found it, if there is any money left, fingers crossed, might get a few Baht out of it. If not, I've aided in saving the UK bankers who stole it.

Come on up anytime, plenty of room and hopefully more if/when the FIL goes to prison.

Lol ..my UK sister suggested I apply for UK pension..I left at 21 for South Africa....probably be about one and six a month.
So rubber farmers how is life..came back from Canada beginning of Feb to rock hard ground and leafless trees .
No change except we have leafs and cutting continues. Average net about 5kbt every 4 days at about 20bt/kilo cup.
Life goes on..hope the drought does not continue as wells are real low. .....happy days.

On the glass half full side we have a ton of bananas, the one producing coconut tree has three coconuts and the mango tree that self seeded has a million small mangoes plus loads of flowers.
Also many flowering trees and shrubs in profusion also....nice!

Jim: As an irrelevant aside re UK pensions..some years back was sitting aboard a 40+ plus foot power vessel of a very suss Brit... sipping his G+Ts..told me he went back to UK ,pleaded poverty with XX rent and expenses..and was awarded 110 pounds a week OAP...BS? Who knows?

Originally Posted by crepitas

pleaded poverty with XX rent and expenses..and was awarded 110 pounds a week OAP...BS? Who knows?

Yeah I think BS too mate. Easy enough to check if you're entitled to anything, look here. https://www.gov.uk/state-pension/eligibility No need to be in the UK to claim. Just as long as you meet the criteria.

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

Originally Posted by crepitas

pleaded poverty with XX rent and expenses..and was awarded 110 pounds a week OAP...BS? Who knows?

Yeah I think BS too mate. Easy enough to check if you're entitled to anything, look here. https://www.gov.uk/state-pension/eligibility No need to be in the UK to claim. Just as long as you meet the criteria.

No state pension for me in the UK, this was a job related one, not long term , seems it's there, but how much is the question.
They have changed my address, but I await the letter with details, been to the post office boss saying if the letter arrives call us, don't give it to bozo on the motorbike to deliver.
Question will be can I get any money, rules have changed so much, what I've read, you can pay 50% tax, crazy things, can't claim it for this and that reason, seems I can get 75% of what there may be if I am wiling to die within 12 months.
My money, government has stolen a load and still wants more.
Feel like I've been conned, paid in one way or other into pension schemes, OZ , UK and the money has gone, would have been better pissing it up against the wall.

HM Customs and Excise + HM Inspector of taxes had a ball with all of mine. One should have heeded the foresail flapping more diligently.

A guy I know who lives near me was nearly destitute, he reluctantly applied for his uk pension about a year ago and he now gets 114.00 poungs uk a week paid into his thai bank account, he left the uk at 26 and worked in egypt for years until he came her about 10 years ago. it is always worth asking, they can only say no.

Just harvested the Tamarin yesterday...7 baht/kilo. Not worth doing, but the old lady 82 wanted them. Got 5 rice sacks full. She husks them and I suppose try's to sell them. Have to humor the old folks...

Until the trees reach the age of 15, 16 years old, the time span of stopping tapping from complete no leaf to full new leaf and re tapping should not be less than 8 weeks, ideally 10-12 weeks. Even though full leaf and colour returns in as little as 3 weeks. The experts all say wait till the rainy season, but that is just tooooo long a wait.

Originally Posted by ltnt

Just harvested the Tamarin yesterday...7 baht/kilo. Not worth doing, but the old lady 82 wanted them. Got 5 rice sacks full. She husks them and I suppose try's to sell them. Have to humor the old folks...

wife got given a rice sack full of the sour type...shucked em ..now drying in the sun..but where to keep...bet rats will get at them? If we store enclosed in a bucket will they rot?