Ukraine war mega thread

[helge]

Why the hell need David think about who you would fight for? Up to you to answer the question innit?

Who knocked on your door ?

Go back to bed

[helge]

Ukrainian Chief of Defence: The situation on the Eastern Front has deteriorated markedly in recent days
OF
Anna Danielsen Gille




The fight against Russia is not going as well as Ukraine's defense chief had hoped.

Defense Chief Oleksandr Syrskyy told Ritzau on Saturday that Ukraine was in a "worsening" situation.

"The situation on the eastern front has deteriorated significantly in recent days," he said, reporting a sharpening Russian offensive.

He speaks of a "significant intensification of the enemy offensive after the presidential elections in Russia" in March. And that Ukraine is trying to "strengthen the most problematic areas of defense with electronic warfare and air defense".

Among other things, Ukraine reports that in the town of Chasiv Jar, located about 20 kilometers from Bakhmut, there is a "difficult and tense" situation with constant shelling, writes Ritzau.

[Norton]

The fight against Russia is not going as well as Ukraine's defense chief had hoped.

If that hope was based on having the trained troops and equipment required to defend and counter attack, then no surprise things are not going well.
Numbers matter!

[harrybarracuda]

Good to see the old chinkies weighing in.

Presumably point number one means the high-heeled war criminal giving back the land he's stolen.

"First, we should prioritize the upholding of peace and stability and refrain from seeking selfish gains. Second, we should cool down the situation and not add fuel to the fire. Third, we need to create conditions for the restoration of peace and refrain from further exacerbating tensions. Fourth, we should reduce the negative impact on the world economy and refrain from undermining the stability of global industrial and supply chains," Xi said.

Xi Jinping proposes four principles to resolve Ukraine crisis - CGTN

[OhOh]

Presumably point number one means

As no names are published your presumption may be erroneous.

[Salsa dancer]

"First, we should prioritize the upholding of peace and stability and refrain from seeking selfish gains. Second, we should cool down the situation and not add fuel to the fire. Third, we need to create conditions for the restoration of peace and refrain from further exacerbating tensions. Fourth, we should reduce the negative impact on the world economy and refrain from undermining the stability of global industrial and supply chains," Xi said.

What that atrocious hypocrite needs to do is practise what he preaches by applying each and every point there to how they are dealing with Taiwan.

[david44]

Western politicians can talk the talk, the hollow eu will neither send its sons nor daughters to the european civil war, they are not asked to pay for the US forces but expect US poor taxpayer to stump up.

NO PASARAN

The imprecation of LaPasionara comes to mind during the siege of Madrid that led to last euro civil war where America again had to bail out the toddlers in blood cash and a Marshall Plan.

Starts they cannot lose
We will do whatever it takes
Now we see the contrast with defence of Israel with UK anf French air forces operating against the shared shiite enemy.

Good analysis, if ukraine runs out of fit able you g people they may lose, If they refuse to conscript all adult males and possibly single women without caring responsibilities they may lose, we'll see soon enough.

Long read here


Why Ukraine is losing the war




The West’s failure to send weapons to Kyiv is putting Putin on course for victory.
By JAMIE DETTMER
in Kyiv





If the tide doesn’t turn soon in this third year of Russia’s invasion, it will be the nation of Ukraine as it currently exists that is consigned to the past. | John Moore /Getty Images


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APRIL 17, 2024 4:00 AM CET




Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe.
Just ask a Ukrainian soldier if he still believes the West will stand by Kyiv “for as long as it takes.” That pledge rings hollow when it’s been four weeks since your artillery unit last had a shell to fire, as one serviceman complained from the front lines.
It’s not just that Ukraine’s forces are running out of ammunition. Western delays over sending aid mean the country is dangerously short of something even harder to supply than shells: the fighting spirit required to win.


Morale among troops is grim, ground down by relentless bombardment, a lack of advanced weapons, and losses on the battlefield. In cities hundreds of miles away from the front, the crowds of young men who lined up to join the army in the war’s early months have disappeared. Nowadays, eligible would-be recruits dodge the draft and spend their afternoons in nightclubs instead. Many have left the country altogether.
As I discovered while reporting from Ukraine over the past month, the picture that emerged from dozens of interviews with political leaders, military officers, and ordinary citizens was one of a country slipping towards disaster.
Even as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukraine is trying to find a way not to retreat, military officers privately accept that more losses are inevitable this summer. The only question is how bad they will be. Vladimir Putin has arguably never been closer to his goal.
“We know people are flagging and we hear it from regional governors and from the people themselves,” Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s powerful chief of staff, told POLITICO. Yermak and his boss travel together to “some of the most dangerous places” to rally citizens and soldiers for the fight, he said. “We tell people: ‘Your name will be in the history books.’”
If the tide doesn’t turn soon in this third year of Russia’s invasion, it will be the nation of Ukraine as it currently exists that is consigned to the past.
Ukrainian military officers privately accept that more losses are inevitable this summer. | Roman Pilipey/AFP via Getty ImagesFor a war of such era-defining importance, the scale of Western leaders’ actions to help Kyiv repel Russia’s invaders has fallen far short of their soaring rhetoric. That disappointment has left Ukrainians of all ranks — from the soldiers digging trenches to ministers running the country — weary and irritable.


When POLITICO asked Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba if he felt the West had left Ukraine to fight with one hand tied behind its back, his verdict was clear: “Yes, I do,” he said, in an interview in his office, an hour after another Russian mid-morning missile attack.
Zelenskyy has laid out the stakes even more starkly, saying Ukraine “will lose the war” if the U.S. Congress does not step up and supply aid.
Increasingly it looks as if Putin’s bet that he can grind down Ukrainian resistance and Western support might pay off.
Without a major step-change in the supply of advanced Western weapons and cash, Ukraine won’t be able to liberate the territories Putin’s forces now hold. That will leave Putin free to gnaw on the wounded country in the months or years ahead. Even if Russia can’t finish Ukraine off, a partial victory will leave Kyiv’s hopes of joining the EU and NATO stuck in limbo.
The ramifications of such an outcome will be serious for the world. Putin will claim victory at home, and, emboldened by exposing Western weaknesses, he may reinvigorate his wider imperial ambitions abroad. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are especially fearful they are next on his hit list. China, already an increasingly reliable partner for Moscow, will see few reasons to alter its stance.
Increasingly it looks as if Putin’s bet that he can grind down Ukrainian resistance and Western support might pay off. | Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesPutin’s big target is Ukraine’s second largest city


Right now, Ukraine’s most urgent need is for artillery shells — millions of them. Moreover, Ukraine says it needs at least two dozen Patriot air-defense systems to protect troops on the front lines and to defend Kharkiv, the country’s biggest city after Kyiv, which has been under ferocious missile and artillery attack for weeks.
Fears are growing that Russia may target Ukraine’s second city for a ground offensive soon.
“It’s symbolic because they say that Kharkiv was the first capital of Ukraine. It’s a big target,” Zelenskyy said in an interview with POLITICO’s parent company Axel Springer media outlets last week.
Ukraine’s military is braced for more losses in the coming months. Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander in chief of the armed forces, has warned that the situation on Ukraine’s eastern front has “significantly deteriorated in recent days.” As Zelenskyy himself put it elsewhere, “We are trying to find some way not to retreat.”
The fears about the fragility of the front lines are only compounded by an unprecedented barrage of Russian attacks intended to knock out Ukraine’s electricity networks.
In recent meetings with POLITICO, the country’s political leaders acknowledged that public spirits are sagging, and although they all tried to stay upbeat, frustration with the West came through in every conversation.


“Give us the damn Patriots,” snapped Kuleba, Ukraine’s chief diplomat. Sitting for an interview in the foreign ministry, he couldn’t hide his exasperation with the delays, and the strings that come attached to Western weaponry — like not striking Russian oil facilities.
Kuleba, of course, offered his unconditional gratitude for all the support that has come from the Western allies over the past two years. But he warned that Ukraine is trapped in a vicious cycle: The weapons it needs are withheld or delayed; then Western allies complain that Kyiv is on the retreat, making it less likely they’ll send more aid in future. (Since POLITICO’s meeting with Kuleba, Germany has agreed to supply Patriots, but the question still remains whether they will prove sufficient.)
The mood in the senior ranks of the military is even darker than Kuleba’s.
Several senior officers talked to POLITICO only on the understanding they would not be named so they could talk freely. They painted a grim forecast of frontlines potentially collapsing this summer when Russia, with greater weight of numbers and a readiness to accept huge casualties, launches its expected offensive. Perhaps worse, they expressed private fears that Ukraine’s own resolve could be weakened, with morale in the armed forces undermined by a desperate shortage of supplies.
Ukrainian commanders are crying out for more combat soldiers — one estimate from the former top commander, Valeriy Zaluzhny suggested they’d need an extra 500,000 troops.
As Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself put it elsewhere, “We are trying to find some way not to retreat.” | Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesBut Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian parliament are hesitant about ordering a massive fresh call-up. In an interview with POLITICO, Yermak, the powerful Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, offered an important — and to outsiders perhaps surprising — reason for not launching a mass mobilization: such a call-up wouldn’t have the backing of the people. Zelenskyy is still “president of the people,” he said. “For him, that’s very important, and it’s very important that the people do something not just because they’re ordered to do it.”


And there’s the rub. The West has failed to come up with what’s needed, and it in turn is undermining Ukraine’s will to do what it takes.
The country is facing an existential crisis — Putin literally wants to scratch it from the map — and yet there apparently isn’t enough public support for a new draft.
Young Ukrainians are dodging the military draft
Admittedly, Ukraine is no different from its neighboring European countries where recent opinion polls suggest large numbers would refuse to be conscripted even if their nations were under attack. But Ukraine is the country at war. An existential fight like this can’t be won without mobilizing the entire nation.
And yet, as the conflict continues, Ukrainians living in Kyiv and the center and west of the country — away from the front lines — appear in some ways to be ready to put up with war raging in the east, as long as they can get back to their normal lives.
Hence, there is draft-dodging: eligible young recruits find other things to do with their time, packing into hipster bars and techno clubs in the late afternoons.


Vitali Klitschko, the former heavyweight boxing champion now serving as Kyiv’s mayor, said he understood why people wanted to get back to normal, arguing that it is healthy. He told POLITICO the desire to resume daily activities was an expression of defiance in the face of Putin’s attempts to wear the people down.
Maybe so. But faced with a relentless enemy, driving home its advantage against a badly equipped army of defenders, such a hands-off attitude seems high risk.
As Ukraine’s ousted chief commander Zaluzhny found to his cost, rational warnings that things may not turn out well can get commentators and analysts in trouble. But suspending critical thinking won’t win this war either.
Ukrainians living away from the front lines appear in some ways to be ready to put up with war, as long as they can get back to their normal lives. | Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty ImagesThe West has placed too much faith in sanctions, believing they’d bring Russia to heel. There’s also beenwishful thinking about Russians turning on Putin over casualty figures, or hopes he may be ousted in a Kremlin coup. Instead Russia’s economy has remained resilient and Putin has strengthened his grip on power.
It’s true that before launching the 2022 invasion, the Russian leader may have been misled by his bungling intelligence chiefs into believing a short war would offer a quick win.
But Putin can afford to wait. Last month he awarded himself another six-year term as president. He can settle for a stalemate: Keeping Ukraine stuck between victory and defeat, shut out of both NATO and the EU, would still amount to a win.


And what would a deadlocked conflict do to Ukrainian resilience?
The early burst of patriotic fervor which saw draft centers swamped with volunteers has evaporated. An estimated 650,000 men of fighting age have fled their country, most by smuggling themselves across the border.
Two years ago, the trains heading out of Ukraine were almost exclusively carrying women, children and the elderly to seek refuge. This week, around a third of the passengers on one train carrying this correspondent out of the country were men of fighting age. Somehow they’d managed to get waiver papers to leave.
In Zelenskyy’s presidential office in Bankova Street, his officials insist they are still positive. But that Western aid, especially President Joe Biden’s long-delayed $60 billion package of support, can’t wait much longer.
What would Putin do if Ukraine doesn’t get the Western help it needs to win? “He would completely destroy everything. Everything,” Zelenskyy told Axel Springer media. Ukrainian cities will be reduced to rubble; hundreds of thousands will die, he said.
“People will not run away, most of them, and so he will kill a lot of people. So how it will look like? A lot of blood.”

[HermantheGerman]

Let the slavs butcher themselves....maybe that was the plan to beginn with.

[helge]

The imprecation of LaPasionara comes to mind during the siege of Madrid that led to last euro civil war where America again had to bail out the toddlers in blood cash and a Marshall Plan.

Yeah ok; I don't get your post

1.You reckon that La Pasionara would have supported a nationalistic(putting it nice here)regime, who tumbled a democratic elected(so oder so) government and then went for the ethnic minorities ?

Give me a break, David

2. Last euro civil war ? Where ?

Could it be ...Yugoslavia ?

Who was the instigators of that one and what was it about ?

Yes; nationalism and minorities.

Do try to read up !

Absent again ?

[david44]

2. Last euro civil war ? Where ?

1939-45 you may have read about it, when the russians and germans occupied Denmark?

Yes; nationalism and minorities.

Do try to read up !

Will do having 17th eye surgeries next month in meantime big screen tv and carnal leisures.

For all their faults democricies are more accountable in general , if there are tramsparent courts, the third estate, determined investigative journalist, here Turkey even EU Slovakia journos are intimidated or worse

I'm off to raid the fridge where she thinks she's hidden 2 varieties of desert!!

While I'm ramping up reading Thicidydes, Lacan and TinTin in Thai can you sort out the Cheesman sandwich disaster , should be a mere bagatelle for a Vikinh warrior

[helge]

Originally Posted by helge
2. Last euro civil war ? Where ?

1939-45 you may have read about it, when the russians and germans occupied Denmark?

Have a good night

[bsnub]

Good news and a long time coming;

Speaker Mike Johnson and other House Republican leaders released a $95 billion foreign aid package Wednesday that provides funding for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan – as Congress continues to grapple with a response to actions taken by Russia, Iran and China that have defied the international community.

The package includes $26.4 billion for Israel aid, including $4 billion to replenish Israel Iron Dome defense system, $60.8 billion for Ukraine aid, including $23 billion for replenishing weapons and $8.1 billion for Indo-Pacific aid.

Johnson, who is facing a small revolt within his own conference and will need to rely on Democratic votes to advance the package, told members to expect a final passage vote on the package Saturday evening. But the path to getting there will be an uphill battle and could potentially cost the speaker his gavel.

Far-right Republicans are mocking Johnson's plan as the #AmericaLast Act – complaining, for example, that it includes $481 million to pay for housing, medical bills and legal fees for Ukrainian refugees coming to the United States.

"The Republican Speaker of the House is seeking a rule to pass almost $100 billion in foreign aid - while unquestionably, dangerous criminals, terrorists, & fentanyl pour across our border. The border "vote" in this package is a watered-down dangerous cover vote. I will oppose," Chip Roy, R-Texas, said in a statement on X.

Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is threatening to oust Johnson, said in a statement on X, "Speaker Johnson, voted against $300 million for Ukraine before we gave you the gavel along with the majority of Republicans, no one understands why it is now your top priority to give Ukraine $60 billion more dollars. You are seriously out of step with Republicans by continuing to pass bills dependent on Democrats."

Greene's motion to vacate the speakership hangs over Johnson's head -- though he has moved forward with his plan undeterred.

While several Republicans are coming out strongly against the plan, President Joe Biden and top Democrats are urging lawmakers to support the bills.

Biden urged the House to pass the package this week, adding that the Senate should "quickly follow."

"I will sign this into law immediately to send a message to the world: We stand with our friends, and we won't let Iran or Russia succeed," Biden wrote in a statement Wednesday.

Rep. Rosa DeLauro -- the top Democratic appropriator in the House – announced her support for the three bills, noting they "mirror" the Senate's bipartisan national security package that passed through the upper chamber on Feb. 13."After House Republicans dragged their feet for months, we finally have a path forward to provide support for our allies and desperately needed humanitarian aid," DeLauro, D-Conn., stated. "We cannot retreat from the world stage under the guise of putting 'America First.' We put America first by demonstrating the power of American leadership – that we have the strength, resolve, and heart to fight for the most vulnerable people, protect their freedom, and preserve their dignity. I urge swift passage of these bills."

Republicans are expected to unveil a fourth measure later Wednesday, including the REPO Act, sanctions, the Tik Tok bill, and other measures to "confront Russia, China and Iran."

And to appease hardliners, the House will also introduce a separate bill on the border that includes "the core components of H.R.2, under a separate rule that will allow for amendments."

If the package clears the House this weekend, the Senate will have a one-week recess to consider how to handle the legislation when the upper chamber returns on April 29.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/john...y?id=109359454

[Iceman123]

^
And now tell us all how, if the funding is forthcoming,precisely how that will change the final result for Ukraine?

[cyrille]

That's actually a good question.

[helge]

Some of the money will be for purchasing weapons from countries, who aren't keen on donating to Ukraine.

Some for paying the US millitary complex to restock the US warehouses with more modern weapons, now that they got rid of that passed by last sale stuff.

Some will be used to keep Ukraine going, pensions, civil servants etc

The rest is for corruption.


Won't change a thing

[helge]

Polish man suspected of espionage in plot for possible assassination attempt on Zelenskyy

OF
Selin Türker




A Polish man has been arrested on charges of being ready to spy on behalf of Russia's intelligence service in an alleged plot to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

This is according to Polish prosecutors and the Ukrainian security service SBU.

According to the investigation, the suspect had planned to collect and pass on information to Russia about security at Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport. Among other things, this was to help Russian services plan a possible assassination attempt on Zelenskyy during his stay in Poland.

The airport is under the control of U.S. troops and serves as a gateway for international military and humanitarian supplies to Ukraine. It also serves leaders and politicians travelling to and from Ukraine.

"Thanks to successful actions and rapid exchange of information between countries, we managed to identify and arrest a recruited agent of the Russian special services on Polish territory," the SBU said in a statement on Thursday evening.

According to Polish authorities, the man could face up to eight years in prison if found guilty.

[helge]

8 years ?

If it isn't a typo, I'd say they got nothing on that person.

[Neverna]

The Ukrainians won't let him live for 8 years.

[bsnub]

Some of the money will be for purchasing weapons from countries, who aren't keen on donating to Ukraine.

Some for paying the US millitary complex to restock the US warehouses with more modern weapons, now that they got rid of that passed by last sale stuff.

Some will be used to keep Ukraine going, pensions, civil servants etc

The rest is for corruption.

Did you just make that shit up? Because it is a steaming pile of horseshit.

Won't change a thing

Oh but it will. It will change things on the front for sure. Will it win them the war, no, but moving forward Ukraine will have plenty of ammo of all kinds. That equals more of your ruzzian comrades will eat shit. That is a good thing.

[david44]

Just a moment...

don't shoot the messenger I imagine Burns is better informed than most?

CIA Director William Burns offered a stark warning to lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Thursday: If you don’t approve aid to Ukraine now, Kyiv could lose the war by the end of the year.



Speaking at an event at the George W. Bush Presidential Center, Burns urged lawmakers to pass the supplemental that would dedicate billions to Ukraine’s war efforts.
“With the boost that would come from military assistance, both practically and psychologically, Ukrainians are entirely capable of holding their own through 2024 and puncturing Putin’s arrogant view that time is on his side,” he said.








But if that doesn’t make it through Congress, “the picture is a lot more dire,” he continued. “There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put Putin in a position where he could essentially dictate the terms of a political settlement.”
It’s perhaps the strongest warning from a senior administration official yet regarding the war, coming as officials in Kyiv warn that a looming Russian offensive in the summer — which would see massive waves of troops invading Ukraine — could overwhelm Kyiv’s struggling soldiers.
Burns’ remarks come a day after House Speaker Mike Johnson unveiled his highly-anticipated foreign aid package, which hangs in the balance as the speaker tries to secure the votes needed to tee up floor debate.



On Wednesday, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. C.Q. Brown told lawmakers that Ukraine’s “hard-fought gains can be lost without our support,” while Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also warned that if the supplemental is delayed, allies and partners “will question whether or not … we are a reliable partner.”









President Joe Biden also said he strongly supports the bills released by Johnson. For months, the administration has said lawmakers’ inability to pass Ukraine aid is a major reason Kyiv’s is struggling on the battlefield.
Supporting Ukraine right now is about more than the war with Russia, Burns argued during the event.


“It’s also about Xi Jinping in China, his ambitions, and our allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific,” he said. “This is really a question of whether or not our adversaries understand our reliability and determination and whether our allies and partners understand that as well.”

[Norton]

Will it win them the war, no

What in your opinion will, snubs.
I have posted a couple times what I think is a war win strategy.

[Troy]

^ You won't be seeing NATO troops, on the ground, and in numbers, helping to defend Ukraine. You won't even see NATO planes defending Ukraine airspace.

Ukraine can't even get its own people drafted in to defend their country.

It's really just a matter of time before Russia siezes enough land to call a victory to its domestic audience. The fear of attacking a NATO country will pass. That won't happen in the near future. Russia has lost too much material.

The war has taught a few lessons and there will be a lot of investment in the production of drones of all sizes.

The question is was it all worth it...

[david44]

Ukraine can't even get its own people drafted in to defend their country

A big problem and offputting for non European donors.

[Norton]

You won't be seeing NATO troops, on the ground, and in numbers, helping to defend Ukraine. You won't even see NATO planes defending Ukraine airspace.

Agree even though this along with heavy sanctions on China and India are what needs done to win the war. Win is to regain all Russian occupied territory.

[david44]

Win is to regain all Russian occupied territory.

yes but seems so slow Ukraine may run out of volunteers beefore Putin runs out of conscripts