Thread: How dangerous is Vladimir Putin?

Originally Posted by Exit Strategy

Originally Posted by Hawker

o you think this uni polar Anglo axis is healthy ? How so ? Are you a seppo

Modern world, standard of living and opportunities we enjoy today are result of Anglosphere developing, even forcing, democracy and free market economy to all parts of the world. I can see someone would think it would be nice to live in the cave again, but they would not actually think that if they experienced that. You are enjoying your internet, are you not?

You are aware that innovation and technology has nothing to do with government right ? The industrial revolution happened when the US barely had a Federal government or military. The government has to get out of the way.

Originally Posted by Hawker

Russia is self suffiient. They supply they own food and energy. They are a creditor nation with a trade surplus. The US is a debtor nation with a trade deficit. End of discussion

You clearly have no idea what you are talking about. Russia has a national debt of $200 billion and has a shrinking GDP. Since they got involved in Ukraine more than $100 billion in capital has left the country.

Also, why are you trying to compare the economies of the two countries as that is a ridiculous comparison. The US has a GDP of $16.2 trillion compared to Russia at $2 trillion.

Originally Posted by bsnub

Originally Posted by Hawker

Russia is self suffiient. They supply they own food and energy. They are a creditor nation with a trade surplus. The US is a debtor nation with a trade deficit. End of discussion

You clearly have no idea what you are talking about. Russia has a national debt of $200 billion and has a shrinking GDP. Since they got involved in Ukraine more than $100 billion in capital has left the country.

Also, why are you trying to compare the economies of the two countries as that is a ridiculous comparison. The US has a GDP of $16.2 trillion compared to Russia at $2 trillion.

I don't recognize the GDP calculations in the US because it makes no sense to do so. 70% of their economy is consumption. And we can see that in their 50 billion per month TRADE deficit (this is completely separate from the government deficit/debt) The US does not pay for thing by borrowing money at interest. They pay for things by printing the dollar and keeping it strong at gunpoint.

Economies are based on production. Extorting goods from the rest of the world and then consuming them, to the tune of 50 billion per month, is not what I call GDP. Interest on credit card debt is even calculated into the USs GDP.

If a country has any long term net trade deficit at all, then it is on net, consuming and not producing. Russia produces. China produces. Germany produces. Japan produces. So don't even utter GDP until the US is a producer.

Originally Posted by bsnub

$16.2 trillion

and a debt of $17.5 trillion. One of the first rules of business, snubby, it's not the money you take, its the profit you make. Champagne tastes with tap water money, ultimately.

Originally Posted by Hawker

is not what I call GDP

Indeed - it's funny how the definition changes, conveniently.

Originally Posted by bsnub

highest rates of graft and corruption in the world

surpassed by the USA, UK, EU though, if you are actually honest about it. Although the most obvious forms of graft in the USA are actually legal there...

Originally Posted by pseudolus

Although the most obvious forms of graft in the USA are actually legal there...

Yes but that is another thread isn't it?

Originally Posted by Hawker

China and Russia have way lower taxes and regulation on business then the axis powers.

My wife is Chinese this is utter BS! The Chinese own nothing, not even their expensive houses let alone the shacks. They're leased by the government at the will of the government which can be terminated at any point. We know because it's what we're currently building our business on here in the states, they are purchasing houses and property all around the world at record pace but especially here in the states and the US government is loving it. They put up an offer of a residents visa's for a $500,000 thousand investment into a business and guarantee of hiring 10 employees and they've met the visa goal every year since it was enacted about 3 years ago, the visas are limited to 10,000 annually and as of last month they already have over 8500 approved with another 3,000 in queue so they'll achieve it well early..

Originally Posted by bsnub

Yes but that is another thread isn't it?

Yes and no. This thread is asking how dangerous Putin is, so is it not reasonable to say that yes, he is a nutter, but at the same time the danger he represents to the world pales into insignificance when compared to the US and UK? If country's financials are valid, then what happens to that money is valid as well? You brought graft and corruption into the mix, using it to slam the ruskys, so to counter that with, incidentally something you agree with, that the graft and corruption from the US and UK is worse, and mostly legal inside their countries...surely that is fair game, no?

Delete it if you like, Mod Snubbster, but it is valid.

BTW it's nonsensical to say the US doesn't produce anything, there is too much to list on what is produced, but suffice it to say it's far more then you understand. Of course much less heavy industrial due mostly to heavy regulation and labor unions squelching the profitability but it's been coming back now for some number of years. And many without the unions and the employees are quite happy not to have them, but the threat of their existence serves it's purpose..

^ indeed.

Originally Posted by pseudolus

Mod Snubbster

That's news to me!!

Originally Posted by FloridaBorn

Of course much less heavy industrial due mostly to heavy regulation and labor unions squelching the profitability

That is not the reason for much of the industry leaving the country. But you like pushing those right wing talking points.

The strong recovery of U.S. manufacturing output in the aftermath of the Great Recession
has spurred renewed interest in this sector among analysts and policymakers alike. Although
it has seen its relative weight in U.S. GDP and employment decline over time, manufacturing
remains an important part of the U.S. economy, accounting for about three fourths of private
R&D investment, more than half of export earnings, and most of the high-wage blue-collar
jobs (McKinsey Global Institute, 2012).
2

Many commentators have argued that a number of favorable conditions could support
continued steady increases in U.S. manufacturing output and employment in the years ahead, beyond those that could be attributed to a cyclical rebound to the pre-recession trend.

These conditions include a more depreciated exchange rate, lower domestic energy prices, higher demand from booming shale oil and gas activity, volatile international shipping costs, and significant increases in labor costs in emerging markets. Skeptics argue that manufacturing production is merely rebounding to its pre-crisis level after a sharp cyclical drop and highlight that it is difficult to find prior examples of a significant reversal of the relative weight of manufacturing in advanced economies.
3 The GDP share of manufacturing indeed declined steadily in the developed world over several decades prior to the Great Recession—although it has stabilized in the United States since then.

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2014/wp1428.pdf

After experiencing a steady loss in its relative importance in the last three decades, including through recession episodes, U.S. manufacturing output has rebounded strongly from the Great Recession of 2008-09 (Figure 1). The Great Recession was in fact the first U.S. recession since the early 1980s to be followed by a significant recovery in the share of manufacturing value added in total U.S. GDP.








Frig, can't get the graph to post, maybe some one better at that then me can work it out from the link.

Originally Posted by FloridaBorn

Of course much less heavy industrial due mostly to heavy regulation and labor unions squelching the profitability

Originally Posted by bsnub

That is not the reason for much of the industry leaving the country. But you like pushing those right wing talking points.

Oh FFS, even when someone is mostly agreeing with you you have to swerve into oncoming traffic and commit suicide ..

It is a major part of the reason and it's undeniable regardless of how you want to spin it. jobs went over seas due to those issues driving up manufacturing costs making it nearly impossible to compete, both sides tend to agree on that point regardless of your singular, misguided protests.

Originally Posted by FloridaBorn

jobs went over seas

.... let us not forget that these jobs are often moved over seas by the firms, for whom, the governments bend over backwards to please.

Originally Posted by bsnub

Originally Posted by Hawker

I don't recognize the GDP calculations in the US because it makes no sense to do so. 70% of their economy is consumption.

Wow. What are we talking tin foil hat economics? Consumption is calculated into every countries GDP in the world. The countries that you have mentioned also "consume" and have fairly high consumption rates. Your argument is flawed.


China 35%
Germany 58%
Japan 61%
Russia 48%

Household final consumption expenditure, etc. (% of GDP) | Data | Table

Time for a new argument eh?

BTW Russia doesn't not produce much other than natural gas and oil. Money is flying out of the country at record levels and they have one of the highest rates of graft and corruption in the world. Not exactly a place that corporations want to invest regardless of less tax or regulation.

Time for a new argument or time for you to take a course in basic economics. Yes ! All of those countries consume. But they PRODUCE more then they consume. Their consumption is mostly their own production. Russian companies are the foremost experts in nuclear technology and Russia also is the biggest exporter of uranium. Russia is also the leading rocket launch provider for satellites in the world while NASAs crap makes it way to museums.

Do you have any relevant points ?

Originally Posted by FloridaBorn

Originally Posted by Hawker

So you think that reserves of stored oil gives a country leverage ? Nobody cares how much strategic reserves a country has.

Of course it does, don't believe it? Research WWII & Nazi Germany, also applies today but of course you know other wise Anyways it's not my opinion, it's fact, put forth by people who are a lot more connected on the matter and strategy then either you or I.

Germany was producing synthetic fuels and oil from nat gas and coal. They were not just feeding off of some big tank of oil that wa already pulled out of the ground.

Germany did exactly what the US has been doing since 1970. Every time the Nazis would take over a country, they would peg that countries currency lower then theirs in order to funnel resources into Germany, creating a one way trade deficit which didn't stop till the last days of the war.

Originally Posted by FloridaBorn

Originally Posted by Hawker

China and Russia have way lower taxes and regulation on business then the axis powers.

My wife is Chinese this is utter BS! The Chinese own nothing, not even their expensive houses let alone the shacks. They're leased by the government at the will of the government which can be terminated at any point. We know because it's what we're currently building our business on here in the states, they are purchasing houses and property all around the world at record pace but especially here in the states and the US government is loving it. They put up an offer of a residents visa's for a $500,000 thousand investment into a business and guarantee of hiring 10 employees and they've met the visa goal every year since it was enacted about 3 years ago, the visas are limited to 10,000 annually and as of last month they already have over 8500 approved with another 3,000 in queue so they'll achieve it well early..

Give this a try. Don't pay your property taxes for a year or so in a western "democracy". See how that works out for you. Then you will really know who ownes your land.

I feel bad for your Chinese friends , who will come to the US with the thought that they will own something when all they are doing , is renting from the government after the mortgage is paid. I see property taxes going up all over the west. 3000 or 4000 usd a year is common. And if you don't pay, they will evict you at gunpoint , sell your property and garner your wages just in case the sale didn't cover the taxes.

Originally Posted by FloridaBorn

The strong recovery of U.S. manufacturing output in the aftermath of the Great Recession
has spurred renewed interest in this sector among analysts and policymakers alike. Although
it has seen its relative weight in U.S. GDP and employment decline over time, manufacturing
remains an important part of the U.S. economy, accounting for about three fourths of private
R&D investment, more than half of export earnings, and most of the high-wage blue-collar
jobs (McKinsey Global Institute, 2012).
2

Many commentators have argued that a number of favorable conditions could support
continued steady increases in U.S. manufacturing output and employment in the years ahead, beyond those that could be attributed to a cyclical rebound to the pre-recession trend.

These conditions include a more depreciated exchange rate, lower domestic energy prices, higher demand from booming shale oil and gas activity, volatile international shipping costs, and significant increases in labor costs in emerging markets. Skeptics argue that manufacturing production is merely rebounding to its pre-crisis level after a sharp cyclical drop and highlight that it is difficult to find prior examples of a significant reversal of the relative weight of manufacturing in advanced economies.
3 The GDP share of manufacturing indeed declined steadily in the developed world over several decades prior to the Great Recession—although it has stabilized in the United States since then.

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2014/wp1428.pdf

After experiencing a steady loss in its relative importance in the last three decades, including through recession episodes, U.S. manufacturing output has rebounded strongly from the Great Recession of 2008-09 (Figure 1). The Great Recession was in fact the first U.S. recession since the early 1980s to be followed by a significant recovery in the share of manufacturing value added in total U.S. GDP.








Frig, can't get the graph to post, maybe some one better at that then me can work it out from the link.

The first sentence in this crap says "policy makers" ! What is this? The USSR ? Nope it's the USSA. Command and control economy , run right into the ground.

Record food stamp useage

Record amounts of ppl leaving the workforce

50 billion per month Trade deficit still

Yeah that's progress from the Great Recession alright

Originally Posted by FloridaBorn

Originally Posted by FloridaBorn

Of course much less heavy industrial due mostly to heavy regulation and labor unions squelching the profitability

Originally Posted by bsnub

That is not the reason for much of the industry leaving the country. But you like pushing those right wing talking points.

Oh FFS, even when someone is mostly agreeing with you you have to swerve into oncoming traffic and commit suicide ..

It is a major part of the reason and it's undeniable regardless of how you want to spin it. jobs went over seas due to those issues driving up manufacturing costs making it nearly impossible to compete, both sides tend to agree on that point regardless of your singular, misguided protests.

It's the main reason. But people like to blame it on slave wages in China.

But that argument falls on it's face when you see that Germay and Japan have trade surpluses with China. Yet they have higher wages then the US !

Originally Posted by Hawker

I don't recognize the GDP calculations in the US because it makes no sense to do so

Great. Good base for serious discussion. 'European heritage' is strong, eh?

Originally Posted by Hawker

Their consumption is mostly their own production.

Originally Posted by Hawker

But they PRODUCE more then they consume.

You are clueless. You obviously don't pay attention. China is the only nation of those mentioned produces more than they consume and that is rapidly changing. Russia is about 50/50 but their economy is tanking and that is obvious. How long do you think its relatively small economy can sustain the rate of which capital is fleeing the country? The answer is simple. Not long.

Originally Posted by Hawker

Russia also is the biggest exporter of uranium.

Oh another raw material. But you are also wrong Russia is not even in the top five.

Originally Posted by Hawker

Russian companies are the foremost experts in nuclear technology

Yes we all remember Chernobyl. A reactor built by the foremost experts.

Originally Posted by pseudolus

One of the first rules of business, snubby, it's not the money you take, its the profit you make

Originally Posted by pseudolus

and a debt of $17.5 trillion. One of the first rules of business, snubby, it's not the money you take, its the profit you make.

And you failed 101 on macroeconomics too. I don't blame you, it is very complicated.

US is in very special position because of leading role of US currency.