Ukraine war mega thread

[Hugh Cow]

Calling out others on what they post is not what I do. I post my opinion on the overall situation mostly and rarely use links to other sources all of which have varying levels of truth.

My position on this war has been consistent from day one.

Russia's invasion was a completely unjustified act.
Killing of civilians is a war crime.
Although I hope the Ukraine can liberate all Russian occupied territory, I don't think they will for many reasons.

I think you are correct on all points and sadly the last one also Norts.

But when there is a settlement Russia must pay a high price for whatever land it eventually annexes permanently. Anything less will give free license to other regimes. I dont know who will decide that but the Useless Numpties must be radically reformed.

[helge]

the Useless Numpties must be radically reformed.

It's us, "the human beings", who are the problem, HC

[david44]

Anything less will give free license to other regimes

Agree with you and Norts

Od course not just other dictators like Xi but maybe Russia again, The Baltics must be deeply concerned at any concessions to Russian claims esp Latvia with a very large Russian pop, Lithiania the Gateway to enclave and Estonia whic would improve westrn access and offset Finnish membership of NATO.
Georgia Armenia Moldova all of Russias neighbours in fact.

Should Belarus collapse post Lukashenko we can pretty sure Putin will annex lest NATO ry do same.

Sadly US fixation over the "promsed land" will dver attenton and resoures.

[david44]

excuse typos on cell cannot edit I thinkmeanining is obvious

[helge]

The Baltics must be deeply concerned

Article 5

[Bettyboo]

[OhOh]

U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say

The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal with Russia.

Nov. 4, 2023, 6:47 AM +07

By Courtney Kube, Carol E. Lee and Kristen Welker

"WASHINGTON — U.S. and European officials have begun quietly talking to the Ukrainian government about what possible peace negotiations with Russia might entail to end the war, according to one current senior U.S. official and one former senior U.S. official familiar with the discussions.

The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal, the officials said. Some of the talks, which officials described as delicate, took place last month during a meeting of representatives from more than 50 nations supporting Ukraine, including NATO members, known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the officials said.

The discussions are an acknowledgment of the dynamics militarily on the ground in Ukraine and politically in the U.S. and Europe, officials said." ....

Continues at:

U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say

[OhOh]

[helge]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russia could be preparing to start a war in the Balkan region to divert attention from the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Russia may create new crises in the Balkans to create a distraction from the 20-month old war, Zelensky told reporters on Thursday.



Last month, Newsweek reported that another potential war in Europe is brewing amid rising tensions between two longtime foes in the Balkans—Kosovo and Serbia—after one of the worst episodes of violence between the two nations since the end of the Kosovo war in 1999.


The Center for Strategic and International Studies assessed in April 2022 that Russia's strong economic, military and soft power connections, and Russian President Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, have raised concerns that Moscow might try to further destabilize the Balkan region to deflect attention from its "flawed campaign" in Ukraine.

"Today, everyone is discussing the crisis in the Middle East.

But like I said before, frankly, it's not yesterday's problem.

Everyone knows about this constant conflict and constant war, but no one wants to end it because it is convenient," Zelensky said.
"Behind the 'explosion' in the Middle East is Russia, we are sure, with its ally Iran," he said, although there is no evidence indicating Moscow's alleged role in the current conflict between Israeli forces and the Hamas militant group in Gaza.

On October 7, Hamas led the deadliest Palestinian militant attack on Israel in history, with Israel subsequently launching its heaviest-ever airstrikes on Gaza.

More than 1,200 people in Israel have been killed, the Associated Press reported.

More than 11,200 Palestinians in Gaza have died, the AP said on Thursday, citing the Gaza Health Ministry.
The Institute for the Study of War think tank has suggested that Russia might benefit from the shift in international attention away from the war in Ukraine and toward the situation in the Middle East.
Zelensky urged the world to pay attention to the Balkans.

"Believe me, we are getting the information.

Russia has a long plan: Middle East, the second distraction will be the Balkans," he said.

"At least if the countries of the world don't do anything now, then there will be another such 'explosion,' and again, this is not a new story.

Russia will invest in ensuring that one Balkan country fights another."

Zelensky suggested that Russia seeks to push the West to spread out financial aid, which has largely been focused on supporting Ukraine in the ongoing war.

"When you want to help one country or you start to distribute that help and attention to many countries, then there are many challenges, many humanitarian challenges," he said.

Newsweek has reached out to Russia's Foreign Ministry via email for comment.



From his press conference yesterday

[helge]

Ukrainian men are going to great lengths, including swimming across rivers and feigning illness, to avoid being drafted into military service amidst the conflict with Russia.

BBC journalists have determined the number of men who have left the country to evade conscription. As one man argues, "we're not all fighters."


Since the start of the conflict, it has been revealed by BBC journalists that nearly 20 men have fled Ukraine to escape military drafts.

Among these individuals is a 26-year-old musician who explains that he swam across a river to seek refuge in Moldova.

Upon questioning by Moldovan authorities, he sought asylum, an application that should be lodged within 24 hours of entering a country to circumvent criminal prosecution.

"What am I meant to do in Ukraine?" questions Evgeny. "It's essential to understand that not everyone is a fighter…It's unjust to confine everyone, reminiscent of what was done in the Soviet Union," he opines at 26 years old.

Adding to his woes, he found it challenging to land a decently paying job as "everything is war-oriented," and bare essentials like electricity and fuel have become more expensive.

Post-Russian invasion, it's important to remember that men between 18 and 60 were generally prohibited from leaving the country.

After requesting information on illegal border crossings from Ukraine into neighboring Romania, Moldova, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia, the BBC has ascertained that between February 2022 and August 31, 2023, 19,740 men were smuggled out into these countries.


Yet, this is not the sole count, as an additional 21,113 men attempted to flee but were apprehended by Ukrainian authorities.

How were these attempts made? A significant chunk, numbering 14,313, tried to traverse the border on foot or by swimming across rivers, while the rest, numbering 6,800, relied on procuring phony official documents falsely asserting qualifications for exemption, such as concocted illnesses.

As per Ukrainian law, it's noteworthy that men with medical conditions, those with caretaker responsibilities, and fathers of three or more children are exempt from military service.

They issued medical exemptions. Zelensky was enraged




In August, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky voiced his contempt for the "corrupt decisions" made by military medical bureaus, which he believes led to a tenfold surge in exemptions since February 2022.

Zelensky declared that all regional officials overseeing conscription have been dismissed, and over 30 individuals have faced criminal charges.

"Despite everything, I am convinced that the readiness of Ukrainians to defend their independence, sovereignty, and freedom is between 95 to 99 percent," Fedir Venislavsky, a representative of the president in the parliament, told the BBC.

The 40,000+ people who have absconded or attempted to flee might constitute a substantial portion of the population Ukraine needs to reinforce its army.

In August, US officials estimated that Ukrainian soldiers had sustained around 70,000 fatalities.

Another man, Vlad, successfully secured a valid exemption but failed to convince the border guards to acknowledge it.

He was exhilarated when he earned a place to study abroad and procured a study permit from Ukraine, but was soon disheartened upon realizing its insignificance.

"I presumed that my unsuccessful attempt was due to an unwelcoming checkpoint. I ventured to another, and then another. They ridiculed me and directed me home. I understood that this 'permit' had no value to a border guard," he elucidates.

Ultimately, Vlad exited the country by evading authorities and crossing the River Tisza into Romania.

[helge]

For balance:

Many thousands of russians has left Russia for the same reasons.

Tens, maybe/ probably hundreds of thousands.

[helge]

Getting a bit to close


FT: Denmark may block Russian oil tankers from crossing through its waters



by Nate Ostiller andThe Kyiv Independent news deskNovember 15, 2023 1:25 PM2 min read


The Russian-chartered vessel ANSHUN II with "Yokohama" fenders prepared and pipelines connected to receive another tanker and transfer Russian crude oil 20 miles off Ceuta, Spain, on March 5, 2023. (Antonio Sempere/Europa Press

Denmark could start inspecting and potentially blocking the transit of Russian oil tankers through its territorial waters, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Nov. 15, citing unnamed sources.

Denmark would possibly target Russian oil tankers operating without Western insurance, which some have opted to do since the U.S. and its allies imposed a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil exports.

Although sources told the FT on Nov. 14 that the price cap was almost completely ineffective, with Russian oil consistently trading at more than $20 above it, Western companies have also refused to provide insurance to ships that fail to comply with the price cap.

Denmark could use existing international laws allowing states to check cargo ships for suspected environmental violations.

Sources said the EU is concerned that non-Western insurance, and especially the falsified insurance that some ships have been found to carry, would not cover oil spills.

As a result, Denmark may have cause to stop and inspect Russian oil tankers and potentially prevent them from continuing their journey.

According to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which governs maritime traffic, a state may “institute proceedings, including detention of the vessel,” given “clear objective evidence” that there is a potential threat to the environment.

However, sources said that the plan would depend on the "capacity of Denmark’s naval authorities to stop and check the tankers, and raises the question of what Copenhagen would do if a ship refused to stop."

A spokesman for the Danish Defense Command told the FT, “In short, we don’t check paperwork or ships passing or sailing through the straits, unless it has to do with safety at sea.”

Blocking the Danish straits, or even reducing access for Russian oil tankers, would likely be a significant blow to Russia's export capacity.

"All of Russia’s oil shipped through the Baltic Sea, roughly 60 per cent of its total seaborne oil exports, crosses the narrow Danish straits on its way to international markets," the FT wrote.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported on Nov. 14 that revenue from Russian oil exports fell by almost 2.5% in October from the previous month, in part due to sanctions and other related effects of the price cap.

However, Russia's oil revenue in October was still almost $5.75 billion higher than in January 2023, shortly after the price cap was introduced in December 2022.

• 
  
  

The European Parliament noted that, as of August, the EU was still sending Russia 2 billion euros ($2.16 billion) per month for fossil fuels.


Harrasing the russians in international waters ?

This is exactly what I feared and we'll do it, if ordered.

Fucking idiots

[pickel]

Harrasing the russians in international waters ?

Are you sure?

Denmark could start inspecting and potentially blocking the transit of Russian oil tankers through its territorial waters

[helge]

Are you sure?

Almost

The Great Belt is passage between two international waters, The Baltic and the North Sea, and the russians have free passage.

UN convention 19 or such.


Almost sure.

(I hope this is the ukranians dreaming or hoping...haven't seen it in the danish press yet)

[helge]

UN convention 19 or such.

Convention on the Law of the Sea

Article 19

"Innocent Passage"

[Norton]

Getting a bit to close

Depending on things go bro, things could get too close for comfort. Any bomb shelters near you?

[Norton]

how things go rather

[helge]

Any bomb shelters near you?

Fucking hell, Norton !

That's not helpful.

And the answer is: I have no idea.


I'd better polish my clogs and go organize a March.

[Norton]

Better safe than sorry bro.

[Hugh Cow]

I doubt the Danes will poke the bear without big brother.

[helge]

I doubt the Danes will poke the bear without big brother.

Goes without saying, HC

[Bettyboo]

I doubt the Danes will poke the bear without big brother.

Sweden?

[OhOh]

Convention on the Law of the Sea

Article 19

"Innocent Passage"

You are assuming that the 16% will abide to such international conventions.

The waters around China's islands of Taiwan and their other South China Sea islands are constantly abused. Clauses A to E.



Innocent passage

"Passage is innocent so long as it is not prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State. Such passage shall take place in conformity with this Convention and with other rules of international law.


Passage of a foreign ship shall be considered to be prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State if in the territorial sea it engages in any of the following activities:


(a) any threat or use of force against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of the coastal State, or in any other manner in violation of the principles of international law embodied in the Charter of the United Nations;

(b) any exercise or practice with weapons of any kind;

(c) any act aimed at collecting information to the prejudice of the defence or security of the coastal State;

(d) any act of propaganda aimed at affecting the defence or security of the coastal State;

(e) the launching, landing or taking on board of any aircraft;

(f) the launching, landing or taking on board of any military device;

(g) the loading or unloading of any commodity, currency or person contrary to the customs, fiscal, immigration or sanitary laws and regulations of the coastal State;

(h) any act of wilful and serious pollution contrary to this Convention;

(I) any fishing activities;

(j) the carrying out of research or survey activities;

(k) any act aimed at interfering with any systems of communication or any other facilities or installations of the coastal State;

(l) any other activity not having a direct bearing on passage."

Innocent passage - Wikipedia

[bsnub]

The waters around China's islands of Taiwan and their other South China Sea islands are constantly abused. Clauses A to E.

Because they do not belong to the CCP, you utter imbecile. More shit from the vatnik useful idiot.

[helge]

You are assuming that the 16% will abide to such international conventions.

Hmm
In this case I hope so

The only scenario, in which I can see Denmark getting hit, is if we block the straits.

That would be a de facto declaration of war.


We'll never get invaded; we are unbearably contrarian

(j) the carrying out of research or survey activities;

(k) any act aimed at interfering with any systems of communication or any other facilities or installations of the coastal State;

I'm sure that they survey the sub infrastructure. Their Zig-Zag routes suggest either that or severe Vodka intake of the russian skippers

For you OHOH :

Because they do not belong to the CCP, you utter imbecile. More shit from the vatnik useful idiot.

Carry on, Snub

You are winning