Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

Asymmetric warfare - like that phrase. As i said from the start with the tanks getting decimated, big expensive kit may have had its day in Theatre - its too slow, too easy to target and hit and too slow and expensive to replace, then there is the manning, training and loss of life.

A new form of warfare’: how Ukraine reclaimed the Black Sea from Russian forces


Kyiv has turned the region into a no-go zone for Moscow’s bristling warships


Russia-Ukraine war – latest news updates
Luke Harding
Luke Harding in Odesa
Thu 5 Oct 2023 14.58 BST


It was a moment of humiliation for Moscow. The headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea fleet – a building of elegant white columns overlooking the Crimean port of Sevastopol – was ablaze. Smoke billowed into a blue sky. First one, and then a second Storm Shadow missile slammed into its roof. Video captured the impact: a precise, deadly, thunderous strike.


The attack on 22 September killed 34 officers, including Viktor Sokolov, the fleet’s commander, according to Ukraine. Russia denied this, releasing footage of Sokolov, suggesting he was still alive. Whatever the truth of the admiral’s fate, the blow deep into enemy territory was of major significance. It was further proof that Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion, 19 months on, had not gone to plan.


On land, Kyiv’s counteroffensive has made slow progress. Ukrainian troops have run into formidable Russian obstacles. But on water, it is a success story. Largely unnoticed, Ukraine has reclaimed the Black Sea at least in part, by turning it into a no-go zone for Russia’s bristling warships – no mean feat given that Ukraine has no navy to speak of, and a handful of old jets.


In Sevastopol, a naval exodus has occurred. Two frigates and three attack submarines have left port and moved east to the safer Russian harbour of Novorossiysk, according to satellite data. Five large landing ships, a patrol boat, and small missile vessels have joined them there. A cluster of other boats have sailed from Sevastopol to Feodosia, a port on Crimea’s eastern side.


Driven from Sevastopol, Russia has reportedly signed a deal for a new naval base. It will be located in the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia, further along the Black Sea coast. On Thursday the region’s leader, Aslan Bzhania, said the permanent facility would be built in the “near future”. “This is all aimed at increasing the level of defence capability of both Russia and Abkhazia,” he told the Izvestia newspaper.


Speaking this week, James Heappey, the UK armed forces minister, said Russia’s Black Sea fleet had suffered a “functional defeat”. “It has been forced to disperse to ports from which it cannot have an effect on Ukraine,” he told the Warsaw security forum. The liberation of Ukraine’s waters was “every bit as important” as the counteroffensive last year in Kharkiv oblast, during which Kyiv regained territory, Heappey added.


According to Ukraine’s former defence minister Oleksii Reznikov, drones have been vital to winning back the Black Sea. Reznikov likened the boom in indigenous drone production to the early days of Silicon Valley, when Steve Jobs built the first Apple computers in his garage. He said: “This war is the last conventional land one. The wars of the future will be hi-tech. The Black Sea is like a polygon. We’re seeing serious combat testing.”


Reznikov said Ukraine was making an array of uncrewed aerial vehicles, as well as drones that travelled on sea and underwater. There was “competition” between rival outfits – Ukraine’s navy, special forces, GUR and SBU intelligence agencies – as to who made the best drone. “We have no serious fleet or naval capability. But we can hit them with drones,” he said.


Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Reznikov’s predecessor as defence minister, said Kyiv had pioneered “a new form of warfare”. It cost $10,000-$100,000 (£8,260-£82,600) to build a sea drone filled with explosives. Released in “swarms”, they targeted Russian ships costing hundreds of millions of dollars. “It’s an extremely asymmetric way of fighting enemy boats. This is true of cost and time. You can’t build a new ship quickly. They are huge platforms,” he said.


After annexing Crimea in 2014, the Kremlin became the Black Sea’s dominant power. It declared large areas off limits to Ukrainian ships including much of the Sea of Azov, around the port of Mariupol. On the first day of the invasion, Moscow bombarded and occupied Snake Island, a strategic territory near the Danube estuary. Russian troops swept into the southern city of Kherson, practically unopposed, and besieged nearby Mykolaiv.

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‘A new form of warfare’: how Ukraine reclaimed the Black Sea from Russian forces | Ukraine | The Guardian

Russian attack on village cafe kills at least 51 people, Ukraine says

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has accused Russia of “brutal” and “genocidal aggression” after a missile hit a cafe during a wake service in a village in the Kharkiv region, killing at least 51 people including a six-year-old boy.


Volodymyr Zelenskiy Ukraine’s president said rescuers were searching for survivors at the scene. The attack took place at 1.15pm in the village of Hroza, in the Kupiansky district of the north-eastern Kharkiv province.


He described it on Telegram as “a demonstrably brutal Russian crime – a rocket attack on an ordinary grocery store, a completely deliberate act of terrorism. My condolences to all those who have lost loved ones.”


Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs, Ihor Klymenko, said on Telegram the death toll stood at 51 and that “debris analysis is ongoing”.


Klymenko added that victims had gathered to remember a deceased villager in Hroza, which has a population of 330.

Ukrainian forces recaptured the village last year as part of a sweeping counteroffensive in Kharkiv oblast. It is situated more than 25 miles (40km) from the frontline, where there has been fierce fighting around the town of Kupiansk and in nearby forests.


Video footage from Hroza showed bodies laid out on the grass and rescue workers picking over a landscape of rubble. The cafe had been completely obliterated.


According to preliminary findings, the Russians targeted the cafe with an Iskander ballistic missile, Klymenko said. About 60 people were in the cafe at the time, he added.


They had gathered for a memorial lunch for a villager who had recently died, Klymenko told Ukrainian TV. About 10% of the village’s population of 500 were killed in the attack.

It was the worst ever single death toll in Kharkiv province, which has been repeatedly bombarded since last year’s full-scale invasion, officials said.


Zelenskiy said the latest strike showed “Russian terror must be stopped. All those who help Russia circumvent sanctions are criminals. Everyone who supports Russia until now supports evil.”


He added: “Russia needs this and similar terrorist attacks for only one thing: to make its genocidal aggression the new norm for the whole world. And I thank every leader, every nation, that supports us in protecting life.”


The Ukrainian government was talking to European leaders about further boosting the country’s air defences, said Zelenskiy, who is attending an international conference in Spain. “We will answer the terrorists. Absolutely fair. And powerfully,” he said.


Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelenskiy, said the strike was an “insidious Russian attack that has no military logic”. He said the “whole civilised world” had to defeat “Putin’s evil”, adding: “This is not just a metaphor or figure of speech.”

Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s new defence minister, said the attack was “cruel and deliberate”. He said he was discussing with allies “more air defence systems to protect our country from terror”.


Moscow has not yet commented on the strike. Throughout the 19-month war, Russian armed forces have repeatedly targeted civilians and civilian objects in Ukraine.


A strike last month on a city in eastern Ukraine that killed at least 17 civilians may have been caused by an errant missile fired by Ukraine, in what appeared to be a tragic mishap.


Hours after the strike, Vladimir Putin ramped up his nuclear rhetoric, saying Russia had successfully tested the nuclear-powered, nuclear-capable Burevestnik strategic cruise missile and had almost completed work on its nuclear-capable Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile system.


“In the event of an attack on Russia, no one has any chance of survival,” the Russian president said, in a speech at the annual Valdai Discussion Club, a Kremlin-affiliated research institute in Sochi.


He said he was “not sure if we need to carry out nuclear tests or not”, adding that Moscow could “theoretically revoke ratification” of the international nuclear test ban treaty.


Putin also repeated some of his grievances with the west in the speech, claiming that “western influence over the world is a giant Ponzi scheme”.

Russian attack on village cafe kills at least 51 people, Ukraine says | Ukraine | The Guardian

Originally Posted by misskit

Russian attack on village cafe kills at least 51 people, Ukraine says

Yet a page or so back there are a couple of posters on here downplaying the ruzzian genocide that is occurring daily against the Ukrainians. Shameful.

Not defending the Russians but shit happens in war and proving right and wrong is very difficult. There can be many reasons as to why/how the missile hit the cafe but unfortunately we're never going to find out the answer.

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

Not defending the Russians but shit happens in war and proving right and wrong is very difficult.

BS. This has been happening over and over and over again. It is deliberate and a part of ruzzian military doctrine to attack civilian targets.

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

There can be many reasons as to why/how the missile hit the cafe but unfortunately we're never going to find out the answer.

Maybe you can list a few for me? I can not seem to think of any. BTW, the ruzzians have also hit a hospital in Kherson oblast and an apartment block in Kharkiv today. Maybe you can try to explain to me how those attacks could have been for "valid" reasons.



Looks like this map will be needing an update after today...

Originally Posted by bsnub

BS. This has been happening over and over and over again.

Maybe so but I posted on the 'cafe' incident. How can it clearly be defined as a war crime when a full investigation hasn't been carried out and no body has been charged with committing it?

Would that be the same logical deduction that led to the condemnation of the Russians for the 6 Sept missile strike on the market square in Kostiantynivka? You know, the one that turned out to be a Ukraine missile.

Better not to jump to conclusions and wait for the investigation.

No doubt that Russia has committed war crimes in Ukraine. However, each case needs to be proven.

No need fot private snubby and his lynch mob.

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

There can be many reasons as to why/how the missile hit the cafe

Originally Posted by bsnub

Maybe you can list a few for me? I can not seem to think of any.

Ukrainian troops, command center, ammunition depot etc on the location.

Inaccurate missile, old and inaccurate maps.

Sloppy or drunk personel.

Pure evil on the russian side

Ukranian did it on purpose as 'false flag'.

Ukranian incompetence.

And.....

That's a few anyway

Originally Posted by Troy

Would that be the same logical deduction that led to the condemnation of the Russians for the 6 Sept missile strike on the market square in Kostiantynivka? You know, the one that turned out to be a Ukraine missile.

BSnub probably isn't aware or I'm sure he would have commented and retracted his condemnation on that one

I think people are more concerned about the other war at the moment.

'Cos the press are telling them to be.

• Ukrainian pilots expected to start F-16 training in Arizona next week

Ukrainian pilots are expected to begin training to fly the F-16 fighter jet at an Air National Guard base in Tuscon, Ariz., next week, according to four U.S. officials.

A small number of pilots, who arrived in the United States last month to participate in an English language course at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas, have passed their first test for English proficiency and are headed to Morris Air National Guard Base in Arizona, according to one of the officials, who like the others were granted anonymity to speak ahead of an announcement. There, they will train with the 162nd Wing, the main F-16 training hub for the Air Force, two of the officials said.

The pilots will first learn the basics of operating the F-16 in the classroom and in simulators before moving on to flying the actual jets, as is typical for any Air Force pilot training program. However, the course may be accelerated due to the urgent need to get them back to the battlefield, the first official said.

The group of Ukrainian pilots has been participating in an English language program at the Defense Language Institute English Language Center at Lackland, said Air Force spokesperson Rose Riley.

“Testing will determine their next courses and when the pilots would be able to commence F-16 training. Training location options are still being considered at this time,” Riley said.

The news comes as the U.S. announced on Wednesday that it will head up a coalition of countries training Ukrainian pilots and crew to operate and maintain the F-16s, alongside the Netherlands and Denmark. So far, 11 countries have signed up to help with the training, while the Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium will donate aircraft.

During a press conference in Brussels earlier this week, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the F-16s would arrive on the battlefield next spring at the earliest.

The training begins amid concerns that the Pentagon is running out of money to continue sending military aid to Ukraine, after lawmakers passed a last-minute spending bill to avert a government shutdown that did not include funding for Kyiv. And it comes days after Hamas militants launched a surprise attack on Israel, sparking a conflict that has rocked the region.

Officials in Kyiv have been pushing to get modern fighter aircraft to the battlefield for more than a year. The Ukrainian military, working with DOD, has managed to integrate Western air-launched missiles with its Soviet-era fighter jets, according to one of the U.S. officials, an effort Politico reported was ongoing in March. However, Ukrainian officials say modern fighter jets will give them an advantage.

President Joe Biden finally approved an international effort to train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s in May, but the coalition took months to straighten out the details of the program. Initially, officials said the pilots and maintainers would train in Europe; the Pentagon announced last month that some of the training would take place in the U.S.

A group of Ukrainian pilots training in Europe are already learning on F-16 flight simulators, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said earlier this month. The next stage is “flights with an instructor in real jets,” he said.

The Russians May Have Lost 55 Tanks In One Day Trying, And Failing, To Capture Avdiivka

Russia lost at least 68 armored vehicles in Ukraine over the last four days, including eight tanks. Even by the apocalyptic standards of Russia’s 21-month wider war on Ukraine, it’s a staggering blow. Ukraine’s losses in the same period reportedly are a tenth of Russia’s.

And those 68 destroyed and abandoned Russian vehicles are just the ones that Andrew Perpetua, an open-source intelligence analyst, has verified in photos and videos on social media. Actual Russian losses almost certainly are much, much higher.

The Ukrainian general staff for its part claimed its forces destroyed a shocking 175 Russian armored vehicles just between Thursday and Friday, including 55 tanks. On average, the Russians have been losing just three tanks a day since February 2022; the recent loss rate is nearly 20 times higher. Moscow reportedly also has written off at least five warplanes over Avdiivka.

Manpower losses are commensurate with vehicle losses. The general staff in Kyiv claimed 1,380 Russians died in Ukraine in a 24-hour period ending Friday. That would be one of the greatest single-day losses on either side of the wider war.

It’s obvious what’s driving up Russia’s casualties. For a couple of weeks now, seven or eight Russian regiments and brigades—each with up to 2,000 troops—have been trying, and failing, to surround and cut off one of the best-defended cities in free Ukraine: Avdiivka, which lies just northwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.

Day after day, the Russians roll out in long columns of tanks and fighting vehicles. Day and day, they run over mines, wander into missile kill-zones, blunder into artillery barrages and fall prey to explosives-laden drones.

But they keep coming.

It’s unclear why the Russians are willing to expend so many troops and vehicles in a failing effort to flank, cut off and ultimately defeat the Avdiivka garrison, which includes at least two brigades and regiments as well as attached battalions.

It’s possible Russian commanders hope to draw Ukrainian brigades into a costly fight in order to prevent those brigades from reinforcing Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive, which kicked off in June and has seen Ukrainian troops advance at least 10 miles on each of two major axes: one north of Russian-occupied Melitopol, the other farther east along the Mokry Yaly River Valley.

The Ukrainians also are advancing on the left bank of the Dnipro River as well as south of Bakhmut in the east.

If the Avdiivka assault indeed is a fixing effort, it probably has failed. “Ukrainian officials have already identified the Avdiivka push as a Russian fixing operation, and they are unlikely to unduly commit Ukrainian manpower to this axis,” the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. noted.

Maybe the assault isn’t a fixing effort. Maybe, instead, the Kremlin simply is desperate for a late-season win as the weather grows colder and wetter and opportunities for major offensive action dwindle. Maybe the Avdiivka fight isn’t really about Avdiivka at all.

Which makes sense, in a nonsensical sort of way. After all, “the hypothetical capture of Avdiivka will not open new routes of advance to the rest of Donetsk Oblast,” ISW explained.

But if the Kremlin targeted Avdiivka for its symbolic value, it badly miscalculated. The only thing Avdiivka stands for, two weeks into the bloody campaign, is dead Russians and wrecked Russian tanks.

The Russians could have quit after the first day of attacks cost them, in ISW’s estimation, at least 45 tanks and other armored vehicles. But they have persisted, their commanders apparently unbothered by the wholesale loss of entire companies and battalions.

In that sense, the Russians’ Avdiivka campaign eerily echoes their campaign around Vuhledar at the beginning of 2023. For weeks on end, Russian marines stormed the Ukrainian garrison in the settlement, 25 miles southwest of Donetsk.

The Ukrainians bombarded the assault columns. One road intersection in particular testified to the Russians’ refusal, or inability, to adapt. After weeks of Ukrainian ambushes, the intersection was littered with the hulks of a dozen or more destroyed tanks and fighting vehicles.

Today, Vuhledar is free. And so is Avdiivka, despite the Russians’ best efforts to bring the city under occupation.

Where this ends is hard to say. The Russians wasted the better part of two marine brigades failing to capture Vuhledar last winter. But an even costlier campaign around Bakhmut ended in a pyrrhic Russian victory this spring as Ukrainian brigades, having traded space for time and Russian casualties, ultimately quit the city 30 miles north of Donetsk.

If the Russians keep shoving regiments into the Avdiivka meatgrinder, they might eventually capture the city. But the losses they’re suffering could impair Russian operations across the 600-mile front line in Ukraine.

“So long as this high casualty rate can be maintained,” the Royal United Services Insitute in London pointed out, “it becomes possible to suppress Russia’s ability to train sufficient new troops to the standard needed to effectively conduct offensive action.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=338dbc169125

RUSSIA’S INVASION of Ukraine in February 2022 provoked a global security crisis. The assault on democracy by a morally sick imperial power in the heart of Europe has tilted the balance of power in other parts of the world, including the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. The failure of multilateral bodies such as the UN and Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe to maintain order means that Ukraine can only restore its territorial integrity by military force.

Ukrainians have shown their willingness to lay down soul and body for their freedom. Ukraine not only halted an invasion by a far stronger enemy but liberated much of its territory. However, the war is now moving to a new stage: what we in the military call “positional” warfare of static and attritional fighting, as in the first world war, in contrast to the “manoeuvre” warfare of movement and speed. This will benefit Russia, allowing it to rebuild its military power, eventually threatening Ukraine’s armed forces and the state itself. What is the way out?

Basic weapons, such as missiles and shells, remain essential. But Ukraine’s armed forces need key military capabilities and technologies to break out of this kind of war. The most important one is air power. Control of the skies is essential to large-scale ground operations. At the start of the war we had 120 warplanes. Of these, only one-third were usable.

Russia’s air force has taken huge losses and we have destroyed over 550 of its air-defence systems, but it maintains a significant advantage over us and continues to build new attack squadrons. That advantage has made it harder for us to advance. Russia’s air-defence systems increasingly prevent our planes from flying. Our defences do the same to Russia. So Russian drones have taken over a large part of the role of manned aviation in terms of reconnaissance and air strikes.

Drones must be part of our answer, too. Ukraine needs to conduct massive strikes using decoy and attack drones to overload Russia’s air-defence systems. We need to hunt down Russian drones using our own hunter drones equipped with nets. We must use signal-emitting decoys to attract Russian glide bombs. And we need to blind Russian drones’ thermal cameras at night using stroboscopes.

This points to our second priority: electronic warfare (EW), such as jamming communication and navigation signals. EW is the key to victory in the drone war. Russia modernised its EW forces over the past decade, creating a new branch of its army and building 60 new types of equipment. It outdoes us in this area: 65% of our jamming platforms at the start of the war were produced in Soviet times.

We have already built many of our own electronic protection systems, which can prevent jamming. But we also need more access to electronic intelligence from our allies, including data from assets that collect signals intelligence, and expanded production lines for our anti-drone EW systems within Ukraine and abroad. We need to get better at conducting electronic warfare from our drones, across a wider range of the radio spectrum, while avoiding accidental suppression of our own drones.

The third task is counter-battery fire: defeating enemy artillery. In this war, as in most past wars, artillery, rocket and missile fire make up 60-80% of all the military tasks. When we first received Western guns last year, we were quite successful at locating and striking Russian artillery. But the effectiveness of weapons such as Excalibur, a GPS-guided American shell, has declined dramatically owing to improved Russian electronic warfare.

Meanwhile, Russia’s own counter-battery fire has improved. This is largely thanks to its use of Lancet loitering munitions, which work alongside reconnaissance drones, and its increasing production of precision-guided shells that can be aimed by ground spotters. Despite the dismissive view of some military analysts, we cannot belittle the effectiveness of Russian weapons and intelligence in this regard.

For now, we have managed to achieve parity with Russia through a smaller quantity of more accurate firepower. But this may not last. We need to build up our local GPS fields—using ground-based antennas rather than just satellites—to make our precision-guided shells more accurate in the face of Russian jamming. We need to make greater use of kamikaze drones to strike Russian artillery. And we need our partners to send us better artillery-reconnaissance equipment that can locate Russian guns.

The fourth task is mine-breaching technology. We had limited and outdated equipment for this at the start of the war. But even Western supplies, such as Norwegian mine-clearing tanks and rocket-powered mine-clearing devices, have proved insufficient given the scale of Russian minefields, which stretch back 20km in places. When we do breach minefields, Russia quickly replenishes them by firing new mines from a distance.

Technology is the answer. We need radar-like sensors that use invisible pulses of light to detect mines in the ground and smoke-projection systems to conceal the activities of our de-mining units. We can use jet engines from decommissioned aircraft, water cannons or cluster munitions to breach mine barriers without digging into the ground. New types of tunnel excavators, such as a robot which uses plasma torches to bore tunnels, can also help.

My fifth and final priority is to build up our reserves. Russia has failed to capitalise on its hefty manpower advantage because Vladimir Putin is worried that a general mobilisation might spark a political crisis, and because Russia cannot train and equip enough people. However, our capacity to train reserves on our own territory is also limited. We cannot easily spare soldiers who are deployed to the front. Moreover, Russia can strike training centres. And there are gaps in our legislation that allow citizens to evade their responsibilities.

We are trying to fix these problems. We are introducing a unified register of draftees, and we must expand the category of citizens who can be called up for training or mobilisation. We are also introducing a “combat internship”, which involves placing newly mobilised and trained personnel in experienced front-line units to prepare them.

Russia should not be underestimated. It has suffered heavy losses and expended a lot of ammunition. But it will have superiority in weapons, equipment, missiles and ammunition for a considerable time. Its defence industry is increasing its output, despite unprecedented sanctions. Our NATO partners are dramatically increasing their production capacity, too. But it takes at least a year to do this and, in some cases, such as aircraft and command-and-control systems, two years.

A positional war is a prolonged one that carries enormous risks to Ukraine’s armed forces and to its state. If Ukraine is to escape from that trap, we will need all these things: air superiority, much-improved electronic-warfare and counter-battery capabilities, new mine-breaching technology and the ability to mobilise and train more reserves. We also need to focus on modern command and control—so we can visualise the battlefield more effectively than Russia and make decisions more quickly—and on rationalising our logistics while disrupting Russia’s with longer-range missiles. New, innovative approaches can turn this war of position back into one of manoeuvre.

The commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces on how to win the war

No news from "The War of Inches" ?

Indeed, a waste of life on all sides. Its as much a war of equipment attrition as headcount

All this for one egotistical little man......

Russia-Ukraine war: Russian casualties in Ukraine 'top 300,000'

More than 300,000 Russian soldiers have now been killed or wounded in the war in Ukraine, the UK believes.


British military intelligence estimates countless more fighting for mercenary companies have also died and tens of thousands of Russian soldiers have deserted.


“We also estimate that over 7,117 Russian armoured vehicles, including nearly 2,475 main battle tanks, 93 fixed wing aircraft, 132 helicopters, 320 unmanned aerial vehicles, 16 naval vessels of all classes, and over 1,300 artillery systems of all types have been destroyed since the start of the conflict,” James Heappey, the armed forces minister, said.


Mr Heappey disclosed the figures in response to a written parliamentary question from John Healey, Labour’s shadow defence secretary.


The number of dead and wounded mercenaries is unclear because they are not included in official unpublished Russian army casualty figures.

Russia-Ukraine war: Russian casualties in Ukraine 'top 300,000'

Originally Posted by malmomike77

the UK believes.

Sure

Originally Posted by malmomike77

British military intelligence

Whether right or wrong, the brit "millitary intelligence" has been too active, hopeful and involved in the agit/prop of this disaster, to have a single gram of credibility left.

Bet you, that they are on BBC daily

Seems no-one is interested any more, especially Americans.

And with no money for Ukraine coming in, I daresay eventually the high-heeled war criminal will get to keep what he's stolen.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Seems no-one is interested any more, especially Americans.

And with no money for Ukraine coming in, I daresay eventually the high-heeled war criminal will get to keep what he's stolen.

The land grab has stalled for now.


Americas focus is on protecting Israel now.

Originally Posted by Joe 90

Americas focus is on protecting Israel now.

Their "focus" is what's Israel's "focus".

So their ....israely masters say.

Try "focus", Joe

Earlier it was reported that the US had agreed on a draft for another UN Seurity Council Resolution.

But they couldn't say if they "could" vote in favour of said resolution !

Sadly there is probably some truth in that. The Israeli tail is certainly wagging the American dog, aided and abetted by many ignorant Christian evangelicals and others including the influential jewish lobby. This conflict has not done any favours for American credibility and made Jo look even more out of his depth.

Ukrainian-piloted F-16s are on the horizon—and not a moment too soon for Kyiv.

On the cusp of 2024, Russia has made use of nearly two years of patchy air superiority over Ukraine, but it has fallen short of full dominance of the skies. Kyiv's air defenses have made a dent in Moscow's air force, although Russia's superior and larger fleet of aircraft has still hampered Ukraine's operations throughout the long months of war.

"The Ukrainians don't control the airspace where they're attacking," George Barros, a Russia analyst for the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. think tank, told the Associated Press earlier this year. "Those are extremely difficult conditions under which to wage offensive operations."

But the U.S.-made F-16s could change that. Although unlikely to dramatically alter the war on their own, the dozens of advanced aircraft pledged by Kyiv's backers will furnish Ukraine with new capabilities to threaten Moscow's air superiority.

"The F-16s will give Ukraine much-needed defensive and offensive capabilities," Frederik Mertens, an analyst with the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, previously told Newsweek.

"The F-16 arrival in large numbers should give Ukraine air superiority to protect their front-line Ukrainian troops against Russian attack helicopters and fixed-wing glide bombs," said Daniel Rice, former special adviser to Ukraine's lead commander, General Valery Zaluzhny.

Between F-16s and long-range cluster rockets that have arrived in Ukraine in the past few months, "every Russian target" in Moscow-controlled territory will be in Ukraine's range, Rice, who is now president of American University Kyiv, told Newsweek.

The F-16s are equipped with more modern avionics (electronic systems) and better radars. They were designed to launch the NATO-standard weapons Ukraine has been using with its older, Soviet-era jets. Ukraine will be able to operate from farther distances, taking out Russian ground-based defenses more easily and keeping Russian jets at bay.

On top of these new capabilities, the jets put Ukraine another step closer to NATO membership, which has been dangled as a possibility for Kyiv but remains remote until the end of the war.

Kyiv finally secured pledges for the advanced F-16s months ago but without public commitments about exactly when the aircraft would take to Ukraine's skies.

A U.S. source told Newsweek on Wednesday that it was likely Ukraine had received the first of the promised F-16s. Ukraine's air force did not respond to a written Newsweek comment request but issued a denial in a statement posted to social media.

Ukraine's foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said in mid-October that F-16s could arrive in the first half of 2024. This was reiterated by Ukraine's air force earlier this week.

There have been indications that Russia is worried about the imminent arrival of the F-16s. Moscow has started preparations to move its Black Sea bases further eastward away from Ukraine, "a clear indication of the danger posed by the impending arrival of F-16 fighters," Mertens previously said.

"We have seen the damage the Ukrainian air force has managed to do with old Su-24 and modern Storm Shadow cruise missiles" in Crimea, Mertens said. "The threat from F-16 aircraft will be far more severe, as these American aircraft have the correct interfaces to utilize Western weapons to their full potential."

Ukraine's supply of surface-to-air missiles isn't infinite, and the F-16s with their air-launched missiles are "one of the best ways to make certain Kyiv can spare its armies and cities the attentions of Russian aircraft," he said.

Ukraine has proved adept at wielding the British- and French-supplied Storm Shadow (or SCALP-EG) air-launched cruise missiles against Russian targets around the annexed Crimean Peninsula. Kyiv has also said Russia lost up to eight jets in just three weeks earlier this month, a testament to Ukraine's air defenses.

F-16s will be able to leverage HARM (or high-speed anti-radiation) missiles much more effectively than Kyiv can do with its Soviet-era jets. The F-16s can use real-time feeds for more accurate targeting. This "will massively improve the lethality of these missiles," Mertens predicted. It will also mean Ukraine can more effectively tackle Russia's air defenses.

Similar things could be said of the AIM-120 AMRAAMs (or Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles) and Harpoon missiles around the Black Sea area. "The combination of the F-16 and the Harpoon could give Ukraine sufficient anti-ship striking power to drive the Russian surface fleet from the Black Sea if they manage to get sufficient local air superiority to strike deep enough," Mertens said.

With Russia having lost around a fifth of its Black Sea fleet in the past four months, "the F-16s will increase that rate with strategic precision-guided weapons," Rice said. Attacking the Black Sea fleet and the Kerch Bridge, which connects mainland Russia with Crimea, with F-16-fired missiles would stop the resupply of Russian forces, he said.

But F-16 jets aren't an immediate game-changer, analysts have long stressed. They come with a whole new set of infrastructure, and it will take time for Ukrainian pilots to be fully comfortable in the cockpit, fully integrating the new platforms into coordinated operations.

Just because Ukraine receives tens of F-16s, this does not mean it can use them in a NATO-style air campaign. Yet they will allow Ukraine to conduct well-selected air attacks that can influence the flow of the war," Mertens said.

On December 22, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the Dutch government was starting preparations to deliver an initial batch of 18 F-16 jets for delivery to Ukraine. The Dutch Defense Ministry separately said that Ukraine's personnel must be properly trained before the jets are transferred, as well as having "suitable infrastructure" in place. The jets may be modified and "some of the aircraft require an overhaul," the Dutch government said.

The U.K. Defense Ministry said on Tuesday that the "first cohort" of Ukrainian pilots being trained by the U.K. military have completed basic training in the country and are "now learning to fly F-16 fighter jets in Denmark, having completed a basic programme of training in the UK."

In early November, a number of F-16s arrived at a Romanian facility designed to train Ukrainian pilots, with others being trained at an air base in Arizona.

But Zaluzhny, Ukraine's top commander, said in November that the Western-made fast jets are now less helpful to Ukraine than they could have been had they arrived before Russia doubled down on its air defenses.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-air-...ne-f16-1856091

Originally Posted by bsnub

But Zaluzhny, Ukraine's top commander, said in November that the Western-made fast jets are now less helpful to Ukraine than they could have been had they arrived before Russia doubled down on its air defenses.

In the occupied areas, agree. Time for some payback. How about find a soft spot target inside Russia to hit with an F16 air to ground mission?