Thread: Rubber trees 101

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Selling on line is good for postal amounts, but money is in container loads.

Are ther not business to business web auction sites rather than the retail end?

Originally Posted by ltnt

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

One day, long after my lifetime the world will have to get round to figuring out how to feed a population explosion, and insects will be one of the ways forward. the BBC ran a big documentary on this very subject a couple of years ago.

Soilent Green Guzzie....

Business sites for commodities reflect this market, "rubber," to be flat well into 2020's...as I've posted its web site before. Again as stated by the BP's writer and sources that rubber follows the price of oil...@ 50% of what it was I figure with Iran due to start commercially producing into the OPEC market soon, that $47/barrel oil may be dropping to $30/barrel or lower. Synthetic rubber will consume the market place contrary to Jim's reports. As oil goes so goes the price of tires...down, down, down.

New market here "oil palms." Newest pump job by the unelected government...forget it. Oil glut spells doom for oil palm business. Idiots!

They're rather behind the trendy times - attempting to climb aboard the bandwagon when it's long passed.

itni wrote:
"... Again as stated by the BP's writer and sources that rubber follows the price of oil..."


that may have been true many years ago but i seem to recall that the price of latex came down a long long time before oil did. i can't see, and haven't seen a correlation between the two for well over 2 years.

^Due to oversupply initially now due to available syn. rubber at less cost as well continued oversupply of raw rubber...I stand corrected utr...

Originally Posted by piwanoi

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

I've seen with my own eyes a fair load of 5-7 year old trees being cut down here locally, and being sold for paper mills rather than lumber for furniture. 10 wheelers nearly every day drive past my house loaded with sawn off rubber trees. At some point soon, the supply/demand thing has got to even out. As for new rubber going in, not much up here, and people are truly daft elsewhere if that is their new crop of choice. Missus was out and about a couple of weeks ago, and where there was a nice 30 odd rai of 7 year old trees, now all gone. replaced with cassava and sugar. Don't think Isaan farmers are as daft as some posters on here like to claim.
And another thing, whats wrong with ant eggs? Ever tried 'em? Got just about every nourishment that a human needs. Re bugs, grubs, and crickets. One day, long after my lifetime the world will have to get round to figuring out how to feed a population explosion, and insects will be one of the ways forward. the BBC ran a big documentary on this very subject a couple of years ago.

So in effect that's 7 years of waiting for the trees to produce totally wasted ?, surely the price received for the timber or the promised Government subsidy cannot make up for that?

Correct.

Originally Posted by ltnt

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

One day, long after my lifetime the world will have to get round to figuring out how to feed a population explosion, and insects will be one of the ways forward. the BBC ran a big documentary on this very subject a couple of years ago.

Soilent Green Guzzie....

Business sites for commodities reflect this market, "rubber," to be flat well into 2020's...as I've posted its web site before. Again as stated by the BP's writer and sources that rubber follows the price of oil...@ 50% of what it was I figure with Iran due to start commercially producing into the OPEC market soon, that $47/barrel oil may be dropping to $30/barrel or lower. Synthetic rubber will consume the market place contrary to Jim's reports. As oil goes so goes the price of tires...down, down, down.

New market here "oil palms." Newest pump job by the unelected government...forget it. Oil glut spells doom for oil palm business. Idiots!

Only thing wrong in the above statement is the price of tires. Yes, rubber price is down, but i'm not seeing the price of tires coming down. The average consumer (billions of them) does not realise that the price of rubber has collapsed from 4 years ago. I doubt the tire manufacturers want people to know too.

Hey Guzzi ,I don't know were you originate from, but if you are from the UK you may remember the signs they used to post in fish and chip shops ,like due to months of inclement weather potatoes have gone up in price so sadly we have to raise the price of chips ,but when there was a glut of spuds the price of chips stayed as they was and never went down

Originally Posted by ltnt

New market here "oil palms." Newest pump job by the unelected government...forget it. Oil glut spells doom for oil palm business. Idiots!

Comparing palm oil prices to oil prices, is like comparing corn prices to oil prices, corn can be used for ethanol.
Palm oil is mostly used for foods and need is predicted to double by 2020, hungry world out there.
Can't cook with crude oil or use it in food production etc different market.

Originally Posted by ltnt

Business sites for commodities reflect this market,

I was thinking more made in Thailand rubber derivatives, rather than bulk rubber.

^Yea, but if your a producer of tires in Thailand you need a market thats not already covered by other producers. China seems to be owner of most tire production companies these days and just bought out Pirrelli...I think it would be a pretty slim to none market for a company from Thailand.

They would need to export...cost factors...as for palm oil Jim, loads used in fuel these days, check out Malaysia not all synfuels are corn fed.

Surely Thailand doesn't import rubber bands! There must be millions used every day.

Originally Posted by ltnt

^Yea, but if your a producer of tires in Thailand you need a market thats not already covered by other producers. China seems to be owner of most tire production companies these days and just bought out Pirrelli...I think it would be a pretty slim to none market for a company from Thailand.

They would need to export...cost factors...as for palm oil Jim, loads used in fuel these days, check out Malaysia not all synfuels are corn fed.

Indeed Itnt , dozens of articles were palm oil is being processed into bio diesel ,this being just one of them Transport & Biofuels | Sustainable Palm Oil Platform

I remember when the Australian government was subsidising grape growers to rip out their worthy old shiraz and grenache vines, and replace them with the then 'new and trendy' chardonnay grape. Those that didn't, such as Rob from Rockfords, reaped the rewards for their patience. In the Barossa, especially, were some of the best old shiraz & grenache vines in the world- old vines produce a concentration of fruit that cannot be matched by young vines, but neither do they yield as much.

More recently, I remember driving around the Riverland area in SA, wih hundreds of tons of oranges just left on the trees to rot- because it was not even worth picking them. Due to a new trade rule you see, it was much cheaper for juice producers to import 44 gallon drums of orange juice concentrate from Brazil, and produce an inferior product. Sigh. But on the bright side, we were free to pick all the fresh oranges we wanted (for free- nobody around), take them home and juice them- and we did.

Agriculture, 'of the soil', 'back to nature' and all that be damned- it is just as loony as every other industry. I have come to respect the French, and their understanding of "terroir" and what it is really all about. It is the food we eat- shouldn't that be special?

Originally Posted by OhOh

Surely Thailand doesn't import rubber bands! There must be millions used every day.

Thailand does make rubber bands, but unlike India, it's heavily regulated.
India has lots of small cottage type rubber band makers, Thailand has a few large rubber companies that control rubber product and production.

As said, it's not expensive to set up rubber band making. but getting a license and finding buyers in a closed shop environment is expensive.

I have an open rubber license and can make rubber bands, but I would need to package, brand and find buyers, that's not easy when the market is controlled by a few big rubber houses.

As to palm oil, 1 in 10 supermarket products contain palm oil, bio fuel is a dream of high oil prices.
As China, India etc move over to processed foods, more and more,palm oil will be needed, it's the cheapest food oil.

Oil prices will rise, heard it all in 2009, then it was going to be almost free, same as rubber, game over.
Biggest threat to rubber is labor costs, in the long term. Malaysian rubber is finished, labor costs are high already, Indian workers are leaving the plantations in droves.

The world is in a financial crises, things may get worse before they get better, but the roads are not empty and car sales are up.

We have started opening up trees and looks like we will make it to another season, even at 15 baht a kilo we will live.

It's life and better then being laid off from a job with a mortgage and bills to pay.

Sold some cassava today, not good, but have a few beers to drink tonight.

Of course we can go on and and on about the rubber trade here in Thailand with quotes from this source or the other , the sad truth of it all is the rubber trade is well and truly fucked for the for seeable future , you can tap in the full moon at a certain lucky day but sadly the end result is just the same ,ain't that right Itnt

It may be fcuked Pi but I don't see people felling, and clearing, the defunked trees out. May be they're all waiting to see who jumps first?

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

It may be fcuked Pi but I don't see people felling, and clearing, the defunked trees out. May be they're all waiting to see who jumps first?

Neither have I ,and of course this may be the case but according to Guzzi in his post 1099 10 wheeler's are going past his place loaded with sawn down rubber tree's on a regular basis ,so it would appear that quite a few are "jumping" already

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

Originally Posted by piwanoi

Guzzi in his post 1099 10 wheeler's are going past his place loaded with sawn down rubber tree's on a regular basis

I think him mistaken in that those trucks are full of Eucalyptus trees on their way to 'Double A', or the likes, pulping mills.

Again could well be but surely he ain't mistaken about the 30 rai of 7 year old rubber tree's they felled and replaced with Sugar cane and Cassava

Originally Posted by piwanoi

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

Originally Posted by piwanoi

Guzzi in his post 1099 10 wheeler's are going past his place loaded with sawn down rubber tree's on a regular basis

I think him mistaken in that those trucks are full of Eucalyptus trees on their way to 'Double A', or the likes, pulping mills.

Again could well be but surely he ain't mistaken about the 30 rai of 7 year old rubber tree's they felled and replaced with Sugar cane and Cassava

30 rai of rubber.
That's considerable.

I must be wrong then. Sorry.

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

I must be wrong then. Sorry.

Personally I would think its safe to deduce that Guzzi knows the difference between Rubber and Euca trees , theres a German guy here who I was only talking to last night who has over 60 rai of mature tree's who is not tapping this season the reason being is that labour and other costs is more than he could get for his rubber ,mind you it can't be as bad as rice farming with over 20 suicides due to mounting debts through the ill fated (for some)rice scheme .

According to this article dated Aug 2014 this present administration intends to pursue the policy of felling 350,000 rubbers trees a year ,and faced with losing money by not tapping or other reasons if they recieve a good grant for doing so ,I see no reason to doubt that Guzzi's post carrys some credence UPDATE 1-Thai govt to aim for rubber supply cut to support prices | Reuters