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One wonders why this "preparation" has only just been announced?
UK Banks Told To Model Capital Controls, Bank Runs, 20% Devaluation | Zero Hedge
"To prepare for a possible Brexit, banks have stepped up wargames in recent days, modelling for extreme pressure on their cash reserves. With the encouragement of regulators, some lenders, including HSBC, have even run modelling for the imposition of capital controls, according to people briefed on the exercise.
Banks said regulators had demanded a stress test that modelled for a 20 per cent fall in sterling. Traders said the volume of derivatives being used as protection against steep declines in currency and equities had not been seen since the peak of the eurozone crisis in 2011.
The cost of hedging against big moves in the pound — as measured by the one-week sterling volatility — rose to 43.86 on Wednesday afternoon London time.
The good news: should Leave win, "Britain will not be Greece"
Despite the heightened sense of alert, bank treasurers said they were confident their balance sheets were robust, given that capital and liquidity buffers were many times higher than in the last financial crisis.Notably, even Europe seems to be admitting that "Plan B" did exist all along:
There were also signs some European leaders would be accommodating to the UK if it chose to leave. While Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, vowed there would be no further renegotiation with Brussels after a Leave vote, the head of Germany’s primary employers’ group said it would be “very, very foolish” to erect trade barriers with a Britain outside the EU.And finally...
Some senior financiers saw worrying echoes of the 2008 financial crisis. Lord Mervyn Davies, the former Standard Chartered chairman and Labour minister, said: “Everyone’s fearing a 2008 freeze of the wholesale markets. If that happens [the Bank of England] is going to have to step in as a buyer of all assets.”
Why would anybody believe a word the bankers, or the politicians who have consistently supported them, say?
They have been asked to stress test their own banks, presumably so the regulator has something to use - if required.
It's not particularly the test or the outcome it's the timing!
For those that beleive the bookies may have a better feel. Here is a comparison between the amounts bet the for leave and remain punters.
Apparently the remain voters bet higher sums per bet as compared to the remain voters who have many more bets but for smaller sums.
One way, again to "persuade" the betting voter?
Something Strange Emerges When Looking Behind The "Brexit" Bookie Odds | Zero Hedge
"Talking to CNBC, Shaddik quantified the latest odds, which not surprisingly, put Remain's chances of success some three times greater than those of Leave: "at the moment, the odds are suggesting there is a 76 percent chance the U.K. will vote to stay in the European Union", once again caveating that this is "despite the polls still showing this is more or less a dead heat."
But is that really the case?
When one looks at the actual dynamics within the bookies, an odd divergence emerges. As Shaddick said, when looking at the underlying flows determining bookie odds, there is a very clear divergence when it comes to number of bets versus the amount of any given bet: "Although Ladbrokes has received a higher volume of bets to leave the EU, those making a punt on remain were placing higher financially larger. Shaddick revealed the average stake on a bet to remain was £450, compared to £75 on a bet to leave."
In other words, a few large bettors are skewing the bookie odds dramatically in the favor of Remain, even as the mass of bettors is betting on Leave, albeit with smaller cash amounts. Another way of putting it: a substantially outsized influence by a wealthy minority over the poor majority, just like in every other aspect of life.
Moments ago Ladbrokes confirmed as much when it pointed out that while the probability of Brexit remains at only 24%, two thirds or 62% of all bets being placed today are for Leave, the same as yesterday."
Only if suicidal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bettyboo
It would appear from all the reading I have done on this that the main negative impact of a leave vote would be on bankers, large companies and investors (gamblers) on shares, bonds, currencies etc, in other words the rich and they are doing their best to influence a vote by scare-mongering.
So what would the impact of a leave vote be on the ordinary man, or woman on the street ?
at what level of income does ones status change from "poor" to "rich"Quote:
in other words the rich
is it just anybody with more money than the person making the statement, or is it an epithet based on envy.
it is not only the "rich" who have investments the stock markets.
anybody with a pension fund, i.e. most people are affected by the poor performance of stocks and shares.
the price of imports is dependant on the rate of exchange, i.e. the value of the pound.
the uk imports much more than it imports, foodstuffs, medicines, cars, oil, you name it, the uk imports it, and if the value of the pound falls then those exports become more expensive.
^^ birding; Bugger all, probably.
So if things go bad the banks want bailed out again, Bank of England, read taxpayers.Quote:
Originally Posted by OhOh
Should be putting these, born to be rich, no matter what they do against a wall, if banks and financial systems fail in this alleged global economy, then it's their money they gambled, not the taxpayers.
Tax, in this case rich means, the taxpayer will pay to keep you rich and powerful, no matter what.
What happens if it's a score draw?
^
same as always, the germans win on penalties
Poverty in the UK is generally defined as having an income 60% below the median income. There are, however, more specific definitions for social exclusion, relative poverty, and absolute poverty. You seem to only be aware of relative poverty. As for the last snide sentence in your post, it is neither. If you're genuinely interested, rather than just indulging in a desire to be smug or just looking for an opportunity to launch into one of your TV and Cigs rants, there is a vast amount of freely available and reliable information on poverty in the UK.Quote:
Originally Posted by taxexile
Quote:
Originally Posted by birding
Every British citizen who lives abroad or wants to go on holiday abroad will have to shell out £72.50 for a new passport as all current UK passports have "European Union" in shiny gold letters across the the top:rolleyes:
thanks for that bob, i was under the mistaken impression that anybody with a less than three 50" flat screen tvs in the house ( four if the householder is of the islamic faith ) is considered to be severely disadvantaged, classified as living in poverty and in urgent need of government help.
I'm sure that a 5 pence sticker to cover the 'European Union' would suffice, and would almost certainly be free. Hardly an issue to persuade 'Leavers' to become 'Remainers'.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrB0bQuote:
Originally Posted by birding
Every British citizen who lives abroad or wants to go on holiday abroad will have to shell out £72.50 for a new passport as all current UK passports have "European Union" in shiny gold letters across the the top:rolleyes:
Money well spent!Quote:
Originally Posted by DrB0bQuote:
Originally Posted by birding
Every British citizen who lives abroad or wants to go on holiday abroad will have to shell out £72.50 for a new passport as all current UK passports have "European Union" in shiny gold letters across the the top:rolleyes:
I always wanted one of those Black GB passports.
Cheers Bob, you voted yet?
Remember to take a pen because the fookers put pencils in the polling booths, i wonder why...
Blue.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chittychangchang
Twice!Quote:
Originally Posted by Chittychangchang
Glad you realised your mistake and it's good to know you'll be cutting down on the Sir Bufton Tufton Daily Mail style buffoonery in future.Quote:
Originally Posted by taxexile
Been watching BBC, CNN, TV5 France and just about any news agency I have. Hoping to get a feel for how the vote is going. The silence is deafening. Mum's the word until polls close. Didn't know there was such a law in UK. Live and learn.
Check the bookmakers later today, they will know the outcome.Quote:
Originally Posted by Norton
Are there exit polls? How quick will we get first glance? If it is really close, we may not know for a while. But will we know quickly if it really is that close?Quote:
Originally Posted by Norton
Have not followed british polls close enough to know, how it goes.
No bets taken today are there? :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by can123
Betfair 7.8
William Hill 5/1
Paddy Power 6/1
These are the odds for Brexit.
Lots of big bets for "Remain".Quote:
Originally Posted by Pragmatic
There are no exit polls because exit polls can only make predictions when compared against data acquired from earlier exit polls.Quote:
Originally Posted by Takeovers
This is only the 2nd referendum in over 40 years (and there was no exit poll in 1975) so there is simply no baseline data to compare an exit poll with. Exit polls are expensive and paid for by TV companies, the TV companies have decided not to commission one for this referendum as the lack of baseline data means any exit poll is guaranteed to be inaccurate.
Now thats what I mean by scare mongering.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrB0bQuote:
Originally Posted by birding
Every British citizen who lives abroad or wants to go on holiday abroad will have to shell out £72.50 for a new passport as all current UK passports have "European Union" in shiny gold letters across the the top:rolleyes:
You have first hand information on this of course. No way according to you could the present PP be used till it expires then the new one omits EU bit.
Huh? Exit polls simply ask folks how they voted. In any case announcing exit poll data before the poll close is illegal in UK.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrB0b
That's not how exit polls work, it's not that simple , the reasons why are easily found on the web so I'm not going to cut and paste here but basically it's because you can't trust everyone to tell the truth so other methods of verification are needed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Norton
Yes, it's illegal to announce the results of exit polls until after the polls close but that's not relevant to this referendum as there are no exit polls anyway
FFS, what's wrong with you people? Even if you can't recognise sarcasm when it's right in front at least try to learn what the little pictures used all over the internet mean. There was one at the end of my post. They're like writing but designed for morons who have problems with words, morons like you:rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by birdingNow thats what I mean by scare mongering.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrB0bQuote:
Originally Posted by birding
Every British citizen who lives abroad or wants to go on holiday abroad will have to shell out £72.50 for a new passport as all current UK passports have "European Union" in shiny gold letters across the the top:rolleyes:
You have first hand information on this of course. No way according to you could the present PP be used till it expires then the new one omits EU bit.
so basically a few thousands voters are going to decide everyone else ?
how sweet is direct "democracy ? :)
Good show Bob! Spoiling you ballet paper with an X in each box, couldn't make your mind up?Quote:
Originally Posted by DrB0b
What about private exit polls?Quote:
Originally Posted by DrB0b
A majority is all that is needed, so potentially only one vote will "decide".Quote:
Originally Posted by Dragonfly
(If we conveniently forget all the other votes)
All exit polls are for private media companies or the BBC and no matter who commissions them they have to comply with the rules. There may be some small polls of the straightforward "who did you vote for" going on but there are no national ones for this referendum as those who normally commission them are not willing to spend the money for something that, in this case, has a very high chance of being totally unreliable.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pragmatic
When I went to vote this morning there was nobody asking questions the polling station at all, normally there would be one or two pollsters and a small army of party bean counters asking for your voter number and who you voted for.
Tell me, what did the digitalspy post containing the link you found the passport pic at say? What did the thread say. Here's the link, btw, Old blue passports - General Discussion - Digital Spy Forums lSee the thread title? Follow on down to the discussion with the confused chap who thinks it's black?Quote:
Originally Posted by ChittychangchangGood show Bob! Spoiling you ballet paper with an X in each box, couldn't make your mind up?Quote:
Originally Posted by DrB0b
What do HMSO and the passport office say is the colour used on the pre-EU passport?
And, while we're at it
Reckon I've won that argument ;) Would you like to start one about the quality of colour reproduction on the screens of electronic devices:)Quote:
Originally Posted by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_passport#The_old_blue_passport
The Stock Market is at ease with gains.
Meaning : "NO BREXIT"
I guess we can close the polls. Decision has been made.
Betfair odds for Brexit have shortened to 6.2.
Looking like a bumper turn out.
Two more votes for Leave:)
Our ward is normally a 40-45% turnout, the people working at the polling station reckon the turn out today is double.
Btw they were all voting out.:)
Bob it's black not blue!