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Thread: Mitt Romney

  1. #1276
    Thailand Expat Boon Mee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by raycarey View Post
    the math just doesn't add up for willard.

    no, i'm not referring to his budget (but let's be honest, that math certainly doesn't add up either), i'm talking about the electoral college.

    with each passing day it's becoming more likely that romney won't win ohio or nevada...and if that' holds true, romney would have to win all of the following swing states to get to 270:

    virginia
    new hampshire
    colorado
    florida
    wisconsin
    north carolina


    it's possible, but not likely. which is why nate silver's got obama at ~70% right now.
    Part I: Obama optimism: why it is unfounded

    Nat Silver has been discredited. Heh, check out his invalid congressional projections from any of the elections.

    Personally, I'd choose to believe this guy:

    "A smart friend wondered today why Intrade still expects an Obama win even when the national poll numbers are slipping away from him. It’s a good question that I’ll attempt to answer in two parts. The first part is about why Obama optimism is unfounded.

    First let’s look at the Cook Partisan Voting Index in the chart below. I’ve arranged each state numerically by PVI from most Democratic Washington DC to GOP stronghold Utah. The third column is that state’s electoral votes. The last column is the running total of EV. (As an aside, since Colorado is the only state with a PVI of zero and its 9 electoral votes include the one that get either candidate to 270, this is why it is highly unlikely that a spread in the popular vote by much more than a point will present a situation where the overall vote winner doesn’t also win at least 270 electoral votes.)



    One of the primary sources of Democratic optimism springs from Nate Silver, a former sabremetrician and blogger. Four years ago he built a complex mathematical model that correctly predicted 49 of 50 state outcomes in the presidential race. From his higher perch now at the New York Times, he confidently predicts that Obama has a 73.1% chance of winning and that he is likely to take about 294 electoral votes. Read the comments on blogs both right and left; Democrats wield Silver’s predictions like a crucifix in front of a vampire of contrary poll results. The headline in today’s (London) Telegraph, for example, adoringly calls him “the geeky statistician who is singlehandedly dismantling the myth of Mitt-mentum.”

    The first crack in Silver’s statistical prognostications appeared in 2010 when his early projections significantly undercounted Republican gains in the House
    . Eleven days before the election he predicted that there was a 70% chance that Republicans would gain less than 60 seats. They won 63. That alone should be enough to remind observors that there shouldn’t be so much certitude about Silver’s 70% predictions a week and-a-half away from a vote.

    But there’s another problem with Silver’s model; and it’s a problem that a sabremetrician should most studiously attempt to avoid: It is based on the wrong statistic.
    Read the rest here how Nate Silver's got it wrong...
    A Deplorable Bitter Clinger

  2. #1277
    I don't know barbaro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by raycarey View Post
    the math just doesn't add up for willard.....

    with each passing day it's becoming more likely that romney won't win ohio or nevada...and if that' holds true, romney would have to win all of the following swing states to get to 270:

    virginia
    new hampshire
    colorado
    florida
    wisconsin
    north carolina



    it's possible, but not likely. which is why nate silver's got obama at ~70% right now.
    This is what I am very interested in right now, Ray.

    The numbers

    Your analysis is correct me thinks - my only question is of the polling. I presume the polling is fairly accurate as several polls are amalgated for an average. Some Obama leads are in the 1-2% range, which is within a margin of error.

    BTW, who is Nate Silver?
    ............

  3. #1278
    I don't know barbaro's Avatar
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    Boon,

    Thank you for the post ^^ above on Nate Silver.

    One math model was accurate, but later not as much.

    We shall see.....9 days away.....

  4. #1279
    Thailand Expat MrG's Avatar
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    Leave No Lie Left Untold...the Republican campaign strategy 2912.

    Quote Originally Posted by quimbian corholla View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Boon Mee
    Pretty impressive wouldn't you say?
    So impressive that Romney's campaign is now reduced to bad photoshops..

    Romney Campaign Exaggerates Size Of Nevada Event With Altered Image


  5. #1280
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boon Mee
    Nat Silver has been discredited
    No, he hasn't- and the sole reason you are saying that is because his figures (like the vast majority of Polls) predict a win for the other party than the one you happen to support. You know absolutely nothing about Nate Silver, his methodology or mathematical modelling. Neither do you know anything about statistics, group sampling, weighting etc. All you know is who you want to to win, and who you want to lose- therefore, any poll, article or commentator that agrees with you is an 'expert', any that doesn't wrong and a 'dumbo'. Real high brow stuff booner.
    Last edited by sabang; 28-10-2012 at 05:59 AM.

  6. #1281
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    ^ This is the best post I have read in sometime. As a Baseball fan (the birthplace of sabermetrics and the place that Nate Silver got his start) and gambler I know the true value of sabermetrics they are an invaluable tool in forecasting baseball. The math does not lie. Plain and simple.

    I would pay attention to the people who set the betting odds for a living with regards to who is going to get elected before I would listen to some lardass rightwing blogger. The odds makers have Obama as the heavy favorite. See;

    Presidential election odds: Barack Obama still a big favorite over Mitt Romney - Linemakers - Sporting News

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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub
    would pay attention to the people who set the betting odds for a living with regards to who is going to get elected before I would listen to some lardass rightwing blogger.
    For sure, the best guide for politics is to block out the noise and look at a liquid betting market. Only right now, it's about -200, +200 with the vig taken out of the moneyline, Obama favourite. I wouldn't call this a heavy favourite though. Not for politics.

    It would be something like a candidate with 55%+ in the polls is about a 90%+ shot to win the election. The betting odds suggest that if this election was run 3 times, Obama wins twice, Romney once.

  8. #1283
    Thailand Expat Boon Mee's Avatar
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    15,000 at Romney's rally in Land O'Lakes, Fla., per fire marshal via campaign. One of Romney's largest events to date.





    Mitt Romney draws 15,000 in Land O’ Lakes, Florida | Twitchy

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    Huge: Des Moines Register Endorses Mitt Romney



    First time they have endorsed a Republican for president since 1972.

    Ten months ago this newspaper endorsed former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination for president. An overarching consideration was which of the party’s candidates could we see occupying the White House, and there was no question that Romney was qualified for the job.


    Now, in the closing days of the general election campaign, the question is which of the two contenders deserves to be the next president of the United States.
    Both President Barack Obama and Governor Romney are superbly qualified. Both are graduates of the Harvard University Law School who have distinguished themselves in government, in public service and in private life. Both are devoted husbands and fathers.


    American voters are deeply divided about this race. The Register’s editorial board, as it should, had a vigorous debate over this endorsement. Our discussion repeatedly circled back to the nation’s single most important challenge: pulling the economy out of the doldrums, getting more Americans back in the workforce in meaningful jobs with promising futures, and getting the federal government on a track to balance the budget in a bipartisan manner that the country demands.
    Which candidate could forge the compromises in Congress to achieve these goals? When the question is framed in those terms, Mitt Romney emerges the stronger candidate.


    The former governor and business executive has a strong record of achievement in both the private and the public sectors. He was an accomplished governor in a liberal state. He founded and ran a successful business that turned around failing companies. He successfully managed the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City.


    Romney has made rebuilding the economy his No. 1 campaign priority — and rightly so.

    Des Moines Register endorses GOP's Mitt Romney

  10. #1285
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    The popular vote is certainly close. As usual the swing states will determine- and it is here that Romney needs a bounce. I imagine it will be pretty frantic in Ohio etc in the next ten days. I was a bit surprised to learn that the largest winning vote since records were kept was LBJ, at 62%. Seems Potus races are all pretty close really.

    ^ Chicago Tribune just endorsed Obama, only the second time they've endorsed a dem.

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    Thailand Expat Boon Mee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Chicago Tribune just endorsed Obama, only the second time they've endorsed a dem.
    Hometown boy - what did you expect?

    btw, seen the latest:

    AP is reporting 150 gunman took part in the Benghazi attack, and Brietbart is reporting that US had 2 drones and 1 AC-130 gunship on task during the attack. Drudge is reporting that Obama's job approval has dropped 7 pts in 3 days.

    The Chicago Tribune may have to reconsider that endorsement.


  12. #1287
    Pronce. PH said so AGAIN!
    slackula's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boon Mee
    Nat Silver has been discredited. Heh, check out his invalid congressional projections from any of the elections.
    As no doubt you're fully aware, the cumulative probability of guessing 49 out of 50 coin tosses correctly, which is what this is disputing Silver's 2008 prediction was, is 1/8.881784197001E-16.

  13. #1288
    Thailand Expat Boon Mee's Avatar
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    Leadership: Romney Uses Campaign Bus to Deliver Hurricane Relief



    The Romney campaign has canceled campaign events, commercials, and fundraising appeals in states that will be impacted by Hurricane Sandy, and is instead using a campaign bus to help deliver supplies to those who will be impacted by what forecasters are predicting may be a "storm of the century."


    What's Obama Gonna Do? Call Out Big Bird?

    Heh, in fact informed sources have Obama in his 'bunker' attempting to stonewall the Bengazie-Gate information that is leaking out before the voters. Rots a Ruck!

  14. #1289
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    Aren't you supposed to deliver hurricane relief supplies after a hurricane?
    Which informed sources have Obama in his bunker, and where exactly is his bunker?

  15. #1290
    Thailand Expat Boon Mee's Avatar
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    ^
    Down in the bowels of Big White? His secret bunker wouldn't be too secret if folks like you and me knew where it is.

    BTW, some good news depending on your point of view:

    Ohio Gov. John Kasich declared Sunday that GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney is now poised to beat President Barack Obama in his critical battleground state.

    Appearing on NBC's “Meet the Press,” Kasich cited internal campaign polling that shows Romney with a lead in The Buckeye State.

    Kasich Predicts Romney Wins Ohio

  16. #1291
    Pronce. PH said so AGAIN!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boon Mee
    Leadership: Romney Uses Campaign Bus to Deliver Hurricane Relief
    Funny that, Romney said in the primaries that FEMA should be shut down and responsibility given to the states:

    Mitt Romney In GOP Debate: Shut Down Federal Disaster Agency, Send Responsibility To The States

    From the link: Mitt Romney was asked, in the context of the Joplin disaster and FEMA's cash crunch, whether the agency should be shuttered so that states can individually take over responsibility for disaster response. "Absolutely," he said. "Every time you have an occasion to take something from the federal government and send it back to the states, that's the right direction.

    UPDATE: "Gov. Romney wants to ensure states, who are the first responders and are in the best position to aid impacted individuals and communities, have the resources and assistance they need to cope with natural disasters," the Romney official said.


    Huh? So in other words, kill FEMA and stop Federal aid.... until it's needed, and then, what? Reopen it? And then shut it down again? LOL at the logic of these fools.

  17. #1292
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    can anyone shed some light on the 'Sacred Underpants'
    that the mormans wear.
    male and female underpants are the same
    apparently Romney wears them and
    is it true that Romney was once a bishop ?
    this is worryin,

  18. #1293
    Thailand Expat AntRobertson's Avatar
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    Bloomberg News: Romney ‘rented’ Mormon church’s exemption to defer taxes for 15 years

    By David Edwards
    Monday, October 29, 2012 15:08 EDT


    Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney used a loophole to “rent” the Mormon church’s tax exemption status and defer paying taxes for 15 years, according to a new report.

    Tax returns obtained by Bloomberg News through a Freedom of Information Act request indicated that Romney set up a charitable remainder unitrust (CRUT) in June 1996 just before Congress cracked down on the loophole in 1997.

    “In this instance, Romney used the tax-exempt status of a charity — the Mormon Church, according to a 2007 filing — to defer taxes for more than 15 years,” Bloomberg’s Jesse Drucker explained. “At the same time he is benefitting, the trust will probably leave the church with less than what current law requires.”


    Estates lawyer Jonathan Blattmachr told Bloomberg that Romney’s trust benefits from the Mormon church’s exempt status because charities don’t pay capital gains taxes when they make a profit from the sale of assets.

    “The main benefit from a charitable remainder trust is the renting from your favorite charity of its exemption from taxation,” Blattmachr said, adding that the charitable contribution “is just a throwaway” and the church would receive little if any financial benefit from the trust.

    “I used to structure them so the value dedicated to charity was as close to zero as possible without being zero,” he pointed out.

    The CRUT allows individuals to “defer capital gains taxes on any profit from the sale of the assets, and receive a small upfront charitable deduction and a stream of yearly cash payments,” Drucker wrote. “Like an individual retirement account, the trust allows money to grow tax deferred, while like an annuity it also pays Romney a steady income. After the funder’s death, the trust’s remaining assets go to a designated charity.”

    In fact, the amount available to go to the Mormon church has decreased from at least $750,000 in 2001 to $421,203 at the end of 2011 as Romney has collected yearly cash payments from the trust.

    The Romney campaign declined to answer questions about the trust but insisted that it was “operated in accordance with the law” in an email to Bloomberg.


    The trust represents a small fraction of Romney’s more than $250 million fortune and is only one of several methods the formal Bain Capital CEO has employed to avoid paying taxes.

    Earlier this year, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), who is also a Mormon, had suggested that the Republican presidential nominee refused to release his tax returns because he had not paid any income taxes over a 10-year period.

    In a September speech on the Senate floor, Reid said that leaked tapes insulting the 47 percent of Americans who don’t pay income taxes as “dependant” on the government have gave the world a “rare look at the real Mitt Romney.”

    “For all we know Mitt Romney could be one of those who have paid no federal income tax. Thousands of families making more than a million dollars per year pay nothing in federal income tax,” the Nevada Democrat observed. “Is Mitt Romney among those? We’ll never know because he refuses to release his tax returns.”

    “We know that Mitt Romney pays a lower tax rate than middle-class families, thanks to a number of things he’s done: Swiss bank accounts, Cayman Islands tax shelters. And we can only imagine what new secrets would be revealed if he showed the American people a dozen years of tax returns like his dad did.”

    Reid noted that most of “those people” who Romney talked about “are not avoiding their tax bills using Cayman Islands tax shelters or Swiss Bank accounts like Mitt Romney. Millions of the 47 percent are seniors on Social Security, who don’t have Bain Capital retirement funds or inherited stock to fall back on.”
    Bloomberg News: Romney ‘rented’ Mormon church’s exemption to defer taxes for 15 years | The Raw Story

    Another view into the self-entitled world of Mitt Romney.

  19. #1294
    Thailand Expat Boon Mee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by billy the kid View Post
    can anyone shed some light on the 'Sacred Underpants'
    that the mormans wear.
    male and female underpants are the same
    apparently Romney wears them and
    is it true that Romney was once a bishop ?
    this is worryin,
    Why is that worryin (sic)?

    He's an honorable man with good family values which the Hollywierd crowd for example revile. Sad fucks...

  20. #1295
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boon Mee
    He's an honorable man with good family values which the Hollywierd crowd for example revile. Sad fucks...
    Lot's of Nazis had nice pretty families with good family values. What the fuck difference does it make?

  21. #1296
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    Quote Originally Posted by Humbert View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Boon Mee
    He's an honorable man with good family values which the Hollywierd crowd for example revile. Sad fucks...
    Lot's of Nazis had nice pretty families with good family values. What the fuck difference does it make?
    Absolutely nothing whatsoever of course.

    And in my experience those who pontificate on things such as "family values" are precisely the same people that lack them.

  22. #1297
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    A Fascinating documentary about Mitt Romneys family. Yes all the good stuff is there like polygamy, incest, and even a serial killer. Most Americans have no clue that Mittens family is from Mexico.


  23. #1298
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    it would be interesting to know what percentage of people who cast a ballot for romney next week are really just voting against the president.

  24. #1299
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    ^I think a lot of people may be voting for Romney as a way to break the gridlock in congress. They think that Obama may be unable to get anything accomplished in a second term. They are willing to take the risk that breaking the gridlock by any means is more important than policy.

  25. #1300
    Thailand Expat MrG's Avatar
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    Sorry to disagree, but a lot of Americans are going to vote against Obama, not for Romney.

    Part of it's racial, and if you don't believe that all you have to do is listen to the dog whistles on this board.

    But if Obama were to lose a lot of it would be because people have lost sight what's good for them. This would be especially the case if women turn en mass against Obama, and if the young and middle aged vote themselve out of Medicare and Obama Care in exchange for limited vouchers payable to insurance companies. Stupidity like this is not unheard of in American politics. We've done dumber things and gotten a crowd around them to support it, but something as dumb and empty as Romney so close to the catastrophe his neo-bretheren brought us...? Another empty suit in the hands of the NeoCon puppet masters on his staff. It's frightening to consider the consequenses.

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