Ukraine war mega thread

[sabang]

^^ Not like Yugoslavia then. The longer this war continues, and as Ukraine is further degraded and disunified, the more likely that other dubious parts of this sacrosanct thing you term 'Ukraine' will be chewed off. Starting with Poland- the Nationalists there have long had their eyes in Lviv, which in fairness was indeed historically a Polish city, and quite a jewel too. Unless you can persuade Vlad otherwise- but that does appear unlikely to me.

[bsnub]

If the training started in June and is for 120days wouldn't that suggest a first batch of 10,000 trained rather than 20,000 as you stated?

I had thought I read somewhere that it was the second batch of 10k troops. I may have that wrong, but it was my understanding that British trained troops participated in the Kharkiv offensive. It does get confusing because the UK had been training the Ukrainians before the war. Operation Orbital preceded Operation Interfax, and they trained 27k over several years.

Either way, at least 10k fresh troops with a high standard of training are returning home to join the fight, and that will be a valuable force multiplier on the battlefield.

[bsnub]

The longer this war continues, and as Ukraine is further degraded and disunified

You live in a propaganda fantasy world. That is not what is happening at all. In fact, the opposite is the reality it is the Russians who are being methodically ground down by the Ukrainians day after day, they take a massive pounding. They no longer advance at all, it is the Ukrainians who do all the advancing now.

the more likely that other dubious parts of this sacrosanct thing you call 'Ukraine' will be chewed off. Starting with Poland. Unless you can persuade Vlad otherwise- but that does appear unlikely to me.

Poland alone at this point could be on the gates of Moscow in a week. Who exactly is going to "chew off" Ukraine? It sure ain't Russia, they are getting their teeth kicked in.

[sabang]

Russia can knock out the whole Ukrainian power grid in less than a day. Until a few days ago, it had never sent a missile into central Kiev either. Think about that. Can it escalate? Oh boy yes.

[bsnub]

Russia can knock out the whole Ukrainian power grid in less than a day.

That is complete bullshit. If it could do it, it would have.

Can it escalate? Oh boy yes.

You swallow too much Russian propaganda. Utterly laughable and completely clueless.

[sabang]

The more the Laughies, the less the confidence- and the more the paranoia. That is quite obvious to see. Yes, it is true- with conventional weaponry, Russia can knock out the whole Ukrainian power grid in less than 24 hours. Not wishing to bother the pornmeister with more warporn, but their hypersonic missiles have little answer from conventional air defence syatems.

[Takeovers]

but their hypersonic missiles have little answer from conventional air defence syatems.

If they had any. They may have a handful left at best.

[sabang]

OK, Cowboy. Give 'em your best Clint Eastwood stare. They make them, you know.

[bsnub]

The more the Laughies, the less the confidence- and the more the paranoia.

Paranoia? I am not the lemming spewing Russian propaganda points. The entire talking point is so typical of the Kremlin's BS. Oh, you better be scared of us, or we will destroy your entire power grid.

Yes, it is true- with conventional weaponry, Russia can knock out the whole Ukrainian power grid in less than 24 hours.

Ok Ivan.

Not wishing to bother the pornmeister with more warporn

Ya, battlefield maps are war porn according to you.

their hypersonic missiles have little answer from conventional air defence syatems.

Oh so scary.



Putin is having his ass handed to him on a plate.

They make them, you know.

They used to make them. They can no longer get the microchips dippy, their entire war production is shut down, atm. You really are cranking up the FAIL tonight.

[sabang]

Laughie central. Lets see what actually happens.... I personally think Vlad would need to feel a tad perturbed to actually take out the entire power grid. But there are several pressing him to do so.

[Troy]

I would have thought telecomms and power grid would be the first to go, back in February. However, it would have affected the Donbas regions, which Putin is claiming to be defending.

There's no doubt Russia can escalate further but would it help Putin or just make things worse for everyone.

[bsnub]

Excellent watch...

[sabang]

Needless to say, I hope this is wrong....


Russia’s “nuclear war” in Ukraine has already started, but it is not with “normal” nuclear weapons. Russia’s nuclear strategy is to take down a large part of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, leaving it a country in ruins or, as some Americans say, bombing it back to the stone age.

For Russia, attacking critical infrastructure means hitting the vulnerable parts that can be wiped out with missiles, drones and artillery rockets.
Some read this as Russia’s response to the bombing of the Crimean Kerch bridge, a US$3.5 billion span that connects Russia to Crimea. But that is only partly true. Ukraine, which has admitted responsibility for the Kerch bridge truck bomb, crossed what Russia calls a “red line.” But it is far from the first bit of infrastructure that both sides have attacked.


What is different is that Russia’s massive attack starting on October 10 was not aimed at one discrete target but many and these targets are all around the country. Notably, Russia went after Ukrainian thermal power plants and command centers and was generally successful, forcing Ukraine to impose emergency measures on electricity use and stop power exports.

It is likely that the mastermind of the infrastructure bombing campaign is newly appointed Ukraine Special Operation commander General Sergei Surovikin, who was in charge of the air and land campaign in Syria. His leadership led to a month-long bombing of Aleppo where rebels and civilians held out in the eastern neighborhoods of the city.

Both Syrian and Russian aircraft flattened apartment buildings and used cluster bombs and incendiaries along with the Russian version of bunker busters to drive the defenders to surrender.

In the process and on multiple occasions, Russian and Syrian air forces targeted medical centers and hospitals including the al-Sakhour Medical Center, a well-known hospital in Aleppo that was hit four different times.

In all, the Russians and Syrians attacked 16 different medical facilities, according to rights lobby Human Rights Watch. Russia and Syria also knocked out water pumping stations and electricity.

Aleppo is not Ukraine. The battle for Aleppo involved irregular rebel Islamist forces, including al-Qaeda, that lacked heavy artillery or capable anti-aircraft weapons. What marked the Russian-Syrian campaign was ruthless attacks on civilians and the medical infrastructure.

Ukraine is different in many ways. Ukraine has an army that is gaining ground against Russian and Russia-aligned local forces. Ukraine still has an air force, although limited to a few fighter planes and helicopters, and it has plenty of artillery and armor.

Ukraine also has launched many attacks behind the front lines, using local partisans who have carried out targeted killings of “traitors” and bombed airfields and ports under Russian control.

While the Aleppo Islamists used terror tactics when they could, once they were squeezed into the Aleppo neighborhoods they were trapped.

In Ukraine, it appears the Russian strategy is to inflict enough damage around the country in order to force Ukraine’s leaders to the bargaining table. Until now, the war has not produced a successful negotiation because Washington has opposed it and conditioned its support and aid for post-war reconstruction accordingly.

While he is no doubt capable of his own zealotry, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has little or no room for maneuver. The Russians likely hope to convince both Kiev and Washington that the cost of the Ukraine war outweighs any benefits from continuing it.
Until very recently, the Biden administration had a free hand to pour weapons and money into Ukraine – hundreds of billions of dollars worth including some of the most modern weapons in the US arsenal such as HIMARS. That is now changing as attitudes in Washington and Europe shift.

Serious opposition is coming from Republicans, including Trumpists, who consider Biden a warmonger. Tulsi Gabbard, always something of a Democratic outlier who nevertheless ran for president as a party member in 2020, has joined Trump in condemning the Biden administration as warmongers. She has just, finally, resigned from her party.

In Europe, too, there is a trend growing against the war, especially in France and Germany. Leaders such as Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Sholtz are facing insurrections at home. As conditions deteriorate when the weather turns colder and Russian gas in short supply, both could find their tenure in office uncertain.

At the same time, the Biden White House looks increasingly like it is flailing. Emptying the strategic petroleum reserve has helped suppress gasoline prices, but growing shipments of LNG to Europe are raising natural gas prices at home. Just as in Europe, natural gas heats homes, runs power plants and is critical to industry and agriculture.

Coupled with severe drought conditions in the US heartland, impacting wheat, corn and soybean production, plus rising prices for essential fertilizer, this means that inflation in the US will likely get worse this winter, notwithstanding whatever draconian measures the US Federal Reserve tries to implement by hiking rates.

Biden was handed a major defeat when OPEC decided to cut production to keep oil prices up, driving the White House to say it is “reassessing” its policy toward OPEC leader Saudi Arabia.

Three congressional Democrats – Sean Casten, Tom Malinowski, and Susan Wild – introduced a House bill calling for the US to withdraw its troops and missile defense systems from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

For Russia, hammering Ukraine’s critical infrastructure has more positives than negatives. For Surovikin, who has been accused of war crimes and is already under sanctions from the United States for his role in Syria, his Ukraine operations are just another day at the office.

Ukraine is now asking the US for front-line air defense systems, but the Pentagon does not have many to spare and systems such as Patriot have not proven especially effective. Furthermore, getting these systems to Ukraine and manning them would require US or NATO troops and US contractors for maintenance.

Even then, there is a well-known shortage of interceptor missiles for Patriots, meaning that supporting them in an infrastructure war may be possible only for a short time.

The bottom line is that Russia may have found a way to change the direction of the Ukraine war, which has been trending against Russia with Ukraine’s counteroffensive and recent insurgent-style attacks on key targets.

There are still many questions. Can Ukraine keep fighting and win decisive victories? Does Russia have sufficient long-range weapons, rockets, cruise missiles and drones to do much more damage than it has so far? Will the Biden administration reverse course or simply dig in and hope for the best – meaning fighting to the last Ukrainian?

It is hard to see how a devastated Ukraine serves the interest of NATO, the United States, and, most of all, the Ukrainian people. Negotiations are the only way to head off a stone-age result.

https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/russia...the-stone-age/

[bsnub]

What is different is that Russia’s massive attack starting on October 10

It was not very massive at all. They launched 83 missiles, 44 of which were intercepted and some shitty Iranian drones. That is hardly massive. Some perspective...

For any student of history, Desert Storm’s accounting is well known. The U.S. and its allies flew more than 116,000 combat air sorties and dropped 88,500 tons of bombs over a six-week period that preceded the ground campaign. The air bombardment was so successful that the ground campaign was over in 100 hours.

30 years later, Desert Storm remains a powerful influence on Air, Space Forces > Air Force > Article Display

That was massive, and it happened over thirty years ago.

Ukraine is not afraid of these empty threats.

[David48atTD]

Ukrainian losses are far more than is being admitted.

Link please to what you claim to be a fact.

[bsnub]

Link please to what you claim to be a fact.

He is on another propaganda rampage tonight. He is doing everything he can to derail the thread with propaganda drivel, especially after I posted up some telling pics showing that the Kerch Bridge is far more damaged than he wants anyone to know.

[helge]

Ukrainian losses are far more than is being admitted.

Link please to what you claim to be a fact.

You know, David, I'm almost certain that they are bigger than being admitted and I don't know the numbers that they report

Just like the russian's are.

It's the nature of the "information" war.

[sabang]

Link please to what you claim to be a fact.

No such thing exists. You will only find "pro-Ukrainian" sources and "pro-Russian" sources- with wildly varying casualty figures. Of course, the "pro-Russian" sources are much more difficult to come across in the western information space, which is why I provided this:-
SouthFront: Crisis News, World Events, Political SurveySouth Front | Analysis & Intelligence

for those interested.

You will however find the occasional admission in MSM, albeit quite rare....



Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive


...The soldiers said they lacked the artillery needed to dislodge Russia’s entrenched forces and described a yawning technology gap with their better-equipped adversaries. The interviews provided some of the first direct accounts of a push to retake captured territory that is so sensitive, Ukrainian military commanders have barred reporters from visiting the front lines...

.... “We lost five people for every one they did,” said Ihor, a 30-year-old platoon commander who injured his back when the tank he was riding in crashed into a ditch.

Ihor had no military experience before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. He made a living selling animal feed to pig and cow farms. His replacement as platoon commander also has no previous military experience, he said.

... Russia’s Orlan drones exposed Ukrainian positions from more than a kilometer above their heads, they said, an altitude that meant they never heard the buzz of the aircraft tracking their movements.

Russian tanks emerged from newly built cement fortifications to blast infantry with large-caliber artillery, the wounded Ukrainian soldiers said. The vehicles would then shrink back beneath the concrete shelters, shielded from mortar and rocket fire.

Counter-battery radar systems automatically detected and located Ukrainians who were targeting the Russians with projectiles, unleashing a barrage of artillery fire in response.

Russian hacking tools hijacked the drones of Ukrainian operators, who saw their aircraft drift away helplessly behind enemy lines.

Ukraine has discouraged coverage of the offensive, resulting in an information lag on a potentially pivotal inflection point in the nearly seven-month conflict.

FULL- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/

[Norton]

No such thing exists. You will only find "pro-Ukrainian" sources and "pro-Russian" sources- with wildly varying casualty figures.

Nor will there ever be. Bottom line as it always is in war, far too many are killed, maimed and/or see their family members dead. In any case it is a mute point when determining the "winner" of a war. The winner will always be the ones that have the strongest will and means to carry on.

[sabang]

I don't see a winner in this war, full stop. Back on my soapbox again, but the real tragedy is that this war was allowed to happen.

[docmartin]

It’s the familiar ‘rich old men sending poor young men to squabble over resources’ story.

[harrybarracuda]

Needless to say, I hope this is wrong....

"....Even though I spent hours on Google trying to find this opinion piece that says what I wanted it to say".

[misskit]

EU Says Russian Forces Would be ‘annihilated’ if Use Nuclear Weapon

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has warned Moscow that its forces would be "annihilated" by the West's military response if President Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine.


"Putin is saying he is not bluffing. Well, he cannot afford bluffing, and it has to be clear that the people supporting Ukraine ... are not bluffing" Borrell said at the opening of a Diplomatic Academy in Brussels.


"Any nuclear attack against Ukraine will create an answer, not a nuclear answer but such a powerful answer from the military side that the Russian Army will be annihilated," Borrell warned.

Ukraine War: Russia-Appointed Kherson Governor Calls for Evacuation - The Moscow Times

[russellsimpson]

^Definitely fighting words all righty.

[panama hat]

^Definitely fighting words all righty.

Up to now it's only been Putin . . .