Thread: Rubber trees 101

Originally Posted by piwanoi

is often inclined to take 70%

It's all a scam on the poor farmer regarding whatever crop. At the merchants you'll see a queue of lorries. the buying price is usually government set. One thing a farmer doesn't want is for a truck to be held up in a queue. He needs it back in the field where he has people waiting with the next load. To get a quick turn around of his truck at the merchant's he'll accept a lower price to get fast tracked to the front of the queue. This is why farmers here need to fcuk the merchants off and form co-operatives.

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

Originally Posted by piwanoi

is often inclined to take 70%

It's all a scam on the poor farmer regarding whatever crop. At the merchants you'll see a queue of lorries. the buying price is usually government set. One thing a farmer doesn't want is for a truck to be held up in a queue. He needs it back in the field where he has people waiting with the next load. To get a quick turn around of his truck at the merchant's he'll accept a lower price to get fast tracked to the front of the queue. This is why farmers here need to fcuk the merchants off and form co-operatives.

Yeah Pragmatic I concur with everything you write ,the way I see it these poor bastards are stuck between a rock and a hard place ,as you say the answer may be a Co op ,however as you noted before that's some what difficult with the total lack of trust within the Farming fraternity .

Concern over rubber supply as September output drops 25%
Falling global prices force farmers to move away from rubber production
George Joseph | Kochi October 15, 2014 Last Updated at 13:48 IST
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Both production and stocks of natural rubber have dropped during September, according to the latest data released by the Rubber Board, raising concerns about the availability of the commodity.

A 25 per cent fall in production of natural rubber, from 80,000 tonnes in September 2013 to 60,000 tonnes this year, was recorded. Stocks declines 10 per cent from 223,000 tonnes to 200,000 tonnes during the same period.

There was a continuous fall in the production of rubber beginning June, which posted the steepest monthly falls in recent times. This is a serious concern, according to experts, as the trend in production indicates a negative attitude of growers towards rubber plantations.

The fall in price, which accelerated in recent months, has forced farmers to withdraw from rubber production. As the local price was slashed to Rs 120 a kg, most of the small and medium farmers have now stopped tapping trees since the price is not at all lucrative.

"This is a serious situation, said N.Radhakrishnan, former president, Cochin Rubber MerchantsAssociation [CRMA]. "If the fall in production continues the local market will be in serious trouble. This will increase import to the country as industries have to use rubber."

"There is a standstill situation in rubber trading in Kerala as most industrial users withdraw from domestic market. So the fall in production makes the situation grave and not only plantations but rubber trading will also be in serious trouble," he said.

"The price should be at least Rs 170 a kg, then only can we continue with tapping," said Binu John, a Kottayam-based grower. He said that high labour charge is a serious issue in rubber tapping. Also aged trees have not not re-planted for the last few years because of the fall in prices.

According to experts the supply-demand gap is widening as the Board data says that consumption had increased 6 per cent during September. Monthly consumption in September was 85,500 tonnes compared to 80,550 tonnes in the same month a year ago.

This gap has been widening for the past few months and it is being compensated through bulk imports. The lower price regime in the overseas markets attracts more imports to India.

During the April-September period of the current financial year, 225,652 tonnes were brought, up from 181,700 tonnes in the same period of last FY, recording an increase of as much as 24 per cent.

More imports are likely to happen during the rest of the year, as overseas prices are more attractive currently. SMR grade is available for Rs 88 a Kg while in India the average price is Rs 120. So, even by remitting 20 per cent duty import imported rubber is much cheaper, hence the sharp increase.

24.36 baht per kg for cup at auction yesterday, Udon province. This is the 6th consecutive fortnightly auction where the price has stayed above the 24.00 mark. Just. Looks like any buyer/bidder who wants to win the auction has to bid over that figure even if it is 24.07 like 2 weeks ago.

Rs 120 (Rs 61.12/$1) or a little less than $2/kg., whereas 24.36/kg is about $.75 cents/kg...hows India able to sell at a profit against Thai rubber at the current quoted price?

If oil prices remai in the doldrums or continue to fall as they have done recently, the recovery in rubber prices will not happen.

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

24.36 baht per kg for cup at auction yesterday, Udon province. This is the 6th consecutive fortnightly auction where the price has stayed above the 24.00 mark. Just. Looks like any buyer/bidder who wants to win the auction has to bid over that figure even if it is 24.07 like 2 weeks ago.

0ne price is for cup, the other is for block, processed cup.
India is a net buyer of rubber, about 1 billion US worth imported a year, with a 20% import tax.
Locals can't make a living competing against imports, but no one else can continue to sell at a lose as well.
Demand for rubber is up and production is down, there will be a shortage of rubber next year, especially high grade RSS, no ones producing it.

Said before, this is 2008/9 GFC in slow motion, commodities, oil, iron, coal etc are all down, for many production costs are higher than the selling price.

The world didn't fix the debt problem in 2009 and it's coming back to bit us all.

New report price supports for Thai Rubber Farmers, maximum from government is 15,000 baht. Same as rice farmers support.
Ah, Let the good times roll.

Military Junta invokes Red Shirts programs while prosecuting them for the very same policies. Interesting...

I heard 1000 baht per rai being tapped.
Better than nothing?

^ Yes, true, but a maximum of 15,000 baht per farmer.

James I have a question for you: We have about 40 Rai of 5 year old rubber trees near Chonburi, do you think we should we take them out now and plant something else, or wait for some sort of market recovery and sell the trees and the land? I never intend to tap the trees myself or get into an arrangement with local tappers.
Also up near Chaiyaphum we have another 60 Rai of 2 year old trees. The wife uses some adjacent land for buying and selling sugar cane and she seems to be doing quite well out of it. I would take out the 2 year old trees and plant cane, but we had a rather expensive irrigation system installed last year after the drought knocked out 50% of the trees.

Originally Posted by Yangrot

do you think we should we take them out now and plant something else

First, check on whether there's any compensation due if you decide to remove your rubber trees. It may off set the costs of removing, if you decide to go down that road. Good luck.

Originally Posted by Yangrot

James I have a question for you: We have about 40 Rai of 5 year old rubber trees near Chonburi, do you think we should we take them out now and plant something else, or wait for some sort of market recovery and sell the trees and the land? I never intend to tap the trees myself or get into an arrangement with local tappers.
Also up near Chaiyaphum we have another 60 Rai of 2 year old trees. The wife uses some adjacent land for buying and selling sugar cane and she seems to be doing quite well out of it. I would take out the 2 year old trees and plant cane, but we had a rather expensive irrigation system installed last year after the drought knocked out 50% of the trees.

Don't know why you planted rubber if you never intended to tap them.
To sell or cut is the question, if the 5 year old trees have been taken care of, I'd keep them until rubber picks up again. Selling now you get land value, not tree and land value.
The 2 year old trees, if your not going into rubber as a long term thing, switch to something else. Jim

QUOTE]Don't know why you planted rubber if you never intended to tap them.
To sell or cut is the question, if the 5 year old trees have been taken care of, I'd keep them until rubber picks up again. Selling now you get land value, not tree and land value.
The 2 year old trees, if your not going into rubber as a long term thing, switch to something else. Jim[/QUOTE]

Seemed like a good idea at the time and wife's sister said she would arrange tappers. Since then we have been ripped off a couple of times on fertiliser and maintenance labour, so now we consider the best option is to sell when fully mature. They are nice looking trees and there's a small house in the plantation, with water and electric. The trouble is they're a 4 -5 drive away.
As the 2 year old trees are on our doorstep we can keep a better eye on what's being produced. It's just another option in the long term, but if somebody says with a degree of certainty there's no future in rubber then out they come and in goes the palm or sugar.

Yangrot, you can't farm here remotely, end of story, you've got to be there.
Extended family, worker/tappers will rob you blind if they can, just the Thai way.
It's an all or nothing thing, if you want to make it pay. Jim

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Yangrot, you can't farm here remotely, end of story, you've got to be there.
Extended family, worker/tappers will rob you blind if they can, just the Thai way.
It's an all or nothing thing, if you want to make it pay. Jim

+1. Managing a farm, running a business, building a house, You have to be there and run it. End of story. Be there and be successful, or not be there and it all turns to shit.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Extended family, worker/tappers will rob you blind if they can, just the Thai way.

I was going to say the same earlier but didn't really want to burst any bubbles.

Looks like prices have bottomed out, 3 days, Thurs, Friday and today, small upward movement, every satang counts.
Down another tapper for 15 days, yabba positive police test, 2 week in prison.
2nd time caught, would fire the guy, but no replacement about.
Jim

^You like having speed freaks working for you? Pretty dangerous guys historically.

Originally Posted by ltnt

^You like having speed freaks working for you? Pretty dangerous guys historically.

Most are users not addicts, just like long distance truck drivers, we drink coffee, red-bull, they pop a pill.
Once/if they become addicts, different story, when that happens village we throw them out.

Price up over a Baht today, that's 4 in a row, fingers cross it's a trend not a hiccup.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Price up over a Baht today, that's 4 in a row, fingers cross it's a trend not a hiccup.

Hope springs eternal, Jim....

Originally Posted by thaimeme

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Price up over a Baht today, that's 4 in a row, fingers cross it's a trend not a hiccup.

Hope springs eternal, Jim....

Yeah for sure, hear hear

25.72 baht per kg, cup at auction yesterday, Udon province. Prices may have hit rock bottom and may slowly reverse. Some better data coming out to, dollar/yen, and unusually low rubber stocks in Japan.

Things are getting better, very slowly, but a long way to go.
Indonesia is having problems filling long term contracts, so many planters have downed tools, that supply is running a week to a month behind delivery dates.

RSS has gone up 7 Baht in 2 weeks and as no ones making it round here, stocks will dry up and force prices up.
Needs to be 70 Baht up for me to start making sheet again, fingers crossed.