Ukraine war mega thread

[bsnub]

Taking Crimea won't be easy and IMO Ukraine are going to need longer range weapons if they are to win in the short term.

Watch the General Ben vid. A month old and still relevent.

[Iceman123]

So, anyone any thoughts on how long this conflict is going to last? Are we talking another 5 years or so? I can't see either side stopping without gain.

The war will end with a negotiated settlement. The longer it goes on is in neither sides interest.

Crimea will remain part of Russia, as will parts of the Donbas region. Ukraine will be offered a neutrality that would guarantee their sovereignty by the West should they be attacked again.

Many posters on this thread may not like the result, but in reality it is the only way to stop the madness.

My guess is it will be over by the end of 23 at latest.

This answer will not suit the petulant man child from Seattle, however that appears the most likely result.

[Troy]

^ Definite possibility iceman, but imo that is more likely if the conflict continues flmedium term rather than end of 23. I guess a lot depends on how much Europe can take before applying more pressure to end the conflict.

[OhOh]

You like looking stoopid, don't ya.

No point engaging with him.

Meanwhile, an example of the 16% government/media's relations. Not limited to German media, I suspect.

22 Dec, 2022 09:58 HomeWorld News

Selling a war: Report exposes how German media stirs up militancy in society and works to prevent negotiations with Russia

A shock study exposes how the press is pushing for confrontation with Moscow in the EU's most powerful state

"Last week, the University of Mainz published a study of German news coverage of events in Ukraine, and Berlin’s official response to the crisis. The conclusions confirm that since February 24, the media has played a major role in keeping the conflict going, and making a negotiated settlement less likely, due to almost universally biased, pro-war, anti-Russia content being published at all stages.Researchers at the university analyzed German-language reporting on the Ukraine conflict between February 24 and May 31, assessing the content of around 4,300 separate articles published by the country’s eight leading newspapers and TV stations: FAZ, Suddeutsche Zeitung, Bild, Spiegel, Zeit, ARD Tagesschau, ZDF Today, and RTL Aktuell.

During this time, Ukraine was portrayed positively in 64% of all coverage, and President Vladimir Zelensky in 67%. By contrast, Russia was portrayed “almost exclusively negatively” 88% of the time, and President Vladimir Putin in 96% of cases. Almost all reports – 93% in total – attributed sole blame for the war to Putin and/or Russia. The West was named as “jointly responsible” in only 4% of instances, Ukraine even less so at 2%.

The perspectives of Russia on the conflict were only considered or mentioned in 10% of news reports, less than the viewpoint of any other country, including Moscow’s neighbors. Alternative for Germany and the Left Party, which both oppose arming Ukraine and prolonging the fighting, “had practically no media presence in reporting on the war.” Government messaging and statements from ministers were completely dominant, being the focus in 80% of news coverage, more than four times above the figure for opposition parties.
In media discussions of “measures most likely to end the war,” economic sanctions against Russia were “by far the most frequently reported,” and approved of in 66% of cases. Diplomatic measures were mentioned “much less frequently,” while “humanitarian measures” were even less regularly featured.
In all, 74% of the reports surveyed portrayed military support to Ukraine “extremely positively.” Delivery of heavy weapons was endorsed “a little less clearly, but still considered to be largely sensible,” with 66% “overwhelmingly in favor.” Less than half – 43% – gave the impression that diplomatic negotiations would be useful, and this was largely due to Der Spiegel’s reporting that clearly marked diplomacy as the most sensible option for Berlin “by far.”
“Der Spiegel was the only media examined to rate diplomatic negotiations more positively than the delivery of heavy weapons,” the academics conclude.
The report did identify one area where media coverage was “certainly not pro-government.” On certain rare occasions, Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his coalition were strongly criticized “for hesitating to flood Ukraine with heavy weapons” by all outlets apart from Der Spiegel.

The report adds that “not all members of the government were equally affected by the criticism.” While those who escaped censure aren’t listed, it’s a fair bet they are representatives of government coalition parties such as the Greens, who have been demanding that Berlin flood Kiev with arms from day one.
Overall, though, the study offers a disturbing view into how Germany’s entire media lined up behind the cause of war and a dangerous escalation against Russia. Meanwhile, consideration of alternative policies, such as supporting a diplomatic settlement or urging Ukraine to engage in productive negotiations to end the fighting as early as possible was almost completely absent – or indeed completely withheld – from any news reporting or analysis.
It also shows how journalists are among the most aggressive and effective lobbyists for war. Germany is just one country, and a similar investigation of media coverage of the conflict in any Western state would inevitably reach similar conclusions. In many cases, the findings could possibly be even more drastic, in terms of the one-sided, pro-war picture presented to average citizens by the press, and the lack of opposing, pro-diplomacy viewpoints.
This would surely be the case in the UK and US, the two countries most eagerly pushing proxy war with Russia. It has been confirmed that Kiev and Moscow reached a negotiated interim settlement in early April, whereby Russia would withdraw to its pre-February 24 position, and Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership in return for security guarantees from a number of countries.
However, at the very last minute, then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson reportedly flew to Kiev and demanded that Zelensky step away from talks. This shocking fact has barely been mentioned in English-language news, but this should not surprise us.
These organizations and the journalists who work for them seem to have a forever war to sell. For that to happen, the Western public apparently cannot be allowed to know it’s possible to achieve peace by alternative means to death and destruction. It is also necessary, it appears, to mislead Europeans about the consequences of the conflict for their own economies and personal lives, as the University of Mainz study proves.
Between February 24 and May 31, the proportion of reports that mentioned or were about the “influence of the war on Germany,” such as energy shortages and price inflation, never rose above 15% in total per week. It is only lately the country’s media has begun to recognize this damage, and explored what it means for the average citizen. A majority of the public may not see the huge recession coming, or have any idea that it is self-inflicted."

Russia's illegal attack on Ukraine's sovereignty has been in the headlines for months. The turning point associated with the armed conflict also raises domestic political questions.
Does military support for Ukraine threaten to escalate the war and worsen the situation? Who is responsible for the outbreak of war, which steps promise to minimize conflict and which measures support peace efforts?
Researchers at the University of Mainz analyze the media coverage of the war on a broad basis of data and present differentiated results. The paper examines reporting on the Ukraine war between February 24 and May 31, 2022 using a quantitative content analysis of around 4,300 articles in eight leading German media: FAZ, Süddeutsche Zeitung, Bild, Spiegel, Zeit, ARD Tagesschau (8 p.m ), ZDF Today (7 p.m.) and RTL Aktuell (6:45 p.m.).
Their findings refute some of the impressions or personal assumptions that have shaped public debates up to now."

https://www.rt.com/news/568595-how-to-sell-war/

The report in German is here:

The quality of media coverage of the Ukraine war

Research report on the first findings

Erscheinungsdatum: 15. Dezember 2022

Authors: Marcus Maurer, Jörg Haßler, Pablo Jost

https://www.otto-brenner-stiftung.de/sie-moechten/sich-ueber-aktuelles-informieren/detail/news/die-qualitaet-der-medienberichterstattung-ueber-den-ukraine-krieg/news-a/show/news-c/NewsItem/


One comment on the German government/media colusion:

"This is the result of the secret talks between the German government and the media. In the 90s German media also successfully incited the population for a third war against the Serbia.

"Secret talks with journalists: Government wants to "realize its own political ideas" ...

In almost 50 pages, the government's lawyers explain why they believe there should be no transparency. The central argument: the secret talks were of "outstanding importance" for the "functionality of the chancellor's office". "Instruments of decision-making and decision-making that have been tried and tested for decades" are at stake. This is the “core area of ​​executive responsibility”. "In order for the federal government to form its will effectively, there must be a confidential and protected area of ​​communication between members of the government and journalists."""

[OhOh]

Military operation in Ukraine

22 Dec, 23:17

Chief of Russia’s General Staff on operation in Ukraine, West's support for Kiev

Valery Gerasimov touched upon the stabilization of the line of engagement, the results of strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and operations by Russian aviation

MOSCOW, December 22. /TASS/.

"Russia will continue the special military operation in defiance of the massive Western aid to Ukraine, the chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, told an audience of foreign military attaches on Thursday.He touched upon the stabilization of the line of engagement, the results of strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and operations by Russian aviation, as well as the amount of weapons and equipment provided to Kiev by the Western countries.

This is the gist of what Gerasimov said at the news briefing.

Progress in special military operation

- The Russian Armed Forces "will continue the planned efforts to conduct the special military operation to fulfill all the tasks set by the supreme commander-in-chief."

- The hostilities are fierce. Kiev uses terrorist methods and resorts to nuclear terrorism, such as the shelling of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.

- The situation along the 815-kilometer line of engagement has stabilized. The Russian military has focused the main efforts on completing the liberation of the DPR. Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 21 said that the line of engagement was more than a thousand kilometers long.

- Long-range high accuracy weapons have hit more than 1,300 critically important targets, thus significantly reducing the potential of the Ukrainian army and disrupting its command system, paralyzing the military-industrial complex and hindering the delivery of military supplies.

- The Kinzhal hypersonic complex, used in combat conditions for the first time, showed its "high efficiency and invulnerability to the air defense systems deployed in Ukraine."

- Russia’s tactical and army aviation performs about 150 sorties a day. It has already destroyed more than 11,000 pieces of Ukrainian military hardware. Drones have hit more than 600 targets.

Western supplies to Kiev

- The United States and its allies are increasing military support for Ukraine, "thus prolonging the conflict." Foreign financial support for Kiev has already climbed to $100 billion.

- Since the beginning of Russia’s operation, the West has supplied to Ukraine more than 350 tanks and about 1,000 armored combat vehicles, up to 700 artillery systems and 100 multiple launch rocket systems, as well as more than 5,300 man-portable air defense systems and 130,000 anti-tank weapons.

- In addition, the Western countries have supplied to Ukraine 4 planes and more than 30 helicopters, as well as at least 5,000 drones.

US and NATO actions

- The West has actually ruined the global arms control system. The sole instrument left of it - the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms - does not work "as it was intended" due to the restrictions imposed during the coronavirus pandemic.

- The United States considers NATO as a tool to protect its interests to the detriment of the security of European countries. The alliance's actions fan tensions and reduce the level of security along the line of engagement with Russia. The alliance is adamant to spread its influence beyond the Euro-Atlantic region.
- Washington and its allies have been intensifying confrontation with Russia in the Arctic. They question Moscow's rights to the Northern Sea Route. This is "one of the main challenges to security in the region."
- The West causes a negative impact on the situation in Central Asia and seeks to strengthen its influence in the South Caucasus, including "by demonstrating ostensible readiness to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem."

- In the Asia-Pacific region, the United States has been trying to break the existing system of cooperation and destabilize the situation with "provocative measures against China in support of the independence of Taiwan." Russia and China naturally react to the aggressive build-up of the US potential with joint patrols and exercises.
- Moscow is not going to follow Washington's example by creating new alliances and dividing lines in the Asia-Pacific region.

Defense Ministry plans

- Russia continues "routine activities to strengthen the defense capability." In the outgoing year, the army has obtained more than 3,100 pieces of armored, rocket-artillery and other weapons. The Aerospace Force was provided with "modern aviation systems and upgraded helicopter gunships."

- Next year, the Russian military will conduct the Zapad-2023 exercise and the Union Shield-2023 joint exercise with Belarus. Contingents from partner countries will be invited to participate.

- The Defense Ministry remains committed to such priorities as partnership and allied relations with the CIS countries, the military component of the Collective Defense Treaty Organization and interaction with the defense ministries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s member-states."

Chief of Russia’s General Staff on operation in Ukraine, West's support for Kiev - Russian Politics & Diplomacy - TASS

[NamPikToot]

That does not mean that America want it to end as soon as possible with a Russian defeat.

are you kidding, they fukin love it

[pickel]

Snubs say you got it wrong as hard as it might be for you so we stop this endless who got it wrong nonsense.

Is sabang gonna retract his fabricated Intel Slava Z nonsense?

[helge]

I've said it before, this is and will be the cheapest war the US will ever have with Russia both on a manpower and financial basis.

So true

Zelensky and Biden will let the ukrainians bleed

They don't care

Neither does the Seattle Hawk and his alter ego the Roi Et Oracle

[helge]

No, he wasn't in Bakmut yesterday

The footage of him being there is literally everywhere.

Who cares

If you don't know how it works, then you are ofcourse excused.

The SBU are providing "good stories" for the media to report.


If you have just a fraction of brain, you would know that the dwarf wasn't at the frontline.

Common sense and logic would tell you that.

But it was ofcourse served for the sheep, so....


Pickel correctly noted that artillery fire could be heard

Incoming, fired......or edited in, Pickel ?

Take your pick and acknowledge that you could be played

As could I

[pickel]

Who cares

If you don't know how it works, then you are ofcourse excused.

The SBU are providing "good stories" for the media to report.


If you have just a fraction of brain, you would know that the dwarf wasn't at the frontline.

Common sense and logic would tell you that.

But it was ofcourse served for the sheep, so....


Pickel correctly noted that artillery fire could be heard

Incoming, fired......or edited in, Pickel ?

Take your pick and acknowledge that you could be played

As could I

Are you even aware that multiple journalists were there to document it?

Nothing wrong with being a cynic helge, unless it's combined with ignorance, such as in your case.

Zelensky and Biden will let the ukrainians bleed

They don't care

Good thing America didn't listen to advocates of capitulation during Denmarks occupation in WW2, isn't it, helge? Do you feel like they were letting the Danes bleed by intervening?

[helge]

I'm sure everyone would be fascinated by your proof of how Ukraine 'invited' to be invaded.

Right or wrong; sadly it is the case.

Have a look around the world and you will find, that you can't fuck with your bigger neighbors.

Way it is; you will be punished if you do.

In this case in a radical way


Zelensky, his aides and predecessor are either idiots, cynics or bought.

A very poor gamble, that will cost the ukrainian population dearly.


Both the idiots who elected him, the ones who voted against him and the ones who stayed at home.


Self inflicted harm, if I ever saw one.


Minsk Accords was just a fraud.

Even Merkel said so.


The ukrainians elected nationalists; now pay the price.

Poor bastards

[helge]

Are you even aware that multiple journalists were there to document it?

Nothing wrong with being a cynic helge, unless it's combined with ignorance, such as in your case.

Easy question, Pickel

Was Zelensky at the frontline ?

Do you feel like they were letting the Danes bleed by intervening?

Still have to see other than guts from russian and ukrainian stomachs being spilled

Good thing America didn't listen to advocates of capitulation during Denmarks occupation in WW2, isn't it, helge?

America ? Capitulation ?........Ignorance ?

[pickel]

Easy question, Pickel

Was Zelensky at the frontline ?

Easy question, helge.

Is Bakhmut the front line.

What did you want? For him and the journalists to jump in the trenches currently being shelled?

[pickel]

Have a look around the world and you will find, that you can't capitulate to tyrants.

Way it is; you will be punished if you do.

More true.

[helge]

Is Bakhmut the front line.

What did you want? For him and the journalists to jump in the trenches currently being shelled?

Thanks.

No, Pickel

That is however how it has been portrayed.

And what BSNoob believes

[helge]

You wish

[panama hat]

Zelensky, his aides and predecessor are either idiots, cynics or bought.

A very poor gamble, that will cost the ukrainian population dearly.

That would be beating a dead horse IMO,. I said all I care to say about the subject early in this thread, to revisit it would IMO be beating a dead horse.
but

Russia has been messing with Ukraine since 'independence', asserting their economic (oil/gas) power over them whenever they felt like it.

I doubt anyone has forgotten Ukraine's position and 'difference' from the rest of Europe, but to be invaded on spurious grounds and having hundreds of thousands killed/murdered by the Russian thugs is not ever justified.

[sabang]

Both the idiots who elected him

Actually he ran on a ticket of moderation and conciliation- for example he campaigned in Russian (the language he grew up speaking at home anyway). That is how a comedian with no political experience got elected as President (also the backing of an infamously corrupt oligarch/ media owner). Turns out, this comedian was in fact a Joker.

Then again Biden was not so far different- he was gonna "Build Back Better', and make a better image for amerka on the world stage after dubya & The donald. What an asshole- his foreign policy is worse than the two of them combined. Now we're in a proxy war with Russia, in central Europe. The economic and geopolitical ramifications are affecting the whole world- and certainly not to the benefit of the West.

[pickel]

Thanks.

No, Pickel

That is however how it has been portrayed.

And what BSNoob believes

Okay then, where, in your empty mind, do you think the front line is? You might be disagreeing with both the Russians and Ukrainians there. You might even level-up to Uber Contrarion with that tripe.

[kingwilly]

You might even level-up to Uber Contrarion with that tripe.

I think he already has but his idiocy is drowned out by the likes of ohwoe sabang and backspit.

[bsnub]

Is sabang gonna retract his fabricated Intel Slava Z nonsense?

Of course not he never rolls back any of his mountain of lies and falsehoods in this thread. A definite double standard was applied by Norts.

Okay then, where, in your empty mind, do you think the front line is? You might be disagreeing with both the Russians and Ukrainians there. You might even level-up to Uber Contrarion with that tripe.

You are far more patient than I am when it comes to suffering through his drunken drivel. Just amazing how dim these pseudo-intellectual useful idiots are.

[pickel]

Sabang posted up some blurry map that got deleted. I presume it was his feeble attempt at illustrating that Bakhmut was not the front line. You know, Bakhmut, the place he keeps bringing up as being a meatgrinder. Aren't meatgrinders generally on the front line?

[sabang]

Here is a larger map then. Yes, Bakhmut is very much on the front line- albeit we are talking about an 800 mile front. Why would I say otherwise?

[Backspin]

Babies from incubators 2.0. Adults shouldn't be this gullible



This kind of propaganda gets translated and shown all over Russia. It really negatively effects the credibility of the west in the non aligned world. But they keep doing it

[Buckaroo Banzai]

I doubt anyone has forgotten Ukraine's position and 'difference' from the rest of Europe, but to be invaded on spurious grounds and having hundreds of thousands killed/murdered by the Russian thugs is not ever justified.

IMO, this is geo political football game between the US and Russia, and the Ukrainian people are the ball.
Sad but true,All big powers have a sphere of influence. It would be nice if it was different , but sadly it is not.
In this environment ,one has to deal with what is, and not what he would like it to be.
Russia was doing much of the same that the US has , with the only difference that the US is smart to use proxies and be covert.
No doubt that Putin is a thug;there is no way anyone can survive in the Russian kleptocratic environment without being a thug, and It would be nice if the Russian people could be rid of him , and the kleptocrats.
But it should not be done on the backs of the Ukrainian people. Other methods should be used IMO.
There is only one winner in this conflict, and it is the US, and Zelensky who I am sure will come out of this a very wealthy man.