Elon Musk has announced a new schedule for Mars. Sounds way overambitious but I am sure they will try to meet the schedule at any cost. Cost presently not an issue. They earn so much with Starlink that they can afford to splash billions.

5 cargo Starships to Mars in 2026

Crew to Mars in 2028, if the 2026 cargo missions are successful.

My opinion on why they go for it is that the incoming Administration will remove bureaucratic obstacles. They may never be able to get permissions under a Democrat Administration. Present rules would not even allow NASA to fly people to Mars. Since NASA timelines expect crew flights not before 2040, they are not working on changing rules now. But even if they do, the rules would change to allow a NASA style mission, not a SpaceX mission. That's because there was a proposal to allow crew landing in areas only that have no water. Not a big problem for NASA short surface stays. Not possible for SpaceX missions with almost 2 years on the surface and the need to produce a large amount of propellant from water and atmospheric CO2.

Incoming NASA administrator is Jared Isaacman, who has flown private missions on Dragon in preparation for crew Starship. Guess is he will remove such obstacles, enabling flights to Mars with Starship. He was expected to be commander of the first crew Starship flight to Mars. If the schedule holds, he will likely lose that privilege. But he will enable the flight to happen, which is more important to him, I guess.

To be even remotely realistic, upcoming test flights will need to go well.