Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

Where is Snub, has he gone on a semaphor course

He;s on jankers, flipping burgers for the troops....

Russian President Vladimir Putin is making key decisions about the Ukraine war largely on his own, without input from his generals, analysts said in a report published last week.

But while doing so, Putin has proven to be more cautious than expected, said the report from the US-based RAND Corporation.

"Putin [is] making key decisions largely on his own without substantial influence from the Russian General Staff," the analysts said in the report.

RAND said that was simply because Putin does not trust those around him — and so makes "little use of economic or military expertise" at his disposal.

Western analysts have previously said that Russian military leaders, including Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu, are likely concealing bad news about the war from Putin because they are increasingly concerned about the consequences for themselves.

Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation who focuses on Russia, wrote in a New York Times op-ed in July that there is an "atmosphere of suspicion and uncertainty" in the Kremlin.

She wrote that Putin is "quick to blame traitors " and "self-censorship among top military leaders is likely to become more prevalent."

The RAND report said that, even in his isolation, Putin has been less eager than it thought to confront NATO, even as it continues to support Ukraine.
But this does not mean that he will continue to do so in future, it cautioned.

"If Russian territorial, personnel, and materiel losses continue to mount without improvements on the battlefield, he will face a set of unpalatable choices, including negotiations from a position of weakness, more extensive and potentially destabilizing mobilizations, or more draconian attempts to ensure internal control," it said.

Putin has made a series of threatening remarks before but has not acted on any of his more serious ones.

When he first launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin said that if other countries attempted to intervene they would face "consequences they have never seen," per the Associated Press.

Despite this, Western countries have provided billions of dollars of equipment to Ukraine, including steadily expanding its capabilities with aid including advanced Western tanks, artillery, and cruise missiles.

During a speech in July, Putin said there was a "serious danger" of NATO being drawn further into the Ukraine war if members of the alliance kept supplying weapons — though as of September there had been no obvious new consequence for the West.

Putin also mentioned Russia's large number of nuclear weapons, saying they would "guarantee" its security, CNN reported.

While Putin and other Russian officials have repeatedly gestured towards its nuclear arsenal, Western officials have reported no signs that Russia is making any serious preparation to use it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/puti...autious-2023-9

Originally Posted by david44

UK aims to offer military training inside Ukraine, minister says

Training and advisors were sent to Vietnam in the mid to late 1950s. We all know how that went. Not well in the end Mr.Secretary!

Originally Posted by david44

Shapps added that he hoped British defence companies such as BAE Systems (BAES.L) would proceed with plans to set up arms factories in Ukraine.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday he wants to turn his country's defence industry into a "large military hub" by partnering with Western weapons manufacturers to increase arms supplies for Kyiv's counteroffensive against Russia.

Surely that's not going to go down well with the Russians?

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

Surely that's not going to go down well with the Russians?

they wont worry given how long it takes BAES to finish any infrastructure projects on their sites

Sending British troops to Ukraine, as advisors or trainers, can easily be interpreted as intervention by a NATO country and therefore escalation of the war.

Originally Posted by Troy

escalation of the war.

Originally Posted by Troy

Sending British troops to Ukraine, as advisors or trainers, can easily be interpreted as intervention by a NATO country and therefore escalation of the war.

Putin will almost certainly see it that way, just as the West regards Russians in MENA and Sahel.

Also leads to them being targeted intentionally or by accident.
Worst scenario is Donbas Ukrainian snatch squad succeed with taking any prisoner/hostage.
I would imagine they will be key targets. They could be executed and still claim they are POWs as Putin has shown little interest in Geneva conventions
Of course UK/NATO is aware of the risks but training in adjacent romania or Poland would seem wiser IMHO

Originally Posted by david44

Putin will almost certainly see it that way

Oh ya, so he will threaten to nuke NATO again for like the 500th time.

Originally Posted by bsnub

Oh ya, so he will threaten to nuke NATO again for like the 500th time.

I am sad you find it funny

He may or may not.

he doesn't need subs or aeroplanes.

Enerhodar ZNPP is a timebomb already and a cornered rat may be capable of anything.

All the Russian occupiers need to do is wait for Easterly winds and turn the cooling off.

You may have heard of the damage from reactor at Chernobyl , this is the largest plant in Europe with 6 reactors.

USA and GB used depleted uranium, Iraq , Germany and UK all used gas, USA dropped nuclear weapons on civilians so there are precedents each was justified by someone at the time.

I do not believe Russia will go nuclear but I don't see it as a subject for mirth esp for Ukrainians, Russian civilians and all Europeans downwind.

Dripadvisor not deterred !!

https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Touris...Vacations.html

reality not bot generated material

for Ukrainian readers
Telegram: Contact @DIUkraine

Originally Posted by bsnub

Oh ya, so he will threaten to nuke NATO again for like the 500th time.

That's not the only method of escalating the war. It feeds Russian propaganda to defend the country from NATO and could allow an increase in the current "mobilisation". More funding can also be put into industry to support the war effort and increase the amount of equipment available to the troops. Putin ends up with more rather than less backing to support the war effort, although I don't think he will upgrade it from a "special military operation" to a full scale war, with all that entails.

Sure as hell, it isn't the best method to get Russia to end this war on favourable Ukraine terms.

Originally Posted by Troy

That's not the only method of escalating the war.

Yes it is.

Originally Posted by Troy

It feeds Russian propaganda to defend the country from NATO and could allow an increase in the current "mobilisation".

Do you even realize where most of these mobiks are coming from?

Originally Posted by Troy

More funding can also be put into industry to support the war effort and increase the amount of equipment available to the troops.

Once again, troy thinks that ruzzia is still the USSR.

Originally Posted by Troy

Sure as hell, it isn't the best method to get Russia to end this war on favourable Ukraine terms.

What would those "terms" be, Neville?

^ You have continually misjudged Russia during this conflict and will likely continue to do so for as long as this war continues.

Originally Posted by Troy

You have continually misjudged Russia during this conflict and will likely continue to do so for as long as this war continues.

Nope, this is coming from a guy who claimed that the ruzzians would conscript 700,000 men, amongst other false claims. The USSR is long gone, and that is something you fail to grasp.

Originally Posted by bsnub

What would those "terms" be, Neville?

Ironically the cheapest deal President Trump reprised can get away with

1 Ukrainians may recover Crimea , let's wait and see , with Russia's Black Sea fleet sunk or crippled and Kerch Bridge and or ferries sitting ducks doable.
2 Luhansk and Donetsk republics where most civilians are Russian speakers will require street by street resistance like Bakhmut only with Chinese weapons and Iranian drones freely available.
3 Once US convinces NATO i.e blackmail the Germans and UK to pressure the chavannist last waltz of Emperor Macron the French and Italians to toe the line that there is more gravy in rebuilding a shattered W Ukraine than an endless war in Donbas
4 Trump will explain to his redneck base that bucks (even if never spent) for stopping brown folks S of the border is better than Russians in Russian dominated and Russian speaking Donbas area.US industry and farms is of course dependent on cheap undocumented labor to undercut unions and fat Americans don't want those jobs while they have the option of food stamps , dealing fentynel or selling their ass in as subway rather than becoming taxpayers or warriors putting their real necks on the line to defend democracy.

Originally Posted by david44

1 Ukrainians may recover Crimea , let's wait and see , with Black ea fleet crippled and Kerch Bridge and or ferries sitting ducks doable.

Crimea is becoming more and more untenable for the ruzzian everyday, the Ukrainains will never invade Crimea because they do not have to.

Originally Posted by david44

2 Luhansk and Donetsk republics where most civilians are Russian speakers will require street by street resistance like Bakhmut only with Chinese weapons and Iranian drones freely available.

Wrong. Most of the people living in those puppet states are not Ukrainian at all. The entire "ruzzian speaker" argument is laughable. When the war gets to close, most will fuck off back to ruzzia where they came frome.

Originally Posted by bsnub

not Ukrainian at all. The entire "ruzzian speaker" argument is laughable. When the war gets to close, most will fuck off back to ruzzia where they came frome.

oh dear do check a linguistic census for any date since WW2 when these folks were born.

That is like a native American telling the blacks to go to Africa, the Whites to Europe and the Jews to Israel

Wikipedia reflects the native tongue of adults who are fighting age born 2001.I am not defending Putin ,Russian aggression merely refuting your lack of understanding of the Donbas linguistics. The red is majority Russian not Ruzzian as you insist incorrectly Rhyz is the language of Red Russia in the Carpathians formerly Austrian, Czechoslovak. We may disagree on the politics or military aspects of this debate but having worked and lived in the area I am well aware of the linguistic isoglosses.
Have you ever visited the lovely Carpathian Mountains or Russia or the Soviet Union, I have .

Originally Posted by bsnub

Nope, this is coming from a guy who claimed that the ruzzians would conscript 700,000 men, amongst other false claims.

"Could" not "would" and "up to" , which I believe came from Reuters back in September.

In fact, Russia had a few problems with the 2022 mobilisation, which ended up with many leaving the country, so they have wisened up a bit. Today is the start of the Autumn conscription with another happening on 1st November. That will be another 130,000 men enlisted, and they'll end up in Ukraine whatever the promises given at the moment. Furthermore, Putin signed a decree recently banning draftees from leaving the country, a law that many have speculated means a further mobilisation will occur if deemed necessary.

Your ideal that Ukraine will take back all the territory lost since 2014 is nothing but a pipe dream. Ukraine is relying on Western assistance for its survival and that will not continue indefinitely. There will be a compromise, an armistice, whether temporary or permanent will be the likely outcome.

I too think there will have to be a compromise, Russia will not countenance any final position that it cannot sell as some sort of a win. Western support will continue but so will diplomatic pressure to find a solution, Ukraine can kiss goodbye to NATO membership until it accepts a solution that ends this conflict.

Originally Posted by Troy

There will be a compromise, an armistice, whether temporary or permanent will be the likely outcome.

I reluctantly agree and when Sunak the green card Indian ,Scholz the temp German crisis manager and Macron the teacher's pet all gone any US president esp GOP will start to turn off the tap.


They won't stop as a long expensive war cripples Russia too. A small win for USA, a big win for Xi and a lose lose for the Ukrainian, but what else can they do unless UK wants to declare a homeland for the Ukrainians in the Levant? If that sounds preposterous read the Balfour declaration.


There's no Ukrainian AIPAC guarding their backs with blank cheques ad infinitum despite Ukraine being origin of more Ashkenazim than virtually any other place. The ashkenazim themsleves arrive a millenia back after the Rhineland crusades.