Ukraine war mega thread

[HermantheGerman]

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg pointed out another factor on Monday: the upcoming maneuvers of the Russian nuclear forces. This exercise is called Grom (thunder) and is usually held in October. Shortly before Christmas, however, it was announced that it would be brought forward to the beginning of the year. According to media reports last week, US intelligence coordinator Avril Haines informed members of Congress that the exercise should begin in mid-February. Moscow then usually tests ICBMs launched from submarines and from land, as well as shorter-range systems, all of which can be nuclear-armed in an emergency.
Allianz experts believe that Russia is using the maneuver to create a threatening backdrop to deter the West from intervening in a conflict with Ukraine. It was similar with the attack on Crimea in 2014. At that time, the Russians put their nuclear forces on alert. Strategic bombers patrolled the airspace near the country's western border. It was a signal that NATO understood, although it never considered militarily assisting Ukraine.

[HermantheGerman]

We....??

The educated and experienced.

[NamPikToot]

The LORDS troops hold military manoeuvrers, similar to many countries, either in their own country/international waters, or as invited honoured guests, elsewhere.

Were they? what about bombers overflying UK airspace, Naval maneuverers in Irish waters

[HuangLao]

The educated and experienced.

I see.
Though, might disqualify you and many others here.
Just sayin' -

[harrybarracuda]

The educated and experienced.

Well that excludes Jeff then.

[OhOh]

what about bombers overflying UK airspace

Within the UK's 12 mile limit, I suspect not. In international airspace, more likely.


If you have a link please educate us.

[OhOh]

Ukraine foreign minister urges people to ignore 'apocalyptic predictions'

Sun, February 6, 2022, 11:27 PM

"Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Sunday urged people to ignore "apocalyptic predictions" about an imminent Russian invasion, saying his country was strong and had unprecedented international support.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said a week ago Ukraine was not a sinking Titanic and accused Washington and media of fuelling panic that weighed on the economy when there were "no tanks in the streets".

"Today, Ukraine has a strong army, unprecedented international support and Ukrainians' faith in their country," Kuleba said in a tweet.

"The enemy should be afraid of us, not us of them."

A day earlier two U.S. officials said that Russia may be ready for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by mid-February as it had in place about 70% of the combat power it believed it would need and was sending more battalion tactical groups to the border.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday Russia could take military action "any day now" but could still opt for diplomacy.

"Different capitals have different scenarios, but Ukraine is ready for any development," Kuleba said.

EU Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said on Sunday the focus should be on diplomacy.

"We must help the NATO countries bordering Russia and strengthen them also from a military point of view," he said on Italian national broadcaster RAI.

"We must also be prepared for economic reactions and sanctions if there is a deterioration."

Russia has massed more than 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian borders, sparkling fears of a planned assault. Moscow has said it is not planning an invasion but could take unspecified military action if its security demands are not met.

Those include a promise that NATO will never admit Ukraine, a demand Washington and NATO have said is unacceptable."

Ukraine foreign minister urges people to ignore '''apocalyptic predictions''' | Reuters

Westerners beating a shrinking drum.

[OhOh]

Turmoil Will Continue Until a Modified Global Order Emerges

Alastair Crooke February 7, 2022

"Ukraine has morphed – unexpectedly – from the Washington perspective from an ‘useful distraction’ to becoming Biden’s dilemma.

“What will we do if the West does not listen to reason?”, noted Sergei Lavrov. “Well, the President of Russia has already said ‘what’ [it will do]”. “If our attempts to come to terms on mutually acceptable principles of ensuring security in Europe fail to produce the desired result, we will take response measures. Asked directly what these measures might be, he [Putin] said: they could come in all shapes and sizes”. Russia had previously announced that absent a satisfactory western response, then Russia would lay aside the language of diplomacy – and resort to unspecified “military-technical” measures – incrementally ratchetting pain on NATO and the U.S.

It is unlikely that Moscow ever entertained any grand illusions about their ‘non-ultimatum’ ultimatum. The documents were never intended ‘to lure’ the West into ad aeternam negotiations. The point is that Moscow had already decided to break in a fundamental way with the West. What is afoot is today is the manifestation of that earlier decision.

The crux of Russia’s complaints about its eroding security have little to do with Ukraine per se but are rooted in the Washington hawks’ obsession with Russia, and their desire to cut Putin (and Russia) down to size – an aim which has been the hallmark of U.S. policy since the Yeltsin years. The Victoria Nuland clique could never accept Russia rising to become a significant power in Europe – possibly eclipsing the U.S.’ control over Europe.

If they were not intended as a basis for negotiations, what then were Russia’s treaty drafts about? It seems that they were about Russia and China coming down off the fence. This is much more important than many appreciate. It marks the beginning of a period of rising tensions (and maybe clashes), until a modified Global Order emerges.
The ‘non-ultimatums’ primarily were intended to draw out, and make explicit in the public sphere, America’s refusal to concede the validity to Moscow’s point that its own security interests are of no lesser significance than those of Ukraine and Georgia; that one state’s security interests cannot be augmented at the expense of another (i.e. the indivisibility of security).

Making this clear to all is a necessary condition for a joint Russian-China shift to co-ordinated ‘military-technical measures’. It seems that shortly after Putin returns from his consultations with President Xi in China, we may begin to see what these military-technical measures might be. The Russian calculation is that in the run-up to the November ’22 midterms, the U.S. side will be increasingly nervous and internally vulnerable. Team Biden has no convincing rejoinder to the question asked by the electorate: ‘So, what is it that you guys got right this last year?” And so Biden badly needs a distraction from his inability to give an adequate reply.

Ukraine has morphed – unexpectedly – from the Washington perspective from an ‘useful distraction’ to becoming Biden’s dilemma. Initially, a major info-war campaign on an unprecedented scale was thought to create a reason for Europe and America to impose ‘Sanctions from Hell’ that would put paid to Putin’s supposed ambitions in Europe, and beyond.

This apocalyptic sanctions ploy had its roots in the 2014 era, when the then Crimea sanctions (wrongly) were believed to be so utterly catastrophic for Russia that Putin’s future would be poised in the balance, bringing the possibility that he could be ousted by pro-western oligarchs. (Such was the mistaken analysis given to Angela Merkel by her own Intelligence Services).

was so wrong: In 2014, Russia experienced only a mild recession (-2.2%), and in the event, its economy proved to be remarkably sanctions-proof, partly as a result of letting the Rouble ‘float’. This old meme of sanctions being the ‘neutron-bomb’ for Putin has been washed, rinsed and repeated by those (same old) Russia hawks – even though Russia’s economy is much more sanctions-proof today than it was in 2014. Thus the ‘Sanctions from Hell’ story has never held up; it is not credible.

The ‘imminent invasion’ frenzy perhaps, was thought by the hawks who seemed to have grabbed hold of the Washington ‘war narrative’, to be sufficient to goad Putin into military action – triggering these ‘Mother of all Sanctions’, or at the very least, a humiliating downsizing of the Russian forces adjacent to the Ukraine border:

Either outcome would easily have been presented as a ‘tough Biden’ successfully facing-down Putin and humiliating him. Earlier, U.S. think-tanks had rosily forecast that Putin was damned if he did; and damned if he didn’t take action over Ukraine. They were wrong. Essentially, Russia doesn’t want, or need Ukraine; there is no plan to occupy it.
It was firstly President Zelensky who unexpectedly did not co-operate with the U.S. plan. Instead of endorsing the threat of imminent Russian invasion, he claimed that invasion fears were overblown, and that the nervousness was bad for business, and the economy. Back at the time of the 2014 Maidan revolution, China had been promoting investment in Ukraine. Ditto today: Ukraine is reportedly on the brink of debt default, and has turned to China, looking for help.

This infuriated Washington: Julia Ioffe tweeted that the “White House and its Democratic allies have just about had it with President Zelensky. According to three sources in the administration and on the Hill, the Ukrainian president is by turns “annoying, infuriating, and downright counterproductive”. What is interesting is that these U.S. commentators’ principal moan was that Zelensky was not sufficiently attuned to domestic U.S. currents and narratives. There were rumours of a possible U.S.-led coup to replace Zelensky with a more compliant leader.

The invasion meme nonetheless is again being washed, rinsed and repeated: It continues life with a new allegation: this time that Russia is actively engaged in mounting a ‘false flag’ operation that would then justify a Russian invasion. This seemed so improbable that even normally compliant White House correspondents evinced utter disbelief.

And Washington’s problems just went on accumulating: the U.S.-orchestrated Security Council session was a débacle for Blinken: the ‘sanctions from hell’ have emerged as empty cymbals clashing, with fears taking hold that the sanctions would likely have hurt Europe more than hurt Russia; that they might even have provoked a global financial crisis. Reports suggest that the final nail was the Federal Reserve arguing that to expel Russia from SWIFT was a thoroughly bad idea.

And then, the second unexpected eruption for Blinken came: Europe (and NATO) far from being a resolute united front confronting Russia, clearly revealed their deep divisions.

Lavrov’s confirmation that the western responses to Moscow gave no basis for dialogue with the U.S. or NATO has an import which it seems has not been grasped. The crisis is not about Ukraine; as leading Russian journalist Dmitry Kiselyov noted: “The scale is much bigger”. It may, in the longer run, define Europe’s future as well as that of the Middle East.

It looks as if – even before the outcome of the Putin-Xi summit is known – Russia has already begun ‘coming down off the fence’, by which is meant, it is ready to dial up the pain for the U.S. and Europe slowly and deliberately on the basis that, if Russia’s concerns are ignored and dismissed, then Russia will ignore ‘yours’, too.

Russia clearly understands the geo-political and geo-economic pressure points that it controls. They can see that the U.S. does not want to raise interest rates, but has to. They can also see that they can force inflation far higher, inflicting significant economic pain. They can see that food prices are soaring, with potash from Belarus blocked, and Russia banning the export of ammonium nitrate.

The consequences for fertiliser prices – and therefore European food prices – is obvious, as is the consequence of European spot energy prices, were Russian gas to be barred from Europe. That is how economic pain works. The West slowly is discovering that that it has no pressure point versus Russia (its economy being relatively sanctions-proof), and its military is no match for that of Russia’s.

In the Middle East, a number of interesting developments have quietly taken place: Russia is mounting joint air-patrols with the Syrian Air Force over the Golan, and in the wake of Israel’s recent attacks on the port at Latakia, Russia has stationed its own forces there (meaning that Israel must stop attacking the port). Similarly, Israel recently complained to Russia that its’ blocking of the Global Positioning System (GPS) over Syria was adversely affecting Israeli commercial air traffic using Ben Gurion airport. The Russians replied, ‘Well, too bad’. And, in a forth blow to Israel, Russia has begun allowing Iranian planes carrying weapons supplies to land at the large Russian base in western Syria.

Is then, one military-technical action to block Israeli overflights of Syria? Might this also be a prelude to Russia enabling Damascus to regain control over the geographic extent of Syria – allowing the Syrian Arab Army to expel the jihadists from Idlib, and the Americans from north-east Syria, where they and their allies control Syria’s energy resources? The exodus of jihadis (some 2 million with dependents) would traumatise Turkish politics, damaging Erdogan’s re-election prospects, and terrify the Europeans with the threat of another migrant refugee crisis.

It looks like Russia has decided to come off the fence in other ways by inviting the new Iran president to Moscow and giving him full celebrity treatment: a one-to-one lunch with President Putin, plus a rare invitation to address the Russian Duma. This gesture, along with making Iran a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the recent joint naval exercise with Iran, Russia and China in the Gulf of Oman, indicate Iran’s coming-of-age in international affairs.

Washington likes to compartmentalise its geo-political relations, believing it can be emollient in the ‘one’ compartment, but highly aggressive in an other. Clearly this no longer holds in the Russia-China axis. Iran however, is in a real way, a part of this Axis. Is it feasible now, to expect an Iranian JCPOA agreement with the U.S.? Can both Russia and China be saying – so explicitly – that the U.S. denial of any security sovereignty to either Russia or China marks the end to dialogue with the U.S., and yet expect that Iran would reach an accord precisely on such reductive terms?

Finally, what is the connection (if any), between the Houthis’ continuing attacks on the UAE, in response to the U.S. and Israel interfering directly in the Yemen war, and the Russian military-technical action project?

The port of Aden, the Bab al-Mandib Straits and Socotra Island fall neatly into a vital component of the Cold War build-up between China and the U.S. The Arab ally (in this case, the UAE) that can control this essential strait will give the U.S. leverage by which to jeopardize China’s Maritime Silk Road, and concomitantly, to weaken the East Asian Economic Community. Hence the key role of the Bab al Mandab Strait is seen by some Washington circles as the justification enough for America’s continued support for the war in Yemen.

The Houthis are giving the UAE a bitter choice: Strikes on its cities or yield up the strategic asset of Bab al-Mandab and its surrounds. Iran and China will be watching attentively. Is a new geo-strategic paradigm emerging?"

https://www.strategic-culture.org/ne...order-emerges/

[Norton]

War broke out yet? No you say. Thought not. Back later for a check.

[OhOh]

Rabobank: You Just Saw History Being Made

(Allegedly written) By Michael Every of Rabobank Monday, Feb 07, 2022

"I have repeatedly stressed how ridiculous it is to look at US jobs data when they are just estimates of the small monthly delta of a very large number strained through an algorithm and seasonal adjustments. The ADP report saw a shock fall in jobs, then non-farm payrolls --whose methodology the ADP uses!-- saw a shock surge. Yet the adjustment was far larger than normal despite more unadjusted jobs lost as the Great Resignation continues and the working week shrinking. Worse, there were vast backward revisions for years. The million jobs created last summer now happened this winter. Economic history was just rewritten – and we are supposed to take it seriously.
Regardless, a Fed policy error is now baked in…unless what went up in January comes down equally stupidly in February right before the FOMC has to pull the trigger pointed at its own head. Yet how can they not when ultra-easy fiscal and monetary policy, against a backdrop of supply chains now offshore (because “it’s cheaper”), or dominated by oligopolies or monopolies (because “it’s cheaper”), ends up with everything being more expensive? The market response, based on the yield surge we are seeing so far, is going to be very messy.
.....

(8 more paragraphs)

....

Future historians will look back at the recent announcement of a Russian-Chinese alliance as a 21st century turning point. Markets would be wise to do the same, even as they focus on what is likely to be an historic policy error by central banks.'

Rabobank: You Just Saw History Being Made - ZubuBrothers

[OhOh]

The LORD and the President of France speak at a Press Conference after their meeting in Moscow.

Don't forget, a unanimous agreement of all NATO members is required, for any new European country to request and to be admitted into NATO.

1 hour long:

Here is the link:

[Backspin]

Macron breaks rank with the Anglo axis

Macron's suggested 'Finlandisation' or neutrality for Ukraine is probably the most important outcome of his trip to Moscow. He revealed it in chat with journalists on his plane over, not at the presser. Big implications for Ukraine & Europe more widely https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/ukraine-emmanuel-macron-en-premiere-ligne-face-a-vladimir-poutine-20220207

[Backspin]

[Backspin]

Here's an article from a source most lefties can get behind

Jacobin

The CIA May Be Breeding Nazi Terror in Ukraine

The CIA has been secretly training anti-Russian groups in Ukraine since 2015. Everything we know points to the likelihood that includes neo-Nazis inspiring far-right terrorists across the world.

Members of the neo-Nazi Azov Regiment take part in a march to mark the anniversary of the founding of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army in Kyiv in 2020. (STR/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

According to a recent Yahoo! News report, since 2015, the CIA has been secretly training forces in Ukraine to serve as “insurgent leaders,” in the words of one former intelligence official, in case Russia ends up invading the country. Current officials are claiming the training is purely for intelligence collection, but the former officials Yahoo! spoke to said the program involved training in firearms, “cover and move,” and camouflage, among other things.


Given the facts, there’s a good chance that the CIA is training actual, literal Nazis as part of this effort. The year the program started, 2015, also happened to be the same year that Congress passed a spending bill that featured hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of economic and military support for Ukraine, one that was expressly modified to allow that support to flow to the country’s resident neo-Nazi militia, the Azov Regiment.

[NamPikToot]

The LORD

you do realise those sprays you are using on the Durian are manifesting themselves.

[NamPikToot]

The Froggie dwarf is overreaching himself yet again, is this the best the EU can do whilst German is paralysed?

Ukraine crisis: Macron says Putin pledges no new Ukraine escalation

French President Emmanuel Macron has told reporters that President Vladimir Putin assured him that Russian forces would not ramp up the crisis near Ukraine's borders.

"I secured an assurance there would be no deterioration or escalation," he said before meeting Ukraine's leader.

However, Russia said any suggestion of a guarantee was "not right".

Russia has denied any plans to invade Ukraine, but it has assembled more than 100,000 troops near its borders.

US officials believe Russia has assembled 70% of military forces needed for a full-scale invasion.

Is Russia preparing to invade Ukraine?

The tensions between Russia, Ukraine and the West come nearly eight years after Russia annexed Ukraine's southern Crimea peninsula and backed a rebellion in the eastern Donbas region.

Moscow accuses the Ukrainian government of failing to implement the Minsk agreement - an international deal sponsored by Germany and France to restore peace to the east, where Russian-backed rebels control swathes of territory and at least 14,000 people have been killed since 2014.

Ukraine president wants 'concrete steps' from Putin

President Macron this week is on a diplomatic tour of national capitals trying to find a solution to the crisis in Ukraine. He arrived in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, on Tuesday after almost six hours of talks with Mr Putin in Moscow on Monday.

At a news conference with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, Mr Macron said there was now the chance to "make these negotiations move forward" between Russia and Ukraine, and that he could see "concrete solutions" to reducing tensions.

He also said there was a "shared determination" to implement the Minsk agreement. Any resolution to the crisis could take months, he said, but he repeated that Mr Putin had told him he would not be behind any escalation.

Mr Zelensky meanwhile said he expected "in the near future" there would be talks between Russia, France and Germany about resolving the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine.

But he called on Mr Putin to take serious measures to reduce tensions. "I do not really trust words, I believe that every politician can be transparent by taking concrete steps," he said.

more: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60299790

[OhOh]

The LORD

As I have said here on TD before.

The LORD - The Leader of the Russian Democracy.

[OhOh]

those sprays

Would you be so kind as to translate that?

I have found two definitions, admittedly from the same source:

SPRAY | meaning in the Cambridge English Dictionary

"a mass of small drops of liquid spread onto plants and crops, etc. from a special piece of equipment, or the piece of equipment itself:"

and

"a single small branch or stem with leaves and flowers on it:"

[OhOh]

French President Emmanuel Macron has told reporters that President Vladimir Putin assured him that Russian forces would not ramp up the crisis near Ukraine's borders.

"I secured an assurance there would be no deterioration or escalation," he said before meeting Ukraine's leader.

Don't rely on the monkey.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60299790

Listen and watch the organ grinder:

If you watch the video of the press conference I posted above, you will hear The LORD's explicit answer, that there is one possibility, of Russia using force.

Not just against Ukraine, but also all NATO members.

Where he also described the outcome to the journalist who asked that facile question.

"A facile remark or theory is too simple and has not been thought about enough:"

[NamPikToot]

^ He has also babbled about a "hot" war, the bloke is a narcissistic lunatic and is the biggest danger to Russia, not NATO or the West.

He is the only one mentioning Nuclear war and shuffling his warheads around, yet you still seem to think this is all perfectly reasonable - you are as nuts as him

[OhOh]

you are as nuts

Living with a Thai lady, you may have a point.

[NamPikToot]

^ maybe

[helge]

He has also babbled about a "hot" war, the bloke is a narcissistic lunatic and is the biggest danger to Russia, not NATO or the West.

Boris ?

Has he mobilized the gurkhas yet or has the outrage over Downing 10- partytime settled ?

Wag the dog, BJ, you fraud


All in a name

Yeltzin- Johnson.

At least there was massive election fraud when the russians "elected" their sick puppy.

Upper lip, anyone ?

Must be nice to be scottish these days.

[Backspin]

^ He has also babbled about a "hot" war, the bloke is a narcissistic lunatic and is the biggest danger to Russia, not NATO or the West.

He is the only one mentioning Nuclear war and shuffling his warheads around, yet you still seem to think this is all perfectly reasonable - you are as nuts as him

You really have some ass backward logic there.

Every country has national security red lines. Russia's biggest national security red line is Ukraine. And the US/NATO is trampling all over it. This isn't even supposed to happen in the nuclear era because of the theory of mutually assured destruction. But somehow it is. Thanks to the psychotic US state dept. Putin is mentioning nuclear war ? Umm , hello ?

Now Russia has no choice but to trample on US national security red lines and reciprocate in Cuba, Venezuela or both.

Speaking of moving nukes around, the US does this all the time.

The talk about US nukes in Poland proves that Warsaw trumps Berlin for Washington – Foreign Policy News

B-52 Bombers Fly Unprecedented Patrol Along Edge Of Russian-Controlled Territory In Ukraine (Updated)

[NamPikToot]

^ & ^^ Some has let the chimps out again and they are throwing their poo around.