Ukraine war mega thread

[bsnub]

News flash, that flag was and is in the Halls of Congress!!

[NamPikToot]

News flash, that flag was and is in the Halls of Congress!!

what?

[Norton]

What do you mean with 'overwhelm with numbers' ?

Yes I was. Untrained matters not. Large differences in numbers will inflict large losses on attackers especially in a winter offense.

[sabang]

Besides, when the ground freezes over, we will be having a different discussion.

When Hell freezes over, we might. Meanwhile your 'talking points' are the same as they were 6 months ago recruit snubski.

• still waiting for Russia to run out of men and munitions. Au contraire, Russia is blasting the Ukrainian power grid apart with missiles, and has called up 300k reserves- most still in training. There are many more available, if needs be.
• still waiting for big bad Vlad to be assassinated, deposed, succumb to cancer, dementia, Parkinsons, whatever. His popularity rating remains buoyant- above what is was before the invasion. He is said to have sired another child.
• still waiting for this fabled Ukrainian offensive, which will sweep Russia out of 'Ukraine', including Crimea.. Actually, the talk in Ukrainian military command now is of a possible Russian offensive.
• Putin is still "having his ass handed to him on a plate", while sitting on 20% of 'Ukraine'. Ukrainian forces are not gaining territory now, they are incrementally losing territory (nothing much though).
• the last 'Wunderwaffe' was Himars- it was gonna change everything I tell ya. Is the new one a single Patriot system? I don't think so.
• you still allege Russia is losing way more personnel than Ukraine. The EU and Pentagon have admitted otherwise.
• you still enthusiastically advocate "as much as it takes, whatever it takes". Meanwhile western economies are declining- especially Europe, and Nato is running short of arnaments. I read that 13 years of Javelin production have already been consumed in the 9-10 months of this war. They can't be replaced overnight.

So you can wave your tired old NAFO chickenhawk flag as enthusiastically as you want. It changes nothing on the ground.

[Takeovers]

what?

Yes, really.

[sabang]

Washington’s refusal to acknowledge Russia’s legitimate security interests in Ukraine and negotiate an end to this war is the path to protracted conflict and human suffering.


During a speech given on November 29, Polish Vice-Minister of National Defense (MON) Marcin Ociepa said: "The probability of a war in which we will be involved is very high. Too high for us to treat this scenario only hypothetically." The Polish MON is allegedly planning to call up 200,000 reservists in 2023 for a few weeks’ training, but observers in Warsaw suspect this action could easily lead to a national mobilization.

Meanwhile, inside the Biden administration, there is growing concern that the Ukrainian war effort will collapse under the weight of a Russian offensive. And as the ground in Southern Ukraine finally freezes, the administration’s fears are justified. In an interview published in the Economist, head of Ukraine’s armed forces General Valery Zaluzhny admitted that Russian mobilization and tactics are working. He even hinted that Ukrainian forces might be unable to withstand the coming Russian onslaught.

Yet, Zaluzhny rejected any notion of a negotiated settlement and instead pleaded for more equipment and support. He went on to insist that with 300 new tanks, 600 to 700 new infantry fighting vehicles, and 500 new Howitzers, he could still win the war with Russia. Truthfully, General Zaluzhny is not asking for assistance, he’s asking for a new army. Therein lies the greatest danger for Washington and its NATO allies.

When things go badly for Washington’s foreign policy, the true believers in the great cause always draw deeply from the well of ideological self-delusion to steel themselves for the final battle. Blinken, Klain, Austin, and the rest of the war party continue to pledge eternal support for Kiev regardless of the cost. Like the “best and the brightest” of the 1960s they are eager to sacrifice realism to wishful thinking, to wallow in the splash of publicity and self-promotion in one public visit to Ukraine after another.

This spectacle is frighteningly reminiscent of events more than 50 years ago, when Washington’s proxy war in Vietnam was failing. Doubters within the Johnson administration about the wisdom of intervening on the ground to rescue Saigon from certain destruction went into hiding. In 1963, Washington already had 16,000 military advisors in Vietnam. The idea that Washington was supporting a government in South Vietnam that might not win against North Vietnam was dismissed out of hand. Secretary of State Dean Rusk said, “We will not pull out until the war is won.”

By the spring of 1965, American military advisors were already dying. General Westmoreland, then commander of Military Assistance Command Vietnam, reported to LBJ: “It is increasingly apparent that the existing levels of United States aid cannot prevent the collapse of South Vietnam... North Vietnam is moving in for the kill... Acting on the request of the South Vietnamese government, the decision must be made to commit as soon as possible 125,000 United States troops to prevent the Communist takeover.”

The Biden administration’s unconditional support for the Zelensky regime in Kiev is reaching a strategic inflection point not unlike the one LBJ reached in 1965. Just as LBJ suddenly determined in 1964 that peace and security in Southeast Asia was a vital U.S. strategic interest, the Biden administration is making a similar argument now for Ukraine. Like South Vietnam in the 1960s, Ukraine is losing its war with Russia.

Ukraine’s hospitals and morgues are filled to capacity with wounded and dying Ukrainian soldiers. Washington’s proxy in Kiev has squandered its human capital and considerable Western aid in a series of self-defeating counter-offensives. Ukrainian soldiers manning the defensive lines facing Russian soldiers in Southern Ukraine are brave men, but they are not fools. The Spartans at Thermopylae were brave, and they still died.

The real danger now is that Biden will soon appear on television to repeat LBJ’s performance in 1965, substituting the word "Ukraine" for "South Vietnam":

Tonight, my fellow Americans I want to speak to you about freedom, democracy, and the struggle of the Ukrainian people for victory. No other question so preoccupies our people. No other dream so absorbs the millions who live in Ukraine and Eastern Europe… However, I am not talking about a NATO attack on Russia. Rather, I propose to send a U.S. led coalition of the willing, consisting of American, Polish, and Romanian armed forces into Ukraine, to establish the ground equivalent of a “no-fly zone.” The mission I propose is a peaceful one, to create a safe zone in the Western most portion of Ukraine for Ukrainian Forces and refugees struggling to survive Russia’s devastating attacks…

Disaster wrapped in rhetoric is not the way to save the people of Ukraine. The war in Ukraine is not a Call of Duty fantasy. It is an enlargement of the human tragedy that NATO’s eastward expansion created. The victims do not live in North America. They live in a region that most Americans can't find on a map. Washington urged the Ukrainians to fight. Now Washington must urge them to stop.

NATO’s governments are divided in their thinking about the war in Ukraine. Except for Poland and, possibly, Romania, none of NATO’s members are in a rush to mobilize their forces for a long, grueling war of attrition with Russia in Ukraine. No one in London, Paris, or, Berlin wants to run the risk of a nuclear war with Moscow. Americans do not support going to war with Russia, and those few who do are ideologues, shallow political opportunists, or greedy defense contractors.

When U.S. forces finally withdrew from Southeast Asia, Americans thought that Washington would exercise greater restraint, recognize the limits of American power, and pursue a less militant, and more realistic foreign policy. Americans were mistaken then, but Americans and Europeans know now that Washington’s refusal to acknowledge Russia’s legitimate security interests in Ukraine and negotiate an end to this war is the path to protracted conflict and more human suffering.


ABOUT THE AUTHOR


Douglas Macgregor

Douglas Macgregor, Col. (ret.) is a senior fellow with The American Conservative, the former advisor to the Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration, a decorated combat veteran, and the author of five books.

https://www.theamericanconservative....nes-suffering/

[helge]

Agreed, the Russians have far more Artillery options at their choice, but apparently they are being over-used and close to end of life/in need of major overhaul.

'Apparently'
Could be and maybe not

Ukrainian artillery "apparently" doesn't need "overhaul"

Agreed. The losses seem to be way higher with the Russians.

I don't think so

But maybe

Any real numbers ?

No; you can't get them

The Russians have been trying for months to take Bakhmut, and they still do not even have a foothold in the city FFS. Zelensky fucking went there yesterday.

No, he wasn't in Bakmut yesterday

It's being leveled as we speak

[helge]

Yes I was. Untrained matters not. Large differences in numbers will inflict large losses on attackers especially in a winter offense.

Hmm; not sure I understand your post.

But yes

Attackers will take greater losses, if the defenders hold the lines.

Let's see who'll attempt a push forward.


And soon there will be a new congress overthere, who might have another view at this mess

[bsnub]

So you can wave your tired old NAFO chickenhawk flag as enthusiastically as you want. It changes nothing on the ground.

So when is Russia going to stop retreating? They sure are not taking any new ground. The last six months, all the victories on the battlefield have been Ukrainian. Odd that you miss that reality.

No, he wasn't in Bakmut yesterday

It's being leveled as we speak

The footage of him being there is literally everywhere.



If it is being leveled, why has Russia not even been able to enter the city after months of trying to take it?



You useful idiots are literally clueless as to what is happening on the ground.

[Hugh Cow]

This extract from a novel titled ZOV by Pavel Fiadiev a former Russian soldier involved in the Ukraine war gives a little insight into the Russian batallion he served in. How much it relates to the Russian army as a whole is hard to say definitively but one would think there would have to be some similarities. He has had to leave Russia after publishing on the internet. The English translation is not perfect but it does give some insight into the first two months of the war and some insight why the russians did so badly in the initial stages. It is quite long but worth a read IMO.

ZOV.pdf Machine Translation to English - Czmyt'''s Pubs

[sabang]

You useful idiots are literally clueless as to what is happening on the ground.

I must be- the ground has frozen over in Ukraine, and still no sign of this Winter offensive you keep telling us about.

[harrybarracuda]

has called up 300k reserves- most still in training. There are many more available, if needs be.

Sabang clearly doesn't understand the meaning of the word "conscript" and equates it with "reserves".

He also seems to rather have his head in the sand about the mass exodus of men of fighting age desperate to avoid being "reserves".

[Buckaroo Banzai]

Well, here's an idea . . . e can stop the next war by not invading a militarily vastly inferior country that posed no danger.

Simples

Here is another idea,
small countries should not invite the enemies of bigger countries they border.

[pickel]

I must be- the ground has frozen over in Ukraine, and still no sign of this Winter offensive you keep telling us about.

Currently 1 degree in Bakhmut and 2 degrees in Melitopol. The videos from the battlefield today show muddy ground. As usual, you need better sources.

[panama hat]

Here is another idea,
small countries should not invite the enemies of bigger countries they border.

I'm sure everyone would be fascinated by your proof of how Ukraine 'invited' to be invaded.

You're a nice guy but this is the most stupid fucking 'point' made about this war.

[bsnub]

I must be- the ground has frozen over in Ukraine, and still no sign of this Winter offensive you keep telling us about.

7am in Kyiv, current temperature is 1c with a daytime high of 4c.
In Melitopol current temp is 3c with a high of 6c.

As usual, you have no idea what you are talking about.

[bsnub]

Sabang clearly doesn't understand the meaning of the word "conscript" and equates it with "reserves".

He is a completely clueless buffoon, as was just proven in my above post. There are no reserve armies in Russia, only conscripts, as you pointed out.

Laughable idiocy by him.

[panama hat]

Washington Is Prolonging Ukraine's Suffering

By helping Ukraine to defend itself . . . a very odd point of view, unhealthy and downright idiotic.

[bsnub]

downright idiotic.

Seems to be a theme with him.

[HermantheGerman]

By helping Ukraine to defend itself . . . a very odd point of view, unhealthy and downright idiotic.

Nothing new from Down Under

[bsnub]

[sabang]

Interesting, considering that when Congress reconvenes in mid-January, it will be Republican controlled. I think the days of the unlimited cheque book are over-


More Than Half of House Republicans Didn’t Attend Zelensky’s Address


According to The Hill, 86 out of 213 House Republicans were at the Capitol for Zelensky’s speech. While some of the absences could be explained by lawmakers getting an early start on Christmas travel, as about a third of House members had active letters to vote by proxy on Wednesday, there is growing opposition to the policy of arming Ukraine among Republicans.

FULL- https://news.antiwar.com/2022/12/22/more-than-half-of-house-republicans-didnt-attend-zelenskys-address/

[Norton]

According to The Hill, 86 out of 213 House Republicans were at the Capitol for Zelensky’s speech

Of the 86 that were there I am sure far more than the 13 needed to pass the budget will vote to do so. Hell, from the ones there I bet they will want it increased.

[Takeovers]

Of the 86 that were there I am sure far more than the 13 needed to pass the budget will vote to do so. Hell, from the ones there I bet they will want it increased.

Sure. But once the GOP has a majority and more than 50% of those are MAGA/Trump minions they control the agenda and block the legislative process by not putting laws on the agenda when they have a clear majority. If there is one thing the MAGA crowd is good at it is obstruction of government processes. But with the budget for Ukraine passed they can achieve little in 2023.

[bsnub]

But with the budget for Ukraine passed they can achieve little in 2023.

Yep, $43 billion for them, on top of that Biden can use the presidential drawdown authority. Sabang is really proving to be utterly clueless today.

First, he gets the weather in Ukraine wrong. Then he falsely claimed that Russia has "reserves" and now this.

The hits keep on coming.