Ukraine war mega thread

[panama hat]

"Iraq", "Vietnam" . . . you've clearly run out of anything worthwhile to post, sabang

[pickel]

When was the last Vietnamese battle victory in the Vietnam war? The last major Taliban battle victory in Afghanistan? The last Iraqi army battlefield victory against the US invaders?

And no land was ceded to the invading army in those wars, and the invading army eventually left. It will be the same in this war.

[harrybarracuda]

And no land was ceded to the invading army in those wars, and the invading army eventually left. It will be the same in this war.

*Zing*

[david44]

There are no winners of war, only survivors and even they die inside from guilt. They only physically survive to warn us. To warn us that there is nothing more terrible than what they have done.

Profound comment.

Negotiations are always needed even talks about talks.

Perhaps the winter lull or a negotiated cease fire.

While exit ramp/landing zone for both sides and their red lines are different there are always battle field issues which as we saw in Kosovo, Korea can be very long and to some extent unresolved.

Folks still argue about Strongbow , the Alamo, loss of Sudetenland, Algeria or similar colonies where their families may have lived for generations.

However there are recent examples , Czechoslovakia and Sudan divorced with varying degrees of success, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq less so.

Peace and some reconciliation in societies as diverse as Ireland South Africa show what is possible, aided by impartial external brokers.

Ukraine side
After so much loss they will seek all territory lost recently and probably ever since 2014
They will seek large and immediate reparations
They will certainly demand NATO membership for security
They will need foreign aid to rebuild in excess of any seized Russian overseas assets which may be frozen by courts or take a very long time, if ever.

They will hope the young gifted will return to help rebuild, the longer it lasts the less chance. Young talented people who have acquired homes language skills, jobs , kids at school, maybe new foreign friends and partners may see a better future in Germany etc

Russian side

Aside from foreign goals of regime change Russia will seek a face saving end for Putin and allies, who may never face justice .
They will wish to keep all battle field gains to not lose territory liberty or face. Be good to see someone like Navalny elected and send the criminals for trial. I fear China will not want a NATO Russia, and is prepped to take Taiwan perhaps to relive pressure on Russia in exchange for rights in Siberia, Arctic and cheap minerals

They will want to retain Sea of Azov coastline and Sevasapol at all costs even another war.
They will want to retain at least Russian majority areas of Luhansk Oblast and likely all of Donetsk and a rebuilt viable Azov Sea ports , mainly to deny Ukraine the same.
A gradual lifting of all sanctions this is the "CARROT"

Not sure any German leader will follow Merkel's mis step of reliance on Russian fuels but cheap gas via the 2 Nord streams may be a win win, provided neither side rely too much on it.

Difficult thorny issues

1
Crimea
This is a must have for both, I can see no compromise, though whether EU USA UK etc will find a war to recover it is moot. The port of Sevastapol is key.

A radical solution may be an International non military zone like pre war Danzig or Gauntanamo an extra territorial zone, I bet EU or China would love it.

2 Return
Safe return of Refugees, Deportees /abductions, the dead and wounded with International monitors like OCSE, MSF, Red Cross given free access and strict conditions quid pro quo for sanctions this may be partially resolved though the injustices can never be undone.

3
War Crimes
The Hague courts will be busy for decades as documentation and video evidence exceeds examples like WW2 Nuremburg or more recent events like MH plane or Srebrenica.
The only winners are are dealers , bankers and China.

4
The Bill
Reparations will be very expensive and even if Putin vanquished jailed or dead the ability to repay needs to offset against reality lest it stoke up more future conflict. the French WW1 demands helped break a weak liberal Weimar and lead to the next conflict IMHO.

there are many other issues

Frontier control
De Mining
Radiation security
Return of migrants
Prisoner exchange
Sustainable debt
Power and services

One of the most tragic aspects of this is Ukraine yielded its nukes in 1990s a peaceful example to the world and how non proliferation may work.

Doubt any other nation will having seen Russia's agression and continued nuclear threats


An unlikely Dove in his dotage who understood central European Realpolitik better than I.

see nti.org

As someone who used to test radioactivity I was always a supporter of NTI

I have many differences with Kissinger and Nunn but the goal is sound

More here
Just a moment...

The potential damage to NPPs is such a threat to W Europe and Russia that IMHO a UN International force needs occupy and protect as an interim measure to ensure cooling integrity.

These plants need reliable power even when not generating, some have been reduced to diesel emergency generators this an unacceptably dangerous , insane development.

Peace and best wishes to all members let s be thankful we will not winter there and like so many wars the lucky ones are those who died swiftly and early, it is going to be a grim winter even if there is a cease fire today.

[Hugh Cow]

Its about time the ukrainians sent in a few saboteurs to Russia and destroyed a few power stations.

[Shutree]

Difficult thorny issues

Number one is surely Putin?

[david44]

Number one is surely Putin?

You may be right my list was not by priority.

However with Putin dead, jailed or retired Russia will keep maintaining its Foreign Policy of 3 centuries for warm water Ports

Sevastapol and all Crimea the Black Sea Riviera with no extradition will not easily be yielded by any Russian leader. It has only be Ukrainian for a few decades since 1954 I think.

If removing Putin was the only issue I'm sure a Chechen suicide assassin could have been promised 72 virgins .

His whole gang are equally in it up to their necks to shield their ill gotten gains, positions, families and so it'll be tough unless the allies plan to take Russia like Berlin in 1945.

Lavrov, Medvedev and many others are balls deep in the same crimes

[Shutree]

You may be right my list was not by priority.

However with Putin dead, jailed or retired Russia will keep maintaining its Foreign Policy of 3 centuries for warm water Ports

Sevastapol and all Crimea the Black Sea Riviera with no extradition will not easily be yielded by any Russian leader. It has only be Ukrainian for a few decades since 1954 I think.

If removing Putin was the only issue I'm sure a Chechen suicide assassin could have been promised 72 virgins .

His whole gang are equally in it up to their necks to shield their ill gotten gains, positions, families and so it'll be tough unless the allies plan to take Russia like Berlin in 1945.

Lavrov, Medvedev and many others are balls deep in the same crimes

Yes, this is Zelensky's problem, the reason why having it agreed that this war is 'finished' is on his five point plan. I wouldn't shed any tears if Putin was eliminated but it doesn't really fix everything, especially if the circumstances cast him as a martyr. What we really need is a result that allows the Russian people openly to despise him and his cronies for leading their nation to pariah status.

[david44]

Yes, this is Zelensky's problem, the reason why having it agreed that this war is 'finished' is on his five point plan. I wouldn't shed any tears if Putin was eliminated but it doesn't really fix everything, especially if the circumstances cast him as a martyr. What we really need is a result that allows the Russian people openly to despise him and his cronies for leading their nation to pariah status.

Agreed

[panama hat]

And no land was ceded to the invading army in those wars, and the invading army eventually left. It will be the same in this war.

This will fly over our totalitarian dictator-loving friends and won't be addressed as it is much easier to cnp than to argue a salient point

[Takeovers]

The deluded basement dweller is convinced Ukraine is winning, 12 Million people have left Ukraine, their cities and infrastructure being pummelled into rubble, millions without power or water, tens of thousands of Ukranians dead - If this is winning I would hate to contemplate what losing looks like.

It is harsh on the people of Ukraine. But it shows, that Russia is no longer even trying to defeat Ukraine militarily, because they can't, they are losing. They are purely using terror strategy, which has historically been proven to not work. The resolve of the Ukrainian people is stronger than ever, because they know, defeat is worse, much worse.

[bsnub]

It is harsh on the people of Ukraine. But it shows, that Russia is no longer even trying to defeat Ukraine militarily, because they can't, they are losing. They are purely using terror strategy, which has historically been proven to not work. The resolve of the Ukrainian people is stronger than ever, because they know, defeat is worse, much worse.

Well said and spot on. Hard to imagine someone could make such an ill-informed and ignorant comment. A fitting reply indeed.

[bsnub]

The reality...

[Iceman123]

^
All the way from the front line in San Antonio, give it a rest you deluded fuckwit

[bsnub]

All the way from the front line in San Antonio, give it a rest you deluded fuckwit

You embarrassed yourself enough in a 24-hour period. Go lick Sabang's asshole you pathetic cretin.

It does not matter where he lives, you imbecile. He is speaking sound knowledge. I have a friend and coworker who lives in Austin, he is a Ukrainian veteran. Does that mean his comments should be discarded as well?

I have mentioned you apologist cretins to him, and he just laughs at how stupid idiots like you and Sabang are for swallowing Russian propaganda. Both of you lemmings are completely clueless.

[Iceman123]

You embarrassed yourself enough in a 24-hour period. Go lick Sabang's asshole you pathetic cretin.

It does not matter where he lives, you imbecile. He is speaking sound knowledge. I have a friend and coworker who lives in Austin, he is a Ukrainian veteran. Does that mean his comments should be discarded as well?

I have mentioned you apologist cretins to him, and he just laughs at how stupid idiots like you and Sabang are for swallowing Russian propaganda. Both of you lemmings are completely clueless.

Of course, I am extremely hurt that your fluffer colleague does not approve of my posts. Does he share the basement with you?

[harrybarracuda]

Of course, I am extremely hurt that your fluffer colleague does not approve of my posts. Does he share the basement with you?

It must be iceman's whining hour.

[OhOh]

A discussion of the political, military and donor countries civilians attitudes, between a Polish man and an ex western military Colonel.

Interview with Col. Douglas MacGregor of the US Army

[bsnub]

It must be iceman's whining hour.

He is looking like as big of a fool as he always has. Just another pathetic putin knob gobbler.

A discussion of the political, military and donor countries civilians attitudes, between a Polish man and an ex western military Colonel.

You moron, that clown is a Fox News shill. You idiots are clearly desperate.

[bsnub]

Author Max Brooks interviews retired General Wesley Clark. The general explains that Russia always intended to invade Ukraine. The interview totally destroys the propaganda narratives that Sabwang uses to falsely try and blame NATO and the west for the war. An excellent watch...

[Iceman123]

^

General Wesley Clark - yeah right you clueless buffoon


Gen. Wesley Clark joins the ranks of penny-stock pitchmen | The Seattle Times

Wesley Clark Goes From 4-Star General to Reality TV Punchline | WIRED

China Fraud Accusations: Wesley Clark'''s Ex-Firm Faces Questions - ABC News

[bsnub]

General Wesley Clark - yeah right you clueless buffoon

A bunch of total shit links from over ten years ago. What a laughable attempt to teardown a 4 star general. You putin knob gobblers are indeed desperate for some kind of win after so much losing.



You are completely clueless about what is going on in Ukraine. Fuck off back to the Wordle thread you pathetic dumb fuck.

[Iceman123]

You are completely clueless about what is going on in Ukraine.

As opposed to you who is just completely clueless.

[bsnub]

As opposed to you who is just completely clueless.

You are just butthurt because I have humiliated you several times in this thread when you make your usual stupid comments. To be clear, you contribute nothing to this thread at all. You just come in here to start shit fights. You have had a lot of your posts in here deleted, and for good reason. Because you are a whiny butthurt crybaby.

Comeback when you have something of value to say about the war in Ukraine.

[Iceman123]

^