Ukraine war mega thread

[recon]

Continental European dependency on Russian energy is a problem they themselves chose to have and as such is there anything that can be done now
Surrender monkeys comes to mind. There are rats in NATO.

[sabang]

Oh, ex investment bankers know nothing about that 'arry. Obviously.

[harrybarracuda]

Oh, ex investment bankers know nothing about that 'arry. Obviously.

I can only assume in your case that's rhyming slang.

[HermantheGerman]

PCR's status as former Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury should not be confused with your status as an assistant secretary 'arry. Show some respect for your betters.

Why are you so hung up that he was a Assistant Secretary ?
Have you ever heard of former U.S. Presidents that where total failures?
Have you ever heard of former German Chancellors that have no morals?
Have you ever heard of........etc.......etc.......etc

Ohh, I have heard of (supposedly) a former Navy officers and investment banker that have completely lost his marbles.


A fancy title or a job description doesn't mean that you are total failure. (I hope that was simple enough,pardon my rotten english)

[Backspin]

Continental European dependency on Russian energy is a problem they themselves chose to have and as such is there anything that can be done now
Surrender monkeys comes to mind. There are rats in NATO.

Gas flowed to Germany all through the cold war. Germany does not see russian gas as a problem. It is cheap and plentiful. Germany financed 50% of Nord stream 2.

[Backspin]

[HermantheGerman]

The true face of Russia (still communist bastards ) can be seen clearly at the Olympics.

Olympics chief condemns Russian skater Kamila Valieva'''s treatment by entourage

First they dope a 15 year old girl and now they humiliate her. Some things never change.

Just want to make one thing clear.
This is what Putin and his System (call it what ever you want) made out of the Russian people. Sometimes I think Putistan is even worse then the former Soviet Union.
I respect the Russian people (might not always sound that way ).

Next month me and my wife are invited to a russian Birthday party again. There will be germans, real russians (not Volksdeutsche), jewish russians sitting at the tables. The conversations are of course very diverse and sometimes heart breaking. Sometimes I don't even say a word, just listen and suck up all the information/history they are giving to me. One thing that has moved me is what one person had to said to me on my last Birthday "Thank you for being a friend to our family for such a long time and we appreciate all the things you have done for us". This is the short version. Anyone who ever sat with real Russians at a table know, that when they raise a toast the speech is long and usually very moving. I was handed a gift which must have been in family possession for a long time.
The person who handed me the gift is going to be 91 year old next month, used to live in Moscow and worked in a Soviet Ministry Department.

Let's hope that there will be no War! These people deserve better.

[NamPikToot]

The Donbass will be able to hold its own for a good while. Putin won't do anything until he has to.

i thought it was all the western press and politicians spreading rumours but here you are, with your two mates. This false flag move was predicted weeks ago.

[recon]

Germany does not see russian gas as a problem. It is cheap and plentiful. Germany financed 50% of Nord stream 2.

That is pretty obvious. They don't see it as a problem either if Russians turn off the gas and force Germans to do whatever. Nice relationship.

Germany also closed down their nuclear reactors causing energy prices go up the roof now in the UK and rest of Europe because now Germans can't have enough energy and buy it from anywhere at any cost.

Nord Stream 2 is a lock Russia has on Central Europe now. Shame on the Danish govt who approved it on their soil, but maybe they are like Germans.

[harrybarracuda]

Continental European dependency on Russian energy is a problem they themselves chose to have and as such is there anything that can be done now
Surrender monkeys comes to mind. There are rats in NATO.

Why do people get another nic just to spout the same old bollocks?

[OhOh]

A video of the UNSC members and one invited resident of the eastern area, currently being shelled by Ukrainian soldiers assited by their foreign mercenaries weapons and ammunition.

3+ hours long.

Takeaway is a near 100% acceptance that the Minsk Agreements are the route to the resolution.
United Nations Security Council Meeting on Russia-Ukraine Situation

The U.N. Security Council met to discuss tensions between Russia-Ukraine. This portion begins with Sergey Vershinin, Russia’s Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, and includes remarks by Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

February 17, 2022

<span class="time">https://www.c-span.org/video/?518019...vading-ukraine

[harrybarracuda]

Takeaway is a near 100% acceptance that the Minsk Agreements are the route to the resolution.

I'm sure they would be if Putin could stop stirring the shit.

But he can't, and they aren't.

The resolution is for Putin to stop being a wanker.

[OhOh]

Moscow’s coercive diplomacy is working

February 18, 2022 by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR

"The upshot of the Russian response, transmitted to Washington on Thursday, regarding security guarantees may look as if the stalemate is heading toward a war. Moscow has rejected the US’ call for ‘de-escalation’ by pointing out that the Russian troops are deployed on Russian territories; it also rejects the threat of sanctions, which it says is a contrived attempt to “exert pressure and devalue Russia’s proposals on security guarantees.” Second, Russia is concerned over “the growing military activity of the United States and NATO directly near Russian borders, while our ‘red lines’ and core security interests, as well as Russia’s sovereign right to protect them, are still being ignored”.

Third, Russia believes that in order to de-escalate the situation around Ukraine,“it is fundamentally important” to implement an array of steps, including the halt of arms supplies to Ukraine, the recall of all Western advisers and instructors from that country as well as cessation of NATO countries’ joint exercises with the Ukrainian armed forces.
Finally, Russia reiterated that its demands for legally bound guarantees (stopping NATO’s expansion, refusing to use strike weapons systems near Russian borders, and returning the bloc’s military infrastructure in Europe to its status in 1997) are being ignored.

However, the latest word from Moscow is that negotiations will continue on European security issues although Moscow’s core demands have not been met. A meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is being scheduled for next week at a European venue.

This is a pragmatic decision. For Moscow, the secondary issues relating to issues of military security, arms control and strategic stability look generally solvable and could even be put together as an agreement. After all, these issues were originally Russian proposals, which Washington had previously ignored and is now willing to discuss.
For the US too, this is a realistic approach, since, after all, the development of hypersonic missiles by Russia has changed the strategic balance in the latter’s favour and there is no point deploying intermediate nuclear forces in Europe in the changed circumstances!
On the other hand, both superpowers sense the importance of good optics which can only create some gravitas for the political track in the near term that may help address the core issues.

Does it mean that the crisis has peaked? The point to be noted here is that the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine was never really there. However, below that threshold, a Russian intervention in Donbass region is a one hundred percent certainty if the Ukrainian forces launch an attack against the separatist forces.
The catch is, if Russian intervention takes place, all bets are off, because an entirely different dynamics might appear. Conceivably, Moscow will act with a scenario in mind to ensure that pending a durable settlement in Ukraine, the security of the millions of ethnic Russians (many holding Russian passports) will never again be in jeopardy, or held hostage by the right-wing neo-Nazi Ukrainian nationalist forces mentored by the Western intelligence who dominate Kiev.
Therefore, a Russian offensive westward upto the Dnepr River may become necessary to create a buffer zone. In fact, an evacuation of the elderly, women and children from Donbass to the Rostov region in southern Russia began today. The Kremlin has been ringing alarm bells in the past 48 hours that the possibility of an attack on Donbass is “quite real.”

It is from such a perspective that the Duma’s recommendation to President Putin to recognise the two breakaway “people’s republics” in Donbass needs to be viewed. Putin has said he doesn’t intend to act on it now. In reality, it gives underpinning for a Plan B in case conflict erupts in Donbass, or if the US gameplan is to bog down Russia in protracted negotiations, or if Washington remains obdurate vis-a-vis Moscow’s demands for security guarantee.

Washington has conceded some ground, though. Apart from showing readiness to discuss the issues of European security, the US has withdrawn its military advisors and trainers from Ukraine, Biden has committed that US will not militarily intervene in Ukraine even if it is attacked or faces defeat and surrender, and that US will not deploy missiles.
Russia’s coercive diplomacy seems to be working! Time is on its side because this is about national security and national defence, no matter what efforts that entails or how long they must continue. Contrary to western propaganda, Russian public trusts Putin’s judgment and leadership. There’s no dent in his public rating.
On the other side of the Atlantic, however, setting aside the usual bluster in the American propaganda, the political reality is that according to the latest CBS poll, 53% of Americans think US shouldn’t take sides in a conflict and 33% think Ukraine is simply not America’s business. And even American analysts concede that Russian economy has the capacity and resilience to withstand US sanctions.

Therefore, we may expect, as the noted Russian security analyst Fyodor Lukyanov told Kommersant paper today, “the next phase of the game of nerves may be a diplomatic one… On the whole, another phase of manageable tensions is to be expected.” But even here, the advantage lies with Russia.
For a start, China has given robust support to Russia and on Wednesday, called on Washington to “accommodate Russia’s legitimate and reasonable concerns over security and play a constructive role for all parties to seek a political settlement to Ukraine issue on the basis of Minsk-2 agreement, rather than hype up and sensationalise and escalate tensions.”
On the contrary, despite Washington’s tall claims that the US and European allies are moving in “lockstep” (to borrow Biden’s expression) and the 24×7 efforts by US officials to take the allies along, the picture that emerges is that the fault lines that have been there in the recent years in the western alliance system are surging and cracks are appearing due to the immense strategic burden of a confrontation with Russia, the spectre of a war in Europe and a massive refugee flow that will ensue, and all the attendant uncertainties for Europe’s post-pandemic economic recovery.

The stance of France and Germany, the two most important European players, must be causing anxiety in Washington. Both President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Moscow and held lengthy talks with Putin. Macron also showed his discontent over the US’ overlordship by telephoning Chinese President Xi Jinping on February 16.

Macron showered fulsome praise for the “splendid and successful opening ceremony” of the Olympic Winter Games and conveyed France’s full support for China’s “effort to make a success of the Olympic”!

Xi in turn complimented Macron that “since assuming the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU) this year, France has done a lot to enhance EU solidarity and strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy.”
Macron went on to pledge that “France will make all-out efforts to advance the positive agenda between the EU and China, and work together with China to ensure the success of the EU-China Leaders’ Meeting and push forward the development of EU-China relations.” The two leaders reached consensus over a six-point agenda for bilateral cooperation for the next stage.

Macron also took the initiative to schedule an EU-China summit meeting on April 1 against the backdrop of China’s deepening ties with Russia and amidst the war hysteria in the US over a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Reports have appeared that due to opposition from some European countries, Washington has had to drop from the sanctions package the s-called “nuclear option” — Russia’s exclusion from SWIFT payment mechanism, effectively cutting it off from the international banking system.

All these undercurrents in play put pressure on the Biden administration. While in Moscow, Scholz who had met Biden in Washington before that, affirmed publicly in the presence of Putin that so long as they remained in power in Berlin and Moscow, for all practical purposes, there is no question of the NATO admitting Ukraine as a member.

Put differently, so long as Russia regards Ukraine’s NATO membership as a casus belli, the alliance will not move in that direction. That is to say, unless Moscow changes it mind, there’s no NATO membership for Ukraine (or Georgia.)

We could be hearing the crunchy sound of ice cracking on the frozen lake."

https://www.indianpunchline.com/mosc...cy-is-working/

[OhOh]

H

Document confirms US told Russia NATO won’t expand

Putin was right, Stoltenberg was wrong: NATO “brazenly deceived” Russia about expansion and a British document proves it.

18 Feb, 2022 23:38

"A newly discovered document from March 1991 shows US, UK, French, and German officials discussing a pledge made to Russia that NATO will not expand to Poland and beyond.

Its publication by the German magazine Der Spiegel on Friday proves Moscow right and NATO wrong on the matter.

The minutes of a March 6, 1991 meeting in Bonn between political directors of the foreign ministries of the US, UK, France, and Germany contain multiple references to “2+4” talks on German unification in which the West made it “clear” to the Soviet Union that NATO will not expand past the eastern borders of Germany.

“We made it clear to the Soviet Union – in the 2+4 talks, as well as in other negotiations – that we do not intend to benefit from the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Eastern Europe,” the document quotes US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Canada Raymond Seitz.

Continues here"

Document confirms US told Russia NATO won’t expand — RT World News

[recon]

H

Document confirms US told Russia NATO won’t expand

Putin was right, Stoltenberg was wrong: NATO “brazenly deceived” Russia about expansion and a British document proves it.

18 Feb, 2022 23:38

"A newly discovered document from March 1991 shows US, UK, French, and German officials discussing a pledge made to Russia that NATO will not expand to Poland and beyond.

Its publication by the German magazine Der Spiegel on Friday proves Moscow right and NATO wrong on the matter.

The minutes of a March 6, 1991 meeting

The minutes of a March 6, 1991 meeting


That's a 30 years old document. Probably released after Secrets act didn't apply any longer.

World has changed since 1991.

[OhOh]

Putin’s Ukrainian Judo Revisited

For all those of you who think that Putin is a mystery wrapped in an enigma, perhaps you should avoid thinking and just read my articles!

"A bit less than a year ago, on April 18, 2021, I published an article titled “Putin’s Ukrainian Judo” which was reposted on ZeroHedge and TheSaker. I then translated it into Russian and published it on Aftersock.info where it was positively savaged for being defeatist. The reason I bring it up now is that in that article I explained that evacuation was the only winning move for the Russian side.

In that article I wrote:

The Ukrainian military has been massing troops and armor along the line of separation while the Russian military has pulled up its forces to their side of the border. Shelling, sniper fire and other provocations from the Ukrainian side are intensifying, with the hope of provoking the Russians into moving forces onto Ukrainian territory, thus allowing the collective West to shout “Aha! Russian aggression!” Then they could put a stop to Nord Stream II pipeline, scoring a major geopolitical victory for Washington and follow that up with plenty of other belligerent moves designed to hurt Russia politically and economically.

For the Russians, there are no good choices that are obvious. Not responding to Ukrainian provocations and doing nothing while they shell and invade the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk, killing Russian citizens who live there, would make Russia look weak, undermine the Russian government’s position domestically and cost it a great deal of geopolitical capital internationally. Responding to Ukrainian provocations with overwhelming military force and crushing the Ukrainian military as was done in Georgia in 2008 would be popular domestically but could potentially lead to a major escalation and possibly an all-out war with NATO. Even if militarily the conflict is contained and NATO forces sit it out, as they did in Georgia, the political ramifications would cause much damage to the Russian economy through tightened sanctions and disruptions to international trade.

Those being the obvious bad choices, what are the obvious good ones, if any? Here, we have to pay careful attention to the official pronouncements Putin has made over the years, and to take them as face value. First, he said that Russia does not need any more territory; it has all the land it could ever want. Second, he said that Russia will follow the path of maximum liberalization in granting citizenship to compatriots and that, in turn, the well-being of Russia’s citizens is a top priority. Third, he said that resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine through military means is unacceptable. Given these constraints, what courses of action remain open?

The answer, I believe, is obvious: evacuation. There are around 3.2 million residents in Donetsk People’s Republic and 1.4 million in Lugansk People’s Republic, for a total of some 4.6 million residents. This may seem like a huge number, but it’s moderate by the scale of World War II evacuations. Keep in mind that Russia has already absorbed over a million Ukrainian migrants and refugees without much of a problem. Also, Russia is currently experiencing a major labor shortage, and an infusion of able-bodied Russians would be most welcome.

Domestically, the evacuation would likely be quite popular: Russia is doing right by its own people by pulling them out of harm’s way. The patriotic base would be energized and the already very active Russian volunteer movement would swing into action to assist the Emergencies Ministry in helping move and resettle the evacuees. The elections that are to take place later this year would turn into a nationwide welcoming party for several million new voters. The Donbass evacuation could pave the way for other waves of repatriation that are likely to follow. There are some 20 million Russians scattered throughout the world, and as the world outside Russia plunges deeper and deeper into resource scarcity they too will want to come home. While they may presently be reluctant to do so, seeing the positive example of how the Donbass evacuees are treated could help change their minds.

The negative optics of surrendering territory can be countered by not surrendering any territory. As a guarantor of the Minsk Agreements, Russia must refuse to surrender the Donbass to the Ukrainian government until it fulfills the terms of these agreements, which it has shown no intention of doing for seven years now and which it has recently repudiated altogether. It is important to note that the Russian military can shoot straight across all of Donbass without setting foot on Ukrainian soil. Should the Ukrainian forces attempt to enter Donbass, they will be dealt with. Note that the maximum range of the Tornado-G system is 120km.

And should the Ukrainians care to respond by attacking Russian territory, another one of Putin’s pronouncements helps us understand what would happen next: if attacked, Russia will respond not just against the attackers but also against the centers of decision-making responsible for the attack. The Ukrainian command in Kiev, as well as its NATO advisers, would probably keep this statement in mind when considering their steps.

The Donbass evacuation should resonate rather well internationally. It would be a typical Putin judo move knocking NATO and the US State Department off-balance. Since this would be a large humanitarian mission, it would be ridiculous to attempt to portray it as “Russian aggression.” On the other hand, Russia would be quite within its rights to issue stern warnings that any attempt to interfere with the evacuation or to launch provocations during the evacuation process would be dealt with very harshly, freeing Russia’s hands in dispatching to God the berserkers from the Ukraine’s Nazi battalions, some of whom don’t particularly like to follow orders.

The West would be left with the following status quo. The Donbass is empty of residents but off-limits to them or to the Ukrainians. The evacuation would in no sense change the standing or the negotiating position of the evacuees and their representatives vis-à-vis the Minsk agreements, locking this situation in place until Kiev undertakes constitutional reform, becomes a federation and grants full autonomy to Donbass, or until the Ukrainian state ceases to exist and is partitioned. The Ukraine would be unable to join NATO (a pipe dream which it has stupidly voted into its constitution) since this would violate the NATO charter, given that it does not control its own territory.

Further sanctions against Russia would become even more difficult to justify, since it would be untenable to accuse it of aggression for undertaking a humanitarian mission to protect its own citizens or for carrying out its responsibilities as a guarantor of the Minsk agreements. The Donbass would remain as a stalker zone roamed by Russian battlefield robots sniping Ukrainian marauders, with the odd busload of schoolchildren there on a field trip to lay flowers on the graves of their ancestors. Its ruined Soviet-era buildings, not made any newer by three decades of Ukrainian abuse and neglect, will bear silent witness to the perpetual ignominy of the failed Ukrainian state.

History is as often driven by accident as by logic, but since we cannot predict accidents, logic is the only tool we have in trying to guess the shape of the future.

Rephrasing Voltaire, this, then, is the best that we can expect to happen in this the best of all possible worlds."

Putin’s Ukrainian Judo Revisited | ClubOrlov

[OhOh]

World has changed since 1991.

Very true but, agreements between countries, however they're worded, retain their factual statements.

Unless, as stated, "through bilateral agreements".

Which may or not have taken place, but to this day remain, "SECRET".

[OhOh]

A list, provided by wiki of "autonomous regions", can be found here:

List of autonomous areas by country

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia




Countries with at least one autonomous area

"This list of autonomous areas arranged by country gives an overview of autonomous areas of the world. An autonomous area is defined as an area of a country that has a degree of autonomy, or has freedom from an external authority. It is typical for it to be geographically distant from the country, or to be populated by a national minority. Countries that include autonomous areas are often federacies.^[1] The autonomous areas differ from federal units and independent states in the sense that they, in relation to the majority of other sub-national territories in the same country, enjoy a special status including some legislative powers, within the state (for a detailed list of federated units, see federated state)."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...eas_by_country

A few hundreds, it appears.

Two more is allegedly impossible, though, for some.

[recon]

I beg to differ, since these agreements were with politicians of no calibre and it's totally meaningless now as they never signed anything. That aside, how you think this is going to go now?

[NamPikToot]

^^ Does Germany speak for NATO?

[recon]

Don't get me started. Quick answer is no. Germany is a weak social basket case to NATO. They fail every year to comply even most basic NATO tasks. They have 7 aircrafts that can actually fly and only 2 or 3 have missiles to fight the enemy. They excercise with the Dutch in forest, and they have no guns because it might be dangerous, and then they get lost in the forest.

[Backspin]

Why do people get another nic just to spout the same old bollocks?

Who are you so sure that it is

[harrybarracuda]

That's a 30 years old document. Probably released after Secrets act didn't apply any longer.

World has changed since 1991.

Yes, and the countries that have joined since and want to join do so because of the threat from Putin's warmongering.

[harrybarracuda]

Putin’s Ukrainian Judo Revisited

For all those of you who think that Putin is a mystery wrapped in an enigma

I don't, I think he's a c u n t and the sooner someone double taps the fucker the world will be a better and safer place.

[Backspin]

i thought it was all the western press and politicians spreading rumours but here you are, with your two mates. This false flag move was predicted weeks ago.

That's what was said in 2008 with the Georgia war too. Until the investigation found the truth.

No. Donbass is not shelling itself