Ukraine war mega thread

[bsnub]

What in your opinion will, snubs.

The west has failed Ukraine. Biden has slow rolled equipment for two years instead of giving Ukraine what it needs to win the war as did the Europeans. This has taken a toll. When I predicted the liberation of Kherson and Kharkiv oblast early on in the war, things were different. I think victory is still attainable, but only if NATO and the US open the floodgates and finally give Ukraine everything it needs.

There was a massive air strike on the ruzzians largest airbase in Crimea recently, and the Ukrainians used some ATACMS missiles they got in the recent $300 million aid package. The damage was massive. They need to be able to do a lot more of this.

[bsnub]

Lumbering M270 Launchers Just Lobbed Eight ATACMS Rockets With 8,000 Submunitions At A Russian Base In Crimea


On March 12, the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden unexpectedly gifted to Ukraine a $300-million consignment of weapons—the last consignment paid for with funds the U.S. Congress approved before Republicans gained narrow control of the U.S. House of Representatives in January 2023.

Five weeks later, the Ukrainian finally put the weapons to good use.

The arms package reportedly included a small number of long-range M39 rockets, also known as Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS. On Tuesday night, the Ukrainian army fired some—maybe all—of the M39 ATACMS at a single Russian air base in occupied Crimea.

The damage was extensive. Imagery from the ground at Dzhankoy air base, 100 miles south of the front line, confirms the Russians lost at least four launchers belonging to an S-400 long-range surface-to-air missile battery. The Ukrainian defense ministry claimed the rockets also knocked out the S-400’s control center and four precious air-defense radars.

According to the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies, a regiment of helicopters and three squadrons of attack jets—dozens of aircraft in all—fly from Dzhankoy. It’s unclear whether any of the aircraft were damaged or destroyed on Tuesday night, however. “The enemy carefully hides the number of affected aircraft,” the defense ministry in Kyiv noted.

A video the ministry released on Thursday seems to depict seven or eight M39s streaking into the night sky, presumably somewhere around the free city of Kherson. Each 100-mile-range rocket carried nearly a thousand grenade-sized submunitions inside its 13-foot body—meaning as many as 8,000 individual explosions rocked the Russian base.

While the Ukrainian army’s wheeled High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems can each launch a single two-ton M39, the M270s can launch two. Considering the Ukrainians tend to operate their HIMARS and M270s in platoons of four launchers, it’s likely the latter carried out the raid on Dzhankoy.

The speedy HIMARS are media darlings in Ukraine: symbols of one of the Ukrainian military’s few technological advantages over the bigger and better-funded Russian military. The Tuesday raid was a rare chance for the lumbering M270s to shine.

The first consignment of M39s from the United States arrived in Ukraine last fall, a few weeks before the initial U.S. funding for the Ukrainian war effort began to run out.

Considering that aid package included just 20 or so M39s, it’s likely the belated aid package in March—which the White House paid for with unexpected savings from a previous contract for weapons for Ukraine—included fewer of the 1990s-vintage munitions. It’s possible there were just eight rockets, and that platoon of M270s fired all of them at Dzhankoy in a single fiery barrage.

If the damage was as bad as the Ukrainian defense ministry claimed, it may have been worth it to fire all the M39s. The Ukrainians can take comfort in knowing it’s highly likely they’re about to get more ATACMS rockets—potentially a lot more.

That’s because the Republican Speaker of the House, Louisiana Rep. Mike Johnson, is finally bringing to a vote Biden’s proposal to spend $61 billion on weapons and other aid for Ukraine through the end of the year. The long-delayed vote, which is strongly opposed by a minority of Russia-friendly Republicans, is scheduled for Saturday—and is expected to pass.

A provision in the bill requires Biden to send more ATACMS to Ukraine. There are hundreds of the old rockets in the U.S. inventory, and their solid fuel is expiring soon. There’s no reason the White House couldn’t send all of them to Ukraine after the vote this weekend.

And there’s no reason the Ukrainian army can’t fire them at any Russian base within a hundred miles of the front line.

Ukraine's M270 Launchers Lobbed 8,000 Submunitions At One Russian Base

[bsnub]

The Pentagon is preparing to quickly approve a weapons package for Ukraine that includes urgently needed artillery and air defenses as Congress lines up votes to pass additional funding for the country, according to two U.S. officials.

The Biden administration has not made a final decision on how large the tranche would be and what will be in it, said the officials, who were granted anonymity to speak about sensitive internal deliberations. But Defense Department officials are working on putting together a package of U.S. equipment that can move quickly through the bureaucratic process once the legislation passes and is signed by the president, one of the officials said.

“They will have that recommendation to the secretary very quickly, and that gets to the president shortly thereafter,” the official said.

The tranche — which would be only the second the U.S. has sent since running out of funds in December as Congress stalled on the president’s request for additional aid — will include artillery and air defenses to replenish Ukraine’s arsenal, the officials said. The White House approved one emergency package of $300 million last month, using cost savings from previous contracts.

Many U.S. weapons are already positioned in stores across Europe that could be pulled immediately for Ukraine, the first official said. Some materiel could reach Ukraine in days; others may take weeks.

Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder declined to get into specifics about what will be in any forthcoming package, but told reporters on Thursday that the U.S. has a “very robust logistics network that enables us to move materiel very quickly” – possibly within days.

“We certainly understand and appreciate the urgency and are poised to move quickly,” Ryder said.

The House is nearing a vote Saturday on four bills that would allocate $95 billion in funding to assist Ukraine, Israel and Pacific partners. Once passed, the Senate must still clear the aid package before Biden can sign it.

Of the nearly $61 billion for Ukraine, approximately $48 billion would go to the Pentagon to finance arming Kyiv, replenish weapons and pay for military operations in Europe.

The bill touts $23.2 billion for the military to replenish stocks of weapons and equipment provided to Ukraine. Another $13.8 billion would go toward the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative for the Pentagon to purchase new weapons for Kyiv.

And $11.3 billion would finance intensified troop operations in Europe.

The legislation also reauthorizes the Pentagon to send up to $7.8 billion worth of existing weapons from military inventories to Ukraine, which would then be replaced by the added funding in the package.

The Pentagon’s assistant secretary for international security affairs, Celeste Wallander, told lawmakers recently that the Pentagon would begin moving ammunition, artillery shells and air defenses quickly once Congress finally approves the aid.

“We would be able to, with [European Command’s] support and [Transportation Command’s] support, begin immediately, within a week or two, to provide the ammunition, the artillery ammunition, to provide interceptors to Ukraine,” Wallander told the House Armed Services Committee.

Top U.S. officials stressed this week that Ukraine will soon be in dire straits if Congress does not pass additional funding. CIA Director Bill Burns said without new U.S. weapons, Ukraine could lose by the end of the year.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told lawmakers that Russia is making gains, as Ukraine struggles with ammunition shortages.

“We’re already seeing things on the battlefield begin to shift a bit in Russia’s favor. We are seeing them make incremental gains. We’re seeing the Ukrainians be challenged in terms of holding the line,” he said.

Just a moment...

[bsnub]

WASHINGTON, April 20 (Reuters) - The U.S. House of Representatives on Saturday with broad bipartisan support passed a $95 billion legislative package providing security assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, over bitter objections from Republican hardliners.

The legislation now proceeds to the Democratic-majority Senate, which passed a similar measure more than two months ago. U.S. leaders from Democratic President Joe Biden to top Senate Republican Mitch McConnell had been urging embattled Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson to bring it up for a vote.

The Senate is set to begin considering the House-passed bill on Tuesday, with some preliminary votes that afternoon. Final passage was expected sometime next week, which would clear the way for Biden to sign it into law.

The bills provide $60.84 billion to address the conflict in Ukraine, including $23 billion to replenish U.S. weapons, stocks and facilities; $26 billion for Israel, including $9.1 billion for humanitarian needs, and $8.12 billion for the Indo-Pacific, including Taiwan.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed his thanks, saying U.S. lawmakers moved to keep "history on the right track."

"The vital U.S. aid bill passed today by the House will keep the war from expanding, save thousands and thousands of lives, and help both of our nations to become stronger," Zelenskiy said on X.
It was unclear how quickly the new military funding for Ukraine will be depleted, likely causing calls for further action by Congress.

Biden, who had urged Congress since last year to approve the additional aid to Ukraine, said in a statement: "It comes at a moment of grave urgency, with Israel facing unprecedented attacks from Iran and Ukraine under continued bombardment from Russia."

The vote on passage of the Ukraine funding was 311-112. Significantly, 112 Republicans opposed the legislation, with only 101 in support.

"Mike Johnson is a lame duck ... he's done," far-right Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene told reporters afterward.

She has been a leading opponent of helping Ukraine in its war against Russia and has taken steps that threaten to remove Johnson from office over this issue. Greene stopped short of doing so on Saturday, however.

During the vote, several lawmakers waved small Ukrainian flags as it became clear that element of the package was headed to passage. Johnson warned lawmakers that was a "violation of decorum."

Meanwhile, the House's actions during a rare Saturday session put on display some cracks in what generally is solid support for Israel within Congress. Recent months have seen progressive Democrats express anger with Israel's government and its conduct of the war in Gaza.

Saturday's vote, in which the Israel aid was passed 366-58, had 37 Democrats and 21 Republicans in opposition.

Passage of the long-awaited legislation was closely watched by U.S. defense contractors, who could be in line for huge contracts to supply equipment for Ukraine and other U.S. partners.

Johnson this week chose to ignore ouster threats by hardline members of his fractious 218-213 majority and push forward the measure that includes Ukraine funding as it struggles to fight off a two-year Russian invasion.

The unusual four-bill package also includes a measure that includes a threat to ban the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok and the potential transfer of seized Russian assets to Ukraine.

Some hardline Republicans voicing strong opposition to further Ukraine aid argued the United States can ill afford it given its rising $34 trillion national debt. They have repeatedly raised the threat of ousting Johnson, who became speaker in October after his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, was ousted by party hardliners.

"It's not the perfect legislation, it's not the legislation that we would write if Republicans were in charge of both the House, the Senate, and the White House," Johnson told reporters on Friday. "This is the best possible product that we can get under these circumstances to take care of these really important obligations."

Representative Bob Good, chair of the hardline House Freedom Caucus, told reporters on Friday that the bills represent a "slide down into the abyss of greater fiscal crisis and America-last policies that reflect Biden and (Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck) Schumer and (House Democratic leader Hakeem) Jeffries, and don't reflect the American people."

But Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who carries huge influence in the party, on April 12 voiced support for Johnson and in a Thursday social media post said Ukraine's survival is important for the U.S.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...ge-2024-04-20/

[Norton]

Significantly, 112 Trump dick lickers opposed the legislation

ftfy

[bsnub]

Significantly, 112 Trump dick lickers opposed the legislation

What is so interesting is that drumpf flip-flopped on Ukraine, leaving all of these losers high and dry. Some all already trying to roll back their positions.

reuters.com

[39TG]

The west has failed Ukraine. Biden has slow rolled equipment for two years instead of giving Ukraine what it needs to win the war as did the Europeans. This has taken a toll ...

Yep. If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, the Europeans will really need to bump their defense spending quickly to deter the Russians from making trouble elsewhere in Europe. It will have been less expensive to arm Ukraine properly from the start.

[bsnub]

It will have been less expensive to arm Ukraine properly from the start.

Exactly! If they had done that, Ukraine could have kicked the ruzzians all the way out of the country instead of the stalemate.

[Troy]

^ && ^^ Hindsight is a fine thing. However, in February 2022 most of the world believed the Russians would just walk into and take Ukraine. They did not expect such a badly managed invasion and neither did they expect such a spirited defence.

[bsnub]

^

Ukraine had been at war since 2014 and the west should have been being equipped since that as John McCain called for. He literally predicted the future in this interview...

[bsnub]

Equipping. I meant equipping.

God-damn, no edit in the doghouse.

[harrybarracuda]

And today's comedy headline:

Kremlin warns of 'irreparable damage' as US plans to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine

Confiscation will deal blow to image of US, says Kremlin spokesman

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/kremlin-warns-of-irreparable-damage-as-us-plans-to-use-frozen-russian-assets-for-ukraine/3197905

[PlanK]

So things even up and we go back to a war of attrition.

[harrybarracuda]

Marjorie Taylor Greene is really upset about the Ukraine bill getting passed.

She previously added a "space laser" amendment to an Israel bill.

Seriously, the US political system is a fucking shambles right now.

Marjorie Taylor Greene'''s '''space lasers''' amendment to Israel funding bill is a stunt

[OhOh]

to deter the Russians from making trouble elsewhere in Europe

Do you have a source for your allegation that Russia wants anything from the 16%, other than the return of it's frozen monies?

[harrybarracuda]

Do you have a source for your allegation that Russia wants anything from the 16%, other than the return of it's frozen monies?

Adolf Hitler - Wikipedia

[bsnub]

Do you have a source for your allegation that Russia wants anything from the 16%

Time and again, you prove to be a complete moron.

[bsnub]

This was the cover of the New York Post yesterday...

The MAGA clowns are having meltdowns all over twitter/X.

[helge]

Good to see that you are in such a good mood, Snappy

The billions did some good after all.

You also post a pic with Hammer and Sickle, to illustrate traitors cheering for Putin.


Biden should have spent a few cents on getting his sheep updated.

Or is he trying to keep it simple ?

Would make sense

[OhOh]

Thank you for your replies.

^^^ and ^^^^

Judging from a'rry's and your replies, it appears that neither of you have any evidence of Russia announcing their intent in

making trouble elsewhere in Europe

to share with us.

Maybe 39TG has, I will await his reply.

[OhOh]

Whereas European countries have openly announced their agreement to attack Russia.

The Polish Escalation


Special Report April 21, 2024

Attention Required! | Cloudflare

[Troy]

Judging from a'rry's and your replies, it appears that neither of you have any evidence of Russia announcing their intent in

You might want to read his speech from March 2014 where he states: "...it is the duty of his country to defend ethnic Russian’s wherever they live." There are also vague intentions in his March 2023 speech on Russian Foreign Policy.

You can find his speeches here http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70699

Since the Baltic states have a large Russian speaking population they and the West consider them to be particularly vulnerable to a Russian attack and Poland is not far behind. I'm not sure what kind of proof you are looking for since intent and plans are likely to be in the safe and marked secret rather than published on the internet for you to read.

[helge]

You might want to read his speech from March 2014 where he states: "...it is the duty of his country to defend ethnic Russian’s wherever they live."

And which Head of State would proclaim: "I do not care about any of my ethnic countrymen living outside our borders".

?

Since the Baltic states have a large Russian speaking population they and the West consider them to be particularly vulnerable to a Russian attack and Poland is not far behind.

Latvia, who has russians, are as fascist as always in their treatment of minorities; maybe they should reconsider or are you all for discrimination ?

Lituania not much to report and Estonia with Narva is calm too. Can ofcourse change if opportun.

Poland ? New to me.

Transnistria yes. Next provocation might be in Moldova.

Other russians is, I think to the east, Kasackstan etc and ofcourse in the US


And there is ofcourse ukranians in Russia


Propaganda from you, Troy

IMO

[helge]

Billions in aid brings tears to the streets of Ukraine: 'I hope everything will be okay'


Ukraine can now look forward to a large aid package from the United States with both weapons and financial support.







Oleksandr hopes that the new support can ensure victory for Ukraine.

OF

Katrine Bang Ramsbæk

Milliardhjaelp far tarerne til at trille pa gaden i Ukraine: '''Jeg haber, at alt bliver okay''' | Udland | DR


"I hope everything will be fine in the future. That we also get long-range weapons - including missiles. I hope everything will be okay.

That is what it sounds like on the streets of Kyiv.

DR's reporter in Kyiv - Brita Kvist Hansen - was on the streets of the Ukrainian capital this morning to talk to Ukrainians after the United States yesterday voted yes to a large aid package for Ukraine.

"I hope that help arrives and that we can finally defeat Russia," Oleksandr said.

READ ALSO:US House of Representatives has voted yes to large aid package for Ukraine

The aid package of approximately DKK 420 billion for Ukraine has been stranded in the US Congress for six months because the Repbulanian majority in the House of Representatives has blocked the agreement.

As part of the package, more aid is also on the way to Israel worth approximately DKK 184 billion and in addition approximately DKK 56 billion to Taiwan.

Yesterday, after a long tug-of-war, several Republicans chose to vote "yes" to the package - and this has caused joy in the Ukrainian presidential office.

Thank you to everyone who supported the aid package. This decision will save lives," Zelenskyy said.

Zelenskyy has recently criticized the lack of support from their key ally the United States.

Before weapons find their way to Ukraine, the aid package must pass the second chamber of Congress, the Senate, where it is likely to be voted through, before Joe Biden can formally put his signature.

READ TOO:Zelenskyy in interview: Without US help, we must withdraw

Brita Kvist Hansen has spoken to several Ukrainians who have cried with relief after it became clear that after six months, Ukraine can now look forward to more support from the United States.

"I went down to the subway this morning and talked to a lady who said she cried when the vote was over," Hansen said.

"So said a local journalist. He sent me a message on the phone yesterday saying that he had been so tense about it for a long time. It really is something that goes into people's hearts that help is actually coming.

However, the news that Ukraine can now look forward to significantly more help from the United States has not exactly been welcomed in Russia.

"The military assistance to the Kyiv regime is direct financial support for terrorist activity," Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said.


Money and weapons


And what exactly can Ukrainians look forward to getting from the United States?

The aid package worth approximately DKK 420 billion is not just an economic injection to the war-torn country.

It also consists of a number of arms deliveries.

The US Department of Defense has already prepared and placed the weapons Ukraine will need in stockpiles around Europe. These are, for example, ammunition and air defense missiles.

JAKOB KROGH, U.S. CORRESPONDENT

The most direct aid to Ukraine's military is approximately 98 billion kroner, which will pay for weapons, training and other operational support, writes The Wall Street Journal.

More than DKK 210 billion will be spent on the broad war effort in Ukraine. Some of that money will go to the U.S. to replenish its weapons inventory to make up for what has been sent to Ukraine.

Part of the money will also be used to strengthen US military operations across Europe to counter Russian aggression.

And then the Ukrainian government will receive approximately 66 billion kroner as a loan. Among other things, they can be used on the country's energy sector and infrastructure, writes The Wall Street Journal. However, the loan may be forgiven, which means that the United States may choose not to collect the money.

But weapons and money cannot be sent until the aid package has been adopted.

This is what it looked like when the aid package was voted through yesterday in the House of Representatives:

Can be in Ukraine in a matter of days


The first weapons could be in Ukraine just a few days after the law is signed and adopted.

This is according to US correspondent Jakob Krogh.

"The U.S. Department of Defense has already prepared and placed the weapons Ukraine will use in stockpiles around Europe. These are, for example, ammunition and air defense missiles.

It could prove crucial that weapons quickly land on the Ukrainian battlefield.

READ ALSO:Russians press on in eastern Ukraine: 'Putin's meat grinder' is again on everyone's lips
For Russian forces are likely to intensify both their offensive operations and missile and drone attacks in the coming period to exploit the Ukrainians' lack of weapons and ammunition.

This is the assessment of the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

But the Russians have always known that there was a risk that there could be American support, says Peter Viggo Jakobsen, associate professor at the Defense Cademy.

"That's why the Russians have done everything they could in the last month to see if they could punch a hole. They couldn't.

"Now they can see that their window is closing. They may have a week before it starts pouring in with weapons. I don't think they can make any decisive difference this week.

"I see this support from the United States as crucial to war," Peter Viggo Jakobsen said.

Last week, the director of the CIA intelligence agency warned that Ukraine could lose the war to Russia by the end of 2024 if it did not get more help from the United States.

[Norton]

I don't think they can make any decisive difference this week.

Nor do I but to win the war far more must be done. Has the west the balls to do it?