Depends on one's perspective.Quote:
Originally Posted by ltnt
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Depends on one's perspective.Quote:
Originally Posted by ltnt
Quite true Jeff some times nothing is a real cool hand :)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDYyg0QskRoQuote:
Originally Posted by thaimemeDepends on one's perspective.Quote:
Originally Posted by ltnt
Coming back from a very pleasant 3 nights in Rayong one could not help but notice the tens of miles of Immature rubbers tree's on either side of the road in an already world wide saturated market(according to this article) one must come to the conclusion that Sadly Thailands rubber farmers face a very insecure future ,I do like the comment at the end about Thailands answer to the problem :)As rice mountain shrinks, a rubber one rises | Bangkok Post: news
Read the article in the rubber associations site, another London based crystal ball gazer who gets a few bits of info, then makes predictions on hearsay and non existent policies.Quote:
Originally Posted by piwanoi
GRM has another London based prediction guy saying lack of out put will force prices up.
India is upping imports, their local production is down to a 10 year low, car sales are up, but the US has put tariffs on Chinese tires.
As to the guys bit about the Thai government buying rubber at an inflated price and stock piling, not seen that in real life, just words. Our local government buyers are paying less then the drive by guys.
Markets will decide, lack of tappers and fertilizer will drop even more output this season.
On a brighter note, will start tapping Saturday/Sunday, should have started on last Monday, but not a lucky week, Saturday night is a good luck day for some magical reason.
Best of luck Jim , lets just hope that this present administration handles the rubber problem better than the last one did with rice:)Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollisterRead the article in the rubber associations site, another London based crystal ball gazer who gets a few bits of info, then makes predictions on hearsay and non existent policies.Quote:
Originally Posted by piwanoi
GRM has another London based prediction guy saying lack of out put will force prices up.
India is upping imports, their local production is down to a 10 year low, car sales are up, but the US has put tariffs on Chinese tires.
As to the guys bit about the Thai government buying rubber at an inflated price and stock piling, not seen that in real life, just words. Our local government buyers are paying less then the drive by guys.
Markets will decide, lack of tappers and fertilizer will drop even more output this season.
On a brighter note, will start tapping Saturday/Sunday, should have started on last Monday, but not a lucky week, Saturday night is a good luck day for some magical reason.
piwanoi, personally the government should just stop interfering altogether, they can't change what happens in other countries.
If they want long term results, invest in tire, rubber glove and other export rubber products.
Helping small medium rubber factories to make and export rubber goods is the way to go.
If China can buy, import and process rubber products, why can Thailand produce these same products here.
Know, by the net a guy in India, makes rubber bands, try and get help here to set up a rubber band factory, not a big investment in equipment, help's needed in setting up exports and getting markets.
Small producers can't go off around the world selling goods, takes a lot of money to go and find customers, arrange shipping etc.
Selling on line is good for postal amounts, but money is in container loads.
Spot on Jim , Thaksin tried that with rice and a fat lot of good that did .Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Stockpiling just drives the price down further in the long run.
As Has happened with Rice ,as Jim rightly say one Country cannot hope to govern the World wide price of produce such as rice or Rubber , that is unless its got a monopoly which certainly is not the case here .Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
As has happened with many commodities piwi. They never seem to learn.
This article is a wee bit dated but it shows the depth of the problem here in Thailand with Rice How will Thai Military Government Control Falling Rice Prices? | OryzaQuote:
Originally Posted by sabang
The boys in this neighborhood are still planting rice and growing new rubber trees. What part of sanity did you folks think these farmers are using? Jim's going out on full moon Buddha day to tap. Great Jim, keep up the good work.:rolleyes:
Not much choice when all your eggs are in one basket. OZ dollar is now at 75/$1, going backwards just like rubber and rice. I guess the Chinese have had their fill?
Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
They also don't seem to comprehend, less the ideals of stockpiling and manipulation, the basic ideal of a free and open market.
How are they being manipulated and by whom ? :) No one makes these up here plant more rice or rubber , there's no pistol to their heads :rofl:Quote:
Originally Posted by thaimemeQuote:
Originally Posted by sabang
They also don't seem to comprehend, less the ideals of stockpiling and manipulation, the basic ideal of a free and open market.
Simple facts appear to be strictly off limits here in Issan , History shows that many animals died off cos they could not adapt to the changing environment , but hey they was just dumb animals eh :)Quote:
Originally Posted by ltnt
Here in Issan they chop the forests down ,decimate the indigenous animals ,put fish nets over every field drain with a mesh so small a fucking tadpole cannot swim through with no thought for tomorrows breeding stock , just who's fault is that? their utter stupidity or the Jews and Merkins and capitalism , its often said the working man is his own worst enemy ,this could not be exemplified any better by looking at what goes on right now here in Issan at this moment in time :smileylaughing:.Quote:
Originally Posted by thaimemeQuote:
Originally Posted by sabang
They also don't seem to comprehend, less the ideals of stockpiling and manipulation, the basic ideal of a free and open market.
^Yup! They kill everything off never adhering to the idea of self sufficiency as stated by Royal Decree, I think they think it means serve yourself first all others must eat grass.
Ask yourself this folks: Why would people eat grubs, cockroaches, lizards, ants eggs, crickets and other forms of insects if life were so generous and there was loads of alternative food sources?
Thai fishing isn't fishing, its a free for all that lasts till the last minnow is dead. Greed is the fuel factor that motivates all things Thai. Its not "native to people living in Issan."
Look at the bottom feeders at the very top of this food chain. That ought to tell you everything you need to know about Thai culture. Nice article on rubber and rice in the BP today...finally spelling it out for all to read, but will not pay any attention to the gluts they have and are creating. Keep Tapping Boys, the price is still dropping. Yea, get mad at the government for not buying the surplus products, that'll show em. Idjuts!
Yeah Itnt the full article is in my post 1083, however Jim appears to view it as speculation and not really factual in his post #1084 , what I want to know is whats going to happen when all those hundreds of thousands of immature rubber tree's mile after mile I saw on my way back from Rayong to Buri ram come on stream ? :)Quote:
Originally Posted by ltnt
I've seen with my own eyes a fair load of 5-7 year old trees being cut down here locally, and being sold for paper mills rather than lumber for furniture. 10 wheelers nearly every day drive past my house loaded with sawn off rubber trees. At some point soon, the supply/demand thing has got to even out. As for new rubber going in, not much up here, and people are truly daft elsewhere if that is their new crop of choice. Missus was out and about a couple of weeks ago, and where there was a nice 30 odd rai of 7 year old trees, now all gone. replaced with cassava and sugar. Don't think Isaan farmers are as daft as some posters on here like to claim.
And another thing, whats wrong with ant eggs? Ever tried 'em? Got just about every nourishment that a human needs. Re bugs, grubs, and crickets. One day, long after my lifetime the world will have to get round to figuring out how to feed a population explosion, and insects will be one of the ways forward. the BBC ran a big documentary on this very subject a couple of years ago.
So in effect that's 7 years of waiting for the trees to produce totally wasted ?, surely the price received for the timber or the promised Government subsidy cannot make up for that?:)Quote:
Originally Posted by thaiguzzi
Are ther not business to business web auction sites rather than the retail end?Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Soilent Green Guzzie....:rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by thaiguzzi
Business sites for commodities reflect this market, "rubber," to be flat well into 2020's...as I've posted its web site before. Again as stated by the BP's writer and sources that rubber follows the price of oil...@ 50% of what it was I figure with Iran due to start commercially producing into the OPEC market soon, that $47/barrel oil may be dropping to $30/barrel or lower. Synthetic rubber will consume the market place contrary to Jim's reports. As oil goes so goes the price of tires...down, down, down.
New market here "oil palms." Newest pump job by the unelected government...forget it. Oil glut spells doom for oil palm business. Idiots!
They're rather behind the trendy times - attempting to climb aboard the bandwagon when it's long passed.Quote:
Originally Posted by ltnt
itni wrote:
"... Again as stated by the BP's writer and sources that rubber follows the price of oil..."
that may have been true many years ago but i seem to recall that the price of latex came down a long long time before oil did. i can't see, and haven't seen a correlation between the two for well over 2 years.
^Due to oversupply initially now due to available syn. rubber at less cost as well continued oversupply of raw rubber...I stand corrected utr...
Correct.Quote:
Originally Posted by piwanoiSo in effect that's 7 years of waiting for the trees to produce totally wasted ?, surely the price received for the timber or the promised Government subsidy cannot make up for that?:)Quote:
Originally Posted by thaiguzzi
Only thing wrong in the above statement is the price of tires. Yes, rubber price is down, but i'm not seeing the price of tires coming down. The average consumer (billions of them) does not realise that the price of rubber has collapsed from 4 years ago. I doubt the tire manufacturers want people to know too.Quote:
Originally Posted by ltnt
Hey Guzzi ,I don't know were you originate from, but if you are from the UK you may remember the signs they used to post in fish and chip shops ,like due to months of inclement weather potatoes have gone up in price so sadly we have to raise the price of chips ,but when there was a glut of spuds the price of chips stayed as they was and never went down :)
Comparing palm oil prices to oil prices, is like comparing corn prices to oil prices, corn can be used for ethanol.Quote:
Originally Posted by ltnt
Palm oil is mostly used for foods and need is predicted to double by 2020, hungry world out there.
Can't cook with crude oil or use it in food production etc different market.
I was thinking more made in Thailand rubber derivatives, rather than bulk rubber.Quote:
Originally Posted by ltnt
^Yea, but if your a producer of tires in Thailand you need a market thats not already covered by other producers. China seems to be owner of most tire production companies these days and just bought out Pirrelli...I think it would be a pretty slim to none market for a company from Thailand.
They would need to export...cost factors...as for palm oil Jim, loads used in fuel these days, check out Malaysia not all synfuels are corn fed.
Surely Thailand doesn't import rubber bands! There must be millions used every day.
Indeed Itnt , dozens of articles were palm oil is being processed into bio diesel ,this being just one of them Transport & Biofuels | Sustainable Palm Oil PlatformQuote:
Originally Posted by ltnt
I remember when the Australian government was subsidising grape growers to rip out their worthy old shiraz and grenache vines, and replace them with the then 'new and trendy' chardonnay grape. Those that didn't, such as Rob from Rockfords, reaped the rewards for their patience. In the Barossa, especially, were some of the best old shiraz & grenache vines in the world- old vines produce a concentration of fruit that cannot be matched by young vines, but neither do they yield as much.
More recently, I remember driving around the Riverland area in SA, wih hundreds of tons of oranges just left on the trees to rot- because it was not even worth picking them. Due to a new trade rule you see, it was much cheaper for juice producers to import 44 gallon drums of orange juice concentrate from Brazil, and produce an inferior product. Sigh. But on the bright side, we were free to pick all the fresh oranges we wanted (for free- nobody around), take them home and juice them- and we did.
Agriculture, 'of the soil', 'back to nature' and all that be damned- it is just as loony as every other industry. I have come to respect the French, and their understanding of "terroir" and what it is really all about. It is the food we eat- shouldn't that be special?
Good food/drink/products, French or otherwise, is available mainly to the few. Either economics or time determine whether one can partake.
I see in Thailand many meals are produced from MAKRO purchased basics. The meals are thrown together and on the table in minutes. No gentle bubbling just flash or deep fried immediate .
The seasonal variety doesn't seem to be there, the care of the plants, animals and produce is haphazard to say the least. Time, effort and operating costs - water, feeds, fertilizer etc. are all the least possible. All to obtain a max Kg weight of product, any product, for sale.
The French and other countries now utilise the area of produce, the producers name, the producers product awards and customer feedback. All for "Brand" recognition and customer retention. Thais and maybe other Asians, care not a toot except to boast "I have sold X kg at XXX/kg today, have a whisky and sleep. The women, eat, drink, play cards or sleep. That is when they are not on the telephone to their "friends".
Or maybe it's just the company I keep.:confused:
Thailand does make rubber bands, but unlike India, it's heavily regulated.Quote:
Originally Posted by OhOh
India has lots of small cottage type rubber band makers, Thailand has a few large rubber companies that control rubber product and production.
As said, it's not expensive to set up rubber band making. but getting a license and finding buyers in a closed shop environment is expensive.
I have an open rubber license and can make rubber bands, but I would need to package, brand and find buyers, that's not easy when the market is controlled by a few big rubber houses.
As to palm oil, 1 in 10 supermarket products contain palm oil, bio fuel is a dream of high oil prices.
As China, India etc move over to processed foods, more and more,palm oil will be needed, it's the cheapest food oil.
Oil prices will rise, heard it all in 2009, then it was going to be almost free, same as rubber, game over.
Biggest threat to rubber is labor costs, in the long term. Malaysian rubber is finished, labor costs are high already, Indian workers are leaving the plantations in droves.
The world is in a financial crises, things may get worse before they get better, but the roads are not empty and car sales are up.
We have started opening up trees and looks like we will make it to another season, even at 15 baht a kilo we will live.
It's life and better then being laid off from a job with a mortgage and bills to pay.
Sold some cassava today, not good, but have a few beers to drink tonight.
Of course we can go on and and on about the rubber trade here in Thailand with quotes from this source or the other , the sad truth of it all is the rubber trade is well and truly fucked for the for seeable future , you can tap in the full moon at a certain lucky day but sadly the end result is just the same ,ain't that right Itnt :)
It may be fcuked Pi but I don't see people felling, and clearing, the defunked trees out. May be they're all waiting to see who jumps first?
Neither have I ,and of course this may be the case but according to Guzzi in his post 1099 10 wheeler's are going past his place loaded with sawn down rubber tree's on a regular basis ,so it would appear that quite a few are "jumping" already:)Quote:
Originally Posted by Pragmatic
I think him mistaken in that those trucks are full of Eucalyptus trees on their way to 'Double A', or the likes, pulping mills.Quote:
Originally Posted by piwanoi