Ukraine war mega thread

[Takeovers]

Are a few towns, farmland, forest and rivers important militarily? Hardly.

A railroad junction that handled most of the supplies for the whole North and East is important. A second minor rail connection was cut today.

[David48atTD]

One of the big factors in Ukraine's success is the Excalibur guided artillery shell.

The M982 Excalibur is a US extended-range GPS-guided shell. It was designed to engage stationary targets with pinpoint accuracy.
It became a successor to the M712 Copperhead laser-guided artillery projectile.

[sabang]

A railroad junction that handled most of the supplies for the whole North and East is important

I think it was the capture of that railway junction (which supplied the Nth East, to be specific) which prompted the rather hasty Russian retreat in east Kharkiv.

[sabang]

[bsnub]

IZIUM/ 2300 UTC 11 SEP/ RU units reported to have abandoned positions at Savatove. RU units on the P-66 HWY are likely to be interdicted, and crushed by UKR infantry. Continued RU retreats are likely to a new defensive line behind the Donets river.

[bsnub]

[misskit]

Putin’s strategy to weaponize winter

As the summer war in Ukraine transitions into autumn and the harvesting of sunflowers begins, repeated Russian military setbacks in the Donbas region and Kherson Oblast are forcing Vladimir Putin to show his hand. Impatient to reverse course on the battlefield, the Russian president is signaling that Moscow fully intends to weaponize Europe’s winter energy needs — for not just Ukraine but the entire European Union.


Under the current circumstances, though, Russian ground forces may not make it to winter. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky possesses the Valyrian steel sword; he just requires the Biden administration’s full confidence and support to wield it decisively and bury Putin’s “special military operation” in the fields of Ukraine.

Despite long-range weather forecasts to the contrary, Putin is gambling on a brutally cold and snowy winter like that of 1941, which helped derail the German army’s attack on Moscow during Operation Barbarossa. Theoretically, the Kremlin’s strategic aim is to produce an energy crisis in the dead of a European winter to break the will of NATO from continuing to militarily and economically support Kyiv. The underlying assumption is that Europeans would choose warmth and comfort over Ukraine’s independence.
Putin couldn’t be more wrong.


The U.S., NATO and the EU need to put on their best game face and shut down this course of action now. Putin is in trouble and the alliance has a small window of opportunity to drive Russia out of Ukraine before winter sets in.


The Russian offensive largely has stalled and, according to the Institute for the Study of War, the “Ukrainian counter-offensive is making verifiable progress in the south and the east. Ukrainian forces are advancing along several axes in western Kherson Oblast and have also secured territory across the Siverskyi Donets River in Donetsk Oblast.” Russian ground forces are digging in; however, their supply lines cannot sustain them, and they are losing ground. Putin is still intent on capturing Donetsk, extending his deadline for that to Sept. 15, but his commanders on the ground lack sufficient combat power.


Putin neither understands, nor appreciates, the condition of his soldiers, as evidenced by a United Kingdom Ministry of Defense intelligence report claiming a unit from the Luhansk People’s Republic delivered a “declaration outlining their refusal to be deployed as part of offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast.” The report specified that they had “done their duty securing the Luhansk Oblast” but were unwilling to fight in Donetsk. Another report said the 127th Regiment, a unit stood-up in April with men forcibly mobilized from Donetsk and Luhansk, refused to fight over a “lack of vital supplies.”


Elsewhere, Putin’s war is largely limited to holding terrain and attempting to push through referendums to join Russia as expeditiously as possible, a reality not lost upon Moldova’s prime minister, Natalia Gavrilita, who, fearing the same, acknowledged, “If a country can start an annexation war without any regard for international law, then in this sense, nobody is safe.”

The Russian 3rd Army Corps, composed mostly of minimally trained volunteer battalions, is being sent to the front to shore up defenses and buy time, but it may take until November to get them and their decrepit equipment in position. While they await a cavalry, Russia once again will turn to its artillery to keep Ukraine’s military at arm’s length and continue the reign of terror against unarmed civilians in Kharkiv, Odesa and other towns in southern Ukraine. The undermanned, ill-equipped, and shell-shocked Russian forces tasked to “die in place” cannot survive without artillery support, and if it comes down to a close fight, their courses of action are fight, flight or surrender.


The High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems provided by the U.S. and increased range of munitions provided by Germany make the latter two courses of action more likely. Ukrainian fighters continue to suppress Russia’s artillery and maneuver to close in on an army whose will largely has been broken.


The linchpin to Putin’s “winterization” strategy, though, is energy — natural gas, and nuclear-powered electricity — and he needs a cold winter to play it. He built European dependence on Russian gas brilliantly over the past decade and is prepared to use it as leverage against NATO and EU countries supporting Ukraine. On Sept. 3, Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom announced it was shutting down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which distributes natural gas to Europe through Germany, and that “the pipeline will not resume in full until the collective West lifts sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.”


The impact will be felt throughout Europe. The EU needs a plan to offset this supply issue now, not in November or December. The plan must include reinvestment in fossil fuels and nuclear power, and a Pattonesque type of prayer, the “Weather Prayer” composed and delivered by Catholic chaplain James Hugh O’Neill at the request of Gen. George S. Patton, to stop the rains and allow his Army to defeat Adolf Hitler at the Battle of the Bulge.


Putin’s most viable course of action, the one he appears to be implementing now, is the weaponization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). It won’t win the war; it’s more akin to a desperate criminal who, cornered, grabs a hostage to negotiate this escape. The plant lost connection to its last external power line on Sept. 4 during shelling while International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors were present. Only one of its six reactors remains in operation. The ZNPP generates revenue for Ukraine, which exports electricity to Moldova, Romania, Slovakia and Poland. Ukraine recently offered to export electricity to Germany to help end its dependency on Russian energy.


Neither the German Blitz nor the Battle of Britain were able to force England to negotiate with or surrender to Hitler. Nor will Putin’s efforts to “freeze out” Europe this winter bring Ukraine or the EU to the negotiating table. Germany and Belgium recently announced measures to “get through the winter,” and Liz Truss, the United Kingdom’s new prime minister, has proclaimed, “As strong as the storm may be, I know the British people are stronger.”

Regardless, it will be an uncomfortable winter, but the people of Ukraine, the Baltic states, Poland, Moldova, Georgia and other countries once under Russia’s thumb understand the alternative. They are prepared to go the distance.


The EU must impose measures to lessen the blow of Putin’s plan to weaponize winter. Belgium Prime Minister Alexander De Croo perhaps said it best: The EU needs to “stop the bleeding” of high energy prices. Its energy ministers must work with Ukraine, NATO and the International Atomic Energy Agency to prepare for the possibility of a nuclear disaster at the ZNPP, its containment and clean-up.

This war is bigger than Ukraine and victory can be secured only through offensive action. The Russian military is approaching its most vulnerable moment.




Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division and the Intelligence and Security Command. He led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012-14, working with NATO partners in the Black Sea and Baltics. Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022.


Mark Toth is a retired economist, historian and entrepreneur who has worked in banking, insurance, publishing and global commerce. He is a former board member of the World Trade Center, St. Louis, and has lived in U.S. diplomatic and military communities around the world, including London, Tel Aviv, Augsburg and Nagoya. Follow him on Twitter @MCTothSTL.


Putin’s strategy to weaponize winter | The Hill

[Hugh Cow]

Jeez, seems like just yesterday I was reading about the failed Kherson offensive and the heavy casualties being taken, and the failed Special forces operation against the nuclear plant. I must have been dreaming.

Relying on Tass and RT will do that to ya.

[bsnub]

RETREAT TO ROUT: On the Izium front, RU forces continue to collapse along the line of contact. With the abandonment of Savetove, retreating RU forces are dangerously exposed. Make no mistake: this is Russia’s greatest single defeat since WW II.

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/sta...25675642286082

[panama hat]

So I won't spoil your fun any more

Excellent! . . .


Oh . . .

Russian

Kharkiv

the Russian president is signaling that Moscow fully intends to weaponize Europe’s winter energy needs

And forever alienate the continent and ostracise itself even further. All the efforts made since the fall of the Soviet Union to incorporate Rusia into the rest of Europe gas been ruined by a KGB-remnant relying on a halfwit population swigging the propaganda by the gutful.

[misskit]

Looks like it ain’t happening, sabang.

'There's no talk of November anymore' Moscow's plans to hold 'referendums' on annexing Ukrainian territories have been 'put on hold indefinitely'

According to two sources close to the Kremlin, the Russian authorities have postponed their plans to conduct “referendums” on Russian annexation of the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics and of Ukraine’s Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions "indefinitely."


Meduza’s sources reported that Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in and around the Kharkiv region was the sole reason behind the Kremlin’s decision to postpone the referendums. The sources stressed that political strategists with ties to the Kremlin in Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions have already been called back to Russia. “Everyone got the fuck out of there. They received orders to go home,” said the sources. Russian political strategists tasked with preparing for referendums remain in the Kherson region.


As Meduza has previously reported, Russian Federation Council Deputy Speaker and United Russia General Council Secretary Andrey Turchak said in early September that holding the referendums on November 4 — Russia’s Unity Day — would be “correct and symbolic.” Collaborationist officials in Ukraine’s occupied regions expressed support for the idea.


November 4 was the first prospective referendum date named publicly by such a high-ranking Russian official. According to Meduza’s sources, however, Kremlin officials believed at the start of the war that they would be able to annex new Ukrainian territories as soon as April. The plan was eventually postponed to May, then to September 11, due to Russian military failures.


The September date, however, also proved impossible. Meduza’s sources claim that the Putin administration, under pressure from the president himself, chose November 4 as a final “definitive” date, as the president himself is reportedly “tired of waiting” to annex new territories.


A source told Meduza that the Russian-backed “military civil administrations” in Ukraine’s occupied territories were slated to announce the official start of preparations for the November referendums next week. Now, however, all of those plans have been “put on hold.” According to the source, “there's no talk of November anymore.”


Sources close to the Kremlin emphasized that the Russian authorities don’t know when they might be able to start discussing possible annexation dates again, and that it will depend on how Ukraine’s counteroffensive progresses. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov did not respond to Meduza’s questions about the referendums.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/09...vember-anymore

[HermantheGerman]

“Do you still think that you can scare us, break us, make us make concessions?” he asks in a stirring polemic that is worth posting in full:Even through the impenetrable darkness, Ukraine and the civilized world clearly see these terrorist acts.
Deliberate and cynical missile strikes on civilian critical infrastructure. No military facilities. Kharkiv and Donetsk regions were cut off. In Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Sumy there are partial problems with power supply.
Do you still think that we are “one people”?

Do you still think that you can scare us, break us, make us make concessions?
You really did not understand anything?
Don’t understand who we are? What are we for? What are we talking about?
Read my lips:
Without gas or without you? without you
Without light or without you? without you
Without water or without you? without you
Without food or without you? without you
Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as scary and deadly for us as your “friendship and brotherhood”.

But history will put everything in its place. And we will be with gas, light, water and food.. and WITHOUT you!


Man of the Year!

[Shutree]

Are a few towns, farmland, forest and rivers important militarily? Hardly.

I think you are right!

Russia should just give them all back. Sorted, in time for Christmas.

[David48atTD]

Update from Ukraine | We reached Ruzzian Border! Enemy has huge losses!

[NamPikToot]

We reached Ruzzian Border! Enemy has huge losses!

Carry on

[OhOh]

ussia should just give them all back. Sorted, in time for Christmas.

Can I borrow your crystal ball?

Some opinions from a Russian:

Secrets of the battle for Balakliya: Russia did not touch Ukrainian gas fields, but now the Russian Aerospace Forces are switching to a special regime

By attacking our troops in the Kharkiv region, Zelensky made the biggest mistake



Alexander Sitnikov

9 September 08:00

"Ukrainian pravdoruby from among the adequate people urge not to believe "Colonel Arestovich " about the phenomenal successes of the Ukrainian army on the northern front. When they say that Russian intelligence missed the strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they do not take into account, first of all, the factor of 1.5 million Kharkov, which can accommodate up to 500 thousand “independence defenders”, moreover, right in residential high-rise buildings. According to the Kharkov telegram channels, independent soldiers were accommodated in apartments and houses, and often stayed as civilians. It was for this purpose that multi-day raids were organized, called long "curfew hours." At the same time, external control from the Lviv Yankee Center was clearly felt. It was not difficult for the General Staff to observe the factor of surprise under such conditions.

This was the main difference between the fighting in the Nikolaev-Kryvyi Rih direction from the coming out attack on Balakleya. In the Kherson region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were unable to break through our defenses, including because the military intelligence of the RF Armed Forces was able to identify the main groups even before the “Battle for Kherson” began. Special thanks can be said to the area in the form of a bare steppe.

According to insider spreads from the [Ukraine] president's office, British intelligence has warned the Ze-team about the danger of deep penetration into Russian zones of control.

The British fear that the elite units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine thrown into battle will be crushed just like the Wehrmacht on the Seelow Heights. No matter how the same thing happened with Kharkov as with Berlin in 1945, when the city was defended not by army units, but by the Volkssturm - in Ukrainian the therodefense, - intelligence officers of the British Defense Ministry are chatting on Facebook *.

Zelenskiy dismisses these concerns. He relies on forests that reduce the effectiveness of artillery and aviation of the RF Armed Forces. But skeptics, including independent ones, warn that the green light will soon come down, after which the military success will again be in Russian hands. And most importantly, Moscow will draw a conclusion from the current situation that Kharkov needs to be taken.

“It turned out better for the Ukrainians to counterattack here because the logistics center, Kharkiv, is at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The million-plus city covered parts and funds. Therefore, no matter how the situation near Balakleya develops, the attacks on Kharkov will intensify.

If you can leave the city, leave it. It is better to wait out the acute phase away from the supply center of the advancing group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” warns the citizens of the public “Our Kharkiv”.

According to this resource, the Armed Forces of Ukraine sent their best units, as well as mercenaries, to Balakleya. Almost all NATO art is collected here, from the German self-propelled guns PzH 2000 to the US MLRS HIMARS, not counting the HMMWV armored vehicles and other motorized infantry resources.

Judging by the coordination, the "independence defenders" have excellent awareness, which actually indicates the direct complicity of NATO on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Naturally, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation connected the “air resource”, after which the independent telegram community concluded: “Enemy aircraft switched to the “maximum damage” mode, leaving the “minimal risk” mode.

Such information is consistent with insiders from the General Staff of the "nenko". Ukry experts believe that the coming days will pass for independent soldiers under the "shadow of Russian attack aircraft and turntables."

In general, the information from the battlefield is the most contradictory, both here and in Banderstat, controlled by the Kyiv junta. On the one hand, the Ukrnet is full of videos with the hoisting of yellow-Blakit ensigns in the "liberated" settlements, while the General Staff reports on the successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are extremely sparing.

On the other hand, creepy videos appeared on the Web with numerous corpses of “independence defenders”. According to the commander of the Akhmat special forces, Apti Alaudinov, Ukraine threw more than 30,000 people on a counteroffensive in the Balakleya region of the Kharkov region, of which, in two or three days, at least one in six was destroyed

Kharkiv publics confirm the information about the heavy losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the battle for Balakleya. Due to the influx of "300ths" stocks of donor blood ran out in hospitals in the capital of Slobozhanshchina, a historically Russian region.

There is opinion that the Ukrainians have drawn conclusions from past zashkvars and are afraid of our counter-offensive, which will cross out the "overcome". If this offensive fails, it will be difficult for the Ze-team to explain the huge losses. No wonder Western journalists have already called the autumn campaign of the Armed Forces of Ukraine "the offensive of last hope."

The idea of ​​​​the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is clear: the General Staff of the "nenka" relies on the complete encirclement of Balakleya and cutting off the communication between Kupyansk and Izyum. On the side of the Ukrainians, we repeat, there is a forest that allows independent detachments to make deep raids. In this case, our attempt to turn the tide head-on is fraught with great losses for the RF Armed Forces, while saving manpower is put at the forefront.

Sources close to the entourage of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny also scribble in jingoistic ecstasy that Zelensky has moved away from interfering in the affairs of the "army", which allowed the independent commander-in-chief to begin the transfer of free reserves and part of the air defense even from near Kiev, which was previously Zhovto-Blakit the guarantor categorically did not allow. It looks like the professionals have finally taken over.

However, Moscow, it turns out, can very easily nullify the “heroic” successes of the “independence defenders”. According to a number of experts coming out, units of the RF Armed Forces felt relatively safe in their Kharkiv zone of control, since there was supposedly an unspoken “agreement”: the Ukrainians are quiet, and the Russians do not touch gas production in the Kharkiv region, especially since winter is on nose.

To make it clear what we are talking about, here are some facts: from Balakleya to Shebelinka, where Naftogaz produces more than 40% of blue fuel, some 19 km. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, Shebelinkagazdobycha GPU supplied 7.552 billion m³ of gas and more than 128.04 thousand tons of gas condensate and oil to consumers in 2020.

Now these crafts may be under the legitimate blows of Russian artillery and aviation. What kind of fools do you need to be in order to endanger the entire energy security of the country for the sake of a beautiful picture for the NATO party in Ramstein. Taking into account the fact that the ZNPP was forced to stop work, again because of the blows of the gunners, the violation of the unspoken truce will ultimately leave the Nenka without gas, heat and electricity at all. Moreover, you cannot particularly blame our side for deliberate strikes on the wells of Shebelinkagazdobycha. Who knows, suddenly HIMARS disguised themselves there. And in general, we did not start.

Let the hulks in the bitter cold thank the fools of the "Ze-team".

---

*Meta Platforms Inc. — the American multinational holding company that owns Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Oculus was recognized by a court decision as an extremist organization, its activities in Russia are prohibited. Social networks Facebook and Instagram are blocked by Roskomnadzor.

Original in Russian, machine translation.

https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/345530/

[bsnub]

Spokesperson of Operation command "South": some Russian units at Kherson frontline negotiating surrendering their weapons

The Russians are cut off in Kherson and are being constantly engaged by the UA. The Russians are running out of ammunition, food and fuel. It is only a matter of time before this front collapses.

Spokesperson of Operation command "South": some Russian units at Kherson frontline negotiating surrendering their weapons Mykolaiv - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

By attacking our troops in the Kharkiv region, Zelensky made the biggest mistake

Do fuck off with your utter propaganda horseshit. The game is up.

[OhOh]

The game is up.

Can I borrow your crystal ball?

[bsnub]

Russian Front in Kherson west of Dnipro set to collapse. Negotiations underway to surrender to Ukrainian forces with all equipment intact. @MriyaReport @WarintheFuture @AVindman @SpencerGuard

https://twitter.com/YAmzallagh/statu...79660898529281

[bsnub]

Putin's former speechwriter...

[David48atTD]

Deputies from 18 municipal districts in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Kolpino have called for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s resignation, according to a petition with a list of signatures posted on Twitter.

[bsnub]

[bsnub]

[Norton]

We reached Ruzzian Border!

Not quite but close enough to establish a force and logistics channels to hold the territory recaptured. A very impressive victory but far too early to proclaim the war won.

Will be a question of which side can out produce the other in equipment and trained boots on the ground. All depends on Ukraine continueing to recieve military and economic support from NATO. Lose this support and Russia will over time win this war.

If Putin fails to discourage support to Ukraine by shutting off all gas and oil supply to nations supporting Ukraine, he is fucked. Ukraine will win the war and Russia will be years recovering from damage Putin's gamble did to it's economy.

Early on I posted Putin would have to be stupid to start a war he could not win. Now confirmed, Putin is stupid.

[Backspin]

Why Russia is fighting with 2 hands tied behind its back I'll never know. They deserve the propaganda kick in the nuts for this nonsense.

Special Military Operation, Season 2 - Big Serge Thoughts


The first thing we want to note is that the disparity of forces on this front was absolutely laughable. Ukraine assembled a strike group of at least five full brigades, and aimed at a line of contact which had no Russian regular troops at all. The Russian frontline defenses in the region were manned by allied donbas militia and national guardsmen. It seems there was a lone Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) in Izyum, but little else.


It is undeniable, even for Ukrainians celebrating the advance, that Kharkov oblast had been almost completely hollowed out of Russian troops, leaving little more than a screening force. Two important things flow from this. First, that the Ukrainian shock group was in most places advancing against virtually nonexistent resistance. Secondly, more ominously for Ukraine, the low quality units left behind for screening purposes were able to put up good resistance against the Ukrainians - the Rosgvardiya men in Balakliya held out tenaciously for several days before evacuating through a corridor.

This was not an operational trap by Russia, but neither was it a victory in battle for Ukraine - for the simple reason that there was not much of a battle at all. Russia had already hollowed out these positions, and withdrew the remaining screening forces very quickly. Ukraine covered a lot of ground, but were unable to destroy any Russian units, because there really weren’t any there.

Ukraine’s successful advance in Kharkov Oblast has been augmented with a blitz of fakery and propaganda designed to simulate a total shift in strategic momentum. These include fakes related to Russian domestic politics, such as fabricated calls for Putin’s impeachment, and battlefield misinformation, like claims that the Ukrainian Army has breached the borders of the LNR or stormed Donetsk City. They have also circulated out of context videos (the most popular one shows a Russian vehicle depot in Crimea) purporting to show that the Russians abandoned hundreds of vehicles in Izyum.

The fakery is not important. Ukraine will, however, also attempt to maintain battlefield momentum by piggybacking on the Kharkov operation with additional counteroffensives. They continue to attempt to cross the Donets River in force to storm Lyman, unsuccessfully. They also continue their attacks in the Kherson direction, making little progress and taking high casualties.


Ukrainian channels widely report overflowing hospitals. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed 4,000 killed and 8,000 wounded for Ukraine during their advance - I believe this is high, but even if we reduce the numbers by 50% (leaving us with 6,000 total casualties, reasonable given how much ordnance Russia discharged) it is very clear that the loss ratios in this operation were stacked badly against Ukraine, as they always are.

This was made possible because Ukraine is a pseudo-state, which is supplied, financed, and managed by NATO. Western agencies cannot resist bragging - Britain identified itself as the party responsible for planning and organizing the Kherson operation, while the USA claims credit for the more successful Kharkov attack. It is difficult to overstate the extent to which Ukraine is sustained solely by the west. Ukrainian soldiers are trained by NATO officers, armed with NATO weapons, accompanied in the field by NATO soldiers foreign volunteers, and the Ukrainian pseudo-state is kept running by cash injections from the west. Videos from the Kharkov front abound with English speaking soldiers and foreign weapons.