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Global and Chinese Natural Rubber Industry Report, 2014-2018
Interesting read, not enough rubber being produced, another report has very dry weather in rubber producing countries dropping output even more.
2 brand new sheet rubber factories have opened up, one 60 km north of me, Lao border and the other 70 km south west, Cambodia border.
Big investments, so someone thinks things will be picking up.
Nice to read that there could be light at the end of the tunnel Jim .Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Unfortunately as a lot of Thai farmers live hand to mouth it may not happen quickly enough.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Rubber is a bit different to rice, cassava or any seasonal crop.Quote:
Originally Posted by OhOh
It's a weekly wage for most of the year, 10 rai or more and even at bad prices they drive new cars.
Most will have a rice crop as well, food covered, no rent or mortgage, so income from the rubber is expendable.
Rubber, family farmers do ok, it's the bigger guys that complain the most, they are employers, low prices cut into profits.
[quote=jamescollister;3097019]Possibly for a land owner who has capital to survive.Quote:
Originally Posted by OhOh
I see the "workers" driving off at night riding well used motor bikes. Not so much now as many rubber farms appear to be abandoned/dormant. The "workers", with no weekly wage, are forced to accept day labour jobs, try illegal "foresting" :) or move to a city job to keep the wife and family together. That or sell/rent out a daughter.
Or themselves. Woman up the road just bought herself a farang (German), 25,000 Baht on the internet. He hasn't known her for more than a week or so and he paid her folks 300,000 Baht for the Sin Sot. That should keep the leaches happy for a few months.Quote:
Originally Posted by OhOh
She was a mia noi til she bought the German. Wouldn't surprise me if she still sees the Thai guy. It's a small village, but talk is plentiful, I'll let you know.
The government gave out free land and free rubber trees years ago, free crown land is still available,Quote:
Originally Posted by OhOh
If you are too lazy to to put in the hours to begin with, you can't expect someone to do it for you.
Illegal logging is big money, as is drug smuggling, dealing, stealing, they aren't forced to do it, easy money. ask a criminal in the UK, USA
Those idle plantations you speak of, are probably unable to hire worker to tap, low price means low wages for the workers.
Those poor Thais having to move to the city for work, FFS, that's the world over, you follow the jobs.
Where can you buy these daughters. or rent them, bar girls are there for the money, easier then working for a living.
Tales of I need the money to support my poor starving family, while taking on a brand new I phone, don't wash.
Prag, go to some inner city shit hole any where in the world, find a hooker, single mun, party girl, tell her here's a big wad of cash, new house, new car and weekly income, come be my girlfriend, see what happens.
The Strongest El Nino In 18 Years Would Further Affect Global NR Production In 2015
The Strongest El Nino In 18 Years Would Further Affect Global NR Production In 2015
The global NR production is expected to decrease further in 2015 following the prolonged and strong El Nino.
As a matter of fact, for the first seven months of 2015, NR production in Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) fell by 2.1% to 5.895 million MT as compared to the same period in 2014 at 6.020 million MT.
The current phenomena of El Nino is the strongest in 18 years since 1997 and is forecast by National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA to linger until end of this year and most likely to continue even further to early 2016.
El Nino changes the weather pattern and many countries are experiencing hot and dry weather. The current prolonged El Nino brings drought to agriculture areas and impacting negatively the production of many commodities such as wheat, sugarcane, cocoa, natural rubber and palm oil in several parts of the world particularly in USA, Latin America, Asia and Australia.
In addition to that, the current non-remunerative low price would further impact NR production in all producing countries.
Have you any links to this, Thai or English?Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Sor. Por. Gor is the main one, but there are lots of other titles.Quote:
Originally Posted by OhOh
If you go to the land office, say your poor, have no land, they can give you some, go to the Amphor or Tessaban, claim some no title land, pay the land taxes yearly and get a possession right.
See some unused [3 years] Sor Por Gor land, you can claim it, as it reverts to the crown if not used.
Other schemes around me, cheap or free land for rubber and palm oil, part of the populate the border plan.
Some years ago and may be still, they were giving out free shop-houses, Chong Mek border crossing, if you lived in it for 10 years, it was yours. Government built towns long borders have lots of schemes to attract outsiders in.
Right now near me, the army is confiscating loads of land near a dam, Lao land border.
Given out 10 years ago for palm and rubber plantations, 10 years up, no plantation, land goes back to the crown and can be given to someone else.
I have 15 rai from the rubber board, had to pay 5,000 Baht a rai [grease] got free rubber trees. Over 10 years now and if they ever get around to checking it, a charnote will be issued.
Thais are generally lazy, full rice bowl today, Buddha will take care of tomorrow, working for your future is not necessary.
Have little time for the poor villager crying poverty, while sleeping in his hammock or drinking Lao Kow all day.
Except for some teachers and government guys, not one person in my village has a job, those that took up rubber, palm oil or cashew nuts, all have new cars and concrete brick homes.
Thanks, I'll talk to my missus, whether she will be classified as poor is another thing. :)
Think your misses will tell you to fuk off, if you send her off to work in the fields.Quote:
Originally Posted by OhOh
Indeed. That subsidized life is hard to break from.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollisterThink your misses will tell you to fuk off, if you send her off to work in the fields.Quote:
Originally Posted by OhOh
Yet, many still do regardless - just outta habit.
Feel contributing.
True in some cases, but not so much habit, but need to secure tomorrow.Quote:
Originally Posted by thaimeme
Nearest farang, 7 KM away, his wife never stops, rice, cassava, chickens, market stalls, frogs, everything to make a Baht.
3 kids, all his and no outside income until last year, small pension now.
They both work, but she puts him to shame in the fields.
My wife on the other hand was told by a wondering monk, when at university, she would marry a man from far away who wore a uniform.
She would never really ever need to work, if a monk tells you that, must be true.
12 years later and she's not had a real job, can't argue with that, I haven't done a days paid work in 5 years either.
Kind of miss working at times, helps fill in the day.
Agreed, except the times she has worked on me of course. That she has a variety of skills which always ensure she wins.:)Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Tall, plump, chap in an orange robe? He gets about alot.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Yes, it's amazing how many unpaid work days there is in a week and how they fly by. There's always work here for a good tapper I'm told.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Sold at auction on Tuesday, 24.50 baht per kg. Averaging 35-40k per month on our 60% cut from the rainy season production so far.
Seems reasonable on the surface.Quote:
Originally Posted by thaiguzzi
Hope this positive trend continues for those who harvest.
I think rubber will recover- at the Big Commodity end, latest word is that inventories are dwindling. Imho, now is a time to plant not demolish.
Sold at auction yesterday, 23.78 baht per kg.
Price should be going up, don't understand what's going on.Quote:
Originally Posted by thaiguzzi
Outputs down, Indian tappers are on strike, stocks in the warehouses. are low.
Can only be oil prices bringing the market down, but it's not a true reflect of rubber supply.
Capitalism, I guess.
But more than enough for planned requirements, yes?Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
That's a big question, Chinese companies where borrowing money, using assets of rubber, copper, aluminium, held in bonded warehouses.Quote:
Originally Posted by OhOh
Turns out, some warehouses are empty, so the stocks may not be there.
Big tire makers have used the low prices to build up stock, but rubber is bought on the futures market, months in advance, so it's a guessing game on supply, enough, too much or too little.
Every alleged expert has a different opinion, Bloomberg's says plenty, world rubber group says not enough, toss a coin.
Maybe users have multiple years worth in storage. Some countries companies plan for the next day, some the next quarter, some the next year, some the next 5 years and some for the next decade.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Maybe flawed logic?
Rubber buyers always make a margin of 2-5 baht per kilo regardless of price.
Ergo buying is the way to go if one can be bothered… without the need to farm trees.
Granted, according to Jim, theoretically one needs a license. Do those that sell at auction have to produce a license?
Once upon a time used haul an overloaded pickup to major dealers..was asked once if we were buyers..The answer was no obviously but doubt it would have made any difference.
New gate buyer today..old guy offered 18baht, new lady in new Triton gave us 23 baht...hey ho...
While it would certainly be nice to see cup at 70-80 baht luckily we have sufficient trees and output to keep the larder full, the beer fridge full and can pay the electric bill on time. Sometimes have to delve into my savings for MIL’s medical expenses and adult lazy unemployed step kids...But what the hell? Otherwise a sweet life down on the farm.
No, unprocessed raw rubber, block or sheet, only has a shelf life of about 12 months.Quote:
Originally Posted by OhOh
Remember it's organic and starts getting brittle with time, so you need to process [vulcanize] within the year for most uses.
Cup buyers round here go broke more often then not, guessing water content and tomorrows price in not easy.
Just curious, Jim...Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollisterThat's a big question, Chinese companies where borrowing money, using assets of rubber, copper, aluminium, held in bonded warehouses.Quote:
Originally Posted by OhOh
Turns out, some warehouses are empty, so the stocks may not be there.
Big tire makers have used the low prices to build up stock, but rubber is bought on the futures market, months in advance, so it's a guessing game on supply, enough, too much or too little.
Every alleged expert has a different opinion, Bloomberg's says plenty, world rubber group says not enough, toss a coin.
Outside of the ever-present and steady SE Asian supply - does Africa, South America, or South Asia create much economic competition? Like most historically valued commodities, I'm sure that rubber and it's by-products is highly politically manipulated and controlled.
Think the main controlling factor today is wages for tappers, politics once had more impact on control, British Malaysia, French Indo China, US south america, but those days have gone.Quote:
Originally Posted by thaimeme
Today it's wages and costs, as posted, Indian company tappers are going on strike for better pay, Malaysian tappers get up to 80% of the rubber price, here in much of Thailand, labor is Burmese or Cambodian.
They once grow rubber in Florida, but as wages increased, it became uneconomical, other producers have or will drop out of producing as costs rise.
Goodyear tire reintroduce, a type of slavery in Africa to cut costs, seems the US has laws that say you have to pay a fair local wage.
They gave their plantations away, contracts signed, new owners pay workers in tokens, can be spent at the company shop only.
Figure, may be 5 years and if prices don't rise back to 2008 prices, I will be using Lao workers. Could be sooner, hard to get local tappers now.
New countries come on line, Indonesia, Vietnam etc others go off line, but wages go up, that dollar a day poverty has gone.
.
invent a rubber tapping robot
Indonesia is hardly a 'new' country in the rubber stakes, and neither is Vietnam.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
As or Malaysian tappers getting 80% of the selling price - I'd love to see some evidence of this
If you have to recruit tappers in India, how much do the locals want.Quote:
Originally Posted by panama hat
You being an international rubber plantation consultant and all, think you should beware of costs.
MPD services is looking for Experienced rubber tappers for vacancy in Malaysia . interview in Kerala soon
1. Employee’s Job Title or Position : Rubber Tapper -100 positions
2. Nature of Work (Briefly) : Tapping rubber from rubber trees in Malaysia
3. Age: 18 – 40 years old
4. Sex: Male
5. Basic Monthly Wage-a) Basic Monthly Salary : Av MYR1000 – MYR1500 per month –( aprox RS17,000 – RS26,000 per month)
6. WORKING HOURS-The Employee shall perform tapping hours as per Company’s instruction. 9 hour shift
7. DURATION OF EMPLOYMENT-The Employment Contract shall be for a period of Three (03) years from the date of arrival of worker. This contract may be extended up to Ten (10) years by mutual agreement of both parties and subject to the approval of relevant authorities.
8. ACCOMMODATION-The Employer shall provide the Employee free accommodation with necessary Amenities including water and electric supply. Necessary kitchen items such as stove, gas cylinders and etc will be provided by the Employer for first time usage only. Any subsequent usage will be borne by the Employee. The Employee shall be housed in a decent and suitable accommodation share with a reasonable number of Employees
9. MEAL / FOOD AND LAUNDRY-The cost will be borne by the Employee.
10. MEDICAL BENEFIT-The workers will be entitled to free medical treatment including medical treatment for estate injuries, except for self-inflicted injuries such as sexually transmitted diseases or any other chronic diseases that has been carried by the Employee from his own country.
11. YEARLY MEDICAL EXAMINATION-The Employer will arrange and bear cost of the yearly medical examination of the Employee, as required by the Immigration Department of Malaysia.
12. ANNUAL LEAVE, SICK LEAVE AND PUBLIC HOLIDAYS- as per Malaysian law
13. INSURANCE COVERAGE AND SECURITY BOND- The Employer shall provide full insurance coverage (free for the Employee) such as Workmen Compensation Scheme for Foreign Workers during the course of employment. The Security Bond / Insurance Guarantee shall be borne by the Employer.
14. GOVERNMENT LEVY AND IMMIGRATION FEES- The levy will be borne by the Employer (No deduction from Employee’s salary).
15. TRANSPORTATION- The Employer shall be responsible to provide suitable transport to the Employee / worker for duty from and to / between the workplace and the worker’s hostel.
16. TRAVELING EXPENSES- upon completion of the Employment Contract the travelling expenses, including air ticket, from workplace to India shall be borne by the Employer.
ppPlease send enquiries to [email protected], [email protected] , 0091-9947540006/0091-9846724374
NIMI MOHAN
HR TEAM LEAD -GROUP
Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
. . . as 'proof' you post an ad for labour from India.Quote:
Originally Posted by panama hat
I know you're loathe to ever admit you're wrong, despite having been proven so many times, but surely this is scraping the bottom of the disingenuous mental barrel
You already made a statement as to how much locals GET - yet you fail to back up your claim.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
As for your next strawman . . . you made the claim, I asked you to show me something that supports your assertion and you don't . . . instead, you paste an ad for Indian labour.
It's easy:
Ah, PH. I made an off-the-cuff comment, just guessing.
Easy
The Star Online
According to Salmiah, Malaysia's average yield per ha stands at about 1,500 kg, which is much lower than other major NR producing countries like Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam.
6,25 rai to a hectare, so 1,000 trees is a bit over 14 rai, now i get my percentage tapper a 50/50 split. for easy numbers, bit over 2 hectares.
Tad over 3,000 kilos a year, price is say 30 Baht a kilo, giving 90,000, his share is 45,000, even if I gave him 2,000 trees, that's a lot for one man, he would still not get the wage offered to quest workers.
The man would be a fool to take 50/50 split when Indonesian and Indian guest workers get between 100,000 and 150,000 Baht a year, working the big plantations,
So what percentage do you think a Malaysian would want.
Why don't you post something about percentage tappers in Malaysia that says different.
As 70% of rubber is company run, they pay wages. different system to Thailand.
The Kerala Cabinet has approved a 'Munnar package' for striking plantation workers in the State, which incorporates a health insurance scheme and provision for housing.
While recommending the package to the State Government, the Cabinet also expressed itself in favour of an upward revision of wages in plantation sector.
This comes ahead of a scheduled meeting of the Plantation Labour Committee which had met thrice before but failed to arrive at an amicable settlement to the unrest across plantations in the State.
Chief Minister Oommen Chandy is expected to attend the meeting that begins in a short while from now.
Earlier bids had failed after the trade union leaders and the plantation managements could not agree on a minimum wage.
Most plantations have been lying closed for days together now. Sources said that the State Government is keen to bring about an early solution especially in view of the fast-approaching elections to local bodies.
I didn't make the statement that tappers make up to 80% of the price sold. You did.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
It's a minimum wage, hourly, daily or monthly in Malaysia, do the maths, it's not hard.Quote:
Originally Posted by panama hat
For an international rubber/business consultant, Henry you seem a bit uninformed.
So do tell, how much does a Malaysian tapper earn, do they work for less then guest workers.
Over and out space cadet Hat,
Still doesn't change the fact that you just make up something and pass it off as 'fact'.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollisterIt's a minimum wage, hourly, daily or monthly in Malaysia, do the maths, it's not hard.Quote:
Originally Posted by panama hat
For an international rubber/business consultant, Henry you seem a bit uninformed.
So do tell, how much does a Malaysian tapper earn, do they work for less then guest workers.
Over and out space cadet Hat,
Try harder, maybe you can drag yourself out of your morass
Sold at auction Tuesday, Udon province, 23.89 baht per kg. Must still be money to be made as there were 14 (fourteen!) bidders.
Sold at auction yesterday, Udon province, 21.73 baht per kg.
Got 18 baht day before yesterday at gate...another two large farms locally chopping rubber trees..sad that the cutters will be out of a job and income.
My personal philosophy:
Anyone who owns a few rai in Thailand can and will survive with a little ingenuity.
Grow your own veggies, a few chickens for meat and eggs maybe and a goat for milk?
Just remember my dad thankfully coming home from WW2...he kept rabbits for meat and converted flower beds to vegetable gardens…bit of ‘careful’ ‘trading’ got us milk, eggs, butter and cheese.
I guess we can do without the internet and phones, gasoline/diesel powered vehicles.
I note that in our local village some are bartering or swapping. Our neighbors swap/give us various fruits and vegetables…MIL has chickens,SIL has many fruit trees.
Do we actually need banks and the plethora of non ‘producing’ entities..I think not.