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  1. #251
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Nice try, Bashar, I'm sure they will swallow that.

    Syria issues 'general amnesty'

    Sun Jan 15 2012 10:39
    © REUTERS/Osman Orsal

    Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has issued an amnesty covering all crimes committed during the country's ten-month uprising.
    The President was reported on Syrian state television as having issued Legislative Decree No. 10, stating: "A general amnesty is granted for crimes committed in the context of the events taking place since March 15, 2011 till the date of issuing the decree.
    "The decree includes the crimes related to the laws on peaceful demonstration, carrying or possessing unlicensed weapons and ammunition and draft evasion. The fugitives cannot benefit from the decree unless they turn themselves in prior to January 31st 2012."
    International observers admitted they were surprised at the development, whilst some analysts remain sceptical about the amnesty and its aims.
    Meanwhile, UN chief Ban Ki-moon urged Syria's President to halt the violence which has marred the uprising and killed an estimated 5,000 people, stating that "the path of repression is a dead end".

  2. #252
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda
    International observers admitted they were surprised at the development
    I wonder who would be surprised. It is the same old tactic. Not a single opposition member in Syria is suicidal enough to take this "offer". And Assad knows it, that is why he makes the offer, and his supporters will use it for propaganda.

    It is just the same as declaring the end of attacks while increasing their intensity. The same as was done by Ghaddafi.

  3. #253
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    You nailed it Takeovers. It's a nice bit of propaganda, but anyone handing themselves in will be lucky to live.

    I'm sure a few token plants will hand themselves in and say how right Assad is, etc.

  4. #254
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Editorial: Syrian quagmire Monday, 16 January 2012 06:27



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    As the Syrian crisis drags on, there seems to be a certain lack of cohesion in the Arab reaction. On the one hand, the team of Arab League monitors already working in Syria has failed to impress both the Syrian opposition and the international community, with some quarters calling the mission a failure. Secondly, President Bashar Al Assad is going ahead with a slew of measures to break the will of the opposition and regain control over the violence hit nation.
    Assad yesterday announced an amnesty to citizens who have taken up arms against him. A Syrian news agency report said the amnesty for “crimes committed in the context of the events that occurred from March 15, 2011, until January 15, 2012” would run until the end of January for army deserters and people who possessed illegal arms or who violated laws on peaceful protest. The amnesty is the second to be announced by the president since the uprising erupted in March last year, which has so far killed more than 5,000 people. The first one fell on deaf ears, and the response to the current one too is expected to be the same. The protesters have taken to the streets demanding the ouster of President Assad and an amnesty offer is not an answer to that demand. But it’s worth noting that the president is trying to wean the protesters away from the streets with a number reconciliatory steps and that can throw hurdles in the international community’s attempts to force his fall.
    At the same time, there has been talk of sending Arab troops to Syria which has evoked positive and negative responses from Arab leaders. Former Arab League secretary general Amr Mussa said the League should consider sending troops and start consultations on the issue, while Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki has warned severely against the move saying any foreign military intervention in the country would spark an “explosion” across the entire Middle East.
    The Arab League’s experience of intervention in the Syrian crisis should send a powerful message to the pan-Arab body – that it needs to tread extremely cautiously while planning the next move, because the reputation of the body is at stake. A wrong move can boomerang violently and fritter away the progress which the Syrian opposition has made so far, while planned, intelligent interventions can enhance its standing. Unlike in Libya, the West has no appetite for an intervention in Syria and is relying completely on the Arab League to dethrone Assad.
    Given the lack of complete unity among Arab leaders, sending troops will be an idea that will require serious groundwork, determination and a clear focus.
    The next post may be brought to you by my little bitch Spamdreth

  5. #255
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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  6. #256
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Syrian legislator joins anti-Assad uprising
    Imad Ghalioun, who left Syria for Cairo, says Homs, the city he represented, is "disaster stricken".
    Last Modified: 16 Jan 2012 13:21


    A member of Syria's parliament has left the country and says he is joining the opposition movement against President Bashar al-Assad, as the crackdown on anti-government protests continues.

    Imad Ghalioun, who represented the central city of Homs, told the Dubai-based al-Arabiya TV that the city is "disaster stricken" and has been subjected to sweeping human rights violations.

    Homs has been one of the most volatile regions in Syria since the uprising against Assad began in March.

    Speaking late on Sunday from Cairo, the Egyptian capital, Ghalioun said he was able to leave Syria before a travel ban was imposed on officials.

    He said there are many legislators who support the uprising but have not said so publicly.

    The UN says about 400 people have been killed in Syrian in the last three weeks, on top of an earlier estimate of more than 5,000 killed since March.

    On Monday, activists reported the deaths of at least five people across the country, most of whom died in the city of Homs.

    The latest report of violence came as the political and military opposition to Assad announced on Monday that they had set up a hotline to co-ordinate their action aimed at bringing down the government.

    'Strengthening defectors' capacity'

    The Syrian National Council, the main opposition bloc, said in a statement on Monday the decision was taken in talks on Saturday with the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which is comprised of deserters from the military.

    A liaison office was set up and "a hotline to follow internal political developments on the ground", it said. It was unclear where the office would be located.

    The statement said further meetings would be held involving military experts "to strengthen the capacity of the FSA against regime forces and to protect civilian regions which the regime wants to raid or pillage".


    Syrian fighters have regrouped in Lebanon to plan raids on Syrian government checkpoints [Al Jazeera]

    The talks also focused on efforts to "restructure FSA units and create a modern and flexible structure ... to allow for rapid deployment" and cope with the daily inflow of deserting officers and soldiers.

    The FSA claims to have gathered some 40,000 fighters under its command since an anti-government movement broke out last March.

    In a separate development, Assad issued on Sunday a decree granting amnesty to anyone who committed crimes "in the context of the events taking place since March 15, 2011, till the date of issuing the decree", SANA state news agency reported.

    Since the outbreak of the uprising SANA said that Assad freed 3,952 prisoners.

    The opposition, however, said that there are thousands more in Syrian prisons.

    Assad has made similar decrees on three previous occasions in May, June and November. Sunday's announcement was made on the official SANA news agency and broadcast on state television.

    On the international front, Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general, urged Assad to stop the violence.

    "Today, I say again to President Assad of Syria: stop the violence. Stop killing your people. The path of repression is a dead end," Ban said in a keynote address at a conference in Beirut, the Lebanese capital, on democracy in the Arab world.

  7. #257
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    "Technical stopover" in Syria of Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov [Voltaire Network]



    "Aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, the jewel of the Russian fleet, reset sail on Tuesday, 10 January 2012, after a three-day stopover at the Syrian port of Tartous, ostensibly to refuel.

    The ship was flanked by five other boats and several submarines. Normally, this type of ship requires escort vessels, but, in this case, it was the other way around. Two of the boats were transporting large equipment, likely to include batteries of S-300 surface-to-air missile systems, the most sophisticated in the world. In addition, a hefty shipment of Russian munitions for the Syrian army was briefly held up in Cyprus before being allowed to return to sea.

    Experts agree that Moscow could have manifested its support for Syria without setting the bar so high. Russia’s aim was mainly to warn against any attempt by the U.S. of exclusive domination of the region and against any temptation on Turkey’s part to play a prominent role in Central Asia.

    The fleet was greeted by General Daoud Rajha (center of photo). Many Syrian voices spoke out their gratitude to the Navy and the entire Russian people for such a powerful show of solidarity at a time when the country is in the throes of a destabilization offensive by Western, regional and world powers.

    The port of Tartous is being renovated to accommodate in future all types of Russian Navy vessels. It hosts the Russian Navy at no charge."
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  8. #258
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda
    A member of Syria's parliament has left the country
    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda
    Imad Ghalioun, who represented the central city of Homs,
    One swallow doesn't make a summer

    Syria has 14 "Governates" which in turn are divided into 260 "districts". One defection doesn't seem to be a large % of the government of Syria, when it gets to 30-40% Assad may have a problem

    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda
    On the international front, Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general, urged Assad to stop the violence.

    "Today, I say again to President Assad of Syria: stop the violence. Stop killing your people. The path of repression is a dead end," Ban said in a keynote address at a conference in Beirut, the Lebanese capital, on democracy in the Arab world.
    Did the illustrious Mr Ki-Moon ask the SFC or SFA themselves to stop the violence, to stop the killing? Did he state to them that killing is a dead end?
    Last edited by OhOh; 17-01-2012 at 02:44 AM.

  9. #259
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    !

    Commentators from Beirut, US and London speak mainly about Syrian problems but include the Greater Middle East implications. Some reinforce Harry's map, above, indicating most of the fighting is going on Syria's borders - infiltration a la the El Salvador invasion/uprising.
    Last edited by OhOh; 17-01-2012 at 02:24 AM.

  10. #260
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    Full speech English Transcript can be found here:
    SONS OF MALCOLM: FULL SPEECH OF SYRIAN PRESIDENT, ASSAD

  11. #261
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    it's really time that Iran and Syria tell the US to fuck off,

    I really hope they sink one or two US ships for good measure so Obama and the Pentagon gets the message,

    I really think we will go to war and that will cover Iran and Syria,

  12. #262
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Tuesday, Jan. 17, 2012

    EDITORIAL
    The Syrian charade

    There have been 300 days of protest against the government of Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad. They have made no dent in the government's resolve. Even the presence of an Arab League observer group has had no impact on Damascus's readiness to bring all its firepower to bear against civilian protestors. The most recent developments suggest that the situation will further deteriorate. All parties to this mess are pretending the truth is other than what it plainly is: A government is committing crimes against its people.

    Sporadic protests began in Syria almost exactly a year ago, but they only became mass demonstrations in March. As the Arab Spring spread across the region, Syrian protestors seized the initiative thinking that their time had come as well, and the uprising took on a truly national character. They demanded more rights and the institution of genuine democracy in their country.
    In response, the Syrian government made several concessions, including the lifting of the emergency law that had been in force for nearly five decades that permitted the suspension of the constitution. In a national address, Mr. Assad promised "national dialogue" that would include movement toward reform, parliamentary elections, and greater freedoms. Later that summer, a draft law was introduced in parliament that would liberalize politics by allowing more political parties.
    While calling for reform, Mr. Assad would at the same time dismiss protestors as terrorists, Western lackeys or Islamic revolutionaries. The government also stepped up efforts to end the demonstrations by force. Cities in which large protests occurred were subject to virtual sieges. The military attacked protestors and tried to end demonstrations by force with tanks, artillery and snipers. It is estimated that more than 6,200 people have been killed during the uprising — with Western media banned from the country, accurate figures are hard to come by.
    In a remarkable development, the Arab League has tried to take a stand against the abuses. The organization announced in November that it had reached agreement with Damascus on a deal that included a complete halt to violence, the release of prisoners, removing the military presence from cities and residential areas, and allowing the Arab League and media access to report on the situation.
    The organization then upped the ante by voting to suspend Syria's membership if the government did not halt violence against civilians. In December the group dispatched a group of observers to monitor the situation. It is a chilling indicator of Mr. Assad's confidence that he did not even try to hide the situation from the observer group.
    The monitors witnessed the suffering of civilians. In some cases, troops were redeployed but not actually removed from cities as stipulated; in others, they did not even make an effort to move. One member of the group complained that military equipment remained in mosques despite pleas that it be removed. Violence continued unchecked; one UN official told the UN Security Council that Syria had accelerated the killing of protesters after the Arab monitors had arrived.
    It should come as no surprise that a member of the monitoring group resigned earlier this month, dismissing the mission as "a farce." Calling the government response "shameful," he accused the Syrian government of killing its own supporters "to convince the Arab monitors that they are doing their job duly, and gain their sympathy." He said the monitors were "giving the regime further opportunity for more killing." In perhaps the most damning remark, he concluded that "The regime isn't committing one war crime, but a series of crimes against its people."
    In response, Mr. Assad has given two speeches. After going on television for the first time since last summer, he followed that with his first public appearance since March, at which he addressed a crowd in Damascus with his wife and children — a clear attempt to squelch rumors that they had left the country — and vowed that the government would crush the uprising, which he characterized again as a foreign conspiracy.
    That promise would seem to anticipate yet more violence, not only by the government but by the opposition as well. As the demonstrations have continued, growing numbers of soldiers have left the government, taking their weapons and their skills with them. Many have joined the "Free Syrian Army": its ranks are estimated to number from 1,000 to more than 25,000 troops. If they feel the government has given up on compromise, they are likely to become hard line. A full-scale civil war is possible.
    The options available to other governments are limited. Western intervention as occurred in Libya is highly unlikely. Instead, the primary burden should be borne by other Arab governments. They should send an unmistakable message to Damascus that compromise is the only course. They should continue the suspension of Damascus from the Arab League and step up pressure on the regime; they should be leading the international movement to censure the Assad government. They should also signal the governments that have historically supported the Syrian government — Iran and Russia, in particular — that they too should stay out.
    The likely alternative is yet more violence, perhaps even another bloodbath.

  13. #263
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    There is a really easy trick to tell when Bashar Assad is lying.

    His lips move.

  14. #264
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda
    A member of Syria's parliament has left the country
    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda
    Imad Ghalioun, who represented the central city of Homs,
    One swallow doesn't make a summer
    Never underestimate a trickle, lest it turns into a flood.

    Assad's regime was hit by the defection of a leading MP who announced he was going into exile, along with an opposition figure who heads Syria's largest tribe."I have come to Turkey to activate the opposition. The Syrian revolution is our path. The country's youth are making the greatest sacrifices for a better future," Al-Baqqara tribal chief Nawaf al-Bashir told Al-Arabiya television.
    MP Imad Ghaliun, a member of parliament's budget committee, told the same network he had chosen Egypt as a base to try to help achieve "freedom and dignity" for the people in a future democratic Syria.

  15. #265
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Tuesday, Jan. 17, 2012

    EDITORIAL
    The Syrian charade
    I wonder who wrote that for the Jam Panties. Would be good to know if it were a translation from an editorial in one of the major Japanese papers.

  16. #266
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    I've seen some astonishing stuff in the last few days. A Qatar newspaper criticising those who suggest just sending Arab troops into Syria.

    When it was the Emir of Qatar who suggested it.

    A few years ago that would have had the paper shut down and everyone, from chairman, editor and author to delivery boy, sacked.

  17. #267
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda
    A Qatar newspaper
    which paper harry?

  18. #268
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    The Peninsula

  19. #269
    I'm in Jail

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    Tinfoil hats..

    Just bloody fuxking nuke Syria and Libya, then prob removed.And nuke Belgium too for good measure. Sad for belgians who are not butters friends, but this is how it goes.


    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
    interesting development,

    it seems that islamic fundamentalist dream is coming to reality, all thanks to Osama and Obama

    Osama wanted an Islamic awakening and remove non-religious dictators in the region to pave the way for the dominance of a grand Islamic state all over the region

    Obama with the CIA help is delivering that promise,

    is it appeasement for the terrorists with the Pentagon doing all the dirty work so they can create a safe heaven for all those Islamics and leave America alone ?

    that could be a new Tom Clancy best seller,

  20. #270
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    Tom Clancy did much better books than your conspiracy theories - he might sue you for comparing him and you. You recall everyone you called a retard? One more word from you and France will be nuked as well.
    Last edited by nostromo; 18-01-2012 at 02:56 AM.

  21. #271
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda
    The Peninsula
    thanks

  22. #272
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    Iran offered Syria’s Brotherhood power if it agreed to Assad staying on: official

    Wednesday, 18 January 2012
    The U.N. has estimated that there are more than 5,400 Syrian civilians, dissidents, protesters who are killed since the beginning of the uprising against the Syrian regime in March. (File Photo)









    inShare1




    By Al Arabiya


    Iran has offered the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood a deal that includes giving the Islamist opposition group all of the government, but under the condition that President Bashar al-Assad remains as the country’s premier, an official said in a newspaper interview published on Wednesday.

    Mohammed Taifour, the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood’s Deputy Superintendent and one of its representatives in the country’s main opposition group, the Syrian National Council, told the London-based al-Hayat Newspaper that via a Turkish businessman he knows three Iranian merchants requested to see him.

    Taifour, who rejected negotiation with the Iranian businessmen citing Iran’s support of the Syrian regime, said their deal offer started first with giving the Islamist group four ministerial positions and ended with giving them the entire government, as long as Assad kept his leadership position.

    The initiation of the first deal offer came three months ago, said Taifour.

    Taifour rejected the notion that Hamas had played an intermediary role, saying that his group’s relationship with Hamas is almost nonexistent.

    In early January, the Arab League chief, Nabil al-Arabi, asked the Damascus-based leader of Hamas, Khaled Meshaal, to ask Syria to work to halt violence against protesters.

    Instead, the high-ranking Brotherhood official called for the international community to protect Syrian civilians and supported the French foreign minister’s proposal of creating safe corridors.

    “There must be a direction from the Arab League to issue a report and transfer it to the Security Council,” he told the newspaper.

    At the same time, Taifour rejected the Western powers’ call to unify the Syrian opposition, describing such idea as “marriage by force.”

    He said that the National Coordination Committee includes officials who are close to the regime, in addition to national opposition figures.

    He also accused Lebanon’s Hezbollah, along with Iran, of aiding the Syrian regime with human resources and logistical support. Most of the snipers in Syria, according to Taifour, are either Iranian or Lebanese.

    The U.N. has estimated that there are more than 5,400 Syrian civilians, dissidents, protesters who are killed since the beginning of the uprising against the Syrian regime in March.

    He said that there is a huge difference between the positions of Hamas and Hezbollah. Hamas, he said, is quiet and semi-neutral, while Hezbolla is definitely pro-Assad.

    Meanwhile, he rejected that the revolution in Syria is heading towards militarization of the opposition; instead he blamed the onus on the regime for wanting to drag Syrians into a sectarian war.

  23. #273
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    (CNN) -- After more than six months of silence, Syria's leader, Bashar al-Assad, spoke last week for only the fourth time since the beginning of the country's widespread uprising in March. His words show that he is as delusional now as when the protests began.


    By continuing to blame the revolution on a foreign conspiracy, dismissing hundreds of thousands of his fellow citizens as "bandits, Zionists and al Qaeda," Assad is taking a page out of the handbook of Libya's late dictator, Moammar Gadhafi, on political survival. Assad will fight to the end simply because he cannot even conceive of his end.


    "Victory is nigh," Assad assured his dwindling supporters. But the current standstill after 10 months of fighting against unarmed protesters, and the deaths of more than 5,000 people, makes this promise hollow.


    Indeed, Assad's recent call on loyalists to continue to form local units to support the army and the security forces in their crackdown clearly shows increasing difficulty for the regime.



    Without external support, the protest movement has proved impossible to defeat, even for Assad's machine of oppression, deemed by international human rights organizations to be one of the worst in the Middle East. Assad's best defense at this stage is to play the hackneyed hand of dictators in the region -- and he is pursuing it assiduously by stoking international fears of civil mayhem in Syria.



    The United States and the international community do not seem to know how to respond, other than to impose economic sanctions, followed by more economic sanctions.


    The sanctions, though effective in crippling Syria's economy, have proved useless at stopping the bloodshed. If anything, violence is escalating, its ferocity forcing the previously unarmed protesters to rally around the increasing number of Syrian Army defectors to organize an armed resistance to loyalist militias.

    As for the Arab League delegation of monitors roaming the country to ensure compliance with an agreement to halt the violence against protesters, the average daily death toll has more than doubled, reaching around 50 innocent people, since the monitors arrived in late December.

    There are vital steps the United States can immediately take.
    Ragtag defectors from the Syrian Army, joined by civilians, have had to fight back. Yet these unorganized protesters have fought Assad's loyalist troops and militias nearly to a standstill with only light arms, obtained locally.
    Cracks showing in Syrian regime
    Town on edge in Syria


    Providing them with more sophisticated gear, including RPGs, night vision goggles and better communication equipment, would likely enable them to neutralize Assad's tanks and possibly free entire towns. Implementing a no-fly zone could also prevent Assad from laying these towns, once free, to waste. A naval blockade of Syrian ports would help prevent arms shipments to the regime. These are all measures the protesters themselves have forcefully and uniformly requested.


    Some might be concerned that the prospect of increased militarization will plunge Syria into civil war. Assad is leaving his opponents with little choice. Either they must settle for his version of reform, forever keeping him and his inner circle in power and above the law, or they are "terrorists" and will be struck with an "iron fist," as he threatened last week.


    If Russia persists in threatening a veto at the U.N. Security Council, the United States should call for an international conference on Syria, with the Arab League, the Islamic Conference, NATO, Japan, India, Brazil and all concerned states. This would be a viable path to legitimate multilateral intervention while circumventing the Russian veto.


    Syrian opposition coalitions, such as the SNC (Syrian National Council) and the Antalya Conference for Change, and prominent independent dissidents should be also invited, so that they can endorse the outcome and legitimate any international actions against the Syrian regime.


    The protesters and all Syrians who yearn for freedom are unambivalent in their call for international intervention. America faces a fundamental choice. It can stand behind democratic aspirations fully, or it can continue to rely on 19th century notions of power politics and influence.


    Backing tyrants as a hedge against Islamist extremism has only fostered more extremism. Although the course of history is never smooth or predictable, supporting freedom, democracy and individual dignity will, over time, provide the most stable model for prosperity and peace.

  24. #274
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    BEIRUT: Iranian officials contacted Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood to try to mediate a political solution to a 10-month-old uprising against President Bashar Al Assad but their efforts were rebuffed, a senior Brotherhood member said yesterday.
    The unrest in Syria is threatening to slide into civil war as Assad’s forces try to crush a protest movement. In recent months, armed rebels backing the protesters have brought the fight increasingly to security forces.
    A senior Muslim Brotherhood member, Melhem Al Droubi, said that the group had seen no details of the Iranian offer made on December 20 but that it would not deal with Tehran unless it revoked its support for Assad.
    “They (Iranian officials) asked about the possibility of the Brotherhood visiting Tehran, or Iran sending mediators to meet our leadership,” said Droubi. “We didn’t hear details about the offer and we didn’t open an opportunity for them to discuss it.
    “We refuse to either go there or receive them until they clearly stop their support of the regime and take a neutral position between the Syrian people and Bashar Al Assad. As long as they remain a party in this struggle, we will refuse to meet them.”
    Another high ranking Brotherhood official was quoted by the pan-Arab daily Al Hayat yesterday as saying Iranian mediators had proposed a deal offering control of the government in Damascus if President Bashar Al Assad could remain president.
    But the Brotherhood refused to hold talks with Iranian negotiators or the Syrian government, Brotherhood secretary general Tayfour Farouq told Al Hayat.
    It said that Iranian mediators offered a plan in which the Brotherhood would head up four government ministries but gradually obtain full control of the government.
    Over 5,000 civilians and army defectors have been killed by Assad’s forces during the uprising, by a United Nations count.

  25. #275
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    Schmidt: The Freedom and Democracy Struggle in Syria

    Posted on 01/19/2012 by Juan
    Søren Schmidt writes in a guest column for Informed Comment

    The Struggle for Freedom and Democracy in Syria
    The nineneteenth-century German chancellor Otto von Bismarck is said to have remarked that the wise statesman listens to the footsteps of history. It seems that Syria’s president, Bashar al-Asad, is tone-deaf and has not understood that it is no longer possible to rule a country solely by military force. But as a former ophthamologist he at least ought to be able to read. For example what researchers from Pepperdine University discovered about the opinions of Syrians in 2010. Their research showed two things:


    First of all that the population is divided into a majority (2/3) that is dissatisfied with the government and doesn’t think that the country is progressing, and a minority (1/3) that thinks the country has a good government and is progressing.


    Secondly that corruption and lack of political freedom are the two biggest problems in the country, with the economy only coming in third.


    I was in Syria myself around the New Year, and was told by almost everyone I spoke to that about 1/3 of the population in the two largest cities, Damascus and Aleppo, still support the government, whereas ½ supports the opposition. In the provincial cities of Homs, Hama, Idlib, Deir Zor and Der’a, almost everyone is against the regime. Several people referred to the bad experiences with “democracy” in Iraq and the vulnerability of the minorities there as the justification for supporting the regime, which they felt was at least tolerable.


    But as the regime’s brutal repression of the opposition goes on, more and more regime supporters are being alienated, the number of deserters from the army is increasing and the resolve of the opposition to topple the Asad regime is strengthened. But the balance of power is shifting slowly, and no leading religious authority or anyone from the key military units has gone over to the opposition yet. This means that it may take a long time before the regime is defeated. However, time is on the side of the opposition.


    The Pepperdine research showed that only 25% thought that they personally had become worse off during the past year. The rest felt that their situation was either improved or the same as before. Corruption was, however, perceived by almost everyone to have gotten worse, and did not think that they could get a job in the civil service without having connections. During recent years, the Syrian economy has been privatized, but not in a way that ensures everyone a fair chance. Those who benefit are the business people with the right connections to the regime, and therefore it is not without reason that the leading business people have names like Asad, Makhlouf or Shalish – the various branches of the Asad clan.


    In Tunisia it was the authorities’ ruthless abuse of power against the fruit seller, which led him to set himself on fire and which, in turn, sparked the Jasmine Revolution. Likewise, according to the people I spoke to, it was the authorities’ brutal and meaningless treatment of the young people who had scribbled anti-regime graffiti in Der’a that triggered the revolt in Syria.


    Syrians are modern people. Most of them have internet, mobile phone and satellite TV. They live in cities, most have an education and during the economic growth of the last few years, the majority has seen an increase in its standard of living (according to the World Bank, the average income rose from $3,480 in 2003 to $5,120 in 2010).


    Although there are, of course, many reasons for the revolt, the predominant reason does not seem to be economic, but rather that people want the social contract between the state and the citizens to change, so that it is based on freedom and fairness. The citizens are simply not willing to put up with being treated like cattle by the regime any longer. They are tired of corrupt courts and arbitrary treatment by the authorities. They are tired of the fact that lack of democracy means that the state can imprison people illegally for an indefinite period. Lastly, people are tired of the state prioritizing military spending and enrichment of the elite instead of, for example, making sure that children have decent schools (95% think that public schools are bad or mediocre).


    It is therefore not collectivist, political ideologies like Islamism or Socialism that inspire Syrians today; rather it is Western core values like freedom and fairness. Freedom made possible by rule of law that protects the individual against abuse by the state or by other people, and fairness in the form of a democracy ensuring that citizens have equal influence on political decisions, equal treatment by the authorities and oversight ensuring that freedoms and rigths are respected.


    There are basically two possible resolutions of the conflict in Syria: a compromise between the parties or the victory of one side over the other.
    Compromise requires, first of all, that both parties realize that neither one of them can win and they therefore willingly accept a compromise as the next best solution, and, secondly, that a negotiated resolution can be enforced; typically through the involvement of a third party. However, there is no real indication that a compromise is possible. While a negotiated solution was possible until a few months ago, the regime, with its brutal behavior, has burned its bridges behind it so that no one in the opposition talks of negotiations anymore.


    Furthermore, it is difficult for geo-political reason to see how NATO, the EU, Turkey or The Arab League would be either willing or able to go in and guarantee a peace treaty between the two sides, never mind about intervening militarily to hasten regime change.


    What is left is the long hard road ahead before the regime falls. The Free Syrian Army will slowly gain strength and may even be able to establish liberated zones; either in the area near the border with Turkey or in the cities most hostile to the regime, like Homs and Hama. But the Alawi generals in Asad’s key military units already have too much blood on their hands to switch sides.


    If, six months ago, Bashar al-Asad had heeded Bismarck’s advice to listen to the footsteps of history, Syria could have been spared much violence and he might even have gone down in history as the country’s first democratic president. Instead he has now been assured a place in history’s garbage dump.

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