Ukraine war mega thread

[sabang]

1-

Invaders thwart second attempt to evacuate civilians from Mariupol – Gerashchenko

So it's the Russian invaders fault, according to this headline- although of course both sides are actually blaming each other. Anyone smell a rat yet?

2-

the fighters of the special forces unit of the National Guard of Ukraine, the police and other units informed citizens about the danger of such road corridors.

In other words, warned them. Who are these 'fighters of the special forces unit...'? That is the infamous Azov Battalion. 'nuff said. Nice guys.

3-
Who benefits from keeping civilians (y'know, human shields) cooped up in an urban area under assault- the attackers, or the defenders? Especially paramilitary defenders (aka 'freedom fighters', 'terrorists', 'partisans' etc) using assymetric warfare, as opposed to regular military.

Over to the TD CSI. I'm calling bullshit on this one. By any measure, the fall of Mariupol is essential to Putins plans (whatever they may be!). It's gonna happen.

[sabang]

There Are Many Things Worse Than American Power

Oh, the timing- I mean who would have ever guessed it! I'll refrain from the obvious comments.

[misskit]

^ Posted just for you.

[Norton]

How well I recall the enthusiasm all my shipmates and my good self had back in 1964 when I started my 1st combat tour in Vietnam. We all knew with the overwhelming superiority of our forces that those pesky commies would give up in a few months. Jump forward to 1974 in my 4th combat tour and it was clear those commies lead by Uncle Ho not only would not give up but continue to send us home in body bags. In 1975 our political leaders finally got the message as well. Declared no mas after 50,000 body bags made the trip from Vietnam back to the US.

Of all people Vlad already should know he fucked up big time and soon he and his war of liberation will lose. Like Russia did arming North Vietnam, Vlad faces the same in the Ukraine with the west arming a nation who are not going to roll over by any means.

Your done Vlad. Still time to save yourself. Pull out now and build a nice war memorial for your fallen heroes like that neat wall in DC.

[Backspin]

MOD posted that hours ago

Here we go. These institutes just have small experimental reactors. Hopefully the bastards didn't do too much to rig it

Russian forces ‘fire rockets at physics institute in Kharkiv with nuclear reactor inside’ | The Independent

[Backspin]

Brent crude oil price $130

[misskit]

Putin could LOSE his Ukraine war: Russian forces are 'decimated' says top UK general as invaders resort to shelling evacuating civilians and killing fleeing families

Vladimir Putin's 'decimated' forces could lose the war in Ukraine, the UK's top military commander has suggested.


Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said Russia's troops were 'in a mess' and the invasion was 'not going well'.


His comments yesterday represent the most optimistic assessment yet of how the conflict may end – but came on another bleak day, with Russian forces firing on families as they fled the fighting.

When the invasion began less than a fortnight ago it was assumed to be inevitable that Russian tanks would roll into Kyiv within hours. But after a series of strategic blunders and the remarkable resistance of Ukrainian troops on the battlefield, the outcome of the campaign could now be in doubt.


Sir Tony, the former head of the Royal Navy, who was appointed Chief of the Defence Staff late last year, was speaking after eight Russian aircraft were shot down in 24 hours.


The Russians, contrary to their military doctrine, have also been forced to admit that almost 500 of their soldiers have been killed.


And in a highly embarrassing example of ineptitude, a convoy of hundreds of Russian vehicles and an estimated 15,000 troops has ground to a halt.


The column, including tanks, missile batteries and armoured personnel carriers, had been earmarked by Putin to encircle Kyiv and pound the Ukrainians into submission.


But this operation is considered at least a month behind schedule, according to UK military sources. Given the unified approach to sanctions that the UK, US and other world powers have displayed, the Kremlin chief may not be able to sustain a military campaign for that long.


Asked on the BBC yesterday whether Russia taking over Ukraine was 'inevitable', Sir Tony said: 'No. I think we've seen a Russian invasion that is not going well.


'I think we're also seeing remarkable resistance by Ukraine, both its armed forces and its people and we're seeing the unity of the whole globe coming together, applying pressure to Russia.


'Russia is suffering, Russia is an isolated power. It is less powerful than it was ten days ago. Some of the lead elements of Russian forces have been decimated by the Ukrainian response.


'You've also seen basic failures in terms of maintenance and their kit failing. Russia hasn't operated at this scale since the Second World War and it is incredibly complex and difficult.'

Russian forces are 'decimated' says top UK general | Daily Mail Online

[misskit]

Russia has lost 1,000 troops-a-day to ferocious Ukrainians in big blow to Putin


Official numbers released by the Ukrainian government show that Russia has lost 11,000 soldiers so far in the war as Putin's forces struggle against motivated opponents

Russian forces have lost 1,000 troops a-day to a ferocious defence from Ukrainian troops and defiant citizen warriors, according to official Ukrainian numbers.


The loss of 11,000 soldiers, sailors and airmen by day 11 of the invasion has been a massive blow to Moscow, which is now calling up reserves.


Defence experts usually calculate invading commanders usually need an advantage in numbers of around three to one to attack a defending force.


In house to house combat in inner cities, which is what Moscow is attempting, this calculation can be as many as four to one needed.


It is estimated that Russia began the invasion with around 230,000 troops, in Belarus to the north, on the eastern flank and offshore in the Black Sea.

That is only a few thousand more than Ukraine ’s entire armed forces, it is believed, but the defenders were better-trained.


And by adopting a full-on assault offensive on towns and cities that are well defending by a well-motivated force the Russian troops are now mired in urban combat.


They lost the initiative and momentum quickly by allowing supply lines to get cut off and also by being flanked by Ukraine’s troops and militia.


In addition they under-estimated Ukraine’s air defences which have remained well-hidden and efficient, bringing down a staggering 44 warplanes.


The air defences and missile teams have also shot down 48 attack and troop carrier helicopters in less than two weeks of fighting.

The Mirror understand these Ukrainian estimates of the toll on Russia’s armed forces may even be conservative numbers.


One headline loss is also the amount of armour taken out by Ukraine’s anti-tank teams, in particular using UK supplied NLAW weapons, destroying 285 tanks.


As well as this 447 vehicles have been blown up or disabled by an unrelenting defence from Ukraine’s armed forces and militia.


Almost 1,000 armoured vehicles have been destroyed and 109 artillery systems have been wiped out in Ukrainian attacks.


On Saturday alone Russia lost four helicopters, five warplanes and one unmanned drone, testimony to western-supplied weaponry given to Ukraine’s forces.


Two of Moscow’s warships, bristling with weapons, have also been disabled or destroyed in attacks by the defenders.

Many hundreds of Russian troops have been captured, treated if they are wounded and have even been filmed denouncing the invasion as wrong.


Some of those found abandoned by their comrades or left behind in attacks had run out of food days ago and were hungry and thirsty.


In one shock video some were found to have been given tinned rations that were six years past their sell-by date.


And some vehicle crews were captured after simply running out of petrol as the logistics chain of the invasion broke down because of Ukraine’s defences.


At a press conference in Kyiv on Saturday, captured Russian troops condemned the mission and called on their fellow citizens to rally against the conflict.


Andrey Chuvatarevsky, a soldier who served on a contract basis in the Moscow region, said: "Russians, do everything possible to stop this war.

Russia has lost 1,000 troops-a-day to ferocious Ukrainians in big blow to Putin - World News - Mirror Online

[bsnub]

Here we go. These institutes just have small experimental reactors. Hopefully the bastards didn't do too much to rig it

Once again proving to be a bottom feeding lowlife.

[Bonecollector]

I reckon the Ukrainians are trying to use this ceasefire corridor to get some of their men of Mariupol, resupply and as many civilians as they can.

I assume they will take the majority of their force out of there and just leave a crack team well supplied and trained in urban gorilla warfare. They will then probably full back to a new defensive line which they have been digging in. A line which has a clear line of supply to the Polish border.

Putin has really fucked up; long term he is done.

Ban Russian oil now and open up all the nuke power stations instead. Like someone just stated, it is also beyond me why we turned our backs on Nuclear power until we have enough renewable energy. It is a bit like Gordon Brown selling our gold to Chinese at the lowest rate. Politicians should never laugh at Homer Simpson again.

[Switch]

Brent crude oil price $130

Instead of parroting the weak propaganda of a Russian bot, why don’t you try reading the negative posts about Putins failing war?

Oh, that’s right, you’re just a feeble uneducated child who can’t read without pictures.

Did you know that what’s left of the Duma are taking early retirement to avoid responsibility for Putin’s War?

[David48atTD]

This really is a special operation and not a typical invasion. Russia does not want to kill their Ukrainian brothers. They go into an area and negotiate. And when Ukrainian units don't want to negotiate , something suddenly appears out of the clouds and they all die.

... and that's OK?

I'm genuinely amazed and disappointed that you could pen that.

You need and should seek help ... seriously.

[Iceman123]

Backspin is young, he has not had enough life experience to make a valued judgement on Putin's agenda.
As so many millennials he thinks he has the answers which are invariably simplistic and not well thought out.

He is terrified of a nuclear war and is prepared to solve the problem by appeasement. This would not solve the problem long-term, but merely embolden a bully who thinks he has found a soft underbelly.

However he is entitled to his opinion, even as wrong as most of us see it.

We have to remember that in 20 years his generation will be responsible for the big Geopolitical calls. Education rather than name calling may just be a better answer to the Backspin dilemma.

[panama hat]

The U.S. remains in discussions with Poland

They need to stop talking and start 'shipping'.

Any Polymaths on TD who could go with him?

There is only one true polymath here . . . and he's a fighter, swims very long distances, climbs mountains, is a master pollit-bowl-thrower, can intimidate Asian females from four inches . . .





There is only one . . .

[panama hat]

Ah, but there are millennials and then there is Backspit . . .

[baldrick]

Backspin is young, he has not had enough life experience to make a valued judgement on Putin's agenda

backspits judgement is that pootin is a "chad" and he hankers to have his bum punched

he should look up where pootins girlfriend and kids are domiciled

[thailazer]

"
Russia has lost 1,000 troops-a-day to ferocious Ukrainians in big blow to Putin - World News - Mirror Online
"

Hence all the news black-outs in Russia. Putin still has a good approval rating in country from what I am hearing on the news. Might change as life gets tougher, but Russians are used to strife, at least the aging ones.....

[mackayae]

I wonder what Kadyrov has in mind since his troops were betrayed by the FSB.

[baldrick]

Might change as life gets tougher

strikes are happening at factories as the rouble is so far down and the workers are not getitng paid

[Shutree]

it is also beyond me why we turned our backs on Nuclear power until we have enough renewable energy.

People and politicians have long been nervous about nuclear and mishaps have only added to the concerns.
Some years ago there was a letter to The Times from an Emeritus Professor at Cambridge asking whether or not the politicians realised that with lunatics in charge of the asylum it was only a matter of time before the UK started turning off the lights.
Nuclear does have its own challenges, still I am a supporter because the alternatives haven't yet arrived and they too might have problems that haven't yet surfaced.

[Bonecollector]

strikes are happening at factories as the rouble is so far down and the workers are not getitng paid

I am begging to think this is the whole plan to remove Putin. You couldn't remove him politically, you couldn't move him militarily so lets remove him socially.

Goad him into a war with fake intelligence, sanction him for his actions and probably quite a lot of false flag stuff going on, watch him be taken down by his own people because of the economic outcome. Pretty crafty if you ask me.

[Bonecollector]

People and politicians have long been nervous about nuclear and mishaps have only added to the concerns.
Some years ago there was a letter to The Times from an Emeritus Professor at Cambridge asking whether or not the politicians realised that with lunatics in charge of the asylum it was only a matter of time before the UK started turning off the lights.
Nuclear does have its own challenges, still I am a supporter because the alternatives haven't yet arrived and they too might have problems that haven't yet surfaced.

Indeed. I just think you have to run them with multiple fail-safe's and the type of restriction you see with our nuclear arms. I have read that Zaporizhzhia has a massive concrete encasement around it's core as well as other such fail-safe's.

[sabang]

Oh dear, it's an-


Unpopular Opinion: NATO is Responsible for the Conflict in Ukraine



When news broke, “Putin is Invading Ukraine,” my initial reaction was that the international community must band together against Russian aggression. I also questioned whether the US and NATO should have taken a harder line with Russia. Or if the United States could have upheld its agreement to protect Ukraine against the threat or use of force under the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances signed in 1994. They did not because, as Obama said, Ukraine is not a core interest to the United States like it is for Moscow, and “we have to be very clear about what our core interests are and what we are willing to go to war for.”
Like most things in life, it often isn’t black or white; especially when it comes to politics, it’s almost always grey. After reflecting over the last few days on the context in which the conflict arose. I can only conclude that NATO and its allies are responsible for the current conflict in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian people are defending their own country, rightfully so. And Russia is protecting its strategic core interest and national security, as any country would. To understand this better, let’s take a moment to look at it from Russia’s perspective.

Ukraine is Russia’s Monroe Doctrine

What Putin ultimately wants is a halt to NATO / EU expansion in eastern Europe, which includes:

• Halt to the eastward expansion of NATO / EU membership, the signing of defense treaties & political meddling of its neighboring states.
• Stop to the routine military exercises and deployment of missile defense systems & WMDs by its borders.
• End to the funding and support of anti-Russian neo-Nazi extremist

To Russia, the issue on Ukraine is of national security and core strategic interest, or by definition, “The bottom line… what a nation wants and what its citizens are willing to go to war over and to die for.”
Here’s what the current Director of the CIA, William Burns, had to say about Ukraine and NATO back in 2008.
“Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all red lines for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin’s sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.”
He also goes on to say that It’s “hard to overstate the strategic consequences” of offering Ukraine NATO membership, predicting that it would “create a fertile soil for Russian meddling in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.”
How Russia feels about NATO expansion isn’t a secret; Putin has explicitly expressed his views on more than one occasion. While the public may largely be unaware, it’s well understood in Washington.


Here’s a map of NATO expansion from 1998 to 2022; NATO has moved practically to Russia’s borders.
[IMG]https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/1*5q5aexF3F8EzgBz99lFtQA.png[/IMG]

NATO’s incremental expansion of NATO / EU membership eastward, routine military exercises, and deployment of missile weapons systems by Russia’s borders are undeniably provocative and hostile from the Russian perspective.
Putin & the Kremlin see the incremental encroachment of Russia’s national security and strategic interest simply unacceptable, and Ukraine is where they draw the line. Pressure within the Kremlin has also mounted for Putin to act and defend Russia’s interest.

Review of NATO’s Actions

If peace and stability in Europe were the objectives, the pragmatic approach is to explicitly state that Ukraine will not be a part of NATO / EU and allow for Ukraine to be a neutral state. In other words, a neutral buffer zone between NATO and Russia. Professor John Mearsheimer, who predicted the Ukrainian predicament today in 2015, has advocated for an economically strong but neutral Ukraine approach.

Instead, what NATO has done over the past decade is string Ukraine along with the hope of joining NATO / EU. Provided Ukrainians with military weapons. Trained and supported anti-Russia extremists in Ukraine that have shelled a predominately Russian population in eastern Ukraine for the last eight years. Last month, Biden’s Secretary of State Anthony Blinken again stated that NATO membership was open to Ukraine.

NATO’s approach thus far has made little sense if peace was the objective. Assuming good intentions, it’s bad policy that views geopolitics from a narrow, one-dimensional perspective.
Despite this, some argue from an ideological point of view that Ukraine has the right to choose who it wants to align itself with as a sovereign nation. And NATO / EU has the right to allow whoever it wants to be part of its alliance. (Putting aside political meddling considerations. AKA the current government resulted from a takeover supported by the West to overthrow the previously corrupt and elected pro-Russian government). Essentially, the argument boils down to the “right of a nation to choose” trumps other considerations.
To that end, I would ask how we expect the United States to react if Russia/China built a missile system in Cuba or Venezuela and talked about forming a security defense alliance. Or if Mexico harbored and trained ISIS. It’s happened before in the 1960s, the “Cuban Missile Crisis.” And if you recall, we responded by threatening nuclear war. In those circumstances, there’s no question the United States would invade with the use of force, a self-sovereign nation or not. And Cuban/ Venezuelan citizens will die defending their country against the US invaders
But will the world rally against the United States and stand up for Cuba’s freedom to choose, like Ukraine? I think it unlikely. Then the question we should ask is why because it feels awfully hypocritical.
But I digress because the focus of this post isn’t about ideological beliefs of right and wrong. It’s about a pragmatic approach to peace and stability in Europe.

Where to go from here?

The immediate goal should be to de-escalate the situation while providing humanitarian aid to Ukrainian civilians. Resuming talks to settle the conflict diplomatically with concessions should be the utmost priority. Escalating the situation is extremely dangerous because Russia has few options but to raise the Ante. And as the saying goes, “Corner a dog in a dead-end street, and it will turn and bite.”
A policy approach that looks to create a neutral Ukraine will go a long way in maintaining peace and stability in Europe. Ukraine should also disassociate and purge neo-Nazis from its government. And an effort to normalize relationships with Russia, understanding that it will take time, is also strategically prudent for the West.
Unlike China, Russia is economically weak and a declining superpower. They have nukes and oil, but not much else. There is little reason for the West not to pursue a more cooperative posture. It isn’t the cold war anymore. The primary cause of the hostility between NATO & Russia is rooted in mistrust rather than conflicting core interests.
But a pragmatic and logical approach to foreign policy will take political courage. Because sadly, American politics and policy is often driven by opinion polls rather than sense. And Russia isn’t very popular these days.

Unpopular Opinion: NATO is Responsible for the Conflict in Ukraine | by Animus Perspective | Mar, 2022 | Medium

[bsnub]

You really are a broken record. After your massive humiliation where you were proven wrong by claiming Russia would never invade and all the western governments were liars, you would think you could give the repetitive dribble a rest. But oh no, you have to double down on the idiocy.

[baldrick]

To Russia, the issue on Ukraine is of national security

no it is fcuking not - the issue is people getting the idea that they have a say in the running of the state