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Russia's military is out of its depth in Ukraine. Was Putin kept in the dark about its weaknesses?
In March 2017, Commander of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov wrote an article about how the Russian military was being transformed so they could fight "war in modern conditions".
The article provided an update on his now seminal 2013 article on modern warfare, which many in the West mischaracterised as the "Gerasimov Doctrine".
Perhaps the most interesting part of his 2017 article — and ironic for the Russian military forces — is this passage:
"It must be remembered that victory is always achieved not only by the material, but also by the spiritual resources of the people, by their unity and desire to oppose aggression with all their might."
Was Putin kept in the dark?
Like recent revelations about falsified intelligence on Ukraine, the President of Russia was probably kept in the dark about deficiencies in the Russian military.
If Putin had invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the military over the previous decade, who was going to tell him it wasn't working?
Underinvesting in ground forces
A second problem may be that the Russians got the balance of investment in different military services wrong.
US scholar Michael Kofman has written that the overall focus of Russian military development from 2008 to 2014 "was to counter Western advantages in air power … To this end, much of the investment initially did not go towards Russian ground forces".
Getting the balance of investment in land, air, maritime, cyber and information domains wrong can have catastrophic consequences.
Learning the wrong lessons
A final insight from Russian military transformation is learning the right lessons from operations.
Gerasimov made much of the lessons from Syria. He has described how Russia had acquired "priceless combat experience in Syria".
Despite this emphasis on Syria, the Russians appear to have taken away many wrong lessons.
The war in Syria was an intervention at the invitation of a host government to suppress the population.
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About the Author ...
Mick Ryan is a strategist and recently retired Australian Army major general. He served in East Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan, and as a strategist on the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff. His first book, War Transformed, is about 21st-century warfare.