Rubber trees 101

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ltnt

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Cost would mainly be getting the clones shipped in

---

From India? Warm dry climate or high humidity wet climate? N.East or N.West Thailand climate suitable? Would you be able to sell to China at a rate competitive with India?

---

Rubber in India is mostly grown in the Kerala area, similar rain fall to where I live.
Wages there are around $10 US a day [300 Baht] Indo would be the main competition, as India uses most of it own produce internally.
Don't know much about exporting, but would guess trucking from Thailand [or train in the future] would be competitive.
As said not really gone to deep in to it, came up on an Indian rubber forum I'm on and have a friend in Ubon, who is a manager in a BOI company exporting agro crops.
Again, need money up front and a long wait before a return.

Have to wonder about some of these alleged commodity experts opinions, wish some one would pay me to make baseless predictions.
Bloomberg, last week, rubber to remain soft next year, due to 300,000 ton world oversupply.
Month before, Thai rubber board predicting 10% decrease in 2014 of output from 2013.
My be my maths are bad, but Thailand produced 4 point 7 mil M/T 2013, 10% drop would be 470,000 MT less.
By my reckoning that's 170,000 M/T under-supply there alone, never mind places like India with a 25% drop.

Tire companies in India are so worried about the coming shortage that they are going to pay 25% over the market price, to keep the plantations going.

Good years and bad, 2011 was good, 2008/9 was bad, 2012 started the fall, fingers crossed, just the cycle and 2015 is upturn time again. Jim

Natural Rubber in Indonesia Update: Export & Production

Indonesia Investments
23 December 2014 | Indonesia Investments
Subjects | Daud Husni Bastari, Rubber Price, Rubber Export, Rubber Industry, GAPKINDO, Indonesian Rubber Association, Natural Rubber, Rubber Production, Rubber, Commodities

Indonesia’s export of natural rubber is forecast to reach 2.58 million tons in 2015, roughly similar to this year’s expected export performance but a 10 percent decline from the country’s rubber export in 2013. This year, local rubber companies have been negatively affected by sluggish global demand triggering international rubber prices touching three-year lows. Rubber production in Indonesia in 2014 is expected to reach 3.5 million tons, of which 90 percent is exported abroad (mostly to the USA, Japan, China, India and Brazil).

Indonesian rubber production in 2014 has been curbed by various matters, such as abundant rainfall at the start of 2014 and rubber producers’ lack of enthusiasm to plant rubber trees amid low rubber prices. Currently, the global rubber price is roughly USD $1.48 per kilogram, below production costs and therefore opting for other crops (for example palm oil) is more lucrative.

Chairman of the Indonesian Rubber Association (Gapkindo) Daud Husni Bastari targets rubber exports in the range of 500,000 and 600,000 tons in the first quarter of 2015. He added that the Indonesian government should spur domestic usage of rubber (for example using rubber in asphalt) in a move to boost rubber production.

Indonesia is the world’s second-largest rubber producer. Since the 1980's Indonesia’s rubber industry has grown steadily, with most rubber plantations located on the island of Sumatra. The government and large private estates play a minor role in the country’s rubber sector. Most of the rubber production - around 80 percent - is produced by smallholder farmers.

Jim,

Right about commodities futures reports. You can find whatever results your heart desires in these reports I find. There's a Thai company called Thaitex Group that manufactures things like medical gloves and FDA type products. They report buying about 3MT of rubber alone annually for export products. If you want daily updates or don't have them already, on USA rubber price Index use the previous exmundi.com site for quotes as well as graphs/charts on history of all commodities not only rubber.

Sold cup at auction this week in Udon Province at 21.60 baht per kg.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

Sold cup at auction this week in Udon Province at 21.60 baht per kg.

---

Cup doesn't seem to have gone up much, but note that RSS at the big auction [export] has gone up about 7 baht over the last week or so. Jim

RSS broken the 60 baht mark at the Thai rubber auctions, still a long way to go before I can go back into sheet, but at least the price is going in the right direction. Jim

Would be nice if Maca could be grown between trees.!
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/07/wo...xury.html?_r=0

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jamescollister

RSS broken the 60 baht mark at the Thai rubber auctions, still a long way to go before I can go back into sheet, but at least the price is going in the right direction.

---

Due to the flooding in Malaysia your wish is being granted.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jamescollister

RSS broken the 60 baht mark at the Thai rubber auctions, still a long way to go before I can go back into sheet, but at least the price is going in the right direction.

---

Due to the flooding in Malaysia your wish is being granted.

---

Not yet it hasn't, cup rubber seems to be staying down, sheet needs to be over 70 Baht local for me to make it.
All very strange things happening worldwide, I make it 500,000 MT under-supply now, oil still falling, yet the price of shares in fracking have fallen 40%, that's a burst bubble.
Companies can't switch to synthetic rubber overnight, got me what's going on, worlds screwed.
Just have to batten down and ride out what's coming and I don't think it's going to be good. Jim

Things must be looking up. GFs sister just returned the 20 quid she borrowed last year. Not sure if she had a win at cards or stopped feeding her kids.
I'm hoping she got off her fat arse and actually cut some rubber. :rolleyes:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Companies can't switch to synthetic rubber overnight

---

Actually they don't switch anything, they simply open the valves a little wider to increase a market place enforced rate of feed demand Jim. Most Refineries don't shut off process feeds, they more or less let them "idle," on demand and price. When Bridgestone wants rubber they'll make a call to the suppliers and the valve will be opened for whatever is required and then squeezed ever so gently back off, but never to full stop. Expensive that start-up and shut-down costs Jim.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by chassamui

I'm hoping she got off her fat arse and actually cut some rubber

---

Actually, this is the precursor to coming later in the week/month for a new loan double the previous...you know better.:rolleyes:

Lots of rubber activity here in the North. Balls loaded up to the overflow levels on many trucks I saw traveling the road into Chiang Rai...who knows?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ltnt

Quote:
Originally Posted by jamescollister
Companies can't switch to synthetic rubber overnight
Actually they don't switch anything, they simply open the valves a little wider to increase a market place enforced rate of feed demand Jim. Most Refineries don't shut off process feeds, they more or less let them "idle," on demand and price. When Bridgestone wants rubber they'll make a call to the suppliers and the valve will be opened for whatever is required and then squeezed ever so gently back off, but never to full stop. Expensive that start-up and shut-down costs Jim.

---

Not talking making SR, but using it, say you make running shoes, crepe rubber soles,
To change over form NR to SR you need to re tool, different machines, different storage conditions etc
The big boys blend SR, NR etc for tires, big operation to convert over to SR.

Rubber markets closed over new year, opened on the 5 th, so a back log sold Monday, Tuesday. Jim

O.K., I can understand that aspect shutting down. Small potatoes relative.

So that's why, I never put that together the holidays...

And that's why we got a shit/average price for cup at auction yesterday. Markets and factories just re-opened. 21.00 baht per kg. Should be better in a fortnight.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

And that's why we got a shit/average price for cup at auction yesterday. Markets and factories just re-opened. 21.00 baht per kg. Should be better in a fortnight.

---

Many place in the whole are still on go slow for the Xmas, new year break, be next week before things get going again.

All in all things looking up, rubber wise, just this oil war that's the problem, can't make heads nor tails of it, Saudis going in to deficit and removed the 3% subsidy for Asian buyers.
Toss a coin and take a punt. Jim

According to the misses, the in laws sold first lot of rubber yesterday, apparently it was +3 and +4 whatever that means and they got 22,000 baht for it, the misses eagerly awaits her share...........

The funnier side of rubber farming:


We have a local old chap that buys our cup. Today Lek, my dear wife was down at the ‘gate’ negotiating to 21.5bt. Old chap gave her a few veggies for new year’s but not to our cutters, Lek yells at him in fun saying “where are veggies for cutters”..He shuffles off to cab and produces a bunch.

Then Lek tells him “last year you gave us a blanket for new years”..Where is this year’s.?He laughs and promises “next time”

Why DO we need a blanket I says later. S’okay Lek says ‘give to someone’s baby…


Lek comes back up to house and we calculate that he had screwed himself out of 30kilo of rubber but seeing as he discounted 9% rather than usual 8% we figured what goes around….
Gotta laugh don’t ya?

If anyone of you has read book one of 'Les Miserable' it is my opinion of my dear wife that she is perhaps a bit like the Bishop of .... Think she would give her last handful of rice or egg to any in need.

Last couple of years many have asked her to run for election as village "headman".
She has consistently declined saying she is not "qualified or smart enough" meaning I think that she is perhaps too honest?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by crepitas

Last couple of years many have asked her to run for election as village "headman".
She has consistently declined saying she is not "qualified or smart enough" meaning I think that she is perhaps too honest?

---

Your question answered in a jiffy there is no "perhaps" in your good lady,s honesty:) , cos having lived in 3 villages ,two here in Issan and one in the South (Koh Samui) its my opinion that all village heads are as bent as corkscrews and are in the job for what they can get out of it by way of "kick backs" hence the veritable fortunes they are prepared to shell out just to get the job in the first place , good an ya Crepitas, it would appear your wife has "principles " a rare quality in many cases here in Thailand .

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by piwanoi

its my opinion that all village heads are as bent as corkscrews

---

I concur Piwanoi. Some years ago a farang got elected as a 'village head', in Isaan, I believe. Does anyone remember that? I wonder if he took the cash?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by piwanoi

its my opinion that all village heads are as bent as corkscrews

---

I concur Piwanoi. Some years ago a farang got elected as a 'village head', in Isaan, I believe. Does anyone remember that? I wonder if he took the cash?

---

True, one can only speculate ,but if the farang was fully "integrated" into the "Thai way" of taking responsibility for the welfare of the poor villagers who voted him in for the price of a good nights piss up and feasting on the couple of pigs provided ,plus plenty of empty promises, one may quite rightly say all he was doing was following "Thai Tradition" and screwing the job for every Baht that was available , honest or otherwise :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by buriramboy

According to the misses, the in laws sold first lot of rubber yesterday, apparently it was +3 and +4 whatever that means and they got 22,000 baht for it, the misses eagerly awaits her share...........

---

The misses has now got her share (sort of) 11,000 baht being kept by her mother. I might actually have to start taking a bit of interest again as I'd as good as given up on ever seeing a satang come back or rather the misses seeing anything.

Article from the Indian rubber forum.

Malaysia’s natural rubber production in November rose 11% from October to 53,040 mt, the Department of Statistics said Monday.
It was, however, down 21.2% from a year earlier, it added.
The country’s natural rubber exports fell 15.1% month on month to 46,425 mt in November, and were down 37% year on year.
Malaysia’s natural rubber stocks remained almost unchanged from October at 132,048 mt as of end-November, the department said.
Year on year, the stocks were down 17.8%.

Some big Rubber Industry meetings going on now in ASEAN. Also something about growers flocking to Buriam to sell rubber stocks to the Government agents at promised subsidized prices?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by piwanoi

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by piwanoi

its my opinion that all village heads are as bent as corkscrews

---

I concur Piwanoi. Some years ago a farang got elected as a 'village head', in Isaan, I believe. Does anyone remember that? I wonder if he took the cash?

---

True, one can only speculate ,but if the farang was fully "integrated" into the "Thai way" of taking responsibility for the welfare of the poor villagers who voted him in for the price of a good nights piss up and feasting on the couple of pigs provided ,plus plenty of empty promises, one may quite rightly say all he was doing was following "Thai Tradition" and screwing the job for every Baht that was available , honest or otherwise :)

---

It's all about honour, Pi....

:rolleyes:

Leaves starting to turn, maybe 2 more weeks of tapping then that's it for the season.
No money in the bank for the dormant period, Buddha will provide.
Wife's off to the farmers bank now, not bad 2% interest loans [if we get it] 100,000 Baht over 5 years, just have to hope rubber picks up a bit next season.

And another year will have passed and that makes it about 5 years I have not done a days paid work.
Between the loan the 15,000 government grant and my very poor cassava crop, may be able to have a beach holiday when the schools finish.
Not a good year by a long shoot, but didn't run out of beer and will live to tap another day. Jim

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jamescollister

off to the farmers bank now, not bad 2% interest loans [if we get it] 100,000 Baht over 5 years

---

Lot of that virus going around now Jim. BIL and others planted red beans and now are getting 37baht a kilo. Yesterday turned in what he calls baskets and reaped 19,000 baht. Not done yet another 7 rai to go. Many here switched to these beans over the cassava and are making a pretty good earner out of it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ltnt

Many here switched to these beans over the cassava and are making a pretty good earner out of it.

---

Monkey see, monkey do. Soon there'll be over production and the market will collapse. And on we go.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ltnt

Many here switched to these beans over the cassava and are making a pretty good earner out of it.

---

Monkey see, monkey do. Soon there'll be over production and the market will collapse. And on we go.

---

Good description Pragmatic ,market stall opens selling cheap pizzas and doing OK, pretty soon there,s 5 selling the same stuff ,after a few weeks 4 close down for lack of custom , lesson is any market commodity will soon be flooded by over production and the price will eventually collapse ,this was seen in quite dramatic fashion with Thaksins Failed rice scheme , were the rich got richer and now the poor are poorer:) .

BP today, Thailand is number 1 in rice production again...happy days are here again.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ltnt

BP today, Thailand is number 1 in rice production again...happy days are here again.

---

I wonder just how much the farmers are getting paid per tonne today in comparison to what they received last year ? happy days are here again:smileylaughing:

My BIL got pretty good money for his rice, but he was one of the first to harvest. Many held on to their rice hoping for the price to go up.

SIL just did 7 rai of red beans and got 49,000 baht for it @38 baht /kilo. 1,290 kilos in case you're calc'ing. Pretty fair days work...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ltnt

SIL just did 7 rai of red beans and got 49,000 baht for it

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ltnt

Pretty fair days work...

---

Is that taking into account her out goings? Thais seem to not understand about including their expenses. They just see the end results and think they've hit the jackpot.

No outgoings, seeds from previous years plantings and her labor and a few hirelings sharing the burden of harvesting...all in the family btw. They all work together, sort of an informal co-op. Wifes brother got 1,100 baht/ton for his rice. Those who waited another month got 1,200/ton. I don't know if he went down to collect the freebee from the new Government @ 1,500/rai or not. That would be a topper wouldn't it? Especially if he got the max amount 15,000.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ltnt

My BIL got pretty good money for his rice, but he was one of the first to harvest. Many held on to their rice hoping for the price to go up.

SIL just did 7 rai of red beans and got 49,000 baht for it @38 baht /kilo. 1,290 kilos in case you're calc'ing. Pretty fair days work...

---

How much income would they have got for 7 rai of rice on the same land?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ltnt

No outgoings, seeds from previous years plantings and her labor and a few hirelings sharing the burden of harvesting...all in the family btw.

---

I don't see that. You can't work on your own land and not take your time into consideration based on that if she hadn't worked on her land for free she could have been earning 300 Baht a day working for someone else. So her time and that of others must be entered as outgoings in the equation. I'm sorry but Thais don't calculate their time as they aren't getting paid, so 49,000 is all profit in their book. Just my take on it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ltnt

No outgoings, seeds from previous years plantings and her labor and a few hirelings sharing the burden of harvesting...all in the family btw.

---

I don't see that. You can't work on your own land and not take your time into consideration based on that if she hadn't worked on her land for free she could have been earning 300 Baht a day working for someone else. So her time and that of others must be entered as outgoings in the equation. I'm sorry but Thais don't calculate their time as they aren't getting paid, so 49,000 is all profit in their book. Just my take on it.

---

That's understandable...
Yet, a common trait not to calculate one's [and other family members] own hours when working the land - regardless of what is being produced, especially when working their own land alongside immediate or extended family.

The seasonal end "profits" might be divvied up and shared when brought to market, more common than not.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ltnt

No outgoings, seeds from previous years plantings and her labor and a few hirelings sharing the burden of harvesting...all in the family btw.

---

I don't see that. You can't work on your own land and not take your time into consideration based on that if she hadn't worked on her land for free she could have been earning 300 Baht a day working for someone else. So her time and that of others must be entered as outgoings in the equation. I'm sorry but Thais don't calculate their time as they aren't getting paid, so 49,000 is all profit in their book. Just my take on it.

---

Spot on Pragmatic , unfortunately the Thai logic that the time spent working for themselves plus fertilizer etc is some how of no account when they could be earning 300/400 a day with food thrown in working for some one else or a company some how evades them when they do a final reckoning as to just how much they have actually profited for their labours,maybe thats why the Thai Chinese who run this Country both politically and economy call these Issan Thai's as buffalo's :)