Thread: SpaceX - On to Mars

Launch delayed by one day due to weather.

- SpaceX - Launches

Wind conditions good on Nov. 19, but some rain. We will see.

Flight was successful.

Booster landing on chopsticks was cancelled due to problems at the chopsticks. The Booster was go for catch. Too bad, they would have really liked to get this one back. Though not for reflight. It is still version 1. Only coming version 2 is expected to be reflight capable.

Ship came down right on target, as planned. Less burn through than on previous flight. Despite removing a number of heat shield tiles. Version 2 should have no burn through. The flap design is changed. Next flight will be version 2 for the Ship. Booster will still be version 1.

Version 2 is also only temporary. If things go as planned the much more capable version 3 will fly by end of next year. Taller, more propellant, payload expected to be 200t to LEO.

Crazy to think, that Starship, the upper stage, carries more propellant on launch than most other rocket first stages.

Starshilp flight 7 coming up. Fri Jan 10, 2025 23:00 MEZ

A long list of improvements on Starship. The Booster is an old type.

Highlights

They refly one engine from flight 5, the one they caught on the chopsticks.

They will deploy 10 Starlink sat simulators to test the deployment system.

They will test a few metallic heat shield tiles, one of them actively cooled.

They will fly a test version of the Starship catch hardware pins. To see if they survive reentry. No catch attempt though.

- SpaceX - Launches

UPCOMING LAUNCH


Starship's Seventh Flight Test
The seventh flight test of Starship is preparing to launch.


The upcoming flight test will launch a new generation ship with significant upgrades, attempt Starship’s first payload deployment test, fly multiple reentry experiments geared towards ship catch and reuse, and launch and return the Super Heavy booster.


A block of planned upgrades to the Starship upper stage will debut on this flight test, bringing major improvements to reliability and performance. The vehicle’s forward flaps have been reduced in size and shifted towards the vehicle tip and away from the heat shield, significantly reducing their exposure to reentry heating while simplifying the underlying mechanisms and protective tiling. Redesigns to the propulsion system, including a 25 percent increase in propellant volume, the vacuum jacketing of feedlines, a new fuel feedline system for the vehicle’s Raptor vacuum engines, and an improved propulsion avionics module controlling vehicle valves and reading sensors, all add additional vehicle performance and the ability to fly longer missions. The ship’s heat shield will also use the latest generation tiles and includes a backup layer to protect from missing or damaged tiles.


The vehicle’s avionics underwent a complete redesign, adding additional capability and redundancy for increasingly complex missions like propellant transfer and ship return to launch site. Avionics upgrades include a more powerful flight computer, integrated antennas which combine Starlink, GNSS, and backup RF communication functions into each unit, redesigned inertial navigation and star tracking sensors, integrated smart batteries and power units that distribute data and 2.7MW of power across the ship to 24 high-voltage actuators, and an increase to more than 30 vehicle cameras giving engineers insight into hardware performance across the vehicle during flight. With Starlink, the vehicle is capable of streaming more than 120 Mbps of real-time high-definition video and telemetry in every phase of flight, providing invaluable engineering data to rapidly iterate across all systems.


While in space, Starship will deploy 10 Starlink simulators, similar in size and weight to next-generation Starlink satellites as the first exercise of a satellite deploy mission. The Starlink simulators will be on the same suborbital trajectory as Starship, with splashdown targeted in the Indian Ocean. A relight of a single Raptor engine while in space is also planned.


The flight test will include several experiments focused on ship return to launch site and catch. On Starship’s upper stage, a significant number of tiles will be removed to stress-test vulnerable areas across the vehicle. Multiple metallic tile options, including one with active cooling, will test alternative materials for protecting Starship during reentry. On the sides of the vehicle, non-structural versions of ship catch fittings are installed to test the fittings’ thermal performance, along with a smoothed and tapered edge of the tile line to address hot spots observed during reentry on Starship’s sixth flight test. The ship’s reentry profile is being designed to intentionally stress the structural limits of the flaps while at the point of maximum entry dynamic pressure. Finally, several radar sensors will be tested on the tower chopsticks with the goal of increasing the accuracy when measuring distances between the chopsticks and a returning vehicle during catch.


The Super Heavy booster will utilize flight proven hardware for the first time, reusing a Raptor engine from the booster launched and returned on Starship’s fifth flight test. Hardware upgrades to the launch and catch tower will increase reliability for booster catch, including protections to the sensors on the tower chopsticks that were damaged at launch and resulted in the booster offshore divert on Starship’s previous flight test.


Distinct vehicle and pad criteria must be met prior to a return and catch of the Super Heavy booster, requiring healthy systems on the booster and tower and a final manual command from the mission’s Flight Director. If this command is not sent prior to the completion of the boostback burn, or if automated health checks show unacceptable conditions with Super Heavy or the tower, the booster will default to a trajectory that takes it to a landing burn and soft splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico. We accept no compromises when it comes to ensuring the safety of the public and our team, and the return will only take place if conditions are right.


The returning booster will slow down from supersonic speeds, resulting in audible sonic booms in the area around the landing zone. Generally, the only impact to those in the surrounding area of a sonic boom is the brief thunder-like noise with variables like weather and distance from the return site determining the magnitude experienced by observers.


This new year will be transformational for Starship, with the goal of bringing reuse of the entire system online and flying increasingly ambitious missions as we iterate towards being able to send humans and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, and Mars.

Elon Musk has announced a new schedule for Mars. Sounds way overambitious but I am sure they will try to meet the schedule at any cost. Cost presently not an issue. They earn so much with Starlink that they can afford to splash billions.

5 cargo Starships to Mars in 2026

Crew to Mars in 2028, if the 2026 cargo missions are successful.

My opinion on why they go for it is that the incoming Administration will remove bureaucratic obstacles. They may never be able to get permissions under a Democrat Administration. Present rules would not even allow NASA to fly people to Mars. Since NASA timelines expect crew flights not before 2040, they are not working on changing rules now. But even if they do, the rules would change to allow a NASA style mission, not a SpaceX mission. That's because there was a proposal to allow crew landing in areas only that have no water. Not a big problem for NASA short surface stays. Not possible for SpaceX missions with almost 2 years on the surface and the need to produce a large amount of propellant from water and atmospheric CO2.

Incoming NASA administrator is Jared Isaacman, who has flown private missions on Dragon in preparation for crew Starship. Guess is he will remove such obstacles, enabling flights to Mars with Starship. He was expected to be commander of the first crew Starship flight to Mars. If the schedule holds, he will likely lose that privilege. But he will enable the flight to happen, which is more important to him, I guess.

To be even remotely realistic, upcoming test flights will need to go well.

Originally Posted by Takeovers

They earn so much with Starlink

Just looked. They're looking at around 1 billion $ a month profit in 2025.

With a B.

A month.

Profit.

That's some coin. Well done to the fooker.

Originally Posted by Edmond

Profit.

No, that's revenue. Profit is less.

But still, it is more than they are able to spend. SpaceX made an offer to investors to buy back shares at a kind of phantasy valuation of $350 billion. But even at that valuation barely any investor was willing to sell.

^ Just re-googled and you are indeed correct sir.

Originally Posted by Norton

Stranger in a Strange Land

Love this one. Exotic even for Robert A. Heinlein.

Had to google the other one. Know the story too, but did not recall the title.


In old SF it was often some private company that did the advances. That happens now, too.

Originally Posted by Takeovers

In old SF it was often some private company that did the advances. That happens now, too.

Yep and expect it to increase as it has in the aviation industry.

Originally Posted by Takeovers

In old SF it was often some private company that did the advances

with a wonderful synchronicity as is modern SF aka San Francisco

From first launch attempt, that was cancelled. Then some delays due to weather.

Originally Posted by Takeovers

Starshilp flight 7 coming up. Fri Jan 10, 2025 23:00 MEZ

A long list of improvements on Starship. The Booster is an old type.

Highlights

They refly one engine from flight 5, the one they caught on the chopsticks.

They will deploy 10 Starlink sat simulators to test the deployment system.

They will test a few metallic heat shield tiles, one of them actively cooled.

They will fly a test version of the Starship catch hardware pins. To see if they survive reentry. No catch attempt though.

Today same time they will make a new attempts. Weather is marginally better. Not sure if they will be able to launch. On previous launches they took some risks. With the advanced design of this launch they really want o succeed. So they look at good launch conditions.

- SpaceX - Launches

First stage flight was successful. Booster returned to the launch site and landed on the chopsticks. There is some speculation, that this booster might refly. But nothing official in that direction. It did fly one engine from the previous landed booster.

The second stage, with the much changed design, failed on ascent, shortly before reaching the intended near orbit trajectory. The debris was caught on video from a small island north of Cuba.






Elon Musk tweeted that the cause is known. They will do some risk mitigation on the next flight. That flight is still expected late february. I guess, it may slip a few weeks from there.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1880060983734858130?s=46

Preliminary indication is that we had an oxygen/fuel leak in the cavity above the ship engine firewall that was large enough to build pressure in excess of the vent capacity.


Apart from obviously double-checking for leaks, we will add fire suppression to that volume and probably increase vent area. Nothing so far suggests pushing next launch past next month.

Have little time, will travel for 2 weeks.

They have hotfired Booster and Ship for flight 8. Ship fired for almost one minute, the longest fire by far. Common expectation is they tested some mitigation for the Ship failure on flight 7.

SpaceX want to fly No. 8 this month. But the failure of flight 7 triggered a mishap investigation by FAA. So it depends on when FAA will issue the flight license.

https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1889799254472098080

Video and pictures of the ship test at the Masseys test site.

Flight 8 of Starship is imminent. The launch window will open at 5:30 p.m. CT today.

This is a repeat of flight 7. On that flight Starship failed. Cause was the newly designed propellant feed lines breaking due to vibrations. SpaceX has implemented at least a temporary fix. They urgently need a good flight and reentry of Starship with improved heat shields. If this flight goes well, they may try on the next flight to land Starship on the chopsticks. They already have 2 landed boosters and it is widely expected though not confirmed that booster will refly soon. Demonstrating advances of Starship will help the push to cancel the absurdly expensive SLS. Hopefullly Orion and the lunar gateway, too.

- SpaceX - Launches

The eighth flight test of Starship is preparing to launch as soon as Monday, March 3.


A live webcast of the flight test will begin about 40 minutes before liftoff, which you can watch here and on X @SpaceX. You can also watch the webcast on the X TV app. The launch window will open at 5:30 p.m. CT. As is the case with all developmental testing, the schedule is dynamic and likely to change, so be sure to check in here and stay tuned to our X account for updates.


After completing the investigation into the loss of Starship early on its seventh flight test, several hardware and operational changes have been made to increase reliability of the upper stage. You can read the full summary of the mishap investigation here.


The upcoming flight will fly the same suborbital trajectory as previous missions and will target objectives not reached on the previous test, including Starship’s first payload deployment and multiple reentry experiments geared towards returning the upper stage to the launch site for catch. The flight also includes the launch, return, and catch of the Super Heavy booster.


Extensive upgrades to Starship’s upper stage debuted on the previous flight test, focused on adding reliability and performance across all phases of flight. Starship’s forward flaps have been upgraded to significantly reduce their exposure to reentry heating while simplifying the underlying mechanisms and protective tiling. Redesigns to the propulsion system, including a 25 percent increase in propellant volume over previous generations, add additional vehicle performance and the ability to fly longer duration missions. And the vehicle’s avionics underwent a complete redesign, adding additional capability and redundancy for increasingly complex missions like propellant transfer and ship return to the launch site.


During the flight test, Starship will deploy four Starlink simulators, similar in size to next-generation Starlink satellites, as the first exercise of a satellite deploy mission. The Starlink simulators will be on the same suborbital trajectory as Starship and are expected to demise upon entry. A relight of a single Raptor engine while in space is also planned.


The flight test includes several experiments focused on enabling Starship’s upper stage to return to the launch site. A significant number of tiles have been removed from Starship to stress-test vulnerable areas across the vehicle. Multiple metallic tile options, including one with active cooling, will test alternative materials for protecting Starship during reentry. On the sides of the vehicle, non-structural versions of Starship’s catch fittings are installed to test the fittings’ thermal performance, along with a section of the tile line receiving a smoothed and tapered edge to address hot spots observed during reentry on Starship’s sixth flight test. Starship’s reentry profile is designed to intentionally stress the structural limits of the upper stage’s rear flaps while at the point of maximum entry dynamic pressure. Finally, several radar sensors will once again be tested on the launch and catch tower’s chopsticks with the goal of increasing the accuracy when measuring distances between the chopsticks and a returning vehicle.


The Super Heavy booster for this flight features upgraded avionics, including a more powerful flight computer, improved power and network distribution, and integrated smart batteries.


Distinct vehicle and pad criteria must be met prior to the return and catch of the Super Heavy booster, requiring healthy systems on the booster and tower and a final manual command from the mission’s Flight Director. If this command is not sent prior to the completion of the boostback burn, or if automated health checks show unacceptable conditions with Super Heavy or the tower, the booster will default to a trajectory for a soft splashdown in the Gulf of America. We accept no compromises when it comes to ensuring the safety of the public and our team, and booster return will only take place if conditions are right.


The returning booster will slow down from supersonic speeds, resulting in audible sonic booms in the area around the landing zone. Generally, the only impact to those in the surrounding area of a sonic boom is the brief thunder-like noise with variables like weather and distance from the return site determining the magnitude experienced by observers.


Developmental testing by definition is unpredictable. But by putting flight hardware in a flight environment as frequently as possible, we’re able to quickly learn and execute design changes as we seek to bring Starship online as a fully and rapidly reusable vehicle.

NASA Spaceflight Forum begins a live stream in a few minutes ahead of the launch. Lots of banter and some information, filling many hours ahead of the planned Starship 8 flight. Despite the name they are not affiliated with NASA, but NASA approved the name.

The launch attempt was cancelled less than a minute before launch due to some technical issues on the ground and on the rocket. THey plan another atempt today.

- SpaceX - Launches

There may be weather issues that can force another delay.