Ukraine war mega thread

[sabang]

Peter van Buren (Giyf) has written an excellent article, which I am more than happy to copy here. If you can't handle it, guess who is the kiddy?

[Switch]

Peter van Buren (Giyf) has written an excellent article, which I am more than happy to copy here. If you can't handle it, guess who is the kiddy?

He writes empty words and I call it what it is. Bedtime scare stories for uneducated children like backspin.

FFS man, you will be commenting on the Oscar’s next.

[panama hat]

Did Russia, at the time in 2004, have the same abilities to defend itself?

Just how fucking thick are you? Stick to China apologist threads, at leats you know something about your country.

I would personally bet my left nut

Which would leave you with none, meaning you can't procreate - go for it

Why some of you can not understand a simple proposition such as "Provocation" is beyond me

As snubby said - why wasn't it a 'provocation' when other former Warsaw Pact countries joined NATO. Oh, and Ukraine didn't join NATO. Facts are sometimes quite handy.

Just because the response to the provocation might be unwarranted

Might be? Invading a country unprovoked and killing tens of thousands might be unwarranted? I look forward to the day Turkey kicks Greece's arse militarily and kills tens of thousands of civilians and soldiers and you then stepping up and saying it might be unwarranted.


Actually, I don't look forward to that as no rational human being tries to rationalise murder by the thousands. Well, except you, sabang, Backspit and Ohwoe.
I hope Turkey never invades Greece. Never.

I gave you a historical perspective

Yes, and it was irrelevant

[sabang]

unprovoked

This is where you are wrong.

Invading a country

Of course, here you are right. End of.

I don't believe simplistic assessments help anyone now. The War is on, and people are dying.
I believe we should be looking at ways towards achieving peace, not trying to prolong it.

[Backspin]

Might be? Invading a country unprovoked and killing tens of thousands might be unwarranted? I look forward to the day Turkey kicks Greece's arse militarily and kills tens of thousands of civilians and soldiers and you then stepping up and saying it might be unwarranted.


Actually, I don't look forward to that as no rational human being tries to rationalise murder by the thousands. Well, except you, sabang, Backspit and Ohwoe.
I hope Turkey never invades Greece. Never.




Yes, and it was irrelevant

Retard. Every nation has red lines. The US has them too as we seen in 1962. So when a nation crosses another nations big red fucking lines, the war is their fault.

[David48atTD]

So when a nation crosses another nations big red fucking lines, the war is their fault.

Moron (and I rarely say that).

To say that it's Ukraine fault that Russia invaded it ... classic moron.


IT'S RUSSIA'S FAULT THAT RUSSIA INVADED UKRAINE

[aging one]

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Backspin again.


Bummer...

[panama hat]

I don't believe simplistic assessments help anyone now. The War is on, and people are dying.

Yet you continue cheering on Vlad the Impaler

I believe we should be looking at ways towards achieving peace, not trying to prolong it.

Here's one: Get the fuck out of Ukraine. Really quite easy.

So when a nation crosses another nations big red fucking lines, the war is their fault.

That's what sabang, Backspit, ohwoe and BB believe . . . weird

[Bonecollector]

We should rename this thread 'The bickering war mega thread'.

[kingwilly]

Moron (and I rarely say that).

To say that it's Ukraine fault that Russia invaded it ... classic moron.


IT'S RUSSIA'S FAULT THAT RUSSIA INVADED UKRAINE

Worth repeating.

[harrybarracuda]

It got Gaddafi killed, and Libya decimated.

Libya was decimated by Gaddafi's bombing, you utter fucking turnip. He got killed for doing it.

[Buckaroo Banzai]

Why wasn't it a provocation when Latvia and Estonia joined NATO back in 2004?

It was a provocation , but they are not strategically and economically as important to Russia
Ukraine was the straw that brock the camels back.
A western aligned Ukraine creates and existential danger to Russia.
To analyze why Ukraine and not Latvia and Estonia would take thousands of pages .It involve the northern European plain funnel. Suvalky gap , Russian and Moscow's access to the black sea, Sevastopol, water, and Natural gas and Oil,
I have reputedly said, "This for the most part is another petro war"
The following video provides a comprehensive analysis at to why Ukraine, and why now. It is non partisan and makes no value judgments. It just states the facts .
Watch it and tell me what you think.

[Backspin]

The war is going so bad and the sanctions are hitting so hard that the Ruble is back to where it was the day before the invasion.

This is gonna piss the US off into doing something really reckless and stupid.

Russian #Ruble back to where it traded in the day before the invasion: 85 for one USD. https://twitter.com/whitenights_ro/status/1508757041703264258/photo/1

[David48atTD]

The war is going so bad and the sanctions are hitting so hard that the Ruble is back to where it was the day before the invasion.

This is gonna piss the US off into doing something really reckless and stupid.

Russian #Ruble back to where it traded in the day before the invasion: 85 for one USD. https://twitter.com/whitenights_ro/status/1508757041703264258/photo/1

Answered below. Backspin, look beyond the headline you cave so much.

Nothing is quite as it seems:

With the Bank of Russia preventing foreigners from selling securities, restricting selling of roubles and effectively forcing buying – banks aren’t allowed to exchange roubles for foreign currency for six months, those with foreign currency accounts have had their withdrawals capped and Russian companies have been ordered to use 80 per cent of their foreign currency holdings to buy roubles -- there is no real market price for the currency.

If there was its value would be far lower than its current exchange rate of less than one US cent.

[hallelujah]

Answered below. Backspin, look beyond the headline you cave so much.

I must say, Dave, that you're doing a fine job policing this thread, shooting down lies and generally putting cretins in their place!

[kingwilly]

,
I have reputedly said, "This for the most part is another petro war"

Reputedly? Really?

BTW the video is not neutral, nor is it a debating device. If you lack the wherewithal to construct and deliver an effective argument don’t resort to YouTube cut and pastes like backspin does.

[sabang]

But you are not kidding yourself that Ukrainian and western propaganda fed to you unfiltered via MSM is 'neutral' are you willy?

[kingwilly]

Not for a second. Unlike you I exercise my critical thinking facilities. But understanding that the media present a biased view is not the same as wholesale acceptance of the woohoo that you have latched onto.

[David48atTD]

1/5

The invasion of Ukraine has serious, unintended consequences for Russia. Here are just 5 of them


A banner that reads “Slava Ukraini” (“Glory to Ukraine, a Ukrainian national salute) in the backdrop of a demonstration in support of Ukraine on Freedom Square in Tallinn, Estonia, on Feb. 26, 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
While sympathy for Ukraine is rising in much of the world, the costs are mounting for Russia.
Raigo Pajula | Afp | Getty Images


Key Points

• When Russia invaded Ukraine, it was widely believed to have expected an easy victory over its neighbor, but Ukraine has proven to be a much more formidable opponent than expected.
• Just over a month into the war, Moscow is facing unintended consequences of its aggression in Ukraine, ranging from high casualties among its troops to economic ruin for years to come.

Just over a month into the war, Moscow is facing unintended consequences of its aggression in Ukraine, ranging from high casualties among its troops to economic ruin for years to come.

Here are five of them:

1) Russian casualties are high



Ukrainian soldiers salvage equipment from the body of a dead Russian soldier after a Russian vehicle was destroyed by Ukrainian forces near Sytnyaky, Ukraine, on March 3, 2022.
Marcus Yam | Los Angeles Times | Getty Images

Russia has been coy about releasing statistics on its losses, but one Russian Defense Ministry official said Friday that 1,351 Russian soldiers had died in the war so far, and that 3,825 were injured.

Ukraine’s authorities claim that more than 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the conflict, while a senior NATO official last week estimated that between 8,000 and 15,000 have been killed.

Russia'''s Ukraine invasion has unintended consequences for Putin

[David48atTD]

2/5

2) Ukrainians now loathe Russia



A car burns after the destruction of a children’s hospital in Mariupol on March 9, 2022, in this still image from a handout video obtained by Reuters.
Ukraine Military | via Reuters

One of the likely consequences of this war is that many Ukrainians will harbor an abiding animosity toward Russia, particularly after the bombing of homes and civilian infrastructure — including a children’s hospital and maternity ward in Mariupol, as well as a theater where families were seeking shelter.

These are widely seen as war crimes by the international community.
Russia claims it has not targeted civilians.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy summed up the mood in the country in early March when he stated that “we will not forgive, we will not forget, we will punish everyone who committed atrocities in this war on our land,” before adding that “there will be no quiet place on this Earth except the grave.”

[David48atTD]

3/5

3) Economic ruin

The international community was accused of being slow and ineffective when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.
This time, it upped the ante when Russia’s full-scale invasion began, with Western democracies imposing wide-ranging sanctions on key Russian sectors, businesses and individuals connected to the Kremlin or who support the invasion.

As a result, the Russian economy is expected to fall into a deep recession this year. The Institute of International Finance predicts Russia’s economy will contract by as much as 15% in 2022 because of the war.
It also predicted a decline of 3% in 2023 and warned in a note last week that the war “will wipe out fifteen years of economic growth.”

[David48atTD]

4/5

4) Europe is dropping Russian energy


The landfall facilities of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Lubmin, Germany, on March 7, 2021. The Ukraine war has accelerated Europe’s transition away from Russian energy imports and has made the $11 billion Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline redundant, perhaps for good.
Hannibal Hanschke | Reuters


The war has also accelerated Europe’s transition away from Russian energy imports, putting a large dent in the revenue the country gets from its oil and gas business.”?

It has also made the $11 billion Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline — designed to bring more Russian gas to Europe (and which the United States, Poland and Ukraine warned would increase the region’s energy insecurity) — redundant, perhaps for good.

[David48atTD]

5/5

5) Russia has united the West

During Putin’s 22 years or so in power, he has systematically and repeatedly tried to weaken and undermine the West, whether it has been interference in democratic processes in the U.S. (with the 2016 election) and Europe (with the funding of right-wing political groups) or serious incidents such as the alleged use of nerve agents against his personal and political enemies.

Lots more than I posted above @ Russia'''s Ukraine invasion has unintended consequences for Putin

[sabang]

China’s private firms see Russia as land of opportunity, up for grabs amid West’s exodus

• But experts say China’s state-owned enterprises are likely to remain cautious, worried about the potential diplomatic fallout of running afoul of Western sanctions on Russia
• Smaller businesses may be more likely to take the advice of China’s ambassador to Russia, to ‘fill the void in the Russian market’

From car parts to food and household cleaners, smaller private firms in China are seeking ways to capitalise on the “void” left by a mass exodus of high-profile Western brands from the Russian market.tlook for state-owned companies and banks is a little foggier.

Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine have sent the likes of Ford, Coca-Cola and other iconic brands heading for the exit in Russia. This has created opportunities for Chinese firms, despite warnings from the United States and its allies over providing assistance to help circumvent the various bans and restrictions imposed on Russia.

After seeing a number of car companies drop out of the Russian market, Li Dan decided to expand her company in Moscow to also make and sell car parts for American and European brands.


For years, she solely made and sold parts for Russian cars, but after Ford and Volkswagen were among those to exit the market, she came to the conclusion that Audi, Ducati, Skoda and Porsche might soon need to repair their cars in the country.


“The US and European cars in Russia will need repair at some point, and that will be a problem in the future,” Li said. “Those dealers who directly import cars or parts from the US or EU market – they will have to seek more stable cooperation from China from now on because of the sanctions.”


This will present an opportunity for Chinese brands to break into the Russian market, and some have already started, she added.

Soon after many Western brands announced their exits from Russia, Li received a promotion to buy a vehicle from Haval, which is owned by Chinese carmaker Great Wall Motors and specialises in crossovers and SUVs.


China’s ambassador to Russia has already urged Chinese traders in Moscow to seize the business opportunities arising from the crisis, and to restructure their businesses to “fill the void in the Russian market”, according to a Russia Confucius Culture Promotion Association post on its official WeChat account.



“Under the complex geopolitical situation, big corporations face a lot of hardships, or even cutoffs, in payment and supply chains,” Zhang Hanhui said during a meeting with local business representatives earlier this month.




We will … explore ways to work with Russian companies under the backdrop of the belt and road strategic developmentWang Chuanbao, Federation of Overseas Chinese in Moscow




“Now is exactly the time where private and small and medium-sized enterprises play a role,” the ambassador added. “The country is smoothing out all sorts of channels, especially in payment and logistics, and building new platforms.”


Wang Chuanbao, the president of the Federation of Overseas Chinese in Moscow, also told the Post that the gap left by Western companies in Russia has led to an imbalance of supply and demand, undoubtedly generating new business opportunities.

“But the sanctions this time around are more severe and expansive,” Wang added. “Chinese traders need to spend some time carefully considering ways to fill these industry holes and secure a place in Russia’s market.


“We will actively assist incoming Chinese companies in studying and collaborating with the Russian market, as well as explore ways to work with Russian companies under the backdrop of the belt and road strategic development.”


China’s trade with Russia could be boosted as smaller private Chinese firms look to fill the void left as many Western companies have pulled out of Russia. Photo: Getty Images


From car parts to food and household cleaners, smaller private firms in China are seeking ways to capitalise on the “void” left by a mass exodus of high-profile Western brands from the Russian market.

But the outlook for state-owned companies and banks is a little foggier.

Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine have sent the likes of Ford, Coca-Cola and other iconic brands heading for the exit in Russia. This has created opportunities for Chinese firms, despite warnings from the United States and its allies over providing assistance to help circumvent the various bans and restrictions imposed on Russia.

After seeing a number of car companies drop out of the Russian market, Li Dan decided to expand her company in Moscow to also make and sell car parts for American and European brands.


For years, she solely made and sold parts for Russian cars, but after Ford and Volkswagen were among those to exit the market, she came to the conclusion that Audi, Ducati, Skoda and Porsche might soon need to repair their cars in the country.



American and European cars in Russia will need repair at some point, and that will be a problem in the future,” Li said. “Those dealers who directly import cars or parts from the US or EU market – they will have to seek more stable cooperation from China from now on because of the sanctions.”


This will present an opportunity for Chinese brands to break into the Russian market, and some have already started, she added.

Soon after many Western brands announced their exits from Russia, Li received a promotion to buy a vehicle from Haval, which is owned by Chinese carmaker Great Wall Motors and specialises in crossovers and SUVs.



China’s ambassador to Russia has already urged Chinese traders in Moscow to seize the business opportunities arising from the crisis, and to restructure their businesses to “fill the void in the Russian market”, according to a Russia Confucius Culture Promotion Association post on its official WeChat account.



“Under the complex geopolitical situation, big corporations face a lot of hardships, or even cutoffs, in payment and supply chains,” Zhang Hanhui said during a meeting with local business representatives earlier this month.




We will … explore ways to work with Russian companies under the backdrop of the belt and road strategic developmentWang Chuanbao, Federation of Overseas Chinese in Moscow



“Now is exactly the time where private and small and medium-sized enterprises play a role,” the ambassador added. “The country is smoothing out all sorts of channels, especially in payment and logistics, and building new platforms.”


Wang Chuanbao, the president of the Federation of Overseas Chinese in Moscow, also told the Post that the gap left by Western companies in Russia has led to an imbalance of supply and demand, undoubtedly generating new business opportunities.

“But the sanctions this time around are more severe and expansive,” Wang added. “Chinese traders need to spend some time carefully considering ways to fill these industry holes and secure a place in Russia’s mar



“My company has been importing Chinese food and baijiu to Russia since 2014, and as the strategic partnership between China and Russia has continued to deepen, I have fully felt the expansive potential of Chinese food in Russia,” he said.

For Chinese businesspeople, the sinking rouble and inflation rising by as much as 30 per cent have also led to shrinking sales and revenues, rising lending rates and demands from Russian employees to increase pay.


In addition, as the West has cut off selected Russian banks from the Swift financial messaging system, many transactions can no longer be paid with US dollars and euros, which have been used in most trade transactions between China and Russia.


However, for Li, whose clients had been reluctant to switch to the Chinese yuan, the shift away from the US dollar has created an unexpected opportunity.

“We had been urging our clients to pay with [the yuan] for a long time because of the unstable exchange rates, but it never happened because the clients didn’t want to go through the trouble of opening new bank accounts,” Li added.

“But as our clients’ banks were sanctioned, they found banks that support [yuan] transactions right away, and our businesses returned to normal in about a week.”


However, these types of market opportunities resulting from the withdrawal of Western brands look to be limited to privately owned enterprises and small to medium-sized companies.

Large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China will remain wary of breaching Western sanctions, said Zhuang Bo, a China economist at investment firm Loomis, Sayles & Company.

“Chinese companies in some niche sectors will especially benefit from the EU and US leaving Russian markets, such as in auto parts, foods, medical supplies` and infrastructure components,” Zhuang said.

“The sanctions are here to stay, but big infrastructure projects must continue. The trade between the two countries will most definitely increase in size in the next couple of years, and the pace will pick up as well.”


China has been Russia’s biggest trading partner for 12 consecutive years, and bilateral trade between the two countries topped US$147 billion in 2021, up by 35.9 per cent from a year earlier, according to Chinese Ministry of Commerce data.

While Western pressure has been mounting for China to take a clear stand against Moscow, China has vowed to continue to do business with Russia under a strategic partnership that it says has “no limits”.

However, as the US and its allies are watching closely to stack evidence and are prepared to impose punitive measures should China take any action to support Russia’s war on Ukraine, Chinese SOEs will not risk violating sanctions by making inroads into the Russian markets, at least not conspicuously, according to Zhuang.

“Any Chinese bank with international business would be reluctant to approve account applications from Russians, especially multicurrency accounts. It is possible that some small banks with only domestic operations could develop a workaround as ‘specialist’ banks dealing with Russia,” he said.


“Companies are not actively looking to violate the sanctions,” Zhuang said. “Instead, they are trying to find covert ways to work behind the scenes.”

The smaller and privately owned companies with more flexible payment methods and logistics are the ones that could effectively take advantage of the window of opportunity, Zhuang added.

When asked about the role Chinese SMEs play in Russia, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said last week that “China and Russia have been cooperating in economics and trade on the basis of mutual respect and mutual benefits”, without elaborating on the ambassador’s meeting in Moscow.

“Overall, we are still in the early stage of development, and there won’t be anything game-changing happening in the short term,” Zhuang said.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-...ity-grabs-amid


To be expected really- but I'm a bit curious how India is going to respond to these, well, opportunities. Are we gonna see curry houses springing up in Moscow?

[sabang]

When danger reared it's ugly head, 'Brave Sir Bones' turned and fled -





LOL. Azov’s “hero” Art “Bones” Zalesov is online celebrating the arrival to Poland, says he is ready to start drinking.

What about the promise to bury comrade Kadyrov in pig’s skin? Is all this stuff to impress the gay crowd in Warsaw? Why not in Ukraine? What about coming to Mariupol to save your besieged battalion? Leading from (or through) behind??

https://therussianbear.quora.com/LOL-Azov-s-hero-Art-Bones-Zalesov-is-online-celebrating-the-arrival-to-Poland-says-he-is-ready-to-start-drinking?ch=8&oid=64277289&share=d1b9a4a6&srid=u6V Of&target_type=post