Ukraine war mega thread

[harrybarracuda]

Full Article- [/SIZE]https://scheerpost.com/2022/12/27/the-ukraine-crisis-is-a-classic-security-dilemma/

More utter bollocks.

Ukraine does not "want" a prolonged conflict.

It wants the land Russia stole to be returned, and Russia to fuck off.

You and you fucking fairy stories.

[sabang]

If you've got the balls, may as well read the article too-

The most important question | The Vineyard of the Saker

Happy New Year. May you live in interesting times.

[harrybarracuda]

Should have read that a bit earlier, shouldn't you?

I have been warning that Russia is preparing for a fullscale war since at least 2014.

[bsnub]

Should have read that a bit earlier, shouldn't you?

He reminds me of Boon Mee. That clown would see a headline that fit into his narrative, but when you read the actual article, it actually disproved the point he was trying to make. Sabs has done that countless times.

Talk about clowning yourself.

[sabang]

If I find one, I will have to post a schematic- "Putin is dying of...." headlines too.

[sabang]

FULL- Russia To Supply Iran With Dozens Of Su-35 Fighter JetsSouth Front

[sabang]

Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher

The birth rate of Ukraine is expected to drop to catastrophic levels in 2023 and lead to the country’s population dropping to 35 million in the coming years. This is a demographic crisis that Ukraine will find extremely difficult to escape from, even if the war was to end tomorrow.

“Next year will see a catastrophic drop in the birth rate, and there is a risk that by 2030 the population of Ukraine will drop to 35 million,” said Professor Ella Libanova, Academician-Secretary at The National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and Director of M.V. Ptukha (Institute for Demography and Social Studies).

She added that the main factor is the war as it contributes to a high mortality rate, stress, overload, poor nutrition, and a lack of medical care, all of which has an effect on reproduction and birth rates.

The expert noted that a Ukrainian woman would need to give birth to 2.13 – 2.15 children in her lifetime to maintain Ukraine’s current population of approximately 43.1 million. According to her, in 2021, the average birth rate in Ukraine was 1.1, and in 2022 it will be“even less”.

Libanova said that many of the people that have left Ukraine are “young women of active reproductive and working age, which means that they are not working in Ukraine today and not giving birth to children here.”

“It is clear that the purely quantitative effect is negative. But given the catastrophic decline of the economy due to the war, most likely these women would not have found work in Ukraine, and their presence would have increased pressure on the labor market,” the professor explained.

According to M.V. Ptukha, the population of Ukraine has decreased every year since 1994. The current population is estimated at 43.1 million, butit is recalled that in the 2001 All-Ukrainian Census, nearly 48 million people lived in Ukraine.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of August 9, found that more than 10.5 million people fled Ukraine to go into neighbouring countries. Since then,more than 4.4 million people have returned to their homes.

Although many people have returned to their homes, Libanova stressed that Ukrainian women still abroad will be less incentivised to return “because each new month of their stay […] deepens their adaptation – their knowledge of the language improves, their children go to schools and universities, and mothers take on work.”

At the same time, according Oleg Soskin, a former adviser to the President of Ukraine, Kiev is becoming a ghost city due to the massive influx of people leaving.

“Rent in Kiev is falling and there is no longer demand. This means that migrants in Kiev are starting to leave, and there are 400,000 of them. Kiev is slowly becoming a ghost city thanks to Klitschko and all the people like Zelensky, Yermak and Shmyhal,” he said on his YouTube channel.

Soskin urged Ukrainians to leave towns and villages where production has stopped working and where there is no water, electricity, and heating systems.

“Manufacturing is going down, the economy is going down, banks are almost unable to hold out. Therefore, devaluation, inflation. Don’t linger in ghost towns,” he advised.

Following the Kiev regime’s terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge, Russia began launching missile attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure. The targets of the retaliatory strikes were energy facilities, defence industry, military command, and communications. The knock-on effects of such strikes mean electricity cuts and other inconveniences to citizens.

Soskin also highlighted that Ukrainians are being taken off city streets and forced to the front lines, which points out that Zelensky is becoming an “undisguised dictator in the eyes of the people.”

“Zelensky says what is democracy, what is freedom, and that we do not have a dictatorship, but in fact we are a dictatorship,” he said, before revealing that he receives videos of Ukrainians being forced off the streets of Dnieper, Chernivtsi, Krivoy Rog and other cities so that they can fight on the front lines.

Along with Kiev becoming a “ghost city”, people being forced off the streets to fight on the front lines, and Ukrainian women in Europe unlikely to return to their country, Ukraine faces a significant demographic crisis that will only worsen with its deepening economic crisis.

According to the Washington Post, at a closed-door meeting at the National Bank of Ukraine in December, central bank officials warned that if Russia’s attacks intensified,“people could flee Ukraine in droves, taking their money with them and crash the national currency as they seek to exchange their Ukrainian hryvnia for euros or dollars.”

“The Ukrainian government could be left without international reserves to pay for critical imports and unable to meet its foreign debt obligations — a doomsday scenario known as a balance-of-payments crisis,” the report added.

With such a dire economic situation, it is only inevitable that Ukrainian couples will have less children, and much later in life, even if wartime factors are suddenly excluded. This is a crisis that Ukraine cannot avoid now, even if the war is to end tomorrow.

Demographic Expert Warns Ukraine Will Experience “Catastrophic Drop” In Birth RateSouth Front

[bsnub]

So more propaganda from southfront. You really are a joke and nothing more at this point.

[sabang]

So more moaning from recruit snubski. You really are good for a laugh.

[helge]

So more moaning from recruit snubski.

Remember that he'll have you stand trial for spreading agit/prop, when the day comes

You really are good for a laugh.

We'll see who laughs then, motherfucker !




He really is an odd specimen

[Iceman123]

^
It’s not funny, I have been questioned 3 times by the Australian Service for stating that I didn’t think Ukraine were winning.

The Snubski has contacts everywhere

[helge]

The Snubski has contacts everywhere

Yes

Except outside Seattle

[harrybarracuda]

Still amazed anyone is cretinous enough to cheerlead for Putin at this point.

Fortunately it's always the same oxygen thieves.

[Hugh Cow]

Just who did Vietnam invade to qualify for this benevolence from the US. Let’s throw in Cambodia, Laos (the most bombed country in history) Afghanistan, Grenada etc.

There is a lot to unpack in your post. The US find it very difficult to accept that the majority of humanity do not want their brand of democracy.

The US is on the wane, it is apparent. Like it or not China is the star in ascendancy.

Many people see the US as sick society, their 3rd rate healthcare, education system, welfare, and absolute crazy gun laws manifest this clearly.

Russia has existed for a lot longer than the US, don’t count on its demise.

You are now letting your anti Americanism cloud your objectivity. It is unlikely China will become a larger economy in the forseeable future if ever. It still has a high degree of poverty and it is still dependent on exports to the west. Its property market makes up over 20% of its GDP and is in real trouble with crippling debt. Much of its belt and road loans will more than likely never be repaid. An invasion of Taiwan would bring huge sanctions. The U.S. dollar pervades everything and the renminbi is way behind the euro let alone the USD. The U.S. cannot be viewed in isolation. The western alliance covers most of the G20 and China will face the whole of the western alliance. Whilst many of your points on the U.S. are valid, western democracies have the power to change and renew. European democracies IMO are much better forms than the American model and will gradually influence the USA albeit over time. Dictatorships/autocracies by their very nature cannot allow the type of descent that allows democratic countries to change and renew. The reason Russia is mostly an energy and farm product supplier. The west is finally waking up from its vision of peace through trade and now is starting to turn off the technology tap which China has been copying and stealing for years.
Then there is the 3.5% rule which will IMO eventually strike at these autocracies/dictatorships.


The '''3.5% rule''': How a small minority can change the world - BBC Future
The Russian population is lower in 2022 than it was in 1907, despite the world population quadrupling in that period. Hardly the sign of a progressive country but more like one on the decline.

[Hugh Cow]

Bugger, no editing in the DH is a PITA.

[Hugh Cow]

Sabang...."Seems like a losing hand to me norts. The USA may be 'hurting' Russia- but it is hurting it's allies more. And the emerging 'Multipolar world order' is household talk now, at least outside the US".

Household talk? Really? I can only assume unless you are completely deluded, that you were refering to your own household and then probably only because you drone on about it completely boring the ass of of the rest of your family. Jeesus wept, now I've heard everything...New world order is household talk, do you not know how ridiculous your assanine statement is? Even OhOh wouldnt try that one on.

[sabang]

It is unlikely China will become a larger economy in the forseeable future if ever.

Untrue- you are letting your sinophobia cloud your objectivity. It is already larger based on PPP, in Absolute terms will happen in the next decade or so.

It still has a high degree of poverty and it is still dependent on exports to the west

Lifting 800 Million People Out of Poverty – New Report Looks at Lessons from China’s Experience

^ Perhaps I should have added the Rider, educated/ informed households hughie. It's really quite simple- in the 1950's the USA had some 55% of the World's GDP alone. Much of the rest of the world was decimated, recovering from WW2. No wonder it became a Unipolar order- but you would have to admit, this is somewhat of a historical anomaly.

Now, the USA is still a behemoth- with some 23.9% of World GDP in Absolute terms, or 13.6% in PPP adjusted terms (China is already bigger here, at 18.4%). Then there are the BRICs- in particular India- which is predicted to overtake even China late this century given demographic trends. Thus, an emerging Multipolar World Order- which frankly, in the international investment biz, we were reading about 20 years ago.

[Hugh Cow]

Untrue- you are letting your sinophobia cloud your objectivity. It is already larger based on PPP, in Absolute terms will happen in the next decade or so.

Lifting 800 Million People Out of Poverty – New Report Looks at Lessons from China’s Experience

^ Perhaps I should have added the Rider, educated/ informed households hughie. It's really quite simple- in the 1950's the USA had some 55% of the World's GDP alone. Much of the rest of the world was decimated, recovering from WW2. No wonder it became a Unipolar order- but you would have to admit, this is somewhat of a historical anomaly.

Now, the USA is still a behemoth- with some 23.9% of World GDP in Absolute terms, or 13.6% in PPP adjusted terms (China is already bigger here, at 18.4%). Then there are the BRICs- in particular India- which is predicted to overtake even China late this century given demographic trends. Thus, an emerging Multipolar World Order- which frankly, in the international investment biz, we were reading about 20 years ago.

I am not sinophobic just because I recognise the danger to ourselves and other countries that you aparently dont. I'm surprised you didnt quote the big Mac index. As usual you selectively report is a measure that is considered a poor reflection of reality.
You could've also listed GDP per capita which puts China at number 65. At current GDP growth China will take 10 years to equal the USA providing USA growth over the next 10 years is zero. Even if China maintains its growth rate of 2.5 times the of the USAs' current rate of 2.7% it will take more than 25 years to equal the USA.
Its growth rate will depend on its trade with the west (current GDP around 45 trillion USD) which will plummet if it invades Taiwan, although hopefully the isolation and the coming disaster in Russia wont be lost on them.
As every country has found, from the American revolution to Afghanistan, fighting wars on other peoples turf rarely ends well. Especially when crossing water to get there.
As the great Admiral Nelson proved, its not the size of the force but the quality of your officers and troops. (As Vlad is learning).
,

[bsnub]

You are now letting your anti Americanism cloud your objectivity.

They always do.

[bsnub]

BAKHMUT AXIS /1245 UTC 30 DEC/ RU units have crossed the rail right-of-way W. of Myika Pond & again at Andriivka and Kurdiumivka. These gains have proven costly: in the last 24 hours, RU has sustained 690 troops killed in action and at least 1800 wounded on all axes of contact.

[Shutree]

FWIW, my heart goes out to the people of Ukraine who are suffering terribly, not only for themselves but for the free world.
I am sure some cynics will take a swipe. It's okay, go ahead, I am, in fact, free to think and say as I wish.
Wishing all Ukranians, wherever they are, a happier next year.

[OhOh]

Even OhOh wouldnt try that one on.

Living in a rural/farming community, be rest assured geopolitics is not high on their agenda. Improving crop yields and ensuring an early harvest are their targets.

As for GDP per capita or GDP PPP, why accept NaGaStan inflated prices as global prices, when all countries have different prices for goods and various services.

(Chinas) growth rate will depend on its trade with the west

The 16% is haemorrhaging, try GDP - DEBT, as we type, the world "growth" is in the remaining 84%, who will, by their choices and actions be decisive.

The abuse of global institutions, UNGA, UNSC, WTO, by the 16% is being eradicated, daily.

[OhOh]

GDP - DEBT

GDP minus DEBT.

[panama hat]

If you only knew what you are talking about, OhWoe

[sabang]