Thread: RIP Bitcoin

I think that's a fair assessment Plan B.

I really think you're right in the sense that what you're really buying with these currencies is not a store of value or even a tradeable currency at all but a limited stake in the technology itself. I think that's worth something for sure, even if its mostly just potential at this point. The biggest problem I see is that you really don't know who the winner will be on the technology side (or if there will even be one/two winners). It might be bitcoin, might be another that doesn't even exist yet. At some point that is where the value will lie long term, owning a piece of the technology that winds up being used. The currencies themselves are basically an afterthought that you use to translate the value of the technology back to dollars. In my opinion.

Congratulations are certainly in order for all those who have made money thusfar. Any investment that makes money (and I'm talking dollars here) is a good one. I hope everyone that invests in this wins.

this is a very fair (IMO) article on bitcoin's future:

https://techcrunch.com/2017/12/03/me...tcoins-future/

Is Bitcoin going to become the dominant global currency for daily transactions? I really, really don’t think that’s going to happen either, for numerous reasons, some of which I can’t believe I actually have to spell out to Bitcoin true believers, such as: Bitcoin is deflationary and a little inflation is actually not a bad thing; fiat may technically be a four-letter word but only libertarians think it’s an obscenity, and fiat currencies are not “backed by nothing,” they’re backed by the strength of the economies they denominate;

So what are we left with? Permissionless cryptocurrencies, of which Bitcoin will possibly-to-likely remain the most prominent, aren’t going away, but will be used in limited albeit significant circumstances: as digital gold; as an international transfer currency for individuals and small businesses; to skirt and avoid the law and the taxman; but not really on an everyday basis, except in nations whose own currencies have been seriously debased. Does that mean its current valuation is justified in the long term? I can give you a very firm answer for that: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

and this one is more pessimistic (a guy who promotes blockchain and has a company that provides a platform for companies to use blockchain to make their business ecosystem run more smoothly and efficiently):

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-eme...systemic-risk/

In the current environment, there are a number of ways such a shock could arise. To begin with, I seriously question the intermediaries’ and traders’ ability to top up their USD holdings quickly enough to catch up with their depositors’ and counterparties’ paper gains in Bitcoin. There is also the possibility that, in the event of a correction or an enforcement action, a risk-averse bank to a major service provider withdraws either credit or banking services to that provider, compromising that service provider’s ability to convert BTC into dollars, provide margin lending, or even to hold fiat deposits at all.

In case you didn’t know, Bitcoin is the Gom Jabbar of high finance. Cypherpunks who have populated the space to date hold the line because they do not care about money, and therefore do not know fear.

These new people are different. The only reason they are here is the money.

They reek of fear.

When we consider that fresh, naive amateurs are (and their money is) flowing into the sector at a rate of millions of people per month, we should also understand that these amateurs are more susceptible to the animal spirits than their stoic, abrasive, less-socially-adept, battle-hardened forebears.

They will be prone to cut and run. As such, a shock to the system, such as an exchange being taken down in a necessary and overdue enforcement action, could lead to a loss in confidence in the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem as a whole and a stampede for the exits the likes of which Bitcoin has not seen to date.

As Bitcoin qua decentralized bank is running a fractional reserve with a chronic shortage of dollars, a shock therefore has the potential to not just drive the price of Bitcoin down a little bit, but also lead to a major liquidity crunch and abject panic.

We know that cryptocurrency marketing is writing checks the technology can’t cash; most of these systems are unusable as backbones for global finance. It is a matter of time before the punter on the street becomes as disillusioned as I, an irascible blockchain software entrepreneur, have become.

It’s just that none of the newcomers know what they’re doing, and most of the old-timers who have figured this out are keeping their mouths shut out of self-interest.

Put another way, this is a disaster waiting to happen. Fortunately for us, 2008 is not ancient history, and the fact that Bitcoin is a classic, manic bubble is so transparently obvious that it should be impossible for thinking people to deal with it otherwise. There are no excuses for not doing right by the societies and taxpayers who had to bail out the financial services industry last time around.

Originally Posted by baldrick

Earl stop being so evangelical.

People interested will research

why ?

I think Earl is doing an excellent job at promoting the thing for what it really is, that is a scam and a honey pot for retards and criminals

Originally Posted by Farangrakthai

These new people are different. The only reason they are here is the money.

They reek of fear.

I agree with this, and this is ultimately in my view the best long term counterargument against BTC. The chickens are going to come home to roost on this as more and more people climb on top the gravy train. The creation of ETF's may actually help to mitigate some of this problem in a way, since these people won't be required to be paid through an untested exchange that may not be able to cash the IOU's they have written. Still, its a major problem that is pretty unique to cryptos relative to other investments.

Originally Posted by Farangrakthai

Cypherpunks who have populated the space to date hold the line because they do not care about money, and therefore do not know fear.

Nah, he's wrong here. Its more this:

Originally Posted by Farangrakthai

battle-hardened forebears

They care about money. But they've rode the wave before. Even then, you can be certain they won't stick around to see their whole fortune vanish.

Back up about 25% from yesterday's dip.

Approaching $17k


16859.28 US Dollar


Almost double what I first got in at 2 weeks ago.

Originally Posted by Luigi

Almost double what I first got in at 2 weeks ago.

Amazing. And completely insane.

Originally Posted by Luigi

Back up about 25% from yesterday's dip.

Approaching $17k


16859.28 US Dollar


Almost double what I first got in at 2 weeks ago.

let's hope it goes to 20,000 USD

before a spectacular crash to 100 USD

No, let's not.


$100k by the end of 2018. Su Su.

Luigi has not dropped a bob in BTC

Originally Posted by Luigi

No, let's not.


$100k by the end of 2018. Su Su.

100k by the end of January 2018 would be fantastic, why wait end of the year

Originally Posted by Pattaya Plies

Luigi has not dropped a bob in BTC

I think he took the pledge money from the Pies Gates to invest in bitcoins,

a lot of pies will come out of it for the starving children,

Luigi is on a run of form since he now back in the kitchen hata tata

Originally Posted by redhaze

Almost double what I first got in at 2 weeks ago.

Amazing. And completely insane.

Most on here were saying it's gonna hit 10k and collapse. It's finished. That's the big number, it's done and gonna crash to $1.


Actually was quite an easy way to double the donation money, to be honest.

Originally Posted by Luigi

Back up about 25% from yesterday's dip.

Approaching $17k


16859.28 US Dollar


Almost double what I first got in at 2 weeks ago.

Moving closer to that condo...

Originally Posted by Dragonfly

100k by the end of January 2018 would be fantastic

That's the spirit.

Switch over now to Channel 29 Thai TV

Originally Posted by redhaze

At some point that is where the value will lie long term, owning a piece of the technology that winds up being used.

think it's being considered more of a commodity.

though, the blockchain technology will certainly become more widely used with bitcoin being just a small percent of the usage:

A World Economic Forum report from September 2015 predicted that by 2025 ten percent of global GDP would be stored on blockchains technology

Originally Posted by redhaze

The creation of ETF's may actually help to mitigate some of this problem in a way,

we'll see. but trading bitcoin as a commodity on the futures market is already causing push-back, like from Walt Lukken CEO, Futures Industry Association

​There's an argument brewing over the launch of bitcoin futures, Business Insider - Business Insider Singapore

CME and CBOE are both "self-certifying" their products, meaning they are launching without the official blessing of the CFTC. Lukken said: "We believe that this expedited self-certification process for these novel products does not align with the potential risks that underlie their trading and should be reviewed."


Lukken said the clearinghouses that are members of the FIA are worried about their potential exposure to these new products. Clearinghouses sit in between two trading parties and guarantee derivative contracts in the event one of the traders goes bust. These intermediaries are meant to stop a domino effect of bust contracts that could spark another financial crisis.


But the volatile and novel nature of bitcoin means clearinghouses are unsure how to account for bitcoin future contracts. It is not unusual for bitcoin to swing as much as 10% in a day, compared to more established assets like stocks and commodities, which rarely move more than a few % in a day.

Originally Posted by Luigi

Almost double what I first got in at 2 weeks ago.

Really?? Since you are glued to the charts (even at 3 am), would you like to verify that claim?
You announced your initial purchase, increased it to 31K, then announced a further 100k investement 2 weeks ago.
I can't be effed looking at BTC history, but since you follow it so avidly, you must have the charts and figures to hand.

So, 31k invested and maybe a further 100k.
Hmmm.
Keep up the "I'm a player" facade. Hope you lose it all, and I suspect you will.
Unless you take my advice and sell out now

'tards do get all worked up over Lulu.

Originally Posted by Dragonfly

how soon we forget, crypto is the new subprime, yet very limited, for bitcoin investors

not likely limited (some more from the same article posted above):

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-eme...systemic-risk/

As of right now, the notional value of the cryptocurrency sector is roughly a third the size of Long-Term Capital Managementat its peak.

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-eme...systemic-risk/

Cryptocurrency is, admittedly, much smaller than the subprime bubble that popped a decade ago, which was roughly two orders of magnitude larger than bitcoin today. But bitcoin has shown, on several occasions, a persistent ability to defy detractors like me to grow an order of magnitude in less than 12 months; if it does so again, it will be three times larger than LTCM. LTCM on its own very nearly ruined the world in 1998.

If we aren’t careful, this is the kind of market where a financial institution can get in serious trouble extremely quickly (imagine the damage a character like Nick Leeson or Kweku Adoboli could have done trading Bitcoin contracts – which are coming soon to both the CME and, reportedly, Nasdaq).

and luigi (if really invested) will like the first of these 3 predictions (from the financial times):

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/12/...kes-world-gdp/

1.

And since bitcoin has no fundamental value that takes the next technical target point to as far as $47,400.

2. what will happen in the future's markets:

Since the risk must be transferred to someone if the futures are to offer the service the natural shorts want, we’re left with only three scenarios going forward.

One: the futures will flop.

Two: the risk will be transferred elsewhere, most likely into the clearing houses that support the futures exchanges (to the risk of the entire trading community).

Or three: a less established player with a lot more tolerance for risk — possibly a natural long — steps into the market comes into absorb the risk.

Though, it’s worth noting that option number three doesn’t necessarily stop scenario number two from playing out, given any such entity would still have to be serviced by the CME/CBOE clearing systems.

• Bitcoin can be seen as a currency of video gamers, by video gamers, and for video gamers. What do I mean by this?
• Users of other currencies find utility in a stable value. But not here in Bitcoin world.
• The reality of Bitcoin is that users are also players. And the objective of this game is the highest possible score. • The path to wealth for Bitcoin users is to drive the value higher, and higher, and higher.
• This dynamic and the above cited freedoms make Bitcoin a likely future home of the largest speculative bubble in recorded history.
• And the lack of law enforcement also make Bitcoin a potential future home of the largest theft ever.

3. similarites to the the cinergy and entergy electricity contract launched by Nymex in 1998:

The history is telling. Brokers, unable to offset flows naturally in the market, began to step out. They had no incentive to keep supporting the contract. The result: thin trade and little to no liquidity.

Traders complained that it was impossible to liquidate positions and unforeseen spikes became a perpetual problem.

As they walked away, futures volumes died and OTC markets took over. The contracts had to be delisted.

Originally Posted by Maanaam

Really?? Since you are glued to the charts (even at 3 am), would you like to verify that claim?
You announced your initial purchase, increased it to 31K, then announced a further 100k investement 2 weeks ago.

You missed when I topped it up to 1m baht.




Doing okay.