Ukraine war mega thread

[helge]

As a suggestion, we could shorten this war considerably if Putin and his mercenaries simply fvcked off back to Russia. Personally I think that would be an excellent idea.

So, Shutree...

You and I are men, and we are solution oriented.

Your....solution is not going to happen and we can't let this carry on

What is your Plan B ?

[helge]

The Ukrainians insist they are extremely careful about what they shoot at, even when they receive fire from the vicinity of the Zaporizhzhia plant

Insist away, nutters

[sabang]

By Eugenio de Dobrynne,
Published on The Postil Magazine, Dec 1, 2022:

Editorial comment: Casualty estimates vary. More recent estimates putting casualties based on counts on both sides since 24 February at:
Ukraine
Dead 124,000
Wounded 490,000
Missing 113,000
Civilian dead 8,900
Russia and militias
Dead 31,800
Wounded 163,670
Missing 4,301
Civilian dead 14,808

It is not power plants that are being targeted but electrical infrastructure.
_________________________

So says Western media… And if all we do is listen to what is published in the West and listen to what the various “strategists” say on all the talk-shows, we would come to the following conclusions:

• Russia has lost the war, with the capture of Kherson by the Ukrainian army and its offensives in the north of the Donbass.
• The casualties among the ranks of the Russian army are very considerable and it is demoralized, its generals are incompetent and are dying at the front, if they are not dismissed and arrested.
• The Russian army has practically no more ammunition left to continue the war and its missiles are unable to reach their targets, thanks to the excellent Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense that intercepts them. And Russia is also running out of missiles.
• The Ukrainian army has reconquered territory in the Kherson region and its offensives in the north of Donbass, as well as its resistance on the Donetsk front, augur a clear victory of its army which will lead them to reconquer all the territory annexed by Russia, including, of course, Crimea, forcing Russia to sign a peace which will lead its current president, Vladimir Putin, to be tried and sentenced and make recompense for all the expenses undertaken because of the conflict.
• As for the Russian people, they do not want this war and hope for a quick replacement of their president by one of the opposition leaders, who will be much more liberal and supported by the United States and Europe.
• Faced with this disaster, Putin and his generals have resorted to wild, indiscriminate shelling of the Ukrainian population, leaving these people without electricity, water and supplies. The Russians do not rule out the use of nuclear weapons, if things get even worse.

Such is the picture painted by the European and Anglo-American mass media, although it must be acknowledged that the latter are making an effort to provide other, more objective analyses in view of the latest developments in the conflict. The intellectual laziness of many information professionals, who limit themselves to reproducing the propaganda reports of Zelensky’s government, if not submitting to the doxa dictated by the media management bodies, as well as the censorship imposed by the authorities and pressure groups, prevent a more impartial knowledge of the real situation of the conflict.

To begin with, Russia cannot lose this war, nor can it give up the territories that since the referendums have been incorporated into the Russian Federation. First of all, it is a question of survival in the face of the Anglo-American world’s determination to put an end to the existence of a Russia that opposes its hegemonic domination and that, on the contrary, is committed to a multipolar world where a balance of forces coexists. Secondly, the Russian society, and even more so the recently annexed populations, and in particular the Donbass regions which have suffered a war for eight years, would never accept to stop being part of Russia.

As for the situation on the ground, if we look at the development of events from the information provided by objective military specialists and analysts, some even coming from armies committed to Ukrainian interests, since the appointment of General Surovikin as Commander-in-Chief of the Armies in the Ukrainian campaign, things have changed quite a lot. His appointment has meant a single command, subordinating the rest of the generals who earlier directed the operations in each of the territories where they acted independently and without coordination with the rest. Since his appointment, a reorganization of the troops assigned to the operation has been carried out, rotating them after the attrition suffered during these nine months of war and reinforcing their material, in particular with artillery pieces and armored vehicles, and massively incorporating observation and destruction drones.

From the tactical point of view, Russia has no need, as Surovikin himself stated, to expose its soldiers uselessly, when it has other means at its disposal to win this war. Russia, because of its demographic situation, cannot afford to send hundreds of thousands of young men to the front, as the Soviets did in World War II, with the result that that entailed. The use of tactical missiles directed against military installations and recently against strategic infrastructures, whose effectiveness is difficult to refute in view of the express acknowledgement by the Ukrainian authorities themselves, is bringing about a substantial change in the course of this conflict.

What some media have considered as a defeat and a withdrawal of the Russian army in Kherson, has been in reality a tactical withdrawal to avoid exposing a significant part of its troops who could have been surrounded in a compromising situation, and thus to better defend themselves. It has been sold that the Ukrainians had defeated the Russians and that this meant that they had practically won the war. The reality is that the Russians have temporarily ceded ground to regroup and organize themselves. They have abandoned the city, transforming it into a ghost town without electricity or water and with a population, albeit a very small one, which the Ukrainian troops will have to feed. At the same time, they have moved, in a successful operation, to the other bank of the Dnieper, turning the river into a natural line of defense very difficult to cross, since at this time, its width is about two kilometers.

So much so that in spite of the fact that the operation had been announced in advance by Surovikin himself, something surprising for a military commander, the Ukrainian forces did not give him credit and delayed their entry into the city until they were certain that it had been abandoned by the Russians, as they believed that it was all a trap. The withdrawal was made without loss of material or men and in an orderly manner, despite the fact that more than 20,000 men were mobilized. Previously, more than 150,000 civilians had been evacuated from the city to the other side, under Ukrainian artillery shelling. They even moved the remains of the founder of the city and mythical person in the history of Russia, Marshal Potemkin, so that his remains would not be desecrated by the Ukrainian troops. Clear proof of this is that we have not seen those images of casualties or destroyed materials that the Ukrainian propaganda media lavished so much on when, at the beginning, they confronted the Russian forces. What has been seen, on the contrary, is a deserted city whose population is trying to survive in hardship and which has been announced that it will be evacuated because of the impossibility of supplying it, while the repressive rearguard forces are engaged in arresting the Russians’ collaborators. In their military history, the Russians have a long experience of strategic retreats that have been successful.

Located on the other bank of the river, with the natural barrier of its width and the difficulty of crossing it under artillery fire, the Russian troops have a considerable advantage. So much so that part of the troops assigned at the time to this front have been transferred to the Donbass front to reinforce the offensive which is being carried out there and which, little by little, is gaining ground despite the difficulty of overcoming the lines of fortifications built by the Ukrainians more than eight years ago and which they have been defending with extraordinary courage and tenacity.

The mobilization of reservists decreed last September and the enlistment of volunteers means the incorporation of 318,000 soldiers and commanders directly on the front line. Unlike the mobilized Ukrainians, who are already in their seventh or eighth mobilization with hardly any training, these troops are undergoing intense military training by veterans of the operation, so that their incorporation will be carried out when they have completed their training and proven their operational capacity. As of today, about 80,000 of them have already joined the front lines, integrating into already hardened units. The rest will do so by mid-December. There has been no haste, and their training is being prioritized to avoid casualties and strengthen their effectiveness.

Meanwhile, on other fronts, Donetsk and Lugansk, Russian troops are advancing slowly, favoring artillery fire both when advancing and retreating, avoiding unnecessary exposure of men and material. The use of observation drones for the localization of enemy forces is being abundantly employed, with excellent results, as this allows for accurate and effective artillery fire. There is abundant filming that proves their use and effectiveness. The practical non-existence of Ukrainian aviation, because it was cancelled at the beginning, and the little effectiveness of its anti-aircraft defenses, in spite of receiving new Western materials, makes Russian aviation have control of the skies and intervene more and more in support of the troops on the ground. Although the equipment provided is not always of the latest generation, the technological complexity also requires trained servants when it comes to more modern systems, which is why the Russians are suspicious of the involvement of NATO troops who covertly handle such equipment.

The Russians are expected to carry out a major offensive when weather conditions permit, i.e., when the ground freezes, because now, with the heavy rains, it is impracticable. The Ukrainians are suffering to a greater extent, because much of the material sent by the Ottoman allies, replacing the Soviet material they had and have been losing, is wheeled, unlike the Russian material, in which tracks predominate. The priority will undoubtedly be focused on recovering the territories of the Donbass up to its territorial limits and, perhaps, on descending from above along the right bank of the Dnieper to recover the territories of Zaporiyia and Kherson. Who knows if they will not go on to Odessa. Nor can the Russians afford to delay their offensive too long, because the longer they delay, the more time the Ukrainian army will have to mobilize and train its levies.

On the other hand, the destruction, by means of tactical missiles, of energy infrastructures, especially power plants and sub-power plants, by the Russian forces, is having considerable effects on the deterioration of the supply on the material fronts, since it prevents their transfer from the borders, slowing down their offensives and weakening their defenses. Although its effects are being felt to a greater extent on the living conditions of civilians, depriving them of electricity and water, the destruction of these infrastructures was something that Russian military officials had been demanding for some time in view of the increase in military aid received by the Ukrainian army from its NATO allies.

Finally, as far as casualties are concerned, the number of deaths in the ranks of the Ukrainian army is staggering. According to American officials, there are about 100,000 dead, to which must be added the wounded in the proportion of three for every one dead. This means that, between the dead and the wounded, they are losing between 300 and 400 men a day on the various fronts. Russian losses are around 48,000 wounded and 16,000 dead, 8,000 of which belong to the Russian army and the rest to the territorial units, Chechen forces and the Wagner group. It should be borne in mind that the brunt of the war has so far been carried out by the territorial units of the Donbass and the special forces on their respective fronts. Initially, the Russian army have started the conflict with between 125,000 and 150,000 troops, to which were added about 60,000 mobilized between the territorial troops of the Donbass and the Chechen special forces and the Wagner Group, with 10,000 troops each. For its part, the Ukrainian army numbered about 600,000 men at the beginning of the conflict. According to UN data, more than 10,000 civilians were killed between the two sides during the eight months of the conflict.

We will probably soon witness a change in the situation, both on the ground and politically, although the media and talk show hosts with careers in the offices of Brussels or NATO headquarters tell us that the Ukrainian army is going to win this war and that they will force Russia to return the annexed territories. American officials have already suggested to Zelensky that he should reconsider negotiating with Russia, and we know that he who pays the piper calls the tune, and American governments have never been known for their unswerving loyalty to the leader of the day. Rather, they have been dedicated to defending their own interests.

***
Eugenio de Dobrynne writes for El Manifesto, through whose courtesy this article appears.

“Russia Has Lost the War” - New Cold War: Know Better


Not exactly the picture being provided by Ukrainian/ anglo propaganda including snubski's impeccable sources, is it?

[bsnub]

The Postil Magazine

What complete crap. Another propaganda "blog". Those numbers are pure fantasy, as are the nonsensical claims in the article.

[bsnub]

Back in reality, the Ukrainians have knocked out a key bridge leading into Melitipol from the east toward Mariupol. It is the main logistical supply route for the entirety of the south to include Crimea.

https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/st...78578968051722
https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/sta...83237162090497
https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/st...76220615786497
https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/sta...88264719089674

[sabang]

We will see over the next few months who has been spouting nonsense and propaganda, recruit snubski. No point saying more at this point in time. Lets just say some of your comments are being preserved for posterity.


The Postil Magazine, fwiw, is a Christian publication- easily googled.

[bsnub]

We will see over the next few months who has been spouting nonsense and propaganda, recruit snubski. No point saying more at this point in time. Lets just say some of your comments are being preserved for posterity.

In the next few months, your motherland is going to get an epic level rogering. Mark that one for posterity.

The Postil Magazine, fwiw, is a Christian publication- easily googled.

[sabang]

Mark that one for posterity.

Duly done, and we shall see if this 'Epic level rogering' comes to pass, or not. Unfortunately I don't think your gratuitous laughies are being copied though.

[sabang]

By Dan Kovalik,
Published on the Pittsburg Post Gazette, Dec 1, 2022:

Dan Kovalik has just returned for Donetsk in Donbas, where he observed the realities of daily life in the city today and details the death and violence to which Donetsk and its people have been subjected for the past 9 years, since the unconstitutional US backed coup of 2014, by far-right elements of the Ukraine military, orchestrated by Ukraine. He questions the current narrative of the now compliant western media and its apparent desire to push the West ever closer towards a cataclysmic war with Russia in which there will be no winners.
________________________

Once a Pittsburgh sister city also known for its steel industry, Donetsk, and the greater Donbas region in which it is located, has been at war since 2014. According to the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, 14,000 people died in this conflict, even before Russia began its military operations in February. I’ve just returned from there.

Before Russia’s intervention, the conflict had been between the people of that region and the government in Kiev, after an unconstitutional coup took 2014. This coup, known as “Maidan,” was — as then US Ambassador to Ukraine Victoria Nuland explained in a recorded telephone conversation — managed by the United States.

The coup brought to power a pro-Western, anti-Russian, government, which contained elements which were far-right and even Nazi. The best known element, as the Nation Magazine reported in 2019, is the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion, which has been part of Ukraine’s National Guard since 2014. Its commander Andriy Biletsky once wrote that Ukraine’s mission is to “lead the White Races of the world in a final crusade…against the Semite-led Untermenschen.”

As The Nation explained, the Azov Battalion is not merely Nazi in theory, but also in practice. In present-day Ukraine, “there are neo-Nazi pogroms against the Roma, rampant attacks on feminists and LGBT groups, book bans, and state-sponsored glorification of Nazi collaborators.”

The American press wrote about this sporadically before this year. Now the press does backflips to obscure and deny this reality.

However, the people of Donetsk, who have lived this reality now for almost nine years, are very clear that all of this is real. Indeed, I met people in Donetsk (some quite elderly) who volunteered back in 2014 to defend their land and their people from the Kiev government’s aggression.

Much of the government views the predominantly ethnic Russian people of the Donbas as inferior beings whose language and culture, including the Russian Orthodox Church, should be eradicated. I actually traveled to Donestk in a vehicle laden with clothes destined for a Russian Orthodox monastery in Donetsk that is constantly being shelled by the Kiev government. These monks now live in underground rooms beneath the increasingly-destroyed monastery.

The people I met in Donetsk view their struggle as a fight against fascism. As one told me, there is a saying in Donetsk which goes, “First Stalingrad, now Stalino.” (Stalino was the former name of Donetsk.) Stalingrad, was where the Nazis were finally forced to retreat from Russia. The people of Donetsk are now dedicated to doing the same to the neo-Nazis in Ukraine.

And yes, despite how inconvenient to Americans it may be to accept this, they see Russia as their ally in this struggle.

While I was in Donetsk, the Kiev forces regularly shelled the area, firing over the frontlines to hit civilian targets in the city. Such targets included a school, the soccer arena and a building where residents come to gather fresh water, water being in short supply as the government in destroyed Donetsk’s water treatment facility some time ago.

Such shelling has been an integral part of life in Donetsk since 2014. You would not know this from the mainstream press coverage — the very worst and most dishonest coverage I have ever witnessed.

While the worst of the conflict came in the years 2014 and 2015, witnesses in Donetsk told me that the shelling from Kiev increased greatly in the days preceding the Russian intervention. On Feb. 22, 2022, just two days before the Russian intervention, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe reported 528 ceasefire violations, including 345 explosions, in Donetsk, and 1,182 ceasefire violations, including 1,075 explosions, in neighboring Luhansk.

Now, after the Russian intervention and after the referendum in September in which Donetsk residents voted to join the Russian Federation, the situation in Donetsk has actually improved. The streets are filled with cars, and people are going about their daily lives, including shopping and patronizing cafes and restaurants.

As I witnessed in Donetsk City and Mariupol, the Russian Federation helps with reconstruction. It has helped build huge housing projects and hospitals and restored damaged buildings.

With all of this said, I am not trying to convince the reader that the Russian intervention was justified, or that Russia’s own misdeeds should be excused. I am trying to push back against the cartoonish, Manichean view of the conflict being peddled by the US government and its compliant media — a view which is pushing us ever closer towards a cataclysmic war with Russia in which there will be no winners.

Another side of the story is not being told — a story about the forgotten people who have suffered under a regime backed to the hilt by the U.S., which acted in terrible ways and provoked the crisis. It is my hope that if this reality is taken into account, our leaders will work towards a negotiated settlement of the conflict rather than spending more billions of dollars on the hopes of a total victory which is neither possible nor desirable.


***
Daniel Kovalik teaches international human rights at the University of Pittsburgh School of Law and is the author of “The Plot to Scapegoat Russia.”

*****

https://newcoldwar.org/eastern-ukraine-had-good-reason-to-join-russia-after-kyivs-aggression/

[bsnub]

Dan Kovalik

A regular on Tucker Carlson's show. That says a lot about him right off. Just another bozo for your clown car. You are really rolling out an entire wagon of shit so far today.

[sabang]

How many times ya been to Donetsk recruit snubski? Ever been shelled, or anywhere near a combat zone? Ever been invited onto a televised talk show?

[bsnub]

How many times ya been to Donetsk recruit snubski? Ever been shelled, or anywhere near a combat zone? Ever been invited onto a televised talk show?

You are really rolling out an entire wagon of shit so far today.

Just another bozo for your clown car.

[NamPikToot]

We will see over the next few months who has been spouting nonsense and propaganda, recruit snubski. No point saying more at this point in time. Lets just say some of your comments are being preserved for posterity.


The Postil Magazine, fwiw, is a Christian publication- easily googled.

You actually believe the stats in that propaganda piece?

Also that despite multiple sources saying so the reservists that were deployed were ill equipped and received next to no training, most of them killed or wounded.

The Russians are focusing on infra as they know the cannot mobilize and afford to lose another batch.

[pickel]

We will see over the next few months who has been spouting nonsense and propaganda,

It will probably be the same as the last 8 months. Which means, of course, it is you.

[sabang]

Most of the reservists are still in training Mike- only about a third are in the war zone, front or second lines.

You actually believe the stats in that propaganda piece?

I view everyone's Pov with a liberal dose of salt. Stories that Russia casualties are cataclysmic, and far exceed those of Ukrainian however are clearly nonsense.

^ Time will indeed tell. However with Russia now occupying slightly less than 20% of Ukr, I don't know where you get this "it is you" from.

Simply put- No, Ukraine is not winning this war (OK, that's my Pov).

[Hugh Cow]

A pro Russian magazine that amongst other things exalts Dictator General Franco. Some of the claims from this magazine: 100,000 ukrainian soldiers dead. Russian army soldiers dead not including foreign fighters 8,000. Innumerable documented war crimes by UMf but aparently little by Russian forces due to their "strict military police" and many imbedded "pro western journalists" that can freely report and prevent this.
Of the 318,000 mobilised russians, 80,000 "intensely trained" new recruits are now on the front line now integrated into battle hardened units, whilst the rest are currently going through "intensive" military training.
As an aside he makes no explanation of why this professionally run Russian army needs Chechyn fighters and the Wagner groups help.
On the funnier side they are promoting a book on how Ivermectin could have ended the global pandemic.
Another of Sabangs' "impeccable" sources.

[sabang]

^ ???

Ukraine
Dead 124,000
Wounded 490,000
Missing 113,000
Civilian dead 8,900

Russia and militias
Dead 31,800
Wounded 163,670
Missing 4,301
Civilian dead 14,808

Recent statements from Pentagon sources estimated around 100k dead on both sides.

[bsnub]

Russia takes far higher casualty rates than the Ukrainians, and anyone who tries to say otherwise is a moron who lives in fantasy land. At this point of the war the Ukrainians are far better trained, equipped and have more experience. Causality rates are as high as 12 Russians for every one Ukrainian in Bakhmut, where Russia forces human waves of conscripts to rush the Ukrainian lines.

Russia is scrapping the bottom of the barrel and the tank is on empty. More humiliation is coming and as of today the last main Russian supply route into the south and Crimea may well have been cut as I posted above.

[harrybarracuda]

We will see over the next few months who has been spouting nonsense and propaganda, recruit snubski. No point saying more at this point in time.

Fantastic! No more propaganda shit from sabang!

[Troy]

Russia takes far higher casualty rates than the Ukrainians, and anyone who tries to say otherwise is a moron who lives in fantasy land.

Have you got figures to back this up or are you just being a moron?

[sabang]

Like any real moron, they do make it self evident. How can you be born so gullible?

[sabang]

Former Supreme Allied Commander of Nato and Four Star General Wesley Clark says Ukraine needs to negotiate, and is unlikely to win this war on the battlefield. You are outranked junior recruit.

[39TG]

I think he's wrong. Ukraine's allies can simply supply Ukraine with better and better weapons until the job is done. It's probably best to take some time to do this as it dials down both Russia's military capabilities and its economy. Given its numerous war crimes, I hope the Russian economy is really smashed.

[pickel]

If Ukraine wasn't winning the attrition war in Bakhmut, they would have pulled out long ago, as it is not that strategically important for them. It's Putins chef trying to make a name for himself at all costs.

[sabang]

General Wesley Clark described it as a 'meat grinder'- for the Ukrainians. Commie propaganda?