Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

A Ukrainian Patriot Missile Crew Shot Down Five Russian Aircraft In Two Minutes—And Possibly Forced The Kremlin To Rethink Its Tactics

On May 13, a Russian air force strike package took off at bases in western Russia and flew toward the border with Ukraine.

Minutes later, a single Ukrainian air force Patriot surface-to-air missile battery shot down at least four, and possibly five, of the fighters and helicopters in the package.

Eleven aviators died over Bryansk Oblast in what was one of the worst single-day losses for the Russian air force in the nearly 17 months of its wider war on Ukraine.

A video that the Ukrainian air force published on July 3 hints at some of the details of the missile ambush. For starters, the Patriot crew believes it shot down five Russian aircraft that day, not the four that Russian media have confirmed.

The strike package included, at a minimum, a Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber, a Sukhoi Su-35 fighter and two Mil Mi-8 helicopters, at least one of which reportedly was an Mi-8MTPR-1 model carrying Rychag-AV radar-jamming equipment. It’s possible the other Mi-8 was a dedicated search-and-rescue helicopter.

It seems the two crew aboard the Su-34 were flying at high altitude toward the Ukrainian border, aiming to lob at least one UPAB-1500V glide bomb at the city of Chernihiv in northern Ukraine. The single pilot aboard the Su-35 was protecting the Su-34 crew from Ukrainian interceptors.

The Russians just a few weeks earlier had begun using the 3,300-pound glide bomb—a crude analogue of the winged Joint Direct Attack Munition glide bomb that the United States has supplied to Ukraine—to target Ukrainian cities and military forces.

Launched from 40,000 feet, the glide bomb can travel around 25 miles—which, at it happens, is the distance from the Russia-Ukraine border to Chernihiv. Steady supplies of Western-made air-defense systems—Patriots, Iris-Ts and NASAMS, among others—had made it extremely dangerous for Russian warplanes to cross the border.

The UPAB-1500V helped to solve that problem by giving Russian fighter crews the striking range to conduct their attacks without crossing into Ukraine. Prior to this spring, just one Ukrainian SAM system, the S-300, had the range to threaten Russian planes flying on the Russian side of the border. And the Ukrainians were known to be running out of missiles for the Soviet-vintage S-300 batteries.



The arrival of Patriot batteries—from the United States, Germany and The Netherlands—changed all that. The PAC-2 variant of the Patriot that Ukraine operates can hit aircraft and missiles as far as a hundred miles away. A Patriot battery can remain safely on the Ukrainian side of the border and still intercept Russian glide-bombers before they drop their bombs.

The Patriot battery that shot down those four or five Russian aircraft on May 13 had just joined the fight. Dated kill markings that are visible in the Ukrainian air force’s video indicate the battery had shot down just three targets prior to May 13: a trio of ballistic missiles on May 11 or 12.

Exactly how the ambush played out is unclear. It’s possible the Patriot shot down the two Sukhois then waited as the Mi-8s flew in to search for survivors. The Ukrainians then shot down two or three of the helicopters.

But it’s worth noting that Fighterbomber, a popular Russian aviation channel on Telegram, claimed the shoot-downs happened in the span of just two minutes.

If true, that means the Mi-8s already were flying nearby when the two Sukhois went down—unless, of course, the Ukrainians targeted the helicopters first. It’s possible the Mi-8MTPR-1 was trying, and apparently failing, to jam Ukrainian air-defenses.

In any event, the Russians lost a lot of aircraft and crews, fast. Writing off at least one Mi-8MTPR-1 was particularly painful. The air force had just 20 of the radar-jamming ‘copters. It lost at least one more of them during the abortive rebellion by The Wagner Group mercenaries on June 23 and 24.

Whether the ambush compelled the Russian air force to change its tactics is difficult to determine. There’s ample evidence of recent glide-bomb attacks along the front line in southern Ukraine. There’s less evidence the glide-bombers still are striking in the north, where many of Ukraine’s best air-defenses are concentrated.

Instead, Russian forces continue to strike at Kyiv, Chernihiv and other northern cities with explosives-laden drones as well as with cruise missiles fired by strategic bombers from launch points hundreds of miles from the border.

But the Patriots are shooting down many of those drones and missiles, too. Kill markings on the Patriot system that shot down those four or five Russian aircraft on May 13 indicate the same battery destroyed more than a dozen cruise missiles and drones, plus a few ballistic missiles, in June.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=7887928d1a5b

Vatnik morons like skiddy have claimed there is no insurgency in the occupied territories.


This is a must read and will keep you on the edge of your seat...

Sidling through the door of the Russian military recruitment centre in occupied Donetsk, Dmitri was glad to have the summer sun to blame for the nervous sweat on the back of his neck.

He was barely old enough to vote, yet this was already the second time Dmitri would swear allegiance to a flag. His handler in Ukrainian military intelligence was waiting with bated breath to discover whether their ruse would dupe President Putin’s forces.

In spring last year he had signed up to the National Resistance, a battalion-strong group of Ukrainian partisans led by “Honta”, a reconnaissance company captain in the Azov regiment. Badly wounded in urban combat during his unit’s fierce defence of Mariupol, Honta had become stranded behind enemy lines but was kept alive by friendly locals who moved him covertly from house to house until he could recover.

Starting with that network of sympathetic civilians, Honta has been growing his partisan movement ever since. It is one of many across occupied Ukraine.

Today those men and women are fighting Ukraine’s counteroffensive from behind enemy lines: blowing up bridges, sabotaging supply vehicles, killing collaborators and locating targets for British Storm Shadow missiles fired by Ukrainian jet pilots. The less daring or less able play their role too: spraying graffiti threats to Russian troops, scattering tyre spikes across supply routes and whispering reports on their movements.

They are highly secretive and hunted relentlessly by the Russian security services, but together with Ukraine’s military intelligence, GUR, they agreed to tell The Times about their missions in the hope of recruiting more members before the main assault.

‘Now is the time for maximum effort’

“Helping our troops in the counteroffensive to get back our territories is our priority,” Honta said. “This is the right time for us to make maximum effort; we are trying to inflict maximum damage on the enemy to make life easier for the guys at the front.”

Some actions are months in the planning. A June 21 sabotage mission blasted a railway intersection deep in occupied Crimea, near the town of Feodosia, severing the peninsula’s rail link with Russia once more, after last year’s attack on the Kerch bridge.

“We prepared it for the counteroffensive,” Honta said, adding that it had taken three months to organise and was carried out just as Kyiv stepped up probing attacks by mechanised brigades on the front. “We want to harm the enemy as much as possible, to reduce some of their capabilities on the front line, disrupt logistics, break morale, give a sense of insecurity.”

Operation Dmitri has taken even longer. The Russian recruiters paid the young man from Donbas scant attention on that baking summer’s day last year. They asked a few questions about his short life to date, jotted down his particulars. He had no criminal background, no public record of any ideology. They handed him a form with instructions to report for duty before basic training, across the border in Rostov-on-Don. Just another Donbas boy for the meat grinder.

But Dmitri was different. After eight years of life under Russian occupation, the shift from hybrid war to full invasion offered him a chance to vent his frustrations with the Kremlin-backed mafia who controlled his town, stealing businesses and dismantling entire industries for sale back in Russia.

Beatings had been commonplace in parts of the Donbas controlled by separatists since 2014, but the invasion ushered in a new savagery, with widespread reports of rape, torture and dismemberment.

‘It’s an Indiana Jones story’

Using the Telegram encrypted messaging service, Dmitri responded to a Ukrainian call for partisans to fight the Russian invaders in the occupied territories. It would be dangerous, secretive work, without glory or payment beyond the odd cryptocurrency transfer for equipment. Anything else would give him away. Instructions, locations of weapons caches and video manuals on how to build explosives would be sent via Telegram. He would be alone.

“These people on occupied territories are taking unbelievable risks, but we cannot give them a medal, or a gift, or an official salary. They think now that they are alone,” said Khmel, a Ukrainian GUR intelligence officer involved in the operation. “After this interview they will understand that people in the West read about them, remember about them. They will understand that we have friends.”

Dmitri was vetted by the GUR and proved a capable operator, passing the entry-level tasks easily: writing graffiti and setting vehicles marked with the pro-war “Z” sign ablaze. He was soon blooded by “liquidating” a collaborating official. The National Resistance calling card features the old Azov regiment emblem: a stylised trident, the symbol of Ukraine, over a Cossack “Idea of Nation” symbol, a logo controversial for its similarity to the Wolfsangel used by ultranationalist groups. Russia has sought to use that symbol as evidence of Nazi ideology, causing the Azov regiment to ditch it last year in favour of a simple trident.

“His legend was good — he was a usual boy from Donbas with a job, without any pro-Ukrainian history or standout details in his biography — that’s why Honta asked him to join the Russian army,” Khmel said.

“He had two months solid training [with the Russians] in Rostov-on-Don, then the recruits were moved back to Donbas to a base where they would be assigned their different units. At this point they were one or two weeks away from fighting our guys. And they were in range of our Himars missiles.”

Dmitri messaged GUR that there were high-ranking officers, including colonels, on the base. The target was too great an opportunity to pass up, he said.

“He texted us and sent us co-ordinates, but the problem was he also had to be on station. So he sent us his own co-ordinates, he didn’t have a choice — he knew we would strike but he didn’t know when or where Himars will come. When the attack started, we lost contact with him,” Khmel said, shaking his head.

Yet Dmitri had survived. Three days later, he contacted the GUR from a Russian field hospital. He told them he had been hit, but would recover. Knowing the Himars would be coming, he sprinted away from the base as soon as the first missile slammed into it several weeks ago, vaporising his fellow recruits. The blast of one of the next missiles caught him, but he had put enough distance between himself and the impact zone to avoid being critically wounded.

“We had some tough conversations with Honta about this mission, we didn’t know when we selected him exactly how we would use him. But when he told us that he will be at this point, it was a huge chance. We think we got between 60-100 Russian soldiers there,” Khmel said, joking that Dmitri was a good soldier and would probably be promoted by the Russian army. There are other partisans busy infiltrating the Russian military which is desperate for recruits too, he said.

“It’s an Indiana Jones story. It’s about risk and adrenaline, and when you want to kill the enemy, grow in our network, you want to surprise yourself.”

Over the past month the counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces has already reclaimed some 50 square miles of the Zaporizhzhia region which the National Resistance operates in.

But a successful mission can have unforeseen consequences. On June 11, Honta’s men blew up a railway bridge outside the village of Yakymivka, en route to the logistical hub of Melitopol. The railroad was used to transfer anti-aircraft ammunition from Crimea to the Russian defensive lines in the region, and the Russians were furious.

“The Russians turned all the villages near by upside down looking for our people. It’s a different kind of risk from sending co-ordinates when you’re sitting between your new Russian comrades, but you have to work with explosives, then you have to film the result,” said Khmel. “All the people, and I mean all the people [there], were beaten by the Russians. That’s their usual practice.”

Yet on occupied territory, the partisans work ordinary jobs and move freely, passing through Russian checkpoints with ease. They have ways to hide their explosives but the most dangerous thing to carry is the National Resistance calling card they drop on the scene of a successful mission, Honta said.

“The Russians have stopped and searched me numerous times at checkpoints. It’s quite usual, we got used to things like that. Initially it gave me anxiety but now since I live in that atmosphere all the time, I just do it casually,” he explained. “We don’t carry a lit Molotov cocktail to the car, we mask it, we have our ways and during a search it usually does not cause any suspicions. But if they find this card . . . it will be hard to get away with it.”

‘All Ukrainians have to help’

Honta’s partisans are divided between a smaller group who carry out the most dangerous operations and a wider support base who provide intelligence and burn cars, including 27 in the past month, Khmel said. Occasionally their targets are much bigger, and the results spectacular.

On June 2 in the occupied seaside city of Berdiansk, a man in plain clothes slipped out of his office for a stroll by the sea, a coffee and a cigarette. Spotting an FSB counter surveillance team from the Russian security services parked near the port, he moved along the seafront in the opposite direction. It was a shame he could not see the target he had reported on — a 50 metre-long bulk carrier ship loaded with ammunition — but he had a good view of the port where it was unloading.

He paused and whipped out his phone. His video missed the incoming Storm Shadow cruise missile, but caught its aftermath — an almighty explosion and mushroom cloud. The missile was on target, he reported via the Telegram channel, and left the scene.

Every such action will save soldiers’ lives during the counteroffensive’s main assault, GUR said, appealing for more Ukrainians to join the National Resistance.

“We have a unique moment to collect active people on occupied territories, it has to be now. The counteroffensive isn’t going to be just one week: it will be hard, it will go through autumn,” Khmel said.

“All Ukrainians have to help our soldiers to liberate our country, it’s not the responsibility of some colonels or brigades. It’s the work of all Ukrainians this summer to make the counteroffensive successful.”

The Times & The Sunday Times: breaking news & today's latest headlines

Originally Posted by bsnub

Storm shadow?

No not on the MiG-29, it can't carry the payload. Stormshadow has been fitted to Su-24 and Su-27

Well this was entirely predictable

Ben Wallace’s hopes of being Nato chief ended by row over Ukraine

Joe Biden blocked Defence Secretary because UK pushed ahead with training pilots in F-16s without US approval

Joe Biden blocked Ben Wallace from becoming Nato’s next secretary general after Britain pushed ahead with training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s without the green light from Washington.


The Defence Secretary had been a front-runner to succeed Jens Stoltenberg, the current alliance chief, later this year.


But he failed to secure the support of Washington amid tensions over Britain’s military support for Ukraine.


Rishi Sunak was said to have “lobbied hard” for Mr Wallace to become Nato’s next top official when he met the US president in Washington. Mr Biden later told a news conference the UK had a “very qualified individual” for the job, but stopped short of offering his support.


Mr Wallace led the way in the campaigns to arm Kyiv with modern battle tanks and long-range cruise missiles.


However, Washington was dismayed when Britain announced plans to train Ukrainian pilots and form an international effort to arm them with US-made F-16 jets, without its backing.


An alliance source said the move “ended any remaining hope” the Defence Secretary had of winning over Mr Biden.


Mr Sunak vowed to build an “international coalition” to help procure F-16 aircraft for Ukraine after a meeting with Mark Rutte, his Dutch counterpart, in May.


Downing Street released a press statement announcing London and the Hague “would work to build an international coalition to provide Ukraine with combat air capabilities, supporting with everything from training to procuring F-16 jets”.


A number of European nations had already signed up to the scheme but were hesitant to make it public before securing the full support of Washington.


It was not the first time Britain deliberately announced a big-ticket item for Ukraine in the hope of pressuring Mr Biden to follow suit. The US controls the export licence on F-16s and the White House’s reluctance to send the fighter jets to Kyiv posed a challenge to other nations that operate the aircraft.


Britain is unable to supply Kyiv with F-16s as it does not own any, but Mr Wallace made clear he would support nations wishing to do so.


Pressure on Biden


After months of debate, in May, Mr Wallace said any plan involving the aircraft hinged on Washington, ramping up pressure on Mr Biden. Days later, the US president relented and agreed to let allies train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s and its array of weapon systems.


Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the White House has erred on the side of caution when supplying Kyiv, amid fears Western support could trigger an escalation from Moscow.


US officials have also expressed fears that handing weapons systems to Ukraine could result in secretive technology falling into Russian hands.


On Tuesday, The Telegraph reported Mr Biden is lining up Ursula von der Leyen, the EU’s top official, to replace Jens Stoltenberg as Nato secretary general.


The report came as Mr Stoltenberg’s mandate was extended until October 2024, a similar time to when the former German defence minister’s term ends as the head of the European Commission.

Training Ukraine pilots in F-16s ended Ben Wallace’s hopes of being Nato chief

BAKHMUT AXIS /1810 UTC 6 JUL/ Ukraine broke up RU platoon / company sized offensive operations at Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Hyrhorivka, Khromove & Bohdanivka. On 5 JUL, UKR units were reported to have gained the high ground overlooking the village of Klischvika.

Ukraine is dealing with its corruption head on...

An Odesa businessman has been apprehended after attempting to bribe an employee of Ukraine’s SBU security service to the staggering tune of EUR 90,000, the SBU reported on Facebook on July 8.

The suspect, who serves as the director of a local logistics company, allegedly sought to secure the termination of criminal proceedings that were initiated against him by the SBU regarding a corruption scheme involving the export of agricultural products. If convicted, the businessman faced the prospect of having his assets seized.


"Based on the substantial evidence collected, SBU investigators formally notified the businessman of his suspected involvement in the crime, in accordance with Part 3 of Article 369 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine, which pertains to offering, promising, or providing illegal benefits to a public official," stated the agency.


The accused now faces a potential prison sentence of up to eight years, along with the confiscation of his assets.

Odesa businessman attempts to bribe SBU officer with EUR 90,000

Originally Posted by malmomike77

Well this was entirely predictable

Ben Wallace’s hopes of being Nato chief ended by row over Ukraine

Joe Biden blocked Defence Secretary because UK pushed ahead with training pilots in F-16s without US approval

Joe Biden blocked Ben Wallace from becoming Nato’s next secretary general after Britain pushed ahead with training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s without the green light from Washington.


The Defence Secretary had been a front-runner to succeed Jens Stoltenberg, the current alliance chief, later this year.


But he failed to secure the support of Washington amid tensions over Britain’s military support for Ukraine.


Rishi Sunak was said to have “lobbied hard” for Mr Wallace to become Nato’s next top official when he met the US president in Washington. Mr Biden later told a news conference the UK had a “very qualified individual” for the job, but stopped short of offering his support.


Mr Wallace led the way in the campaigns to arm Kyiv with modern battle tanks and long-range cruise missiles.


However, Washington was dismayed when Britain announced plans to train Ukrainian pilots and form an international effort to arm them with US-made F-16 jets, without its backing.


An alliance source said the move “ended any remaining hope” the Defence Secretary had of winning over Mr Biden.


Mr Sunak vowed to build an “international coalition” to help procure F-16 aircraft for Ukraine after a meeting with Mark Rutte, his Dutch counterpart, in May.


Downing Street released a press statement announcing London and the Hague “would work to build an international coalition to provide Ukraine with combat air capabilities, supporting with everything from training to procuring F-16 jets”.


A number of European nations had already signed up to the scheme but were hesitant to make it public before securing the full support of Washington.


It was not the first time Britain deliberately announced a big-ticket item for Ukraine in the hope of pressuring Mr Biden to follow suit. The US controls the export licence on F-16s and the White House’s reluctance to send the fighter jets to Kyiv posed a challenge to other nations that operate the aircraft.


Britain is unable to supply Kyiv with F-16s as it does not own any, but Mr Wallace made clear he would support nations wishing to do so.


Pressure on Biden


After months of debate, in May, Mr Wallace said any plan involving the aircraft hinged on Washington, ramping up pressure on Mr Biden. Days later, the US president relented and agreed to let allies train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s and its array of weapon systems.


Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the White House has erred on the side of caution when supplying Kyiv, amid fears Western support could trigger an escalation from Moscow.


US officials have also expressed fears that handing weapons systems to Ukraine could result in secretive technology falling into Russian hands.


On Tuesday, The Telegraph reported Mr Biden is lining up Ursula von der Leyen, the EU’s top official, to replace Jens Stoltenberg as Nato secretary general.


The report came as Mr Stoltenberg’s mandate was extended until October 2024, a similar time to when the former German defence minister’s term ends as the head of the European Commission.

Training Ukraine pilots in F-16s ended Ben Wallace’s hopes of being Nato chief

Good on Biden. Piss off one of your best allies. That should work. He is years past his "best before" date. Surely people couldn't vote for him again.

Could it be that Wallace is a bit of a Tory tosser ?

Interactive Time-lapse: Russia's War in Ukraine

This interactive time-lapse complements static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces by showing a dynamic frontline.

Interactive Time-lapse: Russia'''s War in Ukraine

A senior Russian general in Ukraine is dismissed. Here's the latest on the war in Ukraine


A high-profile Russian general in command of forces in occupied southern Ukraine said he was dismissed from his post after accusing the defense ministry of betraying Russian soldiers by not providing sufficient support.


General Ivan Popov was the commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, which has been involved in heavy fighting in the Zaporizhzhia region. He is one of the most senior officers involved in the Russian campaign in Ukraine.


The public resignation or dismissal of such a senior officer amid an open dispute over the conduct of the Russian campaign is unprecedented, according to analysts.

Latest news on Russia'''s war in Ukraine, NATO Summit in Vilnius

^

Lot's more to that story here;

Russian major general Ivan Popov (58th combined arms Air Defense Army) recorded a message saying that he was relieved from duty from his position. Please listen below to the audio; I've added subtitles. He says he is removed for telling the truth to the high command. He complains that they don't have counter-battery capabilities and means of recon. He then accuses the higher command of stabbing them in the back by beheading the army in the most trying times.

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/stat...39805094313987

Click the link to watch the video.

"In war, truth is the first casualty," Aeschylus (525 - 456BC)
"All warfare is based on deception...Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near." Sun Tzu (544 - 496BC)


just sayin' like.

Russia has lost another yet another general thanks to its grinding war against Ukraine, the latest in a string of casualties caused at least in part by President Vladimir Putin’s controversial tactic of sending senior military officials to the frontlines in an attempt to boost flagging morale.

Lieutenant General Oleg Yuryevich Tsokov, who was previously sanctioned by the EU for his “participation in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” was reportedly killed in an overnight missile strike in the city of Berdyansk.

Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to the minister of internal affairs of Ukraine, confirmed the news Tuesday on Twitter.

“Since August 2022 he commanded the 144th motorized rifle division of the 20th combined arms army of the Russian Federation,” Gerashchenko wrote. “He received the rank of lieutenant general in 2023. In addition to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he took part in two Chechen wars and the war in Syria.”

It was reported earlier this year that at least 20 Russian generals had been killed in the conflict already, according to Japanese intelligence figures.

Claims from Ukrainian media that the general was “liquidated” were corroborated by pro-war Russian Telegram channel Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, which claimed that he was killed by Storm Shadow missiles in Berdyansk.

“Colleagues speak of Tsokov as a competent officer and a good commander,” the channel posted in Russian.

According to the Telegram channel of Mariupol Mayor Peter Andryushchenko, the strike was likely an attack on the Duna Hotel, which has been seized by Russian forces to house military leadership.

“Locals report that almost nothing is left of the hotel,” the channel posted in Ukrainian. “Now, fast and heavy equipment are working on the site, dismantling the debris. The territory is surrounded. No one is missed.”

Tsokov was reportedly injured back in September by a Ukrainian artillery attack on his headquarters in Luhansk. He was evacuated to St. Petersburg and treated for a leg wound, but it’s unclear when he returned to Ukraine.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia...missile-strike

I would recomend clicking the link and reading the article on the website. Lots of images and videos.

Now that debate around Ukraine getting F-16s is largely concluded, the questions of where the jets will come from and what weapons will be provided with them loom large.There has been a remarkable amount of precedent already set for transferring advanced weapons to Ukraine that can be used by the F-16.

Weapons delivered to Ukraine so far that would be suitable for the F-16 include:

-AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM). The F-16 will be able to use this weapon far more dynamically and effectively than how it is currently being employed by Ukraine's Soviet-designed tactical aircraft. This will mark a major enhancement in capability and a big threat increase to many Russian air defense systems deployed in occupied areas.

-AIM-120 AMRAAM. The AIM-120 is already in service in Ukraine via its NASAMS air defense systems. They are likely using AIM-120A/Bs, at least for the time being. So giving Ukraine AMRAAM capability on its F-16s is all but a given. This is quite remarkable considering Egypt, one of the world's largest F-16 operators, still is not cleared for AMRAAM, and neither is Iraq, although there are a number of reasons for this beyond technological risk. The big question is if Ukraine will get the more capable AIM-120C variant, which we will discuss in a moment. Our feature on the implications of AMRAAM being approved for NASAMS use in Ukraine can be found here and another on arming Ukraine's existing fighters with AIM-120 here.

-GBU-53/B Small Diameter Bomb (SDB). SDB has already been cleared for use in Ukraine via the Ground-Launched SDB (GLSDB) system, of which the exact status remains unclear. But SDB will be a critical weapon for Ukraine's F-16s due to its accuracy, standoff range, ability to strike semi-hardened static targets, and the large numbers in NATO stockpiles to draw from.

-AIM-9 Sidewinder. Canada is providing AIM-9s to Ukraine. Exactly what variant of AIM-9 this will be is unclear, but they are likely AIM-9Xs for use with the NASAMS air defense system. AIM-9X is now a core munitions capability of NASAMS and would be very effective against short-range, low-flying threats like drones and cruise missiles that are being lobbed by Russia daily. It's also possible these could be older AIM-9L/Ms in Canada's inventory for Ukraine's fighter aircraft, although there has been no word that the Sidewinder is being integrated onto those Soviet-designed jets. With a lack of within visual range air combat, it seems odd this would be a priority at this time.

Other stores, like the HARM Target System (HTS) pod, would be very helpful in detecting, geolocating, and suppressing or destroying Russian anti-aircraft systems. If anything, HTS could provide enhanced situational awareness, but we are unlikely to see it in Ukraine anytime soon. They take additional tactics work to employ in the Wild Weasel role, as well as advanced training, and time is not really a luxury Ukraine has right now, but that could change if the war drags on. There are also technological sensitives that likely go with this system and its digital backbone.

Reconnaissance pods, like the DB110, are another capability that could be useful for Ukrainian F-16s, but once again, the counter-air threat could limit how they are employed at this time.

We will have to wait and see exactly how the F-16 deal for Ukraine pans out, but hopefully, this gives a general overview of what could end up being delivered with those aircraft and what could possibly show up in the future. Of course, it also depends on how long this war lasts. Ukraine would not need these weapons as urgently if hostilities come to an end or even a pause, but being able to protect its sovereign territory from the air is a mission that will exist as long as Ukraine remains an independent nation. And as always, predictions are just that. This conflict has proven that what seems highly unlikely one day can turn into reality on another.

Regardless, the arrival of F-16s will be an important boost to Ukraine's warfighting capability. The weapons received for use with the F-16s will largely dictate their true value in the near term. But the donation of F-16s really represents a bigger investment in the country's long-term security than anything else.

AIM-9X would also provide Ukraine with a very potent short-range air-to-air missile that can also be used with their F-16s' Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing Systems (JHMCS) for high off-boresight (HOBS) engagements. Even if they do not get JHMCS along with their aircraft, which will be capable of using it, the AIM-9X is a major capability for the Vipers and would be very helpful in defending against drones and cruise missiles. You can read all about employing AIM-9X without a helmet-mounted sight here.

-IRIS-T. This short-to-intermediate-range infrared-guided air-to-air missile is highly capable and can take the place of, or even augment the AIM-9X. IRIST-T (also known as AIM-2000) is already in service with Ukraine via the IRIS-T SLM ground-based air defense systems that have proven to be extremely effective against low-flying drones and cruise missiles. It is also capable of short-range HOBS engagement and has a long range for its class, providing it with some beyond-visual-range abilities.

-JDAM-ER/JDAM. Ukraine is already employing JDAM-ERs — JDAMs with range-extending wing kits — against Russian targets. The addition of the F-16 will allow these weapons to be employed much more dynamically than they are now. You can read all about what JDAM-ER brings to Ukraine's fight here.

-Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS). These laser-guided rockets that use the 70mm Hydra as a base offer an incredibly accurate, low-yield solution for targets like vehicles on the move or troops, even those standing in windows or doorways. They are already in service in Ukraine in ground-launched form, with new firing platforms coming soon. Their application via the F-16 would be limited, at least at this time, due to Russia's air defenses near the front lines, though. Morphing battlefield realities could change this in the future. There has also been experimental work done to use them in the air-to-air role against drones and cruise missiles.

-Miniature Air Launched Decoy (MALD). ADM-160s are thought to be in use in Ukraine and maybe being used in coordination with Storm Shadow missile attacks. MALD is fully integrated with the F-16 and it could prove vital to ensuring the success of standoff strikes and for breaking down Russia's anti-air umbrella.

-AIM-7 Sparrow. While certainly far from cutting edge in the domain of air-to-air combat, the Sparrow is still a capable weapon and remains in service with a number of air arms, including Israel. For some targets, it can even have unique advantages, and it could be used against low-flying drones and cruise missiles. Ukraine already is fielding the AIM-7 Sparrow and RIM-7 Sea Sparrow for use on their SA-11 'Buk' mobile air defense systems as the missile stocks for the SAM batteries run dry.

-AGM-84 Harpoon. Ukraine has had ground-launched Harpoon anti-ship missiles for months now. Those weapons have about a 70-mile range, but when you put them on a tactical aircraft that equation changes drastically. F-16s can work as both targeting and delivery platforms for Harpoons, which could greatly complicate Russia's Black Sea Fleet operational calculus.

Beyond these preexisting weapons already in use or soon to be in use with Ukraine, there is no reason why Paveway laser-guided bombs and AGM-65 Maverick air-to-ground missiles could not be provided as well. As noted before, 70mm Hydra rockets would be made available along with the entire Mk 80 series of dumb bombs, including 500-pound Mk 82s, 1,000-pound Mk 83s, and 2,000-pound Mk 84s.

The use of any of these weapons will likely be very limited, at least based on normal battlefield circumstances today. All of them require the launching platform to be in close proximity to its target and some altitude is usually required to employ them under most scenarios, although there are some caveats. At this time, the F-16 would not be highly survivable when in a position to employ them. Once again, this is under most circumstances along the front lines, but there are some tactics that could be employed in certain situations to mitigate these risks. A ground offensive paired with a destruction of enemy air defenses (DEAD) campaign that pushes back Russian forces could possibly provide areas where tactical fixed-wing jets could operate closer to their targets to bring direct fires to bear.

Targeting pods, such as Sniper and LITENING, which can be used to laser designate and/or provide precise coordinates of targets on the ground are also likely to come with Ukraine's F-16s. They can also provide non-traditional reconnaissance and air-to-air detection and long-range visual identification functions, which may be even more valuable depending on the unique threat circumstances near the front lines at the time when they arrive.

AGM-154 Joint Stand-Off Weapon (JSOW) is perhaps the most likely and exciting new advanced weapon Ukraine would receive with its Vipers. It is very well suited for the unique combat environment in Ukraine. It can autonomously glide to its target from over 70 miles away when launched at altitude or over a dozen miles when launched at low altitude. It could be especially useful for target geolocated static/semi-static air defense systems and its imaging infrared sensor it uses for terminal homing is impervious to radio-frequency jamming. It has a very small signature, as well, making it that much harder for Russian air defenses to shoot down.

The Wind-Corrected Munitions Dispenser (WCMD) paired with a sensor-fuzed weapon, otherwise known as the CBU-105, could be devastating to Russian armor on or near the front lines. Due to its limited range, around a dozen miles maximum, employing it will be tricky. Although a range-extending wing kit concept does exist for it that drastically expands its reach, we are not aware of any of those kits being available. Still, WCMD provides some enhanced accuracy over distance and would be extremely valuable if it could be employed without very high risk to its launch platform.

Arguably the most valuable thing the F-16 provides Ukraine is a high-performance aerial platform with a NATO-compatible databus architecture that not only allows it to use most of the weapons in the NATO tactical jet munitions inventory but also the ability to more rapidly integrate new ones. This is something we have highlighted for over a year.

The F-16's standardized databus architecture allows the weapons to 'talk' to the jet and the jet to talk to the weapons, and in doing so, it provides the crew with full functionality of the weapons for maximum employment flexibility. Using workarounds to arm Ukraine's aging Soviet-designed jets with Western weapons has severely limited their feature sets.

This also means new capabilities can be more rapidly integrated in the F-16, which is very important considering the scarcity of certain types of munitions and the need to integrate new solutions to tactical problems quickly as the conditions on the battlefield change.

The F-16's databus also means missiles like Storm Shadow, SCALP-EG, and possibly Taurus, could find their way onto F-16s, although they would be near the limits of what the F-16 can carry in terms of weapons station weight and size. Storm Shadow is already being used by Ukraine via an improvised integration aboard the Su-24 Fencer. The same type of arrangement will likely be used for France's SCALP-EG and Germany's Taurus, if indeed they receive the latter. But it also means that other weapons can be integrated as needed. Brimstone, which Ukraine has been using for quite some time now, is one possible example. Although integrating new munitions is never easy and software alterations and testing take time, we are likely to see new weapons strapped onto Ukrainian F-16s that are currently not being used by the majority of NATO F-16 operators.

All that being said, one could argue the biggest questions about a Ukrainian F-16 fleet's armament surround two weapons in particular — the AIM-120 AMRAAM and the AGM-158 JASSM.

On the AIM-120 side, it comes down to which version Ukraine will get. The A/B variants are already a given, but the AIM-120C is the big unknown.

The AIM-120C is a major enhancement over the weapon's first-generation A/B models, and it comes with various different capabilities, a result of the constant evolution of the sub-variant and the AIM-120 in general. Even in its most basic, first sub-generation form, enhancements in range, guidance, resistance to countermeasures, and more are significant. Considering Ukraine's air force is being haunted by the long-range R-37 air-to-air missile, which Russian aircraft are firing at Ukrainian aircraft at great distances to limit their own risk, giving Ukraine a longer stick — any longer stick — would certainly be prized. It is what Ukraine fighter pilots seem to believe would make the biggest difference, too.

Then there is the F-16's radar. The F-16A/B MLUs, which Ukraine is likely to receive, have extensively upgraded AN/APG-66 pulse-Doppler radars. The F-16C/D models have the even more capable AN/APG-68. So pairing the missile with the radar capability is also important here, and the earlier C variants matched with the AN/APG-66 would be a fine fit. But once again, any active air-to-air missile would be hugely welcome as Ukraine's own fighter pilots have been pleading for them since the war began. Even the AIM-120A/B would be a huge upgrade, especially when paired with the F-16's many other advantages over their Soviet-designed MiG-29s and Su-27s.

There is also the idea being passed around that Ukraine could receive F-16s with upgraded AESA radars. I find this highly unlikely, especially in the near term, due to availability, timeline, and technological risk.

Still, such an upgrade would provide a huge leap in sensor capability for their F-16s and would bring the best out of the AIM-120C and make it that much more effective in Ukraine's challenging combat environment. In fact, the radar would outclass the missile, with the newer and greatly enhanced AIM-120D, or the new AIM-120C-8 variant, or even the AIM-120C-7, being better matched with its capabilities.

Now we come to the biggest wild card of them all — the AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile or JASSM. First introduced into service 20 years ago, this is a high-end, low-observable (stealth), complex, and survivable air-launched cruise missile even in its most dated form. I find it unlikely that these weapons would be transferred to Ukraine based on the technological risk involved in doing so.

The JASSM family is quickly growing, with longer-ranged and more advanced versions already in the inventory (JASSM-ER) and even more capable and longer-reaching ones in the works. The Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) is also a direct, advanced offshoot of JASSM and the U.S. has bet big on it should a major maritime fight come to pass. The idea of these weapons being compromised via landing partially intact behind enemy lines or even espionage is likely too troubling to risk. Even in Syria, they have been used in a country where the U.S. can and does openly operate. The U.S. has no such luxury in occupied parts of Ukraine if a worst-case scenario were to come to pass. Also, the weapon's range is far in excess of Ukraine's needs, although this could potentially be altered.

The missile's high survivability, heavy punch, and imaging infrared terminal targeting sensor with autonomous image-matching make it far less susceptible to GPS jamming and other electronic warfare tactics, which would certainly make it a prized weapon for Ukraine, but I just don't see it happening at this time.

Another key aspect of this is numbers. While there are thousands in the U.S. inventory, JASSMs are prized weapons that would be essential in a fight with China, one in which the target sets will be numbered in the tens of thousands, and standoff weaponry will be critical well beyond the opening days of the conflict. As such, turning them over in any significant numbers to Ukraine would invite risk for the U.S. on the contingency side.

That being said, it's definitely still a possibility. If we have learned anything in this conflict it's that it's unwise to consider any given weapon system is off the table completely.

Even if the U.S. won't provide them, but is willing to approve their use against Russian targets, other NATO members that have given great military support to Ukraine use JASSM — specifically, Finland and Poland. It's possible that a coalition could come together to donate smaller numbers of weapons for especially critical target sets.

If Ukraine were given cruise missiles for their F-16s by the U.S., I believe it will come in the form of a weapon not currently carried by U.S. F-16s — AGM-84H Standoff Land Attack Missile–Expanded Response, better known as SLAM-ER. This is because the USAF lacks an intermediate class of air-launched cruise missiles like SCALP-EG, Taurus, or Storm Shadow. But SLAM-ER could be a great fit for some of Ukraine's needs and these weapons would be coming from U.S. Navy stocks. While this is not a common F-16 weapon by any means, work has already been done to integrate it onto the F-16 for Turkey.

SLAM-ER, one of the most accurate standoff weapons in existence, can be employed in two primary manners. One, autonomously against a known target in a fire-and-forget manner. The missile will navigate on its own to the target and will use image matching to identify it and strike it. This is also a big plus for GPS-degraded combat environments and especially near key targets where GPS jamming is heavy. The other mode includes a 'man-in-the-loop' (MITL) control concept.

A two-way datalink pod on the firing or other aircraft allows the missile to be manually steered to its final impact point after it makes its way autonomously to the target area. This means that instead of a building being hit, the missile can strike a certain window or feature. It also means that it can be re-targeted in real-time and even hit moving targets under some circumstances.

Using an active datalink for MITL control does have some drawbacks, including the need to maintain line-of-sight with the missile during its terminal stage of the attack. This could require the launching and controlling platform to fly at a higher altitude as the weapon can hit targets 170 miles away. This is not a problem for more shallow strikes but could be an issue for ones that want to strike deep into Russian-controlled territory. This could change over time as more ground is retaken and Russia's air defense network gets rolled back. The autonomous mode is also available, regardless. The datalink could also be a vector for an enemy electronic attack response.

South Korea, which is warming to providing Ukraine with deadly weaponry, also has stocks of SLAM-ERs, as they equip its F-15K SLAM Eagles, that could potentially also be leveraged.

There are other standoff weapons that could be donated, although their stockpiles would be more limited if not possibly non-existent. It really depends on what is left in storage or in particular air arms' inventories.

The TV-guided AGM-142 Popeye/Have Nap could also be useful, although it is unlikely that the U.S. still has them lying around in storage as they were retired nearly two decades ago. While much more limited in range — around 50 miles — it could be an effective weapon against targets not too far from the front lines and in highly degraded GPS situations. Turkey does still use these missiles actively and has a stockpile of them. South Korea may as well.

The AGM-130 — a rocket-powered GBU-15 variant — is another such weapon that could provide some standoff capability with a major punch and low technological risk. The AGM-130 was never built in great numbers and was retired from U.S. service a decade ago. If there are still some laying around in storage, it could provide a relevant weapon for Ukraine, even if limited in number, but it may be too big to be carried by F-16s as it was primarily a weapon used by the F-15E and F-111.

There are other standoff weapons that are already integrated onto F-16s but are not in U.S. inventory, such as the UAE's Hakeem missile, that could be useful. The Joint Strike Missile is another great fit for Ukraine, but it is not yet in widespread service and it too is a high-priority weapon for those that are buying it, including the United States.

There is also the possibility of modifying AGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missiles to hit GPS coordinates or certain structures on land with unique and prominent radar signatures, although this is theoretical. Even converting old Harpoons into something similar to an original SLAM missile could be attractive.

But with all that being said, the cold hard truth here is the standoff weapons Ukraine could really use for their F-16s are built by Israel.

From various Spice glide bombs to smaller cruise missiles like Delilah to air-launched ballistic rockets and much more, Israel's indigenous air combat munitions seem almost tailor-built for Ukraine. Israel also has deep stockpiles of many of these weapons and very warm production lines capable of building more. The issue is that Israel will not supply Kyiv with any deadly weaponry as it doesn't want to fracture its fragile relationship with Moscow, which is critical to allowing Israel to operate over Syria in order to strike arms transfers from Iran to militant proxy forces. So, barring a major shift in geopolitical winds, at least for now, that perfect match of capability and availability will remain theoretical only.

Turkey has also drastically expanded its domestic aerial munitions product lines to include a huge array of types, from glide bomb kits much like JDAM-ER to SDB clones to to small cruise missiles and more. Some of these may be available and could be produced in larger quantities, like glide bomb kits, others are quite newer and in development. While the exact efficacy of these systems is not known, they could be a huge help to Ukraine's F-16 fleet, even if just guided glide bombs.

In addition, Turkey provided Ukraine with air-to-ground munitions and drones during the conflict, despite its ongoing relationship with Moscow, so it is possible that we could see some Turkish weapons hanging off the wings of Ukraine's F-16s.

Another major question is what type of electronic warfare capabilities will be given to Ukraine with their F-16s — if any at all. Podded self-protection systems would provide Ukraine with an extra layer of survivability against certain threats. Pods like the AN/ALQ-131 are in service with NATO operators, including those that could transfer aircraft to Ukraine. These systems have no use on F-35s, so giving at least some of them away would make sense. They would be helpful in shrinking the reach — even if to a limited degree — of some of Russia's most troubling anti-air systems and would better allow Ukrainian F-16s to operate at altitude, which would be critical for extending their standoff striking abilities.

Israel, once again, has some of the best pods for exactly this functionality, and a number of them are used by various air arms with remarkable success, including the USAF's own aggressor force. It's possible we could see them appear in Ukraine as they are non-kinetic and oriented for defensive applications. Israel has proved counter-drone electronic warfare systems to Ukraine for instance, but it is still an unlikely source.

Missile approach warning and countermeasure pylons would be of great use to Ukraine, especially in the very restrictive and dangerous counter-air environment their F-16s will operate in. They provide near-spherical coverage that alerts pilots to incoming missiles and are integrated into the jet's countermeasures system to release expendable decoy flares or chaff as needed. They also hold extra expendables. Some come with onboard electronic warfare capabilities as well. These systems are in use by some NATO F-16s operators and could very well end up on Ukrainian Vipers.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-these-weapons

This is the end of ruzzia. First F-16s and now this. I guess we know where those two batteries of Patriot missiles Germany announced at the NATO summit for Ukraine will go...

Rheinmetall will open an armored vehicle plant in Ukraine within the next 12 weeks, shrugging off concerns other Western defense companies reportedly have about building a presence in the country while it is at war with Russia.

Germany’s biggest arms maker will also train Ukrainians to maintain the tanks and other armored vehicles made in the factory, which will be located in the western part of the country, CEO Armin Papperger told CNN in an exclusive interview on Thursday.

“[Ukrainians] have to help themselves — if they always have to wait [for] Europeans or Americans [to] help them over the next 10 or 20 years… that is not possible,” he said.

The company told the Rheinische Post newspaper earlier this year that it hoped to open a €200 million ($218 million) battle tank factory on Ukrainian soil, capable of producing about 400 tanks a year.

Papperger said on Thursday that factory workers would build and repair Rheinmetall’s Fuchs armored personnel carrier — named after the German word for fox — under license in the facility.
Rheinmetall (RNMBF) will operate the plant in partnership with Ukroboronprom, a Ukrainian state-owned defense group, which will also own the facility. In May, the companies announced an agreement to boost Ukraine’s “defense technology capacities.”

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, a close ally of current President Vladimir Putin, has said Russia would retaliate by hitting any facility Rheinmetall set up in Ukraine, Reuters has reported.
Papperger said that the factory could be protected from a Russian attack.

“There are a lot of factories at the moment which are producing military goods [in Ukraine]. It is just another one — and we can protect that also,” he said.

Ukrainian forces have struggled to make major gains in their counteroffensive launched a month ago, in part, because of the Russian army’s air superiority.

For now, Papperger said, sourcing more ammunition was a bigger priority than building more tanks.

Rheinmetall would ramp up its annual production of artillery rounds from 100,000 to 600,000 next year, and much of that extra output would be earmarked for delivery to Ukraine, he said.
In theory, he added, Rheinmetall could provide 60% of the artillery ammunition Ukraine needs.

‘Game changer’

Germany said last week that it plans to spend 2% of gross domestic product on defense starting in 2024, in line with a target NATO has set for all member states. But Papperger said that didn’t go far enough to protect the alliance from a potential Russian attack.

At a minimum, he said, NATO should raise its target to 3% of GDP, adding that Europe would not be ready to defend itself properly in an armed conflict with Russia.

The region has “to invest more and we need some years to fill stocks [of ammunition] because, at the moment, the stocks are empty,” he said.

Last week, German lawmakers provisionally agreed to buy €6 billion ($6.5 billion) worth of ammunition from Rheinmetall, with some of that set aside for Ukraine, Papperger said,
And, whereas Rheinmetall could expect to spend two or three years thrashing out a deal with the government before the war in Ukraine, agreements are now tied up in as little as four months.

“It’s a game changer,” he said.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/...-tank-factory/

400 Leopard 2's a year built in Ukraine.

Originally Posted by bsnub

400 Leopard 2's a year built in Ukraine.

And where is the money to pay for them going to come from? Ukraine must be close to bankruptcy about now?

Originally Posted by bsnub

Rheinmetall will build and repair tanks in Ukraine, says CEO

Worst ever sales pitch to send your product into a situation where they are deemed worthless.

Even ISIS on their camels could smash them up.

Stick to VW, Germany

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

And where is the money to pay for them going to come from?

YOU

and me

Originally Posted by helge

Worst ever sales pitch to send your product into a situation where they are deemed worthless.

More drunken, mindless babbling from one of the forum vatniks.

Originally Posted by bsnub

More drunken, mindless babbling from one of the forum vatniks.

You have a point there

No way that I would ever post sober here.

So you reckon the Leopards are something special ?

?

Originally Posted by helge

So you reckon the Leopards are something special ?

Special? I do not know what you are getting at. They are vastly superior to ruzzian tanks, and to have a factory and repair facility in Ukraine is a big thing.

Originally Posted by bsnub

to have a factory and repair facility on Ukraine is a big thing.

I bow to your logic there

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Russia's economic woes are worsening

They have been worsening for some time.