Thread: Thai elections 2011-Thai PM sets stage for tough election

Yingluck could easily wrap up the undecided vote with a cover version of 'Lady in Red'. A huge nationwde hit i suspect.

She was born to be in the pop business and i'm sure she's probably shared a few songs with her famous brother at functions over the years. Maybe if she wins the election she'll sing 'Celebration'. That would be Kool.

On the Dem's side, Abhisit's version of 'In the army now' probably wouldn't go down so well.

Other options could be a shootout on Soi 1 at high noon. Mind you if Abhisit gets a wee bit upset merely from a few people booing, i wouldn't be expecting an epic performance of Gary Cooper proportions.



Come on you two, we all love a song!

Thaksin faces long journey home

BURNING ISSUE

Thaksin faces long journey home

By Avudh Panananda
The Nation
Published on June 21, 2011

The Bangkok-Dubai flight takes about six hours - but ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra might need at least a year to complete his homecoming journey, provided everything goes according to Pheu Thai's plan.

For the past few weeks, Thaksin has revealed his desire to attend his elder daughter's wedding in December. Even if Pheu Thai wins a landslide victory in the July 3 vote, it will not be able to perform miracles to bring him in from the cold by the year's end.

As a Thai citizen, Thaksin is free to return to his homeland. Instead he has chosen to exile himself and live as a fugitive in Dubai to evade his two-year jail term after his conviction for conflict of interest in 2008.

Under relevant laws, the shortest route for Thaksin to overcome his legal wrangling is to start serving his punishment to pave the way for a royal pardon.

Should he decide to end his life on the run and go to jail, legal precedents have shown that pardon could be granted in a mere month or two. If he activates his pardon process soon after the inauguration of the Pheu Thai-led government, he could win his freedom with plenty of time to spare before his daughter's wedding.

He has refused, however, to seek a pardon. Under two successive governments, those of Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawt, he could have served his imprisonment sentence but didn't.

Judging from his remarks, he cannot accept what he sees as injustice inflicted by the 2006 coup. He perceives himself as a victim deprived of due process.

Since he views his conviction and sentencing as unjust, it is inconceivable for him to show remorse for a crime he believes did not commit. He appears unwilling to comply with a mandatory first step in seeking a pardon - to repent for his graft violations.

An option still left open and unexplored is to whitewash himself via amnesty.

A cascade of events since 2005 have compounded the social divisions in Thailand and the public is being misled into believing there could be a blanket amnesty applicable to all key players, including Thaksin.

Incidents and circumstances must be sorted out before a legal remedy can be concocted for each specific case. Thaksin's predicament goes beyond the problems faced by others.

An act of Parliament or an executive decree sanctioned by Parliament might suffice to end all court battles in connection with street protests led by the red and yellow shirts.

To rescue Thaksin, his amnesty must touch on the amending of Article 309 of the Constitution. This charter provision sanctions actions and measures undertaken by the coup leaders, such as the formation of the Assets Examination Committee, the agency in charge of prosecuting Thaksin.

Legal pundits in the pro- and anti-Thaksin camps have agreed that in the Thaksin case, Article 309 should be rewritten to negate the prosecution mandate as grounds for the wrongful seizure of power.

The unanswered question is how to amend the country's highest law without appearing to benefit just one man. Furthermore, the best legal minds in the pro-Thaksin camp have yet to form a consensus on the extent to which Article 309 must be rewritten before Pheu Thai could start pushing for amnesty.

Once Pheu Thai has a firm idea about the shape and form of amnesty designed for Thaksin, House and Senate deliberations will take no less than five months. Then the Constitution Court would have to rule on its constitutionality. Thaksin would be lucky if he could return by next year.

July 3 election seems to be very much a family affair

July 3 election seems to be very much a family affair

By Kornchanok Raksaseri
The Nation
Published on June 21, 2011

Though a lot of new candidates in the July 3 election have familiar surnames, they still have to depend very much on themselves to win the hearts of voters.

"Obviously, a father must help his daughter, but voters won't accept her if she doesn't prove herself," said Boontida Somchai, who is running under the Democrat banner in Ubon Ratchathani's Constituency 8 in place of her father Issara, who is a party-list candidate.

In Ang Thong, Korrawee Prissananantakul, son of Chart Thai Pattana Party's adviser Somsak, is running for Constituency 2 in place of his younger brother Pakin, who quit politics to further his studies. His older brother Paradorn is running in the province's Constituency 1.

"An MP position cannot be inherited, and it depends very much on the voters as to who becomes an MP," he said, adding that he wanted to contest an election a long time ago, but was not the member of a political party as required by law.

Korrawee started visiting constituents after Somsak was disqualified due to the dissolution of Chart Thai Party in 2008.

In comparison though, Pheu Thai's Wan Yoobamrung - who is running for a seat in Bangkok's Constituency 28 against Democrat Samart Muangsiri - is confident his father's popularity will help him win votes. "The Election Commission has designated me a constituency in Bang Bon and Nong Khaem, where most of the voters are supporters of my father and the Yoobamrung family," he said.

Wan's assistant added yesterday that the politician was maintaining his main strategy of "meeting as many people as possible".

Meanwhile, Surachart Thienthong, son of veteran politician Snoh, is trying his best to win votes in Bangkok's Don Muang Constituency 11 under the Pheu Thai Party.

Nutt Bantadtan, son of Democrat adviser Banyat, is wooing voters in Bangkok's Constituency 15, while Akanat Promphan, stepson of the party's secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban, is running in the capital's Constituency 29.

Jirawat Siripanich, son of veteran politician Prayut, is contesting under the Pheu Thai banner in Maha Sarakham's Constituency 4. Democrat's Kriangkrai Tharapoom, son of the late Democrat MP Nipon, is running in Lop Buri, while Sucheen Engchuan is trying his luck at his father's stronghold of Krabi.

Peeradej Siriwansant, Chart Thai Pattana's MP candidate for Nakhon Sawan's Constituency 4, who was first elected as MP in 2007, does not believe that being the son of an established politician is that big a deal.

"My father had achieved a lot as an MP and minister. The older generation might remember his work, but now that I am an MP myself, people want me to prove myself," he said referring to his father Dhiravat, who won the MP seat four times.

Many children or relatives of politicians seem to be running as party-list candidates, especially in the case of the Pheu Thai Party, but none seem to be doing anything too outstanding. Instead, many are actually just trying to inherit their parents' MP status, counting on the fact their chance of winning votes depends very much on the party's popularity.

The July 3 election might be a good chance for newcomers, but if they are really serious about making a mark in politics, they have to work really hard to prove that they are not just representing veteran politicians or trying to cash in on their parents' popularity.

Yingluck denies seeking meeting with Prem

Yingluck denies seeking meeting with Prem

By The Nation
Published on June 21, 2011

Pheu Thai candidate Yingluck Shinawatra has denied speculation about her request to meet chief royal adviser General Prem Tinsulanonda, blaming reporters for posing a leading question.

"I didn't seek the meeting although I would welcome an opportunity to seek advice from Prem," she clarified yesterday.

Yingluck said if elected to lead the next government, she would solicit the guidance and support of senior figures, including Prem.

In earlier remarks, she also said she wanted to meet the military leaders in a bid to bring about reconciliation.

Reacting to Yingluck's remarks, Chart Thai Pattana adviser Sanan Kachornprasart said he viewed it as a good thing if the Yingluck-Prem meeting happened.

Sanan said Yingluck could act on former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's behalf and that he saw talks as a way to mend fence.

He said he would today unveil his planned steps for fostering reconciliation.

Yingluck celebrates her 44th birthday today. She plans to give alms in the morning to Buddhist monks at her Bangkok residence before resuming her afternoon campaign activities in Nakhon Pathom.

Shun violence, say business sector, media

Shun violence, say business sector, media

By Siriporn Chanjindamanee
The Nation
Published on June 21, 2011


Five business organisations and two media associations yesterday called on all parties to desist from violence after the election and work towards reconciliation.

With the July 3 election less than two weeks away and politicians running intense campaigns, concerns have been raised about the possibility of violence after the election.

They issued a joint statement calling for a commitment by politicians to respect the election results and prevent any more violence in society. Ambassadors and envoys from many countries joined the press conference titled "Approaching Reconciliation by Overcoming Violence."

The five business organisations were: the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisations, the Thai Bankers' Association, the Thai Chamber of Commerce, the Federation of Thai Industries, Tourism Council of Thailand, while the two media organisations were Thai Journalist Association and Thai Broadcast Journalists Association.

Charamporn Jotikasthira, president of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, a representative from the Thai Capital Market Organisations, said that political division had played a large part in eroding investor confidence in the Thai stock market. He said that in one month during the strife-torn month of May last year, foreign investors' net-sell of Thai shares was valued at Bt60 billion. He warned if this continued, investors would shift their investments to other markets.

"The violence last year killed the Thai capital market's immunity. We must come out to fight against possible violence. If all parties want to recreate confidence and proceed with reconciliation, there must be no more violence," he said.

Foreign investors have shown signs of a loss of confidence, as in the past three weeks their net sales topped Bt20 billion. Some brokerage houses also underweighted Thai stocks on political concerns.

"New violence could cause even more damage if we take into account that foreign investors' net sell in the Thai bourse within one month last year was Bt60 billion," he said.

He said opinion surveys pointed to a high likelihood of post-election violence. This is a grave cause for concern as political tension in the past 5-6 years have caused huge damage to the economy and investor confidence, which have affected people from all walks of life. He said that though political parties have vowed to bring about reconciliation, there is no concrete proposal yet.

"Businesses have been worried. There are attempts to call for justice for some groups. We are following the situation closely and find that as it gets closer to the election, the more worrisome the situation is becoming," said Tawachai Yongkittikul, secretary-general of Thai Bankers' Association.

"The media are doing their duty as a watchdog, and warning of possible violence after the election," president of the Thai Broadcast Journalists Association, Visoot Komwachara-pong, said. "We don't want to see journalists taking risks on a battlefield. We don't want to see journalists from around the world covering the fight among Thais."

Visoot said the group would talk to more agencies that understand and agree that we need to join hands to solve the problems.

Kriangkrai Teeranokul, deputy secretary-general of the Federation of Thai Industries, said, "Unless we can overcome violence, foreign investors will overlook our country and choose to invest somewhere else."

Piyaman Techapaiboon, chairman of the Tourist Council of Thailand, said Thailand's tourism industry has very high potential. It can expect up to Bt1 trillion income from tourists. However, political turmoil might hit it hard as in the past.

"Even one line in a news report can affect tourism. I am begging all parties to help avoid violence so that Thailand can be the same, bring back the smiles," Piyaman said.

"Unless you take action, you'll have to take the blame as you have volunteered to solve the country's problems," chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Dusit Nontanakorn said in his appeal to politicians.

The organisations jointly released a statement amid expectations of post-election violence. In the statement, the seven organisations came up with three proposals:

1 All political parties as well as political groups must accept the election result, and avoid taking any action that could lead to violence.

2 All political parties must be committed to engage in the process of reducing violence and bring about reconciliation. It must be a public agreement that the process is an urgent item on the agenda.

3 The process of reconciliation must be guided by an independent organisation that is not part of the conflict, through proper and fair means.

The Pheu Thai Party yesterday issued a statement in response thanking the group for their comments. The party said it agreed with all the points and viewed them as constructive. It said the proposals were also in line with the party's stance and policy to move on from disputes and bring peace to Thailand through reconciliation.

It also affirmed that if it formed the next government, it would follow the guidelines and aim to create reconciliation in Thailand soon.

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

This planking craze is really getting out of hand.

Bangkok Post : Feeling 'bruised all over'

Feeling 'bruised all over'

• Published: 21/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

With the election less than two weeks away and several polls suggesting Pheu Thai has a clear lead, many might imagine Prime Minister and Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva would be feeling the pressure.

However, in an interview with the Bangkok Post, the PM showed his dry, English-style sense of humour remains intact even in the midst of a gruelling election campaign.

What is it like on the campaign trail?

I am bruised all over. My hands have gone tender. I even have men giving me a friendly peck on the cheek. I have had four men doing so actually.

Today is Yingluck's birthday, would you like to say something to her?

[Long pause] Happy birthday.

You look considerably more tanned after the electioneering started. Have you been using the high-end, La Mer skin products as rumoured?

I don't use it regularly. Sometimes, it's used on me when I need make-up or go on TV. Some people also send it to me.

Nobody from the Democrat Party is eating the red watermelon. Why? [Red and yellow watermelon was served at the interview].

I can't resist taeng mo [the Thai word for watermelon, also the nickname of Mr Abhisit's wife, Dr Pimpen] but I am not afraid of the red.

Candidates in the race seem to be trying to outdo each other with unusual activities during the campaign. Have you thought about responding to Chuwit [Kamolvisit] upping the ante with his planking pose?

I actually thought about it, especially on the day I was campaigning in Prachin Buri [last Friday]. It was so hot that I thought it would be nice if I could lie down right there [on the open-top campaign bus], but I was afraid I might fall down.

I even thought I could still make a "number 10" sign with my hands during the planking pose [the Democrat Party is No.10 on the ballot paper]. Planking only asks that your arms are level with the body, but not your hands, right?

How many marks out of 10 would you give yourself as prime minister?

I won't. Besides, I won't talk about any number that is above 10 right now.

Bangkok Post : Majority vital, says PM

Majority vital, says PM

Democrats need to rule 'without limitations'

• Published: 21/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva admits his first term in office ''faced tight limitations'', but with a majority of 250 plus seats from the election the Democrats would be unencumbered in enforcing their entire range of policies.


Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva smiles during his visit to the office of the Bangkok Post for a special interview. KOSOL NAKACHOL

Mr Abhisit appealed to voters to give the Democrat Party a mandate to form a majority government.

If they do, he assured they will get everything the party has promised them.

Mr Abhisit said in a special interview with the Bangkok Post it will be in the Thais' best interest to vote for the Democrats in the general election and give it the 250 House seats the party needs to form a majority government.

''I will make a lot of changes and the people will get what they want from the Abhisit government,'' Mr Abhisit said.

He said his administration in its first term had to work within tight limitations.

During the past two years, the government had faced constraints as a result of the economic crisis and had to spend the two years addressing economic disparities and social inequalities before the situation had eased, he said.

Mr Abhisit said political factors _ including the riots over the past two years _ had also constrained the government from working efficiently.

The party needed an overwhelming majority so it could work more efficiently, he said.

Mr Abhisit admitted that opinion polls appeared to be in favour of Pheu Thai. ''Things appear to be moving in that direction,'' he said.

A Suan Dusit poll last week showed the Democrat Party's popularity ratings were trailing behind the Pheu Thai Party in all regions and even in Bangkok except in the South, the Democrats' stronghold.

However, Mr Abhisit called into question the figures by the Suan Dusit poll that indicated Pheu Thai were ahead of the Democrats by 51% to 34%.

He said a poll conducted by the Democrat Party showed the party was behind by no more than 20 seats.

The figures released by various poll agencies remained ''volatile'', Mr Abhisit said. He said Bangkok voters are still hard to predict and they are assessing the situation during the remaining 13 days ahead of the election before making their final decision as to who they will vote for. The actual figures on July 3 will be the most decisive, Mr Abhisit said.

Mr Abhisit also urged Yingluck Shinawatra, Pheu Thai's top party list candidate, to stop the red shirt supporters from disrupting other parties' election campaigning.

''Today I got an answer from Ms Yingluck that she cannot order the red shirts, which is worrying. If Pheu Thai becomes the government, will it allow the red shirts to determine its direction?'' Mr Abhisit said.

Mr Abhisit said Pheu Thai, the red shirts, Ms Yingluck and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra cannot be separated, but now it is obvious that the red shirts are such a dominant force that Ms Yingluck cannot give them orders.

Mr Abhisit said Thais will prove that they will not give in to threats.

''If the 46 billion baht is given back to Thaksin [if Pheu Thai becomes the government] and all the problems come to an end, so be it. But I believe things won't actually end up that way,'' Mr Abhisit said. ''Things may end in Part [One], but there could be more sequels in the future.''

However, if the Democrat Party is in opposition after the election, it will continue to oppose a move to grant amnesty to Thaksin, Mr Abhisit said, adding that the party's approach to the issue will be through parliament, not street protests.

Mr Abhisit said if the Democrat Party returns to power as the government, he would ask all the independent committees set up by his government to continue with their work. The committees include the Truth for Reconciliation Commission headed by Kanit na Nakorn, the National Reform Committee chaired by former prime minister Anand Panyarachun and the National Reform Assembly headed by social critic Prawase Wasi.

These panels have come up with key proposals, including reforming the power structure in Thai society, which is a significant issue, Mr Abhisit said.

He also said if he is voted into office for a second term, he will continue with measures to solve the economic problems and tackle drug trafficking problems.

Bangkok Post : Rallying at Ratchaprasong

EDITORIAL

Rallying at Ratchaprasong

• Published: 21/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

It is either clever or insidious to hold a big election rally at Ratchaprasong intersection in Bangkok. Which means there are possible benefits but also likely drawbacks to the Democrat Party's decision to stage its first-ever rally that will block city streets, on Thursday.



Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who will of course be the main speaker, said he will lay out the party's plan for national reconciliation at the dramatic location.

The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship sees the rally as a provocation, a cheap political trick to try to rouse sentiment against the red shirts for last year's deadly street violence.

It is inevitable that in a political context, even the very name of Ratchaprasong drags up mostly unpleasant thoughts. In 2006, it was the centre of several marches by the yellow shirts of the People's Alliance for Democracy. But it was last year that is mostly remembered, when the Ratchaprasong area was simply occupied and shut down by the red shirts.

The economic damage of the April-May 2010 shutdown of Ratchaprasong business was staggering. But even that cost was dwarfed by the terrible killings that accompanied the government's decision to clear the UDD demonstrations.

Nearly a hundred people died, most of them civilians. Plush shopping malls were burnt, most notably the prominent CentralWorld. The rebuilt store will form the main background prop for Mr Abhisit when he speaks at the rally on Thursday.

There is little doubt that Mr Abhisit wants to have his campaign cake and eat it too. He and other prominent Democrats have hit hard at why voters should not reward the red shirts, as personified by the Pheu Thai Party. The message is clear: Don't vote for those who burned the city. But the prime minister also has carried his message of reconciliation. No doubt the country will be listening on Thursday to see just what tone he takes.

One of the main and valid criticisms of Mr Abhisit's approach to national reconciliation is that he has expressed no regret or apology for the deaths of scores of red shirts last year. That in turn has caused some bitterness among UDD supporters, who claim there has been no justice for the killings.

There seems little reason for optimism. Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban has vowed to take the stage on Thursday and "tell the truth about what really happened" to spark last year's violence.

Pheu Thai spokesman Prompong Nopparit has complained that using Ratchaprasong as the venue of a campaign rally is "inappropriate".

One hopes, then, for a surprise on Thursday. Perhaps the prime minister can detail some new, start-from-scratch approach to reconciliation. So far, nothing has worked. Mr Abhisit and others have given little if any support to the "truth and justice" committees set up by the government.

Trying red shirt activists as terrorists is embarrassing - and in any case no trials have taken place. The stonewalling by security forces on giving information about the killings is a direct slap to the government and justice.

The Democrats on Thursday will be the third important group to use Ratchaprasong for political reasons. For that reason alone, it is necessary that they come up with important new policies.

If Mr Abhisit and his fellow politicians merely use the rally to attack Pheu Thai through the red shirts, it would be a major opportunity wasted.

Originally Posted by Calgary

Did you have a husband, brother, son killed by the military? To denigrate those who have is truly despicable.

I had a friend killed by cops in the WOD, shot in the head. Another friend's brother was found dead with his hands tied behind his back, this is in Chiang Rai, he was hill tribe and outspoken about injustices.

The army is brutal no doubt, but the coppers score much higher on the body count. Funny how their injustices get scant attention from the reds. Is it because their boss is an ex-cop?

Originally Posted by Buksida

The army is brutal no doubt, but the coppers score much higher on the body count. Funny how their injustices get scant attention from the reds. Is it because their boss is an ex-cop?

no, it's because Calgary and friends are little nazi wannabees and will support anyone with their fascist agenda

Prayuth: Nothing to say to Thaksin

Prayuth: Nothing to say to Thaksin

Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha on Tuesday ruled out talks with ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, saying the military had no mandate to rescue him from his legal issues.

"There is nothing to clear between the military and Thaksin," he said in reference to Thaksin's offer for talks.

Prayuth said if Thaksin wanted to return to his homeland, he could do so by facing up to his conviction and imprisonment.

The Nation

Bangkok Post : PM: Yingluck should show clear stance

PM: Yingluck should show clear stance

• Published: 21/06/2011 at 11:05 AM
• Online news: Local News

Prime Minister and Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva on Tuesday called on Yingluck Shinawatra, top list candidate of the Pheu Thai Party, to show her clear stance whether or not she support the red-shirt people group.

Mr Abhisit was responding to Ms Yingluck’s remark that she could not control the red-shirt supporters of the United front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) to stop obstructing the Democrats’ election campaigns.

“Ms Yingluck should show to the public whether she supports such actions by the red-shirts,” he said.

The Democrat leader insisted that he is ready to talk to relatives of the six red-shirt protesters shot dead in Wat Pathumwanaram last May who would attend the planned major campaign for votes by the ruling party at Ratchaprasong intersection on Thursday, June 23.

Mr Abhisit is now campaigning in Narathiwat and also plans to later campaign in Yala and Patani.

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Prime Minister and Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva on Tuesday called on Yingluck Shinawatra, top list candidate of the Pheu Thai Party, to show her clear stance whether or not she support the red-shirt people group.

Glass houses Abby , how's ya foreign minister these days

^^ He's really keeping on about this Yingluck-red shirt link.....in preparation for the rally I presume, where they are saying they will reveal information.

This grabbed my attention;

"The Democrat leader insisted that he is ready to talk to relatives of the six red-shirt protesters shot dead in Wat Pathumwanaram last May who would attend the planned major campaign for votes by the ruling party at Ratchaprasong intersection on Thursday, June 23."

Interesting move.

I am surprised the relatives of the dead are going to attend this.

Thai-ASEAN News Network

Police Ready for Democrat Speech Downtown

UPDATE : 21 June 2011

City police says it's prepared for the Democrat Party's poll speech scheduled for Thursday at Ratprasong intersection.

Senior Police Advisor, Police General Ponsapat Pongcharoen stated that the Metropolitan Police Bureau has been instructed to formulate security measures for the Democrat Party's speech it's planning to give downtown on June 23.

Security will cover a number of details such as the location for the stage, traffic management, checkpoint installation, and even a talk with the red-shirt group.


Meanwhile, the senior advisor added that police will coordinate with the Election Commission to deal with voters who will attend the advance poll on June 26.

He said police will help in various matters such as voters who show up late, a traffic plan, security measures for people's valuables, and unused ballot protection.

The police general expects Bangkok's Bangkapi District and Chonburi's Banglamung will likely see a high turnout.

More than 60 percent of ballots have been sent out to poll stations nationwide.

Six million ballots in Bangkok have been sent and 65 million tickets in the provinces have been distributed, while 39 million ballots are still to be transported this week.

Police Spokesperson, Police Major General Prawut Tawonsiri disclosed that security officers will keep a close watch on risky constituencies across the nation, as there could be some intensified violence against political party canvassers ahead of the poll.

He added that MP candidates have called for special protection from police officers, and some 370 policemen have been deployed to protect the candidates.

From the blog world.....


Are the Thai third parties in trouble? | Asian Correspondent

By Bangkok Pundit
Jun 21, 2011

In a previous post which partly critique the view of The Nation‘s Avudh who stated that the small parties, notably Chart Thai Pattana, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin and Bhum Jai Thai would win 45 of the 125 party vote. In response, BP wrote:

BP’s ‘complaint’ is the undervaluing of the two major parties. As we saw with the 2007 General Election and we are seeing with all polls now, it is the two major parties who are dominating the party vote yet Avudh views they will win only 80 out of the 125 party list seats and the smaller parties will win 45 seats. Really? This means those parties will need to poll around 35% of the party vote together. That ain’t happening.

Now, for constituencies the medium-sized parties of Chart Thai Pattana, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin and Bhum Jai Thai will do well in certain provinces, but there is no indication that people will cast their party vote for them in large numbers. BP views the smaller and medium-sized parties will win 20-25 seats.

In addition, in this post, BP predicted that the smaller parties would win only 90 seats between them with the remaining 410 being won by Puea Thai and the Democrats with Chat Thai Pattana winning 25-30 seats. Now, the Bangkok Post has Chat Thai Pattana lowering their estimates:

The Chartthaipattana Party has significantly lowered its target of between 30 and 35 MPs, admitting it cannot compete with Pheu Thai’s popularity in the Northeast.

Estimated support had fallen by 5% to 10%, said party leader Chumpol Silpa-archa, admitting that in Pheu Thai’s Isan stronghold only the party’s candidate in Ubon Ratchathani, Tun Chittawet, still had a good chance to snatch victory.

Most constituency seats would come from Chartthaipattana’s traditional political base in Suphan Buri and nearby provinces in the Central Region, he said, but did not give a figure.

Post Today‘s article in Thai has some direct quotes and those direct quotes make it easier to understand:

[i]“From the situation that has occurred, the party has had to lower the goals of MPs by 5-10% especially for the party vote because now we are even losing to Chuwit….In the current situation, if we get 30 seats from both [constituency and party list] systems then that would be fortunate. don’t know where the trend/momentum comes from. It is strange. For Srisaket, [we] had high goals, but [now] we have the right to be concerned. Surin is concerning. In the Northeast, there is only… candidate in Ubon Ratachathani, a sole candiate” said Chumpol (“จากสถานการณ์ที่เกิดขึ้นทำให้พรรคต้องปรับเป้าหมาย สส.ลดลง5-10% โดยเฉพาะระบบบัญชีรายชื่อเพราะตอนนี้ยังแพ้นายชูวิทย ์ กมลวิศิษฎ์ ผู้สมัครสส.ระบบบัญชีรายชื่อพรรครักประเทศไทยเล ย ถ้าเป็นสถานการณ์ตอนนี้ได้ 30 ที่นั่งรวมทั้งสองระบบก็บุญแล้ว ไม่รู้ว่ากระแสมันมายังไง แปลกจริงๆ ขนาดศรีสะเกษตั้งเป้าไว้เต็มที่ก็ยังมีสิทธิ์น่าเป็น ห่วง สุรินทร์ก็น่าเป็นห่วง อีสานคงเหลือแค่นายตุ่น จิตตะเวช ผู้สมัครสส. อุบลราชธานี คนเดียว”นายชุมพล กล่าว)

BP: Now, unlike in many western countries where political parties will, at times, try to lower expectations by understating their chances and then later in a campaign point to better polls numbers suggesting they have “The Big Mo“, this is not the case in Thailand. It is rare for politicians to deliberately lower expectations and understate their chances. Their actions and through leaks we may be able to determine what their own internal numbers show, but publicly they will still be spinning the same numbers. Now, Chumpol is saying they will be happy to gett to 30. CTP are lucky that they have a solid support base in and around Suphan Buri so they have a core support, but based on what Chumpol is saying 23-25 seats seems more likely for Chat Thai Pattana now. With Bhum Jai Thai also not doing so well in the polls, the minor parties may win only 80 seats….

From the blog world (though note the writer is an editor at The Nation).....


Suthichai Yoon's personal journal: Abhisit admits the margin of defeat is widening

Tuesday, June 21, 2011





Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said last month that the difference between the number of seats to be won by his party and Pheu Thai woul be "around 4 to 5."

Yesterday, he told Post Today that the margin could be 20.

That suggests that, less than two weeks before Election Day,is conceding that his party's slide in popularity is worsening, if all the polls so far are to be believed.

That perhaps explains why the Democrats are pulling out all the stops to launch their last-minute tactics, including the big rally at Ratchaprasong Intersection this Thursday, to narrow the margin of defeat.

Pheau Thai's Yingluck Shinawatra isn't responding to his challenge. She has despatched Pheu Thai's nominal head, Yongyudh Vichaidith, to the debate organized by PNet this Thursday, to face Abhisit.

There won't be a Yingluck-Abhisit public face-off after all.

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Abhisit will take the stage with Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban, according to party member Ong-art Klampaiboon. Former prime minister Chuan Leekpai, the Democrat chief adviser, will also take the stage at Ratchaprasong to help Abhisit and Suthep highlight the links between ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the red shirts, a party source said. Suthep will highlight the role of the red shirts in the arson attack on CentralWorld, the source said.

Showing their true colours through desperation to hang on to power at any cost; nice lot of democrates these that are desperate to incite violence in a country on the brink... utter scumbags, imho...

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

EDITORIAL Rallying at Ratchaprasong

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

If Mr Abhisit and his fellow politicians merely use the rally to attack Pheu Thai through the red shirts, it would be a major opportunity wasted.

^ However, the other side of the argument is that if they do actually have factual evidence to back up their claims, then they need to be aired.

But then again, the obvious response to that is why didn't they reveal this before? They've had a year to show their side of the story and they haven't.

It will be interesting to see if the Dem's are able to supply any facts about what happened last year, as during the censure debate they didn't have anything of real substance.