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OPEC's dumping oil, they will continue to keep the price down. The USA will cut back, but black market oil producers will tarnish any reduced oil production by the USA.
Remember, Russia is going tits up, so look for oil from them to flood the market place early next year. No compromise in sight.
People still tapping here Jim, but not getting rich.
Apparently they are getting the chainsaws ready in Rayong.
People who own family tapped plantations will tap, hour or 2 in the morning and they keep all the money.Quote:
Originally Posted by ltnt
Bigger plantations need workers, profits for owners and wages for workers, workers will work where the pay is best.
Believe there is some saying, 1 kilo of rubber needs to buy 1 kilo of rice, not looked into the correlation, but suppose it means a plantations rubber needs to be able to buy it's weight in rice. Tesco 40 Bt. a kilo for rice.
Russia has big problems, high costs of production, if it cost more to produce then you make, no win situation. Iran needs higher prices just to keep the country afloat, same for others.
Saudi may be calling the shots now, but some of their friends can't afford to follow for too long.
NR is all ready cheaper than SR, except in China, because of [illegal] government subsides.
Big billion dollar game, not only over rubber and oil, palm oil, cassava, other bio fuels will be hit.
Willing to bet, big oil isn't going to let profits fall for too long. ISIS could go into Saudi and the west could say, so said to bad.
Strange times, but not going to chop my trees down and plant rice just yet. Jim
Last few weeks.... constant sound of heavy equipment and chainsaws within a few k's of our farm..rubber trees..let's hope government comes through with all their promises for these guys.
What a Bummer Crepitas!, 6 years of their hopes that they could make a decent living for their labours and money in the future ,only to see it dashed by circumstances beyond their control ,ain't live a bastard at times?.Quote:
Originally Posted by crepitas
Looking at commodities USA price for rubber is .70.35 cents per pound. 1984 price was 34.65 cents per pound, and 2001 was 22.12 per pound. So apparently things have been a lot worse over time. 30 year chart available on:
Commodity Prices - Price Charts, Data, and News - IndexMundi
Bliss and luxury - had relatives visiting for the last fortnight, not switched a computer on in that time, downside - sleep deprivation.
Sold at auction yesterday, Udon Province, cup at 20.32 baht per kg. 12 bidders for the auction (more than normal), so money is still to be made. Apparently, lots of tappers given up, and plantations are either being tapped by owners and family or just stopped tapping. I've heard of 50/50 splits just to keep tappers on.
We'll keep on plodding on till end of January, leaf fall seems to have started early up here this year, production excellent due to the cooler nights, but we will suffer Feb onwards. May go back to the UK for a few months FFS.
What's the betting, world outputs way down, price shoots up, just as my trees go dormant.Quote:
Originally Posted by thaiguzzi
Jim
Sods fucking law Jim ,Sods law .Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollisterWhat's the betting, world outputs way down, price shoots up, just as my trees go dormant.Quote:
Originally Posted by thaiguzzi
Jim
Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollisterWhat's the betting, world outputs way down, price shoots up, just as my trees go dormant.Quote:
Originally Posted by thaiguzzi
Jim
Would make sense to store some of it away then ..... if you can afford to.
Palexxxx, if I had money, my sheds would be full of sheet rubber now. There is going to be an acute shortage of it, no ones making it. You can't buy any, if there is none made. Jim
I wasn't talking about buying it. I was talking about making sheet (which I know you've done previously) and storing it away. What I meant by "if you can afford to" was that if you didn't need to sell all of what you produce to make ends meet.
Rubber Output From Top Growers Drops 1.2% in Jan-Nov.: ANRPC
Posted date : December 10, 2014 In Global rubber market news 0
Production from growers accounting for 93% of global supply falls to 9.97m mt in Jan.-Nov. period, according to Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.
* Output for 2014 seen dropping 7.6% to 10.32m mt, ANRPC says in monthly bulletin
* Exports -1.1% at 8.06m mt during first 11 months: ANRPC
* Top shipper Thailand’s exports +1.4% at 3.31m mt y/y
* Consumption in Jan.-Nov. estimated +4.8% y/y due to buying from China, India
(Source: Bloomberg)
Yeh, got you, problem is I have to buy my own rubber in away.Quote:
Originally Posted by palexxxx
Tappers will want their share up front, plus extra for collecting the liquid and transporting etc.
Tappers won't make sheet under 70 Baht a kilo, so I would need to pay them at least 28 Baht a kilo, every kilo I made and kept would put me out of pocket, say 60 Baht.
Soon adds up and I don't have the money now, prices have been too low for too long, add the unknown factors, when and how much the price goes up
Thought about a bank loan against the factory/company, but it's a big gamble, one my kids may regret in years to come. So for now will sit it out and hope I'm not in OZ next year on welfare.
It's a numbers game, if I sidelined a few ton, could make an extra 60,000 Bt. maybe
To make real money you would want 100 ton plus, meaning an investment of around $200,000 US. You win, you get 50% return or more, lose and cleaning toilets for a living.
Jim
Don't forget to dry it out and cook it Jim. Or may be not, depending on your mood.:)Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Rubber farmers suppose to strike for 80 baht rubber price. NCPO says no way, let the market settle the price. About time. Stop digging the hole deeper for a change.
Planting soy beans now.
Rubber price will bounce back. It has to. Just depends on how long and how deep your pockets are in the mean time.
I prefer farming food. Prices come and go and some years are good and some aren't but we all gotta eat.
Small wheat farmers in Australia are doing okay - weather permitting of course. I have been growing wheat for 5 years now and 4 out of those 5 years have seen decent returns.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Cattle farmers did it tough due to the complete balls up of the then Labor government and their knee jerk reaction to ban live exports for a while. Now that it is sorted and live exports to China are gearing up they are doing much better and if a few years time will be doing very well. Again, weather permitting of course.
Out of curiosity, MM....how many acres in wheat?Quote:
Originally Posted by MeMockSmall wheat farmers in Australia are doing okay - weather permitting of course. I have been growing wheat for 5 years now and 4 out of those 5 years have seen decent returns.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Cattle farmers did it tough due to the complete balls up of the then Labor government and their knee jerk reaction to ban live exports for a while. Now that it is sorted and live exports to China are gearing up they are doing much better and if a few years time will be doing very well. Again, weather permitting of course.
Hi Thaimeme,
I have three farms in the same district and each one is 300 acres (give or take a few). I rotate Wheat, Beans and Canola through the three farms.
RAYONG, 12 December 2014 (NNT) – Fifteen Chinese importers of rubber today signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in which they agreed to buy 250,000 tons of rubber at the price of over 11,250,000,000 million baht.
The signing took place at a hotel in the central district of Rayong Province with 19 Thai rubber exporters signing on the suppliers’ behalf. The ceremony was also witnessed by Mr.Tassana Vichaithanapat, deputy governor of Rayong, Ms. Buniga Chaemsai, Minister Counsellor for Commercial Affairs at the Royal Thai Consulate-General in Shanghai and Ms. Suppara Seakacharn, Director of the Export Promotion Center of the International Trade Promotion Eastern Region Office.
Ms. Buniga said Thailand and China have long enjoyed close relationship in terms of trade, investment and tourism. China is currently the biggest market of Thai rubber due to its car industry. In 2013, the value of rubber exports to China was worth around 114,100 million baht or 45 per cent of the total export value. The figure has dropped to around 63,200 million baht this year.
Ms. Suppara of the International Trade Promotion Eastern Region Office said the MoU would be of great benefit to Thailand both in terms of income and market expansion.
Add to that, China's state buyer have bought another 500,000 MT in the last few weeks. Seems they are not going through the futures markets, Tokyo, Singapore and are paying in Yuan not dollars.
Don't know if it's a good sign or not, probably not, if long term contracts and prices are fixed the Thai government and suppliers are locked in. They will then try and holed prices down.
As said earlier, all sounds like market manipulation so China can corner the market in NR and SR. Bet deals like this are going on in Indo, Vietnam etc.
Cutting out the rubber futures exchange, buying at a fixed price in your own currency, no loses on exchange rates.
All of this and no price increase at all.
That works out at over 45,000 baht a ton. How does that price seem to you, Jim? How does it compare to recent prices?
Just out of interest (really I have none anymore) thought I'd ask the misses how the rubber trees are going and apparently they are tapping everyday but have sold none, just keeping it all and are up to 500 something or other maybe squares or mats or whatever they do with it and are waiting for March/April before going to sell it as for some reason they are expecting prices to have risen by then probably based on nothing more than the ramblings of the local monk.
Neverna, it's cheap all round, that's why I don't understand locking in prices like that.
Indonesian can't supply it's contracted rubber on time, prices are so low that plantations aren't producing.
Thailand is no different, production is way down, why anyone would lock into a fixed price, is beyond me.
You say you will supply something, in the future at X price, but you lose money on each kilo you sell, if you can get the rubber in the first place.
All very strange, much more behind it all, China is now the worlds biggest economy with plenty of reserve capital, it could take a year off and not be in debt.
Think they are making a play, manipulating markets, won't buy in US, people need to sell, buy in Yuan.
buriramboy, common belief here trees down time, no rubber, price goes up, not reality, rubber is warehoused and sold on the futures market, can store for about 2 years.
So seasons make little difference, but as few are making RSS [ high grade rubber] I believe there will be a large shortage. Money to be made, if you can afford to wait.
If I had the cash I would. Jim
China deliberately makes the price go down, buys up everything for the next few years at todays low prices , sells that rubber when the price goes up, nice profit ?
Wasn't there an agreement between Thailand's coup leader and Chinese delegation at the ASIAN summit to pay china with surplus rubber for the Fast Train construction by China? Rice was also considered for dumping in Chinas warehouses.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Quote:
Originally Posted by buriramboy
That works out at over 45,000 baht a ton.
At 1,000 kg to the ton that's 45 baht per kg, is this not a pretty good price. Compared to the current 20 + price it seems a very good base price.[/QUOTE]
20 Baht raw cup lump, 45 Baht is for TSR or processed rubber, tire grade.
Losing money for every kilo sold, not possible for private companies to lock themselves in to a long term contract that guarantees a loss.
Some back room dealings going on.
Yes I saw my mistake and have noted it.:)Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Many countries, including the US, has banks and instituions which unfortunately suffer the same problem. :) The US has just passed a bill making the individual US citizen liable for the trillions of US$ debt accumulated by the US government.Quote:
Originally Posted by ltnt
It has become very easy to open a Yuan denominated account in Thailand. If one is able to diversify one's assets, one should take advantage, yes?
Farming and Gardening in Thailand.
webboard Rubber growers abandon plantations, output falls 25% in November
January is the peak season for natural rubber production in India, but this time monthly output in November was badly hit in the aftermath of a deep crisis in the market.
As the local market recorded only Rs 114 for a kg of RSS-4 grade rubber, there is 25% fallin production in November, according to estimates by Rubber Board.
The production was just 6,400 tones against 85,300 tones in the same month of 2013. If the trend continued, India will see steep fall in production during 2014-15, creating fresh crisis in the supply side.
Total yearly output may fall 10-12 % in full year and it may initiate a multiplier effect in the market as tyre majors will depend more on import as overseas markets are cheaper.
Experts say this could deepen the crisis further in the local market as there would be steep fall in prices and may lead to growers abandoning rubber plantations.
Benny Kuriakose, a local farmer told Business Standard that a major chunk of growers, mainly small and medium holders, had stopped tapping for the past couple of years and plan to dismantle the plantations.
“The average daily expense comes to the tune of Rs 1,200 -1,500 per acre and wages and earnings are too low. So it is advisable not to tap the plantations that means sharp fall in production for the last six months.”
He added, “The crisis might intensify further as government’s initiatives like procurement have failed miserably. Farmers have no way but to abandon the farms.”
To cap the climax consumption increased 12% in November at 85,000 tones and import had a jump of 19 % at 33,156 tones. This creates a paradox in natural rubber industry as the dependence on import will be a critical factor for the rubber based industries in India in future. Overall in April – November period import increased 15 % at 298,490 tones.
As the growers abandon plantations India will have to depend on South East Asia for rubber. This, in long run, will affect the supply side and the prices as India will turn out to be a net importer of rubber. So the current situation endangers not only the very existence of one million plus farmers, but the availability of rubber in India in the future.
Would think similar decrease in production here, so what surplus.
Also note RSS has gone up everyday this week, still too low for me to mark sheet, as it will be for others.
Touch wood prices have bottomed out, market forces, supply and demand, not market manipulation will take over. Jim
So everyone is chopping their rubber trees down .
This will cause a shortage in the future .
This will cause the price of rubber to rise .
People will then plant rubber trees again .
This wil take seven years to grow .
In which time the price of rubber will rise , due to a shortage .
The financial market men who have bought future rubber at these low prices , will be able to sell that rubber at the future high price ?
That's a bit premature. I've seen no sign of rubber trees being bulldozed. They're still tapping and producing sheet around where I live.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fluke
A few posts back, pages , posters were reporting that they are cutting down rubber trees (in Thailand), not everyone, but some people are , as they are in India .Quote:
Originally Posted by Pragmatic
The government were offering compensation to those that cut down their trees but there's no proof of that they're paying out. No confirmation of payments, so I doubt people are jumping just yet.
We're certainly not chopping ours down- they're only striplings. Maybe, when the time comes to tap, rubber might be worth tapping again? There is alway a considerable opportunity cost attached to changing land from one type of crop to another- usually the latest 'hot crop''. Cassava, sugar, rubber, all been ramped up, and then dumped. Since I've been here. So chop down rubber, go with the latest 'hot crop', and get dumped on again. Ever wonder why farmers increasingly lose their land? It's the commodity markets, combined with their own naivete'.
People are chopping down trees, but they are older, less productive clones.
Sabang, rubbers fairly new to Issan, not to many old plantations, older clones bigger trees, say 30,000+ lumber value and 20,000 Gov. grant, worth getting rid of low production trees.
I have not seen any new plantations planted this year, people seem to be going for the newer cassava clones, fast growing, bigger tonnage, cash crop.
Some are planting cashew nuts, less labor intense and a steady demand, anyones guess what tomorrows prices will be for any thing.
If I had spare cash, I'd be planting nutmeg in the rubber plantations, they need the shade to grow. Another income to put the kids through Uni wouldn't hurt. Jim
Nutmeg is a tree isn't it? Or a bush? Anyway, would you plant inbetween your rubber trees? How much cash is required? For how much land for growth? Wheres the established market? What's the market value after harvest?Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Why not coffee or tea depending on location I suppose? What about coco?
Lots of acres around here growing chilies, pumpkins, corn, soybeans, red beans, cassava, rubber and rice. Same here, nobodies cutting down their rubber trees. Lots hitting the bank up for government payments, loans on land, and retirement stipend. 600baht at 60, 700 baht at 70, and so on. Don't see a lot of red plates this year.
Speaking to two farangs last night who farm 90 rai of mature rubber in between them who informed me they both had ceased tapping over two months ago ,and decided to do nothing with both adopting a wait and see attitude and do nothing ,I suppose that is OK for them as both are quite wealthy anyway , no such luck for other Thai farmers in my area though ,Jan was talking to ones wife in the Market a few days ago who said her husband had got a job in Korat just to survive .
http://www.spices.res.in/pdf/package/nutmeg.pdfQuote:
Originally Posted by ltnt
Doesn't seem much of a market in Thailand, not grown here by the look of it.
But China is not far away and they buy it.
Seems to have taken off in the rubber producing areas of India, planted between rows of rubber, shade.
Farm gate price, guess $10 US a kilo, as the wholesale price is around $20.
Cost would mainly be getting the clones shipped in, so no idea how much, have no money so not looked to far into it.
From India? Warm dry climate or high humidity wet climate? N.East or N.West Thailand climate suitable? Would you be able to sell to China at a rate competitive with India?Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister